A THREE-LAYER OCEAN CIRCULATION MODEL APPLICATION TO NUMERICAL STUDIES ON THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN CIRCULATION

The formulation and justification of a three-layer baroclinic ocean model developed to simulate thegeneral circulation of the ocean are described in this paper.Test of the model in simulating the annualmean circulation patterns in the North Pacific under the prescribed atmospheric forcing,which consists ofthe climatological surface wind stress and sea surface heat flux,and comparison of the results withobservations showed that the model basically simulated the large scale features of the annual meancirculation patterns in the North Pacific Ocean such as those of the intensified western boundary currentsand the North Equatorial Currents and Undercurrents.But due to the coarse resolution of the model,some details of these currents were poorly reproduced.The seasonal variations of the North Pacific Oceancirculation driven by the seasonal mean sea surface wind stress was calculated,the different aspects of theseresults were analyzed and the main current(the intensified western boundary currents)transports we     

A VERTICAL COORDINATE TRANSFORMATION FOR 3-D NUMERICAL MODELLING OF OCEAN CIRCULATION

A so called sine-sigma vertical coordinate transformation is proposed. A vertical implicit scheme is de-rived by using cubic-spline representation of vertical current profiles. The derived 3-D nurmericalmodel has been applied to simulate the water leved field and the vertical structures of wind-induced cur-rents in an enclosed rectangular region, and the tides in the Bohai Sea. The model is believed to besatisfactory after comparing its results with an analytical soclution and observed data from tidal staions.     

基于物理力学机制的滑坡数值预报模式: 综述、挑战与机遇

滑坡预测预报是地质灾害防治领域长期以来备受关注的前沿科学问题。当前的研究框架专注于滑坡的变形行为特征与外动力因素, 面临着普适性不强与预报精准度不高的双重瓶颈问题。基于目前研究现状, 系统梳理了滑带流变力学行为与强度弱化效应的内涵, 阐述了滑坡渐进破坏演化机制, 总结了滑坡预测预报模型所包含的类型, 并介绍了其中的典型模型, 指出当前研究主要存在如下问题: ①滑坡演化物理力学模型尚需扩展; ②预测预报模型未能充分结合滑坡演化过程和物理力学模型; ③物理力学模型预测与多场监测数据间的兼容性问题未能实际解决。针对上述问题, 阐述了基于物理力学过程的滑坡预测预报所面临的挑战, 并立足多学科融合与交叉, 提出了开展滑坡预测预报研究的新思路。新思路要求从滑坡滑带介质特性与流变力学行为出发, 建立滑坡演化过程物理力学模型, 紧密结合实时多场监测数据, 建立滑坡数值预报模式, 实现滑坡物理力学过程实时动态更新, 以期实现理论与技术的突破。      

Simulating the Upper Ocean Circulation on the Belize Shelf： An Application of a Triply Nested-Grid Ocean Circulation Model

We present a three-level nested-grid ocean circulation modeling system for the Belize shelf of the western Caribbean Sea. The nested-grid system has three subcomponents： a coarse-resolution outer model of the western Caribbean Sea; an intermediate-resolution middle model of the southern Mest〉American Barrier Reef System; and a fine-resolution inner model of the Belize shelf. The two-way nesting technique based on the semi-prognostic method is used to exchange information between the three subcomponents. We discuss two applications of the nested-grid system in this study. In the first application we simulate the seasonal mean circulation in the region, with the nested system forced by monthly mean surface fluxes and boundary forcing. The model results reproduce the general circulation features on the western Caribbean Sea and mest〉scale circulation features on the Belize shelf. In the second application, we simulate the storm-induced circulation during Hurricane Mitch in 1998, with the nested-grid system forced by the combination of monthly mean forcing and idealized wind stress associated with the storm. The model results demonstrate that the storm-induced currents transport a large amount of estuarine waters from coastal regions of Honduras and Guatemala to offshore reef atolls.     

集合卡尔曼滤波在流域水文模型流量预报中的应用

针对流域降雨入渗过程,引入集合卡尔曼滤波(EnKF)理论,视整个边坡流域为一个随机动态系统,将边坡流域流量观测值作为系统的输出,用集合卡尔曼滤波模型来描述系统的状态;结合流域流量计算方法,实现水文模型参数的随机动态估计,在有效获得待估参数的同时还给出估计值的不确定性.通过数值算例表明,集合卡尔曼滤波可以有效地对含噪声的量测数据进行处理,能够跟踪水文模型的动态变化.相对于常用最优化算法,集合卡尔曼滤波同时给出反演结果和先验知识的后验分布,显示出更好的实时性和可靠性.     

A real-time photo-realistic rendering algorithm of ocean color based on bio-optical model

A real-time photo-realistic rendering algorithm of ocean color is introduced in the paper, which considers the impact of ocean bio-optical model. The ocean bio-optical model mainly involves the phytoplankton, colored dissolved organic material (CDOM), inorganic suspended particle, etc., which have different contributions to absorption and scattering of light. We decompose the emergent light of the ocean surface into the reflected light from the sun and the sky, and the subsurface scattering light. We establish an ocean surface transmission model based on ocean bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) and the Fresnel law, and this model’s outputs would be the incident light parameters of subsurface scattering. Using ocean subsurface scattering algorithm combined with bio-optical model, we compute the scattering light emergent radiation in different directions. Then, we blend the reflection of sunlight and sky light to implement the real-time ocean color rendering in graphics processing unit (GPU). Finally, we use two kinds of radiance reflectance calculated by Hydrolight radiative transfer model and our algorithm to validate the physical reality of our method, and the results show that our algorithm can achieve real-time highly realistic ocean color scenes.     

ADI barotropic ocean model for simulation of Kuroshio intrusion into China southeastern waters

In this numerical model for simulating the Kuroshio intrusion into the East and South China Seas, vertically averaged marine hydrodynamic equations governing ocean currents and long-period waves are approximated by a set of two-time-level semi-implicit fimite difference equations. The major terms including the local acoeleration, sea-surface slope, Coriolis force and the bottom friction are approximated with the Crank-Nicholson scheme, which is of second order accuracy. The advection terms are approximated with the Leith scheme. The difference equations are split into two sets of alternating direction implicit equations, each of which has a tridiagonal matrix and can be easily solved. The model reproduces a major Kuroshio intrusion north of Luzon Island, one north of Taiwan Island, and one west of the Tokara Strait. The model shows a current system running from the Luzon Strait to the coast of Vietnam and Hainan Island, through the Taiwan Strait and then into the Tsushima Strait. The summer and winter monsoons generate several eddies in the South China Sea. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.     

Nash model parameter uncertainty analysis by AM-MCMC based on BFS and probabilistic flood forecasting

A hydrologic model consists of several parameters which are usually calibrated based on observed hydrologic processes. Due to the uncertainty of the hydrologic processes, model parameters are also uncertain, which further leads to the uncertainty of forecast results of a hydrologic model. Working with the Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS), Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation based Adaptive Metropolis method (AM-MCMC) was used to study parameter uncertainty of Nash model, while the probabilistic flood forecasting was made with the simulated samples of parameters of Nash model. The results of a case study shows that the AM-MCMC based on BFS proposed in this paper is suitable to obtain the posterior distribution of the parameters of Nash model according to the known information of the parameters. The use of Nash model and AM-MCMC based on BFS was able to make the probabilistic flood forecast as well as to find the mean and variance of flood discharge, which may be useful to estimate the risk of flood control decision.     

Perfectly matched layer for an elastic parabolic equation model in ocean acoustics

The perfectly matched layer(PML) is an effective technique for truncating unbounded domains with minimal spurious reflections. A fluid parabolic equation(PE) model applying PML technique was previously used to analyze the sound propagation problem in a range-dependent waveguide(Lu and Zhu, 2007). However, Lu and Zhu only considered a standard fluid PE to demonstrate the capability of the PML and did not take improved one-way models into consideration. They applied a [1/1] Padé approximant to the parabolic equation. The higher-order PEs are more accurate than standard ones when a very large angle propagation is considered. As for range-dependent problems, the techniques to handle the vertical interface between adjacent regions are mainly energy conserving and single-scattering. In this paper, the PML technique is generalized to the higher order elastic PE, as is to the higher order fluid PE. The correction of energy conserving is used in range-dependent waveguides. Simulation is made in both acoustic cases and seismo-acoustic cases. Range-independent and range-dependent waveguides are both adopted to test the accuracy and efficiency of this method. The numerical results illustrate that a PML is much more effective than an artificial absorbing layer(ABL) both in acoustic and seismo-acoustic sound propagation modeling.     

Lagrangian model of zooplankton dispersion: numerical schemes comparisons and parameter sensitivity tests

This paper presents two comparisons or tests for a Lagrangian model of zooplankton dispersion:numerical schemes and time steps.Firstly,we compared three numerical schemes using idealized circulations.Results show that the precisions of the advanced Adams-Bashfold-Moulton(ABM) method and the Runge-Kutta(RK) method were in the same order and both were much higher than that of the Euler method.Furthermore,the advanced ABM method is more efficient than the RK method in computational memory requirements and time consumption.We therefore chose the advanced ABM method as the Lagrangian particle-tracking algorithm.Secondly,we performed a sensitivity test for time steps,using outputs of the hydrodynamic model,Symphonie.Results show that the time step choices depend on the fluid response time that is related to the spatial resolution of velocity fields.The method introduced by Oliveira et al.in 2002 is suitable for choosing time steps of Lagrangian particle-tracking models,at least when only considering advection.     

Decadal variability shown by the arctic ocean hydrochemical data and reproduced by an ice-ocean model

The Arctic is experiencing a significant warming trend as well as a decadal oscillation. The atmospheric circulation represented by the Polar Vortex and the sea ice cover show decadal variabilities, while it has been difficult to reveal the decadal oscillation from the ocean interior. The recent distribution of Russian hydrochemical data collected from the Arctic Basin provides useful information on ocean interior variabilities. Silicate is used to provide the most valuable data for showing the boundary between the silicate-rich Pacific Water and the opposite Atlantic Water. Here, it is assumed that the silicate distribution receives minor influence from seasonal biological productivity and Siberian Rivers outflow. It shows a clear maximum around 100m depth in the Canada Basin, along with a vertical gradient below 100 m, which provides information on the vertical motion of the upper boundary of the Atlantic Water at a decadal time scale. The boundary shifts upward （downward）, as realized by the silicate reduction （increase） at a fixed depth, responding to a more intense （weaker） Polar Vortex or a positive （negative） phase of the Arctic Oscillation. A coupled ice-ocean model is employed to reconstruct this decadal oscillation.     

Development of a High-Resolution Coastal Circulation Model for the Ocean Observatory in Lunenburg Bay

An advanced ocean observatory has been established in Lunenburg Bay of Nova Scotia, Canada as part of an interdisciplinary research project of marine environmental prediction. The development of a high-resolution coastal circulation model is one of important components of the observatory. The model horizontal resolution is 60m and the vertical resolution is about 1 m. The coastal circulation model is used to simulate the semi-diurnal tidal circulation and associated nonlinear dynamics with the M2 forcing specified at the model open boundaries. The model is also used to simulate the storm-induced circulation in the bay during Hurricane Juan in September 2003, with the model forcing to be the combination of tides and remotely generated waves specified at the model open boundaries and wind stress applied at the sea surface. The model results demonstrate strong interactions between the local wind stress, tidal forcing, and remotely generated waves during this period. Comparison of model results with the surface elevation and current observations demonstrates that the coastal circulation model has reasonable skills in simulating the tidal and storm-induced circulation in the bay.     

Using genetic algorithms to calibrate a dimethylsulfide production model in the Arctic ocean

The global climate is intimately connected to changes in the polar oceans. The variability of sea ice coverage affects deep-water formations and large-scale thermohaline circulation patterns. The polar radiative budget is sensitive to sea-ice loss and consequent surface albedo changes. Aerosols and polar cloud microphysics are crucial players in the radiative energy balance of the Arctic Ocean. The main biogenic source of sulfate aerosols to the atmosphere above remote seas is dimethylsulfide (DMS). Recent research suggests the flux of DMS to the Arctic atmosphere may change markedly under global warming. This paper describes climate data and DMS production (based on the five years from 1998 to 2002) in the region of the Barents Sea (30–35°E and 70–80°N). A DMS model is introduced together with an updated calibration method. A genetic algorithm is used to calibrate the chlorophyll-a (CHL) measurements (based on satellite SeaWiFS data) and DMS content (determined from cruise data collected in the Arctic). Significant interannual variation of the CHL amount leads to significant interannual variability in the observed and modeled production of DMS in the study region. Strong DMS production in 1998 could have been caused by a large amount of ice algae being released in the southern region. Forcings from a general circulation model (CSIRO Mk3) were applied to the calibrated DMS model to predict the zonal mean sea-to-air flux of DMS for contemporary and enhanced greenhouse conditions at 70–80°N. It was found that significantly decreasing ice coverage, increasing sea surface temperature and decreasing mixed-layer depth could lead to annual DMS flux increases of more than 100% by the time of equivalent CO₂ tripling (the year 2080). This significant perturbation in the aerosol climate could have a large impact on the regional Arctic heat budget and consequences for global warming.     

Spurious dianeutral mixing in a global ocean model using spherical centroidal voronoi tessellations

In order to quantitatively evaluate the spurious dianeutral mixing in a global ocean model MPAS-Ocean(Model for Prediction Across Scales) using a spherical centroidal voronoi tessellations developed jointly by the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Los Alamos National Laboratory in the United States, we choose z* vertical coordinate system in MPAS-Ocean, in which all physical mixing processes, such as convection adjustment and explicit diffusion parameter schemes, are omitted, using a linear equation of state. By calculating the Reference Potential Energy(RPE), front revolution position, time rate of RPE change, probability density function distribution and dimensionless parameter χ, from the perspectives of resolution, viscosity, Horizontal Grid Reynolds Number(HGRN), Re?, and momentum transmission scheme, using two ideal cases, overflow and baroclinic eddy channel, we qualitatively analyze the simulation results by comparison with the three non-isopycnal models in Ilicak et al.(2012), i.e., MITGCM, MOM, and ROMS. The results show that the spurious dianeutral mixing in the MPAS-Ocean increases over time. The spurious dianeutral transport is proportional to the HGRN directly and is reduced by increasing the lateral viscosity or using a finer resolution to control HGRN. When the HGRN is less than 10, spurious transport is reduced significantly. When using the proper viscosity closure, MPAS-Ocean performs better than MITGCM and MOM, closely to ROMS, in the 2D case without rotation, and much better than the above-mentioned three ocean models under the condition of 3D space with rotation due to the cell area difference between the hexagon cell and the quadrilateral cell with the same resolution. Both the Zalesak(1979) flux corrected transport scheme and Leith closure in MPAS-Ocean play an excellent role in reducing spurious dianeutral mixing. The performance of Leith scheme is preferable to the condition of three-dimensional baroclinic eddy.     

The application of a numerical model to coastal surface water waves

Based on the Navier-Stokes Equations (NSE), numerical simulation with fine grids is conducted to simulate the coastal surface wave changes, including wave generation, propagation, transformation and interactions between waves and structures. This numerical model has been tested for the generation of the desired incident waves, including both regular and random waves. Some numerical results of this model are compared with available experimental data. In order to apply this model to actual cases, boundary conditions are considered in detail for different shoreline types (beach or breakwater, slope or vertical wall, etc. ). Finally, the utility of the model to a real coastal area is shown by applying it to a fishing port located in Shidao, Rongcheng, Shandong Province, P.R. China.     

A VOF-based numerical model for breaking waves in surf zone

This paper introduces a numerical model for studying the evolution of a periodic wave train, shoaling, and breaking in surf zone. The model can solve the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations for a mean flow, and (he k-s equations for turbulence kinetic energy k and turbulence dissipation rate e. To track a free surface, the volume of fluid (VOF) function, satisfying the advection equation was introduced. In the numerical treatment, third-order upwind difference scheme was applied to the convection terms of the RANS equations in order to reduce the effect of numerical viscosity. The shoaling and breaking processes of a periodic wave train on gently sloping beaches were modeled. The computed wave heights of a sloping beach and the distribution of breaking wave pressure on a vertical wall were compared with laboratory data.     

APPLICATION OF FUZZY OPTIMIZATION MODEL IN ECOLOGICAL SECURITY PRE-WARNING

1INTRODUCTIONAs the basis of the human existence and sustainable de-velopment, the ecological security has become a prob-lem increasingly inviting the attention of the whole so-cietyand the government. Ecological security pre-warn-ing is a kind of early i…     

碧海蓝天北戴河

初到北戴河,只觉得似曾相识。蓝天白云、碧海金沙、青松、翠柏、绿树红墙,这些画面都曾在电视上看过,而在我的想象中,北戴河也确实应该如此美丽。我不禁想起了很久前读过的诗句：“与君初相见,犹如故人归。”