Current meter observations from the Labrador and Newfoundland shelves and comparisons with barotropic model predictions and IIP surface currents

Abstract

Recent current measurements from the southern Labrador and northeastern Newfoundland shelves confirm the presence of inshore and offshore branches of the Labrador Current with high mean currents and low standard deviations. At mid‐shelf weaker and more variable currents occur over the banks, and cross‐shelf flows are found to be associated with the shelf topography. An annual cycle of the inshore branch, in phase with wind forcing, is significant on the NE Newfoundland Shelf but not detectable on Hamilton Bank. The phase of the annual cycle in the offshore branch is consistent with buoyancy, not wind forcing. The observations compare reasonably well with results from a barotropic model for the region and the International Ice Patrol (IIP) surface current map. Differences occur particularly in regions of high bathymetrie curvature or an ill‐defined shelf break. The model location of the Labrador Current lies inshore of that indicated by the data, suggesting the need for better definition of the northern inflow boundary condition and the inclusion of baroclinicity. The HP surface current map agrees well with observations offshore, but shows an unrealistic, broad inshore branch, especially on the Grand Bank These differences have important implications for the drift models.     

Diabatic wind speed profiles in coastal regions: Comparison of an internal boundary layer (IBL) model with observations

A model is presented to transform wind speed observations at a single height over sea or near the coast to any possible location and height in a topographic flat coastal region (up to distances of about 5 km from the coast and up to heights of 100 m). Only moderate and strong winds from the sea are considered, which are particularly important for wind energy applications. The model, called diabatic coast model, which is based on the well known internal boundary layer (IBL) concept and Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, describes the effects of the roughness transition from sea to land as well as the effect of stability on the shape of the profiles and the IBL growth. The predicted IBL heights are compared with published data.In the second part of this paper, the model is compared with measurements taken at the Maasvlakte location near the Dutch coast. It is shown that a neutral formulation of the IBL height is sufficient to model the overall mean wind speed with height, but that stability corrections are needed to describe the diurnal variations in wind speed properly. Finally, an application is given, where a single routine wind speed observation at the coast, combined with air-water temperature differences is used to predict the wind speed at 500m from the coast at heights of 10 and 53 m. The results are in good agreement with the measurements.     

A numerical model of the internal tide in knight inlet,British Columbia

Abstract

A two‐dimensional, hydrostatic numerical model of the tides in Knight Inlet is compared with observations of velocity and density obtained from three cyclesonde moorings. The observations from a fourth cyclesonde mooring were used to provide boundary data at the open end of the model. The time period in the fjord that the model simulates was a period of high, freshwater runoff, so that the fjord had a distinct, surface layer. The use of high, vertical resolution was avoided by attaching a homogeneous, fresh, surface layer to the top of the model. The density equation was linearized about a mean, fixed density field, and the mixing of density was not allowed.

The model reproduces the semidiurnal (M₂, S₂ and N₂) and diurnal (K₁ and O₁) velocity and density signals in the inlet. The shallow‐water constituents (M₄ and MK₃) are reproduced even though the density equation has been linearized. The fortnightly constituent (MSf) is poorly simulated. When the advection terms in the momentum equation are set to zero, the basic features of the semidiurnal and diurnal constituents are still reproduced, but the shallow‐water constituents are poorly simulated.

The energy flux along the inlet of the M₂ internal tide is insensitive to the advective terms in the momentum equation. The total rate of dissipation of M₂ energy is similar to the energy flux in the M₂ internal tide near the sill, which implies that, according to the model, most of the energy removed from the barotropic tide is fed into the internal tide. The majority of the energy in the M₂ internal tide is dissipated close to the sill of the inlet, but enough of the energy makes its way to the head of the inlet to reflect and set up a recognizable standing wave pattern.     

Impact of remote forcing,model resolution and bathymetry on predictions of currents on the shelf

Impacts of remote forcing, model resolution and bathymetry on current predictions at two moorings located on the shelf of the Monterey Bay area are investigated. We consider three Monterey Bay model configurations which differ in resolution and bathymetry representation, and we specify open boundary conditions for these three configurations from two larger scale models, which have different accuracy in the representation of the remote forcing (in the form of poleward propagating along the coast coastally-trapped Kelvin type waves).Comparisons of correlations between observed and model currents as well as visual comparisons show that the most critical element in reproducing currents on the shelf is accurate representation of the remote forcing. Our results also show that accurate representation of bathymetry is the second most critical factor in reproducing observed currents.     

Adiabatic predictions and observations of cloud droplet spectral broadness

The evolution of cloud droplet size spectra is calculated using an adiabatic condensational growth model. Broadness (e.g., standard deviation of diameter) of cloud droplet spectra in adiabatic cloud parcels was determined to be critically dependent on cloud supersaturation. Although droplet spectra become narrower as growth continues, the rate of narrowing is slower when cloud supersaturation is lower. This actually leads to broader droplet spectra for more continental clouds or for weaker updrafts because both of these conditions are associated with lower cloud supersaturations. More continental type clouds, which have higher concentrations of smaller droplets, were indeed found to have larger dispersions (standard deviation of diameter/mean diameter of cloud droplets). Some of these results were consistent with observations, but the larger dispersions that were much more commonly observed for continental compared to maritime clouds were due almost exclusively to smaller droplets rather than broader droplet distributions. Contrary to the model calculations, typical observations show that cleaner clouds usually have broader droplet spectra. The gaps in magnitude between theory and observations of broadness are significant in all clouds. When cloud parcels that had ascended under different updraft conditions were compared at a constant cloud altitude, parcels with lower updrafts were predicted to have broader droplet spectra with larger mean diameters. This trend of apparent spectral broadening was consistent with observations for some near-adiabatic cloud parcels.     

Geometrical effects on western intensification of wind-driven ocean currents: The rotated-channel Stommel model,coastal orientation,and curvature

We revisit early models of steady western boundary currents [Gulf Stream, Kuroshio, etc.] to explore the role of irregular coastlines on jets, both to advance the research frontier and to illuminate for education. In the framework of a steady-state, quasigeostrophic model with viscosity, bottom friction and nonlinearity, we prove that rotating a straight coastline, initially parallel to the meridians, significantly thickens the western boundary layer. We analyze an infinitely long, straight channel with arbitrary orientation and bottom friction using an exact solution and singular perturbation theory, and show that the model, though simpler than Stommel's, nevertheless captures both the western boundary jet (“Gulf Stream”) and the “orientation effect”. In the rest of the article, we restrict attention to the Stommel flow (that is, linear and inviscid except for bottom friction) and apply matched asymptotic expansions, radial basis function, Fourier–Chebyshev and Chebyshev–Chebyshev pseudospectral methods to explore the effects of coastal geometry in a variety of non-rectangular domains bounded by a circle, parabolas and squircles. Although our oceans are unabashedly idealized, the narrow spikes, broad jets and stationary points vividly illustrate the power and complexity of coastal control of western boundary layers.     

Potential evaporation in the peace river region of British Columbia

Abstract

Micrometeorological data collected over pasture in the Peace River area of British Columbia during the wet summer of 1977 were used to test the Priestley and Taylor (1972) model for potential evaporation. The model performed very well. RMSE was less than 10% of the mean evaporation rate on a daytime basis using an alpha value of 1.26. Since the model is mainly dependent on net radiation, which is rarely measured in such remote areas, this quantity was also estimated from more readily available meteorological data and used to calculate evaporation. Results were encouraging; calculated values were generally within 20 and 10% of energy balance estimates on daily and 5‐day mean bases.     

The Kettles Hill Project: Field observations,wind-tunnel simulations and numerical model predictions for flow over a low hill

Field observations of the influence of topography on steady, neutrally-stratified boundary-layer flow were carried out in February 1981 and March 1984 on Kettles Hill near Pincher Creek, Alberta, Canada. The primary measurements were of wind speed at 3,6, and 10 m levels at stations in linear arrays along and across the major axis of this gentle, 1 km long and 100 m high, elliptical hill. Wind profile measurements up to heights of 200 m were made with TALA kites and tethersondes on the hilltop and at a reference site located about 3.7 km west of the hilltop. In addition, AIRsondes were flown and tracked from the reference site to provide additional data. The field observations provided the basic data for a comparison with wind-tunnel and numerical model simulations of the same flow. The wind-tunnel investigation was carried out in the Atmospheric Environment Service Boundary-Layer Wind Tunnel while the numerical model used was MS3DJH. For horizontal profiles of normalized mean wind speed at given heights above the prototype terrain, model results agree reasonably well with the field data. The wind-tunnel predictions are slightly high in most cases. For vertical profiles of wind speed up to 200 m above the hilltop, the numerical and wind-tunnel values are higher than were observed. The sensitivity of the normalized wind speed at the hilltop to deviations from non-logarithmic upwind profiles is demonstrated with data from the March 1984 experiment. A comparison of prototype with numerical-model mean-wind-direction perturbations at the 10 m level shows reasonable agreement except near the summit of the hill.Contractor: 24 Heslop Drive, Toronto.     

Comparison of precipitation in the regional climate model BALTIMOS to radar observations

Observational data and simulations of the regional climate system Baltic integrated model system (BALTIMOS) were used to study precipitation in the Baltic Sea and its drainage basin with a special focus on the diurnal cycle. The study includes a general evaluation of BALTIMOS precipitation, showing that BALTIMOS has too many light rain events causing an overestimation of the total annual precipitation amount. The diurnal cycle as well as its spatial distribution was analysed. BALTIMOS captures the broad characteristics: a significant diurnal variability with an afternoon peak above land and weak variability with a nocturnal peak above sea. An algorithm to distinguish between frontal and convective precipitation was applied to examine the diurnal cycle more thoroughly. The local solar time of maximum rain in summer is about 1 to 2 h earlier in BALTIMOS than in radar observations of precipitation.     

Some features of sea ice formation in Antarctic coastal waters

Considered are the peculiarities of fast ice formation in the Antarctic coastal waters. It is noted that the fine-crystalline ice with the chaotic orientation of crystals is mainly developed in the surface layers of the ice cover as well as the ice formed due to the infiltration of the sea water and its subsequent freezing in the lower layers of the snow cover. It is demonstrated that under the conditions of coastal Antarctic, the lamination of the structure during the period of ice cover formation and its subsequent development is the result of heavy precipitation in the form of snow and the formation of the large amount of snow sludge and crystals of intrawater ice (frazil ice) on the open water. The main distinctive feature of the Antarctic sea ice is its seasonal stratification with the formation of the surface layer of recrystallized ice and underlying destructive layers including the water interlayer in the ice column. The provision of the safety of overice movement of machinery requires the development of methods of continuous remote control of the snow-ice stratum of the fast ice.     

Sea level responses to climatic variability and change in northern British Columbia

Abstract

Sea level responses to climatic variability (CV) and change (CC) signals at multiple temporal scales (interdecadal to monthly) are statistically examined using long‐term water level records from Prince Rupert (PR) on the north coast of British Columbia. Analysis of observed sea level data from PR, the longest available record in the region, indicates an annual average mean sea level (MSL) trend of +1.4±0.6 mm yr^?1 for the period (1939–2003), as opposed to the longer term trend of 1±0.4 mm yr^?1 (1909–2003). This suggests a possible acceleration in MSL trends during the latter half of the twentieth century. According to the results of this study, the causes behind this acceleration can be attributed not only to the effects of global warming but also to cyclic climate variability patterns such as the strong positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase that has been present since the mid‐1970s. The linear regression model based on highest sea levels (MAXSL) of each calendar year showed a trend exceeding twice that (3.4 mm yr^?1) of MSL. Previous work shows that the influence of vertical crustal motions on relative sea level are negligible at PR.

Relations between sea levels and known CV indices (e.g., the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), PDO, Northern Oscillation Index (NOI), and Aleutian Low Pressure Index (ALPI)) are explored to identify potential controls of CV phenomena (e.g., the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), PDO) on regional MSL and MAXSL. Linear and non‐linear statistical methods including correlation analyses, multiple regression, Cumulative Sum (CumSum) analysis, and Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) are used. Results suggest that ENSO forcing (as shown by the MEI and NOI indices) exerts significant influence on winter sea level fluctuations, while the PDO dominates summer sea level variability. The observational evidence at PR also shows that, during the period 1939–2003, these cyclic shorter temporal scale sea level fluctuations in response to CV were significantly greater than the longer term sea‐level rise trend by as much as an order of magnitude and with trends over twice that of MSL. Such extreme sea level fluctuations related to CV events should be the immediate priority for the development of coastal adaptation strategies, as they are superimposed on long‐term MSL trends, resulting in greater hazard than longer term MSL rise trends alone.     

Analysis of a regional model (EURAD) near surface gas concentration predictions using observations from networks

Summary The three-dimensional long-range transport model EURAD has been applied to two episodes in 1986 to study the transport and transformation of air pollutants over Europe under different meteorological conditions. The spring episode is characterized by varying meteorological conditions over Europe and transport of pollutants is complex. The summer episode is suitable to study the enhanced formation of photooxidants as an almost stagnant high pressure system over central Europe favoured the accumulation of pollutants. Available observations from several monitoring networks in Europe are used to evaluate the near surface concentration predictions of the model. This is possible for the sulfur species, O₃ and NO₂ for the central part of the modelling domain. It is shown that O₃ and NO₂ trends in the western part of the model domain are estimated reasonably well. The strong bias for underpredicting NO₂ in the eastern part of the domain reflects the quality of emission data for the two regions of the modelling area. Typically for regional scale Eulerian transport models when applied on larger grid sizes, EURAD overpredicts the observed minima and underpredicts the high observations. This is particularly true for O₃ but also detectable in the sulfate comparisons. Several sensitivity simulations for both episodes were performed to test numerical algorithms, parameterizations or emission data. Results from these simulations clearly show the important role of cloud related processes during the spring time for the sulfur species. Further testing and assessment of cloud parameterizations and emission data for transport models is anticipated.With 22 Figures     

Cloud distributions over the coastal Arctic Ocean: surface-based and satellite observations

All-weather Arctic cloud analyses primarily derived from a surface-based hemispheric all-sky imager are compared against ISCCP D-1 cloud amount, type, and phase during the sunlit polar season. Increasing surface temperatures and decreasing ice cover over the past decade have altered heat and moisture fluxes around the Arctic, providing conditions more conducive for cloud generation. Shipboard and ice camp measurements from field experiments conducted over an 8-year period show cloudy skies in 70–95% of the record. Most of these occurrences are stratiform or multi-level, multi-form cloud, increasing in amount with time through the season. Collocated ISCCP retrievals underestimate cloud amount at small solar zenith angles and overestimate at large angles, sometimes by as much as 50%. Satellite assessments of cloud form classify 95% of scenes as having multiple cloud types, the majority of which are mid-level ice cloud and low-level liquid cloud. Despite large discrepancies in diurnal cloud amount, regional averages of ISCCP pixel cloudiness over the length of the experiments agree within ±5% of surface observations.     

The partition of internal tidal motions in knight inlet,British Columbia

Abstract

A reanalysis of 4 current‐meter records taken from Knight Inlet, B.C., is presented. The data indicate that the internal tide in Knight Inlet at M₂ frequency undergoes a substantial reflection near a sharp bend in the channel. This result conflicts directly with a result obtained recently by Blackford and presented in this issue.     

“It's so different today”: Climate change and indigenous lifeways in British Columbia,Canada

Indigenous Peoples of British Columbia have always had to accommodate and respond to environmental change. Oral histories, recollections of contemporary elders, and terms in indigenous languages all reflect peoples’ responses to such change, especially since the coming of Europeans. Very recently, however, many people have noted signs of greater environmental change and challenges to their resilience than they have faced in the past: species declines and new appearances; anomalies in weather patterns; and declining health of forests and grasslands. These observations and perspectives are important to include in discussions and considerations of global climate change.     

Sensitivity of PBL model predictions to model design and uncertainties in environmental inputs

A simple time-dependent one-dimensional model of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is described and used to examine the degree to which model design decisions affect model output variables. The model's sensitivity to changes in the environmental conditions is also explored. Averages of the surface fluxes, near-ground wind speeds and other PBL properties from 48 h simulations are compared to control runs. The model-calculated surface fluxes are most sensitive, in decreasing order of importance, to the vertical grid spacing, the form of closure between the surface temperature and the atmosphere, the use of vertical diffusivity smoothing, the choice of maximum time step and choice of turbulence closure scheme. These fluxes are relatively insensitive to mixing-length scaling or choice of implicit time step weighting factor. Sensitivity to changes in soil type exceeds any of the design criteria tested. The modeled fluxes are moderately sensitive to small variations in the horizontal pressure gradient, to unsteadiness in the geostrophic wind and to variations in surface roughness. They are relatively insensitive to uncertainties in local vertical velocities and small (25%) variations applied separately to soil thermal diffusivity or heat capacity. The sensitivity of the average PBL depth (Z _i ) to model and environmental changes are similar to those of surface fluxes except thatZ _i is more sensitive to changes in mixing length, albedo and imposed vertical velocity then are the surface fluxes.     

The Role of the Kuroshio in the Winter North Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction： Comparison of a Coupled Model and Observations

A comparative study between the output of the Flexible Global Climate Model Version 1.0 (FGCM- 1.0) and the observations is performed. At 500 hPa, the geopotential height of FGCM is similar to the observations, but in the North Pacific the model gives lower values, and the differences are most significant over the northern boundary of the Pacific. In a net heat flux comparison, the spatial patterns of the two are similar in winter, but more heat loss appears to the east of Japan in FGCM than in COADS. On the interannual timescale, strong (weak) Kuroshio transports to the east of Taiwan lead the increasing (decreasing) net heat flux, which is centered over the Kuroshio Extension region, by 1–2 months, with low (high) pressure anomaly responses appearing at 500 hPa over the North Pacific (north of 25N) in winter. The northward heat transport of the Kuroshio is one of the important heat sources to support the warming of the atmosphere by the ocean and the formation of the low pressure anomaly at 500 hPa over the North Pacific in winter.     

How EU policies could reduce nutrient pollution in European inland and coastal waters

Intensive agriculture and densely populated areas represent major sources of nutrient pollution for European inland and coastal waters, altering the aquatic ecosystems and affecting their capacity to provide ecosystem services and support economic activities. Ambitious water policies are in place in the European Union (EU) for protecting and restoring aquatic ecosystems under the Water Framework Directive and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. This research quantified the current pressures of point and diffuse nitrogen and phosphorus emissions to European fresh and coastal waters (2005–2012), and analysed the effects of three policy scenarios of nutrient reduction: 1) the application of measures currently planned in the Rural Development Programmes and under the Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive (UWWTD); 2) the full implementation of the UWWTD and the absence of derogations in the Nitrates Directive; 3) high reduction of nutrient, using best technologies in wastewaters treatment and optimal fertilisation in agriculture. The results of the study show that for the period 2005–2012, the nitrogen load to European seas was 3.3–4.1 TgN/y and the phosphorus load was 0.26–0.30 TgP/y. Policy measures supporting technological improvements (third scenario) could decrease the nutrient export to the seas up to 14% for nitrogen and 20% for phosphorus, improving the ecological status of rivers and lakes, but widening the nutrient imbalance in coastal ecosystems (i.e. increasing nitrogen availability with respect to phosphorus), affecting eutrophication. Further nutrient reductions could be possible by a combination of measures especially in the agricultural sector. However, without tackling current agricultural production and consumption system, the reduction might not be sufficient for achieving the goals of EU water policy in some regions. The study analysed the expected changes and the source contribution in different European regional seas, and highlights the advantages of addressing the land-sea dynamics, checking the coherence of measures taken under different policies.     

Assessing community vulnerability: A study of the mountain pine beetle outbreak in British Columbia, Canada

Arguing that community-based assessments of vulnerability to climate change are congruent with the scale at which policy action takes place, this paper presents an assessment of vulnerability conducted in forest-based communities surrounded by a catastrophic outbreak of forest disease. Our assessment includes measures of several dimensions of vulnerability, developed using an interdisciplinary and participatory research process. We find that for some communities vulnerability represents a high level of economic risk, while for others risk is exacerbated by institutional limitations. We also find that community perceptions of risk and bio-physical assessments differ widely for communities anticipating future outbreaks of disease.