Enhancement of the method of summer precipitation forecasting

The physical-synoptic principles of the automated method of summer precipitation forecasting introduced into operational prognostic practice in 2006 by the decree of the Central Methodical Commission of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) are presented. Beside that, improved modifications of this method, which are automatically updated, are shown. Validation of those updates based on observational data collected in 2004 has shown improvement of all major criteria of forecasts efficiency. The performed improvement is based on the more detailed quantitative realization of mechanism of various showers formation (including heavy rainfalls).     

江淮梅雨期极端对流微物理特征的双偏振雷达观测研究

为研究梅雨期极端对流系统的微物理特征,利用2013—2014年江淮梅雨期间南京溧水S波段双偏振雷达探测资料和地面自动站小时降水资料,统计分析了两类极端对流降水系统的微物理特征及差异。这两类极端对流系统的定义基于地面降水强度和雷达回波顶高,分别为所有对流中降水强度最强的1%（R类:小时降水强度>46.2 mm/h）和对流发展高度最高的1%（H类:20 dBz回波顶高>14.5 km）。结果显示这两类极端对流系统仅有30%的样本重合,显示了二者之间的弱相关性。对于相同的反射率因子Z_H,R类极端对流系统的近地面差分反射率因子Z_DR通常较H类极端对流小约0.2 dB,表明R类极端对流具有较小的平均粒径。结合双偏振雷达反演的粒子大小和相态分布显示,虽然两类极端对流都表现出海洋性对流降水特征,但R类极端对流较H类极端对流的总体雨滴粒径更小而数浓度更高,导致R类极端对流系统的地面降水更强。与R类极端对流系统相比,H类极端对流系统的上升运动更强,将更多的水汽和过冷水输送到0℃层以上,有利于形成更大的冰相粒子（如霰粒子等）,并通过融化形成大雨滴。以上研究表明,梅雨期降水强度和对流发展深度并没有必然的联系,极端降水主要是中等高度的对流引起。      

Effects of atmospheric river landfalls on the cold season precipitation in California

Effects of atmospheric river (AR) landfalls in the California coast on the cold-season precipitation in California are examined for the cold seasons of 10 water years (WYs) 2001–2010 using observed data and regional modeling in conjunction with AR-landfall inventory based on visual inspections of precipitable water vapor (PWV) from remote sensing and reanalysis. The PWV in the SSM/I and SSMIS retrievals and the ERA-Interim reanalysis shows 95 AR-landfall days in the California coast that are almost evenly split between the northern and southern coasts across 37.5N. The CPC/NCEP gridded daily precipitation analysis shows that 10–30% of the cold-season precipitation totals in California have occurred during these AR landfalls. The analysis also reveals that the percentage of precipitation and the precipitation intensity during AR landfalls in California are characterized by strong north-to-south gradient. This north–south contrast in the AR precipitation is reversed for the non-AR precipitation in the coastal range. The frequency of AR landfalls and the cold-season precipitation totals in the Sierra Nevada region are only marginally correlated. Instead, AR landfalls are closely related with the occurrence of heavy precipitation events. The freezing-level altitudes are systematically higher for AR wet days than non-AR wet days indicating warmer low-troposphere during AR storms. Cold season simulations for the 10 WYs 2001–2010 show that the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model can reasonably simulate important features in both the seasonal and AR precipitation totals. The daily pattern correlation coefficients between the simulated and ERA-Interim upper-air fields exceed 0.9 for most of the period. This suggests that the simulated temporal variations in the atmospheric circulation agree reasonably with the reanalysis over seasonal time scales, characteristics critical for reliable simulations of regional scale hydrologic cycle. The simulated seasonal and AR precipitation totals also agree reasonably with the CPC/NCEP precipitation analysis. The most notable model errors include the overestimation (underestimation) of the season-total and AR precipitation in the northern (southern) California region. The differences in the freezing-level altitudes during the AR- and non-AR wet days in the simulation agree with those from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The freezing level altitudes are systematically overestimated in the simulations, suggesting warm biases in the low troposphere. Overall, WRF appears to perform reasonably in simulating the key features in the cold season precipitation related with AR landfalls, an important capability for assessing the impact of global climate variations and change on future hydrology in California.     

东北冷涡南落型强对流天气的潜势预报分析

通过2005-2008年4-6月Micaps资料,查找500 hPa东北有冷涡,500 hPa和700 hPa江苏境内为大片的西北气流,当天午后到夜里出现强对流天气的若干典型个例,借助Micaps系统通过对一些个例的物理量资料分析,得出它们共同的发生强对流天气的机理;同时还分析得出诊断该类对流天气的不太适合使用的物理量和较适合使用的物理量;并分析个例的大气探空层结曲线,得出它们的对流层结与其它类型的区别,并剖析它们的一日转变情况;同时用Q矢量锋生函数方法分析,发现低层强锋生区域与强对流天气区域有较好的对应关系,锋生函数正值中心区域常出现个别站龙卷或大范围冰雹.     

Intraseasonal variability in South America during the cold season

Intraseasonal (IS) variability in South America is analyzed during the cold season using 10–90 day bandpass filtered OLR anomalies (FOLR). IS variability explains a large percentage of variance with maximum values over Paraguay, northeastern Argentina, and southern Brazil. The leading pattern of FOLR, as isolated from an EOF analysis, (Cold Season IS pattern, CSIS), is characterized by a monopole centered over southeastern South America (SESA) with a northwest-southeast orientation. CSIS induces a large modulation on daily precipitation anomalies, especially on both wet spells and daily precipitation extremes, which are favored during positive (wet) CSIS phases. Large-Scale OLR anomalies over the tropical Indian and west Pacific Oceans associated with CSIS exhibit eastward propagation along tropical latitudes. In addition, circulation anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere reveal the presence of an anticyclonic anomaly over Antarctica with opposite-sign anomalies in middle latitudes 10 days before CSIS is maximum as well as evidence of Rossby wave-like patterns. Positive precipitation anomalies in SESA are favored during wet CSIS phases by the intensification of a cyclonic anomaly located further south, which is discernible over the southeastern Pacific for at least 14 days before CSIS peaks. The cyclonic anomaly evolution is accompanied by the intensification of an upstream anticyclonic anomaly, which remains quasi-stationary near the Antarctica Peninsula before the CSIS peak. We speculate that the stationary behavior of the anticyclonic center is favored by a hemispheric circulation anomaly pattern resembling that associated with a negative southern annular mode phase and a wavenumber 3–4 pattern at middle latitudes.     

数值降水预报定量集成方法的业务应用

利用相似权重集成预报法对辽宁区域12个数值模式预报的降水量进行集成,并投入业务化应用。结果表明：通过对2009年5月1日至10月20日的24 h降水量预报进行TS评分,发现降水集成方法要优于12个集合成员的单个预报,同时也要优于简单的集合平均。试验表明,滞后时间和扩大圈数对集成预报效果影响很大,而单个的集合成员对集成预报效果影响较小。根据试验结果修改集成方法应用方案,按照不同降水量级和预报时效选择扩大的圈数,预报效果好于原方案,对大量级、长时效预报改进更明显,其中25 mm量级预报时效72 h的TS评分增加了20%或以上,具有实际应用价值。     

一次热对流降水成因的分析和模拟

夏季受西太平洋副热带高压控制的中国大陆地区常发生热对流降水。在副高中心盛行大尺度下沉气流的环境中,对流是怎样发生的？降水的水汽来自哪里？本文以2003年8月2日发生在江西、浙江等地区的热对流降水为例,研究了地表的非均匀感热加热对增强对流的贡献和地表蒸发、水汽水平通量辐合对降水的贡献。本文首先利用TRMM卫星观测资料、地面自动站地表温度观测资料和NCEP资料分析了热对流降水的特征及其产生的背景条件;接着利用区域平均的水汽方程诊断了地表蒸发、水汽平流和水汽通量辐合项的贡献,分析了降水的水汽来源;再进一步利用AREM区域数值预报模式,设计了4个敏感性试验研究了陆气感热、潜热通量对降水的贡献。结果表明,在副高控制的地区,白天强烈的非均匀地表感热加热可导致低层热空气块突破环境下沉气流而上升,周围空气补充形成辐合运动。低层空气的辐合上升既可引起水汽的汇聚,又可把低层的水汽输送到高层。同时非均匀陆面特征造成的非均匀感热和潜热通量的共同作用增强了大气的位势不稳定度,触发了对流,但感热通量对热对流降水的贡献比潜热通量略大。热对流降水的水汽除部分来自地表蒸发外,另一部分来自低层的水平通量辐合。定量计算表明二者对大气可降水量的贡献基本相当,而平流水汽的贡献很小。     

Mesoscale observational analysis of lifting mechanism of a warm-sector convective system producing the maximal daily precipitation in China mainland during pre-summer rainy season of 2015

A long-lived, quasi-stationary mesoscale convective system (MCS) producing extreme rainfall (maximum of 542 mm) over the eastern coastal area of Guangdong Province on 20 May 2015 is analyzed by using high-resolution surface observations, sounding data, and radar measurements. New convective cells are continuously initiated along a mesoscale boundary at the surface, leading to formation and maintenance of the quasi-linear-shaped MCS from about 2000 BT 19 to 1200 BT 20 May. The boundary is originally formed between a cold dome generated by previous convection and southwesterly flow from the ocean carrying higher equivalent potential temperature (θ _e) air. The boundary is subsequently maintained and reinforced by the contrast between the MCS-generated cold outflow and the oceanic higher-θ _e air. The cold outflow is weak (wind speed ≤ 5 m s ^?1), which is attributable to the characteristic environmental conditions, i.e., high humidity in the lower troposphere and weak horizontal winds in the middle and lower troposphere. The low speed of the cold outflow is comparable to that of the near surface southerly flow from the ocean, resulting in very slow southward movement of the boundary. The boundary features temperature contrasts of 2–3°C and is roughly 500-m deep. Despite its shallowness, the boundary appears to exert a profound influence on continuous convection initiation because of the very low level of free convection and small convection inhibition of the near surface oceanic air, building several parallel rainbands (of about 50-km length) that move slowly eastward along the MCS and produce about 80% of the total rainfall. Another MCS moves into the area from the northwest and merges with the local MCS at about 1200 BT. The cold outflow subsequently strengthens and the boundary moves more rapidly toward the southeast, leading to end of the event in 3 h.     

2017年5月7日广州特大暴雨微物理特征及其触发维持机制分析

利用区域气象站、海岛站、测风塔、风廓线和多普勒天气雷达等多种非常规观测以及NCEP/NCAR 0.25°×0.25°再分析资料,对2017年6月22日凌晨广东西部沿海发生的一次预报失败的局地特大暴雨过程的成因进行了综合诊断,重点探讨了局地海陆风和地形（相互）作用对该过程的影响。结果表明：（1）暴雨发生在弱天气尺度环流背景下,华南地区无锋面和高空槽活动,边界层超低空偏南急流为暴雨提供了不稳定能量,不同性质下垫面的热力差异导致天露山山前形成海陆风（偏南）与偏北风的中尺度辐合线,致使初始对流在关键区触发。（2）偏南暖湿气流向北推进受阻后,在天露山地形强迫抬升下对流增强发展成中尺度对流系统（MCS）,下垫面热力差异在山前强迫产生的中尺度垂直切变与降水之间可能存在正反馈现象,延长β中尺度对流系统生命史。（3）中尺度辐合线上不断激发的对流云团,形成降水的列车效应,导致了这场罕见的局地特大暴雨过程,凸显海陆风环流对本次暖区暴雨的重要作用。（4）该过程发生前,所有业务客观数值预报模式均未预报出明显降水,数值模式难以做出暖区尤其是弱天气背景下的暴雨以上降水预报,目前的监测和短时临近预警是主要手段。

     

华北地区雨季极端降水量的非均匀性特征

利用1957-2011年华北地区50个站日降水资料,分析极端降水量的集中度和集中期,探讨华北地区雨季极端降水的非均匀性特征。结果表明：华北地区极端降水量东南部大,西北部小;集中度也为东部大,西部小,即东部地区极端降水较集中,西部地区较分散。极端降水多出现在7月下旬,即华北的主汛期。极端降水量和集中度呈显著减小趋势,集中期减小趋势不显著。华北地区雨季极端降水量的集中度和集中期与同期极端降水量有较好的相关关系,极端降水量越多,极端降水出现越集中,且出现时间越晚;反之亦然。这种关系在环渤海湾地区最显著。分析京津唐地区极端降水发现,极端降水量及其集中度、集中期均呈显著减少趋势。京津唐地区极端降水量在20世纪90年代中期出现突变,90年代后,极端降水量明显减少,且更分散,集中期主要表现为提前。     

Estimation of economic value of satellite data for predicting convective events during the warm season

Presented are the quantitative estimates of the contribution of satellite data to the creation of reliable and accurate forecasts of convective events. Estimates are obtained by means of comparing the skill scores, reliability, and accuracy of forecasts of separate local and hardly predictable convective weather phenomena taking and not taking account of the satellite information.     

Meridional propagation of large-scale monsoon convective zones

Summary Observational studies indicate that the convective activity of the monsoon systems undergo intraseasonal variations with multi-week time scales. The zone of maximum monsoon convection exhibits substantial transient behavior with successive propagating from the North Indian Ocean to the heated continent. Over South Asia the zone achieves its maximum intensity. These propagations may extend over 3000 km in latitude and perhaps twice the distance in longitude and remain as coherent entities for periods greater than 2–3 weeks. Attempts to explain this phenomena using simple ocean-atmosphere models of the monsoon system had concluded that the interactive ground hydrology so modifies the total heating of the atmosphere that a steady state solution is not possible, thus promoting lateral propagation. That is, the ground hydrology forces the total heating of the atmosphere and the vertical velocity to be slightly out of phase, causing a migration of the convection towards the region of maximum heating. Whereas the lateral scale of the variations produced by the Webster (1983) model were essentially correct, they occurred at twice the frequency of the observed events and were formed near the coastal margin, rather than over the ocean.Webster's (1983) model used to pose the theories was deficient in a number of aspects. Particularly, both the ground moisture content and the thermal inertia of the model were severely underestimated. At the same time, the sea surface temperatures produced by the model between the equator and the model's land-sea boundary were far too cool. Both the atmosphere and the ocean model were modified to include a better hydrological cycle and ocean structure. The convective events produced by the modified model possessed the observed frequency and were generated well south of the coastline.The improved simulation of monsoon variability allowed the hydrological cycle feedback to be generalized. It was found that monsoon variability was constrained to lie within the bounds of a positive gradient of aconvective intensity potential (I). The function depends primarily on the surface temperature, the availability of moisture and the stability of the lower atmosphere which varies very slowly on the time scale of months. The oscillations of the monsoon perturb the mean convective intensity potential causing local enhancements of the gradient. These perturbations are caused by the hydrological feedbacks, discussed above, or by the modification of the air-sea fluxes caused by variations of the low level wind during convective events. The final result is the slow northward propagation of convection within an even slower convective regime. The ECMWF analyses show very similar behavior of the convective intensity potential. Although it is considered premature to use the model to conduct simulations of the African monsoon system, the ECMWF analysis indicates similar behavior in the convective intensity potential suggesting, at least, that the same processes control the low frequency structure of the African monsoon. The implications of the hypotheses on numerical weather prediction of monsoon phenomenon are discussed.     

梅雨锋暴雨云团中冰相粒子结构和演变特征的个例数值模拟

利用非静力平衡中尺度数值模式MM5(V3-6),对2003年7月4-5日发生在江淮流域的一次中小尺度暴雨过程进行了数值模拟,主要研究结果表明,冰晶、雪和霰三种冰相粒子分别主要分布在200 hPa、300 hPa和400 hPa附近的气压层.冰晶模拟结果的偏差趋势与模式模拟的地面降水的偏差趋势是基本一致的,而霰粒子模拟结果的区域偏差的倾向则能反映模式模拟域地面降水的偏差梯度,模式对地面降水模拟的好坏与模式对冰相态粒子总体质量密度的水平分布的描述有重要的关系.对流云中冰晶和霰的密度随时间的演变与地面降水也有很好的相关性.云水与冰相粒子的碰并作用过程是形成此次中小尺度暴雨对流云中主要的微物理过程.     

千米尺度数值预报模式对泰山地区暖季降水预报性能的评估

为深入认识对流可分辨模式对小尺度孤立地形区降水的预报性能,使用2017年暖季（5—9月）台站逐时降水观测数据,以小时尺度降水特征为指标,细致评估了千米尺度分辨率（3 km）的北京“睿图”短期数值预报子系统（RMAPS-ST）对泰山及其周边地区降水特征的预报能力,并对比了不同起报时次（北京时08时和20时）的预报差异。评估发现,RMAPS-ST可以再现泰山站的局地降水中心,但区域西南侧降水预报小于观测,而泰山站及其东北侧则相反。清晨和午后时段的降水预报与观测相比存在较大偏差。以泰山站为例,RMAPS-ST易于低估夜间至清晨时段的降水频率,这可能与模式对降水系统发展演变过程的预报偏差以及清晨泰山站弱降水事件的漏报有关;清晨泰山站降水强度的预报在不同起报时次的结果中存在差异,20时起报存在大幅度高估的问题,进而导致其暖季平均降水量预报大于观测,而08时起报对于清晨降水强度的高估不明显;08时起报易高估泰山站午后的降水频率,这与其午后短历时降水事件数预报偏多有关,模式对山区热动力场的预报偏差是午后降水空报的可能原因。小时尺度降水特征已应用于中国气象局区域数值预报模式的业务评估体系中,本研究结果也表明,此类评估有助于深入认识千米尺度数值预报模式对降水日内变化的预报能力,从而为精细化降水产品的订正提供更详实的科学依据。      

A radar-based verification of precipitation forecast for local convective storms

Local flash flood storms with a rapid hydrological response are a real challenge for quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). It is relevant to assess space domains, to which the QPF approaches are applicable. In this paper an attempt is made to evaluate the forecasting capability of a high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model by means of area-related QPF verification. The results presented concern two local convective events, which occurred in the Czech Republic (CR) on 13 and 15 July 2002 and caused local flash floods. We used the LM COSMO model (Lokall Model of the COSMO consortium) adapted to the horizontal resolution of 2.8 km over a model domain covering the CR. The 18 h forecast of convective precipitation was verified by using radar rainfall totals adjusted to the measured rain gauge data. The grid point-related root mean square error (RMSE) value was calculated over a square around the grid point under the assumption that rainfall values were randomly distributed within the square. The forecast accuracy was characterized by the mean RMSE over the whole verification domain. We attempt to show a dependence of both the RMSE field and the mean RMSE on the square size. The importance of a suitable merger between the radar and rain gauge datasets is demonstrated by a comparison between the verification results obtained with and without the gauge adjustment. The application of verification procedure demonstrates uncertainties in the precipitation forecasts. The model was integrated with initial conditions shifted by 0.5° distances. The four verifications, corresponding to the shifts in the four directions, show differences in the resulting QPF, which depend on the size of verification area and on the direction of the shift.     

Numerical simulation of the development of the convective boundary layer during a cold air outbreak

During cold air outbreaks, cold and stably stratified air masses are advected from land or ice surfaces over a warmer sea surface. Due to the heating from below, a convective boundary layer develops. For small fetches, convection is organized in the form of horizontal roll vortices, which at greater distances join in a zone with open or closed cells. The formation of the convective boundary layer, and the associated roll vortices, is simulated with a numerical model and results are compared with observations obtained during the MASEX experiment off the east coast of the United States. To validate the model, a comparison with a one-dimensional mixed-layer model is also made, with special attention given to the exact representation of the observed initial and boundary conditions. Comparisons between model results and observations show good qualitative and quantitative correspondence in mean temperature and heat flux profiles respectively at different distances from the coast. Maximum values of vertical velocity are well reproduced. Turbulent kinetic energy is found to be concentrated in the small updraft regions of the rolls, which is in accordance with observations from the MASEX-experiment.     

华南前汛期低空西南急流-锋面暴雨过程初期的中—中间尺度波状降水过程

在华南前汛期低空西南急流一锋面暴雨过程的初期.存在着一种自西南向东北方向传播的中尺度波状雨带或中到中间尺度的波状雨区.波状雨区的波长为20—100公里左右,传播速度为20—45公里/小时,对应的降水周期为1—4小时.波状雨区出现在500百帕槽前、850百帕冷切变线南面和地面锋面的暖区,以及850百帕冷切变南侧低空西南急流移近、加强的过程中.估计这种波状降水可能是暴雨过程中1—4小时的周期性强非地转西南风风速脉动造成的辐合或重力波触发产生的.中尺度波状雨区的持续旺盛发展可能产生新的中到中间尺度雨成冷性切变线雨带,形成强降水和第一个暴雨区.     

Structural characteristics of atmospheric temperature and humidity inside clouds of convective and stratiform precipitation in the rainy season over East Asia

In this study, a merged dataset constructed from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission precipitation radar rain products and Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive data is used to investigate the thermal structural characteristics of convective and stratiform precipitation in the rainy season (May–August) of 1998–2012 over East Asia. The results show that the storm tops for convective precipitation are higher than those for stratiform precipitation, because of the more unstable atmospheric motions for convective precipitation. Moreover, the storm tops are higher at 1200 UTC than at 0000 UTC over land regions for both convective and stratiform precipitation, and vice versa for ocean region. Additionally, temperature anomaly patterns inside convective and stratiform precipitating clouds show a negative anomaly of about 0–2 K, which results in cooling effects in the lower troposphere. This cooling is more obvious at 1200 UTC for stratiform precipitation. The positive anomaly that appears in the middle troposphere is more than 2 K, with the strongest warming at 300 hPa. Relative humidity anomaly patterns show a positive anomaly in the middle troposphere (700–500 hPa) prior to the occurrence of the two types of precipitation, and the increase in moisture is evident for stratiform precipitation.