Analysis of extreme low-temperature events during the warm season in Northeast China

The trends of global warming are increasingly significant, especially in the middle and high latitude regions of the northern hemisphere, where the impact of climate change on extreme events is becoming more noticeable. Northeast China is located in a high latitude region and is sensitive to climate change. Extreme minimum temperatures causing cold damage during the warm season is a major type of agro-meteorological disaster in Northeast China, which causes serious reductions in crop yield. In this paper, we analyzed the temporal and spatial trends in the frequency of extreme minimum temperatures during the warm season (from May to September) during 1956–2005 in Northeast China. Abrupt climatic changes were identified using the Mann–Kendall test. The results show that the frequency of extreme minimum temperature days during the warm season in Northeast China decreases significantly from 1956 to 2005 with a background of climate warming. The highest number of extreme minimum temperature days occurred in the 1970s and 1980s, and there was an abrupt climatic change in 1993. The spatial analysis identified that the north and southeast of the region experienced a larger decrease in the number of extreme low temperature days than the west and south of the region. Rice, sorghum, corn, and soybeans are most vulnerable to cold damage. In severe low temperature years, the average crop yield was reduced by 15.2% in Northeast China.     

Reconstruction of the summer rainfall regime for the last 500 years in China

The anomalies of summer rainfall (June–August) for the last 500 years in China have been estimated according to the relationship between the instrumentally observed rainfall and the degrees of floods and droughts for the last 25 years. It is shown that calculated anomalies of average rainfall for 10, 20 and 30 year periods have sufficient accuracies. The long-term climatic variations for the last 500 years are discussed based on the estimated anomalies of summer rainfall of 25 stations over the E part of China for the last 500 years. For example, there were prolonged drought in the N of China at about the end of Ming dynasty, but there were extensive floods in China for the early times of Qing dynasty. The anomalies of rainfall for the last 500 years were averaged along latitude zone and their decade running mean were formed. It was found that the long-term variations are very clear. The 80 year cycle is predominating. Besides, an about 200 year cycle is also shown in the charts of 50-year mean rainfall anomalies. It is indicated that both above mentioned cycles relate closely to the solar activity.     

Soil temperatures in four metropolitan cities of Korea from 1960 to 2010: implications for climate change and urban heat

This study was conducted to reveal the trends of the air temperature and soil temperature for 51 years (1960–2010) and their relationship in four of Korea’s largest metropolitan cities (Seoul, Incheon, Busan and Daejeon). Also, the trends of the air and soil temperatures between the studied metropolitan cities and a rural area (Chupungryong) were compared to examine the effect of urban heat. Among the metropolitan cities, the long-term mean soil temperatures (depth 0.0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 3.0, 5.0 m) were lowest (13.34–14.80 °C) in Seoul and highest (16.24–16.54 °C) in Busan, which is mainly the effect of the latitude. The soil temperature exponentially increased with depth in the three cities except for Busan and was closely related to the air temperature. The soil temperatures responded well to the air temperature change (maximum correlation coefficients 0.88–0.98) but this response was slightly delayed with depth. The air and soil temperatures increased at the rates of 0.24–0.40 and 0.11–0.73 °C/decade, respectively, for the period. The increasing rate of the soil temperature was the largest in Daejeon as 0.39–0.73 °C/decade, which was almost 2–4 times greater than those of the other cities (0.11–0.40 °C/decade), and it rose with depth. The increase of the soil temperature was coincident with the increase of the air temperature, which indicates that the soil temperature was largely affected by the increasing of the air temperature. In contrast, the increase in air temperature in Chupungryong (0.06 °C/decade) was significantly lower than in the metropolitan cities. In addition, the increase of the soil temperature in the rural area (0.13 °C/decade) was also much lower than that in the inland cities (0.20–0.27 °C/decade) while it showed no substantial difference from that in the coastal cities (0.11–0.15 °C/decade). Therefore, it is inferred that the soil temperature of the metropolitan cities increased with the increase of the air temperature due to global warming as well as the anthropogenic urban heat.     

过去 2ka气候变化研究进展

过去 2ka气候和环境变化是PAGES计划研究的核心内容之一。自该计划实施以来,各国科学家就近 2ka气候变化研究做了大量的工作,陆续召开了多次国际会议。介绍了研究的历史背景,然后从冰芯、树轮和历史文献三个方面回顾和评述了国内外近年来对过去 2ka气候和环境变化的研究现状,其中重点关注了中世纪暖期和小冰期在全球的空间表现特征。     

基于冰川钻孔温度的古气候重建研究进展北大核心CSCD

冰川内部温度与过去冰面温度变化密切相关,因此可以利用冰川钻孔温度对过去冰面温度变化过程进行重建。耦合的热传导-冰流物理模型与相关反演算法,是基于冰川钻孔温度进行古气候重建研究的理论基础和关键。论文收集了过去三十多年基于冰川钻孔温度进行古气候重建的研究文献,从冰川钻孔温度对气候变化的响应和古气候重建等方面进行了概述,并简要讨论了不同反演算法的优劣性和适用条件。尽管很多因素(如太阳辐射、融水等)都会对冰川钻孔温度造成影响,但两极或高纬地区的冷冰川钻孔温度能较好地反映气候变化历史。目前已通过这些不同地区的冰川钻孔温度,重建了末次冰期冰盛期以来不同时间尺度的气候变化历史,同时可与对应的冰芯记录相互印证。此外,通过冰川钻孔温度可以研究冰川与气温的耦合作用,并进一步预测冰川对未来气候变化的响应。利用中纬度冷冰川钻孔温度开展古气候重建的研究较少,未来加深这一方面的研究将有助于揭示中纬度高海拔地区的气候变化状况。     

丝绸之路青海道吐蕃时期墓葬出土木材记载的森林干扰史

森林动态与气候变化及人类活动有着紧密的联系, 了解森林干扰的发生历史对准确预测全球变暖背景下的森林动态具有重要意义, 也可为理解历史时期的气候变化和人地关系演变提供线索。文章利用丝绸之路青海道沿线吐蕃时期3个墓葬中出土的78棵祁连圆柏(Juniperus przewalskii Komarov)原木作为研究对象, 利用树木年轮学方法分析了其干扰历史。结果表明: 在公元1世纪到公元8世纪, 该地区祁连圆柏个体平均出现了51个主要生长释放事件年与15个主要生长抑制事件年, 其中公元4世纪下半叶的干扰事件发生频率最高。在公共区间85~700 A.D. 期间, 该地区森林出现大范围生长抑制事件的主要时期为537~548 A.D., 大范围生长释放事件发生在372~393 A.D. 和561~574 A.D. 期间。墓葬周边现生祁连圆柏生长与气候因素的响应分析以及相关的历史资料显示, 气候条件由干转湿是导致该地区森林生长释放事件的重要原因, 吐谷浑与吐蕃到达柴达木地区后增加的森林采伐与森林破坏也可能促进了生长释放的发生。研究结果有助于进一步认识青藏高原东北部历史时期森林干扰的发生规律, 以及气候变化和人类活动对丝绸之路青海道沿线森林产生的影响。

     

21世纪北半球中高纬度净初级生产力(NPP)变化及其与气候因子之间的关系

基于CMIP5模式模拟的净初级生产力(NPP), 对21世纪初期(2016-2035年), 中期(2046-2065年)和末期(2080-2099年)三种排放情景下(RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5)北半球中高纬度陆地NPP的时空变化进行了预估, 并结合气候因子分析了NPP的变化和气温、降水、辐射之间的关系. 结果表明: 相对于1986-2005年, 21世纪北半球中高纬度陆地NPP呈增加趋势, RCP8.5情景下NPP的增加比RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下更为明显; 在季节变化上, 北半球中高纬度NPP也以增加为主, 且NPP在夏季, 尤其是6月增加最显著. NPP对气候变化的响应存在明显的区域差异性, 在中低排放情景下(RCP2.6、RCP4.5), 相对于1986-2005年, 21世纪北半球中高纬度地区温度显著影响的范围在逐渐缩小, 而辐射和降水显著影响的范围在扩大. 在高排放情景下(RCP8.5), 21世纪北半球中高纬度地区NPP的变化主要与温度有关.     

河西内陆河流域出山径流对气候转型的响应

对甘肃河西内陆河流域出山径流变化过程与趋势的研究表明,从20世纪80年代中后期开始,受西风环流降水的影响,祁连山区中、西部的黑河、疏勒河流域的气候环境发出了由增温变干转为变湿的讯号,具体表现为随着山区气温升高,降水量增加,出山径流相应增大.采用区域气候模式预测和水文统计模式的计算,亦同样证实出山径流有显著的增加趋势.但受季风影响的祁连山东部的石羊河流域则尚未出现这种转变,从20世纪50年代起,出山径流量持续下降,表明其气候环境仍向增温变干的方向发展.     

Is Bulgaria becoming warmer and drier?

This article attempts to analyse the current climatic variations based on air temperature and precipitation data from 18 stations for the 1916–1993 period. No substantial changes have been established in the annual air temperatures, averaged over the whole country's area, but there is evidence of late fall cooling and winter warming in the recent decade. A marked drought set in during 1982–1993, which in SW Bulgaria which reached a record level for the last 100 years both in terms of its duration and intensity. Climatolgical patterns contributing to these observations are discussed.     

钻孔温度恢复及平衡态温度确定

多年冻土温度场在气候变化研究重要意义，因为多年冻土具有记忆古温度场的能力。钻探过程对冻土原状温度具有深刻影响，深钻孔在几个内难以恢复到天然状态。热扩散理论表明，５０年后钻孔温度才能恢复至平衡状态。控制钻孔温度恢复的对数方程为求得冻土平衡态温度场提供了有效手段。     

全球碳循环与中国百年气候变化

文章总结近百年来中国气候变化的特点、人类活动对碳循环的影响以及温室气体气候效应的模式研究结果。近百年来,中国年平均温度呈上升趋势,但温度变化具地区性和季节性特征。近50年观测到的冬季增温最为明显,长江中下游地区夏季地区还出现了降温。人类活动被认为是导致全球变暖的重要原因。大气CO2浓度从工业化前的约280ppm增加到了2008年的385.2ppm［1］。20世纪90年代期间,全球碳源为8.0GtC/a（1Gt=10亿吨）,包括化石燃料燃烧产生的碳（6.4±0.4GtC/a）和土地利用变化产生的碳1.6［0.5～2.7］GtC/a。同时大气中增加的碳为3.2±0.1GtC/a和海洋吸收的碳为2.2±0.4GtC/a［2］。碳源比碳汇高出2.6［0.9～4.3］GtC/a,这部分目前学术界还不能解释的碳汇被称为“碳失汇”［2］。北半球陆地生态系统是寻找“碳失汇”的重要方向。目前多数气候模式能够成功再现全球平均气温在过去百年的实际演变。就全球年平均温度在 1880～1999年的变化而言,在自然因子和人为因子的共同强迫作用下,参加IPCC AR4的19个耦合模式集合模拟的变暖趋势为0.67℃/100a,非常接近观测的0.53℃/100a［3］。 多模式集合的结果与观测序列的相关系数可以达到0.87［3］,这种高相关系数主要来自20世纪的变暖趋势。19个耦合模式模拟中国平均气温演变的能力较之模拟全球平均情况要差,与实际观测值之间的相关系数为0.55［4］。这表明对区域尺度的气候变化而言,其情况要比全球平均情况复杂的多,特别是中国地区存在的高浓度气溶胶,能在很大程度上影响中国区域的气候变化。由于气候变化同时受地球系统的自然变率和人为因子的影响,更进一步了解全球碳循环对中国近百年气候变化的影响还依赖于地球气候系统模式对各种自然和人为气候强迫的模拟准确性,特别需要结合观测和模拟减小陆地生态系统碳源汇的不确定性。     

日本海百年来沉积速率及粒度指示意义

对日本海中部、北部和西部四个深水多管沉积岩芯中的210Pb活度和沉积物粒度进行分析。结果显示百年以来大和海脊、日本海北部和西部陆坡沉积物以粉砂和黏土质粉砂为主。在日本海北部和大和海脊表层沉积物存在显著的生物扰动现象,而在西部陆坡不存在。基于恒定供给速率(CRS)模式建立了4个岩芯的年代框架,并计算了沉积速率。日本海现代平均沉积速率介于0.19~0.42 cm/a,最低值出现在大和海脊。4个岩芯中沉积物平均粒径呈现不同的分布模式,但是在1940年和1980年,沉积物粒度分布模式同时发生了改变,这可能与百年以来北太平洋十年涛动(PDO)及东亚夏季风震荡有关。     

气候变化对中国西北地区山区融雪径流的影响

选择祁连山黑河流域作为中国西北地区山区积雪流域的典型代表，分析了1956－1995年40a以来气候，积雪变化的状况和特点以及春季融雪径 波动趋势，利用融雪径流模型（Snowmelt Runoff Model-SRM)和卫星遥感数据模拟气温上升框架上的融雪径流变化情势，结果表明，中国西北地区山区的气候变化主要表现在年平均气温的缓慢上升而降水基本平稳，年内气温的上升幅度以1－2月份比较强烈，而3－6月融雪期的气温并没有大的变化，导致融雪期在时间尺度上的扩大，融雪径流呈慢增加趋势且受径流周期变化控制，融雪径流峰值的时间上前移。     

Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective

Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.     

SCL与中国东部气候年代际变化

据宇地磁耦合原理,利用太阳黑子周期长度(SCL)的变化及其与地磁场(文中主要考虑地热)的关系,模拟计算并重建了中国东部历史时期的气温序列变化,除了个别时段外,模拟曲线与修正后的竺可桢曲线十分相似;分析了2500a来中国东部气候的年代际变化.结果表明,该曲线能较好地再现2500a来中国东部气候的冷暖变化.对竺氏曲线中有争议的几个冷暖时段,如公元150—350年的温暖期、1050—1150年的小气候适宜期等,模拟结果与后来研究者分析的结果相合.中唐至五代的气候冷暖交替变化不稳定.该曲线也能清晰地反映出小冰期中国东部气候各个时段的变化以及现代气候的变化趋势。     

Comparison of instrumental and GDGT-based estimates of sea surface and air temperatures from the Skagerrak

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and annual mean air temperatures (MATs) are estimated for the last 200 years from glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) proxies in a marine sediment core from the Skagerrak, off southern Norway. The reconstructed values compare well with annual SSTs and summer air temperatures obtained from composite regional instrumental records. The results provide further confidence in the application of proxies based on GDGTs to estimate past temperatures.     

过去2000年气候变化对中国经济与社会发展影响研究综述

It is one of the important focuses of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) to investigate the long-term impacts of climate change on regional social and economic development over the past two millenniums. The past decades in China have witnessed great progresses in the study of past climatic influence on human society. In this paper, reviews have been made on the latest proceedings related with researches about the past 2000-year climatic impacts on Chinese history in terms of the following three aspects: economic fluctuations, social stability, and the rise and fall of dynasties in China. It is concluded that climate change and socio-economic fluctuation in historical China really temporarily demonstrated a good coincidence, which indicates a potential driving-response mechanism was likely embedded in the complicated relationship between climate change and human society. A warm climate provided relatively stable conditions of agricultural production and thus generally played a positive role in the healthy development of the economy and society. On the contrary, socio-economic adverseness triggered by a colder climate was preconditioned with social problems such as the intensification of the contradiction between people and land, as well as the gradual accumulation of social rigidity. These social problems accompanying with social development contributed higher vulnerability of society in the face of changing climate, which to some extent might amplify the effects of climatic deterioration. The authors emphasize that the future studies of the relationship between past climate change and human history in China should attach more attention to the following key problems: making deeper exploitation of the potential of Chinese historical documents, exploring the mechanism of climate-society interaction, and studying the differences of climatic effects on socio-economic development at the regional scale. This study from a historical perspective might enhance the understanding of human-environment relationship under a situation of global warming, and also provide the scientific basis for the sustainable social development in China.     

塔里木河流域气候与径流变化及生态修复

从20世纪90年代中期开始,塔里木河流域气温上升、降水增加,阿克苏河、开都河等主要河流几乎同步进入持续的丰水周期时段,为塔里木河流域生态修复创造了绝好的“天时”和历史性机遇.这种大区域的气候异常变化现象引起了国内外广大学者的广泛关注,区域气候异常变化是全球气温上升影响盆地气候向温湿转型,还是一个世纪性的水文周期变化现象,一时间成为了学术界的热点议题.系统分析了塔里木河流域山区水文气象站近50 a来的气温、降水、河川径流以及塔里木河来水量变化,并系统评价了利用开都河丰水期的有利时机,向塔里木河下游应急输水及其生态修复情况.     

中国历史时期气候变化影响及其应对的启示简

The social impact of global climate change is one of the hotspots in the current research. To deal with the challenges from climate change, it could be learned from the adapting experiences and lessons to climate change in the history. The main achievements of cognition on the historical impacts of climatic change in China and on coping with the climate changes in the future based the published papers in recent years is summarized. The followings are the main conclusions. ①The general characteristics of the impacts of climatic change in the history was negative in the cold periods and positive in the warm periods, but there were regional differences in the impact and responses. ②The cooling trend on centurial scale and the social economic decline run concurrently. The rapid development supported by better resources and environment in the warm period could lead to the increase of the social vulnerability when the climate turned to the cold period. ③Strategies and policies to cope with the climate change in the history were adopted according to the temporal and spatial circumstances and the subjects. Initiative adaptation promoted by governments was an effective way.     

Soil carbon stock of the Central-East Asia in the climate warming

Water samples from the Wujiang River, a typical karst river system, were analyzed for major ion concentrations and δ^34S values of dissolved sulfate in order to identify the sources of sulfate, quantify the sulfate export flux and understand the role of sulfur cycling in chemical weathering rate of carbonate. Spatial variations in sulfate concentration and sulfur isotopic composition of tributaries over the catchment area are obvious, allowing to decipher S sources between rocks and atmosphere. According to the variations in sulfate concentration and isotopic composition, it is inferred that sulfate ions in the upper-reach river waters may have three sources, rain water, sulfate resultant from oxidation of pyrite in coal, and sulfate from sulfide deposits. In the lower reaches, the S isotopic composition of the samples lies mainly on a mixing trend between evaporite sulfate and rainwater sulfate, the contribution of sulfate from oxidation of pyrite being lesser. A pronounced seasonal variation in both content and isotopic composition of sulfate characterizes the Wujiang River. The average sulfate concentration of the waters is 0.65 mmol/L in winter, 0.17 mmol/L higher than that in summer. River water δ^34S values range from -15.7‰ to 18.9‰ in winter, while the δ^34S values of river waters in summer vary to a lesser extent than in winter, from -11.5‰ to 8.3‰. The δ^34S values of the main stream range from -6.7‰ to -3.9‰ in summer, averaging 3‰ lower than in winter. This indicates that in summer, when the discharge increases, the contribution of a source enriched in light isotopes to the atmosphere or the oxidation of pyrite in coal is more important.