芦山地震崩滑灾害空间分布及相关问题探讨

由于逆断层作用,2013年芦山M_S 7.0地震诱发的崩滑地质灾害分布表现出了明显的上盘效应与方向效应。在震后应急科考中未发现发震断层的地表破裂带,然而灾区大量出现的地震诱发滑坡、崩塌,加之密集的余震分布、地震烈度调查结果等,提供了确定芦山地震宏观震中、地震动错动方向以及研究地震发震构造等的诸多线索。 统计结果表明,芦山地震诱发的滑坡、崩塌具有明显的优势滑动方向（135°～144°）,该方向揭示了地震断层的错动方向,与震源机制解反映的一致,大体垂直于发震断层的走向;从地震诱发崩塌、滑坡灾害点的分布与密度判断,宏观震中位于宝盛乡北,在仪器记录震中东北约3.6km处;从余震群分布、地震诱发滑坡分布特点及地震等烈度线等,结合以往强震如汶川地震等的调查经验,推测当震级足够大时,发震断层地表破裂带可能通过地质灾害、余震密集区东侧的边缘地带,总体平行于双石-大川断裂。另外,通过分析地层岩性与崩滑地形条件之间的关联性,发现崩滑灾害在某些地层岩性中易发,灾害点呈线性排列的原因是不同地层岩性之间抗风化能力的差异性,造成在地层分界线上形成线性陡崖或高坡度地带,使之在强震作用下容易发生崩塌、滑坡。     

岩土边坡地震崩滑的三级评判预测

岩土边坡地震崩滑是最为严重的地质灾害之一,对岩土边坡地震崩滑的可能性提出及时有效的评价预测至关重要。本文提出并讨论了岩土边坡地震崩滑三级评判的思想及其实施方案,由主要考虑地震影响的初判,到以考虑控制地震崩滑的岩土边坡内、外因素为主的再判,最后是研究岩土边坡力学稳定性的详判,构成了一套由粗到细、分级筛选的有效方法。继续深入研究扩展该套方法的功能,使之适应多种灾害的评判预测工作,对于地质灾害防治手段和技术的发展具有战略意义。     

地震崩滑与地震参数的关系及其在边坡震害预测中的应用

在对我国已有的地震崩塌和滑坡（简称地震崩滑）资料进行研究的基础上,建立地震崩滑与地震参数间的关系,确定触发地震崩滑的最小震级、最小烈度和最大震中距,提出3个预测地震崩滑的初判准则。利用1996年2月3日云南省丽江7.0级地震引发的地震崩塌和滑坡实例,对此初判准则进行了验证。     

2013年甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震触发滑坡及其构造分析

2013年7月22日,甘肃省岷县漳县交界发生了Ms6.6地震.地震触发了大量的、类型各种各样的滑坡.滑坡类型以黄土崖崩、滑、倾为主,还有一些深层连贯型土质滑坡、大型土质流滑、斜坡裂缝等类型.地震滑坡主要分布在一个与临潭-宕昌断裂平行的长条形区域内.该长条形区域面积约为250km2,长度约40km,最大宽度约8km.对应不同构造段落的区域内滑坡发育程度不同,反映了不同段落发震构造的特征差异.滑坡的主体分布范围与震中位置表明了构造破裂是从SEE向NWW方向发展的.最后,分析了该滑坡主体分布区中心线与临潭-宕昌断裂在空间地理位置上相差10km的2种可能的原因.     

渭河断陷南缘断裂带新活动特征与古地震

渭河断陷南缘断裂带东起潼关,西至宝鸡,全长310公里,它的主边界断裂包括有华山山前断裂、秦岭北缘断裂。本文根据近年1∶5万活动断裂地质填图最新详细资料研究了断裂的活动历史、分段性及其构造活动特征。华山山前断裂晚第四纪以来具有明显的新活动,沿断裂带及其两侧分布有最新断层崖、基岩裂缝、黄土裂缝、山体崩(滑)塌体等众多的地震形变和破坏遗迹,华山山前断裂应是1556年华县8级大地震的发震断层。据华山山前断裂古地震剖面分析大地震重复间隔约2000—2500年,秦岭北缘断裂同样存在有基岩崩(滑)塌、裂缝、断层崖等古地震形变遗迹,由古地震剖面分析其大地震重复间隔约为2000—4000年之间。     

1556年陕西华县大地震形变遗迹及华山山前断裂古地震研究

华山山前断裂带晚第四纪以来具有明显的新活动,沿断裂带及其两侧分布有最新断层崖,基岩裂缝、黄土裂缝、山体崩(滑)塌体等众多的地震形变和破坏遗迹,华山山前断裂带应是1556年华县8级地震的发震断层。 从本文提供的一个古地震剖面分析,华山山前断裂带全新世以来可能发生过四次大地震,其重复间隔约2000—2500年     

2013年甘肃岷县-漳县6.6级地震烈度异常点分布及成因

2013年7月22日甘肃岷县-漳县Ms6.6地震发生在临潭-宕昌断裂的东段,遥感和DEM研究表明,该断裂东段在晚第四纪以来仍有活动,自岷县至宕昌,断裂由左旋走滑兼具逆冲性质转为以左旋走滑性质为主。现场烈度和灾害调查发现,Ⅶ度区内形成Ⅷ度的异常点,在Ⅵ度区内形成Ⅶ度的异常点,这些异常点分布在沿断裂带附近约2km的范围内,主要分布在断层的上盘。进一步研究表明,由于临潭-宕昌断裂在岷县以南以走滑运动为主,强震动主要沿断裂传播,同时由于断裂活动形成软弱地基,强震动引起地基失效造成灾害,形成了烈度异常点。     

汶川地震甘肃省文县地震地质灾害遥感分析

2008年汶川地震诱发了大量的次生山地灾害.本文以多源、多时相的遥感影像(TM、ASTER、SPOT)作为信息源,基于地学知识,采用图像增强、人机交互的方式对甘肃省文县地区汶川地震引发的次生山地灾害进行解译.以ArcGIS软件为处理平台,运用空间分析技术,将解译结果与海拔高度、坡度、植被覆盖度和地震烈度进行空间分析,获得了研究区次生山地灾害的分布规律,其特点为:文县境内的次生山地灾害主要分布在20°～60°的边坡;多发生在1 000～2 500m的海拔高程范围内;主要分布在地震烈度Ⅶ度及以上区域.     

西藏天摩沟冰川遥感监测及泥石流触发成因分析

对于有冰川发育的泥石流隐患点而言,获取冰川动态有助于分析泥石流触发成因.西藏波密县天摩沟是大型泥石流灾害隐患点,在过去二十年中多次暴发泥石流.本文利用Planet、TanDEM-X和Sentinel-2卫星数据估计了天摩沟冰川2016—2021年间的边界变化、2000—2016年间的表面高程变化,以及2016—2021年间的流速变化.冰川边界、表面高程和流速变化观测结果均表明天摩沟冰川在2018年7月11日大型泥石流暴发前未发生跃动或崩塌.通过分析高分辨光学影像和气象数据,认为冰川附近山体崩滑产生的岩屑,冰川前方的冰碛物和散冰,以及主沟中上游沟岸滑坡产生的松散物共同组成2018年7月11日泥石流的启动物源,灾前连续两天降水使得物源含水量达到饱和,土体抗剪强度降低,灾害当天持续小雨诱发高位物源启动,形成泥石流灾害.天摩沟冰川对泥石流发育的作用在于贡献了部分物源和水源.其流速明显高于周边冰川,主干峰值流速可达0.80±0.02 m·d^-1.冰川高速流动使得高位冰碛物堆积速度快,而冰川融水使得泥石流降雨启动阈值更低.天摩沟在2018年7月之后没有再发生大规模泥石流,但是...     

建国以来中国山洪灾害时空演变格局及驱动因素分析

本文揭示了建国以来中国山洪灾害时空演变格局,探测了影响历史山洪灾害空间分布的驱动因子.采用6万多个山洪灾害历史记录数据,利用重心对比方法,从重心地理位置、聚集程度、移动趋势3个方面揭示了1951～2015年中国山洪灾害时空演变特征,初步分析了降雨、人口与山洪灾害之间时空演变的关系.进一步选取2000～2015年间相关数据,基于自然流域单元,构建了降雨、人类活动、地表环境相关因子,利用地理探测器分析方法,探测影响历史山洪灾害空间分布的驱动因子.分析结果表明,建国以来,中国历史山洪灾害空间分布转移与降雨和人口分布的变化趋势呈现出明显的相关性; 2000～2015年间山洪灾害空间分布呈现出区域分异特征,降雨因子的驱动大于人类活动因子和地表环境因子,地表环境和人类活动在成灾环境中具有交互作用.研究结果揭示了山洪灾害驱动因子具有明显的时空异质性,中国山洪高风险区包括川渝生态区、华南生态区、云贵高原和长江中下游地区;低风险度区包括西北干旱区、青藏高原、内蒙古高原和东北生态区.研究结果有助于科学理解山洪成灾环境、山洪灾害风险度分区,也为进一步做好治灾防灾工作提供了科学依据.     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Aims And Scope

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and     

Solute concentrations in the lower niger river and the source rock contribution

Water quality analyses for the Niger River for the 1980/81 hydrological year are presented. The samples were collected from the main river at Lokoja, and from two main tributaries, the Kaduna and the Benue Rivers. Different water types were distinguished by the concentrations of major ions. The type Ca > Na > Mg > K - HCO₃ > SO₄ > Cl was represented at all stations during at least part of the year. Chloride was found to dominate the sulphate ion in the Kaduna and Niger, while the Benue maintained a higher concentration of sulphate relative to chloride all year round. Distinct patterns of seasonal variation in the ion concentrations were observed, particularly for the samples collected at Lokoja. Low ion concentrations were prominent during periods of high discharge, while low flow periods coincided with high dissolved ion concentrations. The contribution of rainwater to the total dissolved solids in the river waters was assessed indirectly using rainwater chemistry data from the Gulf of Guinea. The estimated rainwater contribution to the Lower Niger amounts to 5.15 mg 1^?1. Geochemical weathering calculations involving reactions of the four major minerals of granitic rocks - anorthite, biotite, albite, and K-feldspar - with carbon dioxide and water, can account for the average water composition of the Lower Niger. The proportion of the ionic components was also related to the occurrence of the respective element in the minerals.     

Scenario predictions for potential near-field and far-field earthquakes affecting Hong Kong

Historical earthquakes noted in the written records of the South China region, including Hong Kong, are not well delineated along identified prominent fault sources. Despite the lack of any definitive, localised trend in the spatial distribution of seismic activity in the region, there does appear to be some major disparity in the seismic activity rates (especially for large magnitude earthquakes) between the near-field and the far-field regions of Hong Kong. Despite this observation, previous studies of the regional seismic activity and seismic ground motion hazard (the latter using a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, PSHA) have considered very broad source zone regions, in which uniform levels of seismic activity have been assumed. The present paper further scrutinises this broad source zone (BSZ) approach by adopting a novel expanding circular disc (ECD) method to determine the rates of earthquake recurrence. Such a method is intended to counter-check previously developed models by determining earthquake scenario events in terms of magnitude–distance (M–R) pairs or combinations, having defined values of average return period. Unlike the BSZ approach, the ECD method specifically accounts for the supposed variations in the seismic activity rates between events in the near-field and the far-field of Hong Kong.The form of the developed method is particularly suited to the determination of design-level earthquake ground motions for bedrock sites, since it assumes a directionally-independent attenuation model as described in the companion paper. It is found that, whilst the BSZ approach may indicate the overall average levels of hazard that are representative of the South China region as a whole, it does not capture the large disparity in seismic activity rates between near-field and far-field events. This important feature is expected to have a significant impact upon engineering assessments of the seismic safety of structures in Hong Kong and elsewhere in the South China region. For example, it is found that for events with M≥6, the seismic activity rate (normalised by time and area) in the very far-field is around 3.5 times larger than in the near-field and medium-field of Hong Kong. The resulting design M-R combinations, covering a range of return periods from 70 to 2500 years, are limited, for very long return periods and for distant events, by the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude. Intensive research to determine this seismic hazard parameter is recommended, in order to refine further the results of the ECD analysis, which presently conservatively assumes the MCE to range between M=6 in the near-field of Hong Kong to M=8 in the very far-field, at distances greater than 280 km from Hong Kong.     

Depositional ages and characteristics of Middle–Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous lacustrine deposits in southeastern Mongolia

Lower Cretaceous lacustrine oil shales are widely distributed in southeastern Mongolia. Due to the high organic carbon content of oil shale, many geochemical studies and petroleum exploration have been conducted. Although most of the oil shales are considered to be Early Cretaceous in age, a recent study reveals that some were deposited in the Middle Jurassic. The present study aims at establishing depositional ages and characteristics of the Jurassic and Cretaceous lacustrine deposits in Mongolia. The Lower Cretaceous Shinekhudag Formation is about 250 m thick and composed of alternating beds of shale and dolomite. The Middle Jurassic Eedemt Formation is about 150 m thick and composed of alternating beds of shale, dolomitic marl, and siltstone. The alternations of shale and dolomite in both formations were formed by lake level changes, reflecting precipitation changes. Shales were deposited in the center of a deep lake during highstand, while dolomites were formed by primary precipitation during lowstand. Based on the radiometric age dating, the Shinekhudag Formation was deposited between 123.8 ±2.0 Ma and 118.5 ±0.9 Ma of the early Aptian. The Eedemt Formation was deposited at around 165–158 Ma of Callovian–Oxfordian. The calculated sedimentation rate of the Shinekhudag Formation is between 4.7 ±2.6 cm/ky and 10.0 ±7.6 cm/ky. Shales in the Shinekhudag Formation show micrometer‐scale lamination, consisting of algal organic matter and detrital clay mineral couplets. Given the average thickness of micro‐laminae and calculated sedimentation rate, the micro‐lamination is most likely of varve origin. Both Middle–Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous lacustrine oil shales were deposited in intracontinental basins in the paleo‐Asian continent. Tectonic processes and basin evolution basically controlled the deposition of these oil shales. In addition, enhanced precipitation under humid climate during the early Aptian and the Callovian–Oxfordian was another key factor inducing the widespread oil shale deposition in Mongolia.     

THEORETICAL APPROACH TO THE SOLUTION OF THE INFILTRATION PROBLEM

ABSTRACT

The one-dimensional transient downward entry of water in unsaturated soils is investigated theoretically. The mathematical equation describing the infiltration process is derived by combining Darcy's dynamic equation of motion with the continuity and thermodynamic state equations adjusted for the unsaturated flow conditions. The resulting equation together with the corresponding initial and boundary conditions constitues a mathematical initial boundary value problem requiring the solution of a nonlinear partial differential equation of the parabolic type. The volumetric water content is taken as the dependent variable and the time and the position along the vertical direction are taken as the independent variables. The governing equation is of such nature that a solution exists for t > 0 and is uniquely determined if two relationships are defined, together with the specified state of the system, at the initial time t = 0 and at the two boundaries. The two required relations are those of pressure versus permeability and pressure versus volumetric water content.

Since the partial differential equation has strong non-linear terms, a discrete solution is obtained by approximating the derivatives with finite-differences at discrete mesh points in the solution domain and integrated for the corresponding initial and boundary conditions. The use of an implicit difference scheme is employed in order to generate a system of simultaneous non-linear equations that has to be solved for each time increment. For n mesh points the two boundary conditions provide two equations and the repetition of the recurrence formula provides n—2 equations, the total being n equations for each time increment. The solution of the system is obtained by matrix inversion and particularly with a back-substitution technique. The FORTRAN statements used for obtaining the solution with an electronic digital computer (IBM 704) are presented together with the input data.

Analysis of the errors involved in the numerical solution is made and the stability and convergence of the solution of the approximate difference equation to that of the differential equation is investigated. The method applied is that of making a Fourier series expansion of a whole line of errors and then following the progress of the general term of the series expansion and also the behavior of each constituent harmonic. The errors (forming a continuous function of points in an abstract Banach space) are represented by vectors with the Fourier coefficients constituting a second Banach space. The amplification factor of the difference equation is shown to be always less than unity which guarantees the stability of the employed implicit recurrence scheme.

Experiments conducted on a vertical column packed uniformly with very fine sand, show a satisfactory agreement between the theoretically and experimentally obtained values. Many experimental results are shown in an attempt to explain the infiltration phenomenon with emphasis on the shape and movement of the wet front, and the effects of the degree of compaction, initial water content and deaired water on the infiltration rate.     

Late Permian post‐ophiolitic trondhjemites from Central Iran: a mark of subduction role in growth of Paleozoic continental crust

Late Permian trondhjemites in the Anarak area occur as stocks and dykes, which cross cut the Anarak ophiolite and its overlying metasedimentary rocks, and are exposed along the northern Anarak east–west main faults. These leucocratic intrusive bodies have enclaves of all ophiolitic units and metamorphic rocks. They are composed of amphibole, plagioclase (oligoclase), quartz, zircon and muscovite. Secondary minerals are chlorite (pycnochlorite), epidote, albite, magnetite and calcite. Whole‐rock major‐ and trace‐element analyses reveal that they are characterized by high SiO ₂ (67.8–71.0 wt%), Al ₂ O ₃ (14.9–17.1 wt%) and Na ₂ O (5.3–8.6 wt%), low K ₂ O (0.1–1.5 wt%; average: 0.8 wt%), low Rb/Sr ratio (0.01–0.40; average: 0.09), low Y (3–6 ppm), negative Ti, Nb and Ta anomalies, slightly negative or positive Eu anomaly, LREE enrichment and fractionated HREE. These rocks present 2 to 40 times enrichment in inclined chondrite‐normalized REE patterns. Geochemical characteristics of the Anarak trondhjemites all reflect melting of a mafic protolith at more than 10 kbar. The field evidence and whole‐rock chemistry reveal that these rocks have been crystallized from magmas derived from melting of subducted Anarak oceanic crust. This study reveals that melting of garnet amphibolite was an important element of continent formation in the study area.