An Evaluation of Temperature and Precipitation Surface-Based and Reanalysis Datasets for the Canadian Arctic, 1950–2010

The spatial and temporal consistency of seasonal air temperature and precipitation in eight widely used gridded observation-based climate datasets (CANGRD, CRU-TS3.1, CRUTEM4.1, GISTEMP, GPCC, GPCP, HadCRUT3, and UDEL) and eight reanalyses (20CR, CFSR, ERA-40, ERA-Interim, JRA25, MERRA, NARR, and NCEP2) was evaluated over the Canadian Arctic for the 1950–2010 period. The evaluation used the CANGRD dataset, which is based on homogenized temperature and adjusted precipitation from climate stations, as a reference. Dataset agreement and bias were observed to exhibit important spatial, seasonal, and temporal variability over the Canadian Arctic with the largest spread occurring between datasets over mountain and coastal regions and over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Reanalysis datasets were typically warmer and wetter than surface observation-based datasets, with CFSR and 20CR exhibiting biases in total annual precipitation on the order of 300?mm. Warm bias in 20CR exceeded 12°C in winter over the western Arctic. Analysis of the temporal consistency of datasets over the 1950–2010 period showed evidence of discontinuities in several datasets as well as a noticeable increase in dataset spread in the period after approximately 2000. Declining station networks, increased automation, and the inclusion of new satellite data streams in reanalyses are potential contributing factors to this phenomenon. Evaluation of trends over the 1950–2010 period showed a relatively consistent picture of warming and increased precipitation over the Canadian Arctic from all datasets, with CANGRD giving moistening trends two times larger than the multi-dataset average related to the adjustment of the station precipitation data. The study results indicate that considerable care is needed when using gridded climate datasets in local or regional scale applications in the Canadian Arctic.     

Estimating the trends and variability of atmospheric action centers over the Asian-Pacific region in summer in 1950–1979 and 1980–2012

The trend significance and the residual variability of integral atmospheric characteristics in the atmospheric action centers in the Asian-Pacific region in summer in 1950-1979 and 1980-2012 are computed. Basic differences are revealed between trends in circulation and residual variability in the atmo spheric action centers in the surface pressure field and in the field of geopotential H ₅₀₀ for these time periods. Increase in significant trends for the whole period and decrease in residual variability were found in the area of the Asian low in 1980-2012. A significant trend was observed in June and September in the area of the Hawaiian high. The summer Far Eastern low has intensified in recent years. The Okhotsk high strengthened in May and weakened in June, August, and September in the 2000s.     

Weather and traffic accidents in the Czech Republic, 1979–2020

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Police records, kept in the form of yearbooks, enabled analysis of the possible relationships between traffic accidents and the weather in the Czech Republic...     

Hydroclimatic trends during 1950–2018 over global land

Global hydroclimatic changes from 1950 to 2018 are analyzed using updated data of land precipitation, streamflow, and an improved form of the Palmer Drought Severity Index. The historical changes are then compared with climate model-simulated response to external forcing to determine how much of the recent change is forced response. It is found that precipitation has increased from 1950 to 2018 over mid-high latitude Eurasia, most North America, Southeast South America, and Northwest Australia, while it has decreased over most Africa, eastern Australia, the Mediterranean region, the Middle East, and parts of East Asia, central South America, and the Pacific coasts of Canada. Streamflow records largely confirm these precipitation changes. The wetting trend over Northwest Australia and Southeast South America is most pronounced in austral summer while the drying over Africa and wetting trend over mid-high latitude Eurasia are seen in all seasons. Coupled with the drying caused by rising surface temperatures, these precipitation changes have greatly increased the risk of drought over Africa, southern Europe, East Asia, eastern Australia, Northwest Canada, and southern Brazil. Global land precipitation and continental freshwater discharge show large interannual and inter-decadal variations, with negative anomalies during El Niño and following major volcanic eruptions in 1963, 1982, and 1991; whereas their decadal variations are correlated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) with IPO’s warm phase associated with low land precipitation and continental discharge. The IPO and Atlantic multidecadal variability also dominate multidecadal variations in land aridity, accounting for 90 % of the multidecadal variance. CMIP5 multi-model ensemble mean shows decreased precipitation and runoff and increased risk of drought during 1950–2018 over Southwest North America, Central America, northern and central South America (including the Amazon), southern and West Africa, the Mediterranean region, and Southeast Asia; while the northern mid-high latitudes, Southeast South America, and Northwest Australia see increased precipitation and runoff. The consistent spatial patterns between the observed changes and the model-simulated response suggest that many of the observed drying and wetting trends since 1950 may have resulted at least partly from historical external forcing. However, the drying over Southeast Asia and wetting over Northwest Australia are absent in the 21st century projections.

     

Temporal fluctuations in weather disasters: 1950–1989

A unique historical data set describing the 142 storms producing losses in excess of $100 million in the United States during the 1950–89 period were analyzed to describe their temporal characteristics. These weather disasters (WDs) caused $66.2 billion in losses, 76% of the nation's insured losses in this period. Disasters were most prevalent in the south, southeast, northeast, and central U.S., with few in and west of the Rockies. The incidence of WDs was high in the 1950s, low in the 1960s-early 1970s, and peaked in the 1980s. Losses due to WDs peaked in the 1950s, again in the late 1960s, and with a lesser peak after 1985. The areal extent of storm losses peaked after 1975 and was least in the 1960s. The temporal variations of the three storm measures (incidence, losses, and extent) had poor agreement, and agreed only when they peaked in the 1950s. Regionally-derived time distributions of WDs showed marked north-south differences with a U-shaped 40-year distribution in the northern half of the nation, whereas southern regions had a relatively flat trend until achieving a peak in the 1980s. The temporal distributions of hurricane-caused disasters differed regionally, with the distributions in the southern, southeastern, and northeastern U.S. each quite different. Temporal distributions of thunderstorm and winter storm-produced disasters were regionally more uniform. The national 5-year WD frequencies correlated moderately well with annual mean temperatures which explained 40% of the variability found in WDs during 1950–89. Weather disasters peaked in the relatively warm-dry 1950s and again in the warm-wet 1980s, and were least in the cool-wet 1960s and 1970s. The distribution of WDs during 1950–89 appears positively related to the temporal fluctuations in cyclonic activity.     

Climate Change in the Subtropical Jetstream during 1950–2009

A study of six decades(1950–2009) of reanalysis data reveals that the subtropical jetstream(STJ) of the Southern(Northern) Hemisphere between longitudes 0°E and 180°E has weakened(strengthened) during both the boreal winter(January,February) and summer(July, August) seasons. The temperature of the upper troposphere of the midlatitudes has a warming trend in the Southern Hemisphere and a cooling trend in the Northern Hemisphere. Correspondingly, the north–south temperature gradient in the upper troposphere has a decreasing trend in the Southern Hemisphere and an increasing trend in the Northern Hemisphere, which affects the strength of the STJ through the thermal wind relation. We devised a method of isotach analysis in intervals of 0.1 m s-1in vertical sections of hemispheric mean winds to study the climate change in the STJ core wind speed, and also core height and latitude. We found that the upper tropospheric cooling of the Asian mid-latitudes has a role in the strengthening of the STJ over Asia, while throughout the rest of the globe the upper troposphere has a warming trend that weakens the STJ. Available studies show that the mid-latitude cooling of the upper troposphere over Asia is caused by anthropogenic aerosols(particularly sulphate aerosols) and the warming over the rest of the global mid-latitude upper troposphere is due to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.     

A Climatology of the Southwest Vortex during 1979–2008

Using a new vortex detection and tracing method, a dataset of the Southwest Vortex（SWV） is established based on Japanese 25-year Reanalysis（JRA-25） reanalysis data during 1979–2008. The spatiotemporal features of the SWV are derived from the dataset. In comparison to other seasons, summer yields the least SWVs, but with the highest probability that they will migrate from their region of origin. SWVs mostly emerge in the southwest of the Sichuan Basin and the southeast of the Tibetan Plateau. Migratory SWVs mainly move along either an eastward or southeastward path. Detailed composite analysis of warm-season SWVs shows that the subtropical high is a key factor in determining the direction of migratory SWVs. Furthermore, the steering wind at 700 hPa dominates the moving direction of migratory SWVs. Potential stability diagnosed by pseudo-equivalent potential temperature ？ se is of certain significance for the evolution and movement of SWVs. On the other hand, migratory SWVs possess relatively greater strength than stationary SWVs, due to a stronger low-level jet with enhanced baroclinicity and moisture transport providing more energy to support the growth of SWVs along their paths of movement.     

Update of Canadian Historical Snow Survey Data and Analysis of Snow Water Equivalent Trends, 1967–2016

ABSTRACT

In situ observations of snow water equivalent (SWE) from manual snow surveys and automated sensors are made at approximately 1000 sites across Canada in support of water resource planning for flood control and hydroelectricity production. These data represent an important source of information for research (e.g., validation of hydrological and climate models), for applied studies (e.g., ground snow loads), and for climate monitoring. This note describes the process to update a Canadian historical snow survey dataset to 2016 and the production of a 0.1° gridded version for research applications. Analysis of trends in SWE, snow depth (SD), and density over the 50-year period from 1967 to 2016 revealed large spatial variability in trend sign and strength, with a relatively small percentage of points showing statistically significant trends. Where SWE and SD trends were significant, they tended to be negative, which is consistent with previous investigations of snow cover changes in Canada. The results show evidence of a latitudinal dependence in SWE trends, with the largest negative trends occurring over lower latitudes, and a tendency for mainly positive trends in Arctic SWE, which is consistent with observations from Russia and climate model projections of the response of Arctic snow cover to climate warming. Arctic sites also showed evidence of an increasing trend in 1 April snowpack density of 6.6?kg m^?3 per decade but little corresponding change in SD. This has potentially important consequences for the soil thermal regime because it provides a cooling influence from an increase in the snowpack effective thermal conductivity. The snow survey dataset is available from the Government of Canada Open Data portal.     

Atmospheric influence on Arctic marginal ice zone position and width in the Atlantic sector, February–April 1979–2010

Arctic marginal ice zone (MIZ) widths in the Atlantic sector were measured during the months of maximum sea ice extent (February–April) for years 1979–2010 using a novel method based on objective curves through idealized sea ice concentration fields that satisfied Laplace’s equation. Over the record, the Labrador Sea MIZ (MIZ_L) had an average width of 122 km and narrowed by 28 % while moving 254 km poleward, the Greenland Sea MIZ (MIZ_G) had an average width of 98 km and narrowed by 43 % while moving 158 km west toward the Greenland coast, and the Barents Sea MIZ (MIZ_B) had an average width of 136 km and moved 259 km east toward the Eurasian coast without a trend in width. Trends in MIZ position and width were consistent with a warming Arctic and decreasing sea ice concentrations over the record. Beyond the trends, NAO-like atmospheric patterns influenced interannual variability in MIZ position and width: MIZ_L widened and moved southeast under anomalously strong northerly flow conducive to advection of sea ice into the Labrador Sea, MIZ_G widened and moved northeast under anomalously weak northerly flow conducive to diminishing the westward component of sea ice drift, and MIZ_B widened and moved poleward at the expense of pack ice under anomalously strong southwesterly flow conducive to enhancing oceanic heat flux into the Barents Sea. In addition, meridional flow anomalies associated with the NAO per se moved MIZ_B east and west by modulating sea ice concentration over the Barents Sea.     

The global metabolic transition: Regional patterns and trends of global material flows, 1950–2010

Since the World War II, many economies have transitioned from an agrarian, biomass-based to an industrial, minerals-based metabolic regime. Since 1950, world population grew by factor 2.7 and global material consumption by factor 3.7–71 Gigatonnes per year in 2010. The expansion of the resource base required by human societies is associated with growing pressure on the environment and infringement on the habitats of other species. In order to achieve a sustainability transition, we require a better understanding of the currently ongoing metabolic transition and its potential inertia. In this article, we present a long-term global material flow dataset covering material extraction, trade, and consumption of 177 individual countries between 1950 and 2010. We trace patterns and trends in material flows for six major geographic and economic country groupings and world regions (Western Industrial, the (Former) Soviet Union and its allies, Asia, the Middle East and Northern Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa) as well as their contribution to the emergence of a global metabolic profile during a period of rapid industrialization and globalization. Global average material use increased from 5.0 to 10.3 tons per capita and year (t/cap/a) between 1950 and 2010. Regional metabolic rates range from 4.5 t/cap/a in Sub-Saharan Africa to 14.8 t/cap/a in the Western Industrial grouping. While we can observe a stabilization of the industrial metabolic profile composed of relatively equal shares of biomass, fossil energy carriers, and construction minerals, we note differences in the degree to which other regions are gravitating toward a similar form of material use. Since 2000, Asia has overtaken the Western Industrial grouping in terms of its share in global resource use although not in terms of its per capita material consumption. We find that at a sub-global level, the roles of the world regions have changed. There are, however, no signs yet that this will lead to stabilization or even a reduction of global resource use.     

Elevational Dependence of Air Temperature Variability and Trends in British Columbia's Cariboo Mountains, 1950–2010

Pristine mountain environments are more sensitive to climate change than other land surfaces. Climatic variations in mountainous terrain are still poorly understood. Previous studies revealed inconsistent findings on the elevational dependence of warming in the mountains. In this study, the trends and elevational dependence of air temperature in the Cariboo Mountains Region (CMR) of British Columbia are explored using a surface air temperature dataset with a spatial resolution of five arc minutes over the 1950–2010 period. A Mann-Kendall test is performed for evaluation of trends and their significance. In recent decades the CMR has been warming at a faster rate than regional and global warming. The minimum air temperature trend shows significant amplified warming at higher elevations. The snow–albedo feedback and changes in cloud cover over the CMR may possibly be the major physical mechanisms responsible for these trends. The implications of such changes on the endangered mountain caribou and water resources of the area are also discussed.     

Canadian International Polar Year (2007–2008): an introduction

Canadian contributions to International Polar Year (IPY) 2007?C2008 were designed to improve the understanding of climate change impacts and adaptation and to gain insight into issues surrounding community health and well-being in Canada??s arctic. Fifty-two research projects, involving scientists, northern partners and communities, focused on the arctic atmosphere and climate, cryosphere, oceans, sea ice, marine ecosystems, terrestrial ecosystems, wildlife as well as human health and community well-being. Key research findings on these topics are presented in this special issue of Climatic Change. This introductory paper presents an overview of the international and Canadian IPY programs and a summary of Canadian IPY results, including progress made in data management and capacity building. The legacy of IPY in Canada includes expanded international scientific cooperation, meaningful partnerships with northern communities, and more northern residents with research training.     

Nordostalpine Seehöhenmittel der Niederschlagsmenge (1851–1950)

Zusammenfassung Aus 320 Niederschlagsstationen der Periode 1891 bis 1930 werden für 50 m-Stufen Seehöhenmittel der Niederschlagsmenge für die Monate und für das Jahr abgeleitet und auf die Periode 1851 bis 1950 umgerechnet mitgeteilt. Die klimatische Besonderheit einer sekundären Maispitze in den monatlichen Niederschlagsmengen, die sich in der 100jährigen Wiener Reihe als Häufigkeitsmaximum maximaler Monatswerte, der Niederschlagsmenge zeigt, wird als Besonderheit des pannonischen Klimas erkannt und ihre auffällige Auswirkung in den abgeleiteten Seehöhenmitteln als Effekt örtlicher Mai-Gewitter und Starkregen klargestellt. Vergleiche der Niederschlagskurven verschiedener Bergstationen erläutern die Uneinheitlichkeit des alpinen Niederschlagsregimes als Folge der Funktion der Alpen als mehrfacher Klimascheide und die Notwendigkeit, von einem einheitlichen regionalen Mittelwert für die ganzen Alpen abzusehen. Als Folge dieser Tatsache werden regionale Mittelwerte als Grundlagen für Anomaliendarstellungen des alpinen Niederschlagsregimes abgelehnt und die Gründe hierfür an einem Beispiel erläutert.

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Summary On the basis of measurements at 320 stations of the period 1891–1930 monthly and annual averages of precipitation are calculated for 50 m-intervals of altitude and reduced to the period 1851–1950. The climatic peculiarity of a secondary may-maximum in the monthly amounts of rainfall resulting from the 100 year-series at Vienna as a frequency maximum of the highest monthly values of precipitation was found to be characteristic for the Pannonian climate. Its obvious effect as shown by the averages derived for different altitudes is accounted for by the local may-thunderstorms and downpours. By comparison of the precipitation curves of different mountain stations it becomes clear that there exists no uniform Alpine precipitation regime on account of the Apls functioning as climatic septum. Hence the necessity follows to renounce a uniform regional mean value for the Alps. Therefore, it is not allowed to use regional mean values as a basis for representing the anomalies of the Alpine precipitation regime, what is shown by an example.

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Résumé On évalue des précipitations mensuelles et annuelles moyennes pour les niveaux de 50 en 50 m à partir des mesures de 320 stations de la période 1891–1930, réduite à la période 1851–1950. Le maximum secondaire du mois de mai (ou apparaît dans la série, centenaire de Vienne la fréquence la plus élevée des maxima mensuels) est considéré comme une particularité du climat de la Pannonie; il est dû aux orages locaux de mai et à des averses torrentielles. La comparaison des courbes de précipitations de différentes stations de montagne illustre le caractère hétérogère du régime pluvial alpin, conséquence des particularités géographiques de la grande chaîne comme barrière climatique; elle montre aussi l'impossibilité d'établir une valeur moyenne caractéristique de l'ensemble du domaine alpin. L'auteur renonce de ce fait à faire appel à des moyennes régionales pour l'étude des anomalies du régime pluvial alpin et en donne les motifs par un exemple.

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Mit 2 Textabbildungen.     

Trends in Canadian Short‐Duration Extreme Rainfall: Including an Intensity–Duration–Frequency Perspective

Short-duration (5 minutes to 24 hours) rainfall extremes are important for a number of purposes, including engineering infrastructure design, because they represent the different meteorological scales of extreme rainfall events. Both single location and regional analyses of the changes in short-duration extreme rainfall amounts across Canada, as observed by tipping bucket rain gauges from 1965 to 2005, are presented. The single station analysis shows a general lack of a detectable trend signal, at the 5% significance level, because of the large variability and the relatively short period of record of the extreme short-duration rainfall amounts. The single station 30-minute to 24-hour durations show that, on average, 4% of the total number of stations have statistically significant increasing amounts of rainfall, whereas 1.6% of the cases have significantly decreasing amounts. However, regional spatial patterns are apparent in the single station trend results. Thus, for the same durations regional trends are presented by grouping the single station trend statistics across Canada. This regional trend analysis shows that at least two-thirds of the regions across Canada have increasing trends in extreme rainfall amounts, with up to 33% being significant (depending on location and duration). Both the southwest and the east (Newfoundland) coastal regions generally show significant increasing regional trends for 1- and 2-hour extreme rainfall durations. For the shortest durations of 5–15 minutes, the general overall regional trends in the extreme amounts are more variable, with increasing and decreasing trends occurring with similar frequency; however, there is no evidence of statistically significant decreasing regional trends in extreme rainfall amounts. The decreasing regional trends for the 5- to 15-minute duration amounts tend to be located in the St. Lawrence region of southern Quebec and in the Atlantic provinces. Additional analysis using criteria specified for traditional water management practice (e.g., Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF)) shows that fewer than 5.6% and 3.4% of the stations have significant increasing and decreasing trends, respectively, in extreme annual maximum single location observation amounts. This indicates that at most locations across Canada the traditional single station IDF assumption that historical extreme rainfall observations are stationary (in terms of the mean) over the period of record for an individual station is not violated. However, the trend information is still useful complementary information that can be considered for water management purposes, especially in terms of regional analysis.     

Atmospheric impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss, 1979–2009: separating forced change from atmospheric internal variability

The ongoing loss of Arctic sea-ice cover has implications for the wider climate system. The detection and importance of the atmospheric impacts of sea-ice loss depends, in part, on the relative magnitudes of the sea-ice forced change compared to natural atmospheric internal variability (AIV). This study analyses large ensembles of two independent atmospheric general circulation models in order to separate the forced response to historical Arctic sea-ice loss (1979–2009) from AIV, and to quantify signal-to-noise ratios. We also present results from a simulation with the sea-ice forcing roughly doubled in magnitude. In proximity to regions of sea-ice loss, we identify statistically significant near-surface atmospheric warming and precipitation increases, in autumn and winter in both models. In winter, both models exhibit a significant lowering of sea level pressure and geopotential height over the Arctic. All of these responses are broadly similar, but strengthened and/or more geographically extensive, when the sea-ice forcing is doubled in magnitude. Signal-to-noise ratios differ considerably between variables and locations. The temperature and precipitation responses are significantly easier to detect (higher signal-to-noise ratio) than the sea level pressure or geopotential height responses. Equally, the local response (i.e., in the vicinity of sea-ice loss) is easier to detect than the mid-latitude or upper-level responses. Based on our estimates of signal-to-noise, we conjecture that the local near-surface temperature and precipitation responses to past Arctic sea-ice loss exceed AIV and are detectable in observed records, but that the potential atmospheric circulation, upper-level and remote responses may be partially or wholly masked by AIV.     

Winter Arctic Amplification at the synoptic timescale, 1979–2018, its regional variation and response to tropical and extratropical variability

We investigate winter Arctic Amplification (AA) on synoptic timescales and at regional scales using a daily version of the Arctic Amplification Index (AAI) and examine causes on a synoptic scale. The persistence, frequency and intensity of high AAI events show significant increases over the Arctic. Similarly, low AAI events are decreasing in frequency, persistence and intensity. In both cases, there are regional variations in these trends, in terms of significance and timing. Significant trends in increasing persistence, frequency and intensity of high AAI events in winter are concentrated in the period 2000–2009, with few significant trends before and after this. There are some decreases in sea-ice concentration in response to synoptic-scale AA events and these AA events can contribute to the decadal trends in AA found in other studies. A sectoral analysis of the Arctic indicates that in the Beaufort–Chukchi and East Siberian–Laptev Seas, synoptic scale high AAI events can be driven by tropical teleconnections while in other Arctic sectors, it is the intrusion of moisture-transporting synoptic cyclones into the Arctic that is most important in synoptic-scale AA. The presence of Rossby wave breaking during high AAI events is indicative of forcing from lower latitudes, modulated by variations in the jet stream. An important conclusion is that the increased persistence, frequency and intensity of synoptic-scale high AAI events make significant contributions to the interannual trend in AA.

     

Trends of Regional Precipitation and Their Control Mechanisms during 1979–2013

Trends in precipitation are critical to water resources. Considerable uncertainty remains concerning the trends of regional precipitation in response to global warming and their controlling mechanisms. Here, we use an interannual difference method to derive trends of regional precipitation from GPCP(Global Precipitation Climatology Project) data and MERRA(ModernEra Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis in the near-global domain of 60?S–60?N during a major global warming period of 1979–2013. We find that trends of regional annual precipitation are primarily driven by changes in the top 30% heavy precipitation events, which in turn are controlled by changes in precipitable water in response to global warming, i.e., by thermodynamic processes. Significant drying trends are found in most parts of the U.S. and eastern Canada,the Middle East, and eastern South America, while significant increases in precipitation occur in northern Australia, southern Africa, western India and western China. In addition, as the climate warms there are extensive enhancements and expansions of the three major tropical precipitation centers–the Maritime Continent, Central America, and tropical Africa–leading to the observed widening of Hadley cells and a significant strengthening of the global hydrological cycle.     

Recent change of the global monsoon precipitation (1979–2008)

The global monsoon (GM) is a defining feature of the annual variation of Earth’s climate system. Quantifying and understanding the present-day monsoon precipitation change are crucial for prediction of its future and reflection of its past. Here we show that regional monsoons are coordinated not only by external solar forcing but also by internal feedback processes such as El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). From one monsoon year (May to the next April) to the next, most continental monsoon regions, separated by vast areas of arid trade winds and deserts, vary in a cohesive manner driven by ENSO. The ENSO has tighter regulation on the northern hemisphere summer monsoon (NHSM) than on the southern hemisphere summer monsoon (SHSM). More notably, the GM precipitation (GMP) has intensified over the past three decades mainly due to the significant upward trend in NHSM. The intensification of the GMP originates primarily from an enhanced east–west thermal contrast in the Pacific Ocean, which is coupled with a rising pressure in the subtropical eastern Pacific and decreasing pressure over the Indo-Pacific warm pool. While this mechanism tends to amplify both the NHSM and SHSM, the stronger (weaker) warming trend in the NH (SH) creates a hemispheric thermal contrast, which favors intensification of the NHSM but weakens the SHSM. The enhanced Pacific zonal thermal contrast is largely a result of natural variability, whilst the enhanced hemispherical thermal contrast is likely due to anthropogenic forcing. We found that the enhanced global summer monsoon not only amplifies the annual cycle of tropical climate but also promotes directly a “wet-gets-wetter” trend pattern and indirectly a “dry-gets-drier” trend pattern through coupling with deserts and trade winds. The mechanisms recognized in this study suggest a way forward for understanding past and future changes of the GM in terms of its driven mechanisms.