A century of precipitation variability along the pacific coast of North America and its impact

Precipitation data at seven stations along the west coast of North America, dating back to 1851 at some stations, are synthesized by means of empirical orthogonal function analysis. Characteristics of runs of generally wet and generally dry conditions are quantified. A significant change in precipitation regime, lasting 41 yrs, occurred in the middle of this century and could return in the future. Drought occurrences, similar to midwestern United States episodes, appear in the data, but are not statistically verifiable. A single example of the interaction of precipitation variability and society is given. Man's actions amplify the impact of variability on hydroelectric power generation in two ways: Society adapts itself rapidly to transient beneficial conditions, creating a false sense of well-being; technology expands to consume maximum available resources, decreasing system resilience.     

The numerical simulation of storm surges along the Bangladesh coast

Using a set of basic hydrodynamic equations governing the motion in a sea, a vertically-integrated coastal zone numerical model has been developed for the simulation of storm surges generated by the tropical stroms striking the Bangladesh coast. The model is fully nonlinear and uses a conditionally stable semi-explicit finite difference scheme for solving the relevant equations. In this model the analysis area extends from 87°E to 93°E along the south coast of Bangladesh and there are three open-sea boundaries situated along 87°E, 93°E and 19°N. With this analysis area it is possible to record, on average, 24 h of the surge generating capacity of most of the severe cyclones before landfall at the Bangladesh coast.Numerical experiments are performed with the help of this model to simulate the surges generated by several severe cyclonic storms which struck the Bangladesh coast durin the past 25 y. To compare the model predicted surges with the observed sea-surface elevations, three cyclonic storms have been chosen for which reliable observations regarding storm characteristics and the associated surges were available. The predicted peak sea-surface elevations compare well with the observed values at Chittagong port.     

Sea-level response to atmospheric forcing along the north coast of Persian Gulf

Summary Data from tide gauges (1990–1999) at Bandar Abbas and Bushehr combined with atmospheric data at both stations are utilized to investigate the mean sea-level (MSL) response to meteorological forcing functions along the north coast of the Persian Gulf. The relations between MSL and forces due to air pressure, air temperature and local wind are examined. The characteristics of variability of each field are analyzed using the spectral analysis method. The annual cycle is dominant in the sea-level, atmospheric pressure, air temperature and wind spectra. The influence of local meteorological functions are quantified using forward stepwise regression techniques. The results suggest that 71.5% and 71.2% variations in the MSL of Bandar Abbas and Bushehr stations are due to meteorological forces at each stations. The model indicates that the most significant influence on the observed variation of MSL at Bandar Abbas is air pressure, while at Bushehr is air temperature. The results of multivariate and simple regression show that these parameters are highly intercorrelated. The sea-level is not significantly correlated with the monthly and winter NAO and Monsoon in the Persian Gulf. The remaining variations are due to density of sea water (steric effect), which has considerable influence on the sea-level variations, and coastal upwelling.     

The California tsunami of 15 June 2005 along the coast of North America

Abstract

An M_w = 7.2 earthquake occurred on 15 June 2005 (utc) seaward of northern California off the west coast of North America. Based on the earthquake location and source parameters, the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center issued a tsunami warning for the region extending from the California‐Mexico border to northern Vancouver Island, British Columbia (the first tsunami warning for this region since the 1994 M_w = 8.2 Shikotan earthquake). Six tide gauges on the west coast recorded tsunami waves from this event, with a maximum trough‐to‐crest wave height of 27.7 cm observed at Crescent City, California. Waves of 2.5 to 6.5 cm were measured at the five other sites: Port Orford (Oregon), North Spit and Arena Cove (California), and Tofino and Bamfield (British Columbia). The open‐ocean Deep‐ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) buoys, 46404 and 46405, recorded tsunami waves of 0.5 and 1.5 cm, respectively, closely matching wave heights derived from numerical models. Incoming tsunami wave energy was mainly at periods of 10 to 40 min. The observed tsunami wave field is interpreted in terms of edge (trapped) and leaky (non‐trapped) waves and a “trapping coefficient” is introduced to estimate the relative contribution of these two wave types. Due to the high (3000 m) water depth in the source area, approximately two‐thirds of the total tsunami energy went to leaky wave modes and only one‐third to edge wave modes. The improved response to and preparedness for the 2005 California tsunami compared to the 1994 Shikotan tsunami is attributable, in part, to the operational capability provided by the open‐ocean bottom‐pressure recorder (DART) system, higher quality coastal tide gauges, and the effective use of numerical models to simulate real‐time tsunamis.     

渤海北部沿海近岸雾的特征分析

分析了渤海北部沿海近岸营口站和熊岳站海雾的时间分布和地理分布等。结果表明：1954-2007年渤海北部沿海近岸两站浓雾日数呈递增趋势,两站白天递增趋势均强于夜间, 熊岳站通过0.05显著性检验;1954-2007年沿海近岸两站的轻雾日数整日、白天和夜间均呈递增趋势,并通过0.01显著性检验;渤海北部沿海近岸的浓雾逐月分布集中在11月至翌年2月;渤海北部沿岸海雾的逐时分布集中,出现频率最高的时间是06-08时。     

Sea/land breeze climatological characteristics along the northern Croatian Adriatic coast

Summary Climatological characteristics along the northern Croatian Adriatic coast have been examined for nine meteorological stations for the summertime sea/land breeze circulation. The stations considered are Pula-airport, Opatija, Rijeka, Senj, Malinska, Rijeka-airport, Mali Lošinj, Rab and Zadar. The hourly surface measurements at each station from June to September for the period 1991–2004 as well as the radiosoundings in Zadar (from 2002 to 2004) were used for the analysis. A dataset with the sea/land breeze days was formed according to the several criteria. The mean daily maxima of both air and sea surface temperatures were more influenced by the large scale disturbances toward north (e.g. in Rijeka or Opatija) compared to the values for e.g. Zadar. Furthermore, the influence of the large scale disturbances diminished toward the south concerning the sea–land temperature difference only at the stations placed at Rijeka Bay and Velebit channel. The strongest sea breeze was found at Pula-airport and the most frequent ones at Opatija and Zadar. At Senj the rarest, the weakest and the shortest sea breeze was observed. The climatological records of wind speed and air-sea temperature difference (ΔT) showed for Opatija, Malinska and Zadar that the maximum measured wind speed is around 4.5 °C confirming the nonlinear relationship between the sea breeze speeds and the ΔT during the day. At most stations, the clockwise rotation of the hodographs prevails which is typical for the Northern hemisphere due to Coriolis force, with the exception at Senj and Malinska. While the hodographs for Pula, Rijeka-airport and Mali Lošinj display a later onset of the prevailing sea breeze because of the interaction among several sea breeze circulations, the results for Opatija, Zadar and Senj show considerably distorted hodographs because of the nearby channeling of the air flow.     

Past and future sea-level rise along the coast of North Carolina,USA

We evaluate relative sea level (RSL) trajectories for North Carolina, USA, in the context of tide-gauge measurements and geological sea-level reconstructions spanning the last ~11,000 years. RSL rise was fastest (~7 mm/yr) during the early Holocene and slowed over time with the end of the deglaciation. During the pre-Industrial Common Era (i.e., 0–1800 CE), RSL rise (~0.7 to 1.1 mm/yr) was driven primarily by glacio-isostatic adjustment, though dampened by tectonic uplift along the Cape Fear Arch. Ocean/atmosphere dynamics caused centennial variability of up to ~0.6 mm/yr around the long-term rate. It is extremely likely (probability P=0.95) that 20th century RSL rise at Sand Point, NC, (2.8 ± 0.5 mm/yr) was faster than during any other century in at least 2,900 years. Projections based on a fusion of process models, statistical models, expert elicitation, and expert assessment indicate that RSL at Wilmington, NC, is very likely (P=0.90) to rise by 42–132 cm between 2000 and 2100 under the high-emissions RCP 8.5 pathway. Under all emission pathways, 21st century RSL rise is very likely (P>0.90) to be faster than during the 20th century. Due to RSL rise, under RCP 8.5, the current ‘1-in-100 year’ flood is expected at Wilmington in ~30 of the 50 years between 2050-2100.     

Numerical simulation of typhoon surges along the east coast of Zhejiang and Jiangsu Provinces

Using conventional two-dimensional nonlinear storm model, the storm surges caused by the six ty-phoons with different kinds of tracks which hit the coast of Zhejiang and Jiangsu Provinces including Shanghai during the period from 1953 to 1974 are computed numerically. To avoid the nonlinear and linear computational instabilities, a finite-difference scheme with the quadratic conservation (or the semi-momentum) is adopted and a criterion for linear computational stability is derived. The basic parameters used in this computation are: the space step Δs=30km, the time step Δt=200sec, the coefficient of the wind stress = 2.6 "10-> and the coefficient of the bottom friction v&2=2.0x 10-'. The pressure and surface wind distribution for typhoon are assumed to be characterized by Fujita's pressure formula and Uerto's wind model, respectively.     

Distribution of convection associated with tropical cyclones making landfall along the South China coast

Summary This study examines the convection distribution associated with 18 TCs that made landfall along the South China coast during 1995 and 2005. Cloud-top temperatures from high-resolution satellite imageries of the Geosynchronous Meteorological Satellite 5 are used as proxy of strong convection. It is found that convection tends to be enhanced on the western side of the TC as it makes landfall in 10 of the cases, in agreement with the conclusion of some previous studies. Four cases have stronger convection on the eastern side. This “deviation” from the general rule appears to be related to the TCs being more slow-moving or their interaction of the TC with another land surface prior to its making landfall along the South China coast. For the remaining cases in which no significant asymmetries in convection can be identified, the vertical wind shear appears to enhance convection on the east side.     

The arrival rate of severe storms off the east coast of Canada: Research note

Abstract

Modern structural analysis techniques are heavily dependent upon statistical methods. The determination of design loads involves the calculation of long‐return period environmental parameters such as the 100‐year wind speed or the 100‐year wave height. One way in which to do this is to use the theory of compound distributions rather than the usual extreme value theory. Of critical importance, however, is the determination of which probability distributions to use. It is shown in this paper that the arrival rate of storms on Canada's East Coast is Poisson distributed and, therefore, that compound distributions may be used to calculate long return‐period environmental parameters.     

台风“利奇马”影响期间浙江沿海海浪特征分析

利用浮标资料,对“利奇马”影响期间浙江沿海风和海浪特征及其关系进行分析,并对欧洲中心模式预报与实况进行对比,基于模式预报分析海浪的空间结构。结果发现:(1)随着台风靠近、登陆和远离,海浪波型经历了混合浪—风浪—混合浪的变化,且最大波高越大周期越长,浙江南部沿海海浪较北部沿海更具风浪特点;(2)浪高受风速影响大,北部沿海更为明显,持续风向对浪高增大有明显作用,当风向由向岸转为与海岸线平行、或由与海岸线平行转为离岸时,浪高迅速减小,反之浪高迅速增大;(3)台风靠近和影响浙江时,有效波高与风速的等值线平行,7、8、10级风分别与巨浪、狂浪、狂涛区有很好的对应,有效波高越高,风速对波高的决定作用越明显。     

斯里兰卡近岸风暴潮模拟中风暴潮-潮汐相互作用特征分析:一个个例研究

利用三维普林斯顿海洋模型（POM）以及逐时水位观测数据,研究印度洋北部斯里兰卡北部海岸风暴潮-潮汐相互作用特征.选择了2008年的"Nisha"台风作为台风风暴潮个例进行研究,并进行了3个数值敏感性试验.经验证,该风暴潮模型可以很好地再现该台风期间研究区域内的潮汐和总海水水位.试验结果表明,沿斯里兰卡西北海岸的风暴潮-潮汐相互作用显著,其强度与台风的强度和轨迹相关.当TC在42 h达到较大强度时,可以得到风暴潮-潮汐相互作用导致的最大增水值TSI （0.6 m）和从印度洋外海向斯里兰卡西北部浅滩流入的最大相互作用流场.在TC强度较弱的第30小时,得到最大负TSI （-0.6 m）和向南流出西北部浅水区域的较弱的相互作用流场.在整个台风期间,强TSI都发生在斯里兰卡西北部海滩到对岸的印度洋近岸区域.     

A low-level jet along the Benguela coast, an integral part of the Benguela current ecosystem

The Benguela Current Ecosystem of Southern Africa is the strongest wind-driven coastal upwelling system known. This is one of the most productive ocean areas in the world, extremely rich in fishery resources with a total catch in excess of one million tons per annum. Marine life off the coast relies heavily on the nutrient-rich upwellings of the cold Benguela current. Warming events occur along this coast in association with many El Niños. These tremendously disrupt the coastal ecosystem, reducing productivity and devastating the anchovy and sardine fisheries. This article demonstrates for the first time the existence of a low-level atmospheric jet along the Benguela Coast of the southeastern Atlantic. Blowing parallel to the coast, this jet drives the coastal upwelling system and is part of a mechanism that links Pacific El Niño events to Southern Africa. The existence of such a jet has tremendous implications for the Benguela current and its response to climatic variability and change because a positive feedback exists between the intensity of this jet and the intensity of coastal upwelling. This may enhance the response of the Benguela Current Ecosystem to climatic variability, making it particularly susceptible to the impacts of global climate change.     

Simulation of coastal winds along the central west coast of India using the MM5 mesoscale model

A high-resolution mesoscale numerical model (MM5) has been used to study the coastal atmospheric circulation of the central west coast of India, and Goa in particular. The model is employed with three nested domains. The innermost domain of 3 km mesh covers Goa and the surrounding region. Simulations have been carried out for three different seasons—northeast (NE) monsoon, transition period and southwest (SW) monsoon with appropriate physics options to understand the coastal wind system. The simulated wind speed and direction match well with the observations. The model winds show the presence of a sea breeze during the NE monsoon season and transition period, and its absence during the SW monsoon season. In the winter period, the synoptic flow is northeasterly (offshore) and it weakens the sea breeze (onshore flow) resulting in less diurnal variation, while during the transition period, the synoptic flow is onshore and it intensifies the sea breeze. During the northeast monsoon at an altitude of above 750 m, the wind direction reverses, and this is the upper return current, indicating the vertical extent of the sea breeze. A well-developed land sea breeze circulation occurs during the transition period, with vertical extension of 300 and 1,100 m, respectively.     

辽宁沿海高速公路浓雾气候特征及气象影响因子

利用2005—2018年辽宁沿海高速公路沿线气象站点观测资料和NCEP再分析资料,对辽宁沿海高速公路浓雾气候特征及其与各相关气象要素的关系进行分析,并探讨了利于浓雾发生的环流特征和影响因子。结果表明：辽宁沿海高速公路年均浓雾日数由西至东呈现高—低—高的分布特点,同时,辽东沿海高速公路沿线各站年均浓雾日数差异较小,且存在明显的自东向西的下降趋势;辽西沿线高速公路各站差异最大,受到局地的影响最强。沿海高速公路年均浓雾日数具有明显的月变化与季节变化特征,全年有两个浓雾出现的集中时段,分别为2—3月和10—11月;秋季浓雾日数占全年的比率最高。秋季沿海高速公路浓雾以0—200 m的强浓雾为主;温度为10—15℃,相对湿度大于98%,风速为0—3 m·s^-1,风向为偏东北风时,浓雾出现的概率最大。辽宁秋季沿海地区受副热带高压影响较小,受东亚大槽等中高纬度纬向环流和极涡的影响较大,纬向环流和极涡越强（弱）,辽宁沿海地区浓雾日数越多（少）;辽宁沿海地区浓雾的水汽一部分来源于辽宁东部山区,一部分来源于渤海、黄海北部。辽宁沿海地区秋季浓雾并非以海雾为主,而以辐射雾、锋面雾居多,同时辽东沿海地区有来自辽东山区的平流雾。     

中国沿海风能分布特征及其影响因子的数值模拟

利用欧洲中期天气预报中心0.75°×0.75°再分析资料,对中国海岸线两侧相邻区域内的风能、风速进行研究,讨论不同季节、不同区域风能、风速的分布特征;利用WRF(Weather Research Forecast)模式模拟海表面温度上升和城市化发展对中国东部沿海风能的影响。结果表明:1)中国沿海风能的时空分布不均一,季节变化明显。春季渤海湾区域风能明显大于其他三区(华东沿海、东南沿海和南海北部沿海区域)。夏季渤海湾区域风能显著小于其他三区,而华东沿海区域风能稍大。秋季东南沿海和南海北部沿海区域风能较大。冬季沿海四区风能大小接近。一般而言,秋冬季风能较大、春夏季风能较小,夏季风能显著小于冬季。2)不同区域、不同季节风速的年际变化存在明显差异。除冬季东南沿海区域风速有增大趋势外,其他区域各季节风速都呈缓慢减小趋势,但减小幅度很小。3)海表温度升高在不同季节对风速的影响不同。春季渤海湾和山东半岛、北部湾沿海及杭州湾风速随海温升高而增强。夏季海温升高幅度不同,则风速显著变化区域不同,但大部分沿海区域风速随海温升高而增强。秋冬季风速随海表温度升高而增强,影响区域较稳定:秋季东南沿海和华东沿海区域风速增强,冬季渤海湾和南海北部沿海区域风速增强。4)城市化发展增大了地表摩擦力,使得夏秋季登陆我国的热带气旋迅速减弱,沿海风速随之减小。     

Cause-effect relationships between sea surface temperature, precipitation and sea level along the Bangladesh coast

Summary  The Bangladesh coast, which lies on the confluence of three mighty rivers, the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna, with the Himalayas to the north and the Bay of Bengal to the south, is an ideal zone for sea level rise due to enhanced rainfall during the monsoon season from June to September. An attempt has been made here to look into the cause-effect relationships between observed trends in sea surface temperature (SST) over the Bay of Bengal and the trends in monsoon rains and sea level in Bangladesh. The study utilizes the 14-year satellite-derived SSTs over the Bay of Bengal for 1985–1998, the tide gauge stations data along the Bangladesh coast for 1977–1998 and the 31-year monsoon rainfall data for Bangladesh, 1961–1991. Received October 20, 2000     

Modeling studies of impacts from the Guinea Highlands in relation to tropical cyclogenesis along the West African coast

Numerical simulations of three separate events of tropical cyclogenesis (TC-genesis) off the West African coast between the years of 2006 and 2008 were performed. The purpose of this study was to investigate the processes that take place during the transition of an African easterly wave (AEW) and any associated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) as they progress from continental West Africa into the maritime environment of the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Three tropical cyclones that were associated with AEWs and related MCSs over continental West Africa that progressed off the coast, later achieving at least tropical storm (TS) strength, were selected to be investigated. The three tropical cyclones were: TS Debby (2006), Hurricane Helene (2006), and TS Josephine (2008). The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was utilized to conduct numerical model simulations beginning 72?h prior to each system’s AEW being classified as a tropical depression (TD). Results demonstrated that the model was able to recapture the evolution of each MCS in association with AEWs during all three events. The sensitivity experiments of the impact of topography (i.e., Guinea Highlands) suggested that the elevation of the Guinea Highlands plays a significant role in relation to TC-genesis, even though the highest peaks of the Guinea Highlands are only approximately 1,300?m. Simulation results supported that topographical blocking and northwest deflection of strong southwest winds from the Atlantic played an important role in the enhancement of low-level cyclonic circulation. Without the presence of the Highlands, wind speeds associated with each circulation by simulation’s end were either weaker or the simulation failed to generate a circulation completely. As the MCSs developed along the coast, they became phase locked in the downstream flow of an AEW as it exited the West African coast. The MCS in each event acted as a catalyst for TC-genesis with the associated AEW. Without the Guinea Highlands, the MCS features were either weakened or failed to develop, thus hindering TC-genesis for these three cases.