Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling

This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand.     

Vulnerability and risk: comparing assessment approaches

The concepts vulnerability and risk are of great importance in the fields of climate change and natural hazards. Confusion is asserted in the terminology used by the respective communities, and a large conceptual literature has not solved this problem. This affects the communication within and between the two communities and the comparison of results from vulnerability and risk assessments. This paper argues that the main difference between methods to assess vulnerability and risk in the climate and the disaster communities is not a conceptual one, but rather different terminologies are used. This point is made using a formal framework of vulnerability to climate change that makes the structure of vulnerability and risk assessments explicit. The framework distinguishes three assessment approaches in the field of vulnerability to climate change, which recur—under different labels—in the risk assessment approaches analysed. While within each community, the same terms are ambiguously used to refer to more than one assessment approach, the confusion is enhanced between the two communities by using different labels for very similar approaches. As an application of the results, similarities and differences between two assessment tools are analysed: the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment model (DIVA) for the case of vulnerability to climate change and the CATastrophe SIMulation model (CatSim) for risk of natural hazards.     

Geoheritage values in the Cat Ba islands, Vietnam

Geological wonders have been generally known as natural wonderful products. Resulted from geological processes, geological wonders are diverse in size that have geoheritage values that should be protected from damaging of substance, form and natural development. In a large scale, geological wonders can be geoheritage areas, containing several geodiversity elements that are geologically important or in a smaller scale, they can be geosites of heritage values (or geoheritage sites). In the delimitation of areas, having geoheritage values and the establishment of geoparks, the first thing is to recognise them as geosites and geoheritage areas that indicate great geological values. Besides the Ha Long bay, the world natural heritage with its outstanding aesthetic and geological values, the Cat Ba islands are typical and grandeur karst landscapes formed in tropical condition. Based on the geodiversity elements with their own geoheritage values on aesthetics, uniqueness and grandeur in the Cat Ba islands, the authors have recognised three geoheritage areas: the south cape of the Cat Ba embayment, Tung Gau (shelter), and the Lan Ha bay. Sites where Brachiopods, Crinoids and Tetracorals are exposed on the way through the island are considered as palaeontological geosites. The folds of limestone layers in the northern part of Cat Co 3 beach, with typical turbidite structures in carbonate formations are considered as a lithological geosite. The Devonian-Carboniferous boundary near the Cat Co 3 beach is regarded as a stratigraphical geosite while Que Kem and Turtle islands, etc. are considered as geomorphological geosites.     

Web information monitoring and crowdsourcing for promoting and enhancing the Algerian geoheritage

The documentation and management of information concerning geological sites are important activities in all the steps of the geoheritage conservation and its day-to-day management. This documentation is mostly available on the web; it includes varied types of data such as pictures, scientific publications, news, and blog articles. In order to ensure the efficient management of the geoheritage resources, scientists and people involved in the promotion of the geoheritage and geotourism should have access to this documentation and kept updated of the most recent and relevant information. In this study, we propose the development of a web information monitoring system that automates the search and the collection of different types of documents related to the Algerian geosites available on the web. It is designed as a tool that continuously browses the web using the most popular search engines and then disseminates the results to the users through periodic newsletters. This proposed system will also serve to chronologically organize all the pictures of geosites gathered from the web and thus in order to study the evolution of Algerian geosites over time. For this purpose, we use one of the crowdsourcing methods in the field of knowledge management that is games with a purpose (GWAP). The idea here is to involve people in sorting pictures of geosites through a playful interface. The results obtained show that this system is a valuable tool that can assist geoscientists and decision makers in enhancing the geoheritage.     

Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework

The paper deals with the development of a general as well as integrative and holistic framework to systematize and assess vulnerability, risk and adaptation. The framework is a thinking tool meant as a heuristic that outlines key factors and different dimensions that need to be addressed when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural hazards and climate change. The approach underlines that the key factors of such a common framework are related to the exposure of a society or system to a hazard or stressor, the susceptibility of the system or community exposed, and its resilience and adaptive capacity. Additionally, it underlines the necessity to consider key factors and multiple thematic dimensions when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural and socio-natural hazards. In this regard, it shows key linkages between the different concepts used within the disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) research. Further, it helps to illustrate the strong relationships between different concepts used in DRM and CCA. The framework is also a tool for communicating complexity and stresses the need for societal change in order to reduce risk and to promote adaptation. With regard to this, the policy relevance of the framework and first results of its application are outlined. Overall, the framework presented enhances the discussion on how to frame and link vulnerability, disaster risk, risk management and adaptation concepts.     

Viewpoint geosites — values,conservation and management issues

Viewpoint geosites are a specific category of geosites, defined as locations which allow for unobstructed observation of the surrounding landscape and comprehension of Earth history recorded in rocks, structures and landforms visible from this locality. They have been poorly addressed in literature so far and this paper, primarily based on field observations and literature review, aims to discuss their significance and associated management and geoeducation issues. Viewpoint geosites do not necessarily have an intrinsic value related to geology or geomorphology but offer a view towards features and areas which do have such values. The role of a viewpoint geosite may be played by both natural features such as tors, crags, mountain tops, cliff edges, as well as by man-made structures erected intentionally to provide panoramic views and converted to play such a role. Paradoxically, although viewpoint geosites are the most suitable places to develop landscape interpretation, any interpretation facilities may severely interfere with the natural scenery, spoiling the aesthetic qualities of the landscape. Publications and mobile applications are alternative means to develop interpretation programmes. As other types of geosites, viewpoint geosites require management strategies that should focus on sustaining the view by periodic removal of vegetation if necessary, getting right balance between on-site facilities and scenic values, preventing soil erosion, and ensuring visitor safety.     

Empirical fragility and vulnerability curves for buildings exposed to slow-moving landslides at medium and large scales

Slow-moving landslides yearly induce huge economic losses worldwide in terms of damage to facilities and interruption of human activities. Within the landslide risk management framework, the consequence analysis is a key step entailing procedures mainly based on identifying and quantifying the exposed elements, defining an intensity criterion and assessing the expected losses. This paper presents a two-scale (medium and large) procedure for vulnerability assessment of buildings located in areas affected by slow-moving landslides. Their intensity derives from Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) satellite data analysis, which in the last decade proved to be capable of providing cost-effective long-term displacement archives. The analyses carried out on two study areas of southern Italy (one per each of the addressed scales) lead to the generation, as an absolute novelty, of both empirical fragility and vulnerability curves for buildings in slow-moving landslide-affected areas. These curves, once further validated, can be valuably used as tools for consequence forecasting purposes and, more in general, for planning the most suitable slow-moving landslide risk mitigation strategies.     

Flood risk assessment for informal settlements

The urban informal settlements are particularly vulnerable to flooding events, due to both their generally poor quality of construction and high population density. An integrated approach to the analysis of flooding risk of informal settlements should take into account, and propagate, the many sources of uncertainty affecting the problem, ranging from the characterization of rainfall curve and flooding hazard to the characterization of the vulnerability of the portfolio of buildings. This paper proposes a probabilistic and modular approach for calculating the flooding risk in terms of the mean annual frequency of exceeding a specific limit state for each building within the informal settlement and the expected number of people affected (if the area is not evacuated). The flooding risk in this approach is calculated by the convolution of flooding hazard and flooding fragility for a specified limit state for each structure within the portfolio of buildings. This is achieved by employing the flooding height as an intermediate variable bridging over the fragility and hazard calculations. The focus of this paper is on an ultimate limit state where the life of slum dwellers is endangered by flooding. The fragility is calculated by using a logic tree procedure where several possible combinations of building features/construction details, and their eventual outcome in terms of the necessity to perform structural analysis or the application of nominal threshold flood heights, are taken into account. The logic tree branch probabilities are characterized based on both the orthophoto recognition and the sample in situ building survey. The application of the methodology is presented for Suna, a sub-ward of Dar es Salaam City (Tanzania) in the Msimbazi River basin having a high concentration of informal settlements.     

A methodology to estimate seismic vulnerability of health facilities. Case study: Mexico City,Mexico

We developed a model to estimate seismic vulnerability of health facilities in Mexico City, Mexico, following these steps: (1) designing a theoretical framework (TF) to measure structural, non-structural, functional, and administrative-organizational vulnerabilities; (2) measurement of the vulnerability conditions of the analyzed facility by using the TF; and (3) estimation of the hospital’s seismic vulnerability by comparing the measured vulnerability to the TF’s vulnerability indicators by taking into account the optimal case. The TF was developed considering a scoring system and international standards for risk management in hospitals. The methodology establishes the degree of vulnerability of the analyzed institution as well as its interrelations with external infrastructure systems. This tool also identifies existing failures to estimate expected damage. The methodology was applied to the National Cardiology Hospital, the Children’s Hospital “Dr. Federico Gómez,” and the “Hospital de Jesus” of Mexico City. The vulnerability problems in these three hospitals are common within them, and some of the main causes of vulnerability found are: (1) the lack of technology to resistant seismic shaking; (2) the need to develop or update disaster response plans; (3) the need of periodic and proper maintenance to hospitals’ buildings; (4) the lack of sufficient financial resources for vulnerability reduction projects and autonomous operations of the hospital during 3–5 days after a disaster occurs. We believe that vulnerability in these health facilities can be reduced with low-cost procedures and that the methodology developed here will support the decision-making processes to reduce seismic risk in Mexico City.     

Environmental fragility framework for water supply systems: a case study in the Paulista Macro Metropolis area (SE Brazil)

Water resources availability is increasingly constrained, considering the quality and quantity available for use. There is an urgent need of recovering this availability, focusing on the planning and management process of water supply systems. One of the main threats to water resources is related to erosion effects, namely widespread pollution load and the silting of watercourses and reservoirs useful life reduction. The objective of this study was to evaluate water supply systems environmental fragility within the Paulista Macro Metropolis area and to use the results to develop environmental zone classes to orient territorial planning. The study was conducted in seven superficial water supply systems of the aforementioned region. Environmental fragility evaluation was focused on four environmental variables that represent natural vulnerability to erosion, and 2015 land cover map to delineate human influence on erosive processes. Results indicate that Tietê River water supply systems, namely Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiaí (PCJ) and Itupararanga systems, can be considered the most fragile water supply systems in the study area. The environmental fragility map was used to derive the environmental zoning map, including conservation and priority areas, suitable regions for agriculture expansion, and areas with high needs for restoration efforts. In addition, environmental fragility framework herein can be viewed as a model with high replication potential for regional planning and management in that land cover can be manipulated to minimize environment natural vulnerability, guiding territorial occupation toward a more sustainable landscape design, which subsidizes water resources multiple uses.     

Development of medium- and low-rise reinforced concrete building fragility curves based on Chi-Chi Earthquake data

In this paper, a grid-based cluster division procedure, in combination with a novel maximum likelihood estimate based on multinomial distribution, is proposed to derive fragility curves for medium- and low-rise reinforced concrete (RC) buildings in Taiwan. This new grid-based method generates higher-quality vulnerability data for reducing the dispersion of datasets than does the district-based method. The medium- and low-rise RC buildings are classified into six typologies according to both the number of floors and the design code, based on the complete building damage records collected after the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake in Taiwan. The results of the grid-based method show that the fragility curves are more stable and convergent than those from the district-based method. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed method can reasonably be implemented for fragility analysis and can be used for assessing seismic risk in the future.     

强震作用下土石坝易损性快速精准分析的CIHA方法

强震作用下土石坝极易出现失稳破坏,从而造成人员伤亡和较大的社会经济损失.由于地震的不确定性,强震作用下土石坝失稳分析通常采用失稳概率表示,目前常用方法是地震易损性分析方法,主要有云图法和增量动力分析（incremental dynamic analysis,IDA）两种方法.IDA方法计算结果准确,但计算效率低,云图法计算效率虽高,但计算精度无法得到有效保证.基于上述问题,提出了一种基于云图法和IDA方法的地震易损性快速精准分析方法（CIHA,cloud-IDA hybrid approach）.CIHA方法可兼顾计算效率和计算精度,该方法基于云图法的对数线性回归假设,通过非线性时程分析,并对地震波进行一次放缩来计算相应损伤指标下的地震动强度值,利用地震动强度值得到的均值和方差生成土石坝在各个损伤等级下的易损性曲线.通过对Lower San Fernando土石坝的地震易损性分析,将所提CIHA方法与IDA方法的计算结果进行了对比.结果表明,在计算精度方面,CIHA方法可以获得与IDA方法相近的结果,在计算效率方面,CIHA方法相比IDA方法计算效率有显著提高.      

The tourism disaster vulnerability framework: an application to tourism in small island destinations

Islands are known to be vulnerable to natural hazards, resulting in substantial risks for their tourism industries. To facilitate the systematic analysis of the underlying vulnerability drivers, a tourism disaster vulnerability framework was developed. The conceptual model then guided qualitative empirical research in three regions: the Caribbean, the South Pacific, and the Indian Ocean. The results from 73 interviews highlight common, as well as idiosyncratic, factors that shape the islands’ hazardscapes and vulnerabilities. Key vulnerabilities included social, economic, political, and environmental dimensions. Probably, the most critical vulnerability driver is the lack of private sector investment in disaster risk reduction. This is interrelated with deficient planning processes, on-going demand for coastal products, lack of political will, and poor environmental conditions. Notwithstanding many barriers, some businesses and organisations engage proactively in addressing disaster risk. The paper’s empirical evidence supports the validity of the framework, and suggestions for further research are made.     

Extracting building stock information from optical satellite imagery for mapping earthquake exposure and its vulnerability

The paper focuses on automatic extraction of building stock information for quantifying physical exposure and its vulnerability from High and Very High Resolution (VHR) optical satellite imagery. We use two case studies. In Sana’a (Yemen), we use automatic techniques to extract the building stock as well as building height that is used to characterize its vulnerability. In Port-au-Prince (Haiti)—the area affected by the 2010 earthquake—we map the building stock based on a pre-disaster imagery, and we show the added value of area-based information when added to point-based damage assessment from visual change interpretation of post-disaster aerial images. This paper shows that VHR imagery can be used to locate and quantify the building stock and its height. This paper also shows that damages measured from changes detected from pre- and post-disaster imagery can in principle map and provide vulnerability information related to the structural fragility of the building stock.     

Toward a disaster risk assessment and mapping in the virtual geographic environment of Armenia

This paper presents the results of a research aiming natural and technological hazard, and risk assessment and mapping in Web-based holistic geographic environment, and the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 in Armenia. A common spatial multi-criteria evaluation method was used for natural and technological hazard, risk and population vulnerability assessments. The virtual geographic environment developed by the authors during the previous period of investigations was upgraded and used for the implementation of this research. It involves the following components: 1. geodatabase, 2. modeling and simulation, 3. interface for digital mapping, 4. metadata, 5. Web–based network service for collaboration. Moreover, the country specific natural and technological hazard, risk and population vulnerability assessment methods were developed, implemented, and appropriate digital maps were created.     

Quantification of geodiversity and its loss

Geodiversity, i.e., a diversity of geological heritage sites, can be quantified with an account of geosite types, type counterparts, and their ranks. Higher numbers of geosite types represented within a given territory and their higher ranks indicate a higher geodiversity. Two additional characteristics, namely geoabundance and georichness, allow measure of the quantity of geosites and the diversity-quantity relationship respectively. Geodiversity loss can be evaluated with an accounting of decreases in geosite type ranks linked to the damage of geosites. A calculation of relative and multi-dimensional geodiversity helps in quantitative assessment of the regional geological heritage.     

Capturing the multifaceted phenomena of socioeconomic vulnerability

Vulnerability and disaster risk assessment has been evaluated from different perspectives with focus on global or national scale. There is a lack of methodologies on city scale, which are able to capture inner-city disparities with regard to socioeconomic aspects. Therefore, the main objective was to develop a transparent and comprehensive indicator-based approach which is flexible in terms of data availability and is not tied to a specific case study side. This research proposes two flexible methodological approaches on how to perform socioeconomic vulnerability assessment. Susceptibility, Coping and Adaptation are the main elements of a modular hierarchical structure to capture the societal sphere of vulnerability. The first method is completely based on official census data at block scale. The second method is an expansion and includes data derived from a field survey to add components of risk perception. The proposed methodologies were developed and applied in the city of Genoa (Italy). The results are displayed spatially explicit on maps. Furthermore statistical analysis, to reveal the driving forces which influence vulnerability, was performed. The census-based approach revealed that vulnerability is forced along the river by the inherent susceptibility, as well as the lack of adaptation. The two approaches can be used effectively in gaining different insights. The flexibility of the framework proved to be suitable to the objective of the research. However, the values computed in this research do not claim completeness, and the aim was to provide useful information for stakeholders in decision making process to reduce vulnerability and risk.     

Ugandan geosites

Geosites are important and/or unique geological or geographical features of significance. Typically they comprise geological, palaeontological, as well as archaeological sites. Geosites should be regarded as deserving to be preserved and protected, either from the elements or from destructive human activities, both for the community and future generations. A good knowledge of geological heritage, and a healthy respect for it, is an important factor in the holistic approach for sustainable development. Very often, these sites bear a multi‐faceted ‘story’, which may date back from very recent times to billions of years ago. As such, geosites are of great educational and scientific value. In Africa, such sites have not been receiving the attention they deserve. Only a few countries on the continent acknowledge their importance. Within the framework of a Sustainable Management of Mineral Resources Project (SMMRP), geological mapping, geochemical surveys and mineral resources assessment in selected areas of Uganda have been completed under the umbrella of the Geological Survey of Finland (GTK), and the Department of Geological Survey and Mines (DGSM, Uganda). Apart from recording ‘hard‐tough’ geology, 62 geosites were documented in 2010 and 2011. For the first time, such sites have been incorporated in the new geological maps of the country (at a scale of 1: 250 000). It is possible that this is the first time that such places have been shown on geological maps of Africa. Currently, the extreme north‐east of the country is being geologically mapped by DGSM, with the eventuality of more possible geosites being discovered.     

Social vulnerability assessment to seismic risk using multicriteria analysis: the case study of Vila Franca do Campo (S?o Miguel Island, Azores, Portugal)

The increase in the frequency and magnitude of disasters triggered by earthquakes in different regions of the Earth is a major challenge to contemporary societies. The awareness that disasters and risk are processes structured on spatial?Ctemporal interactions maintained at the social-ecological system between the natural hazards and the vulnerabilities of socioeconomic, political and physical nature becomes utterly important in the increase of social systems?? resilience. Thus, the assessment of social vulnerability plays a decisive role in understanding the factors that distinguishes individuals, households and communities, in terms of their ability to anticipate, cope with, resist to and recover from the impact of disasters triggered by natural hazards. This article presents a geographic information system (GIS)-based approach model to assess the social vulnerability to seismic risk using multicriteria analysis (MCA) techniques, in a group decision-making process. The methodology applied to the municipality of Vila Franca do Campo (S?o Miguel Island, Azores, Portugal) identified moderate social vulnerability values at the neighbourhood level and higher social vulnerability values for the built environment and demographic characteristics of the social groups. The social vulnerability patterns make a clear distinction between the older/historical urban cores and the new urban areas. In the first case, the presence of ancient buildings constructed with materials of low resistance to earthquakes coupled with a higher population density and the traits of demographic and socioeconomic frailties of the social groups, results in higher vulnerability values. This pattern is common in the historic centre of S. Miguel district, Ribeira das Taínhas, northern areas of água de Alto and western and eastern neighbourhoods of Ponta Gar?a. The new urban areas, mainly found in S. Pedro, central areas of água de Alto, S. Miguel and Ponta Gar?a districts, have lower values of social vulnerability due to changes in the built, demographic and socioeconomic environments. Results recommend the integration of social vulnerability indexes into seismic risk mitigation policies and emergency management planning.     

自然灾害脆弱性曲线研究进展

在全球变化与全球化背景下自然灾害风险逐年增大,灾害评估就成为风险防范的重要基础。灾害评估包括灾情估算与风险评估2个方面,而脆弱性分析是把灾害与风险研究紧密联系起来的重要桥梁。脆弱性曲线作为定量精确评估承灾体脆弱性的方法,近年来在多领域被广泛运用,成为灾情估算、风险定量分析以及风险地图编制的关键环节。从致灾因子角度综述脆弱性曲线的研究进展,重点阐述基于灾情数据、已有曲线、调查和模型的脆弱性曲线构建。研究表明脆弱性曲线构建由单曲线向多曲线库、单一参数向综合参数、单一方法向多领域综合应用发展,具有综合化和精细化的趋势。进一步开展多领域、多方法综合脆弱性曲线研究,对灾损快速评估及风险评价,防灾减灾具有重要意义。