Indian summer monsoon during the last two millennia

The monsoon is a large‐scale feature of the tropical atmospheric circulation, affecting people and economies in the world's most densely populated regions. Future trends due to natural variability and human‐induced climate changes are uncertain. Palaeoclimate records can improve our understanding of monsoon dynamics and thereby reduce this uncertainty. Palaeoclimate records have revealed a dramatic decrease in the Asian summer monsoon since the early Holocene maximum 9 ka BP. Here we focus on the last 2 ka, where some records indicate an increasing trend in the summer monsoon. Analysing Globigerina bulloides upwelling records from the Arabian Sea, we find the weakest monsoon occurred 1500 a BP, with an increasing trend towards the present. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Unusual circulation pattern during Indian summer monsoon failure in July 2002 and June 2009

The circulation patterns over the Indian Ocean and the surrounding continents have been studied during June 2009 and July 2002 to explain the failure of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall. This study presents evidences that the failure of the ISM during these 2?months was probably due to the development of cyclonic circulation anomaly over the Western Asia and anticyclonic circulation anomalies downstream of Eastern Asia. These circulation anomalies were associated with the equatorward advection of cold air up to 10°N. This may be due to the equatorward intrusion of midlatitude Rossby waves. We hypothesize that the intrusion of midlatitude Rossby wave is responsible for breaking the east?Cwest circulation cell over the Indian region into two cells and weakening it. The weak east?Cwest cell reduces the strength of the easterly wind field usually present over the monsoonal region, thus reducing the cross-equatorial moisture transport into the Indian subcontinent and decreasing monsoon rainfall.     

Long range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

The search for new parameters for predicting the all India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) has been an important aspect of long range prediction of AISMR. In recent years NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has improved the geographical coverage and availability of the data and this can be easily updated. In this study using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data on temperature, zonal and meridional wind at different pressure levels, few predictors are identified and a prediction scheme is developed for predicting AISMR. The regression coefficients are computed by stepwise multiple regression procedure. The final equation explained 87% of the variance with multiple correlation coefficient (MCC), 0.934. The estimated rainfall in the El-Niño year of 1997 was ?1.7% as against actual of 4.4%. The estimated rainfall deficiency in both the recent deficient years of 2002 and 2004 were ?19.5% and ?8.5% as against observed ?20.4% and ?11.5% respectively.     

Active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon

In this paper, we suggest criteria for the identification of active and break events of the Indian summer monsoon on the basis of recently derived high resolution daily gridded rainfall dataset over India (1951–2007). Active and break events are defined as periods during the peak monsoon months of July and August, in which the normalized anomaly of the rainfall over a critical area, called the monsoon core zone exceeds 1 or is less than −1.0 respectively, provided the criterion is satisfied for at least three consecutive days. We elucidate the major features of these events. We consider very briefly the relationship of the intraseasonal fluctuations between these events and the interannual variation of the summer monsoon rainfall.     

Towards understanding the unusual Indian monsoon in 2009

The Indian summer monsoon season of 2009 commenced with a massive deficit in all-India rainfall of 48% of the average rainfall in June. The all-India rainfall in July was close to the normal but that in August was deficit by 27%. In this paper, we first focus on June 2009, elucidating the special features and attempting to identify the factors that could have led to the large deficit in rainfall. In June 2009, the phase of the two important modes, viz., El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) was unfavourable. Also, the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) was warmer than in other years and much warmer than the Bay. In almost all the years, the opposite is true, i.e., the Bay is warmer than EEIO in June. It appears that this SST gradient gave an edge to the tropical convergence zone over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, in competition with the organized convection over the Bay. Thus, convection was not sustained for more than three or four days over the Bay and no northward propagations occurred. We suggest that the reversal of the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between the Bay of Bengal and EEIO, played a critical role in the rainfall deficit over the Bay and hence the Indian region. We also suggest that suppression of convection over EEIO in association with the El Niño led to a positive phase of EQUINOO in July and hence revival of the monsoon despite the El Niño. It appears that the transition to a negative phase of EQUINOO in August and the associated large deficit in monsoon rainfall can also be attributed to the El Niño.     

Interannual and long-term variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Analysis of summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall series of 29 subdivisions based on a fixed number of raingauges (306 stations) has been made for the 108-year period 1871–1978 for interannual and long-term variability of the rainfall. Statistical tests show that the rainfall series of 29 sub-divisions are homogeneous, Gaussian-distributed and do not contain any persistence. The highest and the lowest normal rainfall of 284 and 26 cm are observed over coastal Karnataka and west Rajasthan sub-divisions respectively. The interannual variability (range) varies over different sub-divisions, the lowest being 55 and the highest 231% of the normal rainfall, for south Assam and Saurashtra and Kutch sub-divisions respectively. High spatial coherency is observed between neighbouring sub-divisions; northeast region and northern west and peninsular Indian sub-divisions show oppositic correlation tendency. Significant change in mean rainfall of six sub-divisions is noticed. Correlogram and spectrum analysis show the presence of 14-year and QBO cycles in a few sub-divisional rainfall series.     

Is there an attractor for the Indian summer monsoon?

Aperiodicity in the time series of Indian summer rainfall for 116 years is analysed using the phase space approach. The question whether a low-dimensional strange attractor is associated with the chaotic behaviour of the monsoon system is investigated. It is found that a strange attractor of dimensionality around 5·1 exists and the system has 12 relevant degrees of freedom.     

Indian summer monsoon forcing on the deglacial polar cold reversals

The deglacial transition from the last glacial maximum at \(\sim \)20 kiloyears before present (ka) to the Holocene (11.7 ka to Present) was interrupted by millennial-scale cold reversals, viz., Antarctic Cold Reversal (\(\sim \)14.5–12.8 ka) and Greenland Younger Dryas (\(\sim \)12.8–11.8 ka) which had different timings and extent of cooling in each hemisphere. The cause of this synchronously initiated, but different hemispheric cooling during these cold reversals (Antarctic Cold Reversal \(\sim \)3\(^{\circ }\hbox {C}\) and Younger Dryas \(\sim \)10\(^{\circ }\hbox {C}\)) is elusive because \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\), the fundamental forcing for deglaciation, and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the driver of antiphased bipolar climate response, both fail to explain this asymmetry. We use centennial-resolution records of the local surface water \(\delta ^{18}\hbox {O}\) of the Eastern Arabian Sea, which constitutes a proxy for the precipitation associated with the Indian Summer Monsoon, and other tropical precipitation records to deduce the role of tropical forcing in the polar cold reversals. We hypothesize a mechanism for tropical forcing, via the Indian Summer Monsoons, of the polar cold reversals by migration of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and the associated cross-equatorial heat transport.     

The Indian summer monsoon as revealed by the NCMRWF system

In this study, we present the mean seasonal features of the Indian summer monsoon circulation in the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) global data assimilation and forecast system. The large-scale budgets of heat and moisture are examined in the analyzed and model atmosphere. The daily operational analyses and forecasts (day 1 through day 5) produced for the summer seasons comprising June, July and August of 1995 and 1993 have been considered for the purpose. The principal aim of the study is two-fold. Primarily, to comprehend the influence of the systematic errors over the Indian summer monsoon, secondarily, to analyze the performance of the model in capturing the interseasonal variability. The heat and moisture balances show reduction in the influx of heat and moisture in the model forecasts compared to the analyzed atmosphere over the monsoon domain. Consequently, the diabatic heating also indicates reducing trend with increase in the forecast period. In effect, the strength of Indian summer monsoon, which essentially depends on these parameters, weakens considerably in the model forecasts. Despite producing feeble monsoon circulation, the model captures interseasonal variability realistically. Although, 1995 and 1993 are fairly normal monsoon seasons, the former received more rainfall compared to the latter in certain pockets of the monsoon domain. This is clearly indicated by the analyzed and model atmosphere in terms of energetics.     

Decoupling of the East Asian summer monsoon and Indian summer monsoon between 20 and 17 ka

Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 2, with its profound environmental and climatic changes from before the last glacial maximum (LGM) to the last deglaciation, is an ideal period for understanding the evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and Indian summer monsoon (ISM), two Asian monsoon sub-systems. With 875 stable oxygen isotope ratios and 43 ²³⁰Th dates from stalagmites in Sanxing Cave, southwestern China, we construct and interpret a new, replicated, Asian summer monsoon (ASM) record covering 30.9–9.7 ka with decadal resolution. δ¹⁸O records from this site and other reported Chinese caves display similar long-term orbitally dominated trends and synchronous millennial-scale strong and weak monsoonal events associated with climate changes in high northern latitudes. Interestingly, Sanxing δ¹⁸O and Arabian Sea records show a weakening ISM from 22 to 17 ka, while the Hulu and Qingtian records from East and Central China express a 3-ka intensifying EASM from 20 to 17 ka. This decoupling between EASM and ISM may be due to different sensitivities of the two ASM sub-systems in response to internal feedback mechanisms associated with the complex geographical or land-ocean configurations.     

Influence of different land-surface processes on Indian summer monsoon circulation

The impact of different land-surface parameterisation schemes for the simulation of monsoon circulation during a normal monsoon year over India has been analysed. For this purpose, three land-surface parameterisation schemes, the NoaH, the Multi-layer soil model and the Pleim-Xiu were tested using the latest version of the regional model (MM5) of the Pennsylvania State University (PSU)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) over the Indian summer monsoon region. With respect to different land-surface parameterisation schemes, latent and sensible heat fluxes and rainfall were estimated over the Indian region. The sensitivity of some monsoon features, such as Somali jet, tropical easterly jet and mean sea level pressure, is discussed. Although some features of the Indian summer monsoon, such as wind and mean sea level pressure, were fairly well-simulated by all three schemes, many differences were seen in the simulation of the typical characteristics of the Indian summer monsoon. It was noticed from the results that the features of the Indian summer monsoon, such as strength of the low-level westerly jet, the cross-equatorial flow and the tropical easterly jet were better simulated by NoaH compared with verification analysis than other land-surface schemes. It was also observed that the distribution of precipitation over India during the peak period of monsoon (July) was better represented with the use of the NoaH scheme than by other schemes.

Variation in the relationship of the Indian summer monsoon with global factors

Utilizing data for the long period 1871–1990, variation in the relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR) and tendencies of the global factors. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the sea surface temperature (SST) over eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean has been explored. The periods for which relationships exist have been identified. Tendencies from the season SON (Sept-Oct-Nov) to season DJF (Dec-Jan-Feb) and from DJF to MAM (Mar-Apr-May) before the Indian summer monsoon are indicated respectively by SOIT-2/SSTT-2 and SOIT-l/SSTT-1, current tendency from JJA (June-July-Aug) to SON, by SOIT0/SSTT0, tendencies from SON to DJF and DJF to MAM following monsoon, by SOIT1/SSTT1 and SOIT2/SSTT2 respectively. It is observed that while the relationships of IMR with SSTT-1, SSTT0 and SSTT2 exist almost throughout the whole period, that with SOIT-1 exists for 1942–1990, with SOIT0 for 1871–1921 and 1957–1990 and with SOIT2, for 1871–1921 only. The relationships that exist with SOIT-1, SOIT2, SSTT-1, SSTT2 and with SSTT0 (for period 1931–1990) are found to be very good and those that exist with SOIT0 for periods 1871–1921 and 1957–90 and for SSTT0 for the period 1871–1930 are good. It is thus seen that the relationships of SOIT-1, SOIT0 and SOIT2 with IMR do not correspond well with those of SSTT-1, SSTT0 and SSTT2 with IMR respectively, even though SOI and SST are closely related to each other for all the seasons. SOIT-1 and SSTT-1 can continue to be used as predictors for IMRDuring the whole period, IMR is found to play a passive, i.e. of being influenced or anticipated by SSTT-1 as well as an active role, i.e. of influencing or anticipating SSTT2. This implies a complex and perhaps non-linear interaction between IMR and SST tendency from DJF to MAM. Possibly, this is a part of the larger interaction between Asian monsoon rainfall and the tropical Pacific. A possible physical mechanism for the interaction is indicated.     

On the impacts of ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole events on sub-regional Indian summer monsoon rainfall

The relative impacts of the ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events on Indian summer (June–September) monsoon rainfall at sub-regional scales have been examined in this study. GISST datasets from 1958 to 1998, along with Willmott and Matsuura gridded rainfall data, all India summer monsoon rainfall data, and homogeneous and sub-regional Indian rainfall datasets were used. The spatial distribution of partial correlations between the IOD and summer rainfall over India indicates a significant impact on rainfall along the monsoon trough regions, parts of the southwest coastal regions of India, and also over Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran. ENSO events have a wider impact, although opposite in nature over the monsoon trough region to that of IOD events. The ENSO (IOD) index is negatively (positively) correlated (significant at the 95% confidence level from a two-tailed Student t-test) with summer monsoon rainfall over seven (four) of the eight homogeneous rainfall zones of India. During summer, ENSO events also cause drought over northern Sri Lanka, whereas the IOD events cause surplus rainfall in its south. On monthly scales, the ENSO and IOD events have significant impacts on many parts of India. In general, the magnitude of ENSO-related correlations is greater than those related to the IOD. The monthly-stratified IOD variability during each of the months from July to September has a significant impact on Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability over different parts of India, confirming that strong IOD events indeed affect the Indian summer monsoon.

Meteorological fields variability over the Indian seas in pre and summer monsoon months during extreme monsoon seasons

In this study, the possible linkage between summer monsoon rainfall over India and surface meteorological fields (basic fields and heat budget components) over monsoon region (30‡E-120‡E, 30‡S30‡N) during the pre-monsoon month of May and summer monsoon season (June to September) are examined. For this purpose, monthly surface meteorological fields anomaly are analyzed for 42 years (1958-1999) using reanalysis data of NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research). The statistical significance of the anomaly (difference) between the surplus and deficient monsoon years in the surface meteorological fields are also examined by Student’s t-test at 95% confidence level. Significant negative anomalies of mean sea level pressure are observed over India, Arabian Sea and Arabian Peninsular in the pre-monsoon month of May and monsoon season. Significant positive anomalies in the zonal and meridional wind (at 2 m) in the month of May are observed in the west Arabian Sea off Somali coast and for monsoon season it is in the central Arabian Sea that extends up to Somalia. Significant positive anomalies of the surface temperature and air temperature (at 2 m) in the month of May are observed over north India and adjoining Pakistan and Afghanistan region. During monsoon season this region is replaced by significant negative anomalies. In the month of May, significant positive anomalies of cloud amount are observed over Somali coast, north Bay of Bengal and adjoining West Bengal and Bangladesh. During monsoon season, cloud amount shows positive anomalies over NW India and north Arabian Sea. There is overall reduction in the incoming shortwave radiation flux during surplus monsoon years. A higher magnitude of latent heat flux is also found in surplus monsoon years for the month of May as well as the monsoon season. The significant positive anomaly of latent heat flux in May, observed over southwest Arabian Sea, may be considered as an advance indicator of the possible behavior of the subsequent monsoon season. The distribution of net heat flux is predominantly negative over eastern Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean. Anomaly between the two extreme monsoon years in post 1980 (i.e., 1988 and 1987) shows that shortwave flux, latent heat flux and net heat flux indicate reversal in sign, particularly in south Indian Ocean. Variations of the heat budget components over four smaller sectors of Indian seas, namely Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and west Indian Ocean and east Indian Ocean show that a small sector of Arabian Sea is most dominant during May and other sectors showing reversal in sign of latent heat flux during monsoon season.     

Current status of multimodel superensemble and operational NWP forecast of the Indian summer monsoon

In the last thirty years great strides have been made by large-scale operational numerical weather prediction models towards improving skills for the medium range time-scale of 7 days. This paper illustrates the use of these current forecasts towards the construction of a consensus multimodel forecast product called the superensemble. This procedure utilizes 120 of the recent-past forecasts from these models to arrive at the training phase statistics. These statistics are described by roughly 10⁷ weights. Use of these weights provides the possibility for real-time medium range forecasts with the superensemble. We show the recent status of this procedure towards real-time forecasts for the Asian summer monsoon. The member models of our suite include ECMWF, NCEP/EMC, JMA, NOGAPS (US Navy), BMRC, RPN (Canada) and an FSU global spectral forecast model. We show in this paper the skill scores for day 1 through day 6 of forecasts from standard variables such as winds, temperature, 500 hPa geopotential height, sea level pressure and precipitation. In all cases we noted that the superensemble carries a higher skill compared to each of the member models and their ensemble mean. The skill matrices we use include the RMS errors, the anomaly correlations and equitable threat scores. For many of these forecasts the improvements of skill for the superensemble over the best model was found to be quite substantial. This real-time product is being provided to many interested research groups. The FSU multimodel superensemble, in real-time, stands out for providing the least errors among all of the operational large scale models.     

Use of satellite data for radiative energy budget study of Indian summer monsoon

In this paper satellite-derived radiative energy budget such as shortwave radiative heating, longwave radiative heating and net radiation balance have been studied for the post-onset phase of summer monsoon 1979. Since clouds play an important role in determining diabatic heating field as well as being a reflection of status of the monsoon itself, the day to day evolution of clouds from TIROS-N satellite has been made. Satellite-derived radiative heating rates from surface to 100 hPa were computed for each 100 hPa thickness layer. These heating rates were then compared with the observed latitudinal distribution of total radiative heating rates over the domain of the study. From the results of our study it was found that the characteristic features such as net radiative heating rates of the order of 0.2°C/day at upper tropospheric layer (100–200 hPa) and cooling throughout the lower tropospheric layers with relatively less cooling between 500–700 hPa layer observed in a case of satellite-derived radiative energy budget agree well with the characteristic features of observational radiative energy budget over the domain of the study. Therefore, it is suggested that radiative energy budget derived from satellite observations can be used with great potential and confidence for the evolution of the complete life cycle of the monsoon over the Indian region for different years.