Role of sea surface temperature and rainfall in determining the stock and fishery of the common octopus (Octopus vulgaris,Mollusca, Cephalopoda) in Tunisia

Octopus (Octopus vulgaris, Mollusca, Cephalopoda) is an important and valuable fishery resource on the eastern and southern coasts of Tunisia, but its landings are highly variable. This paper explores the effect of environment on octopus catch per unit effort (CPUE) during a 12‐year period, through correlation analyses and the incorporation into surplus production models of sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall data collected during cold (January–May) and hot (August–October) seasons. CLIMPROD software was used to select the appropriate model and fit it to the fishery and environment data. In both seasons, SST significantly contributed to CPUE variability; fishery production was influenced positively by cold season SST but negatively by hot season SST. Due to a poor fit with cold season data, the impact of rainfall was analysed only for the hot season, during which it has a positive effect on production. Results are discussed in view of the life‐cycle of octopus and the dynamics of the Tunisian fishery. This first study of octopus variability in Tunisia highlights the necessity to incorporate environmental influence into stock assessment and management advice.     

The potential use of predictions of recruitment success in the management of the South African anchovy resource

In the existing management procedure for the South African anchovy Engraulis capensis resource, an initial Total Allowable Catch (TAC) is set at the start of the fishing season in January, before the year's recruitment of 0-year-old fish, an important component of the catch, is known. Recruitment is therefore assumed to be equal to the observed median. This TAC may be revised in May or June, after the actual recruitment has been estimated. This procedure incorporates a risk that, if recruitment is below the median, the stock could be adversely depleted before the mid-year recruitment survey. A simulation approach is used in this paper to assess the possible benefits, in terms of average annual catch and interannual fluctuations in catch, of three different methods of predicting recruitment earlier in the season, if such methods were available. The results show that the average annual catch could be increased theoretically by up to 48 per cent if a very precise prediction (CV = 0,1) could be made at the start of the fishing season. In practice, more modest improvements of 21 per cent by prerecruit surveys undertaken in March each year, or 16 per cent by means of a two-class ordinal prediction with 70 per cent success, may be attainable. However, these improvements would result in increased interannual fluctuations in catch, a situation which may be detrimental to the fishing industry.     

An analysis of yield variability from three harvesting strategies in the South African anchovy fishery,under conditions of randomly fluctuating recruitment success

An age-structured population model was used to examine the variability of yield created by randomly fluctuating recruitment success in the South African anchovy Engraulis capensis stock. Three different harvesting strategies were examined: (1) constant age-specific pattern of fishing mortality, (2) constant quota with effort limitation and (3) annual quota adjustments by means of an F _msy procedure. Variable recruitment was generated by a stochastic stock-recruit relationship, and mean yields, mean spawner biomasses and probability distributions of yield were calculated at each exploitation level after 150 projections from the population structure of anchovy in 1981. Under conditions of constant fishing mortality, the variability of yield increased continuously as the exploitation rate was increased. The maximum average yield (MAY) is the stochastic equivalent of the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of deterministic models, but an attempt to sustain this MAY by a constant quota resulted in a very high risk of stock collapse. An Fmsy policy based on pre-season adult biomass resulted in more variable yields than were obtained at the equivalent constant fishing mortality at age. Stability of yield therefore demanded the acceptance of lower average yields than could be attained in the long term by quota adjustment. It was considered that the South African purse-seine industry could not cope with the wide fluctuations of yield necessary to attain MAY. Specific management policies sufficiently robust to withstand both fluctuating recruitment success and the uncertainties in the parameters of working population models would be required.     

Acoustic study on the abundance and distribution of anchovy spawners and recruits in South African waters

Direct surveys of Cape anchovy Engraulis capensis spawner and recruit biomass in South African coastal waters were made with a 38-kHz calibrated echo-sounder and custom-built digital echo-integrator. The spawning surveys were conducted each November between 1983 and 1985, predominantly on the Agulhas Bank. Recruit surveys were conducted in autumn 1985 and 1986, mainly on the West Coast. The spawning fish were widely distributed across the continental shelf, whereas recruit concentrations were highest close inshore. Employing a target strength per kilogramme expression for herring Clupea harengus, the spawning biomass in 1984 was estimated at 1,06 million tons and that in 1985 at 0,98 million tons. Similarly, recruit biomass in May/June 1985 and June 1986 was estimated at 310 and 466 thousand tons respectively. From an analysis of error in the latter two estimates, it was considered approximately 80 per cent certain that the recruitment in 1986 was greater than in 1985. The estimates of spawning biomass are 3–4 times higher than earlier estimates made by Virtual Population Analysis (VPA) of commercial catch data, and suggest that the stock is less seriously threatened by present catch levels than was indicated by VPA. It is concluded from the distribution and age structure of the spawning population that the VPA estimates are invalid because of the failure of commercial vessels to sample the major part of the adult population.     

Population dynamics and fishery management of the paua,Haliotis iris

A population model is developed and used in conjunction with the results of a study of an unexploited population of paua (Haliotis iris Martyn) to examine the historical pattern of recruitment and yield per recruit. As H. iris cannot yet be aged, the population model uses size rather than age classes, but is structurally similar to the Leslie matrix model. Simulations suggest that the observed population size structure resulted from a short (about 5 year) period of high recruitment, preceded and followed by longer periods of low recruitment. Yield per recruit analysis shows that the present minimum legal size for the fishery (127 mm) provides close to the maximum yield per recruit for most stocks, although yield per recruit could be increased in some areas by a reduction in minimum legal size.     

渔业产量和资源生物量数值模型及相关因子的初步研究

对于渔业的中长期预报计算,是渔业种群补充的关键问题。本文在单位补充量产量和单位补充量生物量模型中加入了亲体一补充模型即密度相关过程,并引入了白色噪音以模拟环境变化。结果表明：本研究(1)可以明确地给出渔业种群崩溃的可能性,估计出达到崩溃时的捕捞死亡率;(2)可以估计最大持续产量的绝对值;(3)引入的白色噪音可以模拟环境变化对产量与捕捞死亡率和产量与亲体生物量关系曲线的影响。虽然亲体补充关系仍多是个假设,补充与亲体之间存在的补偿机制需要进一步的研究。     

Incorporating uncertainty into the estimation of biological reference points for a spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery

The status of a fishery is often defined as the probability of fishing mortality rate exceeding a perilous level for long‐term sustainability. Lobster stock assessments are often subject to large uncertainty in input data and high levels of natural variability in lobster life history processes, which calls for incorporating uncertainty associated with both indicator and management reference points in an evaluation of biological risk of overfishing. Using a Monte Carlo simulation approach, we evaluated the impacts of uncertainty in modelling on the determination of the status of the Taitung spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery (Taiwan), which has not been quantitatively determined despite its commercial importance. The commonly used biological reference points derived from the per recruit model (F _0.1 the fishing mortality rate where the slope of the curve of yield‐per‐recruit model is 10% of the maximum slope and F _4Q%, the fishing mortality rate that reduces the expected egg production for a cohort of female lobsters to 40% of that produced in the absence of a fishery of the egg‐per‐recruit model) were influenced by uncertainties associated with lobster life history and fishery parameters. A large uncertainty in the current fishing mortality rate (F _cnr) and estimates of biological reference points (F _BRPs) increased the uncertainty in determining the risk of overexploitation throughout the confidence levels of the stochastic decision‐making framework. This simulation study suggests that the target reference point of F _40% is less sensitive to the input parameters’ uncertainty than F _0.1 We suggest a further evaluation of other F‐based references points and development of biomass‐based reference points before final selection and implementation for the management of the Taitung lobster fishery.     

Stock-environment recruitment analysis for Namibian Cape hake Merluccius capensis

The factors modulating recruitment success of Cape hake Merluccius capensis in Namibian waters are still unresolved. In this study, we used generalised additive models, regression tree analysis and the conventional Ricker model to examine the effect of environmental indices and spawning stock biomass (SSB) on hake recruitment success for the period 1984–2012. Results indicated that upwelling strength explained 51% of the recruitment variability, whereas SSB had no significant influence. The effect of SSB on recruitment only became significant when combined with upwelling strength, explaining 89% of the recruitment variability. SSB influenced recruitment during periods of strong upwelling. Optimal conditions for hake recruitment were associated with moderate upwelling strength. Low and high upwelling intensities reduced recruitment success. Our results are consistent with those of other studies suggesting a significant influence of environmental conditions on recruitment at a low spawning stock level. Our study highlights the importance of assessing the combined non-linear effects of both biotic and abiotic factors on hake recruitment.     

Estimates of size for the large octopus Macroctopus maorum from measures of beaks in prey remains

Macroctopus maorum, also known as Octopus maorum and Pinnoctopus cordiformis, grows to 12 kg and is the largest octopod in Australasia. In New Zealand, this species features in the diets of seals and albatrosses. Beaks of depredated octopus resist digestion and accumulate in the stomach until regurgitated or defecated. Beaks of M. maorum were differentiated reliably from those of other octopods in prey remains for octopus > c.100 g. Previous studies estimated the size of depredated M. maorum from measures of lower beaks using equations derived either from a small sample of M. maorum or from related species. Here, allometric equations to estimate ventral mantle length (4.6–27.5 cm), dorsal mantle length (5.1–29.0 cm), total length (20–198 cm), and body mass (36–12 000 g) were derived from measures of both upper and lower beaks of 90 specimens of M. maorum. These regressions were imprecise and reflected innate variability in octopus morphometrics, a characteristic reflected in the results of analyses of published data for M. maorum from northern New Zealand and for two other large octopods, Octopus vulgaris and Enteroctopus magnificus.     

西北太平洋气候和海洋环境变化对柔鱼空间分布的影响

Ommastrephes bartramii is an ecologically dependent species and has great commercial values among the AsiaPacific countries. This squid widely inhabits the North Pacific, one of the most dynamic marine environments in the world, subjecting to multi-scale climatic events such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). Commercial fishery data from the Chinese squid-jigging fleets during 1995–2011 are used to evaluate the influences of climatic and oceanic environmental variations on the spatial distribution of O. bartramii. Significant interannual and seasonal variability are observed in the longitudinal and latitudinal gravity centers(LONG and LATG) of fishing ground of O. bartramii. The LATG mainly occurred in the waters with the suitable ranges of environmental variables estimated by the generalized additive model. The apparent north-south spatial shift in the annual LATG appeares to be associated with the PDO phenomenon and is closely related to the sea surface temperature(SST)and sea surface height(SSH) on the fishing ground, whereas the mixed layer depth(MLD) might contribute limited impacts to the distribution pattern of O. bartramii. The warm PDO regimes tend to yield cold SST and low SSH, resulting in a southward shift of LATG, while the cold PDO phases provid warm SST and elevated SSH,resulting in a northward shift of LATG. A regression model is developed to help understand and predict the fishing ground distributions of O. bartramii and improve the fishery management.     

捕捞和气候变化在南海北部湾口鱼类长期种类演替和种群动态的作用

捕捞压力在改变南海鱼类种类演替和生物量波动方面所起的作用大于气候和环境因素是一个普遍的、有争议的假设。根据1959~2010年南海北部北部湾口底拖网的调查数据,报告了该海域鱼类种类组成、优势类群的丰度比例、生物量的季节和年际变化。建立了鱼类生物量与捕捞压力和气候变化外部因素之间的广义加性模型。结果表明,捕捞压力驱动底层渔业资源急剧下降的主要因素,并随着时间的推移,高值鱼类被低值鱼类所取代。1993年和1998年期间鱼类生物量的突然减少与同期厄尔尼诺事件相对应,气候变化可能是渔业拖网捕捞中中上层鱼类比例变化的主要驱动因素。为了更好地了解鱼类群落动态,需要区分捕捞压力和环境驱动因素对不同生活史策略鱼类物种的影响。     

西北太平洋环境变化对柔鱼冬春生群体资源丰度的影响

During 1995–2011, annual production of winter-spring cohort of Ommastrephes bartramii for Chinese squidjigging fishery has greatly fluctuated, which is closely related to the environmental conditions on the spawning and fishing grounds. To better understand how squid recruitment and abundance were influenced by ocean environmental conditions, biological and physical environmental variables including sea surface temperature(SST), SST anomaly(SSTA), chlorophyll a(Chl a) concentration and the Kuroshio Current were examined during years with the highest(1999), intermediate(2005), and lowest(2009) catches. Catch per unit effort(CPUE) of the squid-jigging vessels was used as an indicator of squid abundance. The results indicated that high SST and Chl a concentration on the spawning ground in 1999 resulted in favorable incubation and feeding conditions for squid recruitment. Whereas the suitable spawning zone(SSZ) in 2009 shifted southward and coincided with low SST and Chl a concentration, resulting in a reduction in the squid recruitment. The small difference of SSZ area in the three years suggested the SSZ provided limited influences on the variability in squid recruitment. Furthermore,high squid abundance in 1999 and 2005 was associated with warm SSTA on the fishing ground. While the cool SSTA on the fishing ground in 2009 contributed to adverse habitat for the squid, leading to extremely low abundance. It was inferred that strengthened intensity of the Kuroshio force generally yielded favorable environmental conditions for O. bartramii. Future research are suggested to focus on the fundamental research on the early life stage of O. bartramii and mechanism of how the ocean-climate variability affects the squid abundance and spatial distribution by coupling physical model with squid biological process to explore transport path and abundance distribution.     

东海浮游端足类数量的时空分布特征

分析了东海端足类数量分布的时空变化,并就其与环境因素及鲐鯵渔场的关系进行了初步探讨,结果显示本区端足类数量季节变化和年际变化显著,其分布状况与黄海冷水、江浙沿岸流、台湾暖流以及黑潮在本区运动消长有关,与鲐鯵渔场分布有着密切关系.     

Stock assessment and management implications of horse mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) in Korean waters, based on the relationships between recruitment and the ocean environment

This study presents an example of horse mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) stock to demonstrate that marine environmental factors are important in stock assessment for the new Korean Total Allowable Catch (TAC)-based fisheries management system. The estimated survival rate (S) of horse mackerel ranged from 0.25 to 0.36. The instantaneous coefficient of natural mortality (M) was 0.48/year, and the age at first capture was 0.83 year. Annual biomass of horse mackerel in Korean waters was estimated by a biomass-based cohort analysis using annual catch in weight at age during 1965–1995. Yield-per-recruit and spawning biomass-per-recruit were estimated under various harvest strategies at F_max, F_0.1, F_30% and F_40%. A method for estimating acceptable biological catch (ABC) is proposed for dealing with the large differences in the quality and quantity of information and data available. Using recruitment of horse mackerel estimated from various spawner–recruitment relationship models combined with salinity, volume transport, and zooplankton biomass as environmental factors, the ABC under the best information available was estimated to range from 3100 to 3800 mt.     

Study on spatial and temporal distribution of planktonic amphipoda in the East China Sea

Quantitative distribution of planktonic amphipoda in the East China Sea is analyzed and the relation with environmental factors and mackerel and scad fishing grounds is studied. The result shows that the characteristic of biomass is great seasonal and interannual variety during the passing three decades. The distribution of planktonic amphipoda basically reflects the movement, decay and intensification of the different water systems in the survey area.     

Study on spatial and temporal distribution of planktonic amphipoda in the East China Sea

Quantitative distribution of planktonic amphipoda in the East China Sea is analyzed and the relation with environmental factors and mackerel and scad fishing grounds is studied. The result shows that the characteristic of biomass is great seasonal and interannual variety during the passing three decades. The distribution of planktonic amphipoda basically reflects the movement, decay and intensification of the different water systems in the survey area.     

基于世代分析法的西北太平洋柔鱼冬春生西部群体资源评估

根据1996-2006年7～11月中国大陆鱿钓船在西北太平洋38°N～46°N、150°E～165°E海域的生产统计、平均渔获个体等数据,基于Pope提出的世代分析法估算了不同自然死亡系数下(M＝0.03～0.1/10 d)柔鱼冬春生西部群体7月的初始资源量,以及该群体为对象的渔业管理参考点,包括最大可持续产量(MSY)和逃逸率,并且拟合了该群体补充量与亲体量的关系,推测了2006-2020年资源量和渔获量的变化.结果表明,M为0.06/10 d为1个临界点,若实际M＜0.06/10 d则该群体处于过度开发状态;若M=0.06/10 d则该群体处于充分利用状态;若M＞0.06/10 d则该群体还有进一步开发利用的空间.补充量亲体关系表明,Beverton-Holt模型拟合效果略优于Ricker模型.要持续利用该资源,逃逸率应设在40%左右,其相应的MSY为10万t左右.文章模拟了M=0.06/10 d时不同捕捞强度下资源量变化状况,认为维持目前的捕捞努力量下,到2020年该群体的资源量都将处在稳定状态,且能保持每年9～10万t的渔获量.     

Climate variability and pelagic fisheries in northern Chile

A time series analysis of long-term climate variability in northern Chile (18°21′–24°00′S) shows anomalies associated with the El Niño events and the longer warm period observed since 1976, followed by a cooling trend since mid 1980s. The succession of pelagic fisheries, anchovy (Engraulis ringens) and sardine (Sardinops sagax), occurring in this fishing zone was analyzed taking into account the landings, the CPUE abundance index, the fishing effort, and the environmental variables. The anchovy production model is a negative linear function of fishing effort and turbulence. For sardine, the production model is a negative linear function of fishing effort and a quadratic function of the sea surface temperature.An analysis of the relationship between recruitment, adult biomass and the environment shows that the annual recruitment of anchovy increases with turbulence intensity until wind speed reaches a value of 5.46 m s⁻¹, decreasing for higher values. For sardine, the recruitment increases with turbulence intensity until 5.63 m s⁻¹, stabilizing thereafter.It is deduced that the climatic variations associated to the El Niño events affect the abundance of coastal pelagic fishes, without forgetting the most likely effects upon its distribution and the fishing effort. However, it is the long-term variability that mainly affects the fishing activity.     

东、黄海绿鳍马面鲀的资源评估

运用Pope-Shepherd多世代解析法推算了1977—1987年东、黄海绿鳍马面纯的各龄组资源量及捕捞死亡系数变动。结果表明,一龄以上资源量从70年代末的70余万吨逐步减少,80年代中期降到约50万吨的最低点。此后渔获物中一龄鱼比例大幅度增加。1984—1986三年中一龄鱼分别占渔获物的14.8％,53.3％。和16.2％(重量比例)。但因东、黄海主要底鱼衰退,生态系结构发生变化,马面纯幼鱼补充多于70年代,特别是1985年和1986年幼鱼补充量显著增加,出现二个较强的补充群体,使1986和1987年的2龄鱼数量有所增加。但该期间3龄以上成鱼资源量仍低于70年代水准,反映出捕捞强度过大。根据生物量曲线解析,将开捕年龄提高到3龄才能获得最佳管理效果。