Studies on frozen ground of China

Permafrost in China includes high latitude permafrost in northeastern China, alpine permafrost in northwestern China and high plateau permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau. The high altitude permafrost is about 92% of the total permafrost area in China. The south boundary or lower limit of the seasonally frozen ground is defined in accordance with the 0 oC isothermal line of mean air temperature in January, which is roughly corresponding to the line extending from the Qinling Mountains to the Huaihe River in the east and to the southeast boundary of the Tibetan Plateau in the west. Seasonal frozen ground occurs in large parts of the territory in northern China, including Northeast, North, Northwest China and the Tibetan Plateau except for permafrost regions, and accounting for about 55% of the land area of China. The southern limit of short-term frozen ground generally swings south and north along the 25o northern latitude line, occurring in the wet and warm subtropic monsoon climatic zone. Its area is less than 20% of the land area of China.     

中国冻土研究进展

Permafrost in China includes high latitude permafrost in northeastern China, alpine permafrost in northwestern China and high plateau permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau. The high altitude permafrost is about 92% of the total permafrost area in China. The south boundary or lower limit of the seasonally frozen ground is defined in accordance with the 0 ℃ isothermal line of mean air temperature in January, which is roughly corresponding to the line extending from the Qinling Mountains to the Huaihe River in the east and to the southeast boundary of the Tibetan Plateau in the west. Seasonal frozen ground occurs in large parts of the territory in northern China, including Northeast, North, Northwest China and the Tibetan Plateau except for permafrost regions, and accounting for about 55% of the land area of China. The southern limit of short-term frozen ground generally swings south and north along the 25° northern latitude line, occurring in the wet and warm subtropic monsoon climatic zone. Its area is less than 20% of the land area of China.     

Studies on frozen ground of China

1ThestatusoffrozengroundinChinaBased on previous studies, Zhou and Guo (1982) summarized the distribution characteristics of permafrost in China and indicated that the permafrost area in China is about 215×104 km2, in which about 163.4×104 km2 is on the Tibetan Plateau. After mapping and zonation of frozen ground in 1983, Xu and Wang suggested that the areas of permafrost, seasonally frozen ground and temporal frozen ground in China were 206.8×104 km2, 513.7×104 km2 and 229.1×104 km2 …     

The role of declining Arctic sea ice in recent decreasing terrestrial Arctic snow depths

The dramatic decline in Arctic sea ice cover is anticipated to influence atmospheric temperatures and circulation patterns. These changes will affect the terrestrial climate beyond the boundary of the Arctic, consequently modulating terrestrial snow cover. Therefore, an improved understanding of the relationship between Arctic sea ice and snow depth over the terrestrial Arctic is warranted. We examined responses of snow depth to the declining Arctic sea ice extent in September, during the period of 1979–2006. The major reason for a focus on snow depth, rather than snow cover, is because its variability has a climatic memory that impacts hydrothermal processes during the following summer season. Analyses of combined data sets of satellite measurements of sea ice extent and snow depth, simulated by a land surface model (CHANGE), suggested that an anomalously larger snow depth over northeastern Siberia during autumn and winter was significantly correlated to the declining September Arctic sea ice extent, which has resulted in cooling temperatures, along with an increase in precipitation. Meanwhile, the reduction of Arctic sea ice has amplified warming temperatures in North America, which has readily offset the input of precipitation to snow cover, consequently further decreasing snow depth. However, a part of the Canadian Arctic recorded an increase in snow depth driven locally by the diminishing September Arctic sea ice extent. Decreasing snow depth at the hemispheric scale, outside the northernmost regions (i.e., northeastern Siberia and Canadian Arctic), indicated that Arctic amplification related to the diminishing Arctic sea ice has already impacted the terrestrial Arctic snow depth. The strong reduction in Arctic sea ice anticipated in the future also suggests a potential long-range impact on Arctic snow cover. Moreover, the snow depth during the early snow season tends to contribute to the warming of soil temperatures in the following summer, at least in the northernmost regions.     

Probable effects of heat advection on the adjacent environment during oil production at Prudhoe Bay, Alaska

The latest available data for mean annual air temperature at sites away from the Arctic coast in both Alaska and the Yukon Territory show no significant warming in the last 30~50 years. However, around the Arctic coast of northwest North America centered on Prudhoe Bay, the weather stations show significant warming of both the air and the ocean water, resulting in substantial losses in sea ice west of Prudhoe Bay. These changes appeared shortly after the commencement of shipment of oil through the Trans-Alaska Pipeline in 1977, but have now reached a quasi-stable thermal state. Since more than 17 trillion barrels of oil have passed through the pipeline after being cooled by the adjacent air, which in turn, can then result in the melting of the adjacent sea ice, there appears to be a very strong relationship between these events, and a marked lack of correlation with the changes of the content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This contrasts with the IPCC interpretation of the available climatic data, which assumes that the maximum climatic warming at Prudhoe Bay is typical of the entire region and is the result of increasing greenhouse gases. Engineers need to consider heat advection by oil or gas from underground when designing pipeline facilities, and to take account of the potential environmental consequences that they may cause.     

Contrasting climate change in the two polar regions

The two polar regions have experienced remarkably different climatic changes in recent decades. The Arctic has seen a marked reduction in sea-ice extent throughout the year, with a peak during the autumn. A new record minimum extent occurred in 2007, which was 40% below the long-term climatological mean. In contrast, the extent of Antarctic sea ice has increased, with the greatest growth being in the autumn. There has been a large-scale warming across much of the Arctic, with a resultant loss of permafrost and a reduction in snow cover. The bulk of the Antarctic has experienced little change in surface temperature over the last 50 years, although a slight cooling has been evident around the coast of East Antarctica since about 1980, and recent research has pointed to a warming across West Antarctica. The exception is the Antarctic Peninsula, where there has been a winter (summer) season warming on the western (eastern) side. Many of the different changes observed between the two polar regions can be attributed to topographic factors and land/sea distribution. The location of the Arctic Ocean at high latitude, with the consequently high level of solar radiation received in summer, allows the ice-albedo feedback mechanism to operate effectively. The Antarctic ozone hole has had a profound effect on the circulations of the high latitude ocean and atmosphere, isolating the continent and increasing the westerly winds over the Southern Ocean, especially during the summer and winter.     

1961-2011年山东气候资源及气候生产力时空变化特征

基于山东省21个气象站1961-2011年的气象资料,利用线性趋势、IDW空间插值、Mann-Kendall检验、Fisher最优分割等方法分析了气温和降水的时空变化特征;在此基础上采用Thornthwaite Memorial模型对植被气候生产力的时空演变进行了研究,并探讨了气候生产力对气温和降水的敏感性。结果表明:近51年来山东省普遍增温,倾向率为0.359℃/10a,中部地区升温明显;年降水量在剧烈波动中略呈下降趋势,20世纪80年代降水量的变率较大,山东北部、东部、东南部降水量减少幅度较大。近51年来气候生产力存在较明显波动,总体呈增加趋势,但递增速度不显著,1981-1989年气候生产力最低,2003-2011年达到最高水平;气候生产力由北向南,由西向东逐渐增加,山东西南部气候生产力增加较多。“暖湿型”气候对作物气候生产力有利,气候变暖有利于气候生产力的提高,但降水量少是限制气候生产力的主要因素。     

Recent temperature and precipitation increases in West Siberia and their association with the Arctic Oscillation

Surface air temperature and precipitation records for the years 1958-1999 from ten meteorological stations located throughout West Siberia are used to identify climatic trends and determine to what extent these trends are potentially attributable to the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Although recent changes in atmospheric variability are associated with broad Arctic climate change, West Siberia appears particularly susceptible to warming. Furthermore, unlike most of the Arctic, moisture transport in the region is highly variable. The records show that West Siberia is experiencing significant warming and notable increases in precipitation, likely driven, in part, by large-scale Arctic atmospheric variability. Because this region contains a large percentage of the world's peatlands and contributes a significant portion of the total terrestrial freshwater flux to the Arctic Ocean, these recent climatic trends may have globally significant repercussions. The most robust patterns found are strong and prevalent springtime warming, winter precipitation increases, and strong association of non-summer air temperatures with the AO. Warming rates for both spring (0.5-0.8 °C/decade) and annual (0.3-0.5°C/decade) records are statistically significant for nine often stations. On average, the AO is linearly congruent with 96% (winter), 19% (spring), 0% (summer), 67% (autumn) and 53% (annual) of the warming found in this study. Significant trends in precipitation occur most commonly during winter, when four of ten stations exhibit significant increases (4-13 %/decade). The AO may play a lesser role in precipitation variability and is linearly congruent with only 17% (winter), 13% (spring), 12% (summer), 1% (autumn) and 26% (annual) of precipitation trends.     

RESPONSE OF THE CANADIAN PERMAFROST ENVIRONMENT TO CLIMATIC CHANGE

Human-induced climatic warming will have major impacts on permafrost, which presently underlies half of Canada's land mass. The adaptation of the northern environment and its physical processes to the altered climate may be contemporaneous or may lag behind climatic change. The extent of permafrost will diminish, accompanied by modifications of the land surface through thermokarst or mass wasting. Streamflow regimes, sediment transport, coastal flooding and erosion will be affected. The magnitude of most components of the water balance will be altered. More research is needed to understand how the permafrost environment behaves during the transient phase, and the problem of permafrost adaptation should be addressed holistically. [Key words: climatic change, frozen ground, ground ice, hydrology, permafrost, periglacial geomorphology, water balance.]     

Long-term variability in Arctic sea surface temperatures

In this study, we used 30 years of an operational sea surface temperature (SST) product, the NOAA Optimum Interpolation (OI) SST Version 2 dataset, to examine variations in Arctic SSTs during the period December 1981–October 2011. We computed annual SST anomalies and interannual trends in SST variations for the period 1982–2010; during this period, marginal (though statistically significant) increases in SSTs were observed in oceanic regions poleward of 60°N. A warming trend is evident over most of the Arctic region, the Beaufort Sea, the Chuckchi Sea, Hudson Bay, the Labrador Sea, the Iceland Sea, the Norwegian Sea, Bering Strait, etc.; Labrador Sea experienced higher temperature anomalies than those observed in other regions. However, cooling trends were observed in the central Arctic, some parts of Baffin Bay, the Kara Sea (south of Novaya Zemlya), the Laptev Sea, the Siberian Sea, and Fram Strait. The central Arctic region experienced a cooling trend only during 1992–2001; warming trends were observed during 1982–1991 and 2002–2010. We also examined a 30-yr (1982–2011) record of summer season (June–July–August) SST variations and a 29-yr (1982–2010) record of September SST variations, the results of which are discussed.     

浑善达克沙地地区的气候变化特征

利用浑善达克沙地地区8个典型气象站近50a的气候资料,以及锡林郭勒盟南部1903-1975年旱涝等级指数数据,主要运用Excel分析了该区时空气候变化特征。近50a来,整个浑善达克沙地地区气温升高的趋势和全球变暖表现一致,而且气温升高更加显著。无论从100a尺度还是50a尺度上看,整个区域在不同的年代都存在有较大的干湿差异;然而降水量的变化趋势表现不同,在50a尺度上,整个区域降水量呈波动中微弱减少的态势,且存在区域差异。从气温、降水量、蒸发量以及平均相对湿度的变化情况看,都有趋势表明浑善达克沙地以朱日和为代表的西北部地区,较中部和东南部有明显暖干化趋势,将可能是未来生态环境更加脆弱的地区。整个区域自1970年以来,年平均风速在减小,但近40a来浑善达克沙地西部地区沙尘暴一直在发展;东部地区的沙尘暴在1980年以前呈增加的趋势,1980年以后则明显减少,但新近频繁发生的沙尘暴表明,东部地区沙尘暴的发展也应当引起关注。     

Permafrost in Svalbard: a review of research history, climatic background and engineering challenges

This paper reviews permafrost in High Arctic Svalbard, including past and current research, climatic background, how permafrost is affected by climatic change, typical permafrost landforms and how changes in Svalbard permafrost may impact natural and human systems. Information on active layer dynamics, permafrost and ground ice characteristics and selected periglacial features is summarized from the recent literature and from unpublished data by the authors. Permafrost thickness ranges from less than 100 m near the coasts to more than 500 m in the highlands. Ground ice is present as rock glaciers, as ice-cored moraines, buried glacial ice, and in pingos and ice wedges in major valleys. Engineering problems of thaw-settlement and frost-heave are described, and the implications for road design and construction in Svalbard permafrost areas are discussed.     

Current climate change effects on the ground thermal regime in Central Yakutia

The evolution of ground thermal state has been studied to assess impacts of current climatic warming on permafrost in Central Yakutia. The analysis of long-term data of regional weather stations has revealed one of the highest increasing trends in mean annual air temperature in northern Russia. A forecast of surface air temperature fluctuations has been made by applying a frequency analysis method. Monitoring of ground thermal conditions allows us to identify inter-annual and long-term variability among a wide range of natural conditions. Experimental research has indicated a long-term dynamics of ground thermal state evolution： ground temperatures at the depth of zero annual amplitude and seasonally thawed layer depth. Long-term variability of thaw depth shows near-zero to weak positive trends in small valleys in contrast to weak negative trends on slopes. With significant climatic warming, the thermal state of near-surface layers of permafrost demonstrates steadiness. Anthropogenic impacts on ground thermal regime in various terrain types have been qualitatively evaluated. Clear-cutting, ground cover stripping, and post-fire deforestation in inter-alas type terrains result in a significant increase of temperature and seasonal ground thaw depth, as well as adverse cryogenic processes. The dynamics of mean annual ground temperature in slash and burn sites have been evaluated in reference to stages of successive vegetation recovery.     

Climate change and permafrost stability in the eastern Canada Cordillera: The results of 33 years of measurements

Over the last 33 years,a network of climate stations has been set up at high altitude mountain permafrost sites from Plateau Mountain near Claresholm,Alberta,north to Sheldon Lake on the North Canol Road in the Yukon.Taken together with the data from the US National Weather Service and the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service,the results indicate a cooling of mean annual air temperature south of Calgary,no significant change in Calgary,a slight warming at Jasper,and a major warming at Summit Lake,west of Fort Nelson.In contrast,the south eastern and central Yukon show only a minor warming trend that lies well within the limits of a sixty-year record measured by the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service.Along the Mackenzie valley and on the North Slope of Alaska,the mean annual air temperature is rising.Permafrost is aggrading on Plateau Mountain,degrading at Summit Lake,and appears to be stable in southern Yukon and southern Alaska.This is in contrast to the warming occurring on the Arctic coastal plain and along the Mackenzie valley.It therefore appears that changes in climate vary considera-bly from place to place,and even where warming may occur,it may not continue indefinitely.There has been a northward shift of the arctic front due to a weakening of air pressure in the Yukon and Alaska relative to the continental tropical(cT) and maritime polar(mT) air masses to the south.Any actual changes that may be occurring appear to undergo amplification along the Mackenzie valley and Arctic coastal plain and reduction by buffering in the interior Yukon and Alaskan mountains,a result of mi-cro-environmental factors.Continued,careful monitoring of the climate is required and needs to be expanded in the National Parks in the mountains in order to provide data on the changes that may be taking place.Such measurements can provide a sound basis for interpreting ecological and other climate-related data.The existing climate models are not working satisfactorily because we do not know enough about the causes and proce     

Global warming trend without the contributions from decadal variability of the Arctic Oscillation

Climate change associated with recent global warming is most prominent in the Arctic and subarctic. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a dominant atmospheric phenomenon in the Northern Hemisphere. Decadal variability of surface air temperature (SAT) associated with the AO index shows high correlation with recent global warming trend. In this study, the SAT variability in the Northern Hemisphere is separated in contributions from decadal variability by the AO and remaining components.The results indicate that the decadal variability of the AO index shows high correlation with the SAT variation until 1990. The AO index and SAT variabilities show a negative trend during 1949–1969, while the trend is positive during 1969–1989. In addition, the spatial distribution pattern of the SAT linear trend during each period shows the same pattern as AO. However, while the AO index indicates a negative trend, the SAT trend is continuously positive also after 1990. This warming pattern appearing after 1990 is caused by the Arctic amplification.Although the AO has a large amplitude on local scale, the AO is almost dynamically orthogonal to the hemispheric warming component. However, the AO can be related to the decadal variability of the Arctic and subarctic temperature change through the feedbacks by climate sub-systems.     

Application of Landsat-7 satellite data and a DEM for the quantification of thermokarst-affected terrain types in the periglacial Lena–Anabar coastal lowland

Extensive parts of Arctic permafrost-dominated lowlands were affected by large-scale permafrost degradation, mainly through Holocene thermokarst activity. The effect of thermokarst is nowadays observed in most periglacial lowlands of the Arctic. Since permafrost degradation is a consequence as well as a significant factor of global climate change, it is necessary to develop efficient methods for the quantification of its past and current magnitude. We developed a procedure for the quantification of periglacial lowland terrain types with a focus on degradation features and applied it to the Cape Mamontov Klyk area in the western Laptev Sea region. Our terrain classification approach was based on a combination of geospatial datasets, including a supervised maximum likelihood classification applied to Landsat-7 ETM+ data and digital elevation data. Thirteen final terrain surface classes were extracted and subsequently characterized in terms of relevance to thermokarst and degradation of ice-rich deposits. 78% of the investigated area was estimated to be affected by permafrost degradation. The overall classification accuracy was 79%. Thermokarst did not develop evenly on the coastal plain, as indicated by the increasingly dense coverage of thermokarst-related areas from south to north. This regionally focused procedure can be extended to other areas to provide the highly detailed periglacial terrain mapping capabilities currently lacking in global-scale permafrost datasets.     

Current Trends in Climate Change in Yakutia

The spatial distribution patterns of climatic changes in Yakutia are considered. For 26 meteorological stations of Yakutia we calculated the linear trend coefficients of climatic characteristics: air temperature (mean annual, January and July temperatures) and the mean annual amount of atmospheric precipitation from 1966 to 2016. Maps of climate change trends were compiled from linear trend coefficients. A spatial analysis of the zonal (regional) peculiarities of the climate of Yakutia has been carried out. An increase in air temperature was established for the 50-year period under consideration. It was found that the annual values of the air temperature trend are positive and, on average, a characteristic trend change interval is 0.3 to 0.6 °C/10 yr. Most of the meteorological stations recorded trends of air temperature with maximum values in winter and minimum values in summer. It was determined that the values of the trends in annual precipitation show different directions, and positive trends occur on more than 70% of the territory of Yakutia. Their maximum corresponds to the mountain-taiga regions of Southern Yakutia. Negative trends in precipitation with values of up to–15 mm/10 yr. are observed in tundra landscapes. The findings show that different regions of Yakutia respond differently to climate change. The trend of an increase in mean annual temperature is largely due to the rise in temperatures during the winter months. The rise in air temperature in Yakutia may be part of global warming. Over the last 50 years there has been an increase in the amount of precipitation in Yakutia as a whole.     

哈萨克斯坦东北部310年来初夏温度变化的树轮记录

在哈萨克斯坦东北部的阿尔泰山南坡,位于森林上限的西伯利亚落叶松的树轮宽度对生长季初期温度敏感,且在近年来气候变暖的背景下对温度的响应较为稳定,可以作为该区域温度变化的良好替代材料.利用森林上限区的树轮资料,从树轮宽度中提取初夏温度信息,建立了树轮宽度年表与卡通卡拉盖气象站6月平均温度的转换方程,重建了这一区域310年来的初夏温度变化历史,重建方程的方差解释量达到42.7％.由于校准期较长,利用独立检验方法对重建方程进行检验,各项检验的参数表明重建方程是稳定可靠的.重建序列与相邻的中国阿勒泰地区西部和阿尔泰山北坡树轮反映的温度变化序列的冷暖阶段是一致的,其中19世纪的温度波动较为明显,持续时间最长的冷期(1842-1871年)和暖期(1872-1906年)都出现在这个阶段.重建温度序列存在11a左右的周期,与太阳活动的周期一致.     

Highway Roadway Stability Influenced by Warm Permafrost and Seasonal Frost Action: A Case Study from Glennallen, Alaska, USA

Ground temperatures from four of the seven extensively studied highway cross-sections near Gulkana/Glennallen,Alaska during 1954~1962,were chosen to better understand the impacts of highway construction on warm permafrost.Both the thawing of permafrost and seasonal frost action impacted on road surface stability for about 6 years until the maximum summer thaw reached about 3 m in depth.Seasonal frost action caused most of the ensuing stability problems.Unusually warm summers and the lengths of time required to re-freeze the active layer were far more important than the average annual air temperatures in determining the temperatures of the underlying shallow permafrost,or the development of taliks.The hypothesized climate warming would slightly and gradually deepen the active layer and the developed under-lying talik,but its effect would be obscured by unusually warm summers,by warmer than usual winters,and by the vari-able lengths of time of the zero curtains.At least one period of climate mini-cooling in the deeper permafrost during the early 20th century was noted.     

Changes in the global cryosphere and their impacts: A review and new perspective

As one of the five components of Earth's climatic system, the cryosphere has been undergoing rapid shrinking due to global warming. Studies on the formation, evolution, distribution and dynamics of cryospheric components and their interactions with the human system are of increasing importance to society. In recent decades, the mass loss of glaciers, including the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, has accelerated. The extent of sea ice and snow cover has been shrinking, and permafrost has been degrading. The main sustainable development goals in cryospheric regions have been impacted. The shrinking of the cryosphere results in sea-level rise, which is currently affecting, or is soon expected to affect, 17 coastal megacities and some small island countries. In East Asia, South Asia and North America, climate anomalies are closely related to the extent of Arctic sea ice and snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. Increasing freshwater melting from the ice sheets and sea ice may be one reason for the slowdown in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the Arctic and Southern Oceans. The foundations of ports and infrastructure in the circum-Arctic permafrost regions suffer from the consequences of permafrost degradation. In high plateaus and mountainous regions, the cryosphere's shrinking has led to fluctuations in river runoff, caused water shortages and increased flooding risks in certain areas. These changes in cryospheric components have shown significant heterogeneity at different temporal and spatial scales. Our results suggest that the quantitative evaluation of future changes in the cryosphere still needs to be improved by enhancing existing observations and model simulations. Theoretical and methodological innovations are required to strengthen social economies' resilience to the impact of cryospheric change.