Economic risk maps of floods and earthquakes for European regions

Europe experiences different natural hazards and subsequent risks that have various effects on the development of its regions. The spatial significance of hazards can be expressed as an economic risk when combining hazard potential with vulnerability data. Two examples of European natural hazard maps on floods and earthquakes, as well as the resulting risk profiles of regions (combination of hazard potential and vulnerability) give a first impression on the spatial characters of hazards in Europe and their potential impact on further spatial development. The economic risk maps enable a view on the spatial dimension of the economic damage potential of flood and earthquakes, pointing out comparable situations across Europe with the aim to facilitate targeted responses and policies. The spatial character of a hazard is either defined by spatial effects that might occur in case of a disaster or by the possibility of spatial planning responses. The integration of the economic vulnerability of a region (regional GDP per capita, population density) leads to a classification of areas according to their economic risk or damage potential towards hazards. These synthetic risk profiles are presented as risk maps of European regions in administrative boundaries. Obtained information can be of interest for spatial planning and development strategies, e.g. economic risk profile of regions can influence the targets of investments and could thus be an important background for structural funding.     

Putting adaptive capacity into the context of people’s lives: a case study of two flood-prone communities in Puerto Rico

Recent developments in the vulnerability literature have contested the use of technical solutions as the sole adaptive strategies to reduce natural hazard impact; this literature emphasizes the need to attend to the wider everyday risks to which people are exposed and that aggravate hazard vulnerability. Using a case study of two flood-prone communities in Puerto Rico, this article supports and enhances that literature by placing floods within a wider context of other risks and determining how everyday risks influence people’s perceptions of and capacity to adapt to floods. Participatory methods are used to elicit the everyday risks that concern community members. The analysis reveals that participants perceive floods as one of their risks, but they see them as neither the most important nor most severe risk in their lives. Instead, they find other concerns—health conditions, family well-being, economic factors, and land tenure—more pressing. These competing risks limit adaptive capacity and increase vulnerability to natural hazards. The results suggest that addressing these multiple risks, mainstreaming flood management and adaptation into the wider context of people’s general well being, and increasing risk perception will strengthen adaptive capacity to present and future floods.     

The relevance of flood hazards and impacts in Turkey: What can be learned from different disaster loss databases?

Turkey has been severely affected by many natural hazards, in particular earthquakes and floods. Especially over the last two decades, these natural hazards have caused enormous human and economic damage. Although there is a large body of literature on earthquake hazards and risks in Turkey, comparatively little is known about flood hazards and risks. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the severity of flooding in comparison with other natural hazards in Turkey and to analyse the flood patterns by providing an overview of the temporal and spatial distribution of flood losses. These will act as a metric for the societal and economic impacts of flood hazards in Turkey. For this purpose, Turkey Disaster Database (TABB) was used for the years 1960–2014. As input for more detailed event analyses, the most severe flood events in Turkey for the same time interval will also be retrieved. Sufficiency of the TABB database to achieve the main aim of the study in terms of data quality and accuracy was also discussed. The TABB database was analysed and reviewed through comparison, mainly with the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), the Global Active Archive of Large Flood Events—Dartmouth Flood Observatory database, news archives and the scientific literature, with a focus on listing the most severe flood event. The comparative review of these data sources reveals big mismatches in the flood data, i.e. the reported number of events, number of affected people and economic loss all differ dramatically. Owing to the fact that the TABB is the only disaster loss database for Turkey, it is important to explore the reasons for the mismatches between TABB and the other sources with regard to aspects of accuracy and data quality. Therefore, biases and fallacies in the TABB loss data are also discussed. The comparative TABB database analyses show that large mismatches between global and national databases can occur. Current global and national databases for monitoring losses from national hazards suffer from a number of limitations, which in turn could lead to misinterpretations of the loss data. Since loss data collection is gaining more and more attention, e.g. in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, this study offers a framework for developing guidelines for the Turkey Disaster Database (TABB), implications on how to standardize national loss databases and implement across the other hazard events in Turkey.     

Comparative Risk Assessments for the City of Cologne – Storms, Floods, Earthquakes

In this paper a methodology for a multi-risk assessment of an urban area is introduced and performed for the city of Cologne, Germany, considering the natural hazards windstorm, flooding and earthquake. Moreover, sources of the uncertainty in the analysis and future needs for research are identified. For each peril the following analyses were undertaken: hazard assessment, vulnerability assessment and estimation of losses. To compare the three hazard types on a consistent basis, a common economic assessment of exposed assets was developed. This was used to calculate direct economic losses to buildings and their contents. The perils were compared by risk curves showing the exceedence probability of the estimated losses. In Cologne, most of the losses that occur frequently are due to floods and windstorms. For lower return periods (10–200 years) the risk is dominated by floods. For return periods of more than 200 years the highest damage is caused by earthquakes.     

Integrated risk assessment of multi-hazards in China

Maps of population exposure, vulnerability and risk to natural hazards are useful tools for designing and implementing disaster risk mitigation programs in China. The ranking of provinces by relative risk to natural hazards would provide a metric for prioritizing risk management strategies. Using provinces as our study unit, from the perspectives of hazard exposure, susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacity, this study first constructed China’s disaster risk index for five types of major natural hazards: earthquakes, floods, droughts, low temperatures/snow and gale/hail. Then, the relative risk level at the provincial scale in China was assessed. Finally, the hotspots with the highest hazard exposure, vulnerability and risk were identified. The results showed that high exposure was a significant risk driver in China, whereas high vulnerability, especially social vulnerability, amplified the risk levels. Similar to the population exposure to disasters, the relative risk levels in the southwestern, central and northeastern regions of China were significantly higher than those in the eastern, northern and western regions. The high-risk regions or hotspots of multi-hazards were concentrated in southern China (less-developed regions), while the low-risk regions were mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas (well-developed regions). Furthermore, a nonlinear relationship existed between the disaster risk level and poverty incidence as well as per capita GDP, demonstrating that disaster losses in middle-income areas are likely to increase if economic policies are not modified to account for the rising disaster risk. These findings further indicated that research on disaster risk should focus not only on hazards and exposure but also on the vulnerability to natural disasters. Thus, reducing vulnerability and population exposure to natural hazards would be an effective measure in mitigating the disaster risk at hotspots in China.     

The tourism disaster vulnerability framework: an application to tourism in small island destinations

Islands are known to be vulnerable to natural hazards, resulting in substantial risks for their tourism industries. To facilitate the systematic analysis of the underlying vulnerability drivers, a tourism disaster vulnerability framework was developed. The conceptual model then guided qualitative empirical research in three regions: the Caribbean, the South Pacific, and the Indian Ocean. The results from 73 interviews highlight common, as well as idiosyncratic, factors that shape the islands’ hazardscapes and vulnerabilities. Key vulnerabilities included social, economic, political, and environmental dimensions. Probably, the most critical vulnerability driver is the lack of private sector investment in disaster risk reduction. This is interrelated with deficient planning processes, on-going demand for coastal products, lack of political will, and poor environmental conditions. Notwithstanding many barriers, some businesses and organisations engage proactively in addressing disaster risk. The paper’s empirical evidence supports the validity of the framework, and suggestions for further research are made.     

冰湖溃决灾害风险研究进展及其展望

系统回顾了国内外冰湖溃决灾害风险研究现状,结果显示,以往冰湖溃决灾害风险评估研究过多集中于冰湖溃决致灾诱因、特征,溃决危险性评价和溃决概率预测以及溃决洪峰流量及其演进模拟研究等自然风险方面,而承灾区经济社会系统脆弱性、暴露性和适应性风险研究却较为缺乏。因此,开展冰湖溃决灾害综合风险研究,不仅对冰湖溃决危险性评价意义重大,而且对于下游承灾区防灾减灾和预警体系建立也具有重要的理论参考价值。     

Up-scaling of impact dependent loss distributions: a hybrid convolution approach for flood risk in Europe

This paper introduces a new method to up-scale dependent loss distributions from natural hazards to higher spatial levels, explicitly incorporating their dependency structure over the aggregation process. The method is applied for flood risk in Europe. Based on this “hybrid convolution” approach, flood loss distributions for nearly all European countries are calculated and presented. Such risk-based estimates of extreme event losses are useful for determining suitable risk management strategies on various spatial levels for different risk bearers. The method is not only applicable for natural disaster risk but can be extended for other cases as well, i.e., where comonotonic risks have to be “summed up” without loss of risk information.     

Methodology of natural risk assessment in Russia

The Russian Federation territory is prone to various natural hazards. The paper analyzes the most hazardous natural processes that may cause human deaths, injuries and health damage, as well as considerable economic loss. The history of studies in the assessment of different natural risk indices in the interests of particular end-users is described, and the conceptual instruments used in the assessment of natural risk indices are considered. The principle GIS-based methodical approaches to the assessment and mapping of natural risk are provided. The examples of estimation and mapping of natural risk are cited and their application by different end-users (i.e., state and municipal authorities, Ministry of Construction of Russia, Ministry of the Russian Federation for Civil Defence, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters (Emercom of Russia)).     

A new viewpoint of hazard assessment and management for Taiwan��s insurance issues

High rates of urbanization, environmental degradation, and industrial development in disaster-prone areas have all served to increase the extent of damage following catastrophes. Recently, losses from environmental hazards have escalated, which has resulted in a noticeable change in policy, with more emphasis on loss reduction through mitigation, preparedness, and recovery programs. This study focuses on natural disaster management in which the direct risks are posed by the natural disasters themselves. This paper presents a review of issues surrounding natural disaster risk control and insurance in Taiwan. It proposes the use of background information concerning risk control strategies as well as earthquake, typhoon, and flood insurance in Taiwan. Finally, an insurance case study is utilized to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology.     

Environmental disasters in social context: toward a preventive and precautionary approach

The paper examines relations between natural hazards and social conditions in disaster, and problems of their integration in disaster management. This must be done against a background of ever-increasing numbers of disasters. The initiating roles and impacts of environmental hazards are acknowledged. However, expanding losses are not explained by increased geophysical risks. To the extent that scientific knowledge or engineering and planning skills are involved, the problems seem more one of (in)effective deployment than major deficiencies. Social analyses suggest the scope of today’s disasters follows primarily from greater concentrations of vulnerable people, exposed in dangerous situations, and lacking adequate protections. Firstly, the question of disaster causality is revisited as a problem of damage diagnostics. A basis is developed from the findings of formal disaster inquiries. Despite their limitations, well-conducted inquiries offer unusually comprehensive anatomies of the social and physical conditions of disasters. They demonstrate and trace out the interplay of environmental, societal, technological, and institutional components of emergencies. In the examples described, environmental hazards are investigated in great detail. Nevertheless, societal preconditions are shown to be more critical. Inadequacies in emergency preparedness, performance, and post-disaster response are highlighted, and for those most at risk. The conclusions present major challenges for the agent-specific view of disasters, and for disaster management preoccupied with natural forces, uncertainty, and emergency responses. Rather, a view of disaster causality emerges emphasizing avoidable failures of preventive, protective, and intervention measures. Evidence is cited to show this is increasingly relevant in so-called natural disasters lacking such inquiries. The discussion considers the relevance of a preventive and precautionary approach in this context. The histories of accident, disease, fire, and crime prevention support arguments for greater attention to context-specific environmental and societal aspects of risk. Aligning disaster management more closely with preventive priorities depends upon a much greater focus on people, places, and livelihoods most at risk, reversing the social processes that put them at risk. It requires listening to their voices and concerns, recognizing and bolstering their resilience. Much more can and should be done to disseminate the protections, from building regulations to insurance, that actually do save so many others in the disasters that happen. As such, the case for greater attention to issues of governance and social justice is strengthened.     

Challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risk: a review

Many areas of the world are prone to several natural hazards, and effective risk reduction is only possible if all relevant threats are considered and analyzed. However, in contrast to single-hazard analyses, the examination of multiple hazards poses a range of additional challenges due to the differing characteristics of processes. This refers to the assessment of the hazard level, as well as to the vulnerability toward distinct processes, and to the arising risk level. As comparability of the single-hazard results is strongly needed, an equivalent approach has to be chosen that allows to estimate the overall hazard and consequent risk level as well as to rank threats. In addition, the visualization of a range of natural hazards or risks is a challenging task since the high quantity of information has to be depicted in a way that allows for easy and clear interpretation. The aim of this contribution is to give an outline of the challenges each step of a multi-hazard (risk) analysis poses and to present current studies and approaches that face these difficulties.     

Risk analysis of tripping accidents of power grid caused by typical natural hazards based on FTA-BN model

As the scale of the power grid becomes larger, the requirements for transmission reliability are getting higher. Due to the large geographical span and the harsh environment of the power transmission line, it has become the most severely affected equipment of the power grid by natural factors. However, the quantitative assessment of transmission line tripping accidents caused by multiple natural hazards has rarely been investigated. In this study, a risk analysis method to probabilistically analyze the tripping accidents of power transmission lines caused by wildfire, lightning, strong wind and ice storm was proposed. The analysis process consists of comprehensively identifying the risk of tripping accidents based on fault tree analysis and dynamically performing the predictive analysis of tripping accident evolution process in transmission line from causes to consequences based on Bayesian network. Critical risk evolution paths corresponding to four natural hazards are determined through a 72-node BN. The source risks of the four critical risk evolution paths are artificial ignition source from the wildfire path, aging from the lightning path, thoughtless of surrounding environment from the strong wind path and wind effect from the ice storm path. The countermeasures of tripping accidents are derived through the source risks and synergy between risks in three scenario analysis. This study is expected to examine the key challenges of risk management in power grid tripping accidents, which provides technical supports for accident preventing, handling and recovering of tripping accidents of the power transmission line according to “scenario–response”-based hazard response strategy.

     

Multilayer-exposure maps as a basis for a regional vulnerability assessment for landslides: applied in Waidhofen/Ybbs,Austria

Assessments of natural hazards and risks are beneficial for sustainable planning and natural hazard risk management. On a regional scale, quantitative hazard and risk assessments are data intensive and methods developed are difficult to transfer to other regions and to analyse different periods in a given region. Such transfers could be beneficial regarding factors of global change influencing the patterns of natural hazard and risk. The aim of this study was to show the landslide exposure of different elements at risk in one map, e.g. residential buildings and critical infrastructure, as a solid basis for an in-depth analysis of vulnerability and consequent risk. This enables to overcome the data intensive assessments on a regional scale and highlights the potential hotspots for risk analysis. The study area is located in the alpine foreland in Lower Austria and comprises around 112 km². The results show the different levels of exposure, as well as how many layers of elements at risk are affected. Several exposure hotspots can be delineated throughout the study area. This allows a decision on in-depth analysis of hotspots not only by indicated locations but also by a rank resulting from the different layers of incorporated elements at risk.     

Environmental risk management of urban growth poles regarding national importance

Urban settlements of regional importance from Romania impose within the national settlements system by their ability to converge material and human flows, leading to important unbalances in the relationships between the components of territorial systems. The status they held, both in the communist period and at present, made the economic activities developed in a short time exceed the adapting ability of the other components of the territorial system, the natural environment strongly feeling the industrialisation pressure. Identifying the specificities of the environmental risk management at the level of development poles of regional importance was done by detailed analyses accomplished in Craiova, a representative town for the high concentration of economic activities strongly pressing upon the natural environment. The construction of the model of environmental risk management supposes the classifying of risks by a series of criteria, a model which constitutes a useful instrument for the decision factors. The management of unbalances from the territorial systems determined by industrialisation is one of the major preoccupations of the decision factors from Romania, in order to be aligned to the European environment standards.     

The structural vulnerability in the framework of natural hazard risk analyses and the exemplary application for storm loss modelling in Tyrol (Austria)

In the context of natural hazard-related risk analyses, different concepts and comprehensions of the term risk exist. These differences are mostly subjected to the perceptions and historical backgrounds of the different scientific disciplines and results in a multitude of methodological concepts to analyse risk. The target-oriented selection and application of these concepts depend on the specific research object which is generally closely connected to the stakeholders’ interests. An obvious characteristic of the different conceptualizations is the immanent various comprehensions of vulnerability. As risk analyses from a natural scientific-technical background aim at estimating potential expositions and consequences of natural hazard events, the results can provide an appropriate decision basis for risk management strategies. Thereby, beside the preferably addressed gravitative and hydrological hazards, seismo-tectonical and especially meteorological hazard processes have been rarely considered within multi-risk analyses in an Alpine context. Hence, their comparative grading in an overall context of natural hazard risks is not quantitatively possible. The present paper focuses on both (1) the different concepts of the natural hazard risk and especially their specific expressions in the context of vulnerability and (2) the exemplary application of the natural scientific-technical risk concepts to analyse potential extreme storm losses in the Austrian Province of Tyrol. Following the corresponding general risk concept, the case study first defines the hazard potential, second estimates the exposures and damage potentials on the basis of an existing database of the stock of elements and values, and third analyses the so-called Extreme Scenario Losses (ESL) considering the structural vulnerability of the potentially affected elements at risk. Thereby, it can be shown that extreme storm events can induce losses solely to buildings and inventory in the range of EUR 100–150 million in Tyrol. However, in an overall context of potential extreme natural hazard events, the storm risk can be classified with a moderate risk potential in this province.     

Flood hazard assessment and mapping of River Swat using HEC-RAS 2D model and high-resolution 12-m TanDEM-X DEM (WorldDEM)

Natural Hazards - Floods are among the most devastating and recurring natural hazards and have caused extensive economic losses to human lives and infrastructures around the world. Swat valley in...     

论土地资源与地质灾害的双重属性与发展态势

土地资源与地质灾害都有双重属性。地球表层系统的演变、自然环境的变化和人类社会活动是土地资源与地质灾害形成与变化的双重原因。近年来,一方面自然变异加剧和人类过量开发利用土地资源导致地质灾害严重;另一方面严重的地质灾害又会对土地资源进一步造成破坏,由此产生的恶性循环已成为社会经济可持续发展的突出问题。由于自然变异是不以人类的意愿为转移的,那么,顺应自然规律,约束并规范人类社会活动范围、消除不良行为是减轻地质灾害、可持续利用土地资源的最佳策略。      

Possibilities and Limitations of Interdisciplinary, User-oriented Research: Experiences from the German Research Network Natural Disasters

The German Research Network for Natural Disasters (DFNK) linked 15 partners with scientific expertise in the field of natural hazards. Main objectives were the development and provision of the scientific fundamentals for an advanced risk management of important natural disasters in Germany, i.e., floods, earthquakes, storms and wildland fires. This included risk analyses, the development of information systems for supporting disaster management, and recommendations for risk reduction measures. This paper gives an overview of DFNK and summarises its experiences concerning multidisciplinarity and user-orientation. It illustrates the concept of risk chains, causally linking the different processes from hazard to risk. The step from hazard to risk requires interdisciplinary research teams. The experiences show that integrative concepts allow results not achievable with mono-disciplinary approaches. Integrative approaches pave the way to harmonised safety considerations taking into account the different hazards in a region within a common framework. User-orientation, policy advice and development of operational tools are key issues of disaster research. The experiences of DFNK illustrate the limitations of a research network in bridging the gap between research and application within rather short-term projects. Successful cooperation with users could be established by those activities where, at the beginning of the project, a user was identified who had a strong interest in solving an urgent problem.