Decadal‐to‐interdecadal fluctuations of arctic sea‐ice cover and the atmospheric circulation during 1954–1994

Abstract

The relationship between the Arctic and subarctic sea‐ice concentration (SIC) anomalies, particularly those associated with the decadal‐scale Greenland and Labrador Seas “Ice and Salinity Anomalies (ISAs) “, and the overlying atmospheric circulation fluctuations is investigated using the singular value decomposition (SVD) and composite map analysis methods. The data analyzed are monthly SIC and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies, which cover the northern hemisphere poleward of 45°N and extend over the 41‐year period 1954–1994.

The SVD₁ (first) mode of the coupled variability, which accounts for 57% of the square covariance, is for the most part an atmosphere‐to‐ice forcing mode characterized by the decadal timescale. The aforementioned ISA anomalies are clearly captured by this mode whose SIC anomalies are dominated by a strong dipole across Greenland. However, as part of the same mode, there is also a weaker SIC dipole in the northern North Pacific which has opposite‐signed anomalies in the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea. It is also shown that there exists a significant negative correlation between the decadal SIC variability in the Greenland‐Barents Seas region associated with this mode and the North Atlantic Oscillation, whose spectrum also exhibits a quasi‐decadal signal.

The SVD₂ mode accounts for 12% of the square covariance and shows no evidence of a dominant forcing field of either SIC or SLP. This SVD mode exhibits very low frequency (interdecadal) variability, and its co‐variability is mainly concentrated in the northern North Pacific. It appears to be a high‐latitude extension of the recently investigated interdecadal North Pacific Oscillation. The spatial structure of the second mode complements the case of the first SVD mode whose co‐variability mainly occurs in the northern North Atlantic.     

Detection of the Labrador current using ice‐floe movement in synthetic aperture radar imagery and ice beacon trajectories

Abstract

Two sets of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images were collected, as part of the Labrador Ice Margin Experiment (LIMEX), over the Newfoundland Shelf on consecutive days in April 1990. Ice movement is detected from the displacement of ice floes between the two images sets and compared with ice drift data from six satellite‐tracked beacons and in situ CTD data. The ice velocity data derived from the SAR images and the beacons are used to generate a map of ice velocity vectors. A streamfunction map of ocean currents is produced by removing the direct wind‐driven component in the ice movement data, and by using an objective analysis method. The resulting flow pattern contains the offshore branch of the Labrador Current with a speed of 30 to 50 cm s^?1. The current closely follows the shelf break topography from north to south through the study area (47–50.5°N) as a continuous flow. In comparison, if the wind effect was not removed from the ice velocity data, the calculated Labrador Current north of 50°N would stray from the shelf break. The position of the current axis and the current speed derived from the ice movement data are in good agreement with the geostrophic current computed from the CTD data.     

An exceptional winter sea‐ice retreat/advance in the Bellingshausen sea,Antarctica

Abstract

The exceptional sea‐ice retreat and advance that occurred in the Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica during August 1993 was the largest such winter event in this sector of the Antarctic during the satellite era. The reasons for this fluctuation of ice are investigated using passive microwave satellite imagery, ice motion vectors derived from the satellite data, in‐situ meteorological reports and near‐surface winds and temperatures from the European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model. The ice edge retreat of more than 400 km took place near 80°W from approximately 1–15 August, although the southward migration of the ice edge was not continuous and short periods of advance were also recorded. Between 16 August and 2 September there was almost continuous sea‐ice recovery. The rate of change of the ice edge location during both the retreat and advance phases significantly exceeded the southward and northward velocity components of ice within the pack, pointing to the importance of ice production and melting during this event. During the month, markedly different air masses affected the area, resulting in temperature changes from +2°C to ‐21°C at the nearby Rothera station. ‘Bulk’ movement of the pack, and compaction and divergence of the sea ice, made a secondary, but still significant, contribution to the observed advance and retreat. The ice extent fluctuations were so extreme because strong meridional atmospheric flow was experienced in a sector of the Southern Ocean where relatively low ice concentrations were occurring. The very rapid ice retreat/advance was associated with pronounced low‐high surface pressure anomaly couplets on either side of the Antarctic Peninsula.     

Information-reference system “regime and variability of the ice cover state of the Far Eastern seas”

The information-reference system contains the aggregate data of long-term observations and generalized results of investigations on the ice coverage of the Bering Sea, the Sea of Okhotsk, and the Sea of Japan, represented in the form of tabular, graphic, and text materials. It consists of the information block, electronic atlas, observation data archive, and user software for the work in the Internet medium. The software of the electronic atlas provides the possibility of the access to the archive data and visualization of all accessible information on discrete maps of variable scales in the dynamic mode according to the user’s query. The system enables to provide the fast access to the specially selected, generalized information, dispersed in different sources and, therefore, limited for the wide use.     

Trends and variability of cloud fraction cover in the Arctic, 1982–2009

Climatology, trends and variability of cloud fraction cover (CFC) data over the Arctic (north of 70°N), were analysed over the 1982–2009 period. Data, available from the Climate Monitoring Satellite Application Facility (CM SAF), are derived from satellite measurements by AVHRR. Climatological means confirm permanent high CFC values over the Atlantic sector during all the year and during summer over the eastern Arctic Ocean. Lower values are found in the rest of the analysed area especially over Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago, nearly continuously during all the months. These results are confirmed by CFC trends and variability. Statistically significant trends were found during all the months over the Greenland Sea, particularly during the winter season (negative, less than ?5?%?dec ^?1) and over the Beaufort Sea in spring (positive, more than +5?%?dec ^?1). CFC variability, investigated by the Empirical Orthogonal Functions, shows a substantial “non-variability” in the Northern Atlantic Ocean. Statistically significant correlations between CFC principal components elements and both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index and Pacific North America patterns are found.     

The influence of Hudson Bay runoff and ice‐melt on the salinity of the inner Newfoundland Shelf

Abstract

The present study examines sources of the interannual variability in salinity on the Newfoundland continental shelf observed in a 40‐year time series from an oceanographic station known as Station 27. Specifically, we investigate, through lag‐correlation analysis, the a priori hypotheses that the salinity anomalies at Station 27 are determined by freshwater runoff anomalies from Hudson and Ungava bays and by ice‐melt anomalies in Hudson Bay and on the Labrador Shelf. Interannual variations of summer runoff into Hudson Bay were significantly negatively correlated with salinity anomalies on the Newfoundland Shelf with a lag (9 months) that is consistent with expected travel times based on known current velocities in Hudson Bay and along the Labrador Shelf. Sea‐ice extent over the Labrador and northern Newfoundland shelves was significantly negatively correlated with salinity at a lag of 3 to 4 months, corresponding to the time of minimum salinity at Station 27. It appears that ice‐melt over the Labrador‐northern Newfoundland Shelf is primarily responsible for the seasonal salinity minimum over the Newfoundland Shelf. Interannual variability in runoff into Ungava Bay and ice‐melt in Hudson Bay were not correlated with interannual salinity variations on the Newfoundland Shelf.     

Factors affecting fast‐ice consolidation in Southeastern Hudson Bay,Canada

Abstract

Analysis of satellite images of southeastern Hudson Bay taken over aperiod of 13 years led to the classification of ice distribution into three categories. The first category is for complete fast‐ice cover of the area, the second for fast ice covering only half the area and the third for the absence of fast ice extending away from the coast. Of the three factors considered‐ wind, water circulation and air temperature—the occurrence of strong southwesterly winds during the freezing period is probably the main factor regulating the extent of the fast‐ice cover for the first two categories. Through melting action, above‐freezing air temperatures appear to prevent the consolidation of ice into a solid cover giving rise to the rare third category of ice distribution.     

Change and variability in sea ice during the 2007–2008 Canadian International Polar Year program

In this paper we describe sea ice change and variability during the Canadian International Polar Year (IPY) program and examine several regional and hemispheric causes of this change. In a companion paper (Barber et al., Climate Change 2012) we present an overview of the consequences of this observed change and variability on ecosystem function, climatically relevant gas exchange, habitats of primary and apex predators, and impacts on northern peoples. Sea ice-themed research projects within the fourth IPY were designed to be among the most diverse international science programs. They greatly enhanced the exchange of Inuit knowledge and scientific ideas across nations and disciplines. This interdisciplinary and cultural exchange helped to explain and communicate the impacts of a transition of the Arctic Ocean and ecosystem to a seasonally ice-free state, the commensurate replacement of perennial with annual sea ice types and the causes and consequences of this globally significant metamorphosis. This paper presents a synthesis of scientific sea ice research and traditional knowledge results from Canadian-led IPY projects between 2007 and 2009. In particular, a summary of sea ice trends, basin-wide and regional, is presented in conjunction with Inuit knowledge of sea ice, gathered from communities in northern Canada. We focus on the recent observed changes in sea ice and discuss some of the causes of this change including atmospheric and oceanic forcing of both dynamic and thermodynamic forcing on the ice. Pertinent results include: 1) In the Amundsen Gulf, at the western end of the Northwest Passage, open water persists longer than normal and winter sea ice is thinner and more mobile. 2) Large areas of summer sea ice are becoming heavily decayed during summer and can be broken up by long-period waves being generated in the now extensive open water areas of the Chukchi Sea. 3) Cyclones play an important role in flaw leads??regions of open water between pack ice and land-fast ice. They delay the formation of new ice and the growth of multi-year ice. 4) Feedbacks involving the increased period of open water, long-period wave generation, increased open-ocean roughness, and the precipitation of autumn snow are all partially responsible for the observed reduction in multiyear sea ice. 5) The atmosphere is observed as remaining generally stable throughout the winter, preventing vertical entrainment of moisture above the surface.     

Simulation of sea ice and ocean variability in the arctic during 1955–2002 with an intermediate complexity model

Abstract

A number of recent sea‐ice and ocean changes in the Arctic and subarctic regions are simulated using the global University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System Climate Model version 2.6. This is an intermediate complexity model which includes a three‐dimensional ocean model (MOM 2.2), an energy‐moisture balance model for the atmosphere with heat and moisture transport, and a dynamic‐thermodynamic sea‐ice model with elastic‐viscous‐plastic rheology. The model is first spun up for 1800 years with monthly wind stress forcing derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology winds and a pre‐industrial atmospheric CO₂ concentration of 280 ppm. After a second spin‐up for the period 1800–1947 with daily climatology winds‐tress forcing, and a linearly increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration, the model is run with interannually varying wind stresses for the period 1948–2002 with an average forcing interval of 2.5 days and an exponentially increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration varying from 315 to 365 ppm. However, the analysis of the model output is only carried out for the years 1955–2002.

The simulated maximum and minimum sea‐ice areas for the Arctic are within 6% of the observed climatologies for the years 1978–2001. The model output also shows a small downward trend in sea‐ice extent, which, however, is smaller than has been observed during the past few decades. In addition, the model simulates a decrease in sea‐ice thickness in the SCICEX (SCientific ICe EXpeditions) measurement area in the central Arctic that is consistent with, but smaller than, that observed from submarine sonar profiling data.

The observed variability and magnitude of the export of sea ice through Fram Strait is quite well captured in the simulation. The change in correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the sea‐ice export around 1977 as found in a data study by Hilmer and Jung (2000) is also reproduced. Within the Arctic basin the model simulates well the patterns and the timing of the two major regimes of wind‐forced sea‐ice drift circulation (cyclonic and anticyclonic) as found earlier by Proshutinsky and Johnson (1997). The influence of variations in the Fram Strait ice export on the strength of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and surface air temperature are also determined. In particular, it is shown that 3–4 years after a large ice export, the maximum meridional overturning streamfunction decreases by more than 10%.

The temperature and salinity increase at depths of 200–300 m, as observed in the eastern Arctic by Morison et al. (1998), between the USS Pargo cruise in 1993 and the Environmental Working Group (EWG) Joint USRussian Arctic Atlas climatology for the years 1948–87, are just visible in the model simulation. The increases are more noticeable, however, when the ocean model data are averaged over the pentade 1995–2000 and compared with model data averaged over the pentade 1955–60. The fact that these, and some of the other modelled changes, are smaller than the observed changes can likely be attributed to the relatively coarse resolution of the UVic Earth System Climate Model (3.6°E‐W and 1.8°N‐S). Nevertheless, the fact that the model captures qualitatively many of the recent sea‐ice and ocean changes in the Arctic suggests that it can be successfully used to investigate other Arctic‐North Atlantic Ocean climate interactions during past and future eras.     

Energy balance of the intertidal zone of Western Hudson bay II: Ice‐dominated periods and seasonal patterns

Abstract

This study treats the energy balance during fast‐ice and floating‐ice conditions and examines overall seasonal patterns. The rate of ablation of the fast ice was controlled equally by net radiation and air temperature. The ratio of net/solar radiation increased 2.5 times during the ablation period owing to the decrease in ice albedo. Air temperature in the ablation zone was up to 8°C colder than that over the adjacent snow‐free terrestrial surface and remained near 0°Cfor the full ablation period. The sensible heat flux was small and downward (negative), whereas the evaporative heat flux was small and positive. Thus, the energy used in melting the ice was approximately equal to that provided by the net radiation. Above‐freezing air temperatures decreased the albedo through surface melting thus increasing net radiation. This combination of higher temperature and large net radiation was associated with offshore winds and resulted in large ablation relative to periods with colder onshore winds.

The floating‐ice period is one of great variability owing to changing ice conditions, variable current behaviour, tidal cycles and changing wind direction. The intertidal zone acts as a major heat sink, both early and late in the floating‐ice period. The turbulent heat fluxes were small and were either positive or negative. Nearly all of the energy from net radiation was used in melting ice and in warming tidal water during high tide and in warming the residual tidal ponds and in melting stranded ice rafts during low tide.

The overall study period, from May to September, included most of the season of positive radiation balance and above‐freezing temperatures. Winds were dominantly onshore in the first half of the period and equally onshore and offshore in the second half. Wind frequencies resembled longer term averages for other stations on James Bay and Hudson Bay. The ratio of net to solar radiation was at a maximum during the ice‐free period in August, whereas for adjacent terrestrial surfaces, it was largest at the summer solstice. Land‐sea breezes first developed in mid‐July and were influential in making offshore winds the dominant nocturnal regime. As a result, offshore winds were associated with small magnitudes of net radiation. Onshore winds were more than 5°C colder than those blowing offshore and their vapour pressure deficits were three times smaller. Convective heat fluxes were small for onshore winds and very small and usually negative for offshore winds. For all wind directions throughout the period, most of the available radiant energy was used to melt ice and to heat the sea water. This is a pattern similar to that of the ice‐covered or open sea and dissimilar to that of the adjacent terrestrial environment. It implies that the main energy‐balance transitions, during onshore airflow, occur at the high‐tide line.     

Energy balance of the intertidal zone of Western Hudson bay I: Ice‐free period

Abstract

This study reports on tower measurements from the intertidal zone taken during the ice‐free period between August 1 and September 20, 1985. Sea and air temperatures showed ranges of 8 and 14°C, respectively, and both were colder during onshore than during offshore winds. Onshore winds were associated with a nearly saturated atmosphere whereas offshore ones were quite dry. Surface albedo was twice as great for low tide as for high tide. The ratio net/solar radiation was 13% less at low tide owing to both the larger albedo and the stronger long‐wave radiation loss. Heat fluxes into the bottom sediments were small with net gains in August and net losses in September. During the day, heat storage in the water was large and positive. This occurred even with the tide out, when the ponded water continued to warm. At night the water gave up heat, both for low and high tide, and especially late in the season. The latent heat flux was always positive and was largest by day during low tide and by night during high tide. The sensible heat flux was positive for onshore winds and often negative for offshore winds. Under all wind directions heat storage constituted 60% of net radiation, the latent heat flux 35% and the remainder was proportioned equally between the sensible heat flux and the flux into the bottom sediments.     

Fusion of dual‐frequency SAR imagery of sea ice

Abstract

A new method is presented for the classification of sea ice using multi‐parametric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery. The local textural information, which is in essence a weighted gradient at a point, is computed in two SAR images of similar polarization but differing radar wavelength. The local information from the two images is combined at every pixel using a suggested rule for the addition of an entropy‐like measure. The resulting summation is shown to have the same negative exponential probability distribution found for the information from each separate image, confirming that the combined measure has the properties of information also. It is shown that the resulting joint information categories support a segmentation very similar to one based on consideration of the full complex scattering matrix for three wavelengths.     

Role of sea surface temperature,Arctic sea ice and Siberian snow in forcing the atmospheric circulation in winter of 2012–2013

Climate Dynamics - During the 2012–2013 winter, the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) predominated, resulting in a cold winter over Europe and northern Asia punctuated by...     

Comparison and fusion of co‐occurrence,Gabor and MRF texture features for classification of SAR sea‐ice imagery

Abstract

Image texture interpretation is an important aspect of the computer‐assisted discrimination of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sea‐ice imagery. Co‐occurrence probabilities are the most common approach used to solve this problem. However, other texture feature extraction methods exist that have not been fully studied for their ability to interpret SAR sea‐ice imagery. Gabor filters and Markov random fields (MRF) are two such methods considered here. Classification and significance level testing shows that co‐occurrence probabilities classify the data with the highest accuracy, with Gaborfilters a close second. MRF results significantly lag Gabor and co‐occurrence results. However, the MRF features are uncorrelated with respect to co‐occurrence and Gabor features. The fused co‐occurrence/MRF feature set achieves higher performance. In addition, it is demonstrated that uniform quantization is a preferred quantization method compared to histogram equalization.     

Interannual and decadal variability of the subsurface thermal structure in the Pacific Ocean: 1961–90

Heat content anomalies are analyzed to understand subsurface variability on both aparticular focus on the evolving basinwide patterns and oceanic connections between the extratropics and tropics. Various analyses indicate two distinct modes, one interannual and the other decadal, that involve the tropics and the North Pacific subtropical gyre, respectively. Interannual variability is associated with El Niño in the tropics, with a prominent “see-saw” pattern alternately on and off the equator, and in the east and west, respectively. The interannual cycle features a coherent propagation of subsurface signals around the tropical Pacific, eastward along the equator but westward off the equator at 10–15?°N. Decadal signals are dominant in the subtropics and midlatitudes but also have a tropical component that appears to be independent of interannual variations. An oceanic connection can be seen between subsurface anomalies in the midlatitudes, in the subtropics and tropics on decadal time scales. Subsurface thermal anomalies associated with midlatitude decadal variability can propagate through the subtropics into the tropics, which may modulate the intensity of interannual variability in the tropics. For example, in the middle and late 1970s, a significant warm temperature anomaly appeared to penetrate into the western and central tropics at depth, warming the tropical upper ocean and depressing the thermocline. During the development of El Niño, therefore, an extratropically preconditioned subsurface state (e.g., an enhanced positive heat content anomaly) in the western and central tropical Pacific would favor a warmer sea surface temperature anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific, potentially increasing the intensity of ocean-atmosphere coupling. These changes in the thermocline structure and possibly in the coupling strength can further alter the very character of tropical air-sea interactions. This may help to explain decadal variability of El Niño evolution in the tropical Pacific as observed in the 1980s. Our subsurface variability analysis presents observational evidence for the detailed space-time structure of decadal oceanic links between the extratropics and the tropics.     

Sea‐ice interaction and the stability of the thermohaline circulation

Abstract

The role of sea‐ice in affecting the stability and long‐term variability of the oceanic thermohaline circulation (THC) is studied in this paper. The emphasis is placed on studying how sea‐ice might affect the stability and the long‐term variability of the THC through modulations of the surface heat and freshwater fluxes. A simple box model is analyzed to elucidate qualitatively the distinct physical meanings of these two processes. The analytical solution of this simple model indicates that, for the long timescales considered here, the thermal insulation stabilizes the THC while the freshwater feedback increases the effective inertia of the coupled ice‐ocean system. Sea‐ice insulation lessens the negative feedback between heat flux and the SST, and therefore, allows the SST to play a greater role in counteracting changes of the THC and high latitude salinity field. The freshwater feedback effectively links the surface heat flux to a freshwater reservoir, and thus, increases the effective inertia of the coupled ocean‐ice system. A two‐dimensional ocean model coupled with a thermodynamic sea‐ice model is used to estimate quantitatively the magnitudes of these two feedbacks. The numerical experiments involve the model's responses both to initial anomalies and to changes of forcing fields. For the free response cases (model responses to initial anomalies without changing the forcing fields), the model shows that the decay rate of an initial anomaly is greater when sea‐ice is included. For small perturbations the thermal insulation effect dominates over the freshwater feedback. The latter becomes increasingly more important for larger perturbations. In response to a change of external forcing, the presence of sea‐ice reduces the magnitude and the pace of the model's response. The numerical results are qualitatively consistent with the analytical solution of the box model.     

On the relationship between arctic sea‐ice anomalies and fluctuations in Northern Canadian air temperature and river discharge

Abstract

A lagged cross‐correlation analysis of climatic data from the period 1953–1984 was carried out for three regions of Northern Canada (Beaufort Sea, Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay/Labrador Sea) to determine the relationships between sea‐ice anomalies and surface air temperature and river discharge anomalies. Significant negative correlations at the 95% level were found between sea‐ice and temperature anomalies. A significant correlation at the 95% level was found between sea‐ice and river discharge anomalies in only one of two subregions studied.     

Multi‐year sea‐ice conditions in the western Canadian arctic archipelago region of the northwest passage: 1968–2006

Abstract

Numerous studies have reported decreases in Arctic sea‐ice cover over the past several decades and General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations continue to predict future decreases. These decreases — particularly in thick perennial or multi‐year ice (MYI) — have led to considerable speculation about a more accessible Northwest Passage (NWP) as a transit route through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). The Canadian Ice Service Digital Archive (CISDA) is used to investigate dynamic import/export and in situ growth of MYI within the western CAA regions of the NWP from 1968 to 2006. This analysis finds that MYI conditions in the western CAA regions of the NWP have remained relatively stable because the M'Clintock Channel and Franklin regions continuously operate as a drain‐trap mechanism for MYI. Results also show that in addition to the Queen Elizabeth Islands (QEI) region, the Western Parry Channel and the M'Clintock Channel are also regions where a considerable amount of MYI forms in situ and combined with dynamic imports contributes to heavy MYI conditions. There is also evidence to suggest that more frequent dynamic import of MYI appears to have occurred since‐1999 compared to the formation of more MYI in situ before 1999. As a result, the drain‐trap mechanism that has historically maintained heavy MYI conditions in the NWP is perhaps operating faster now than it was in the past. Based on the 38‐year MYI record examined in this study, it is likely that the mechanisms operating within the western CAA regions of the NWP can facilitate the continued presence of MYI for quite some time.     

Consequences of change and variability in sea ice on marine ecosystem and biogeochemical processes during the 2007–2008 Canadian International Polar Year program

Change and variability in the timing and magnitude of sea ice geophysical and thermodynamic state have consequences on many aspects of the arctic marine system. The changes in both the geophysical and thermodynamic state, and in particular the timing of the development of these states, have consequences throughout the marine system. In this paper we review the ??consequences?? of change in sea ice state on primary productivity, marine mammal habitats, and sea ice as a medium for storage and transport of contaminants and carbon exchange across the ocean-sea-ice-atmosphere interface based upon results from the International Polar Year. Pertinent results include: 1) conditions along ice edges can bring deep nutrient-rich ??pacific?? waters into nutrient-poor surface waters along the arctic coast, affecting local food webs; 2) both sea ice thermodynamic and dynamic processes ultimately affect ringed seal/polar bear habitats by controlling the timing, location and amount of surface deformation required for ringed seal and polar bear preferred habitat 3) the ice edges bordering open waters of flaw leads are areas of high biological production and are observed to be important beluga habitat. 4) exchange of climate-active gases, including CO₂, is extremely active in sea ice environments, and the overall question of whether the Arctic Ocean is (or will be) a source or sink for CO₂ will be dependent on the balance of competing climate-change feedbacks.