Environmental water quantity projections under market-driven and sustainability-driven future scenarios in the Narew basin,Poland

Abstract

The aim of this article is to assess the impact of four scenarios combining possible changes in climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide, land use and water use by 2050, on the specific set of ecologically relevant flow regime indicators that define environmental flow requirements in a semi-natural river basin in Poland. This aim is presented through a modelling case study using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Indicators show both positive and negative responses to future changes. Warm projections from the IPSL-CM4 global climate model combined with sustainable land- and water-use projections (SuE) produce the most negative changes, while warm and wet projections from the MIROC3.2 model combined with market-driven projections (EcF) gave the most positive changes. Climate change overshadows land- and water-use change in terms of the magnitude of projected flow alterations. The future of environmental water quantity is brighter under the market-driven rather than the sustainability-driven scenario, which shows that sustainability for terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. more forests and grasslands) can be at variance with sustainability for riverine and riparian ecosystems (requiring sufficient amount and proper timing of river flows).

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Piniewski, M., Okruszko, T., and Acreman, M.C., 2014. Environmental water quantity projections under market-driven and sustainability-driven future scenarios in the Narew basin, Poland. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 916–934.     

Empirical nonergodic shaking scenarios based on spatial correlation models: An application to central Italy

This paper provides a new methodological framework to generate empirical ground shaking scenarios, designed for engineering applications and civil protection planning. The methodology is useful both to reconstruct the ground motion pattern of past events and to generate future shaking scenarios, in regions where strong‐motion datasets from multiple events and multiple stations are available. The proposed methodology combines (1) an ad‐hoc nonergodic ground motion model (GMM) with (2) a spatial correlation model for the source region‐, site‐, and path‐systematic residual terms, and (3) a model of the remaining aleatory error to take into account for directivity effects. The associated variability is a function of the type of scenario generated (bedrock or site, past or future event) and it is minimal for source areas where several events have occurred and for sites where recordings are available. In order to develop the region‐specific fully nonergodic GMM and to compute robust estimation of the residual terms, the approach is calibrated on a highly dense dataset compiled for the area of central Italy. Example tests demonstrate the validity of the approach, which allows to simulate acceleration response spectra at unsampled sites, as well as to capture peculiar physical features of ground motion patterns in the region. The proposed approach could be usefully adopted for data‐driven simulations of ground shaking maps, as alternative or complementary tool to physic‐based and stochastic‐based approaches.     

Using isotopes to understand landscape-scale connectivity in a groundwater-dominated,lowland catchment under drought conditions

The Demnitzer Millcreek catchment (DMC), is a 66 km² long-term experimental catchment located 50 km SE of Berlin. Monitoring over the past 30 years has focused on hydrological and biogeochemical changes associated with de-intensification of farming and riparian restoration in the low-lying landscape dominated by rain-fed farming and forestry. However, the hydrological function of the catchment, which is closely linked to nutrient fluxes and highly sensitive to climatic variability, is still poorly understood. In the last 3 years, a prolonged drought period with below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures has resulted in marked hydrological change. This caused low soil moisture storage in the growing season, agricultural yield losses, reduced groundwater recharge, and intermittent streamflows in parts of an increasingly disconnected channel network. This paper focuses on a two-year long isotope study that sought to understand how different parts of the catchment affect ecohydrological partitioning, hydrological connectivity and streamflow generation during drought conditions. The work has shown the critical importance of groundwater storage in sustaining flows, basic in-stream ecosystem services and the dominant influence of vegetation on groundwater recharge. Recharge was much lower and occurred during a shorter window of time in winter under forests compared to grasslands. Conversely, groundwater recharge was locally enhanced by the restoration of riparian wetlands and storage-dependent water losses from the stream to the subsurface. The isotopic variability displayed complex emerging spatio-temporal patterns of stream connectivity and flow duration during droughts that may have implications for in-stream solute transport and future ecohydrological interactions between landscapes and riverscapes. Given climate projections for drier and warmer summers, reduced and increasingly intermittent streamflows are very likely not just in the study region, but in similar lowland areas across Europe. An integrated land and water management strategy will be essential to sustaining catchment ecosystem services in such catchment systems in future.     

Quantifying seasonal export and retention of nutrients in West European lowland rivers at catchment scale

To set accurate critical values for the protection of lakes and coastal areas, it is crucial to know the seasonal variation of nutrient exports from rivers. This article presents an improved method for estimating export and in‐stream nutrient retention and its seasonal variation. For 13 lowland river catchments in Western Europe, inputs to surface water and exports were calculated on a monthly basis. The catchments varied in size (21 to 486 km²), while annual in‐stream retention ranged from 23 to 84% for N and 39 to 72% for P. A novel calculation method is presented that quantifies monthly exports from lowland rivers based on an annual load to the river system. Inputs in the calculation are annual emission to the surface waters, average monthly river discharge, average monthly water temperature and fraction of surface water area in the catchment. The method accounts for both seasonal variation of emission to the surface water and seasonal in‐stream retention. The agreement between calculated values and calibration data was high (N: r² = 0·93; p < 0·001 and P: r² = 0·81; p < 0·001). Validation of the model also showed good results with model efficiencies for the separate catchments ranging from 31 to 95% (average 76%). This indicates that exports of nitrogen and phosphorus on a monthly basis can be calculated with few input data for a range of West European lowland rivers. Further analysis showed that retention in summer is higher than that in winter, resulting in lower summer nutrient concentrations than that calculated with an average annual input. This implies that accurate evaluation of critical thresholds for eutrophication effects must account for seasonal variation in hydrology and nutrient loading. Our quantification method thus may improve the modelling of eutrophication effects in standing waters. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydro-economic models: Concepts, design, applications, and future prospects

Future water management will shift from building new water supply systems to better operating existing ones. The variation of water values in time and space will increasingly motivate efforts to address water scarcity and reduce water conflicts. Hydro-economic models represent spatially distributed water resource systems, infrastructure, management options and economic values in an integrated manner. In these tools water allocations and management are either driven by the economic value of water or economically evaluated to provide policy insights and reveal opportunities for better management. A central concept is that water demands are not fixed requirements but rather functions where quantities of water use at different times have varying total and marginal economic values. This paper reviews techniques to characterize the economic value of water use and include such values in mathematical models. We identify the key steps in model design and diverse problems, formulations, levels of integration, spatial and temporal scales, and solution techniques addressed and used by over 80 hydro-economic modeling efforts dating back 45-years from 23 countries. We list current limitations of the approach, suggest directions for future work, and recommend ways to improve policy relevance.     

Statistical downscaling of extreme daily precipitation,evaporation, and temperature and construction of future scenarios

Generally, the statistical downscaling approaches work less perfectly in reproducing precipitation than temperatures, particularly for the extreme precipitation. This article aimed to testify the capability in downscaling the extreme temperature, evaporation, and precipitation in South China using the statistical downscaling method. Meanwhile, the linkages between the underlying driving forces and the incompetent skills in downscaling precipitation extremes over South China need to be extensively addressed. Toward this end, a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was built up to construct future scenarios of extreme daily temperature, pan evaporation, and precipitation. The model was thereafter applied to project climate extremes in the Dongjiang River basin in the 21st century from the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) model under A2 and B2 emission scenarios. The results showed that: (1) The SDSM generally performed fairly well in reproducing the extreme temperature. For the extreme precipitation, the performance of the model was less satisfactory than temperature and evaporation. (2) Both A2 and B2 scenarios projected increases in temperature extremes in all seasons; however, the projections of change in precipitation and evaporation extremes were not consistent with temperature extremes. (3) Skills of SDSM to reproduce the extreme precipitation were very limited. This was partly due to the high randomicity and nonlinearity dominated in extreme precipitation process over the Dongjiang River basin. In pre‐flood seasons (April to June), the mixing of the dry and cold air originated from northern China and the moist warm air releases excessive rainstorms to this basin, while in post‐flood seasons (July to October), the intensive rainstorms are triggered by the tropical system dominated in South China. These unique characteristics collectively account for the incompetent skills of SDSM in reproducing precipitation extremes in South China. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling river water temperature using deterministic,empirical, and hybrid formulations in a Mediterranean stream

River water temperature is a common target of water quality models at the watershed scale, owing to its principal role in shaping biogeochemical processes and in stream ecology. Usually, models include physically‐based, deterministic formulations to calculate water temperatures from detailed meteorological information, which usually comes from meteorological stations located far from the river reaches. However, alternative empirical approaches have been proposed, that usually depend on air temperature as master variable. This study explored the performance of a semidistributed water quality application modelling river water temperature in a Mediterranean watershed, using three different approaches. First, a deterministic approach was used accounting for the different heat exchange components usually considered in water temperature models. Second, an empirical approximation was applied using the equilibrium temperature concept, assuming a linear relationship with air temperature. And third, a hybrid approach was constructed, in which the temperature equilibrium concept and the deterministic approach were combined. Results showed that the hybrid approach gave the best results, followed by the empirical approximation. The deterministic formulation gave the worst results. The hybrid approach not only fitted daily river water temperatures, but also adequately modelled the daily temperature range (maximum–minimum daily temperature). Other river water features directly dependent on water temperature, such as river intrusion depth in lentic systems (i.e. the depth at which the river inflow plunges to equilibrate density differences with lake water), were also correctly modelled even at hourly time steps. However, results for the different heat fluxes between river and atmosphere were very unrealistic. Although direct evidence of discrepancies between meteorological drivers measured at the meteorological stations and the actual river microclimate was not found, the use of models including empirical or hybrid formulations depending mainly on air temperature is recommended if only meteorological data from locations far from the river reaches are available. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seasonal variations in groundwater upwelling zones in a Danish lowland stream analyzed using Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS)

The distribution of groundwater inflows in a stream reach plays a major role in controlling the stream temperature, a vital component shaping the riverine ecosystem. In this study, the Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) system was installed in a small Danish lowland stream, Elverdamsåen, to assess the seasonal dynamics of groundwater inflow zones using high spatial (1 m) and temporal (3 minutes) resolution of water temperature measurements. Four simple criteria consisting of 30 min average temperature at 16:00, mean and standard deviation of diurnal temperatures, and the day–night temperature difference were applied to three DTS datasets representing stream temperature responses to the variable meteorological and hydrological conditions prevailing in summer, winter and spring. The standard deviation criterion was useful to identify groundwater discharge zones in summer and spring conditions, while the mean temperature criterion was better for the winter conditions. In total, 20 interactions were identified from the DTS datasets representing summer, 16 in winter and 19 in spring, albeit with only two interactions contributing in all three seasons. Higher baseflow to streamflow ratio, antecedent precipitation and presence of fractured clayey till in the stream reach were deemed as the vital factors causing apparent seasonal variation in the locations of upwelling zones, prompting use of DTS not only in preconceived scenarios of large diurnal temperature change but rather a long‐term deployment covering variable meteorological and hydrological scenarios. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the effect of vegetation‐related bank strength on channel morphology and stability in gravel‐bed streams using numerical models

Bank strength due to vegetation dominates the geometry of small stream channels, but has virtually no effect on the geometry of larger ones. The dependence of bank strength on channel scale affects the form of downstream hydraulic geometry relations and the meandering‐braiding threshold. It is also associated with a lateral migration threshold discharge, below which channels do not migrate appreciably across their floodplains. A rational regime model is used to explore these scale effects: it parameterizes vegetation‐related bank strength using a dimensionless effective cohesion, C_r*. The scale effects are explored primarily using an alluvial state space defined by the dimensionless formative discharge, Q*, and channel slope, S, which is analogous to the Q–S diagrams originally used to explore meandering‐braiding thresholds. The analyses show that the effect of vegetation on both downstream hydraulic geometry and the meandering‐braiding threshold is strongest for the smallest streams in a watershed, but that the effect disappears for Q* > 10⁶. The analysis of the migration threshold suggests that the critical discharge ranges from about 5 m³/s to 50 m³/s, depending on the characteristic rooting depth for the vegetation. The analysis also suggests that, where fires frequently affect riparian forests, channels may alternate between laterally stable gravel plane‐bed channels and laterally active riffle‐pool channels. These channels likely do not exhibit the classic dynamic equilibrium associated with alluvial streams, but instead exhibit a cyclical morphologic evolution, oscillating between laterally stable and laterally unstable end‐members with a frequency determined by the forest fire recurrence interval. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water balance components estimation under scenarios of land cover change in the Vea catchment,West Africa

ABSTRACT

The need for a detailed investigation of the Vea catchment water balance components cannot be overemphasized due to its accelerated land-cover dynamics and the associated impacts on the hydrological processes. This study assessed the possible consequences of land-use change scenarios (i.e. business as usual, BAU, and afforestation for the year 2025) compared to the 2016 baseline on the Vea catchment’s water balance components using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The data used include daily climate and discharge, soil and land use/land cover maps. The results indicate that the mean annual water yield may increase by 9.1% under the BAU scenario but decrease by 2.7% under the afforestation scenario; actual evapotranspiration would decrease under BAU but increase under afforestation; and groundwater recharge may increase under both scenarios but would be more pronounced under the afforestation scenario. These outcomes highlight the significance of land-cover dynamics in water resource management and planning at the catchment.     

The performance of rainwater tanks for stormwater retention and water supply at the household scale: an empirical study

Urban stormwater run‐off degrades the ecological condition of streams. The use of rainwater tanks to supplement water supply can reduce the frequency and volume of urban stormwater run‐off that is otherwise conveyed directly to streams via conventional stormwater drainage systems. Few studies, however, have examined the use of tanks in the context of managing flow regimes for stream protection, with most focussed uniquely on their water conservation benefits. We used measured tank water level data to assess the performance of 12 domestic rainwater tanks against the dual criteria of their ability to (i) reduce potable mains water usage and (ii) retain run‐off from rainfall events and thus reduce the volume and frequency of stormwater run‐off. We found that five households relied almost entirely on tank water. Three of the tanks achieved stormwater retention performance approaching that of the same area of pre‐developed land, although nine did not – a consequence of limited demand and small tank capacity. Our results suggest that tank water usage can result in substantial reductions in mains water use, if regular and sufficiently large domestic demands are connected to tanks. In many cases, such demands will also result in the best stormwater retention performance. Our results highlight an opportunity to design tank systems to achieve multiple objectives. Application of similar analyses in different locations will help to optimize tanks for simultaneous water supply and stormwater retention purposes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hyporheic exchange flows induced by constructed riffles and steps in lowland streams in southern Ontario,Canada

Stream–subsurface water interaction induced by natural riffles and constructed riffles/steps was examined in lowland streams in southern Ontario, Canada. The penetration of stream water into the subsurface was analysed using hydrometric data, and the zone of > 10% stream water was calculated from a chemical mixing equation using tracer injection of bromide and background chloride concentrations. The constructed riffles studied induced more extensive hyporheic exchange than the natural riffles because of their steeper longitudinal hydraulic head gradients and coarser streambed sediments. The depth of > 10% stream water zone in a small and a large constructed riffle extended to > 0·2 m and > 1·4 m depths respectively. Flux and residence time distribution of hyporheic exchange were simulated in constructed riffles using MODFLOW, a finite‐difference groundwater flow model. Hyporheic flux and residence time distribution varied along the riffles, and the exchange occurring upstream from the riffle crest was small in flux and had a long residence time. In contrast, hyporheic exchange occurring downstream from the riffle crest had a relatively short residence time and accounted for 83% and 70% of total hyporheic exchange flow in a small and large riffle respectively. Although stream restoration projects have not considered the hyporheic zone, our data indicate that constructed riffles and steps can promote vertical hydrologic exchange and increase the groundwater–surface water linkage in degraded lowland streams. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of water transfer on interaction between surface water and groundwater in the lowland area of North China Plain

The contradiction between the freshwater shortage and the large demand of freshwater by irrigation was the key point in cultivated lowland area of North China Plain. Water transfer project brings fresh water from water resource‐rich area to water shortage area, which can in turn change the hydrological cycle in this region. Major ions and stable isotopes were used to study the temporal variations of interaction between surface water and groundwater in a hydrological year after a water transfer event in November 2014. Irrigation canal received transferred Yellow River, with 2.9% loss by evaporation during water transfer process. The effect of transferred water on shallow groundwater decreased with increasing distance from the irrigation canal. Pit pond without water transfer receives groundwater discharge. During dry season after water transfer event, shallow groundwater near the irrigation canal was recharged by lateral seepage and deep percolation of irrigation, whereas shallow groundwater far from irrigation canal was recharged by deep percolation of deep groundwater irrigation. Canal water lost by evaporation was 2.7–17.4%. Influence of water transfer gradually disappeared until March as the water usage of agricultural irrigation increased. In the dry season, groundwater discharged to irrigation canal and pond; 2.2–31.6% canal water and 11.3–20.0% pond water were lost by evaporation. In the rainy season (June to September), surface water was fed mainly by precipitation and surface run‐off, whereas groundwater was recharged by infiltration of precipitation. The two‐end member mix model showed that the mixing ratio of precipitation in pond and irrigation canal were 73–83.4% (except one pond with 28.1%) and 77.3–99.9%, respectively. Transferred water and precipitation were the important recharge sources for shallow groundwater, which decreased groundwater salinity in cultivated lowland area of North China Plain. With the temporary and spatial limitation of water transfer effects, increased water transfer amounts and frequency may be an effective way of mitigating regional water shortage. In addition, reducing the evaporation of surface water is also an important way to increase the utilization of transfer water.     

Comparison of non-parametric and parametric water temperature models on the Nivelle River,France

Abstract

Water temperature is an important abiotic variable in aquatic habitat studies and may be one of the factors limiting the potential fish habitat (e.g. salmonids) in a stream. Stream water temperatures are modelled using statistical approaches with air temperature and streamflow as exogenous variables in the Nivelle River, southern France. Two different models are used to model mean weekly maximum temperature data: a non-parametric approach, the k-nearest neighbours method (k-NN) and a parametric approach, the periodic autoregressive model with exogenous variables (PARX). The k-NN is a data-driven method, which consists of finding, at each point of interest, a small number of neighbours nearest to this value, and the prediction is estimated based on these neighbours. The PARX model is an extension of commonly-used autoregressive models in which parameters are estimated for each period within the years. Different variants of air temperature and flow are used in the model development. In order to test the performance of these models, a jack-knife technique is used, whereby model goodness of fit is assessed separately for each year. The results indicate that both models give good performances, but the PARX model should be preferred, because of its good estimation of the individual weekly temperatures and its ability to explicitly predict water temperature using exogenous variables.     

The legacy of river channel modification in wadeable,lowland rivers: Exploring overdeep rivers in England

Many lowland fluvial systems are suspected to possess a morphological legacy from a long history of channel modifications as a consequence of limited energy and sediment supply to facilitate recovery. We explore the extent of such modifications using a regionally extensive dataset of physical habitat surveys compiled by non-specialist surveyors. Representative photographs for each surveyed site were used to quality check channel width, depth and bed grain size information derived from Modular River Physical (MoRPh) surveys. Following checking, 1659 surveys were retained for analysis from alluvial sites, almost entirely in England. The photographs were also inspected for evidence of clear ‘overdeepening’ that would preclude frequent overtopping of the lower bank top. Results indicated that almost one-third of the sites were overdeepened, that width-to-depth ratios defined using the active bed width showed stronger discrimination of overdeepening than bankfull width, that highly statistically significant identification of overdeepened channels was possible in channels up to 10 m wide and with only minimal differences attributable to channel bed materials. Stepwise regression analysis estimated relationships between channel width-to-depth ratios and channel size for overdeepened and non-overdeepened channels. We demonstrate that large data sets collected by numerous non-specialist surveyors can, with careful filtering, generate statistically robust results of geomorphological value over areas larger than is otherwise practicable. Furthermore, we reveal a notable legacy of overdeepening in the analysed lowland rivers, which presents a significant ‘hydromorphological’ management challenge.     

River water quality response under hypothetical climate change scenarios in Tunga‐Bhadra river,India

Analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow by perturbing the climate inputs has been a concern for many authors in the past few years, but there are few analyses for the impacts on water quality. To examine the impact of change in climate variables on the water quality parameters, the water quality input variables have to be perturbed. The primary input variables that can be considered for such an analysis are streamflow and water temperature, which are affected by changes in precipitation and air temperature, respectively. Using hypothetical scenarios to represent both greenhouse warming and streamflow changes, the sensitivity of the water quality parameters has been evaluated under conditions of altered river flow and river temperature in this article. Historical data analysis of hydroclimatic variables is carried out, which includes flow duration exceedance percentage (e.g. Q90), single low‐flow indices (e.g. 7Q10, 30Q10) and relationships between climatic variables and surface variables. For the study region of Tunga‐Bhadra river in India, low flows are found to be decreasing and water temperatures are found to be increasing. As a result, there is a reduction in dissolved oxygen (DO) levels found in recent years. Water quality responses of six hypothetical climate change scenarios were simulated by the water quality model, QUAL2K. A simple linear regression relation between air and water temperature is used to generate the scenarios for river water temperature. The results suggest that all the hypothetical climate change scenarios would cause impairment in water quality. It was found that there is a significant decrease in DO levels due to the impact of climate change on temperature and flows, even when the discharges were at safe permissible levels set by pollution control agencies (PCAs). The necessity to improve the standards of PCA and develop adaptation policies for the dischargers to account for climate change is examined through a fuzzy waste load allocation model developed earlier. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A projection of future changes in summer precipitation and monsoon in East Asia

The future potential changes in precipitation and monsoon circulation in the summer in East Asia are projected using the latest generation of coupled climate models under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario (a medium emission scenario).The multi-model ensemble means show that during the period of 2010-2099,the summer precipitation in East Asia will increase and experience a prominent change around the 2040s,with a small increase (～1%) before the end of the 2040s and a large increase (～9%) afterward.This kind of two-stage evolution characteristic of precipitation change can be seen most clearly in North China,and then in South China and in the mid and lower Yangtze River Valley.In 2010-2099,the projected precipitation pattern will be dominated by a pattern of "wet East China" that explains 33.6% of EOF total variance.The corresponded time coefficient will markedly increase after the 2040s,indicating a great contribution from this mode to the enhanced precipitation across all East China.Other precipitation patterns that prevail in the current climate only contribute a small proportion to the total variance,with no prominent liner trend in the future.By the late 21st century,the monsoon circulation will be stronger in East Asia.At low level,this is due to the intensification of southwesterly airflow north of the anticyclone over the western Pacific and the SCS,and at high level,it is caused by the increased northeasterly airflow east of the anticyclone over South Asia.The enhanced monsoon circulation will also experience a two-stage evolution in 2010-2099,with a prominent increase (by ～0.6 m s-1) after the 2040s.The atmospheric water vapor content over East Asia will greatly increase (by ～9%) at the end of 21st century.The water vapor transported northward into East China will be intensified and display a prominent increase around the 2040s similar to other examined variables.These indicate that the enhanced precipitation over East Asia is caused by the increases in both monsoon circulation and water vapor,which is greatly different from South Asia.Both the dynamical and thermal dynamic variables will evolve consistently in response to the global warming in East Asia,i.e.,the intensified southwesterly monsoon airflow corresponding to the increased water vapor and southwesterly moisture transport.     

Recycled water for augmenting urban streams in mediterranean-climate regions: a potential approach for riparian ecosystem enhancement

Abstract

The scarcity of water in mediterranean-climate regions makes flow management in the rehabilitation of urban streams problematic. To explore potential applications of using recycled water for stream enhancement, we examine streams in the San Francisco Bay Area of California, USA, to characterize: (a) historic flow regimes at the regional scale, (b) potential unintended ecological effects and (c) specific issues related to recycled water. We analysed historic flow regimes in five basins, performed a streamflow augmentation experiment and monitored benthic macroinvertebrates above and below a recycled-water discharge. Streamflow augmentation with recycled water can provide improved aesthetics and aquatic habitat, but there are caveats to consider. Implications of inputs of recycled water in streams, whether direct or indirect, require detailed analysis of trade-offs. Augmentation is unlikely to harm the ecology of urban streams that are now just barely flowing perennially with pools of stagnant, contaminated water, and it may reduce public health problems from mosquitoes.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor M. Acreman

Citation Lawrence, J.E., Pavia, C.P.W., Kaing, S., Bischel, H.N., Luthy, R.G., and Resh, V.H., 2014. Recycled water for augmenting urban streams in mediterranean-climate regions: a potential approach for riparian ecosystem enhancement. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 488–501.     

River temperature regimes of England and Wales: spatial patterns,inter‐annual variability and climatic sensitivity

Identification of the most sensitive hydrological regions to a changing climate is essential to target adaptive management strategies. This study presents a quantitative assessment of spatial patterns, inter‐annual variability and climatic sensitivity of the shape (form) and magnitude (size) of annual river/stream water temperature regimes across England and Wales. Classification of long‐term average (1989–2006) annual river (air) temperature regime dynamics at 88 (38) stations within England and Wales identified spatially differentiable regions. Emergent river temperature regions were used to structure detailed hydroclimatological analyses of a subset of 38 paired river and air temperature stations. The shape and magnitude of air and water temperature regimes were classified for individual station‐years; and a sensitivity index (SI, based on conditional probability) was used to quantify the strength of associations between river and air temperature regimes. The nature and strength of air–river temperature regime links differed between regions. River basin properties considered to be static over the timescale of the study were used to infer modification of air–river temperature links by basin hydrological processes. The strongest links were observed in regions where groundwater contributions to runoff (estimated by basin permeability) were smallest and water exposure time to the atmosphere (estimated by basin area) was greatest. These findings provide a new large‐scale perspective on the hydroclimatological controls driving river thermal dynamics and, thus, yield a scientific basis for informed management and regulatory decisions concerning river temperature within England and Wales. © 2013 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.