An integrated fuzzy-stochastic modeling approach for assessing health-impact risk from air pollution

High concentrations of air pollutants in the ambient environment can result in breathing problems with human communities. Effective assessment of health-impact risk from air pollution is important for supporting decisions of the related detection, prevention, and correction efforts. However, the quality of information available for environmental/health risk assessment is often not satisfactory enough to be presented as deterministic numbers. Stochastic method is one of the methods for tackling those uncertainties, by which uncertain information can be presented as probability distributions. However, if the uncertainties can not be presented as probabilities, they can then be handled through fuzzy membership functions. In this study, an integrated fuzzy-stochastic modeling (IFSM) approach is developed for assessing air pollution impacts towards asthma susceptibility. This development is based on Monte Carlo simulation for the fate of SO₂ in the ambient environment, examination of SO₂ concentrations based on the simulation results, quantification of evaluation criteria using fuzzy membership functions, and risk assessment based on the combined fuzzy-stochastic information. The IFSM entails (a) simulation for the fate of pollutants in ambient environment, with the consideration of source/medium uncertainties, (b) formulation of fuzzy air quality management criteria under uncertain human-exposure pathways, exposure dynamics, and SPG-response variations, and (c) integrated risk assessment under complexities of the combined fuzzy/stochastic inputs of contamination level and health effect (i.e., asthma susceptibility). The developed IFSM is applied to a study of regional air quality management. Reasonable results have been generated, which are useful for evaluating health risks from air pollution. They also provide support for regional environmental management and urban planning.     

Biomarkers in environmental and human health risk assessment

Marine pollution is a major threat to human and environmental health. Given the complexity of function of marine and coastal ecosystems, it is unlikely that a balanced view of the nature and extent of risk will easily be achieved if human and environmental risk assessments continue to be conducted in isolation. Here, the integration of assessment protocols is advocated as a holistic means of improving risk management. Biomarkers can provide the common conceptual framework and measurable endpoints necessary for successful integration. Examples are given of the ways in which suites of biomarkers encompassing molecular change, cellular pathology and physiological impairment can be developed and adapted for human and ecological scenarios. By placing a greater emphasis on the health status of impacted biota, it is more likely that risk assessment will develop the efficiency, reliability and predictive power to adapt to the unforeseen environmental threats that are an inevitable consequence of human development and global change.     

Geospatial Investigation into Groundwater Pollution and Water Quality Supported by Satellite Data: A Case Study from the Evros River (Eastern Mediterranean)

Managing water resources, in terms of both quality and quantity, in transboundary rivers is a difficult and challenging task that requires efficient cross-border cooperation and transparency. Groundwater pollution risk assessment and mapping techniques over the full catchment area are important tools that could be used as part of these water resource management efforts, to estimate pollution pressures and optimize land planning processes. The Evros river catchment is the second largest river in Eastern Europe and sustains a population of 3.6 million people in three different countries (Bulgaria, Turkey and Greece). This study provides detailed information on the main pollution sources and pressures in the Evros catchment and, for the first time, applies, assesses and evaluates a groundwater pollution risk mapping technique using satellite observations (Landsat NDVI) and an extensive dataset of field measurements covering different seasons and multiple years. We found that approximately 40 % of the Greek part of the Evros catchment is characterized as of high and very high pollution risk, while 14 % of the study area is classified as of moderate risk. Both the modeled and measured water quality status of the river showed large spatiotemporal variations consistent with the strong anthropogenic pressures in this system, especially on the northern and central segments of the catchment. The pollutants identified illustrate inputs of agrochemicals and urban wastes in the river. High correlation coefficients (R between 0.79 and 0.85) were found between estimated pollution risks and measured concentrations of those chemical parameters that are mainly attributed to anthropogenic activities rather than in situ biogeochemical processes. The pollution risk method described here could be used elsewhere as a decision support tool for mitigating the impact of hazardous human activities and improving management of groundwater resources.     

城市场次降雨径流污染负荷快速估算方法

城市降雨径流污染是城市水质恶化的重要原因之一,定量计算城市降雨径流污染负荷,是实施城市水环境污染总量控制管理的基础和关键,可为城市水环境治理和污染控制提供科学依据.本文以污染物累积冲刷理论为基础,提出了“特征面积”的概念和计算公式,建立了场次降雨径流污染负荷数学模型,并结合案例,对数学模型在有效性、预测精度、适用性和局限性等方面进行评价.结果表明,特征面积较好地反映了污染物在各类土地上的污染负荷特性,场次降雨径流污染负荷与特征面积和降雨量的乘积呈正比.利用3场及以上降雨径流污染负荷结果,可较好地率定模型,从而可快速且较准确地估算单场次降雨径流污染负荷.该方法简单实用,获取数据工作量小,适用地区广.对于小降雨事件,建议采用降雨量相近的观测结果对模型进行率定,以提高模型的预测精度.     

BIOREGIS Software Platform Based on GIS Technology to Support in‐Situ Remediation of Petroleum Contaminated Sites. Case Study: Razvad – Dambovita County,Romania

With a need for the management of petroleum contaminated sites on Romanian territory, an experimental software platform involving ESRI‐ArcGIS technologies (BIOREGIS) is presented in this study. The BIOREGIS platform is aimed to: (i) Build the structure of relational, standardized databases to store spatial and textual characteristic information on polluted sites for further risk analysis and planning of remediation actions, (ii) improve the pollution risk assessment methodology for Romanian petroleum contaminated sites and its informatics implementation, and (iii) develop and operate the software platform for pollution risk based management involving GIS/remote sensing technologies and remediation activities. The operation of BIOREGIS has been tested for a pilot contaminated area situated at Razvad – Dambovita County, which has been subjected to in situ remediation procedures involving both bioremediation and electrokinetic processes.     

Assessment of river habitat in Brandenburg, Germany

A habitat assessment of 1,707 km of rivers in the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany, was undertaken using the desk-based ‘overview method’. This method includes the analysis of different sources such as topographic and thematic maps, reports, remote sensing data, and interviews with authorities. It compares actual habitat conditions with natural conditions, and assesses the human disturbances using a seven-step scale. Results show, that in Brandenburg more than 50% of surveyed river units are heavily (class 5) to totally disturbed (class 7) and only slightly more than 20% are undisturbed (class 1) to little disturbed (class 2). Main human disturbances are canalization, bank stabilizations, flood control, migration barriers, and agricultural and urban development in the floodplain. All survey data and maps are embedded in a geographical information system (GIS) that not only allows future analysis and use in river restoration management by experts, but also serves as information for the public. The river habitat map of Brandenburg is part of the river habitat map of the entire Germany.     

太湖蓝藻水华发生风险区划

湖泊水华是全世界面临的严重生态环境问题之一,对人类和生态系统健康都有重大影响.以太湖为研究区域,基于近年的蓝藻水华及水环境监测数据,结合自组织特征映射神经网络和模糊风险评价方法,对太湖不同监测点蓝藻水华的发生风险进行综合评价,并借助GIS地学统计分析方法对全太湖蓝藻水华发生风险进行区划,绘制太湖蓝藻水华发生风险区划图.结果表明:太湖被分为重度风险区、中度风险区、轻度风险区、微风险区,各风险区基本呈带状分布.从各风险区面积来看,重度风险区、中度风险区、轻度风险区的面积约各占太湖总面积的1/5,而微风险区约占太湖总面积的2/5;从各风险区位置来看,重度风险区主要分布在西北部区域,且从整个湖区来看,蓝藻水华的发生风险等级自西北到东南依次递减.本研究揭示太湖水华灾害风险的空间分布规律,对支撑水环境监测和水华灾害防治方案的制定具有一定的意义.     

利用高分辨率卫星影像进行地震损失评价所需的城市特征识别

高分辨率卫星影像已经在一些国家的民用领域得到应用。利用高分辨率卫星影像来收集地震损失评价所需要的各类城市信息不仅高效和有较好的时间分辨率，而且它可以减少以往所必需的大量的代价高昂且费力的城市调查。基于在印度城市台拉登所做的研究，讨论了如何利用高分辨率卫星影像进行城市特征识别的一些问题，同时也简单论述了利用GIS／RS软件综合所得的数据以便用于地震损失评价的方法。     

考虑区域水资源地震破坏后的信息管理模型设计

传统水资源信息管理模型采用GIS网络技术,对水资源信息进行优化配置,未对地震多发区域水资源管网进行综合规划,存在地震破坏后受污染水资源信息管理性能差的问题。设计考虑区域水资源地震破坏后污染的信息管理模型,模型包括受污染水资源信息规划设计模块、信息监测和采集模块、信息管理模块。3个模块分别实现对地震破坏后污染的水资源管网的合理规划、监测和采集以及污染信息的综合管理。实验结果表明,所设计模型对区域水资源地震破坏后污染的信息管理的平均时间达到1.38 s,且在管理过程中各项功能的评分都高于93.5分,具有较高的管理性能。     

基于GIS系统的城市震灾评估和救灾应急的研究

地震防灾减灾能力是国家的重点需求,针对当前城市抗震应急存在的灵活性差问题,在过去研究的基础上,将GIS系统应用至城市抗震救灾应急响应中,建立的GIS系统利用地震灾害评估模块、数据库管理模块、地震应急响应和指挥决策模块构成城市抗震救灾应急响应框架,完成城市GIS系统的应用分析。地震灾害评估模块中计算震害总体损失、经济损失和生命损失,实现地震灾害评估信息数据的精确性采集;数据库管理模块中的抗灾救灾应急响应数据库主要利用矢量数据、数字正射影像数据和其他专题数据构成,完成一致性访问各种类型数据,提高城市抗震救灾应急响应灵活性;在响应与决策模块中利用核心服务器实现数据信息的上传下达,实现快速救援响应。研究中对这套GIS系统与当前方法做对比,进行抗震救灾过程灵活性、救援数据精准性的比较实验。实验对比结果表明,所提研究成果提供的救援数据精确性强,且运行过程中灵活系数等部分指标高于当前研究。     

基于ArcView9.0的城市震害预测及应急对策信息系统研究

介绍了城市防震减灾信息系统基本的构成及功能,并针对国内研发中存在的不足从四个方面进行了完善,即增加了地震预警级别判定功能,丰富了地震信息的录入方式,改进了城市群体建筑物震害预测的计算模型,引入了应急对策模块并利用G IS的可视化功能加以表现。在此基础上研发了基于ArcV iew9.0的城市震害预测及应急对策信息系统,并以山西运城市城区的实际数据进行了系统演示。     

基于GIS的城市震害单元化应急医疗救助辅助系统

在城市震害应急管理单元的基础上,提出了城市震害单元化应急医疗资源需求模型,并给出了该模型的GIS集成方案,进而整合现有震害应急救助相关理论和方法,结合面向对象与数据库技术,采用组件式集成二次开发方式,详细阐述了建立城市震害单元化应急医疗救助辅助系统的系统设计目标、技术路线、体系结构及功能构建等,形成了基于GIS的城市震害单元化应急医疗救助辅助系统的技术思路和解决方案,并以重庆邮电大学为应急管理单元,建立了初步试验系统。     

城市震害高危害小区的研究和GIS的实现技术

论述了在城市地震灾害中如何考虑诸方面因素来评价城市的灾害轻重分布情况。中建立坑危害小区分析模型，设想将城市划分等面积网格，给每个单元网格赋予灾害指数，以确定城市中受灾较为严重的区域，为求灾指挥提供决策信息。同时，将高危害小区的模型研究结果转化为计算机技术可以实现的GIS模型。该研究结果已应用于泰安市防震减灾示范研究项目中。     

Probabilistic ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in sediments from China’s major aquatic bodies

An overall and comparative ecological risk assessment of heavy metals (including Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Zn, Hg and As) in surface sediments from China’s eight major aquatic bodies was conducted to better understand their potential risks on a national scale. By applying the joint approach of Hakanson risk index (RI) and Monte Carlo simulation, ecological risk in this work is expressed as probability distribution of RI values instead of single point calculations to reflect the uncertainties in risk assessment process. The results show that the highest ecological risks posed by heavy metals existed in Xiangjiang River and Dianchi Lake. Although only a slim margin of high risk (651.88/600 = 1.08 and 700.61/600 = 1.17) was identified based on average RI values, the probabilities of high risk level derived from Monte Carlo simulation reached as high as 56.7 and 52.9 % in these two aquatic bodies, respectively. And the probability of low risk level was less than 1.6 %. Furthermore, the risk was mainly contributed by Hg and Cd, discharged through local intensive mining and industrial activities. The findings indicate that rigid control and effective management measures to prevent heavy metal pollution are urgently needed in China, especially for the high-risk aquatic bodies. This study shows that the joint approach can be used to identify the high risk water bodies and the major metal pollutants. It may avoid overestimating or underestimating the ecological risk and provide more decision-making support for risk alleviation in the polluted aquatic bodies.     

Challenges in global ballast water management

Ballast water management is a complex issue raising the challenge of merging international regulations, ship's specific configurations along with ecological conservation. This complexity is illustrated in this paper by considering ballast water volume, discharge frequency, ship safety and operational issues aligned with regional characteristics to address ecological risk for selected routes. A re-estimation of ballast water volumes gives a global annual level of 3500 Mton. Global ballast water volume discharged into open sea originating from ballast water exchange operations is estimated to approximately 2800 Mton. Risk based decision support systems coupled to databases for different ports and invasive species characteristics and distributions can allow for differentiated treatment levels while maintaining low risk levels. On certain routes, the risk is estimated to be unacceptable and some kind of ballast water treatment or management should be applied.     

Delineation of flooding risk hotspots based on digital elevation model,calculated and historical flooding extents: the case of Ouagadougou

Delineation of flood risk hotspots can be considered as one of the first steps in an integrated methodology for urban flood risk management and mitigation. This paper presents a step-by-step methodology in a GIS-based framework for identifying flooding risk hotspots for residential buildings. This is done by overlaying a map of potentially flood-prone areas [estimated through the topographic wetness index (TWI)], a map of residential areas [extracted from a city-wide assessment of urban morphology types (UMT)], and a geo-spatial census dataset. The novelty of this paper consists in the fact that the flood-prone areas (the TWI thresholds) are identified through a maximum likelihood method (MLE) based both on inundation profiles calculated for a specific return period (T_R), and on information about the extent of historical flooding in the area of interest. Furthermore, Bayesian parameter updating is employed in order to estimate the TWI threshold by employing the historical extent as prior information and the inundation map for calculating the likelihood function. For different statistics of the TWI threshold, the map of potentially flood-prone areas is overlaid with the map of residential urban morphology units in order to delineate the residential flooding risk urban hotspots. Overlaying the delineated urban hotspots with geo-spatial census datasets, the number of people affected by flooding is estimated. These kind of screening procedures are particularly useful for locations where there is a lack of detailed data or where it is difficult to perform accurate flood risk assessment. In fact, an application of the proposed procedure is demonstrated for the identification of urban flooding risk hotspots in the city of Ouagadougou, capital of Burkina Faso, a city for which the observed spatial extent of a major flood event in 2009 and a calculated inundation map for a return period of 300 years are both available.     

辽西北地区农业干旱灾害风险评价与风险区划研究

以辽西北29个农业县（市、区）为研究区域,选取辽西北最主要的玉米作物作为研究对象,从造成农业干旱灾害的致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露性、脆弱性和抗旱减灾能力4个方面着手,利用自然灾害风险指数法、加权综合评价法和层次分析法,建立了农业干旱灾害风险指数（ADRI）,用以表征农业干旱灾害风险程度;借助GIS技术,绘制辽西北农业干旱灾害风险评价区划图,将风险评价区划图与2006年辽西北受干旱影响粮食减产系数区划图对比,发现两者可以较好的匹配。研究结果可为当地农业干旱灾害预警、保险,以及有关部门的旱灾管理、减灾决策制定提供理论依据和指导。     

A stochastic rough-approximation water management model for supporting sustainable water-environment strategies in an irrigation district of arid region

In this study, a stochastic rough-approximation water management model (SRAWM) associated with optimistic and pessimistic options is proposed for supporting regional sustainability in an irrigation system (IS) of an arid region with uncertain information. SRAWM can not only handle conventional stochastic variations in objective functions or constraints, but also tackle objective and subjective (i.e., risk performance of the decision maker) fuzziness through rough-approximation model based on measure Me. The developed model would be applied to a real case study of an irrigation district (ID) in Kaidu-kongque River Basin, China, which is encountering challenges in economic development and a serious environmental crisis (e.g., drought, water deficit, land deterioration, stalinization, soil erosion and water pollution) synchronously. Simulation technical (i.e., support vector regression) is put into SRAWM framework to reflect dynamic prediction of water demand in the future. Results of optimized irrigation area, water allocation, water deficit, pollution reduction, water and soil erosion and system benefit under various water-environmental policies (corresponding to various ecological effects) are obtained. Tradeoffs between ecological and irrigative water usages can facilitate the local decision makers rectifying the current irrigation patterns and ecological protection polices. Moreover, compromises between systemic benefit and failure risk can help policymakers to generate a robust risk-control plan under uncertainties. These detections are beneficial to achieve conjunctive goals of socio-economic development and eco-environmental sustainability in such an arid IS.     

城市活断层探测信息系统的设计与实现——以福州市活断层信息管理系统为例

以福州市活断层信息管理系统为例,提出了城市活断层探测信息系统建设的目标,分析了以GIS技术为支持的、面向对象的设计方法及系统结构与功能。系统在局域网内采用C/S模式,在广域网中采用B/S模式,具有用户界面、应用程序和基础数据的3层结构。探测成果数据库按照分类、分层存贮,按专题组织查询的方式管理。城市活断层探测信息管理系统以活断层探测成果数据库为基础,空间分析为支撑,集地质、地球物理、地球化学、综合查询及专题分析应用为一体,具备活断层探测及分析研究成果分类与综合查询、展示、分析等功能,这一系统的建立可为活断层研究的定量化提供坚实的数据基础与技术平台,为城市规划、土地利用等防震减灾工作的开展提供科学依据     

Risk assessment and ranking of heavy metals concentration in Iran’s Rayen groundwater basin using linear assignment method

Groundwater is an important source of freshwater for domestic, agricultural and industrial uses in Iran. Groundwater quality assessment and environmental evaluation are considered as critical issues in recent years. Intensive human activities have resulted in significant changes in environment leading to serious groundwater contamination. This research proposes a two-part systematic approach to tackle heavy metals contamination problem in Rayen Basin (southeast Iran). The first part consists of determining geochemical characteristics and evaluating groundwater quality through application of water quality index and heavy metal pollution indices (i.e. HPI and MI). The second part includes ranking sampling stations based on heavy metals concentration in groundwater using linear assignment method. Six types of water could be identified according to the dominant cations and anions in samples: Ca–HCO₃, Ca–SO₄, Na–Cl, Na–HCO₃, Na–SO₄ and mixed water type. Calculation of indices revealed that natural and anthropogenic activities are playing a vital role in degrading groundwater quality in the study area. The proposed methodology can help in groundwater resource management and preventative activities by identifying risk factors and recognizing their pollution level. The results of this research provide useful and effective information for water pollution control and management and can be used in environmental studies in order to protect groundwater resources in the future.