基于Shepard和OI方法对雨量计逐时资料的分析

引入地形影响效应的日降水量气候分析场,分别运用Shepard和最优插值(OI)两种插值方法对广东和广西2007年5月20日—8月30日汛期小时雨量计降水量进行插值,得到0.125°×0.125°分辨率的规范化网格资料。结果表明:无论是直接插值还是用降水比率(地形影响效应的日降水量气候分析场)插值,两种方法均能很好地体现广东和广西雨量计站点观测降水的季内变化和日变化特征。虽然用直接插值方法比用降水比率插值方法得到的降水空间分布更为平滑,但估值精度没有用降水比率插值方法高。通过交叉检验进一步表明,总体上OI方法优于Shepard方法,而考虑地形影响效应的降水比率OI方法为最优,能有效提高相关性,并减少均方根误差和系统误差。     

Estimating the error in vertically interpolated forecast‐observation differences: U‐ and v‐wind components

Abstract

Data assimilation in numerical weather forecasting corrects current forecast values by subtracting a portion of interpolated forecast‐minus‐observation differences at the points of a three‐dimensional grid. Deviations used in updating a forecast data field are forecast errors obtained or derived from observations available at update time. When observations are missing at mandatory levels, construction of full vertical soundings by interpolation introduces extraneous errors. The present paper is concerned with determination of the error in vertical extrapolations of surface winds, and of aircraft and satellite cloud‐tracked winds. In addition it examines the effect on accuracy of using location‐specific statistics compared to averaged statistics as the basis for the interpolation weighting scheme and compares errors of one‐ and two‐variable interpolations.

Interpolation accuracy tests demonstrate the influence of the interpolation scheme on the quality of interpolated information used in forecast updating. The results show that the level of accuracy exceeds the benchmark provided by monthly mean forecast error values only with bivariate interpolation of wind components from off‐level data sources.     

Frequency analysis of short‐duration rainfalls

Abstract

An investigation was carried out to determine the appropriateness of a probability distribution and fitting technique commonly used in Canada for rainfall frequency analysis.

The extreme value type 1 (EV1) distribution was assessed for three long‐term Canadian stations: Victoria, St Thomas and Québec. The EV1 distribution appears to provide a reasonable fit for durations varying from 5 min to 6 h, but is not clearly superior to another two‐parameter distribution, the lognormal.

The fitting technique, known as modified moments or regression, was assessed by comparing it with three other fitting techniques: moments, maximum likelihood and adjusted maximum likelihood. This comparison was carried out using Monte Carlo simulation techniques over the parameter space deemed to be representative of short duration rainfall data for Canada. In terms of estimating rainfall amounts of specified return period, the modified moments technique was the poorest with regard to both bias and efficiency. In general, the maximum likelihood estimates were the most efficient and were relatively unbiased.     

Improvement of radar quantitative precipitation estimation based on real-time adjustments to <Emphasis Type="Italic">Z-R</Emphasis> relationships and inverse distance weighting correction schemes

The errors in radar quantitative precipitation estimations consist not only of systematic biases caused by random noises but also spatially nonuniform biases in radar rainfall at individual rain-gauge stations.In this study,a real-time adjustment to the radar reflectivity-rainfall rates(Z-R) relationship scheme and the gauge-corrected,radar-based,estimation scheme with inverse distance weighting interpolation was developed.Based on the characteristics of the two schemes,the two-step correction technique of radar quantitative precipitation estimation is proposed.To minimize the errors between radar quantitative precipitation estimations and rain gauge observations,a real-time adjustment to the Z-R relationship scheme is used to remove systematic bias on the time-domain.The gauge-corrected,radar-based,estimation scheme is then used to eliminate non-uniform errors in space.Based on radar data and rain gauge observations near the Huaihe River,the two-step correction technique was evaluated using two heavy-precipitation events.The results show that the proposed scheme improved not only in the underestimation of rainfall but also reduced the root-mean-square error and the mean relative error of radar-rain gauge pairs.     

基于台站降水资料对不同空间内插方法的比较

如何把离散的气象台站资料通过合适的空间内插方法转变成规则的网格数据,对于气候变化分析和模拟研究具有重要的意义.作者利用中国区域160个常用台站10年降水观测资料为例,分别采用克里格(Kriging)插值、反距离加权、Delaunay三角剖分线性插值、双谐样条(Biharmonic Spline)插值和Cressman客观分析等几种常见的空间内插方法,较为系统地分析和比较了这几种内插方法插值结果之间的异同,对其优缺点和适用范围进行了适当讨论,并采用不同的网格分辨率和影响半径对Cressman客观分析方法做了进一步分析比较.结果表明:在台站分布密集的区域不同空间内插方法之间差异较小,在台站分布稀疏的区域则差异较大;与更加密集的台站观测资料的比较显示,自动调节影响半径的Cressman客观分析方法与双谐样条插值方法误差相对较小.     

笛卡儿坐标系的双多普勒天气雷达三维风场反演技术

文中研究了笛卡尔坐标系下双多普勒天气雷达三维风场反演技术 ,提出了包括雷达原始资料的预处理 ,空间插值以及可靠性检验的新方法 ,提高了反演结果的可信度和精确度。使用模拟的双多普勒雷达体扫资料进行了反演试验 ,结果表明 :本文的方法能够比较真实地反映风场的三维结构 ,可以用于真实风场的反演。     

An evaluation of extrapolation techniques for the short‐term prediction of rain amounts

Abstract

Twenty‐seven radar cells from the Tropical Atlantic observed during GATE were followed and measurements of their fluxes and areas for initial time increments T₀ were fitted to various extrapolation schemes. The extrapolation procedure that gave the smallest error inforecasting the changes influx and area, was found to be the linear one and the optimum increment T₀ was about 30 min. However, even though these techniques have the advantage of establishing a trend in the behaviour of the flux and area with time, a comparison of the forecast errors from the linear extrapolation scheme with those from the “status quo” (persistence) assumption shows little if any improvement.

A technique including both cell motion and internal changes influx and area of the rain cells was developed to evaluate the accuracy of rain accumulation forecasts. It was found that the errors generated by the “status quo” assumption were of the order of 77% for a 2‐h forecast with little improvement by allowing for the extrapolation of area and flux.     

Study on Retrieving Three-Dimensional Wind Using Simulated Dual-Doppler Radar Data in the Cartesian Space

1. Introduction Armijo (1969) proposed the three-dimensional wind retrieved equations using multiple-Doppler weather radar network in Cartesian space. There are many sources of error for recovering 3D wind using these equations. These factors include advection and turbulence in the weather system, the error of the empirical relationship between the radar reflectivity factor and the terminal fall velocity of the precipita- tion particle, integrating the air mass continuity equa- tion (problem …     

An assessment of the near real‐time rainfall network on Canada's eastern Prairies

Abstract

Bogusing errors associated with estimating rainfalls for ungauged points on Canada's eastern Prairies based on the near real‐time network have been determined for growing season totals, summer monthly amounts and summer daily values. The bogusing errors as a percentage of the concurrent area‐average amount or the coefficients of variation decreased as the measurement period increased. Growing season precipitation totals can be approximated to within 20%. The error associated with bogused summer monthly amounts was more than twice as large. The field of summer daily rainfall amounts cannot be estimated accurately. It can be concluded, therefore, that the precipitation network on the eastern Prairies is not sufficient for applications requiring the input of summer daily or monthly precipitation amounts from points other than the gauged locations. The network does, nevertheless, provide relatively accurate estimates of the growing season's precipitation field to assist in defining the climate.

Reductions in the magnitude of the bogusing errors associated with estimated precipitation amounts can be achieved by adding new stations to the network. While additional sites provide data at the newly gauged points, they do little to improve the network's representation of the rainfall field unless the new stations are added in fairly large numbers.     

A study of planetary wave errors in a spectral numerical weather prediction model

Abstract

A series of fifteen 96‐h forecasts made with a spectral numerical weather prediction model is studied with reference to errors in the planetary wavelengths. The major contributor to the short (less than 48‐h) range forecast error is identified as an external mode. The medium range forecast error (96 h) is internal in character and reflects a deficiency in the simulation of the quasi‐stationary components.     

How effective is the new generation of GPM satellite precipitation in characterizing the rainfall variability over Malaysia?

We investigated the potential of the new generation of satellite precipitation product from the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) to characterize the rainfall in Malaysia. Most satellite precipitation products have limited ability to precisely characterize the high dynamic rainfall variation that occurred at both time and scale in this humid tropical region due to the coarse grid size to meet the physical condition of the smaller land size, sub-continent and islands. Prior to the status quo, an improved satellite precipitation was required to accurately measure the rainfall and its distribution. Subsequently, the newly released of GPM precipitation product at half-hourly and 0.1° resolution served an opportunity to anticipate the aforementioned conflict. Nevertheless, related evidence was not found and therefore, this study made an initiative to fill the gap. A total of 843 rain gauges over east (Borneo) and west Malaysia (Peninsular) were used to evaluate the rainfall the GPM rainfall data. The assessment covered all critical rainy seasons which associated with Asian Monsoon including northeast (Nov. - Feb.), southwest (May - Aug.) and their subsequent inter-monsoon period (Mar. - Apr. & Sep. - Oct.). The ability of GPM to provide quantitative rainfall estimates and qualitative spatial rainfall patterns were analysed. Our results showed that the GPM had good capacity to depict the spatial rainfall patterns in less heterogeneous rainfall patterns (Spearman’s correlation, 0.591 to 0.891) compared to the clustered one (r = 0.368 to 0.721). Rainfall intensity and spatial heterogeneity that is largely driven by seasonal monsoon has significant influence on GPM ability to resolve local rainfall patterns. In quantitative rainfall estimation, large errors can be primarily associated with the rainfall intensity increment. 77% of the error variation can be explained through rainfall intensity particularly the high intensity (> 35 mm d^-1). A strong relationship between GPM rainfall and error was found from heavy (~35 mm d^-1) to violent rain (160 mm d^-1). The output of this study provides reference regarding the performance of GPM data for respective hydrology studies in this region.     

Anticipated changes in analysis accuracy with the removal of Ocean Weather Ship P

Abstract

Analysis error patterns have been established for the Pacific Weather Centre Experiment Area, and comparisons made between errors computed for meteorological observing arrays, including Ocean Weather Ship (OWS) P, and errors computed for several alternative arrays which excluded OWS P. These assessments of the impact of replacing the ocean weather ship with alternative observing equipment indicate that, above the 1000‐mb pressure surface, there will be a significant loss of accuracy in the forecast‐minus‐observation analyses regardless of proposed additional report systems. Near the surface, forecast error variances are estimated to decrease slightly with an increase of reports from buoys and ships of opportunity within the region.

The dependence of the assessments on the data selection procedure and on correlation representations for the region suggest that some loss may be compensated by more efficient use of available data. Refinements in the objective analysis scheme are seen to be especially important to analysis accuracy in regions lacking radiosonde coverage.     

Comparison of Canadian daily ice charts with surface observations off Newfoundland,winter 1992

Abstract

Forecast ice drift rates and thicknesses displayed on daily ice charts and forecast winds for the Canadian east coast are compared to on‐ice observations made during the second Canadian Atlantic Storm Program (CASP II) of March 1992. Observed and 24‐hour forecasts of daily ice drift rates were weakly correlated even though long‐term means closely matched observations. Daily drift rates have an RMS error of 13 cm s^‐1 relative to a 15 cm s^‐1 mean in addition to an RMS direction error of 50 degrees. Contributions towards daily drift uncertainties were: the estimation of winds, unmodelled physics of ocean and ice cover processes; and the inconsistency in the methods used by the ice forecaster. Correlation coefficients between forecast winds and on‐ice observed winds decreased from 0.8 at 0‐hour to 0.7 for the 30‐hour forecast. Similar results were found between ice drift rates from forecast winds. Histograms of ice thicknesses observed along narrow swaths using a helicopter‐towed electromagnetic sensor compared well with undeformed ice thicknesses representing large areas on ice charts, with differences mainly caused by difference in ice type representation and by co‐registering the two data sets.     

Reflectivity‐rain rate relationships for convective rainshowers in Edmonton: Research note

Abstract

A reflectivity‐rainfall rate (Z‐R) relationship is derived from Carvel radar and Edmonton rain gauge measurements. Our analysis indicates that the traditional point‐by‐point comparison method is not accurate for Alberta summertime precipitation due to timing errors in fast moving convective storms. The Window Probability Matching Method (WPMM) was superior and provided a robust Z‐R relationship in the form of Z = 32.5 R^1.65.     

Radar measurement of rainfall by differential propagation phase: A pilot experiment

Abstract

A pilot project concerning the measurement of rainfall by polarization diversity radar, conducted jointly by the Alberta Research Council and the University of Essex in the summer of 1989, is described. The objective of the experiment was to test the theory that differential propagation phase shift can give a better estimate of rainfall with high rain rates (about 30 mm h^?1 and greater) than reflectivity measurements.

The project comprised a field experiment that was conducted in central Alberta during the period 20 July to 2 August 1989. The field experiment involved observing storms within about a 70‐km radius from Red Deer with the ARC S‐band polarization diversity radar and measuring rainfall at the ground through a network of fixed, volunteer observers and a mobile storm‐chase operation.

Theory describing how differential propagation phase may be extracted from the data recorded by the radar system is given.

Data collected on three days during the experiment (27 July, 29 July and 2 August) have been analysed and the results are presented. A total of 31 samples of total rainfall amount were collected on these days. All but three of the 31 radar rainfall amount predictions obtained from the differential propagation phase are within a factor of 2 of the rainfall observed at the ground. In fact, the average ratio of the total rainfall amount predicted from the differential propagation phase to the total rainfall amount measured at the ground is 1.16 for the 31 samples. This suggests that, on average, the total rainfall amount predicted from the differential propagation phase is only 16% higher than that measured at the ground. Of the 31 events, over a third involved some contamination of the differential propagation phase measurement through hail. Furthermore, because the K_DP technique does not rely on parameters dependent on precipitation characteristics or adjustment factors, the technique can be validated in a convenient location and then applied anywhere.

On the other hand, the radar rainfall amount estimates derived from Z‐R relations represent, in general, a large overestimation of the rainfall amount observed at the ground, especially when hail is present. No attempt was made to adjust or calibrate the radar rainfall estimates with raingauge data.     

中央气象台探空资料客观分析业务系统的研究与实现

研发了基于Cressman线性插值方法的探空资料客观分析业务系统。针对客观分析在业务工作中的问题,提出几种解决方法：①提出了在观测场中找出可疑站点的检测算法,避免了可疑观测值对分析场的影响;②通过对分析的等值线进行后处理操作,做到分析结果与观测数据一致,不增加或者漏掉高低值中心;③提出了对分析场进行自适应平滑处理的方法,即保留了小面积高低值中心,又提高了等值线的光滑与美观程度。试验结果显示：使用该方法得到的探空资料客观分析结果与观测数据较一致,在等值线的光滑程度上接近预报员的手工分析结果,从而证明了本文所提方法的可行性和有效性。     

初值不确定性对暴雨数值预报影响的初步研究

为了研究初值不确定性对我国南方暴雨数值预报的影响,依据历史降水资料的统计分型,选取华南暴雨型、江淮暴雨型和黄淮暴雨型等三类型中具有代表性的暴雨过程,采用AREM模式以不同资料分析场(常规观测资料、NCEP和ERA40同化分析资料)作为初值进行暴雨预报对比试验。试验结果表明,对于各类型暴雨,不同资料初值的差异都会引起暴雨数值预报结果的较大差异;在此基础上,采用经验正交函数(EOF)分析方法,分析了各类暴雨初值误差及其变化信息,从中提取出主要的误差分量,并对这类误差的数值预报影响进行了敏感性试验和预报验证,结果显示,寻找和消除主要的初值误差,对改进暴雨数值预报结果具有重要作用。     

GIS空间插值方法在内蒙古气温插值中的应用

文章对GIS软件中几种常见插值方法的原理进行了详述,剖析了插值过程中参数设置对插值结果产生的影响。以内蒙古多年平均气温插值为例,对比了各种插值方法的优劣,结果表明:普通克里金法的插值结果最能反映内蒙古多年平均气温的分布特征,均方根误差为1.138℃;反距离权重法可反映基本特征但等值线不够平滑、局部有"牛眼"现象,均方根误差为1.260℃;趋势面法不能反映基本特征,均方根误差为1.425℃;使用协同克里金法,将高程作为协同因子对普通克里金算法进行改善,未取得明显效果。     

地形追随坐标系下埃特尔位涡的计算

随着数值天气预报模式的日益普及以及位涡在不同天气、气候时、空尺度上的广泛应用,对采用模式输出资料计算的埃特尔（Ertel）位涡的精度提出了更高要求。将气象要素从中尺度模式普遍采用的地形追随坐标系向定义位涡的z或p坐标系的插值过程（插值法）,是导致埃特尔位涡计算误差的主要原因。文中利用地形追随坐标系与z（p）坐标系的变换关系,导出了z坐标系定义的埃特尔位涡在地形追随坐标系中的表达形式,实现了直接在模式格点上计算埃特尔位涡（直接法）,在提高计算精度的同时,保留了其在z坐标系中的物理意义,方便了分析与应用。为了进一步分析直接法在减少计算误差方面的作用,使用WRF模式对2016年7月发生在华北地区复杂地形背景下的一次黄淮气旋爆发过程进行了模拟,利用模式输出资料对此次天气过程中强降水时段插值法计算误差的分布进行了分析。结果表明,利用直接法计算位涡可有效减少插值法引入的计算误差,中低层均方根误差可达0.5 PVU,中高层可达0.3 PVU。将其应用到中小尺度对流性天气精细化结构的分析及气候统计研究中,可以有效减少插值法误差对结果产生的不良影响,提高计算和分析准确度。