一种应用于地震长期预报中的概率增益模型

由推导的前兆存在时强震发生的条件概率表达式，讨论了地震发生的概率增益模型。同时，由空间地震活动和地震资料的不均一性，研究了平稳条件概率的各种计算方法。最后，以华北地区的各地震带为例，用多种方法计算了它们的平稳无条件概率和河北北部区域未来１０年的强震发生概率     

中国大陆地震低活动异常及其在中期预测中的效能研究

在对中国大陆地震活动的分析研究中发现, 在某些大地震发生前的一、 两年中, 中国大陆往往出现地震活动显著平静的低活动异常。 本文应用最近100 a(1918—2017年)间5级以上地震资料, 分析地震低活动异常与未来一、 两年中国大陆地震活动的关系。 从M≥5.0地震的年频度、 年度最大地震震级、 6级以上地震的平静等方面建立了地震低活动异常的判据指标, 并从概率增益指数β、 预测效能比α、 地震预测R值评分等方面对地震低活动异常与未来大震关系作了多参数检验。 初步研究结果显示, 地震低活动异常与未来一、 两年中国大陆地震活动有一定的关系, 主要表现为其与8级左右(M≥7.8)巨大地震具有一定的相关性, 但其关联度较低, 概率增益指数β与预测效能比α为3左右, R值评分为0.2左右。 对于M＜7.5的地震, 地震低活动异常未显示, 其概率增益β, R值评分接近于0, 似呈现为近于随机关系。 M7.5是开始显示地震低活动异常与其有一定相关性的转折点。     

中长期时空增益综合预测模型及其初步应用

阐述了中长期地震时空增益综合预测模型的基本原理和单项预测方法的信度评价方法,给出了概率增益与预测效能评分R值的关系,并对R值评分法进行了推广．以华北地区为试点,研究了不同地震活动期与活动幕的时间概率增益、活断层的空间概率增益和以垂直形变为代表的时空联合的概率增益,并采用中长期地震时空增益综合预测模型,对华北北部地区的综合概率增益进行了示例性预测．      

地震活动性预测并划分未来地震发生的潜在区域方法研究

采用网格地震方法,选取面积百分比(33%),确定圈闭区域的半径,统计后期地震发生在圈闭区域内的概率。在我国4个不同构造环境和地震活动水平的地区,分别统计了后期地震发生在圈闭区域内的概率。结果表明,4个地区后期地震发生在圈闭区域的概率远远大于面积百分比。说明未来地震是高度地聚集在过去地震发生的区域内,采用地震活动性预测并划分未来地震发生的潜在区域的方法是可行的。     

西北地区东部地震前兆观测的概率增益

在前人工作的基础上,应用概率增益的思想对西北地区东部地震前兆观测的综合概率增益进行了探索性的应用研究。结果表明,前兆手段的概率增益异常集中出现在震前半年至震前1～3个月,异常项数随时间向发震时刻逼近而增加,未来震中在异常区附近,异常在空间上较为集中;前兆综合概率增益变化较大,中强地震前最高可达6个量级,但与台网的分布密度有关;中强地震前的平均台项概率增益总体上与震级大小有关,另外还与前兆台项的映震效果有关。     

安徽省地震成组活动特征及其危险性分析

利用强震组增益P、强震组效能R和强震组分布变异值S等3种指标，对安徽省1300年以来地震成组活动的客观性进行了检验，结果显示，该区不同时段、不同震级的地震活动呈现不同的特征和分布类型；同时，用b值方法分析了目前地震活动状态；在此基础上，应用泊松模型对未来地震趋势进行了概率预测。     

中—长期地震预测方法概率增益的评估

对各种不同时空尺度地震预测方法的概率增益Ｋ的评估,是应用地震预测综合概率增益模型的基本研究内容之一。各种尺度地震预测方法可分为空间增益,时间增益和时空增益三种类型,初步研究了概率增益Ｋ的评估方法,给出预测状态概率评估概率增益Ｋ的关系,并得出地震预测方法的Ｒ值评分与概率增益Ｋ的关系     

秦皇岛地区地震活动特征及其未来地震危险性

利用秦皇岛地区的地震活动特征、历史地震活动和唐山地震后对本区的影响,分析了历史上在秦皇岛地区发生过的中强地震特征,并结合秦皇岛地区的构造特征,认为该区域未来有发生中强地震的地震活动构造背景;并结合最大似然法进行分析,给出该地区的未来地震危险性概率。这对认识该地区的构造活动具有重要意义。     

探讨线性合成概率方法在江苏及邻区的应用

利用基于地震周期谱分析的线性合成概率预测方法,在对江苏及邻区已发生地震进行回顾性检验的基础上,探讨该方法在不同地震活动水平时的预报效能,结果表明:线性合成概率的高值分布时段为地震发生的优势时段,与中强地震具有较好的相关性;在研究区域处于地震活跃期时,用线性合成概率方法研究预测未来地震趋势是一种较为有效的方法。     

试用累积求和方法研究地震活动平静现象及大震概率预报

以表征区域地震活动强度背景的震级期望值作为单个地震事件的目标值,利用震级累积和C值随时间的变化分析地震活动相对平静现象,并给出其显著性检验. 文中还定量分析了平静异常与大震的关系,提出了利用核函数对大震发生时间进行概率外推的方法. 用上述方法对华北区的山西、张家口-渤海地震带的部分地区及新疆区域进行计算,显示该方法能够描述地震活动平静现象,并可合理地对未来大震发生时间进行概率外推估计.     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Aims And Scope

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and     

Solute concentrations in the lower niger river and the source rock contribution

Water quality analyses for the Niger River for the 1980/81 hydrological year are presented. The samples were collected from the main river at Lokoja, and from two main tributaries, the Kaduna and the Benue Rivers. Different water types were distinguished by the concentrations of major ions. The type Ca > Na > Mg > K - HCO₃ > SO₄ > Cl was represented at all stations during at least part of the year. Chloride was found to dominate the sulphate ion in the Kaduna and Niger, while the Benue maintained a higher concentration of sulphate relative to chloride all year round. Distinct patterns of seasonal variation in the ion concentrations were observed, particularly for the samples collected at Lokoja. Low ion concentrations were prominent during periods of high discharge, while low flow periods coincided with high dissolved ion concentrations. The contribution of rainwater to the total dissolved solids in the river waters was assessed indirectly using rainwater chemistry data from the Gulf of Guinea. The estimated rainwater contribution to the Lower Niger amounts to 5.15 mg 1^?1. Geochemical weathering calculations involving reactions of the four major minerals of granitic rocks - anorthite, biotite, albite, and K-feldspar - with carbon dioxide and water, can account for the average water composition of the Lower Niger. The proportion of the ionic components was also related to the occurrence of the respective element in the minerals.     

Scenario predictions for potential near-field and far-field earthquakes affecting Hong Kong

Historical earthquakes noted in the written records of the South China region, including Hong Kong, are not well delineated along identified prominent fault sources. Despite the lack of any definitive, localised trend in the spatial distribution of seismic activity in the region, there does appear to be some major disparity in the seismic activity rates (especially for large magnitude earthquakes) between the near-field and the far-field regions of Hong Kong. Despite this observation, previous studies of the regional seismic activity and seismic ground motion hazard (the latter using a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, PSHA) have considered very broad source zone regions, in which uniform levels of seismic activity have been assumed. The present paper further scrutinises this broad source zone (BSZ) approach by adopting a novel expanding circular disc (ECD) method to determine the rates of earthquake recurrence. Such a method is intended to counter-check previously developed models by determining earthquake scenario events in terms of magnitude–distance (M–R) pairs or combinations, having defined values of average return period. Unlike the BSZ approach, the ECD method specifically accounts for the supposed variations in the seismic activity rates between events in the near-field and the far-field of Hong Kong.The form of the developed method is particularly suited to the determination of design-level earthquake ground motions for bedrock sites, since it assumes a directionally-independent attenuation model as described in the companion paper. It is found that, whilst the BSZ approach may indicate the overall average levels of hazard that are representative of the South China region as a whole, it does not capture the large disparity in seismic activity rates between near-field and far-field events. This important feature is expected to have a significant impact upon engineering assessments of the seismic safety of structures in Hong Kong and elsewhere in the South China region. For example, it is found that for events with M≥6, the seismic activity rate (normalised by time and area) in the very far-field is around 3.5 times larger than in the near-field and medium-field of Hong Kong. The resulting design M-R combinations, covering a range of return periods from 70 to 2500 years, are limited, for very long return periods and for distant events, by the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude. Intensive research to determine this seismic hazard parameter is recommended, in order to refine further the results of the ECD analysis, which presently conservatively assumes the MCE to range between M=6 in the near-field of Hong Kong to M=8 in the very far-field, at distances greater than 280 km from Hong Kong.     

Depositional ages and characteristics of Middle–Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous lacustrine deposits in southeastern Mongolia

Lower Cretaceous lacustrine oil shales are widely distributed in southeastern Mongolia. Due to the high organic carbon content of oil shale, many geochemical studies and petroleum exploration have been conducted. Although most of the oil shales are considered to be Early Cretaceous in age, a recent study reveals that some were deposited in the Middle Jurassic. The present study aims at establishing depositional ages and characteristics of the Jurassic and Cretaceous lacustrine deposits in Mongolia. The Lower Cretaceous Shinekhudag Formation is about 250 m thick and composed of alternating beds of shale and dolomite. The Middle Jurassic Eedemt Formation is about 150 m thick and composed of alternating beds of shale, dolomitic marl, and siltstone. The alternations of shale and dolomite in both formations were formed by lake level changes, reflecting precipitation changes. Shales were deposited in the center of a deep lake during highstand, while dolomites were formed by primary precipitation during lowstand. Based on the radiometric age dating, the Shinekhudag Formation was deposited between 123.8 ±2.0 Ma and 118.5 ±0.9 Ma of the early Aptian. The Eedemt Formation was deposited at around 165–158 Ma of Callovian–Oxfordian. The calculated sedimentation rate of the Shinekhudag Formation is between 4.7 ±2.6 cm/ky and 10.0 ±7.6 cm/ky. Shales in the Shinekhudag Formation show micrometer‐scale lamination, consisting of algal organic matter and detrital clay mineral couplets. Given the average thickness of micro‐laminae and calculated sedimentation rate, the micro‐lamination is most likely of varve origin. Both Middle–Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous lacustrine oil shales were deposited in intracontinental basins in the paleo‐Asian continent. Tectonic processes and basin evolution basically controlled the deposition of these oil shales. In addition, enhanced precipitation under humid climate during the early Aptian and the Callovian–Oxfordian was another key factor inducing the widespread oil shale deposition in Mongolia.     

THEORETICAL APPROACH TO THE SOLUTION OF THE INFILTRATION PROBLEM

ABSTRACT

The one-dimensional transient downward entry of water in unsaturated soils is investigated theoretically. The mathematical equation describing the infiltration process is derived by combining Darcy's dynamic equation of motion with the continuity and thermodynamic state equations adjusted for the unsaturated flow conditions. The resulting equation together with the corresponding initial and boundary conditions constitues a mathematical initial boundary value problem requiring the solution of a nonlinear partial differential equation of the parabolic type. The volumetric water content is taken as the dependent variable and the time and the position along the vertical direction are taken as the independent variables. The governing equation is of such nature that a solution exists for t > 0 and is uniquely determined if two relationships are defined, together with the specified state of the system, at the initial time t = 0 and at the two boundaries. The two required relations are those of pressure versus permeability and pressure versus volumetric water content.

Since the partial differential equation has strong non-linear terms, a discrete solution is obtained by approximating the derivatives with finite-differences at discrete mesh points in the solution domain and integrated for the corresponding initial and boundary conditions. The use of an implicit difference scheme is employed in order to generate a system of simultaneous non-linear equations that has to be solved for each time increment. For n mesh points the two boundary conditions provide two equations and the repetition of the recurrence formula provides n—2 equations, the total being n equations for each time increment. The solution of the system is obtained by matrix inversion and particularly with a back-substitution technique. The FORTRAN statements used for obtaining the solution with an electronic digital computer (IBM 704) are presented together with the input data.

Analysis of the errors involved in the numerical solution is made and the stability and convergence of the solution of the approximate difference equation to that of the differential equation is investigated. The method applied is that of making a Fourier series expansion of a whole line of errors and then following the progress of the general term of the series expansion and also the behavior of each constituent harmonic. The errors (forming a continuous function of points in an abstract Banach space) are represented by vectors with the Fourier coefficients constituting a second Banach space. The amplification factor of the difference equation is shown to be always less than unity which guarantees the stability of the employed implicit recurrence scheme.

Experiments conducted on a vertical column packed uniformly with very fine sand, show a satisfactory agreement between the theoretically and experimentally obtained values. Many experimental results are shown in an attempt to explain the infiltration phenomenon with emphasis on the shape and movement of the wet front, and the effects of the degree of compaction, initial water content and deaired water on the infiltration rate.     

Late Permian post‐ophiolitic trondhjemites from Central Iran: a mark of subduction role in growth of Paleozoic continental crust

Late Permian trondhjemites in the Anarak area occur as stocks and dykes, which cross cut the Anarak ophiolite and its overlying metasedimentary rocks, and are exposed along the northern Anarak east–west main faults. These leucocratic intrusive bodies have enclaves of all ophiolitic units and metamorphic rocks. They are composed of amphibole, plagioclase (oligoclase), quartz, zircon and muscovite. Secondary minerals are chlorite (pycnochlorite), epidote, albite, magnetite and calcite. Whole‐rock major‐ and trace‐element analyses reveal that they are characterized by high SiO ₂ (67.8–71.0 wt%), Al ₂ O ₃ (14.9–17.1 wt%) and Na ₂ O (5.3–8.6 wt%), low K ₂ O (0.1–1.5 wt%; average: 0.8 wt%), low Rb/Sr ratio (0.01–0.40; average: 0.09), low Y (3–6 ppm), negative Ti, Nb and Ta anomalies, slightly negative or positive Eu anomaly, LREE enrichment and fractionated HREE. These rocks present 2 to 40 times enrichment in inclined chondrite‐normalized REE patterns. Geochemical characteristics of the Anarak trondhjemites all reflect melting of a mafic protolith at more than 10 kbar. The field evidence and whole‐rock chemistry reveal that these rocks have been crystallized from magmas derived from melting of subducted Anarak oceanic crust. This study reveals that melting of garnet amphibolite was an important element of continent formation in the study area.