Seismicity in the block mountains between Halle and Leipzig,Central Germany: centroid moment tensors,ground motion simulation,and felt intensities of two <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> ≈ 3 earthquakes in 2015 and 2017

On April 29, 2017 at 0:56 UTC (2:56 local time), an M_W =?2.8 earthquake struck the metropolitan area between Leipzig and Halle, Germany, near the small town of Markranstädt. The earthquake was felt within 50 km from the epicenter and reached a local intensity of I₀ = IV. Already in 2015 and only 15 km northwest of the epicenter, a M_W =?3.2 earthquake struck the area with a similar large felt radius and I₀ = IV. More than 1.1 million people live in the region, and the unusual occurrence of the two earthquakes led to public attention, because the tectonic activity is unclear and induced earthquakes have occurred in neighboring regions. Historical earthquakes south of Leipzig had estimated magnitudes up to M_W ≈?5 and coincide with NW-SE striking crustal basement faults. We use different seismological methods to analyze the two recent earthquakes and discuss them in the context of the known tectonic structures and historical seismicity. Novel stochastic full waveform simulation and inversion approaches are adapted for the application to weak, local earthquakes, to analyze mechanisms and ground motions and their relation to observed intensities. We find NW-SE striking normal faulting mechanisms for both earthquakes and centroid depths of 26 and 29 km. The earthquakes are located where faults with large vertical offsets of several hundred meters and Hercynian strike have developed since the Mesozoic. We use a stochastic full waveform simulation to explain the local peak ground velocities and calibrate the method to simulate intensities. Since the area is densely populated and has sensitive infrastructure, we simulate scenarios assuming that a 12-km long fault segment between the two recent earthquakes is ruptured and study the impact of rupture parameters on ground motions and expected damage.     

A statistical analysis of seismo-ionospheric TEC anomalies before 63 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in Turkey during 2003–2016

In this study, pre-seismic and post-seismic total electron content (TEC) anomalies of 63 M_w?≥?5.0 earthquakes in Turkey (36°–42°N, 26°–45°E) were statistically investigated. The largest earthquake that occurred in Turkey during 2003–2016 is the M_w 7.1 Van earthquake on October 23, 2011. The TEC data of epicenters is obtained from CODE-GIM using a simple 4-point bivariate interpolation. The anomalies of TEC variations were determined by using a quartile-based running median process. In order to validate GIM results, we used the GPS-TEC data of available four IGS stations within the size of the Van earthquake preparation area. The anomalies that are detected by GIM and GPS-TEC show a similar pattern. Accordingly, the results obtained with CODE-GIM are reliable. The statistical results show that there are not prominent earthquake precursors for M_w?≤?6.0 earthquakes in Turkey.     

Comparison of SPT and <Emphasis Type="Italic">V</Emphasis><Subscript>s</Subscript>-based liquefaction analyses: a case study in Erciş (Van,Turkey)

Liquefaction which is one of the most destructive ground deformations occurs during an earthquake in saturated or partially saturated silty and sandy soils, which may cause serious damages such as settlement and tilting of structures due to shear strength loss of soils. Standard (SPT) and cone (CPT) penetration tests as well as the shear wave velocity (V _s)-based methods are commonly used for the determination of liquefaction potential. In this research, it was aimed to compare the SPT and V _s-based liquefaction analysis methods by generating different earthquake scenarios. Accordingly, the Erci? residential area, which was mostly affected by the 2011 Van earthquake (M _w = 7.1), was chosen as the model site. Erci? (Van, Turkey) and its surroundings settle on an alluvial plain which consists of silty and sandy layers with shallow groundwater level. Moreover, Çald?ran, Erci?–Kocap?nar and Van Fault Zones are the major seismic sources of the region which have a significant potential of producing large magnitude earthquakes. After liquefaction assessments, the liquefaction potential in the western part of the region and in the coastal regions nearby the Lake Van is found to be higher than the other locations. Thus, it can be stated that the soil tightness and groundwater level dominantly control the liquefaction potential. In addition, the lateral spreading and sand boiling spots observed after the 23rd October 2011 Van earthquake overlap the scenario boundaries predicted in this study. Eventually, the use of V _s-based liquefaction analysis in collaboration with the SPT results is quite advantageous to assess the rate of liquefaction in a specific area.     

Evaluation of the damping modification factor for structures subjected to near-fault ground motions

The damping modification factor (DMF) has been extensively used in earthquake engineering to describe the variation of structural responses due to varied damping ratios. It is known that DMFs are dependent not only on structural dynamic properties but also on characteristics of ground motions. DMFs regulated in current seismic codes are generally developed based on far-fault ground motions and are inappropriately used in structural design where pulse-like near-fault ground motions are involved. In this paper, statistical investigation of the DMF is performed based on 50 carefully selected pulse-like near-fault ground motions. It is observed that DMFs for pulse-like ground motions exhibit significant dependence on the pulse period T _p in a specific period range. If the period of the structure in response is close to the pulse period, the DMF attains the same level as that derived from far-fault ground motions; as the period of the structure is considerably larger or smaller than the pulse period T _p , the response reduction effect by the increased damping ratio is generally small, except for large earthquakes with long pulse periods, which exhibit significant reduction of response for structures with periods smaller than T _p . Based on the statistical results of DMFs, the empirical formulas for estimating DMFs for displacement, velocity and acceleration spectra are proposed, the effect of structural period, pulse period and damping ratio are considered in the formulas, and the formulas are designed to satisfy the specific reliability requirement in the period range of 0.1 < T/T _p  < 1, which is of engineering interest.     

The aftermath of 2011 Van earthquakes: evaluation of strong motion, geotechnical and structural issues

October 23rd, 2011 M _L 6.7 (M _w 7.2 KOERI) Tabanli-Van Earthquake caused damage in a widespread area specifically in the settlement regions throughout the Lake Van. A number of 58 buildings totally collapsed during the shake with 52 of them however, reported to be in Ercis district. 17 days after this destructive event, another earthquake of M _L 5.6 hit the region again on the 9th of November having the epicentral location at Edremit district. The second earthquake mostly affected the central region of Van province with a number of 25 totally collapsed buildings and furthermore it significantly increased the existing structural damages. Strong motion records from both earthquakes and their impacts on structures as well as geotechnical issues are studied in this paper. Extensive liquefaction triggered lateral spread, landslide and slope failure cases were observed mainly at non-residential areas. Soil amplification is evaluated to be one of the main reasons for the heavy damage occurred in Ercis. Furthermore, site investigations and damage assessment performed after each earthquake proved that the observed damages are strongly correlated with insufficient qualities of structural materials, inadequate detailing and poor workmanship.     

Coseismic Coulomb failure stress changes caused by the 2017 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis>7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake,and its relationship with the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

On August 8, 2017, a M7.0 earthquake occurred in Jiuzhaigou County, Sichuan Province, China, resulting in significant casualties and property damage. Therefore, it is critical to identify the areas of potential aftershocks before reconstruction and re-settling people to avoid future disasters. Based on the elastic dislocation theory and a multi-layered lithospheric model, we calculate the Coulomb failure stress changes caused by the Wenchuan and Jiuzhaigou earthquakes, discuss the relationship between the M_w7.9 Wenchuan and M7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquakes, and analyze the influence of the aftershock distribution and stress changes on the major faults in this region caused by the Jiuzhaigou earthquake. The co- and post-seismic stress changes caused by the Wenchuan earthquake significantly increased the stress accumulation at the hypocenter of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake. Therefore, the occurrence of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake was probably stimulated by the Wenchuan earthquake. The aftershock distribution is well explained by the co-seismic stress changes of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake. The stress accumulation and corresponding seismic hazard on the Maqu-Heye segment of the East Kunlun fault and the northern extremity of the Huya fault has been further increased by the Jiuzhaigou earthquake.     

Strong motion characteristics of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> 6.6 Lushan earthquake,Sichuan, China — an insight into the spatial difference of a typical thrust fault earthquake

Near-field strong ground motions are useful for engineering seismology studies and seismic design, but dense observation networks of damaging earthquakes are still rare. In this study, based on the strong-motion data from the M w 6.6 Lushan earthquake, the ground motion parameters in different spatial regions are systematically analyzed, and the contributions from different effects, like the hanging-wall effect, directivity effect, and attenuation effect are separated to the extent possible. Different engineering parameters from the observed ground motions are compared with the local design response spectra and a new attenuation relation of Western China. General results indicate that the high frequency ground motion, like the peak ground acceleration, on two sides of the fault plane is sensitive to the hanging-wall effect, whereas the low frequency ground motion, like the long period spectral acceleration, in the rupture propagation direction is affected by the directivity effect. Moreover, although the M w 6.6 Lushan earthquake is not a large magnitude event, the spatial difference of ground motion is still obvious; thus, for a thrust faulting earthquake, in addition to the hanging effect, the directivity effect should also be considered.     

Probabilistic aftershock hazard analysis,two case studies in West and Northwest Iran

Aftershock hazard maps contain the essential information for search and rescue process, and re-occupation after a main-shock. Accordingly, the main purposes of this article are to study the aftershock decay parameters and to estimate the expected high-frequency ground motions (i.e., Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)) for recent large earthquakes in the Iranian plateau. For this aim, the Ahar-Varzaghan doublet earthquake (August 11, 2012; M _N =6.5, M _N =6.3), and the Ilam (Murmuri) earthquake (August 18, 2014 ; M _N =6.2) have been selected. The earthquake catalogue has been collected based on the Gardner and Knopoff (Bull Seismol Soc Am 64(5), 1363-1367, 1974) temporal and spatial windowing technique. The magnitude of completeness and the seismicity parameters (a,??b) and the modified Omori law parameters (P,??K,??C) have been determined for these two earthquakes in the 14, 30, and 60 days after the mainshocks. Also, the temporal changes of parameters (a,??b,??P,??K,??C) have been studied. The aftershock hazard maps for the probability of exceedance (33%) have been computed in the time periods of 14, 30, and 60 days after the Ahar-Varzaghan and Ilam (Murmuri) earthquakes. For calculating the expected PGA of aftershocks, the regional and global ground motion prediction equations have been utilized. Amplification factor based on the site classes has also been implied in the calculation of PGA. These aftershock hazard maps show an agreement between the PGAs of large aftershocks and the forecasted PGAs. Also, the significant role of b parameter in the Ilam (Murmuri) probabilistic aftershock hazard maps has been investigated.     

Experience in registration of variations caused by strong earthquakes in the level and physicochemical parameters of ground waters in the piezometric wells: the case of Kamchatka

The hardware complex that was produced by OOO Polynom, Khabarovsk, for registration of the level, temperature, and electrical conductivity of ground water in wells and meteorological parameters (atmospheric pressure, air temperature) at a measurement frequency from 5 min to 1 h is described. The equipment is installed in the wells of Kamchatka and has been used for several years to register variations caused by earthquakes in the parameters of ground waters. Different variations in measured parameters of ground waters due to strong earthquakes of February 28, 2013, M _W = 6.8 and May 24, 2013, M _W = 8.3 are registered with this equipment in wells YuZ-5 and E-1. The registered variations and their systematization are described taking into account the mechanisms of a seismic impact on the state of the well–water-saturated rock system.     

Field evidence and numerical investigation of the \text{ M}_\mathrm{w}= 7.1 October 23 Van, Tabanlı and the \text{ M}_\mathrm{W}> 5.7 November earthquakes of 2011

On Sunday, October 23rd, 2011, the Van province, in the Eastern Turkey, was stricken by a magnitude $\text{ M}_{\mathrm{w}} \!=\! 7.1$ earthquake. The maximum horizontal peak ground acceleration, i.e. 0.182 g, was measured from the seismic station in Muradiye, at about 40 km from the epicenter. Several $\text{ M}_\mathrm{w} > 5.7$ strong motion aftershocks were recorded in November 2011. The exceptionally rich sequence of ground motions was due to the dense seismotectonic activity of the Eastern Turkey, where many active historical faults exist and newly generated can also be found because of the ongoing continental collision between the Arabian and the Eurasian Plates. The 2011 Van earthquake sequence caused 644 casualties, 1966 injuries with 252 rescues; the total economic losses are estimated at around 1 billion US dollars. The present paper deals with the seismological and structural damage assessment of two major seismic events and aftershock sequences in Van region; special emphasis is on the findings of the site investigations performed in the aftermath of the major seismic event. The performed investigation has shown that there is substantial field evidence demonstrating that the losses generated to the local social communities were caused by typical structural and non-structural deficiencies that have been surveyed in the past in several moderate-to-major earthquakes worldwide, especially in poor countries. Comprehensive numerical simulations were also carried out to assess the characteristics of the strong motion records and their effects on existing representative building type of structures in the earthquake-affected region. It was found that the local building stock is highly vulnerable and requires urgent major structural interventions for seismic strengthening. A cost-efficient retrofitting scheme is however not straightforward. It should be a trade-off between two competing aspects: the use of innovative materials and technologies on one hand, and the low-quality of the workmanships and lack of adequate quality control during construction phase, which are available in the Van province, on the other hand.     

Anomalous Variation in GPS TEC,Land and Ocean Parameters Prior to 3 Earthquakes

The present study reports the analysis of GPS TEC prior to 3 earthquakes (M > 6.0). The earthquakes are: (1) Loyalty Island (22°36′S, 170°54′E) on 19 January 2009 (M = 6.6), (2) Samoa Island (15°29′S, 172°5′W) on 30 August 2009 (M = 6.6), and (3) Tohoku (38°19′N, 142°22′E) on 11 March 2011 (M = 9.0). In an effort to search for a precursory signature we analysed the land and ocean parameters prior to the earthquakes, namely SLHF (Land) and SST (Ocean). The GPS TEC data indicate an anomalous behaviour from 1–13 days prior to earthquakes. The main purpose of this study was to explore and demonstrate the possibility of any changes in TEC, SST, and SLHF before, during and after the earthquakes which occurred near or beneath an ocean. This study may lead to better understanding of response of land, ocean, and ionosphere parameters prior to seismic activities.     

Evaluation of a proposed damage index for a set of earthquakes

A damage index computed for a set of ground motions recorded in 11 earthquakes, including the 1985 Mexico City earthquake, the 2010 Chile earthquake, the 2011 Christchurch earthquake, and the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake, is proposed in this paper. The proposed damage index uses some basic parameters of the response of an SDOF system including the maximum hysteretic energy per unit mass that a structure can dissipate under strong ground motions. Control of lateral displacements, especially roof drift ratio of buildings, was found to be important in minimizing seismic damage. The values and distribution of the computed damage index are consistent with global building damage observations for the selected earthquakes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic response of reduced micropolar elastic half-space

This paper explores reduced micropolar theory to simulate ground motion during an earthquake. In this theory, rotational motions are kinematically independent of translational motions. Analytical expressions for ground displacement and rotational motions due to a buried seismic source are presented in this paper. This theory requires two additional material constants which characterise the microstructure of the medium compared with linear elastic theory. Ground motions are simulated for an earthquake of magnitude (M _w) 5.0. The sensitivity of ground motion to these new material constants is reported. It is observed that rotations are sensitive to microstructure of the medium. A comparison with recorded rotations of the M _w 5.2 Izu peninsula, Japan event is also presented in this article.     

Earthquake precursory signatures in electromagnetic radiation measurements in terms of day-to-day fractal spectral exponent variation: analysis of the eastern Aegean 13/04/2017–20/07/2017 seismic activity

The recent seismic activity in the eastern Aegean Sea, foregrounded by two major (M_L?=?6.1 and M_L?=?6.2) earthquakes occurring near Lesvos and Kos islands, respectively, is investigated in this work. Electromagnetic radiation measurements across different frequency bands and antenna orientations from a monitoring station in Agia Paraskevi, Lesvos Island, are analysed in order to reveal earthquake precursory signatures hidden in the electromagnetic data sequence. A straightforward, data-driven approach is employed in which day-to-day variations of the fractal characteristics of the measurements are adaptively monitored via a fractal spectral exponent similarity measure. The evolution of the fractal day-to-day variation in a 99-day period, which includes the two major earthquakes, shows a sustained, sudden increase lasting 1 to 4 days before every earthquake cluster of M_L?=?4.0 and above. Most importantly, this day-to-day variation subsides shortly after and remains relatively low during the absence of earthquakes, thus alleviating the emergence of false alarms.     

A study of Guptkashi,Uttarakhand earthquake of 6 February 2017 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript>5.3) in the Himalayan arc and implications for ground motion estimation

The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake’s location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth (H?=?19 km), the seismic moment (M₀?=?1.12×10¹⁷ Nm, M _w 5.3), the focal mechanism (φ?=?280°, δ?=?14°, λ?=?84°), the source radius (a?=?1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δσ _s ~22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω^?2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q(f)?=?500f^0.9, κ?=?0.04 s, and f_max?=?infinite, and a stress drop of Δσ?=?70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤?200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6?≤?M _w ?≤?6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.     

Ground motion estimation at the farthest liquefaction site during the 2011 off the pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake

Serious damage due to soil liquefaction occurred in a wide area of the Tohoku and the Kanto regions in Japan during 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (M_W 9.0). The farthest liquefied site from the epicenter of the 2011 main shock is Ikenouchi, Minamiboso City, whose epicentral distance is approximately 440 km. Evaluation of strong ground motions at Ikenouchi is very important to understand why liquefaction was observed in such a far site. For this purpose, in-situ geotechnical investigations including aftershock observation were carried out at Ikenouchi. Then, the ground motions at Ikenouchi during the 2011 main shock was estimated based on the site-effect substitution method considering the microtremor H/V spectral ratios and the aftershock observation results. Finally, 3-D effective stress analyses were carried out using a FEM code ‘FLIP’ to understand how site-specific characteristics of strong ground motions affected the behavior of the ground including liquefaction. A striking feature of the estimated waveforms at the target site is that the waveforms include a much larger number of cycles compared to the records at permanent observation stations around the target site. Such a site-specific feature of strong ground motions was one of the main causes of the occurrence of liquefaction 440 km away from the epicenter. The result suggests the importance of taking into account not only soil properties but also site-specific characteristics of strong ground motions for a rational assessment of liquefaction for future large earthquakes.     

Site Specific Ground Motion Modeling and Seismic Response Analysis for Microzonation of Baku,Azerbaijan

We investigated ground response for Baku (Azerbaijan) from two earthquakes of magnitude M6.3 occurred in Caspian Sea (characterized as a near event) and M7.5 in Shamakhi (characterized as a remote extreme event). S-wave velocity with the average shear wave velocity over the topmost 30 m of soil is obtained by experimental method from the V _P values measured for the soils. The downtown part of Baku city is characterized by low V_S30 values (< 250 m/s), related to sand, water-saturated sand, gravel-pebble, and limestone with clay. High surface PGA of 240 gal for the M7.5 event and of about 190 gal for the M6.3 event, and hence a high ground motion amplification, is observed in the shoreline area, through downtown, in the north-west, and in the east parts of Baku city with soft clays, loamy sands, gravel, sediments.     

A measure of the capacity of earthquake ground motions to damage structures

Even though a number of parameters have been proposed in the literature for measuring the capacity of earthquake ground motions to damage structures, most of them are not consistent with building damage observed during earthquakes. In this study, a parameter for measuring seismic damage capacity is proposed. It uses the energy dissipated by a structure in inelastic deformations and a structural overall drift, and it is evaluated for three typical ground motions recorded in severe earthquakes. By using this parameter, consistent results with building damage observed in these earthquakes are obtained, which indicate the importance of displacement control for minimizing seismic damage.     

Ground motion prediction equations for horizontal and vertical components of acceleration in Northern Iran

Recent studies have shown that the vertical component of ground motion can be quite destructive on a variety of structural systems. Development of response spectrum for design of buildings subjected to vertical component of earthquake needs ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The existing GMPEs for northern Iranian plateau are proposed for the horizontal component of earthquake, and there is not any specified GMPE for the vertical component of earthquake in this region. Determination of GMPEs is mostly based on regression analyses on earthquake parameters such as magnitude, site class, distance, and spectral amplitudes. In this study, 325 three-component records of 55 earthquakes with magnitude ranging from M _w 4.1 to M _w 7.3 are used for estimation on the regression coefficients. Records with distances less than 300 km are selected for analyses in the database. The regression analyses on earthquake parameters results in determination of GMPEs for peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for both horizontal and vertical components of the ground motion. The correlation between the models for vertical and horizontal GMPEs is studied in details. These models are later compared with some other available GMPEs. According to the result of this investigation, the proposed GMPEs are in agreement with the other relationships that were developed based on the local and regional data.     

Availability of seismic vulnerability index (Kg) in the assessment of building damage in Van,Eastern Turkey

The seismic vulnerability index(Kg) is a parameter that depends on the dynamic properties of soil. With this parameter, it is possible to evaluate the vulnerability of a point-based site under strong ground motion. Since it is related to the natural vibration period and amplification factor, the parameter can be calculated for both soil and structure. In this study, HVSR microtremor measurements are recorded at more than 200 points in the Van region to generate a seismic vulnerability index map. After generating the map, it is determined that the hazard potential and seismic vulnerability index is high at the sites close to Van Lake and at the densely populated city center. Damage information of the buildings investigated after the 2011 Van earthquakes(Mw = 7.1) are placed on the seismic vulnerability index map and it is realized that there may be a correlation between the damage and the seismic vulnerability index. There is a high correlation, approximately 80 percent, between the damage rate map based on the damaged building data and the K_g values. In addition, vulnerability indexes of buildings are calculated and the effect of local soil conditions and building properties on the damage levels are determined. From the results of this study and the site observations after the 2011 Van earthquakes, it is found that structural damage is not only structure-dependent but is also related to the dynamic behavior of soil layers and local soil conditions.