The oil spill behaviour model of the canadian atmospheric environment service. Part II: Evaluation of model guidance for emergency response

Abstract

In a companion paper the theoretical basis for the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service oil spill behaviour model was discussed along with its evaluation, in non‐real time, using data collected from field experiments and a real spill. This paper deals with the use of the model in real time to provide guidance in support of the emergency created by an oil spill in the Canadian Beaufort Sea. The spill of about 2440 barrels of diesel oil occurred in September 1985, the result of storm damage to an artificial island used for hydrocarbon exploration.

Model simulations were carried out for two time periods while the spill was being tracked. These simulations identified the marked shifts in the direction of movement of the spill. While the predictive skills for the two time periods varied, with re‐initialization the final observed slick location was predicted to within 2 km. This model prediction was used by the regulatory authorities as guidance information in locating the slick when it could not be easily spotted from the air. The prediction of the size of the slick 27 h after initial time was in very good agreement with observations. A qualitative evaluation of the model‐simulated weathering of the oil was also carried out.     

Surface currents in British Columbia coastal waters: Comparison of observations and model predictions

Abstract

Observations of the motion of ocean surface drifters are used to evaluate numerical simulations of surface currents in the region of Queen Charlotte Sound on the West Coast of Canada. More than 30 surface Argos drifters were deployed in the spring and summer of 1995, revealing daily average currents of 10 to 40 cm s^–1 near the coast of Vancouver Island in summer, and less than 10 cm s^–1 in mid‐sound. Wind observations in this region are provided by a network of weather buoys. Comparison of daily average drifter velocities and winds shows that the drifters moved at 2 to 3% of the wind speed, and at about 30 degrees to the right of the wind.

A complex transfer function is computed between daily wind and drifter vectors using least squares techniques. The ratio of variance in the least squares residual currents to the variance of observed drifter currents is denoted γ². A percent goodness‐of‐fit is defined as g(γ²) = 100(1 – γ²), and is 42% for the case of daily winds and drifter currents. Drifter‐measured currents are compared with two numerical simulations of surface currents: Fundy5, a steadystate baroclinic model based on historical water property measurements in summer, and the Princeton Ocean Model (POM), a prognostic, baroclinic model forced by the measured winds. Fundy5 by itself provides a goodness‐of‐fit of only 3%, whereas POM has g(γ²) = 42%. The combination of Fundy5 plus daily wind gives g(γ²) = 43%. Although the prognostic model performs only as well as the winds by themselves, it simulates the near shore currents more accurately and reproduces the speeds and veering in the surface Ekman layer on average without bias. Residual currents unexplained by POM are likely due to advection of water masses into this region and horizontal inhomogeneities in the density field that are not input to the model, as well as to Stokes drift of wind waves and to net Lagrangian tidal motion not represented by the model.     

The Rose Spit Eddy in Dixon Entrance: Evidence for its existence and underlying dynamics

Abstract

The existence and dynamics of the so‐called “Rose Spit Eddy” in Dixon Entrance, British Columbia, are investigated by (i) analysing published observations of low‐frequency Eulerian and Lagrangian currents in the region; (ii) interpreting tidal residuals produced by the Hecate Model (a non‐rotating hydraulic model of Hecate Strait and Dixon Entrance); and (iii) running a barotropic, non‐linear numerical tidal model over simplified topography to investigate residuals produced over the Rose Spit sill.

Observations have consistently revealed persistent basin‐wide, surface‐intensified cyclonic shears within central and eastern Dixon Entrance. The Hecate hydraulic tidal model also produced a tidal residual cyclonic gyre in central Dixon Entrance, but with velocities considerably larger than those observed. Barotropic numerical simulations of tidal streams flowing over a representation of the Rose Spit sill produced residual flows along the sill in reasonable agreement with observations and theory. A southward‐directed jet flow was produced off Cape Chacon. Elsewhere, tidal rectification was weak. Run without the Coriolis force, organized flow along the sill broke down, although the headland jet off Cape Chacon persisted.

We submit that the observed Rose Spit eddy results from interactions between buoyancy‐driven coastal currents and tidally rectified flows generated over the Rose Spit sill, and near Cape Chacon, and perhaps indirectly, over the western flank of Learmonth Bank (which although west of the Rose Spit eddy, contributes to the cross‐channel flow across the Entrance). These regions of localized tidal stress will each favour recirculation of a portion of the coastal current within the Entrance, helping to form the eddy.

We believe that the Hecate hydraulic model eddy was generated to a significant degree by phase errors introduced at the northern open boundary, where a rocking barrier was used to force currents. A second rocking barrier also produced a large cyclonic gyre, not supported by observations, near the model's southern boundary.     

The impact of different vertical diffusion schemes in a three-dimensional oil spill model in the Bohai Sea

Vertical transport is critical to the movement of oil spills in seawater. Breaking waves play an important role by developing a well-defined mixing layer in the upper part of the water column. A three-dimensional （3-D） Lagrangian random walk oil spill model was used here to study the influence of sea surface waves on the vertical turbulence movement of oil particles. Three vertical diffusion schemes were utilized in the model to compare their impact on oil dispersion and transportation. The first scheme calculated the vertical eddy viscosity semi-empirically. In the second scheme, the vertical diffusion coefficient was obtained directly from an Eulerian hydrodynamic model （Princeton Ocean Model, POM2k） while considering wave- caused turbulence. The third scheme was formulated by solving the Langevin equation. The trajectories, percentages of oil particles intruding into water, and the vertical distribution structures of oil particles were analyzed for a series of numerical experiments with different wind magnitudes. The results showed that the different vertical diffusion schemes could generate different horizontal trajectories and spatial distributions of oil spills on the sea surface. The vertical diffusion schemes caused different water-intruding and resurfacing oil particle behaviors, leading to different horizontal transport of oil particles at the surface and subsurface of the ocean. The vertical diffusion schemes were also applied to a realistic oil spill simulation, and these results were compared to satellite observations. All three schemes yielded acceptable results, and those of the third scheme most closely simulated the observed data.     

A tidal model of the northeast pacific

Abstract

The development of a tidal model for the west coast of Canada is described. The model is intermediate in resolution between coarse‐gridded global models and fine‐gridded local models; it provides a good representation of the main shelf regions and also includes a substantial area of the neighbouring ocean. The physical processes relevant to tides in both deep and shallow water are included. Calculations have been carried out for the M₂ and K₁ constituents and the model results were compared with extensive tide‐gauge observations and empirically based charts. For M₂, the agreement between model results and observations is generally excellent, but for K₁, which contains more small‐scale variability, the model results are not quite so good. The variability in K₁ is associated with tidally generated continental shelf waves. Examination of the computed currents and energy fluxes suggests that shelf‐wave components are present in the model solution but, for the Vancouver Island shelf, their propagation is not reproduced accurately. This may be due to deficiencies in the model and/or to the influences of stratification and mean currents, which are neglected here. The model predicts that shelf‐wave components should also occur in diurnal tides on the Alaskan shelf.

The significance of the tide‐generating potential and advection are also examined and further work proposed.     

Skew eddy fluxes as signatures of non‐linear tidal current interactions,with application to Georges Bank

Abstract

The eddy flux of a conservative scalar in a time‐dependent rotary velocity field may have a component that is normal to the scalar gradient. This component is the “skew flux”, which consists of the scalar transport by the Stokes velocity and a part that is always non‐divergent (and hence does not affect scalar evolution). Since tidal velocity fields usually have rotary features, tidal‐band eddy scalar fluxes may include a skew component that can be useful in indicating the occurrence of non‐linear current interactions.

The skew temperature flux associated with the semidiurnal tide in a continental shelf region is demonstrated using simple models, and moored current and temperature observations from Georges Bank. The observed fluxes on the Bank are largely directed along isobaths, with apparent contributions from the topographic rectification of the barotropic tidal current over the Bank's side and from the rotary tidal ellipses in a frontal region. Simple models indicate that the weaker cross‐isobath fluxes can arise through the influence of frictionally induced vertical structure on topographic tidal rectification, a baroclinic tidal current interaction, or the interaction of baroclinic and barotropic tidal currents. In some cases, the simple models show qualitative agreement with the observed fluxes and currents but, in general, more realistic models and better estimates of the background mean temperature field are required to obtain quantitative estimates of the relative importance of these interactions and other processes. Nevertheless, the observations and models suggest that non‐linear interactions involving both barotropic and baroclinic tidal currents are occurring on Georges Bank.     

Modelling stratification and baroclinic flow in the estuarine transition zone of the St. Lawrence estuary

Abstract

This paper presents a hydrodynamic study of the St. Lawrence Estuary's estuarine transition zone, a 100 km region where fresh water from the river mixes with salt water from the estuary. The circulation of the estuarine transition zone is driven by strong tides, a large river flow, and well‐defined salinity gradients. For this study, a three‐dimensional hydrodynamic model was applied to the estuarine transition zone of the St. Lawrence Estuary and used to examine stratification and density‐driven baroclinic flow. The model was calibrated to field observations and subsequently predicted water level elevations, along‐channel currents, and salinity with mean errors of less than 9%, 11%, and 17%, respectively. The baroclinic density‐driven currents were distinguished from the tidal barotropic currents by using principal component analysis. Stratification and baroclinic flow were observed to vary throughout the estuarine transition zone on tidal and subtidal spring‐neap time scales. On a semidiurnal tidal time scale, stratification was periodic, and baroclinic flow was represented by pulses of sheared exchange flow, suggesting that neither buoyancy forcing nor turbulent mixing is dominant at this scale. On a subtidal spring‐neap time scale, stratification and baroclinic flow varied inversely with tidal energy, increasing on weak neap tides and decreasing on strong spring tides.     

On the role of the unresolved eddies in a model of the residual currents in the central strait of Georgia,B.C.: Research Note

Abstract

A depth‐independent numerical model of the Juan de Fuca/Strait of Georgia system reproduces the broad structure of the observed depth‐averaged residual circulation in the Central Strait of Georgia but underestimates its magnitude (Marinone and Fyfe, 1992). Here we present some new calculations based on a re‐parameterization of the unresolved eddies in terms of “statistical dynamical tendencies” instead of the previous eddy‐viscosity treatment. With the new parameterization, the simulated time‐mean flow is closer to the observed circulation both in structure and magnitude. While not specifically designed to do so, the new parameterization also leads to a modest improvement in the low‐pass filtered component of the flow. Based on these results, the depth‐averaged residual currents in the region are conjectured to involve a four‐way balance between the hitherto ignored effect of “statistical dynamical tendencies” and conventional tidal, atmospheric and buoyancy forcing.     

Winter‐time near‐surface currents in the strait of Juan de Fuca

Abstract

During November 1976 to February 1977 near‐surface wind, current and temperature measurements were made at three sites along the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Strong tidal currents and major intrusions of warmer, fresher offshore coastal water were superimposed upon the estuarine circulation of near‐surface seaward flow. The r.m.s. amplitudes of the diurnal and semidiurnal tidal currents were ～30 cms^‐1 and 30–47 cm s^‐1, respectively. The vector‐mean flow at 4 m‐depth was seaward and decreased in speed from 28 cm s^‐1 at 74 km from the entrance to 9 cm s^‐1 at 11 km from the entrance. On five occasions intrusions of 1–3 C warmer northeast Pacific coastal water occurred for durations of 1–10 days. The 25 cm s^‐1 up‐strait speed of the intrusive lens agreed to within 20% of the gravity current speed computed from Benjamin's (1968) hydraulic model. The near‐surface currents associated with the intrusions and the southerly coastal winds were significantly correlated, indicating that the intrusions were initiated when shoreward Ekman currents advected Pacific coastal water into the Strait. The reversals were not significantly coherent with the along‐strait sea surface slope measured along the north side of the Strait nor were they strongly related to local wind forcing.     

Variability of temperature,salinity and tidally‐averaged density in the middle estuary of the St Lawrence

Abstract

Surveys in the Middle Estuary of the St Lawrence have yielded a data base consisting of more than 15,000 T‐S pairs distributed over 62 13‐h profiling stations. Although the T‐S curves at each station are remarkably linear, the variability of the slopes and intercepts of the lines is considerable. The means and standard deviations of the temperature and salinity at each individual station are not explicable in terms of linear combinations of the parameters for location in the Estuary, the upstream water properties, the phase of the spring‐neap cycle and the tidal energies.

It is shown that the tidally‐averaged density structure is separable into horizontal and vertical components and that its vertical variation over the whole Estuary may be explained by any one of three different functional forms. However, its horizontal variation is not explicable in terms of linear combinations of the parameters mentioned in the paragraph above.

Plots of the horizontal variations in temperature, salinity or density may only be meaningful if the data are collected synoptically, and even then cannot be considered to be accurate over time‐scales longer than one tidal cycle.     

Summer circulation of the waters in Queen Charlotte sound

Abstract

An extensive set of measurements of currents, winds, subsurface pressures and water properties was undertaken in the summer of 1982 in Queen Charlotte Sound on the west coast of Canada. At most observation sites the summer‐averaged currents are found to be about 10 cm s^?1, smaller than the tidal currents but comparable to the standard deviation of the non‐tidal currents. The strongest average flow was the outflow of surface water past Cape St James at the northwestern corner of the Sound. During strong winds from the north or northwest a strong outflow of near‐surface fresher water was also observed over Cook Bank in the south. Eddies dominate the motion in the interior of the Sound, as shown by the behaviour of a near‐surface drifter that remained in mid‐Sound for 40 days before a storm pushed it into Hecate Strait. The disorganized, weak currents in the central Sound will likely allow surface waters or floating material to remain there for periods of several weeks in summer.

Empirical orthogonal function analyses of fluctuating currents, subsurface pressures and winds reveal that a single mode explains most of the wind and pressure variance but not the current variance. The first two pressure modes represent two distinct physical processes. The first mode is a nearly uniform, up‐and‐down pumping of the surface, while the second mode tilts across the basin from east to west, likely due to geostrophic adjustment of wind‐driven currents. This mode also tilts from south to north, owing to along‐strait wind stress. Most contributions to the first mode currents come from meters near shore or the edge of a trough. Coherence is high between these second mode pressures and first mode currents and winds, and lower but still significant between first mode pressures and first mode currents and winds. It is therefore difficult to predict the behaviour of currents in Queen Charlotte Sound in summer from pressure measurements at a single site, but the difference in sea‐level across Hecate Strait is a more reliable indicator.     

On the influence of stratospheric conditions on forced tropospheric waves in a steady‐state primitive equation model

Abstract

The structure of a forced planetary wave is computed by means of a linearized steady‐state primitive equation model on a hemisphere. The vertical velocity in pressure coordinates is specified at the lower boundary to simulate orographie forcing. The vertical finite differences are on equally spaced pressure levels with a moderately high vertical resolution. The upper boundary condition dp/dt = 0 is applied at p =0 in the model. Numerical experiments show that the tropospheric structure of forced planetary waves is sensitive to the stratospheric background conditions in the model.     

The circulation and hydrography of conception bay,Newfoundland

Abstract

The hydrography and circulation of Conception Bay (Newfoundland) are described based on hydrographic, current‐meter and drifter data collected over four years (1988–1991). The seasonal cycles of temperature (‐1.6 to 13–17°C) and salinity (31–32.5) in the bay closely follow those on the adjacent shelf. Exchange of bottom water was observed in April 1989. Deepwater exchange was observed from late fall to early winter of 1989–90. Tidal currents are weak, 1–2 cm s^‐1 for the M₂ and K₁ constituents. Observed Eulerian mean currents (<3 cm s^‐1) are smaller than the standard deviation (1–11 cm s^‐1); however, there is a persistent outflowing current of 10 to 20 cm s^‐1 within 2 km of the shoreline on the eastern side of the outer bay. The Lagrangian correlation length scale is from 4 to 10 km, in agreement with the weak coherence squared (≤0.4) found between the fixed current‐meter sites separated by greater than 4–5 km. The variable currents (up to 20 cm s^‐1) tend to be cyclonic. Cyclonic eddies were observed near the mouth on the eastern side of the bay, adjacent to the outflow. A simplified fractal dispersion model gives residence times of 42 d similar to those obtained from a scaling analysis (30–40 d) and a diagnostic numerical model (30 d).     

Retrieval of the microphysical properties in a CASP storm by integration of a numerical kinematic model

Abstract

A realistic kinematic model of cloud microphysical processes is presented. Heat and water substances in various phases are transported in the model by specific horizontal and vertical velocities using a semi‐Lagrangian numerical transport scheme. The model is applied to a CASP case study with horizontal and vertical velocities consistent with radiosondes and radar observations. The model is shown to capture the general observed features of the cloud and precipitation fields. In particular, it is shown that for the case studied stratiform clouds extend much higher than the top of detectable precipitation. This numerical model constitutes a useful tool for understanding the life cycle of hydrometeors as a function of their position within the storm system.     

Oceanographic observations on the Scotian Shelf during CASP

Abstract

Winter‐time (1985–86) observations of sea‐level, surface waves, currents, bottom pressure, and water properties were made on the Scotian Shelf as part of the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP). The purpose of the field program and the locations, instrument systems, and sampling schemes are described.

Statistics on the observed currents are presented, and monthly estimates of the longshore transport of the Nova Scotian Current are given for four months spanning the winter season (December to March). The 1985–86 transports are compared with previous estimates of the baroclinic transport made using the dynamic method.

Cross‐shelf temperature and salinity distributions corresponding to the beginning and end of the field program are described and compared with the climatological means.

The autospectra of the observed currents exhibit energy concentrations at frequencies of 0.2–0.5, 1.0, 1.4 and 2.0 cycles per day (cpd). Coastal‐trapped wave motions account for significant portions of the energy in the two lowest frequency bands, forced by wind stress and the diurnal tide, respectively. Inertial oscillations generated by wind stress events predominate at 1.4 cpd, and the semidiurnal tide, at 2 cpd. These motions are described separately, and references to more detailed discussions are given.     

Simulations of the 14 July 1987 squall line using a fully compressible model

Abstract

Numerical simulations of the severe squall line of 14 July 1987 are discussed within the context of semi‐Lagrangian and semi‐implicit integrations. The fully compressible non‐hydrostatic Euler set of equations constitutes the basic dynamical framework of the numerical model. With elementary precipitation physics and with a generalized treatment of lateral boundary conditions, nested integrations simulate the observed structure of the squall line. The numerical solution and observations show a well organized precipitation system including a mesoscale fast‐propagating prefrontal squall line and a slow‐propagating system moving with the synoptic wave. The prefrontal squall line is seen to be a manifestation of the organization of an inertia‐gravity wave and has characteristics of a wave‐CISK mechanism. Owing to the interaction between the upper jet stream dynamics and moisture, the prefrontal perturbation is initiated locally and subsequently irradiates away from its point source. The high computational efficiency and the accuracy of the model emphasize its potential and demonstrate its value as an interesting tool for mesoscale modelling.     

On the average errors of an ensemble of forecasts 1

Abstract

The average error fields of an ensemble of 10‐day forecasts made with a global model at the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, and first presented by Hollingsworth et al. (1980), are examined. The time evolution of the error fields is presented together with horizontal and vertical cross‐sections through the fields at fixed times to reveal some features of their three‐dimensional structure. The most striking deficiency of the model is seen to be its inability to maintain the amplitude of the quasi‐stationary zonal wavenumber 2 in the middle and upper troposphere.     

Optimal estimation of Eddy viscosity and friction coefficients for a Quasi‐three‐dimensional numerical tidal model

Abstract

It is shown that the parameters in a quasi‐three‐dimensional numerical tidal model can be estimated accurately by assimilation of data from current meters and tide gauges. The tidal model considered is a semi‐linearized one in which advective nonlinearities are neglected but nonlinear bottom friction is included. The parameters estimated are the eddy viscosity, bottom friction coefficient, water depth and wind drag coefficient, the first three of which are allowed to be position‐dependent. The adjoint method is used to construct the gradient of a cost function defined as a certain norm of the difference between computed and observed current and surface elevations. On the basis of a number of tests, it is shown that very effective estimation of the nodal values of the parameters can be achieved using the current data either alone or in combination with elevation data. When random errors are introduced into the data, the estimated parameters are quite sensitive to the magnitude of the errors, and in particular the eddy viscosity is unstably sensitive. The sensitivity of the viscosity can be stabilized by incorporating an appropriate penalty term in the cost function or alternatively by reducing the number of estimated viscosity values via a finite element approximation. Once stabilized, the sensitivity of the estimates to data errors is significantly reduced by assimilating a longer data record.     

A diagnostic study of the southern hemisphere summer circulation of the CCC general circulation model

Abstract

The medium‐scale wave regime, consisting largely of zonal wavenumbers 5–7, frequently dominates the summer Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation. We perform a diagnostic study of this circulation as simulated by the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) general circulation model (GCM). The analysis of Hövmöller diagrams, space‐time and zonal wavenumber spectra shows that the CCC GCM is able to simulate the observed medium‐scale wave regime.

The zonally averaged meridional eddy heat and momentum transports and the associated baroclinic and barotropic energy conversions are also examined. The distributions of the transports on the vertical plane agree well with the observations. After comparison with the observed December‐January‐February 1979 distributions, some quantitative differences remain: the heat transport is too weak aloft and too large near the surface, whereas the momentum transport tends to be too weak. The baroclinic and barotropic conversions show a maximum in the medium‐scale waves. The time evolution of the Richardson number of the mean flow suggests that the medium‐scale wave is due to a baroclinic instability.     

Tidal mixing versus thermal stratification in the Bay of Fundy and gulf of Maine

Abstract

A simple energetic argument (Simpson and Hunter, 1974) shows that the boundary between well‐mixed and stratified areas of a shallow sea in summer should correspond to a critical value of BH/U³ , where B is the buoyancy JEUX due to solar heating, H the mean water depth and U the amplitude of the tidal current. We demonstrate the importance of this parameter in a simple model of vertical mixing, and discuss the role of many other factors affecting stratification. Examination of hydrographic data from the Bay of Fundy and Gulf of Maine, together with estimates of tidal dissipation (proportional to U ³) from Greenberg's (1978) numerical model, shows a transition from well‐mixed to stratified conditions, in July and August, for H/U³ = 70 m^‐2s³. This corresponds to a mixing efficiency of only 0.26%. Predictions are made of the changes in extent of well‐mixed areas that would be caused by tidal power development. Some stratification, due to both solar heating and freshwater input, is possible in previously mixed areas which would be the headponds for two schemes. Outside the barriers the changes are less dramatic, although the merging of mixed areas over Georges Bank and Nantucket Shoals is predicted.