Turning conflicts into cooperation? The role of adaptive learning and deliberation in managing natural resources conflicts in Nepal

ABSTRACT

Conflicts over natural resources are likely to escalate under changing socio-economic contexts and climate change. This paper tests the effectiveness of what we term Adaptive Learning and Deliberation (ALD) in understanding and addressing conflicts over the local management of forests and water, drawing on experimental work in Nepal. Based on a three-year action research project, the paper offers policy and practical insights on how complex and protracted conflicts can be addressed through the researcher-facilitated enquiry and deliberative processes that form the core of the ALD approach. The conflicts included in the study are a result of diverse environmental, political and economic factors. We analyze experimental practices in two sites, where our research team facilitated the ALD process, gathering evidence in relation to conflicting institutional issues, all of which was then fed into researcher-mediated and evidence-informed deliberations on conflict management. The analysis shows that the ALD process was helpful in rearranging local institutions to accommodate the interests of the conflicting groups and, to some extent, to challenge some of the underlying exclusionary provisions of forest and water institutions in Nepalese society. We also identify three key limitations of this approach – transaction costs, the need for strong research and facilitative capacity within the research team, and researchers’ engagement with the conflicting stakeholders.

Key policy insights

• Natural resource-based conflicts are intensifying in Nepal in recent years, due to heavy reliance of people on these resources for livelihoods, poor governance, and protection-oriented policies.

• Improved ways to facilitate cooperation among conflicting stakeholders are needed, as standard methods have often failed to address socio-environmental drivers of conflicts.

• The ALD approach can potentially help mitigate conflict and foster cooperation in natural resource management.

     

黑龙江省季节冻土形成发育规律及特征

在黑龙江省均有季节冻结和季节融化现象发生，多年冻土区有季节融化层，季节冻结层主要分布在多年冻土区以外的地区。按季节冻结类型可把黑龙江省季节冻土分为过渡型、半过渡型、长期稳定型和稳定型等类型。季节冻结和融化深度在年际间有很大的差异，在多年冻土区南界附近，季节冻深年际间变化最大。土季节冻结和融化的影响因素主要有雪盖、植被、土壤成分及含水量、地表状况和地形等。     

青藏高原多雪年与少雪年土壤水热特征模拟分析

利用耦合了陆面过程模式(CLM4.5)的区域气候模式(RegCM4)分别对青藏高原的一个多雪年和少雪年进行了数值模拟.通过对比模拟雪深与遥感雪深、土壤温湿度的模拟值与观测值、多雪年与少雪年的土壤温湿度模拟值,结果表明,RegCM4-CLM4.5可以有效模拟出高原的多雪年与少雪年特征,模拟雪深大值中心比遥感雪深高10～2...     

Measurement of soil water contents and frozen soil depth during a thaw using time‐domain reflectometry

Abstract

The results of a field test of time‐domain reflectometry (TDR) to measure apparent liquid soil water contents and to locate the unfrozen‐frozen interface during thawing conditions is presented. The apparent liquid water content was observed in the fall and through a late winter thaw on two sand sites, one with a natural snow cover and the other with snow removed throughout the winter. Temperatures were monitored at intervals throughout the profile. The results indicate that TDR provides a method for monitoring apparent liquid water content andfreeze‐thaw processes.     

From Pioneers to Practitioners: A Short History of Severe Thunderstorm Research and Forecasting in Canada†

ABSTRACT

The science of understanding severe thunderstorms and developing techniques for their prediction is relatively young, with most fundamental research having been carried out only during the last 75 years. Though it is not widely known, Canada has played an important role in such research and development, and some of Canada’s atmospheric scientists have been pioneers globally in a number of areas. This brief review attempts to describe the full breadth of the Canadian contribution, with sections dedicated to radar meteorology, field studies, laboratory work, and forecasting. Key areas requiring further investment in order to improve our understanding and predictive skill are also identified.     

Impacts of crop residue at the earth-atmosphere interface: Introduction

Summary Crop residues have been an under-valued resource in many agricultural systems. This collection of papers presents a sampling of new research and applications of new knowledge to improve our understanding of crop residue properties and impacts. Development and implementation of improved crop residue management offers opportunities to manipulate hydrologic, radiative, and energy balance processes. I hope the readers of Theoretical and Applied Climatology will be stimulated with new ideas. Collectively our new ideas can advance understanding of crop residue management and help us achieve sustainability in agricultural systems.     

Response of Freezing/Thawing Indexes to the Wetting Trend under Warming Climate Conditions over the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2010: A Numerical Simulation

Since the 1990s, the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau(QTP) has experienced a strikingly warming and wetter climate that alters the thermal and hydrological properties of frozen ground. A positive correlation between the warming and thermal degradation in permafrost or seasonally frozen ground(SFG) has long been recognized. Still, a predictive relationship between historical wetting under warming climate conditions and frozen ground has not yet been well demonstrated,despite the expectation that it will b...     

Editorial: Scientific results of the European NEWBALTIC project

1 (¹ Numerical Studies of the Energy and Water Cycle of the BALTIC Region) stands for two international projects funded by the European Community in the years 1996–2000. The campaign was embedded into the continental-scale experiment BALTEX²(² Baltic Sea Experiment), a subproject of GEWEX³(³ Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) (Raschke, 1994; Bengtsson, 1995). The present special issue emerged from two NEWBALTIC progress meetings held in Sweden: One in June 1999 in Abisko and one in January 2000 at Chalmers University of Technology in Gothenburg. The NEWBALTIC community welcomed the suggestion of Professor Bengtsson, Chairman of the BALTEX Science Steering Group, to present selected contributions of the considerable body of NEWBALTIC results in a special MAP⁴(⁴ Meterology and Atmospheric Physics) issue. This collection, it was agreed, might serve as an example for the current state of modelling hydro-meteorological key processes on the continental scale of the Baltic Sea and its environment (see also Raschke et al., 1998, 2001). All papers submitted went through the review process regularly applied by MAP. The present special issue is opened by a review paper of Lennart Bengtsson on the objectives of BALTEX and on the central goal of the NEWBALTIC project: The energy and water cycle of the Baltic Sea. BALTEX in general was planned as a decade-long endeavour with a preparatory phase 1992–1993, a build-up phase 1994–1996 and a major research phase 1997–2001. Most of the work within the two NEWBALTIC projects have been carried out during the major research phase. In the words of the project folder distributed early in the 90ies: BALTEX, as a research programme integrating three disciplines into one single project, will be mutually stimulating and is expected to overcome traditional embarrassing barriers between meteorological, hydrological and oceanographic research. NEWBALTIC, as an important component of BALTEX, has done a visible step into this direction. Concerning the specific time periods chosen, most of the NEWBALTIC studies of this issue concentrate upon a three months period August-September-October 1995 referred to as PIDCAP⁵.(⁵ Pilot Study of Intense Data Collection and Analysis of Precipitation) The total of 13 papers eventually selected for publication in the present special issue are devoted to the two central aspects of the NEWBALTIC campaign: To understand the processes as represented in modern high-resolution coupled models, and to evaluate and digest observed data. So the papers of the present issue have been grouped into these two categories.     

The Surface Energy Budget and Its Impact on the Freeze-thaw Processes of Active Layer in Permafrost Regions of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

The surface energy budget is closely related to freeze-thaw processes and is also a key issue for land surface process research in permafrost regions.In this study,in situ data collected from 2005 to 2015 at the Tanggula site were used to analyze surface energy regimes,the interaction between surface energy budget and freeze-thaw processes.The results confirmed that surface energy flux in the permafrost region of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau exhibited obvious seasonal variations.Annual average net radiation(R_n)for 2010 was 86.5 W m^-2,with the largest being in July and smallest in November.Surface soil heat flux(G₀)was positive during warm seasons but negative in cold seasons with annual average value of 2.7 W m^-2.Variations in R_n and G₀ were closely related to freeze-thaw processes.Sensible heat flux(H)was the main energy budget component during cold seasons,whereas latent heat flux(LE)dominated surface energy distribution in warm seasons.Freeze-thaw processes,snow cover,precipitation,and surface conditions were important influence factors for surface energy flux.Albedo was strongly dependent on soil moisture content and ground surface state,increasing significantly when land surface was covered with deep snow,and exhibited negative correlation with surface soil moisture content.Energy variation was significantly related to active layer thaw depth.Soil heat balance coefficient K was>1 during the investigation time period,indicating the permafrost in the Tanggula area tended to degrade.     

Modeling the effects of climate change on water resources - a review

Hydrologic models provide a framework in which to conceptualize and investigate the relationships between climate and water resources. A review of current studies that assess the impacts of climate change using hydrologic models indicates a number of problem areas common to the variety of models applied. These problem areas include parameter estimation, scale, model validation, climate scenario generation, and data. Research needs to address these problems include development of (1) a more physically based understanding of hydrologic processes and their interactions; (2) parameter measurement and estimation techniques for application over a range of spatial and temporal scales; (3) quantitative measures of uncertainty in model parameters and model results; (4) improved methodologies of climate scenario generation; (5) detailed data sets in a variety of climatic and physiographic regions; and (6) modular modeling tools to provide a framework to facilitate interdisciplinary research. Solutions to these problems would significantly improve the capability of models to assess the effects of climate change.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

青藏高原腹地多年冻土区活动层水热过程对气候变化的响应

活动层作为多年冻土与大气系统之间能量和水分交换通道,其内部的水热状况是控制水循环和地表能量平衡的主要因素,并直接影响着寒区生态环境、水文过程以及多年冻土的稳定性.利用一维水热耦合模型CoupModel,对青藏高原风火山试验点活动层土壤剖面温湿度进行了模拟.模拟效率参数表明模拟结果很好地反映了研究区多年冻土活动层水热状况...     

Progress on observation of cryospheric components and climate-related studies in China

Systematic studies on the cryosphere in China started in the late 1950s. Significant achievements have been made by continuous investigation of glacier inventories, frozen ground observations, paleo-climate analyses of ice cores, process studies and the modeling of cryopsheric/atmospheric interactions. The general facts and understanding of these changes include： （1） Solid precipitation, including the number of days with frost and hail storms, shows a decreasing tendency over the past half century. （2） In most areas glaciers are retreating or have completely vanished （〉80%）, some glaciers are still advancing （5%-20% depending upon time period）. The annual glacial melt water has been increasing since the 1980s. This increased supply of melt water to river runoff in Northwest China is about a 10%-13%. （3） The long-term variability of snow cover in western China is characterized by a large inter-annual variation superimposed on a small increasing trend. Snow cover variability in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau （QXP） is influenced by the Indian monsoon, and conversely impacts monsoon onset and strength and eventually the drought and flood events in middle-low reaches of Yangtze River. （4） Frozen ground, including permafrost, is decaying both in QXP and in Northeast China. The most significant changes occurred in the regions with thickest seasonal frozen ground （SFG）, i.e., inland QXP, then northeastern and northwestern QXP. The cold season air temperature is the main factor controlling SFG change. The increase of ground surface temperatures is more significant than air temperature. （5） The sea ice coverage over the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea has deceased since the 1980s. （6） River ice duration and ice thickness is also decreasing in northern China.
In 2001, the Chinese National Committee of World Climate Research Program/Climate and Cyosphere （WCRP/CliC） （CNC-CliC） was organized to strengthen research on climate and cryosphere in China. Future monitoring of the cryosphe     

Observing systems and data sets related to the cryosphere in Canada: A contribution to planning for the global climate observing system

Abstract

The current status and history of observing systems for snow cover, sea and freshwater ice, glaciers, ice caps, ground ice and permafrost in Canada are reviewed as part of a contribution to the WMO's Global Climate Observing System program. The data requirements that have been identified by previous discussion groups for different research, change detection and monitoring purposes are summarized. Problem areas in data collection and processing, as well as gaps in the observing/data systems, are illustrated and the status of cryospheric data archives relating to Canada, and data distribution, are discussed. The present status is considered to be unsatisfactory in a number of respects for the different cryospheric variables important for global change research.     

Surface ultraviolet radiation

Abstract

One of the main concerns regarding a decrease in stratospheric ozone is the consequential increasein the amount of ultraviolet (UV) radiation that reaches the lower atmosphere and the Earth's surface. Radiationat UV wavelengths where ozone absorbs strongly is detrimental to most biological species, including humanbeings, so a decrease in stratospheric ozone could have a significant impact on the biosphere. This concern hasled to a significant increase in surface UV radiation research over the last two decades since the ratification ofthe Montreal Protocol. Studies include investigations into understanding the complicated absorption and scatteringprocesses involved in the radiative transfer of UV through the atmosphere as well as research on theimpacts of changes in UV radiation. Factors affecting surface UV radiation will be discussed, resources used tostudy surface UV radiation will be described and progress made in our understanding of surface UV radiationover the past two decades will be reviewed.     

Regional hydrologic consequences of increases in atmospheric CO2 and other trace gases

Concern over changes in global climate caused by growing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases has increased in recent years as our understanding of atmospheric dynamics and global climate systems has improved. Yet despite a growing understanding of climatic processes, many of the effects of human-induced climatic changes are still poorly understood. Major alterations in regional hydrologic cycles and subsequent changes in regional water availability may be the most important effects of such climatic changes. Unfortunately, these are among the least well-understood impact. Water-balance modeling techniques - modified for assessing climatic impacts - were developed and tested for a major watershed in northern California using climate-change scenarios from both state-of-the-art general circulation models and from a series of hypothetical scenarios. Results of this research suggest strongly that plausible changes in temperature and precipitation caused by increases in atmospheric trace-gas concentrations could have major impacts on both the timing and magnitude of runoff and soil moisture in important agricultural areas. Of particular importance are predicted patterns of summer soil-moisture drying that are consistent across the entire range of tested scenarios. The decreases in summer soil moisture range from 8 to 44%. In addition, consistent changes were observed in the timing of runoff-specifically dramatic increases in winter runoff and decreases in summer runoff. These hydrologic results raise the possibility of major environmental and socioeconomic difficulties and they will have significant implications for future water-resource planning and management.     

Climates of urbanization: local experiences of water security,conflict and cooperation in peri-urban South-Asia

ABSTRACT

This article explores changing water (in)securities in a context of urbanization and climate change in the peri-urban spaces of four South-Asian cities: Khulna (Bangladesh), Gurugram and Hyderabad (India), and Kathmandu (Nepal). As awareness of water challenges like intensifying use, deteriorating quality and climate change is growing, water security gets more scientific and policy attention. However, in peri-urban areas, the dynamic zones between the urban and the rural, it remains under-researched, despite the specific characteristics of these spaces: intensifying flows of goods, resources, people, and technologies; diversifying uses of, and growing pressures on land and water; and complex and often contradictory governance and jurisdictional institutions. This article analyses local experiences of water (in-)security, conflict and cooperation in relation to existing policies. It uses insights from the analysis of the case studies as a point of departure for a critical reflection on whether a ‘community resilience’ discourse contributes to better understanding these cases of water insecurity and conflict, and to better policy solutions. The authors argue that a community resilience focus risks neglecting important insights about how peri-urban water insecurity problems are experienced by peri-urban populations and produced or reproduced in specific socio-economic, political and policy contexts. Unless supported by in-depth hydro-social research, such a focus may depoliticize basically political questions of water (re) allocation, prioritization, and access for marginalized groups. Therefore, the authors plead for more critical awareness among researchers and policy-makers of the consequences of using a ‘community resilience’ discourse for making sense of peri-urban water (in-)security.

Key policy insights

• There is an urgent need for more (critical) policy and scientific attention to peri-urban water insecurity, conflict, and climate change.

• Although a changing climate will likely play a role, more attention is needed to how water insecurities and vulnerabilities in South Asia are socially produced.

• Researchers and policy-makers should avoid using depoliticized (community) resilience approaches for basically socio-political problems.

     

Health, Safety and Environmental Risks of Underground Co2 Storage – Overview of Mechanisms and Current Knowledge

CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) in geological reservoirs may be part of a strategy to reduce global anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. Insight in the risks associated with underground CO₂ storage is needed to ensure that it can be applied as safe and effective greenhouse mitigation option. This paper aims to give an overview of the current (gaps in) knowledge of risks associated with underground CO₂ storage and research areas that need to be addressed to increase our understanding in those risks. Risks caused by a failure in surface installations are understood and can be minimised by risk abatement technologies and safety measures. The risks caused by underground CO₂ storage (CO₂ and CH₄ leakage, seismicity, ground movement and brine displacement) are less well understood. Main R&D objective is to determine the processes controlling leakage through/along wells, faults and fractures to assess leakage rates and to assess the effects on (marine) ecosystems. Although R&D activities currently being undertaken are working on these issues, it is expected that further demonstration projects and experimental work is needed to provide data for more thorough risk assessment.     

黑龙江省多年冻土分布特征

黑龙江省有近15×104km2多年冻土,可分为大兴安岭北部大片多年冻土亚区、大兴安岭中部大片岛状多年冻土亚区、大小兴安岭稀疏岛状多年冻土亚区等,冻土层厚度在5～100m。岩性、地形、纬度、高度对冻土分布产生影响。气候变暖和人为活动将使冻土退化。     

Northward migration of permafrost along the Mackenzie highway and climatic warming

Based on two field surveys of permafrost distribution, conducted 26 years apart, along the Mackenzie Highway south of Great Slave Lake, Canada, the southern limit of the sporadic discontinuous permafrost zone in the region has migrated northward by about 120 km. To substantiate that the disappearance of perennial frozen ground is largely caused by climatic warming, a detailed trend analysis of monthly air temperature records from nine weather stations was performed using the non-parametric Kendall's test. The results show that the region experienced a general warming trend for the period 1949–1989 and warming is more prominent in the minimum than the maximum temperature series. From estimates of the magnitude of warming trends on a monthly basis, the resultant increase in mean annual air temperature could readily lead to the observed northward migration of permafrost.     

Stochastic Hydrology in the Context of Climate Change

Hydrologic trends, real (physical) or perceived (statistical), suggest that water management be predicated on the assumption of hydrologic nonstationarity. The assumption leaves open the question to what extent will the "trends" be sustained locally and regionally over the future 25, 50 or 100 years corresponding to the economic time horizons of water projects. Whether hydrologic trends are real or perceived, record events of hydrologic extremes, floods and droughts, will be broken with exceedingly high probabilities over the economic lives of water projects. Before the assumption of hydrologic nonstationarity is accepted, the ability to cope with the uncertain impacts of global warming on water management via the operational assumption of hydrologic stationarity should be carefully examined. In the absence of strong physical evidence, trends cannot be unequivocally distinguished from slow oscillations. Slow oscillations can be mimicked by persistence in stationary processes. It is time to examine the relative merits of the assumptions of stationarity and nonstationarity in the operational context of water management. The strategy of wait-and-see, i.e. delaying the making of important, expensive and essentially irreversible capital investments, could served water managers well in coping with the uncertainties regarding climate change.