A comparison of a GCM simulation of the seasonal cycle of the atmosphere with observations part I: Mean fields and the annual harmonic

Abstract

The seasonal cycle of the GLAS/U of Maryland GCM is analysed in terms of the behaviour of the monthly and seasonal mean fields and the structure of the annual harmonic. (The stationary and transient eddies are treated in a companion paper.)

Both polar regions at upper levels are much too cold in the annual mean, leading to excessive zonal winds above 200 mb. The problem is present in all seasons, but is most severe in local winter. A compensating belt of warm temperatures at lower latitudes is found. It is argued that the inclusion of gravity wave drag is not necessarily the solution to this problem.

The simulated annual harmonics of Northern Hemisphere sea‐level pressure and 200‐mb heights are realistically intense over the eastern continents and weak over the eastern oceans. Problems in the simulation include the anomalously deep Aleutian low and the low values of the height over Europe, both occurring in winter.

The simulation of the annual harmonic in sea‐level pressure and 200‐mb heights in the Southern Hemisphere is realistic. The GCM fails to show the observed amplitude of the annual harmonic in 200‐mb temperature over Antarctica.

The GCM precipitation is too intense over land, particularly in summer. It is suggested that the problem is related to the parametrizations of moist convection and the boundary layer. The seasonal patterns of precipitation over the western tropical Pacific are generally realistic.

There is no evidence that the GCM systematically underestimates momentum flux convergence.     

The impact of doubled CO2 on the energetics and hydrologic processes of mid-latitude transient eddies

The Northern Hemisphere winter (DJF) stationary eddy response of a general circulation model (GCM) to a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ is simulated with a linear steady state model as a response to anomalies in diabatic heating (latent, sensible and radiative), mountain and transient eddy effects. For this analysis the doubled CO₂ experiment performed by Wilson and Mitchell (1987) is used. The linear simulations of the control and perturbation climate capture most of the important features of the GCMs stationary eddies. The simulation of the anomalous stationary eddy pattern in the Northern Hemisphere captures only some of the important features of the GCMs anomalies. The climate anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere are poorly simulated. In the Northern Hemisphere the climate anomalies are dominated by the effect of transient eddies and mountains. In low latitudes also the contribution of latent heating is important. The contributions of sensible and radiative heating are small.     

On the climatology of persistent circulation anomalies in the atmosphere and in a general circulation model

Abstract

The climatologies of upper‐air persistent circulation anomalies found in observations of the Northern Hemisphere and in a General Circulation Model (GCM) integration are compared with each other and with those found in previous studies. The model simulation is that of the Canadian Climate Centre GCM run at resolution T20. The objective criteria that define the persistent events differ from those of some earlier investigations in that the anomalies are not required to be as nearly stationary. It is found that the GCM generates persistent circulation anomalies downstream of the synoptic‐scale storm tracks, in very nearly the correct geographical locations, but that the frequency of occurrence is too low in the model. A kinetic energy and streamfunction variance analysis is presented for both dataseis to clarify the differences between the observed and simulated distributions of circulation anomalies. It is evident that, apart from the mean annual cycle, the middle‐latitude transient eddies of the model are too weak.     

Aspects of wave behaviour in the mid‐ and upper troposphere of the southern Hemisphere

Abstract

The zonal wavenumber spectra of the geopotential heights of the 300‐ and 500‐mb surfaces in the Southern Hemisphere were determined for each month between May 1972 and November 1979 using daily operational analyses produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. During over one‐quarter of the “summer” months (November through March) there are very prominent peaks at zonal wavenumber five in the region of the mid‐latitude jet (～35–60°S). Frequently wavenumber five totally dominates the eddy fields in individual daily maps so that height contours in mid‐latitudes take on virtually pentagonal shapes. During periods when wavenumber 5 is prominent, it is observed to propagate eastward in a very regular manner with a period of about eleven days. All these findings are consistent with Salby's (1982) earlier results concerning the Southern Hemisphere height fields during the first few months of the FGGE experiment.

There is little evidence for a similar phenomenon in the winter circulation of the Southern Hemisphere.     

A diagnostic study of the southern hemisphere summer circulation of the CCC general circulation model

Abstract

The medium‐scale wave regime, consisting largely of zonal wavenumbers 5–7, frequently dominates the summer Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation. We perform a diagnostic study of this circulation as simulated by the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) general circulation model (GCM). The analysis of Hövmöller diagrams, space‐time and zonal wavenumber spectra shows that the CCC GCM is able to simulate the observed medium‐scale wave regime.

The zonally averaged meridional eddy heat and momentum transports and the associated baroclinic and barotropic energy conversions are also examined. The distributions of the transports on the vertical plane agree well with the observations. After comparison with the observed December‐January‐February 1979 distributions, some quantitative differences remain: the heat transport is too weak aloft and too large near the surface, whereas the momentum transport tends to be too weak. The baroclinic and barotropic conversions show a maximum in the medium‐scale waves. The time evolution of the Richardson number of the mean flow suggests that the medium‐scale wave is due to a baroclinic instability.     

Atmospheric equilibrium,instability and energy transport at the last glacial maximum

A range of diagnostics from two GCM simulations, one of the present-day climate and one of the last glacial maximum (LGM) is used to gain insight into their different temperature structures and eddy dynamics. There are large local increases in baroclinicity at the LGM, especially in the Atlantic storm track, with large accompanying increases in the low level transient eddy heat flux. However, the differences in the zonal mean are much smaller, and the increases in both baroclinicity and heat flux are confined to low levels. Supplementary experiments with baroclinic wave lifecycles confirm the marked contrast between local and zonal mean behaviour, but do not adequately explain the differences between the zonal mean climates. The total flux of energy across latitude circles in the Northern Hemisphere does not change much during DJF, although its transient component is actually reduced at the LGM (during JJA the transient component is increased). Calculations of total linear eddy diffusivity reveal that changes in the time mean stationary waves are chiefly responsible for the seasonal range of this quantity at the LGM, while they only account for half the seasonal range at the present-day.     

北半球定常波输送西风动量的气候态及其年变化

利用高分辨率的再分析资料ERA40，分析了纬向平均状态下北半球不同尺度的定常波对西风动量沿经向输送的气候态及其年变化。结果表明，对流层中定常波对西风动量输送最强的区域位于中纬度对流层的中上层，定常波在该区域长年向北输送纬向动量，且输送中心随季节有南北移动和强弱变化。此外，在高纬度地区的对流层中上层以及赤道对流层顶附近还有两个相对较弱的输送中心。前者对西风动量的输送长年向南，其垂直范围从对流层低层一直伸展到平流层下层，中心位置相对固定，强度有明显的季节变化。后者位置也相对固定，但输送方向随季节改变。平流层中定常波对西风动量的输送主要位于中高纬度的平流层中上层，定常波在该区域长年向北输送西风动量，中心位置非常稳定，而强度则随季节变化明显。行星尺度定常波的输送作用与总波动的输送作用非常一致，并在很大程度上决定了波动对动量输送强度的季节变化。天气尺度定常波和10波以上的短波的输送作用主要集中在中纬度对流层的中高层。前者与行星尺度定常波共同决定了该区域内的输送强度，并主导了输送中心的南北移动；后者的作用很小，除夏季外均可以忽略。作者给出的不同尺度定常波对西风动量输送的气候态分布不但可以作为日后研究其年际变化的基础，而且还可以为大气环流模式对大气环流模拟能力的评估提供重要的参考。     

An assessment of measures of storminess: simulated changes in northern hemisphere winter due to increasing C02

A range of diagnostics from two GCM simulations, one of the present-day climate and one of the last glacial maximum (LGM) is used to gain insight into their different temperature structures and eddy dynamics. There are large local increases in baroclinicity at the LGM, especially in the Atlantic storm track, with large accompanying increases in the low level transient eddy heat flux. However, the differences in the zonal mean are much smaller, and the increases in both baroclinicity and heat flux are confined to low levels. Supplementary experiments with baroclinic wave lifecycles confirm the marked contrast between local and zonal mean behaviour, but do not adequately explain the differences between the zonal mean climates. The total flux of energy across latitude circles in the Northern Hemisphere does not change much during DJF, although its transient component is actually reduced at the LGM (during JJA the transient component is increased). Calculations of total linear eddy diffusivity reveal that changes in the time mean stationary waves are chiefly responsible for the seasonal range of this quantity at the LGM, while they only account for half the seasonal range at the present-day.     

THE ROLE OF THE MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION IN STATIONARY WAVE PROPAGATION

In a general baroclinic atmosphere,when the basic state includes meridional circulation,the sta-tionary waves might not only pass through the equatorial easterlies,but also strengthen significantly.The orographic forcing in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude might cause marked responses in thelow latitude atmosphere.This suggests that the meridional circulation plays an important role in theconnection of stationary responses in mid and low latitudes,and so does the heating forcing in theNorthern Hemisphere mid-latitude.Forced by the heating forcing in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude,the features similar to the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon circulation can be ob-tained.It appears that the meridional circulation plays certain role in the formation of summer mon-soon circulation.The heating anomaly forcing located at the eastern equatorial Pacific makes the sta-tionary waves present PNA(Pacific-North America)pattern in the winter hemisphere,but it doesnot in the summer hemisphere.It suggests that the meridional circulation has a marked influence onthe route of stationary wave propagation both in the winter and summer hemispheres.     

西风角动量输送的气候特征及其与急流关系研究

利用1958～1997年NCEP/NCAR一日四次的风场再分析资料,系统地分析了季节平均西风角动量（即u角动量）经向、垂直输送通量及其三个分量（平均经圈环流、定常波、瞬变涡输送通量）的气候特征,特别是讨论了12～2月、6～8月它们与东、西风带、副热带西风急流、极夜急流之间的联系。结果表明:（1）包含纬度因子的角动量通量与动量通量在高纬地区存在显著差别,高纬对流层上部的强动量输送中心在角动量通量中不明显。而u角动量强经向输送主要在中低纬对流层顶附近和冬半球高纬平流层顶附近,副热带西风急流和极夜西风急流均位于u角动量强向极输送中心及其高纬一侧的辐合区中。（2）发现三个输送分量对急流维持的作用随纬度、季节不同。北半球冬季（夏季）的副热带西风急流主要由平均经圈环流（强度相当的定常波和瞬变涡）强经向输送及辐合维持;南半球西风急流全年均由平均经圈环流和瞬变涡旋输送及辐合维持;冬半球中平流层极夜急流主要由定常波、瞬变涡旋输送及其辐合共同维持。（3）热带东风区是牵连角动量（即Ω角动量）的高值区,它主要由平均经圈环流向对流层上部输送;冬半球副热带及中纬西风区存在u角动量垂直输送的切变区,它主要由平均经圈环流和瞬变涡旋完成;热带对流层顶附近有u角动量的定常波弱向下输送。     

On the role of high latitude ice,snow, and vegetation feedbacks in the climatic response to external forcing changes

A seasonal energy balance climate model containing a detailed treatment of surface and planetary albedo, and in which seasonally varying land snow and sea ice amounts are simulated in terms of a number of explicit physical processes, is used to investigate the role of high latitude ice, snow, and vegetation feedback processes. Feedback processes are quantified by computing changes in radiative forcing and feedback factors associated with individual processes. Global sea ice albedo feedback is 5–8 times stronger than global land snowcover albedo feedback for a 2% solar constant increase or decrease, with Southern Hemisphere cryosphere feedback being 2–5 times stronger than Northern Hemisphere cryosphere feedback.In the absence of changes in ice extent, changes in ice thickness in response to an increase in solar constant are associated with an increase in summer surface melting which is exactly balanced by increased basal winter freezing, and a reduction in the upward ocean-air flux in summer which is exactly balanced by an increased flux in winter, with no change in the annual mean ocean-air flux. Changes in the mean annual ocean-air heat flux require changes in mean annual ice extent, and are constrained to equal the change in meridional oceanic heat flux convergence in equilibrium. Feedback between ice extent and the meridional oceanic heat flux obtained by scaling the oceanic heat diffusion coefficient by the ice-free fraction regulates the feedback between ice extent and mean annual air-sea heat fluxes in polar regions, and has a modest effect on model-simulated high latitude temperature change.Accounting for the partial masking effect of vegetation on snow-covered land reduces the Northern Hemisphere mean temperature response to a 2% solar constant decrease or increase by 20% and 10%, respectively, even though the radiative forcing change caused by land snowcover changes is about 3 times larger in the absence of vegetational masking. Two parameterizations of the tundra fraction are tested: one based on mean annual land air temperature, and the other based on July land air temperature. The enhancement of the mean Northern Hemisphere temperature response to solar constant changes when the forest-tundra ecotone is allowed to shift with climate is only 1/3 to 1/2 that obtained by Otterman et al. (1984) when the mean annual parameterization is used here, and only 1/4 to 1/3 as large using the July parameterization.The parameterized temperature dependence of ice and snow albedo is found to enhance the global mean temperature response to a 2% solar constant increase by only 0.04 °C, in sharp contrast to the results of Washington and Meehl (1986) obtained with a mean annual model. However, there are significant differences in the method used here and in Washington and Meehl to estimate the importance of this feedback process. When their approach is used in a mean annual version of the present model, closer agreement to their results is obtained.     

Comprehensive simulation of the middle atmospheric climate: some recent results

This study discusses the results of comprehensive time-dependent, three-dimensional numerical modelling of the circulation in the middle atmosphere obtained with the GFDL SKYHI troposphere-stratosphere-mesosphere general circulation model (GCM). The climate in a long control simulation with an intermediate resolution version (3° in horizontal) is briefly reviewed. While many aspects of the simulation are quite realistic, the focus in this study is on remaining first-order problems with the modelled middle atmospheric general circulation, notably the very cold high latitude temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter/spring, and the virtual absence of a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the tropical stratosphere. These problems are shared by other extant GCMs. It was noted that the SH cold pole problem is somewhat ameliorated with increasing horizontal resolution in the model. This suggests that improved resolution increases the vertical momentum fluxes from the explicitly resolved gravity waves in the model, a point confirmed by detailed analysis of the spectrum of vertical eddy momentum flux in the winter SH extratropics. This result inspired a series of experiments with the 3° SKYHI model modified by adding a prescribed zonally-symmetric zonal drag on the SH winter westerlies. The form of the imposed momentum source was based on the simple assumption that the mean flow drag produced by unresolved waves has a spatial distribution similar to that of the Eliassen-Palm flux divergence associated with explicitly resolved gravity waves. It was found that an appropriately-chosen drag confined to the top six model levels (above 0.35 mb) can lead to quite realistic simulations of the SH winter flow (including even the stationary wave fields) through August, but that problems still remain in the late-winter/springtime simulation. While the imposed momentum source was largely confined to the extratropics, it produced considerable improvement in the simulation of the equatorial semiannual oscillation, with both the easterly and westerly phases being somewhat more intense than in the control simulation. A separate experiment was conducted in which the SKYHI model was simplified so that it had no topography and so that the seasonal cycle was frozen in perpetual equinox conditions. These changes result in a model that has much reduced interhemispheric asymmetry. This model spontaneously produces a long period mean flow oscillation of considerable amplitude in the tropical upper stratopause. The implication of this result for the general issue of obtaining a QBO in comprehensive GCMs is discussed.     

Influence of Antarctic ice sheet lowering on the Southern Hemisphere climate: modeling experiments mimicking the mid-Miocene

A coupled global atmosphere-ocean model is used to study the influence of the Antarctica ice sheet in a configuration that mimics that of the early Miocene on the atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Based on different climate simulations of the present day (CTR) and conducted with distinct Antarctic ice sheet topography (AIS-EXP), it is found that the reduction of the Antarctic ice sheet topography (AIS) induces warming of the Southern Hemisphere and reduces the meridional thermal gradient. Consequently, the atmospheric transient low level eddy heat flux $[(\overline{v^{\prime}T^{\prime}})]$ and the eddy momentum flux $[(\overline{u^{\prime}v^{\prime}})]$ are reduced causing the reduced transport of heat from the mid-latitudes to the pole. The stationary flow and transient wave anomalies generate changes in the SSTs which modify the rate of deep water formation, strengthening the formation of the Antarctic Bottom Water. Substantial changes are predicted to occur in the atmospheric and oceanic heat transport and a comparison between the total heat transport of the atmosphere-ocean system, as simulated by the AIS-EXP and the CTR runs, shows that the reduction of the AIS height leads to reduced Southern Hemisphere poleward and increased equatorward heat transport. These results are in agreement with reduced storm track activities and baroclinicity.     

Some dynamical consequences of Greenhouse gas warming

Abstract

The change in December‐February climate simulated by the CCC GCM for a doubling of CO₂ is viewed from a Northern Hemisphere middle‐latitude persepctive. The simulated change in temperature is such as to reduce equator‐to‐pole and ocean‐to‐land temperature gradients in the body of the troposphere and this is expected to result in less baroclinicity and baroclinic instability, weaker eddies and transports and generally to a decrease in synoptic activity or, in other words, to more “summer‐like” conditions.

The overall “rate of working” of the atmosphere, as measured by the generation of available potential energy, its conversion to kinetic energy and subsequent dissipation, decreases by some 12%. However, while the amount of available potential energy in the atmosphere decreases by about the same amount, the amount of kinetic energy is unchanged. Differences to the mean zonal, standing and transient eddy components of available potential and kinetic energies and to their rates of generation and conversion show that the energy cycle has changed in ways that might not be immediately expected.

Despite the general decrease in activity, the net poleward transport of energy by the atmosphere is remarkably unchanged. This is accomplished with the expected decrease in the transport of dry static energy being off‐set by an increase in latent energy transport. This is true both for mean zonal and eddy transports. That the same amount of energy is transported by a generally less active atmosphere shows that, in a sense, the flow structures are more “efficient” in the warmer climate and calculations are made to quantify this. The transport of energy in latent form is much more efficient due to the strong increase in moisture content that accompanies the temperature increase.     

Sensitivity of transient eddies to climate change in the CCC general circulation model

Abstract

We use eddy life‐cycle simulations to evaluate the response of atmospheric transient eddies to a global warming caused by CO₂ doubling in the CCC general circulation model. In simulations using Northern Hemisphere winter conditions, transient waves attain larger kinetic energy and encompass a wider range of latitudes in the warmer climate. This behaviour contrasts with a previous investigation that used output from the NCAR and GFDL models. Our analysis indicates two primary factors for the difference between model responses: (1) a smaller change in the mid‐latitude temperature gradient in the CCC model, which allows (2) increased atmospheric water vapour in mid‐latitudes to catalyze a more rapidly evolving life‐cycle.     

9000年前古气候的数值模拟研究

本文用大气物理所的全球大气环流模式模拟了9000年前一月份和七月份的古气候.得出:北半球夏季由于地球轨道参数的变化引起的比现在多7％的太阳辐射使得温度升高了,尤其是高纬地区,海陆对比的加强又增强了季风,季风区域降水增加了;而冬季因为太阳辐射在北半球减少了7％,温度变低了.这些结果与现有的古气候证据相一致,并与其他模拟结果进行了较详细的比较,还作了进一步的讨论.     

厄尼诺现象与北半球大气环流和黑龙江省低温的关系

本文分析了秘鲁沿岸月平均海温与北半球500毫巴月平均高度和黑龙江省月平均气温的关系。结果表明秘鲁沿岸海温对中、低纬的平均高度有明显的影响,还指出了厄尼诺现象与黑龙江省低温——对应。这些结果对黑龙江省夏季低温有一定的预报意义。     

北半球E-P通量分析及其与副热带高压的关系

利用北半球1951－2000年冬季（1月）200hPa,500hPa的月平均资料，计算出E－P通量，并根据平均环流的E－P通量剖面图，研究了北半球冬季在大地形作用下，波动对基本气流的作用，以及波流相互作用下行星波的传播。北半球冬季平均E－P通量的辐合辐散与地形作用形成的大槽大脊相对应，其强度也与槽脊的强度相一致。另外，根据多年夏季（7月）的月平均高度场、风场及降水资料得到E－P通量和副热带高压的关系，进一步得到E－P通量与异常天气的关系。     

经圈环流对定常波传播的影响

在一般斜压大气中，基本气流中包含经圈环流时，定常波传播不仅能穿过东风带，而且明显增强。在基流含有经圈环流的情况下，北半球中纬度地形强迫可引起低纬大气的显著响应，这表明经圈环流在中低纬定常响应的相互联系中起着重要作用；北半球中纬度热力强迫可产生类似北半球夏季季风环流的波列分布，这说明经圈环流在夏季季风环流的形成中起着一定的作用；在赤道东太平洋加热强迫情况下，在冬半球可引起ＰＮＡ型的定常波传播波列，而在夏半球却没有明显的ＰＮＡ特征。这表明经圈环流对冬、夏半球的定常波传播路径有着显著的影响。     

对流层上层定常波异常遥相关型的维持机制

用ＥＣＭＷＦ１９８０－１９８８年的资料和主成份分析方法研究了北半球冬季定常波月平均异常的空间结构和时间变化，分析了对应主要异常型的由辐散风和瞬变涡度通量的异常引起的涡度源异常，并用正压模式研究了涡度源异常在这些异常型维持中的作用。结果表明，瞬变的涡度通量辐合的异常有抵消辐散风所产生的涡度源异常的趋势；单独考虑辐散风异常作为强迫所产生的环流异常与遥相关型的结构和强度相差很大，但如果将瞬变涡度通量辐合的异常也包含到强迫源中，则强迫出来的环流异常会有很大改善