AE指数非线性预报的探讨

本文运用径向基函数法和邻点加权拟合法构造预测模型，利用ＡＢ指数对地磁活动的非线性预测的可能性进行了探讨。     

1998年8月6日亚暴期间极光电集流指数AE的特征分析

极光电集流指数(AE)被广泛用来定量描述由电离层电流引起的极光带地磁活动.AE指数也是宏观描述亚暴事件强度和发展过程的一个主要指标,它的优点在于简单直观和快速.本文对1998年8月6日系列亚暴事件的极光活动、电流体系和AE指数的形态特征进行了分析.结果表明,伪亚暴期间虽然AE指数大于500 nT 且有快速增长和缓慢恢复的形态,但是极光没有明显的极向或者赤道向的扩展,极区电流体系主要呈现对流特征;伪亚暴和亚暴期间AE指数的形态变化没有本质区别,但电集流中心的位置有很大差异.我们进一步分析了台站分布对AE指数计算的影响,探讨了伪亚暴和亚暴期间磁场扰动最大值所处的磁地方时的差异.     

寒区浅水湖冰生消特征及其影响因素

基于2019-2020期间在盘锦市含章湖利用浮式观测平台开展湖冰原型观测试验,分析不同因素对湖冰变化造成的影响.结果 表明:99 d冰期内湖冰的生消过程可概述为:湖泊封冻(3 a)-稳定生长(62 d)-冰厚稳定(7 d)-加速消融(24 d)—破碎分解(3 d).生长期冰厚的平均增长速率为0.4 cm/d,最大冰厚为...     

ANN forecast of hourly averaged AE index based on L1 IMF and plasma measurements

The AE index has two components: one driven by the solar wind and one related to the magnetotail unloading process. We recall some past findings on this issue and present a new ANN algorithm for the AE forecasting at 5 and 60 min time scales, built by adding to a previous algorithm a further layer with a hyperbolic tangent transfer function and two more inputs, the output at time t and the difference between the input at time t and the output at time t - 1. We show that, at the 60 min time scale and for AE > 400 nT, the new algorithm performs better than the former one, while no improvement is obtained at the 5 min time scale. This result confirms that the AE component driven by the solar wind can be forecast, at least partially, while the unloading component may not be reproduced from solar wind inputs.     

Factors influencing the growth of miniature ice lenses

Experiments involving six soil types indicated that the production of miniature ice lenses is dependent on soil moisture content and grain size with lenses being produced in finer-grained soils at lower moisture contents than is possible in coarser soils. Explanation of the results involves consideration of the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity of the unfrozen soil through which water migrated to the freezing plane to allow ice lens growth.     

Inversion of potential field data using the structural index as weighting function rate decay

Nonparametric inverse methods provide a general framework for solving potential‐field problems. The use of weighted norms leads to a general regularization problem of Tikhonov form. We present an alternative procedure to estimate the source susceptibility distribution from potential field measurements exploiting inversion methods by means of a flexible depth‐weighting function in the Tikhonov formulation. Our approach improves the formulation proposed by Li and Oldenburg (1996, 1998) , differing significantly in the definition of the depth‐weighting function. In our formalism the depth weighting function is associated not to the field decay of a single block (which can be representative of just a part of the source) but to the field decay of the whole source, thus implying that the data inversion is independent on the cell shape. So, in our procedure, the depth‐weighting function is not given with a fixed exponent but with the structural index N of the source as the exponent. Differently than previous methods, our choice gives a substantial objectivity to the form of the depth‐weighting function and to the consequent solutions. The allowed values for the exponent of the depth‐weighting function depend on the range of N for sources: 0 ≤N≤ 3 (magnetic case). The analysis regarding the cases of simple sources such as dipoles, dipole lines, dykes or contacts, validate our hypothesis. The study of a complex synthetic case also proves that the depth‐weighting decay cannot be necessarily assumed as equal to 3. Moreover it should not be kept constant for multi‐source models but should instead depend on the structural indices of the different sources. In this way we are able to successfully invert the magnetic data of the Vulture area, Southern Italy. An original aspect of the proposed inversion scheme is that it brings an explicit link between two widely used types of interpretation methods, namely those assuming homogeneous fields, such as Euler deconvolution or depth from extreme points transformation and the inversion under the Tikhonov‐form including a depth‐weighting function. The availability of further constraints, from drillings or known geology, will definitely improve the quality of the solution.     

A new magnetic index based on the external part of vertical geomagnetic variations

Variations of geomagnetic components X, Y, and Z recorded in 19 Intermagnet European observatories in 2004 were analysed. The original data from all observatories were preliminarily processed. In the first step, periods longer than three hours were filtered out. In the second step, variations of vertical geomagnetic component Z were separated into external and internal parts. We introduced a non-dimensional index η defined as the square root of a ratio of the energy of the external part of the vertical component to that of the horizontal components. Maps of the surface distribution of a new magnetic index η for the area of Europe at selected time periods were created, and their time changes are presented. The time changes of η for selected observatories are also shown. Moreover, we discuss a very interesting phenomenon we discovered, that has never been described in geophysical literature. Namely, in the recordings of all the observatories we noticed the presence of very regular variations, observed almost exclusively in the vertical component Z, which is quite unusual. These regular variations occur in the form of sinusoidal “wave packets”. The amplitudes of these variations do not depend on the geomagnetic latitude and appear in the records of all the observatories we analyzed. They occur in quiet days, which suggests that their source is in the ionosphere.     

中国大陆及大华北、云南的地震平静指标——不同层次地震平静异常预测效能研究之二

本文针对中国大陆、大华北和云南,利用过去积累的30多年地震资料,经过多种方案试算、评分检验,明确了平静指标和预测规则,找到了合适的研究平静预测的震级下限M0、预测震级M1、平静异常时间T1与预测时间T2等最佳参数组合,可以取得高于置信水平为97.5%的区别随机瞎报的阈值R0的R评分值。     

极光沉降粒子能量与AE、Dst指数的相关分析

对NOAA的POES系列极轨卫星观测得到的1978年以来近30年的极光沉降粒子半球能量的估算值EPI(Estimated Power Input)数据进行了分析,结果表明,极光沉降粒子有显著的春秋分峰值的年变化特征,并且有冬季半球沉降能量较大的南北半球不对称性.对EPI的时均值Pa与地磁指数AE、Dst的相关分析得到,Pa与AE的相关系数为0.76,Pa与Dst的相关系数为-0.55.把南北半球的时均值SPa,NPa数据分别与AE,Dst指数做相关,发现SPa与AE的相关性稍高于NPa的,SPa和NPa与Dst的相关性近似.当时延τ=0时,AE与Pa的相关最好,表明全球极光沉降粒子和极光电集流的变化同步;当Dst滞后于Pa,时延τ=1~2 h,Pa与Dst的相关最好,并且时延τ为6～8 h,Pa与Dst的相关都好于无时延的水平.     

极光沉降粒子能量与AE、Dst指数的相关分析

对NOAA的POES系列极轨卫星观测得到的1978年以来近30年的极光沉降粒子半球能量的估算值EPI(Estimated Power Input)数据进行了分析,结果表明,极光沉降粒子有显著的春秋分峰值的年变化特征,并且有冬季半球沉降能量较大的南北半球不对称性.对EPI的时均值Pa与地磁指数AE、D_st的相关分析得到,Pa与AE的相关系数为0.76,Pa与D_st的相关系数为-0.55.把南北半球的时均值SPa,NPa数据分别与AE,D_st指数做相关,发现SPa与AE的相关性稍高于NPa的,SPa和NPa与D_st的相关性近似.当时延τ=0时,AE与Pa的相关最好,表明全球极光沉降粒子和极光电集流的变化同步;当D_st滞后于Pa,时延τ=1~2 h,Pa与D_st的相关最好,并且时延τ为6～8 h,Pa与D_st的相关都好于无时延的水平.     

Evaluation of groundwater quality using pollution index of groundwater(PIG) and non-carcinogenic health risk assessment in part of the Gangetic Basin

The aim of this study was to evaluate groundwater fitness for domestic and irrigational use in Unnao district of Uttar Pradesh,India.For this study,block wise(n=16) groundwater samples were collected,and measured parameters were analyzed using the pollution index of groundwater(PIG),various irrigational indices,and graphical techniques.The results of this study suggested that most of the parameters were within the prescribed limits of WHO and BIS,excluding F~-(0.4 to 2.6 mg L~(-1))and Fe~(2+)(0.1 to 1.7 mg L~(-1)).Concentrations of total dissolved solids(TDS) were exceeded the desirable limit( 500 mg L~(-1)) in 43.75% of samples at some sites.The Gibbs plot revealed that groundwater chemistry was governed by rock-water interaction in the region,especially silicate weathering.The Piper plot suggested that Ca~(2+)-HCO_3~-is dominant hydrochemical facies in the area followed by mixed Ca~(2+)-Na~+-HCO_3~-type,Na~+-Cl~-type,and Na~+-HCO_3~-type.PIG evaluation revealed that the contribution of F~-and Fe~(2+) in groundwater degradation is high in comparison to other elements in the region,about 18.75% samples showed low pollution,while about 6.25% samples shows moderate pollution,and 6.25%samples reflected high pollution.The human health risk(HHR) assessment finding suggested that children(mean:1.36) are more vulnerable than adults(mean:1.01).Sodium absorption ration(SAR),Residual sodium carbonate(RSC),and Permeability index(PI) indicated that most of the groundwater was suitable for irrigation,whereas,Magnesium hazard ration(MHR) and Potential salinity(PS) indices suggested that only 37.5% and 56.25%of the samples were suitable for irrigational use,respectively.This regional study would help in decision making for stakeholders and relevant authorities in the execution of groundwater management and remediation plans in the area.     

The generation and decay of vorticity

Abstract

Vorticity, although not the primary variable of fluid dynamics, is an important derived variable playing both mathematical and physical roles in the solution and understanding of problems. The following treatment discusses the generation of vorticity at rigid boundaries and its subsequent decay. It is intended to provide a consistent and very broadly applicable framework within which a wide range of questions can be answered explicitly. The rate of generation of vorticity is shown to be the relative tangential acceleration of fluid and boundary without taking viscosity into account and the generating mechanism therefore involves the tangential pressure gradient within the fluid and the external acceleration of the boundary only. The mechanism is inviscid in nature and independent of the no-slip condition at the boundary, although viscous diffusion acts immediately after generation to spread vorticity outward from boundaries. Vorticity diffuses neither out of boundaries nor into them, and the only means of decay is by cross-diffusive annihilation within the fluid.     

波阻抗反演正则参数估计

为了解决用正则化方法能够将波阻抗反演的病态问题转为良态问题,通过统计方法合理地选择正则参数的初值,在反演过程中用极大似然（ML）方法实时进行正则参数值估计,提高反演收敛速度,改善反演结果。同时,在具体反演中将正则化方法与快速模拟退火算法相结合,充分发挥正则参数作用,可以获得全局最优解,取得了好的实际应用效果。     

Characteristics of the AE Distribution and Triggering Mechanism of a Simulated Meter-Scale Fault after Stick-Slip Events

With the more complete acoustic emission (AE) catalog improved by the multi-channel AE matched-filter technique (MFT), we study the spatiotemporal evolution of the AE activities after laboratory stick-slip events incorporate with the slip data recorded by displacement transducers on an ~1.5 m granite fault. The results show that the number of the AE events identified by MFT is about 9 times larger than that of the traditional method. A logarithmic expansion of early AE events along the fault strike is observed as a function of time, whereas the fault does not slip in the same manner. Thus, we related the expansion of the early AE events along the fault to the stress transfer caused by the adjacent AE events. Moreover, there is a good correlation between the cumulative number of the later AE events and the amount of fault slip. It suggests that the stress change caused by the continuous slip of the simulated fault after the stick-slip events response for the later AE events near or on the simulated fault.     

Relationship between coral growth rate and sea surface temperature in the northern part of South China Sea during the past 100 a

To research the relationship between coral growth rate and sea surface temperatnre (T_ss), 5 cores of livingPorites lutea were collected from the Xisha Islands and the southern Hainan Island waters and measured. The results of the study show that there is an obviously positive correlation between the coral growth rates and theTss records from the northern part of South China Sea. The annual growth rates of the five samples ofPorites lutea during the past 100 a are in the range of 7—15 mm/a, and their mean value is 11 mm/a. The correlation coefficients between the coral growth rates and the T_ss records from the waters during 1961—1993 are in the range of 0.77—0.89. As a result, a thermometer of the coral growth rate is established. A hindcasting T_ss, in the waters from 1993 to 1961 has been obtained with an error of about 0.12—0.17°C. Based upon the calculated result, the rising rate of T_ss in the northern part of South China Sea during the past 100 a is 0.20°C. which is higher than that of the air temperature in China (0.09°C/100 a), but lower than that of the global temperature and that of T_ss in the tropical western Pacific Ocean. Project supported by the National Nutural Science Foundation of China and the Multidesciplinary Oceanographic Expedition Team of Chinese Academy of Sciences to the Nansha Islands.     

长岛震群震源谱参数反演和震源参数特征

采用高频截止(High-Cut)震源模型,以均方根误差最小原则稳健地求解震源谱参数,并由此推算震源尺度和静态应力降。实际应用显示,该模型的理论谱对观测谱有很好的拟合,可明显改善拐角频率识别准确度。计算了长岛震群内71次M_L≥2.5地震事件的震源参数,结果表明：(1)拐角频率处于2～10 Hz范围,与震级大小存在一定的相关性,截止频率范围处于10～30 Hz之间,与地震大小的相关性不明显;(2)地震矩M₀分布在10¹²～10¹⁴ N·m,与震级M_L存在正相关关系：logM₀=0.977M_L+10.186;M_L与矩震级M_W之间的关系为：M_W=0.651M_L+0.766;(3)根据相对应力降时域演化发现,自2017年3月3日M_L4.5地震之后应力快速释放,应力降水平在均值附近波动,而且多数M_L≥3.5地震发生于...     

On the dynamic response of regular structures exhibiting tilt

The mechanical characteristics of earthquake‐resistant structures and the ground motion properties that have an important influence on the seismic performance of structures with asymmetric load–deformation behaviour, are identified from the results obtained from a parametric study of the dynamic response of single‐degree‐of‐freedom systems. The dynamic response of tilted single and multi‐degree‐of‐freedom systems, designed according to Mexican requirements for the design of asymmetric structures is studied. After a general understanding of this phenomenon is offered, shortcomings in current design requirements for tilted structures are discussed. Research needs to establish a rational design approach of this type of structures are identified. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the generation and decay of the long-period coda energy of large earthquakes

Seismic coda wave is the tail portion of the earthquake record after main arrivals. Studies on the coda usually focus on high-frequency data within several hours after regional events and attribute them to the scattering effect of the heterogeneities inside the earth. Here, we use records of seven large earthquakes at globally distributed seismic stations to examine the decay of long-period (100 s to 300 s) coda in the time window of 10,000 s to 140,000 s after the origin time and fit it with a statistical model. The geometric spreading effect in the estimated initial energy and a location-independent equivalent attenuation coefficient indicate that the long-period coda energy is less affected by the heterogeneity-induced scattering effect than that of shorter-period coda. The coda energy can reach the earth's inner core and can be explained by a 1D earth model, making it more effective for constraining the global attenuation model. It also has the potential to determine the magnitudes of large earthquakes and to explore the interior of planetary bodies.     

网式大地电磁阻抗张量及其影响因素分析

网式大地电磁（Network-MT,N-MT）法采用长数公里至数十公里的电话线为电极线测量电场,很难形成两条笔直且相互垂直的电极线,因此阻抗张量的计算不如大地电磁法中直接.本文依据阻抗张量的旋转规则提出了一种计算N-MT阻抗张量的简便算法.依据该算法计算了中国东北地区5个N-MT测站的阻抗张量,获得了基于阻抗张量的视电阻率、相位曲线和最佳主轴方位角分布图像,为我国东北N-MT资料的进一步处理和解释提供了基础性数据.此外,本文对比分析了朝阳测站中6条N-MT观测电极线上阻抗张量旋转值与观测值之间的差异,重点讨论了产生这种系统性偏差的各种因素,提出其主要因素可能来自“电场等效各向异性”效应,即测站附近的地壳内部存在与观测电极线尺度相比拟的横向非均匀构造,而测站各电极线沿不同方向跨越不均匀构造,此时各电极线上的电场分量不遵循同一电场矢量的分解准则,导致地表观测三角形内阻抗分量不满足统一的阻抗张量旋转规则.