Socio-economic implications of the KwaZulu-Natal sardine run for local indigenous communities

The economic and social effects of the annual sardine run on the indigenous community on the south coast of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, were assessed using data gathered from questionnaires and personal interviews with 329 members of the community. Their knowledge, perceptions and attitudes about the sardine run, as well as their level of involvement in, and the financial benefits accrued from it, were also assessed. Although around two-thirds of those interviewed were aware of the sardine run and just over half participated in it, only some 17% benefited financially from it. However, despite this low level of participation, the financial benefit to the community could amount to R17–18 million, and as much as R34–54 million if a multiplier effect of 2–3 is applied. There was a high level (over 70%) of willingness to learn more about the event, and to become more involved in training exercises that would allow local people to take advantage of opportunities arising from the sardine run. It is recommended that management strategies and development plans should be implemented towards assisting the indigenous communities to become more involved in the sardine run.     

Are African penguins worth saving? The ecotourism value of the Boulders Beach colony

Populations of the African penguin Spheniscus demersus have decreased dramatically over the past century, due in part to competition for food with commercial fisheries, and the species is now endangered as a result. Economic arguments are used to favour fisheries over the needs of penguins, but penguins have direct value to the South African economy thanks to penguin-based tourism at several breeding colonies. We estimated the value of African penguins at the most important tourist site for African penguins: Boulders on the Cape Peninsula, South Africa. As a mainland colony close to Cape Town, Boulders is accessible to large numbers of visitors; gate revenues in 2009/2010 alone were R14.5 million (US$2 million). A zonal travel-cost analysis revealed an average consumer surplus among Cape Town residents of some R20 per visit. Penguin-based tourism thus forms an integral part of the R25 billion Western Cape tourism sector. Given that the future survival of this valuable resource is dependent, among others, on the availability of sufficient prey, competition with South Africa's purse-seine fishing fleet should be limited through management strategies that lessen the potential effects of fishing on prey available at the local scale.     

The 2005 KwaZulu-Natal sardine run survey sheds new light on the ecology of small pelagic fish off the east coast of South Africa

Despite much public awareness surrounding the annual migration of sardine Sardinops sagax northward along the east coast of South Africa in winter each year, relatively little research effort has been expended to improve understanding of the ‘sardine run’. For this reason, a dedicated multidisciplinary survey, timed to coincide with the annual sardine run, was conducted off the East Coast in June and July of 2005. The major objective of the survey was to estimate the biomass of sardine off the East Coast during the run, and to compare this with biomass estimates collected during previous surveys conducted in this area during the late 1980s when the South African sardine population was at a considerably smaller size. We also collected data on the distribution of sardine and other small pelagic fish species and their eggs, the biological characteristics of sardine during the run, and data on the hydrography (temperature and currents) and lower trophic levels (phytoplankton and zooplankton) of the region. Results suggest that the biomass of sardine off the East Coast in winter remains relatively small and consistent, regardless of overall sardine population size. The narrow continental shelf to the east of Port Alfred, which is dominated offshore by the fast-flowing warm Agulhas Current, constrains the amount of suitable habitat for sardine and other clupeoids such as anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus, West Coast round herring Etrumeus whiteheadi and East Coast round herring Etrumeus teres, and hence precludes these species from attaining a high biomass in this region. Additionally, primary and secondary productivity levels are much lower than elsewhere on the western and eastern Agulhas Bank off the south coast of South Africa, suggesting that the sardine run is not a feeding migration. A previous hypothesis that the run is mainly a result of an expansion of the distributional range of these fish as conditions become favourable in winter due to sporadic cooling off the East Coast is also not entirely supported by results from the survey. It is suggested that a migration for the purposes of spawning off this coast when conditions become favourable is a more likely incentive for sardine to undertake this arduous journey, despite increased predation and poor feeding conditions.     

Reef fish display station-keeping and ranging behaviour in the Pondoland Marine Protected Area on the east coast of South Africa

This study assessed the role of the Pondoland Marine Protected Area (MPA) in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa by evaluating retention versus ‘spillover’ of exploited fishery species that were tagged in a 400 km² no-take zone of the MPA. From April 2006 to July 2010, 2 124 fish comprising 36 species were tagged in the MPA, with an overall recapture rate of 23%. Findings for four important species (Polysteganus praeorbitalis, Chrysoblephus puniceus, Epinephelus andersoni and Epinephelus marginatus) are presented. Recapture rates ranged from 8% to 60% and time-at-liberty from 0 to 1 390 d. Individuals of all four species displayed highly localised station-keeping behaviour. For all four species, the 95th percentile of intra-study site movements was <750 m (linear distance) and many recaptures were within 250 m of the release site, showing that some fish spend most of their time in the MPA's no-take zone. However, some fish moved beyond the boundary of this zone in a north-easterly direction (range 3–1 059 km), where they would be available to the boat-based fishery in KwaZulu-Natal. The combination of resident individuals with some with ranging behaviour suggests that the MPA can provide a conservation role for these species, while exporting some individuals into nearby fisheries.     

Influence of the annual sardine run on catches of large sharks in the protective gillnets off KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa,and the occurrence of sardine in shark diet

Shark catches in the protective nets set off the beaches of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa, are strongly influenced by the sardine run, the winter influx of shoals of Sardinops sagax from the south-west. The effect of the sardine run, which is highly variable from year to year, is greatest in June and July at beaches south of Durban. Total annual shark catch and effort are presented for the period 1952–2005, and total monthly shark catch on the KZN south coast for the period May–August, 1965–2005. Measures to reduce catches of sharks associated with the sardine run have been introduced and have been increasingly successful. Reliable species-specific catch data are available for the period 1978–2005 only. For this period, the spatio-temporal distribution of each of 14 species of shark and the frequency of occurrence of sardine in their diets is documented. Occurrence varies according to species, as does the apparent influence of the sardine run on shark distribution. During June and July on the KZN south coast, sardine were found in the diet of all but two species and frequency of occurrence was 40% or greater in eight species. The presence of copper or bronze whaler sharks Carcharhinus brachyurus in KZN waters appears to be strongly associated with the sardine run, as does that of certain life-history stages of dusky sharks C. obscurus. Spinner sharks C. brevipinna and smooth hammerhead sharks Sphyrna lewini are caught in greater numbers in summer than in winter, but appear to shift their spatial distribution seasonally to feed on sardine.     

Broad-scale distribution patterns of sardine and their predators in relation to remotely sensed environmental conditions during the KwaZulu-Natal sardine run

The annual movement of South African sardine Sardinops sagax up the east coast of South Africa, known as the ‘sardine run’, was investigated using data from aerial surveys for the period 1988–2005 and compared with remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll a data. Sardine sighting rates were highest within the Waterfall Bluff Bight off the Eastern Cape Coast, where conditions appeared to be most favourable. Sardine and predator sightings decreased significantly northwards of Mdoni on the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) coast, whereas the proportion of nearshore sightings increased. The causal mechanism for this inshore concentration is suggested to be the influx of warm Agulhas Current water from the Durban Eddy that forces sardine shoreward. Cape gannet Morus capensis, common dolphin Delphinus capensis and sardine distributions were associated, and there was an association between SST and sardine and predator distributions. There was a marked increase in bottlenose dolphin Tursiops aduncus sightings upon commencement of the sardine run, with these dolphins being consid-ered to be a ‘migratory’ stock that enters KZN waters every winter.     

Ecosystem considerations of the KwaZulu-Natal sardine run

The annual winter sardine run along the South African east coast impacts the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) coastal system in a variety of ways. These include ecological impacts, such as enrichment of a largely oligotrophic environment, competition between migrant sardine Sardinops sagax, other migrant and resident small pelagic fish species, and interactions with predators, as well as the socio-economic impacts of the sardine run on the local people. Enrichment of KZN coastal waters with organic nitrogen contained within the sardine is compared with alternative sources of nitrogen such as upwelling, river, sewage and stormwater runoff, and groundwater discharge. The sardine run appears to contribute most nitrogen to this system—96 000 t compared to 500–3 300 t for each of the other significant sources at trophic level 2, although upwelling estimates are extremely wide. Nonetheless, the majority of surviving sardine, their young and predators return southwards, suggesting that the nett export of nitrogen to KZN waters during the run is likely to be of a similar order of magnitude as that from other sources. Further, whereas the sardine supply of nitrogen is exclusively during winter, the bulk of the riverine input is in summer, thus ensuring that nitrogen supply in the region is maintained at fairly constant levels throughout the year. Competition for food between small pelagic fish is minimised by resource partitioning, but further dietary data are needed for resident species. Although interactions between sardine and top predators must exist, further studies are needed to confirm links between top predator life cycles and the sardine run. The estimated value of sardine as a tourist spectacle is compared to that from a seasonal beach-seine or boat-based purse-seine fishery for this species. Whereas the estimated value of the sardine as a tourist attraction appears substantially higher than could be derived from catching them, the small-scale beach-seine fishery itself draws tourists and also provides limited, seasonal employment opportunities.     

Socio-economic aspects of the tiger shark diving industry within the Aliwal Shoal Marine Protected Area,South Africa

Understanding socio-economic aspects of the tiger shark Galeocerdo cuvier diving industry, including information on participant expectations, experiences and expenditure, is necessary for the effective management of the Aliwal Shoal Marine Protected Area on the east coast of South Africa. Between January and December 2007, a total of 2 133 tiger shark dives was conducted by 1 065 divers (95% CI = 946-1 198). Data were collected by means of the administration of a semi-structured survey questionnaire to 197 (18.6%) dive participants. Respondents indicated that the direct value of tiger shark diving to the Aliwal Shoal region was R12 405 274 (95% CI = R10 777 324-14 228 541). A total of 1 000 Monte Carlo simulations was used to estimate confidence intervals. On a ranking from one (poor) to five (excellent), the average participant response to overall quality of dive and standard of dive operator was 4.6 and 4.7 respectively. The majority of divers (98.0%) observed a tiger shark, at an average of four per dive. Although tiger sharks approached to an average distance of 1.6 m from divers, the majority (95.9%) felt safe and enjoyed the experience. The majority of interviewees (88.5%) supported the use of chumming for a closer ‘tiger shark experience’.     

Abundance and distribution of avian and marine mammal predators of sardine observed during the 2005 KwaZulu-Natal sardine run survey

Opportunistic observations to determine the relative abundance and distribution of marine mammal and seabird predators of sardine Sardinops sagax were carried out during a dedicated multidisciplinary research survey off the South African east coast in June and July of 2005 that was timed to coincide with the annual sardine run. Associations between different predator species, between predators and clupeoids, and between predators and oceanographic variables, were examined. Species’ distributions were primarily separated by latitude and distance from shore. Bryde's whale Balaenoptera edeni, African penguin Spheniscus demersus, Cape cormorant Phalacrocorax capensis and West Coast round herring Etrumeus whiteheadi were predominantly found in the cool southern part of the survey region. Peak sardine run activity occurred within 4 km of shore at the northward limit of a strip of cool water (<21 °C) stretching along the East Coast. The principal predators associated with this activity were common dolphins Delphinus capensis and Cape gannets Morus capensis, and their nearshore distribution was associated with sardine and East Coast round herring E. teres. Few clupeoids were encountered along the KwaZulu-Natal continental shelf, although patches of high sardine abundance were recorded near the shore immediately south of Durban. It is clear that during the 2005 survey the sardine run terminated in this region, probably as a result of the nearshore intrusion of warm water from the Agulhas Current.     

Spatial variability in branchial basket meristics and morphology of southern African sardine Sardinops sagax

We examined spatial variability in meristic and morphological characteristics of the branchial basket of sardine Sardinops sagax collected from four geographical regions around the southern African coast, namely Namibia and the South African west, south and east coasts. Our analysis tested the hypothesis of three putative sardine stocks off South Africa, one in each of the three geographical regions. We therefore collected fish data from Namibia to compare with South Africa, because sardine from the two countries are considered to be separate stocks. Morphometric measurements (gill arch length and gill raker spacing) and meristic data (number of gill rakers) were collected from the left side of the first gill arch from a total of 377 sardine, approximately equally divided between the regions. A multivariate general linear model with caudal length as covariate was used to assess differences among fish from the four regions and significant differences were observed, although not always consistently across all fish size classes. Small South Coast sardine had shorter gill arches than small West Coast sardine, but adults had gill arches of similar length, longer than those from Namibia and the East Coast. Small sardine from the South Coast had fewer gill rakers than small sardine from the West Coast, but larger fish had similar numbers of gill rakers, significantly more than sardine from Namibia and the East Coast. Sardine from the West and South coasts had similar gill raker spacings, which were smaller than those of fish from the East Coast and Namibia. Despite spatially and particularly temporally unbalanced sampling, we consider that these differences provide evidence of spatial variation in Benguela sardine phenotype and that it would support the hypothesis of discrete sardine stocks off Namibia and South Africa. The results are consistent with the hypothesis of three sardine stocks within the southern Benguela.     

Biological characteristics of sardine caught by the beach-seine fishery during the KwaZulu-Natal sardine run

Catches of sardine Sardinops sagax made by the beach-seine fishery off the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) coast during the annual winter sardine run have been sampled intermittently since 1951, and a substantial amount of data on various biological characteristics of sardine caught off KZN now exists. Information on length frequency distributions, mean caudal length (CL), length–mass relationships, condition factor (CF), age distributions, sex ratio, gonad maturity and diet have been collated and are presented in this paper. Sardine caught off the KZN coast during the past six decades had a mean CL of 17.4 cm (SD 2.0) and have shown a significant increasing trend in mean CL through time; had substantially lower mass-at-length compared to fish that did not participate in the sardine run; have shown two distinct periods of decrease in CF between 1979 and 2005; ranged in age from 1 to 7 years but were numerically dominated by younger fish (1-, 2- or 3-year-olds); had a 1:1 sex ratio and gonads that were predominantly actively developing and undergoing maturation and vitellogenesis; and had a diet dominated by zooplankton, primarily calanoid and harpactacoid copepods and fish eggs. These characteristics, together with some information on meristic and morphological characteristics of sardine caught off KZN, are compared to characteristics of sardine from elsewhere off South Africa's coast to assess the possibility that the former may be a distinct stock or a functionally discrete adult assemblage. Significant differences in characteristics such as CF, vertebral count and body shape were found, supporting the hypothesis that KZN sardine represent a distinct stock or a functionally discrete adult assemblage. However, small sample sizes and plausible alternative explanations for these differences weaken, but do not invalidate, this hypothesis, and further work is needed to answer this question.     

Diet of the Cape fur seal Arctocephalus pusillus pusillus at the Robberg Peninsula,Plettenberg Bay,and implications for local fisheries

Cape fur seals Arctocephalus pusillus pusillus were harvested to extirpation on the Robberg Peninsula, Plettenberg Bay, on the south-east coast of South Africa, between the 17th and early 20th centuries. Seals returned to Robberg in small numbers during the early 1990s and their numbers subsequently increased. We studied the diet of this increasing population using faecal (scat) sampling to determine: the species composition and size of prey in the diet of Cape fur seals at Robberg; to explore temporal variation in the diet; and to investigate the potential for competition between seals and the fisheries around Plettenberg Bay. Of the 445 scats collected, 90% contained hard prey remains and 15 teleost prey species were represented in the 3 127 otoliths that could be identified. The seals’ most important prey species in terms of numerical abundance, frequency of occurrence and mass in the diet, were anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus, sardine Sardinops sagax, horse mackerel Trachurus capensis, sand tongue-fish Cynoglossus capensis and shallow-water hake Merluccius capensis (in decreasing order of importance for numerical abundance). The proportion of anchovy in the diet increased during the study period (2003–2008), whereas the proportion of sardine decreased. The estimated average annual consumption of sardine by seals was higher than the average annual catch made by purse-seine fisheries in this area, suggesting resource competition between seals and purse-seiners, especially in the light of continuing growth of seal numbers in the area. However, direct competition between seals and linefisheries appeared to be minimal. Scat sampling of Cape fur seals holds potential to serve a useful and cost effective indicator of temporal changes in sardine abundance.     

Willingness to pay for marine-based tourism in the Ponta do Ouro Partial Marine Reserve,Mozambique

Marine and coastal ecosystems face widespread degradation largely because market failure hides the economic value of the goods and services they provide. Marine protected areas (MPAs) can serve as structures that ensure the continued functioning of marine and coastal ecosystem goods and services. Yet, to be effective and sustainable, MPAs must be able to prove their economic worth and generate revenue. User-fee systems are used commonly to partially finance multi-use MPAs. This study applies contingent valuation as a method of economic valuation within an MPA in southern Mozambique. Using a payment card and questionnaire from November 2012 to April 2013, this study determined the willingness to pay (WTP) of three user groups for access to the Ponta do Ouro Partial Marine Reserve. The study also investigated the potential for the reserve to increase revenues for conservation through the implementation of a user fee for marine-based activities. Probit and ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions were used to determine the effects of various independent variables on WTP. The OLS model found income, African residency and environmental awareness to be significant factors that influenced visitors' WTP for access to the reserve. The mean WTP was R 43.75 (South African rands) per person per day. Using data supplied by the reserve management, conservative estimated annual revenues based on the implementation of this fee amount ranged between R 1.46 million and R 3.3 million.     

Testing for the occurrence of pilchard herpesvirus (PHV) in South African sardine Sardinops sagax

Catches of South African sardine Sardinops sagax have declined in recent years from about 200 000 t harvested annually during the period 2002–2006 to less than 100 000 t. Consequently, some companies are now importing sardine from sources elsewhere in the world to meet local demand for canned sardine and bait. This importation has the potential for the introduction of sardine pathogens, in particular the pilchard herpesvirus (PHV), which could have a negative impact on the currently small South African sardine population. The aims of the current study were to determine whether PHV is present in the local sardine population and to assess the extent to which sardine is being imported into the country and whether imported fish are from countries where the virus is known to be endemic. Fish sampled from South Africa’s western (n = 150), southern (n = 182) and eastern (n = 96) putative stocks of S. sagax were analysed for the presence of PHV using real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). The origin and amount of potentially infected material imported into South Africa during the period 2010–2014 was also assessed. None of the South African sardine collected during this study tested positive for PHV, suggesting that active PHV was not prevalent in the local population of S. sagax at the time of this study. Between 56 000 and 71 000 t of frozen sardine was imported annually into South Africa from countries where S. sagax occurs, including some from areas (Australia and New Zealand) where sardine infection by PHV is known to be endemic. Hence, it is plausible that the PHV pathogen, capable of perpetuating infections in local sardine populations, could be imported into South Africa along with the importation of frozen sardine. Should local sardine be naïve to the virus, as suggested by this study, then the population is at risk of infection and precautions against such must be taken.     

Spatial variation in meristic and morphometric characteristics of sardine Sardinops sagax around the coast of southern Africa

Spatial variability in phenotypic characteristics within a fish population may be used to infer the existence of multiple stocks, and knowledge of the population structure of exploited species is important for their sustainable management. In this study we investigated geographic variability in meristic (vertebral count) and morphometric (body shape) characteristics of sardine Sardinops sagax from three southern African regions: Namibia, the South African west coast, and the South African south coast. There were significant regional differences in vertebral counts, with Namibian fish tending to have more vertebrae than South African fish, but with no difference between sardine off the South African west and south coasts. Body shape was characterised using morphometric landmarks, and shape changes were investigated using geometric morphometrics, with influences on fish shape assessed using multivariate regressions. To remove the effects of allometry, the 22 shape variables (represented by Procrustes coordinates) were regressed against fish size (represented by centroid size). There was a significant allometric effect, which was removed by using the residuals of these regressions in further analyses. A multivariate multiple regression was applied to the 22 size-corrected shape variables and to three covariates: condition factor, stomach fullness and fat stage. The significant influence of these covariates was removed by using the residuals from this regression in a canonical variate analysis, where corrected shape variables were classified in relation to region, year and sex. The Mahalanobis distances from the canonical variate analysis differed significantly for most combinations of classifier variables, with clear separations among the three regions. Sardinops sagax off Namibia had thicker bodies and more contracted tail regions than South African fish, whereas S. sagax off the South African south coast had thinner bodies and smaller heads than those off the west coast. These results support the hypothesis of multiple sardine stocks around southern Africa.     

Transdisciplinary co-operation for an ecosystem approach to fisheries: A case study from the South African sardine fishery

Integrative approaches that involve natural and social scientists are needed to manage fisheries, but these are difficult to achieve. The process of developing a prototype, knowledge-based, electronic decision support tool for the South African sardine Sardinops sagax fishery provided a platform for fostering collaboration and achieving active participation of many stakeholders. The aim of the decision support tool is to assist managers in evaluating how effectively an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF) has been implemented for this fishery. The collaborative process involved a series of meetings during which knowledge was elicited from fisheries scientists, social scientists, resource managers and fishing industry representatives. Conceptualisations of the different stakeholder perspectives were developed in terms of objectives and indicators following the hierarchical tree approach recommended by FAO. This paper describes the collaborative process. Hierarchies of objectives, indicators and data sets for the human dimension of an EAF in the South African sardine fishery are introduced. The value of a transdisciplinary approach towards an EAF in South Africa is discussed.     

Overview of the KwaZulu-Natal sardine run

This paper provides an introduction to, and overview of, the natural phenomenon known as the KwaZulu-Natal sardine run. Previous literature on this topic and hypotheses about the reasons why, and the mechanisms how, the run occurs are briefly synthesised and described. Papers contributing to this suite that detail more recent work on a variety of aspects of the sardine run, ranging from physical oceanography through sardine biology and ecology to socio-economic and ecological consequences, are outlined. Such studies will lead to improved understanding of the factors that regulate the timing and intensity of the run, which may permit predictions of whether it will occur, when fish will arrive on the KZN beaches, and how long it will persist. Such predictions would have substantial benefits for this ecologically and economically important event.     

Towards the declaration of a large marine protected area: a subtidal ichthyofaunal survey of the Pondoland coast in the Eastern Cape,South Africa

A subtidal marine ichthyofaunal survey was carried out on shallow reefs (1–30m deep) in the Pondoland region between the Mtamvuna River and Port St Johns in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. The purpose of this survey was to provide the baseline data required for the zonation of a large marine protected area proposed for the region. Survey work was carried out in May and June during 2002 and 2003. A seafloor map based on earlier seismic-reflection profiling data, coupled with fishers' co-ordinates of known reefs in the area, was used to plan the survey. An underwater visual census (UVC), using the point-count method, assessed fish diversity, relative abundance and size structure. During the UVC, a total of 261 point fish-counts, covering an area of 14 288m², was completed. A total of 138 fish species from 49 different families was identified and a relatively high proportion of endemic species (26.6%) were recorded. As a result of the turbid conditions encountered south of Mbotyi, numbers and diversity of fish species observed declined with increasing latitude. Endemic sparid linefish species, which are overe-xploited in other areas, were particularly abundant in this region, and a number of new range distributions of various species were recorded during the survey. The results of this survey contributed towards the zonation of the Pondoland Marine Protected Area, which was proclaimed in June 2004.     

Ecosystem service values of sediment generation and entrapment by marginal coral reefs at Sodwana Bay,South Africa

Coral reefs provide a multitude of goods and services, some of which are difficult to value due to their intangible nature and the absence of markets to ascribe their relative worth. The coral reefs of Sodwana Bay on the northeast coast of South Africa provide several ecological goods and services, of which only two are considered here: namely, sediment generation and sediment entrapment. Both are deemed essential to the functioning of the Sodwana Bay economy. The replacement-cost method was used to estimate the annual financial cost of sediment provided to the study area if it were replaced by dredging. Sediment generation by the coral reefs was valued at R2.6–R4.8 million, and sediment entrapment valued at R71.8–R84.6 million, totalling between R74.4 million and R89.4 million (≈$5.6–$6.7 million, at R13.38/US$1) per year.     

The KwaZulu-Natal sardine run: shoal distribution in relation to nearshore environmental conditions, 1997–2007

The nearshore presence of sardine Sardinops sagax on the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) coast was investi-gated using sightings data collected by the KZN Sharks Board from 1997 to 2007. The spatio-temporal distribution of sardine was described in relation to that of their predators and to environmental conditions, and subjected to generalised linear model (GLM) and generalised additive model (GAM) analyses. Variables describing spatio-temporal conditions performed best in the models (r² = 0.52) with seasonal effects, specifically June and July, making the greatest contribution towards sardine presence. The contribution of the years 2003, 2006 and 2007, and the KZN North Coast, was signif-icantly lower. The predator variables were highly significant (r² = 0.48) with Cape gannets Morus capensis, followed by the sharks/gamefish and common dolphins Delphinus capensis, being most closely associated with sardine presence. Environmental variables were not as influential in the GLM models (r² = 0.23), but some variables were useful in describing conditions favouring sardine presence, namely calm current conditions, light north-westerly land breezes and stable atmospheric conditions. Increasing sea surface temperature (SST), moderate north to south currents, large swells and turbid water had a negative impact upon sardine presence. North-easterly and north-westerly winds and north to south currents had a cooling effect upon nearshore SSTs, whereas south-easterly winds and increasing air temperatures caused nearshore warming. Results are discussed in the context of developing an understanding of the mechanisms that govern fine-scale movements of sardine shoals during the KZN sardine run, with a view to predicting such movements.