Cursory seismic drift assessment for buildings in moderate seismicity regions

This paper outlines a methodology to assess the seismic drift of reinforced concrete buildings with limited structural and geotechnical information. Based on the latest and the most advanced research on predicting potential near-field and far field earthquakes affecting Hong Kong, the engineering response spectra for both rock and soil sites are derived. A new step-by-step procedure for displacement-based seismic hazard assessment of building structures is proposed to determine the maximum inter-storey drift demand for reinforced concrete buildings. The primary information required for this assessment is only the depth of the soft soil above bedrock and the height of the building. This procedure is further extended to assess the maximum chord rotation angle demand for the coupling beam of coupled shear wall or frame wall structures, which may be very critical when subjected to earthquake forces. An example is provided to illustrate calibration of the assessment procedure by using actual engineering structural models.     

A method to estimate intensity occurrence probabilities in low seismic activity regions

The estimation of site intensity occurrence probabilities in low seismic activity regions has been studied from different points of view. However, no method has been definitively established because several problems arise when macroseismic historical data are incomplete and the active zones are not well determined. The purpose of this paper is to present a method that estimates site occurrence probabilities and at the same time measures the uncertainties inherent in these probabilities in low activity regions. The region to be studied is divided into very broad seismic zones. An exponential intensity probability law is adjusted for each zone and the degree of uncertainty in the assumed incompleteness of the catalogue is evaluated for each intensity. These probabilities are used to establish what may be termed ‘prior site occurrence models’. A Bayesian method is used to improve ‘prior models’ and to obtain the ‘posterior site occurrence models’. Epicentre locations are used to recover spatial information lost in the prior broad zoning. This Bayesian correction permits the use of specific attenuation for different events and may take into account, by means of conservative criteria, epicentre location errors. Following Bayesian methods, probabilities are assumed to be random variables and their distribution may be used to estimate the degree of uncertainty arising from (a) the statistical variance of estimators, (b) catalogue incompleteness and (c) mismatch of data to prior assumptions such as Poisson distribution for events and exponential distribution for intensities. The results are maps of probability and uncertainty for each intensity. These maps exhibit better spatial definition than those obtained by means of simple, broad zones. Some results for Catalonia (NE of Iberian Peninsula) are shown.     

Convex set theory-based seismic hazard analysis of low seismicity area

Historical seismic data and seismogenic information are quite scarce for the low seismicity region, and modeling the parameters uncertainties based on probabilistic model is suspicious. The convex set theory-based seismic hazard analysis approach is proposed. The uncertainties of b value, the annual occurrence rate v and the upper bound magnitude M_u are described by the envelop bound convex model and the ellipsoidal bound convex model. Convex analysis method and China probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methodology are combined to perform a bound seismic hazard analysis for Ningbo city, China. The seismic intensity interval obtained using the bound seismic hazard analysis is compared with that calculated using China probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methodology. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the interval of seismic intensity is most sensitive to the annual occurrence rate v. Furthermore, the different convex models have little effect on the interval of seismic intensity.     

Loading protocols for European regions of low to moderate seismicity

Existing loading protocols for quasi-static cyclic testing of structures are based on recordings from regions of high seismicity. For regions of low to moderate seismicity they overestimate imposed cumulative damage demands. Since structural capacities are a function of demand, existing loading protocols applied to specimens representative of structures in low to moderate seismicity regions might underestimate structural strength and deformation capacity. To overcome this problem, this paper deals with the development of cyclic loading protocols for European regions of low to moderate seismicity. Cumulative damage demands imposed by a set of 60 ground motion records are evaluated for a wide variety of SDOF systems that reflect the fundamental properties of a large portion of the existing building stock. The ground motions are representative of the seismic hazard level corresponding to a 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years in a European moderate seismicity region. To meet the calculated cumulative damage demands, loading protocols for different structural types and vibration periods are developed. For comparison, cumulative seismic demands are also calculated for existing protocols and a set of records that was used in a previous study on loading protocols for regions of high seismicity. The median cumulative demands for regions of low to moderate seismicity are significantly less than those of existing protocols and records of high seismicity regions. For regions of low to moderate seismicity the new protocols might therefore result in larger strength and deformation capacities and hence in more cost-effective structural configurations or less expensive retrofit measures.     

Intraplate seismicity in the western Bohemian Massif (central Europe): A possible correlation with a paleoplate junction

Locations of the Eger Rift, Cheb Basin, Quaternary volcanoes, crustal earthquake swarms and exhalation centers of CO₂ and ³He of mantle origin correlate with the tectonic fabric of the mantle lithosphere modelled from seismic anisotropy. We suggest that positions of the seismic and volcanic phenomena, as well as of the Cenozoic sedimentary basins, correlate with a “triple junction” of three mantle lithospheres distinguished by different orientations of their tectonic fabric consistent within each unit. The three mantle domains most probably belong to the originally separated microcontinents – the Saxothuringian, Teplá-Barrandian and Moldanubian – assembled during the Variscan orogeny. Cenozoic extension reactivated the junction and locally thinned the crust and mantle lithosphere. The rigid part of the crust, characterized by the presence of earthquake foci, decoupled near the junction from the mantle probably during the Variscan. The boundaries (transitions) of three mantle domains provided open pathways for Quaternary volcanism and the ascent of ³He- and CO₂-rich fluids released from the asthenosphere. The deepest earthquakes, interpreted as an upper limit of the brittle–ductile transition in the crust, are shallower above the junction of the mantle blocks (at about 12 km) than above the more stable Saxothuringian mantle lithosphere (at about 20 km), probably due to a higher heat flow and presence of fluids.     

Intraplate seismicity in the western Bohemian Massif (central Europe): A possible correlation with a paleoplate junction

Locations of the Eger Rift, Cheb Basin, Quaternary volcanoes, crustal earthquake swarms and exhalation centers of CO₂ and ³He of mantle origin correlate with the tectonic fabric of the mantle lithosphere modelled from seismic anisotropy. We suggest that positions of the seismic and volcanic phenomena, as well as of the Cenozoic sedimentary basins, correlate with a “triple junction” of three mantle lithospheres distinguished by different orientations of their tectonic fabric consistent within each unit. The three mantle domains most probably belong to the originally separated microcontinents – the Saxothuringian, Teplá-Barrandian and Moldanubian – assembled during the Variscan orogeny. Cenozoic extension reactivated the junction and locally thinned the crust and mantle lithosphere. The rigid part of the crust, characterized by the presence of earthquake foci, decoupled near the junction from the mantle probably during the Variscan. The boundaries (transitions) of three mantle domains provided open pathways for Quaternary volcanism and the ascent of ³He- and CO₂-rich fluids released from the asthenosphere. The deepest earthquakes, interpreted as an upper limit of the brittle–ductile transition in the crust, are shallower above the junction of the mantle blocks (at about 12 km) than above the more stable Saxothuringian mantle lithosphere (at about 20 km), probably due to a higher heat flow and presence of fluids.     

中强地震活动区地震年平均发生率确定方法的比较

目前确定地震活动性参数的方法有2种,即潜在震源区划分法和格点空间光滑法.本文针对格点空间光滑法,重点介绍了高斯空间光滑法及其改进后的方法,并对比分析了这些方法的优缺点及适用性;然后以华中为研究区,分别采用高斯空间光滑法和潜在震源区法建立地震活动性模型计算地震年平均发生率,并利用概率地震危险性分析方法计算地震危险性,对比两种方法所得区划结果的差异并分析了引起差异的原因.结果表明:空间光滑法适用于中强地震活动区地震危险性或由背景地震引起的地震危险性的计算;潜在震源区划分法适用于考虑明确的发震构造的地震危险性.将2种方法相结合,综合考虑地震和已知构造信息是判断中强地震活动区地震危险性的可行方法.     

中国东北地区现今地震活动状态

2011年3月11日日本东海岸附近海域MW 9.0地震和2013年鄂霍次克海MS 8.2深源地震的发生,对中国东北地区地震活动产生了一定影响.现今中国东北地区地震活动特征如何,地震活动主体地区在哪里,经典的地震活动规律和特征是否仍在延续或发生了哪些变化,成为地震学家关注的问题.     

Analysis of central western Europe deformation using GPS and seismic data

The kinematic field of central western Europe is characterized by relatively small movements (around 1–2 mm/year) and diffuse seismicity with earthquakes occurring mostly in the shallow crust (within 15 km), prevalently concentrated along the Alps and the European Cenozoic Rift System (ECRIS). In order to study and constrain the current crustal kinematic field we reconstructed the velocity and the strain field using permanent GPS stations, belonging to different networks (AGNES, EUREF, REGAL, RGP). The 2D strain rate tensor has been calculated using the method of least-squares collocation. Our results show that the area of maximum compression is located along the Alpine chain, where maximum values of 7 ± 2 nstrain/year are found, while maximum extension is measured between the Armorican Massif and the Massif Central, where values of 4 ± 2 nstrain/year are reached.The earthquakes with M > 3.0, have been used to estimate the seismic strain rates, while the style of the seismic deformation was reconstructed from the fault plane solutions (FPS) available from the literature. Relatively high values of seismic strain rates (around 10 nstrain/year) are measured along the Alpine Chain and the ECRIS. Results obtained by geodetic and seismic data are quite in agreement and reflect the different tectonic evolution of the geological features characterizing the area of study. The orientation of the compressional geodetic and seismic strain axes are NW-SE in most of the area of study, on account of the action of plate boundary forces. A rotation of the same axes to N-S direction along the eastern Alps, possibly related to the Adria convergence, is found.     

广西及邻区地震活动特征

介绍了自公元288年以来广西及邻区地震活动的时间、空间、主压应力方向等特征，对未来地震趋势的正确判断具有一定的作用。     

Space-time variations of the shear wave attenuation field in the upper mantle of seismic and low seismicity areas

This paper deals with characteristics of the short period S-wave attenuation field in the rupture zones of 37 large and great earthquakes with M _s = 7.0–8.6, as well as in low seismicity areas. We estimate the effective quality factor from Sn and Lg coda envelopes in two time intervals (Q ₁ and Q ₂). The quantity Q ₁ is a measure of shear wave attenuation in the uppermost mantle, at depths of down to approximately 200–250 km, while Q ₂ is relevant to deeper horizons of the upper mantle. We studied variations in the attenuation field in the rupture zone of the 1950 Assam earthquake. We examined the parameters Q ₁, Q ₂, and Q ₁/Q ₂ as functions of the time ΔT elapsed after a large earthquake. It is shown that the parameter Q ₂ in rupture zones is practically independent of ΔT, while the quantities Q ₁ and Q ₁/Q ₂ increase until ΔT ～ 20–25 years, especially rapidly for normal, normal-oblique, and strike-slip earthquake mechanisms. This analysis provides evidence that, as ΔT increases, so does the quality factor in the upper mantle for shear waves. It is supposed that this is related to the rise of mantle fluids to the crust. Geodynamic mechanisms are discussed that can support a comparatively rapid “drying” of the upper mantle beneath earthquake rupture zones.     

The present-day seismicity variations in the Kuril-Kamchatka seismic zone

This study is concerned with seismicity variations in Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands for the period 1962–2009; the effects of large earthquakes on the seismicity of adjacent areas are taken into account. The 1997 Kronotskii earthquake was followed by seismicity decreases in most areas over Kamchatka, which is presumably related to decreased tectonic stresses. After the 2007 Simushir earthquake synchronization and periodicities in seismicity were identified, indicating increased instabilities and the likelihood of a large event in Kamchatka in the near future. The instability of seismic regions is discussed within the framework of the theory of nonequilibrium dynamical systems. We suggest successive phases in the occurrence of seismological precursors.     

Update of likelihood-based ground-motion model selection for seismic hazard analysis in western central Europe

Scherbaum et al. [(2004) Bull Seismolo Soc Am 94(6): 2164–2185] proposed a likelihood-based approach to select and rank ground-motion models for seismic hazard analysis in regions of low-seismicity. The results of their analysis were first used within the PEGASOS project [Abrahamson et al. (2002), In Proceedings of the 12 ECEE, London, 2002, Paper no. 633] so far the only application of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in Europe which was based on a SSHAC Level 4 procedure [(Budnitz et al. 1997, Recommendations for PSHA: guidance on uncertainty and use of experts. No. NUREG/CR-6372-V1). The outcome of this project have generated considerable discussion (Klügel 2005, Eng Geol 78:285–307, 2005b) Eng Geol 78: 285–307, (2005c) Eng Geol 82: 79–85 Musson et al. (2005) Eng Geol 82(1): 43–55]; Budnitz et al. (2005), Eng Geol 78(3–4): 285–307], a central part of which is related to the issue of ground-motion model selection and ranking. Since at the time of the study by Scherbaum et al. [(2004.) Bull Seismolo Soc Am 94(6): 2164–2185], only records from one earthquake were available for the study area, here we test the stability of their results using more recent data. Increasing the data set from 12 records of one earthquake in Scherbaum et al. [(2004) Bull Seismolo Soc Am 94(6): 2164–2185] to 61 records of 5 earthquakes, which have mainly occurred since the publication of the original study, does not change the set of the three top-ranked ground-motion models [Abrahamson and Silva (1997) Seismolo Res Latt 68(1): 94–127; Lussou et al. (2001) J Earthquake Eng 5(1):13–33; Berge-Thierry et al. (2003) Bull Seismolog Soc Am 95(2): 377–389. Only for the lower-ranked models do we obtain modifications in the ranking order. Furthermore, the records from the Waldkirch earthquake (Dec, 5th, 2004, M _w = 4.9) enabled us to develop a new stochastic model parameter set for the application of Campbell’s [(2003) Bull Seismolo Soc Am 93(3): 1012–1033] hybrid empirical model to SW Germany and neighbouring regions.     

Evidence for periodic seismicity in the inner Aegean seismic zone

The most complete and reliable data of strong (M _s6.5), shallow (h<70 km) earthquakes which occurred in the inner Aegean seismic zone have been utilized to describe its seismicity time variation during 1800–1986 by two independent statistical models. The first is a sequentially stationary model of seismicity rates which shows that intervals of low seismicity rate, lasting for some 37 years, alternate with high rate intervals of 8–12 years duration. The second model is a statistical model according which seismic energy released within 5-year time windows approximates a harmonic curve within a period of about 50 years. This model is in agreement with the notion that the time series of strong earthquake occurrences in the inner Aegean seismic zone consists of a random (shocks withM _s=6.5–6.8) and a nonrandom component (M _s6.9). Maxima and minima of the harmonic curve coincide with the high and low rate intervals, respectively. A model of regional stationary accumulation of thermal stresses along certain seismic belts and their cyclic relaxation may explain this periodicity.     

Comparative analysis of the seismic risk in sites of different seismicity

Four sites (a, b, c, d) are considered of differing seismicity. The calculations, for two different buildings on each site, consisted of:

• 1. The total monetary cost as a function of the design seismic coefficient c.
• 2. The marginal cost of a saved life, ΔD/ΔL, also depending on c.
• 3. The ratios between the design seismic coefficients in the various sites, c_d/c_a, c_d/c_b, c_d/c_c, that lead to the same marginal cost ΔD/ΔL in all sites.

The marginal cost ΔD/ΔL turns out to be highly sensitive to uncertainties, but the other ratios are scarcely influenced by the uncertainties met in analysing the problem. This would suggest the adoption of a rationalized principle for comparing the levels of severity in the Codes for sites with differing degrees of seismicity. If a criterion for evaluating indirect cost due to damage or collapse is fixed for each building and each site the values of c corresponding to minimum monetary cost are not strongly influenced by the said uncertainties. This would make it possible to look into the problem of the minimum levels of severity in the Codes. Of course, this assumes that the levels of severity should always be higher than those corresponding to the minimum monetary cost.     

Spatially smoothed seismicity modeling of seismic hazard in Slovenia

A progress report on the mapping effort for construction of a peak ground acceleration (PGA) map of Slovenia for 475-year return period for rock and firm soil is presented. The methodology is similar to that recently applied in Central and Eastern United States. It is based on historical seismicity spatially smoothed to different length scales. The procedure is described by Frankel (1995). He uses the characteristic earthquake recurrence relationship and in his firt version four different seismicity models. We also use four seismicity models. But instead of characteristic earthquake recurrence, we use the doubly truncated exponential magnitude-frequency relationship; no evidence of characteristic earthquakes in Slovenia has been found yet. Three of our models are similar to Frankel's first three models. Model 1 uses spatially smoothed activity rate based on magnitude 3.7 and above events since 1880. Model 2 deals with spatially smoothed activity rate based on magnitude 5.0 abd above events since 1690. Model 3 smoothes the observed activity over the entire region; it represents a uniform seismicity zone. Frankel skipped this model in his latest version (Frankel et al. 1996). In model 4, we introduce a new approach of calculating seismic activity rate taking into account released seismic energy. The ground motion attenuation model of Pugliese and Sabetta (1989) is used for all models. PGA maps for models 1, 2, 3 and 4 have been calculated, and a weighted mean map derived from them. A map of model 1 has been compared with the corresponding source zone map; the two maps do not differ significantly. A worst-case map derived from all four models has also been produced.     

我国西部地震群体活动特征研究

在对我国西部本世纪第五个地震活跃幕以来地震群体活动时空强演变规律回顾的基础上,研究了近１～２年中强地震的分布特点,结合大地形变的演变状况,对本区地震活动进行了研究,并认为本区处于本活跃幕末的翘尾活动阶段。     

基于现代地震资料确定汾渭地震带分区及其地震活动性参数

汾渭地震带是我国东部一个强震活动带,其分段特征及地震活动趋势一直是研究热点,过去利用历史地震和地震地质资料,已得到许多有价值的结果.本文以第五代区划图中最新划分的汾渭地震带为研究区域,收集整理1970至2010年ML2.0～5.0级的现代地震资料,计算中小地震能量密度值,定量分析了该带中小地震空间分布图像特征,据此,确定了汾渭地震带的分区,并给出了各分区的地震活动性参数.对比分析表明,对汾渭地震带进行精细分区,可以更加真实地反映区域的地震活动水平,同一地震带的精细分区,可得到代表不同地震活动水平的地震活动性参数.同时,本研究也为地震带的精细划分提供了一种定量分析方法,对地震区划、工程场地地震安全性评价、地震活动中长期预测均有重要意义.