Distinctions between the characteristics of before and after DH CMEs associated flares

A detailed analysis of characteristics of coronal mass ejections and flares associated with deca-hectometer wavelength type-II radio bursts (DH-CMEs and DH-flares) observed in the period 1997–2008 is presented. A sample of 62 limb events is divided into two populations known as after-flare CMEs (AF-CMEs) and before-flare CMEs (BF-CMEs) based on the relative timing of the flare and CME onsets. On average, AF-CMEs (1589 km s⁻¹) have more speed than the BF-CMEs (1226 km s⁻¹) and the difference between mean values are highly significant (P∼2%). The average CME nose height at the time of type-II start is at larger distance for AF-CMEs than the BF-CMEs (4.89 and 3.84 R _o, respectively). We found a good anti-correlation for accelerating (R _a=−0.89) and decelerating (R _d=−0.78) AF-CMEs. In the case of decelerating BF-CMEs, the correlation seems to be similar to that for decelerating AF-CMEs (R _d=−0.83). The number of decelerating AF-CMEs is 51% only; where as, the number of decelerating BF-CMEs is 83%. The flares associated with BF-CMEs have shorter rise and decay times than flares related to AF-CMEs. We found statistically significant differences between the two sets of associated DH-type-II bursts characteristics: starting frequency (P∼4%), drift rate (P∼1%), and ending frequency (P∼6%). The delay time analysis of DH-type-II start and flare onset times shows that the time lags are longer in AF-CME events than in BF-CME events (P≪1%). From the above results, the AF-CMEs which are associated with DH-type-II bursts are found to be more energetic, associated with long duration flares and DH-type-IIs of lower ending frequencies.     

Characteristics of DH type II bursts, CMEs and flares with respect to the acceleration of CMEs

A detailed investigation on DH-type-II radio bursts recorded in Deca-Hectometer (hereinafter DH-type-II) wavelength range and their associated CMEs observed during the year 1997–2008 is presented. The sample of 212 DH-type-II associated with CMEs are classified into three populations: (i) Group I (43 events): DH-type-II associated CMEs are accelerating in the LASCO field view (a>15 m s⁻²); (ii) Group II (99 events): approximately constant velocity CMEs (−15<a<15 m s⁻²) and (iii) Group III (70 events): represents decelerating CMEs (a<−15 m s⁻²). Our study consists of three steps: (i) statistical properties of DH-type-II bursts of Group I, II and III events; (ii) analysis of time lags between onsets of flares and CMEs associated with DH-type-II bursts and (iii) statistical properties of flares and CMEs of Group I, II and III events. We found statistically significant differences between the properties of DH-type-II bursts of Group I, II and III events. The significance (P _a ) is found using the one-way ANOVA-test to examine the differences between means of groups. For example, there is significant difference in the duration (P _a =5%), ending frequency (P _a =4%) and bandwidth (P _a =4%). The accelerating and decelerating CMEs have more kinetic energy than the constant speed CMEs. There is a significant difference between the nose height of CMEs at the end time of DH-type-IIs (P _a ≪1%). From the time delay analysis, we found: (i) there is no significant difference in the delay (flare start—DH-type-II start and flare peak—DH-type-II start); (ii) small differences in the time delay between the CME onset and DH-type-II start, delay between the flare start and CME onset times. However, there are high significant differences in: flare duration (P _a =1%), flare rise time (P _a =0.5%), flare decay time (P _a =5%) and CMEs speed (P _a ≪1%) of Group I, II and III events. The general LASCO CMEs have lower width and speeds when compared to the DH CMEs. It seems there is a strong relation between the kinetic energy of CMEs and DH-type-II properties.     

Width of Radio-Loud and Radio-Quiet CMEs

In the present paper we report on the difference in angular sizes between radio-loud and radio-quiet CMEs. For this purpose we compiled these two samples of events using Wind/WAVES and SOHO/LASCO observations obtained during 1996 – 2005. We show that the radio-loud CMEs are almost twice as wide as the radio-quiet CMEs (considering expanding parts of CMEs). Furthermore, we show that the radio-quiet CMEs have a narrow expanding bright part with a large extended diffusive structure. These results were obtained by measuring the CME widths in three different ways.     

Near-Sun Flux-Rope Structure of CMEs

We have used the Krall flux-rope model (Krall and St. Cyr, Astrophys. J. 2006, 657, 1740) (KFR) to fit 23 magnetic cloud (MC)-CMEs and 30 non-cloud ejecta (EJ)-CMEs in the Living With a Star (LWS) Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop (CDAW) 2011 list. The KFR-fit results shows that the CMEs associated with MCs (EJs) have been deflected closer to (away from) the solar disk center (DC), likely by both the intrinsic magnetic structures inside an active region (AR) and ambient magnetic structures (e.g. nearby ARs, coronal holes, and streamers, etc.). The mean absolute propagation latitudes and longitudes of the EJ-CMEs (18^°, 11^°) were larger than those of the MC-CMEs (11^°, 6^°) by 7^° and 5^°, respectively. Furthermore, the KFR-fit widths showed that the MC-CMEs are wider than the EJ-CMEs. The mean fitting face-on width and edge-on width of the MC-CMEs (EJ-CMEs) were 87 (85)^° and 70 (63)^°, respectively. The deflection away from DC and narrower angular widths of the EJ-CMEs have caused the observing spacecraft to pass over only their flanks and miss the central flux-rope structures. The results of this work support the idea that all CMEs have a flux-rope structure.     

Kinematics and Flare Properties of Radio-Loud CMEs

A detailed analysis of the characteristics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares associated with decameter-hectometer wavelength type-II radio bursts (hereafter DH-type-II radio bursts, DH-CMEs or radio-loud CMEs) observed in the period 1997??C?2008 is presented. A sample of 61 limb events is divided into two populations based on the residual acceleration: accelerating CMEs (a _r>0) and decelerating CMEs (a _r<0). We found that average speed (residual acceleration) of all limb DH-CMEs (called radio-loud CMEs) is nearly three (two) times greater than the average speed of the general population CMEs (radio-quiet CMEs). While the initial acceleration (a _i) of the accelerating DH-CMEs is smaller than that of decelerating DH-CMEs (0.79 and 1.62 km?s^?2, respectively), the average speed and magnitude of residual acceleration of the accelerating and decelerating DH-CMEs are similar (??V _CME??: 1254 km?s^?1 and 1303 km?s^?1; ??a _r??: 0.026 km?s^?2 and 0.028 km?s^?2, respectively). The accelerating DH-CMEs attain their peak speed at larger heights than decelerating DH-CMEs. A good positive and negative linear correlation for accelerating and decelerating DH-CMEs (R _a=0.74 and R _d=?0.77, respectively) is found. The flares associated with accelerating DH-CME events have longer rise times and decay times than flares of decelerating DH-CME. The accelerating and decelerating DH-CMEs events associated with DH-type-II bursts have similar ending frequencies. The analysis of time lags between DH-type-II start and the flare onset shows that the delays are longer in accelerating DH-CMEs than decelerating DH-CMEs (P??7 %). However, the time lags between the DH-type-II start and the CMEs onset are similar.     

Geoeffectiveness and flare properties of radio-loud CMEs

A detailed investigation on geoeffective CMEs associated with meter to Deca-Hectometer (herein after m- and DH-type-II) wavelengths range type-II radio bursts observed during the period 1997–2005 is presented. The study consists of three steps: i) the characteristics of m-and DH-type-II bursts associated with flares and geoeffective CMEs; ii) characteristics of geo and non-geoeffective radio-loud and quiet CMEs, iii) the relationships between the geoeffective CMEs and flares properties. Interestingly, we found that 92 % of DH-type-II bursts are extension of m-type-II burst which are associated with faster and wider geoeffective DH-CMEs and also associated with longer/stronger flares. The geoeffective CME-associated m-type-II bursts have higher starting frequency, lower ending frequency and larger bandwidth compared to the general population of m-type-II bursts. The geoeffective CME-associated DH-type-II bursts have longer duration (P?1 %), lower ending frequency (P=2 %) and lower drift rates (P=2 %) than that of DH-type-IIs associated with non-geoeffective CMEs. The differences in mean speed of geoeffective DH-CMEs and non-geoeffective DH-CMEs (1327 km?s^?1 and 1191 km?s^?1, respectively) is statistically insignificant (P=20 %).However, the mean difference in width (339^° and 251^°, respectively) is high statistical significant (P=0.8 %). The geo-effective general populations of LASCO CMEs speeds (545 km?s^?1 and 450 km?s^?1, respectively) and widths (252^° and 60^°, respectively) is higher than the non geo-effective general populations of LASCO CMEs (P=3 % and P=0.02 %, respectively). The geoeffective CMEs associated flares have longer duration, and strong flares than non-geoeffective DH-CMEs associated flares (P=0.8 % and P=1 %, respectively). We have found a good correlation between the geo-effective flare and DH-CMEs properties: i) CMEs speed—acceleration (R=?0.78, where R is a linear correlation coefficient), ii) acceleration—flare peak flux (R=?0.73) and, iii) acceleration—Dst index intensity (R=0.75). The radio-rich CMEs (DH-CMEs) produced more energetic storm than the radio-quiet CMEs (general populations of LASCO CMEs). The above results indicate that the DH-type-II bursts tend to be related with flares and geoeffective CMEs, although there is no physical explanation for the result. If the DH-type-II burst is a continuation of m-type-II burst, it could be a good indicator of geoeffective storms, which has important implications for space weather studies.     

Relationship of Halo CMEs and Solar Proton Events

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are important sources of Solar Proton Events (SPEs). Their speeds and source region locations have significant effects on the occurrence of SPEs. In this paper, all the halo CMEs observed in recent five years are statistically analyzed. The results show that the fast halo CMEs with small angular distances are more likely to produce SPEs, especially, those halo CMEs with a speed greater than 1200 km s^?1 and an angular distance less than 60°. Three fast halo CMEs with no SPEs caused are elaborately studied. The results show that the ejection direction of the CME's main body and the variation of interplanetary magnetic field also have important impacts on the occurrence of SPEs. Consequently, in the practical daily space environment forecasts, an accurate forecast for SPEs must take various factors into account, such as the eruption speed, source region location, the main-body ejection direction of CMEs, and the interplanetary environment, etc.     

UV diagnostics for the energy budget of flares and CMEs

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections convert large amounts of magnetic free energy into thermal, kinetic and potential energies, and into energy of non-thermal particles. The partitioning among these forms of energy is fundamental to both the physics of the eruptive events and the space weather consequences of the eruptions. This talk describes some aspects of the energy budget that can be derived from ultraviolet observations of the corona.     

Automatic Short-Term Solar Flare Prediction Using Machine Learning and Sunspot Associations

In this paper, a machine-learning-based system that could provide automated short-term solar flare prediction is presented. This system accepts two sets of inputs: McIntosh classification of sunspot groups and solar cycle data. In order to establish a correlation between solar flares and sunspot groups, the system explores the publicly available solar catalogues from the National Geophysical Data Center to associate sunspots with their corresponding flares based on their timing and NOAA numbers. The McIntosh classification for every relevant sunspot is extracted and converted to a numerical format that is suitable for machine learning algorithms. Using this system we aim to predict whether a certain sunspot class at a certain time is likely to produce a significant flare within six hours time and if so whether this flare is going to be an X or M flare. Machine learning algorithms such as Cascade-Correlation Neural Networks (CCNNs), Support Vector Machines (SVMs) and Radial Basis Function Networks (RBFN) are optimised and then compared to determine the learning algorithm that would provide the best prediction performance. It is concluded that SVMs provide the best performance for predicting whether a McIntosh classified sunspot group is going to flare or not but CCNNs are more capable of predicting the class of the flare to erupt. A hybrid system that combines a SVM and a CCNN is suggested for future use.     

投影改正后CME的速度分布

目前观测的CME(日冕物质抛射)是其在天空平面的投影,这就导致CME的观测参量与真实参量之间存在一定的差异,比如说观测到的CME速度一般要比CME的真实速度小.运用基于锥状模型对CME的速度进行投影改正的方法,分析1996年9月到2007年9月(将近1个活动周)SOHO/LASCO日冕仪观测到的1 691个仅与耀斑相关的CME(简称FL类CME)和610个仅与暗条爆发相关的CME(简称FE类CME)投影改正前后的速度分布,得到如下结果:(1)投影改正前后,FL类CME和FE类CME的速度分布非常相似.且投影改正前后,两类CME的平均速度几乎相同; (2)投影改正前后,FL类CME和FE类CME速度的自然对数分布也非常相似.     

Cyclical variability of prominences, CMEs and flares

Solar flares, prominences and CMEs are well known manifestations of solar activity. For many years, qualitative studies were made about the cyclical behaviour of such phenomena. Nowadays, more quantitative studies have been undertaken with the aim to understand the solar cycle dependence of such phenomena as well as peculiar behaviour, such as asymmetries and periodicities, occurring within the solar cycle. Here, we plan to review the more recent research concerning all these topics.     

Velocity Distribution of CMEs After Projection Correction

The observed CME (coronal mass ejection) is its projection on the sky plane, and this leads to certain discrepancies between the observational and true parameters of the CME. For example, the observed velocity is generally smaller than the true velocity. The method of making projection correction for the CME velocity based on the conical model is utilized to analyze the velocity distributions of the 1691 CMEs which are only correlated to flares (called the class FL CMEs for short) and the 610 CMEs which are only correlated to filament eruptions (called the class FE CMEs for short) before and after the projection correction. These CMEs were observed with the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronograph on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory from September 1996 to September 2007 (close to a solar cycle). The obtained results are as follows: (1) before and after the projection correction the velocity distribution of FL CMEs is quite similar to that of FE CMEs, and before and after the projection correction the mean velocities of the two classes of CMEs are almost the same; (2) before and after the projection correction, the natural logarithm distribution of the FL CME velocities is also very similar to that of the FE CME velocities.     

A Study of the Earth-Affecting CMEs of Solar Cycle 24

Using in situ observations from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), we have identified 70 Earth-affecting interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) in Solar Cycle 24. Because of the unprecedented extent of heliospheric observations in Cycle 24 that has been achieved thanks to the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI) instruments onboard the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO), we observe these events throughout the heliosphere from the Sun to the Earth, and we can relate these in situ signatures to remote sensing data. This allows us to completely track the event back to the source of the eruption in the low corona. We present a summary of the Earth-affecting CMEs in Solar Cycle 24 and a statistical study of the properties of these events including the source region. We examine the characteristics of CMEs that are more likely to be strongly geoeffective and examine the effect of the flare strength on in situ properties. We find that Earth-affecting CMEs in the first half of Cycle 24 are more likely to come from the northern hemisphere, but after April 2012, this reverses, and these events are more likely to originate in the southern hemisphere, following the observed magnetic asymmetry in the two hemispheres. We also find that as in past solar cycles, CMEs from the western hemisphere are more likely to reach Earth. We find that Cycle 24 lacks in events driving extreme geomagnetic storms compared to past solar cycles.     

Kinetic Properties of CMEs Corrected for the Projection Effect

Observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with coronagraphs are subject to a projection effect, which results in statistical errors in many properties of CMEs, such as the eruption speed and the angular width. In this paper, we develop a method to obtain the velocity and angular width distributions of CMEs corrected for the projection effect, and then re-examine the relationship between CMEs and the associated flares. We find that (1) the mean eruption speed is 792 km s⁻¹ and the mean angular width is 59^∘, compared to the values of 549 km s⁻¹ and 77^∘, respectively before the correction; (2) after the correction, the weak correlation between CME speeds and the GOES X-ray peak flux of the flares gets unexpectedly poorer; and (3) before correction, there is a weak correlation between the angular width and the speed of CMEs, whereas the correlation is absent after the correction.     

Influence of the Solar Global Magnetic-Field Structure Evolution on CMEs

We consider the influence of the solar global magnetic-field structure (GMFS) cycle evolution on the occurrence rate and parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in Solar Cycles 23?–?24. It has been shown that, over solar cycles, CMEs are not distributed randomly, but they are regulated by evolutionary changes in the GMFS. It is proposed that the generation of magnetic Rossby waves in the solar tachocline results in the GMFS cycle changes. Each Rossby wave period favors a particular GMFS. It is proposed that the changes in wave periods result in GMFS reorganization and consequently in CME location, occurrence rate, and parameter changes. The CME rate and parameters depend on the sharpness of the GMFS changes, the strength of the global magnetic field, and the phase of a cycle.     

Active-Region Filaments and X-ray Sigmoids

We use Yohkoh soft X-ray telescope data and H full-disk observations to study the evolution of chromospheric filaments and coronal sigmoids in 6 active regions in association with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In two cases, CMEs are directly observed by the SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph. In four cases, other observations (magnetic clouds, geomagnetic storms, sigmoid-arcade evolution) are used as CME indicators. Prior to eruption, each active region shows a bright coronal sigmoidal loop and underlying H filament. The sigmoid activates, erupts and gets replaced by a cusp, or an arcade. In contrast, the H filament shows no significant changes in association with sigmoid eruption and CME. We explain these observations in a framework of the classical two-ribbon flare model.     

Deflection and Rotation of CMEs from Active Region 11158

Between 13 and 16 February 2011, a series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) erupted from multiple polarity inversion lines within active region 11158. For seven of these CMEs we employ the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) flux rope model to determine the CME trajectory using both Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and coronagraph images. We then use the model called Forecasting a CME’s Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT) for nonradial CME dynamics driven by magnetic forces to simulate the deflection and rotation of the seven CMEs. We find good agreement between ForeCAT results and reconstructed CME positions and orientations. The CME deflections range in magnitude between \(10^{\circ }\) and \(30^{\circ}\). All CMEs are deflected to the north, but we find variations in the direction of the longitudinal deflection. The rotations range between \(5^{\circ}\) and \(50^{\circ}\) with both clockwise and counterclockwise rotations. Three of the CMEs begin with initial positions within \(2^{\circ}\) from one another. These three CMEs are all deflected primarily northward, with some minor eastward deflection, and rotate counterclockwise. Their final positions and orientations, however, differ by \(20^{\circ}\) and \(30^{\circ}\), respectively. This variation in deflection and rotation results from differences in the CME expansion and radial propagation close to the Sun, as well as from the CME mass. Ultimately, only one of these seven CMEs yielded discernible in situ signatures near Earth, although the active region faced toward Earth throughout the eruptions. We suggest that the differences in the deflection and rotation of the CMEs can explain whether each CME impacted or missed Earth.     

Filaments and large-scale magnetic fields

We have used Stanford magnetic field maps to construct distributions of longitudinal magnetic field gradients in the neighbourhood of polarity inversion lines. The distributions were constructed with proper account of the type of the polarity inversion lines and of the existence or absence of dark filaments above them. It is shown that for polarity inversion lines that pass inside active regions or on their boundary, grad B_II distributions for portions of the lines with persisting filament are shifted toward lower values of gradient as compared with grad B_II distributions for portions of the lines without filaments. The influence of the spatial resolution of the magnetograms upon polarity inversion line characteristics is discussed.