Isotopes and sustainability of ground water resources, North China Plain

Ground water in deep confined aquifers is one of the major water resources for agricultural, industrial, and domestic uses in the North China Plain. Detailed information on ground water age and recharge is vital for the proper management of these water resources, and to this end, we used carbon 14 of dissolved inorganic carbon and tritium in water to measure the age and determine the recharge areas of ground water in the North China Plain. These isotopic data suggest that most ground water in the piedmont part of the North China Plain is <40 years old and is recharged locally. In contrast, ground water in the central and littoral portions of the North China Plain is 10,000 to 25,000 years old. The delta18O (deltaD) values of this ground water are 1.7 per thousand (11 per thousand) less than that in the piedmont plain ground water and possibly reflect water recharged during a cooler climate during the last glaciation. The temperature of this recharge, based on delta18O values, ranges from 3.7 degrees C to 8.4 degrees C, compared to 12 degrees C to 13 degrees C of modern recharge water. The isotopic data set combined indicates that ground water in the central and littoral part of the North China Plain is being mined under non-steady state conditions.     

Global climate change and its impacts on water resources planning and management: assessment and challenges

Population explosion and its many associated effects (e.g. urbanization, water pollution, deforestation) have already caused enormous stress on the world’s fresh water resources and, in turn, environment, health, and economy. According to latest World Health Organization estimates, about 900 million people still lack access to safe drinking water, about 2.5 billion people lack access to proper sanitation, millions of people die every year from water-related disasters and diseases, and economic losses in the order of billions of dollars occur due to water-related disasters. With the global climate change anticipated to have threatening consequences on our water resources and environment both at the global level and at local/regional levels (e.g. increases in the number and magnitude of floods and droughts, increases in sea levels), a general assessment is that the future state of our water resources will be a lot worse than it is now. The facts that over 300 rivers around the world are being shared by two or more nation states and that there are already numerous conflicts in the planning, development, and management of water resources in these basins further complicate matters for future water resources planning. In view of these, any sincere effort towards proper management of our future water resources and resolving potential future water-related conflicts will need to overcome many challenges. These challenges are both biophysical science-related and human science-related. The biophysical science challenges include: identification of the actual causes of climate change, development of global climate models (GCMs) that can adequately incorporate these causes to generate dependable future climate projections at larger scales, formulation of appropriate techniques to downscale the GCM outputs to local conditions for hydrologic predictions, and reliable estimation of the associated uncertainties in all these. The human science challenges have social, political, economic, and environmental facets that often act in an interconnected manner; proper ‘communication’ of (or lack thereof) our climate-water ‘scientific’ research activities to fellow scientists and engineers, policy makers, economists, industrialists, farmers, and the public at large crucially contributes to these challenges. The present study is intended to review the current state of our water resources and the climate change problem and to detail the challenges in dealing with the potential impacts of climate change on our water resources.     

Securing the future of ground water resources in the Great Lakes basin

Ground water is a vital, but underappreciated, natural resource in the Great Lakes basin. It meets many human needs and contributes significantly to the hydrology of the Great Lakes and the health of ecosystems. This paper provides an overview of ground water in the Great Lakes and the institutional and legal setting that governs the use, protection, diversion, and removal of water from the basin and proposes a citizen-centered vision for management of ground water in the 21st century.     

A seismological overview of long-period ground motion

Long-period ground motion has become an increasingly important consideration because of the recent rapid increase in the number of large-scale structures, such as high-rise buildings and oil storage tanks. Large subduction-zone earthquakes and moderate to large crustal earthquakes can generate far-source long-period ground motions in distant sedimentary basins with the help of path effects. Near-fault long-period ground motions are generated, for the most part, by the source effects of forward rupture directivity. Far-source long-period ground motions consist primarily of surface waves with longer durations than near-fault long-period ground motions. They were first recognized in the seismograms of the 1968 Tokachi-oki and 1966 Parkfield earthquakes, and their identification has been applied to the 1964 Niigata earthquake and earlier earthquakes. Even if there is no seismogram, we can identify far-source long-period ground motions through the investigation of tank damage by liquid sloshing.     

Multivariate analyses of water chemistry: surface and ground water interactions

Multivariate statistical methods (MSMs) applied to ground water chemistry provide valuable insight into the main hydrochemical species, hydrochemical processes, and water flowpaths important to ground water evolution. The MSMs of principal component factor analysis (FA) and k-means cluster analysis (CA) were sequentially applied to major ion chemistry from 211 different ground water-sampling locations in the Amargosa Desert. The FA reduces the number of variables describing the system and finds relationships between major ions. The CA of the reduced system produced objective hydrochemical facies, which are independent of, but in good agreement with, lithological data. The derived factors and hydrochemical facies are innovatively presented on biplots, revealing composition of hydrochemical processes and facies, and overlaid on a digital elevation model, displaying flowpaths and interactions with geologic and topographic features in the region. In particular, a distinct ground water chemical signature is observed beneath and surrounding the extended flowpath of Fortymile Wash, presenting some contradiction to contemporary water levels along with potential interaction with a fault line. The signature surrounding the ephemeral Fortymile Wash is believed to represent the relic of water that infiltrated during past pluvial periods when the amount of runoff in the wash was significantly larger than during the current drier period. This hypothesis and aforementioned analyses are supported by the examination of available chloride, oxygen-18, hydrogen-2, and carbon-14 data from the region.     

Projection of future world water resources under SRES scenarios: an integrated assessment

Abstract

Changes in water resources availability, as affected by global climate warming, together with changes in water withdrawal, could influence the world water resources stress situation. In this study, we investigate how the world water resources situation will likely change under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by integrating water withdrawal projections. First, the potential changes in water resources availability are investigated by a multi-model analysis of the ensemble outputs of six general circulation models (GCMs) from organizations worldwide. The analysis suggests that, while climate warming might increase water resources availability to human society, there is a large discrepancy in the size of the water resource depending on the GCM used. Secondly, the changes in water-stressed basins and the number of people living in them are evaluated by two indices at the basin scale. The numbers were projected to increase in the future and possibly to be doubled in the 2050s for the three SRES scenarios A1b, A2 and B1. Finally, the relative impacts of population growth, water use change and climate warming on world water resources are investigated using the global highly water-stressed population as an overall indicator. The results suggest that population and socio-economic development are the major drivers of growing world water resources stress. Even though water availability was projected to increase under different warming scenarios, the reduction of world water stress is very limited. The principal alternative to sustainable governance of world water resources is to improve water-use efficiency globally by effectively reducing net water withdrawal.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Gerten     

Climate and water resources

Abstract

River runoff and the resulting water resources which provide the needs of mankind for fresh water are subject to variations in space and time mainly depending on the space and time variability of climate characteristics. Thus there are close interrelations between the problems of the provision of fresh water and the problems of both natural and anthropogenic changes in climate. Moreover, these interrelations are characterized by specific features both under natural conditions and during a period of man's intensive impact on water resources. The problem of these interrelations has acquired a particular scientific and practical importance during recent years in which climatologists have attempted to predict global anthropogenic changes in climate for the near future, changes unknown on our plant for millennia. The present paper has been prepared mainly on the basis of research results obtained at the State Hydrological Institute in Leningrad. It describes the global interrelations between climatic characteristics and water resources under natural conditions and in the case of intensive water resources development; up-to-date ideas on the anthropogenic changes of the global climate are given; the possible consequent effects on future water resources are analysed.     

Integrated water resources management: Concepts and issues

After the describing the historical developments that led the development of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM), the paper defines this important concept. It subsequently deals with the thorny issue of water security as well as water conflict, after which the major issues over which thus far no consensus has been achieved are briefly reviewed. The paper concludes with an analysis of the role of the IAHS International Commission on Water Resources Systems (ICWRS) in promoting IWRM.     

ITOM: an interval-parameter two-stage optimization model for stochastic planning of water resources systems

Planning of water resources systems is often associated with many uncertain parameters and their interrelationships are complicated. Stochastic planning of water resources systems is vital under changing climate and increasing water scarcity. This study proposes an interval-parameter two-stage optimization model (ITOM) for water resources planning in an agricultural system under uncertainty. Compared with other optimization techniques, the proposed modeling approach offers two advantages: first, it provides a linkage to pre-defined water policies, and; second, it reflects uncertainties expressed as probability distributions and discrete intervals. The ITOM is applied to a case study of irrigation planning. Reasonable solutions are obtained, and a variety of decision alternatives are generated under different combinations of water shortages. It provides desired water-allocation patterns with respect to maximum system benefits and highest feasibility. Moreover, the modeling results indicate that an optimistic water policy corresponding to higher agricultural income may be subject to a higher risk of system-failure penalties; while, a too conservative policy may lead to wastage of irrigation supplies.