Territorial spatial zoning based on suitability evaluation and its impact on ecosystem services in Ezhou city

Exploring the spatial zoning of urban territories and their ecological effects under different decision preferences is an important approach to promote the sustainable utilization of regional resources. This paper constructs an index system for evaluating the suitability of territorial space development from the perspectives of urban development, agricultural production, and ecological conservation. It predicts and simulates the trade-offs between territorial space development and protection in ...     

中国能源消费碳排放强度及其影响因素的空间计量(英文)

The sustainable development has been seriously challenged by global climate change due to carbon emissions. As a developing country, China promised to reduce 40%–45% below the level of the year 2005 on its carbon intensity by 2020. The realization of this target depends on not only the substantive transition of society and economy at the national scale, but also the action and share of energy saving and emissions reduction at the provincial scale. Based on the method provided by the IPCC, this paper examines the spatiotemporal dynamics and dominating factors of China's carbon intensity from energy consumption in 1997–2010. The aim is to provide scientific basis for policy making on energy conservation and carbon emission reduction in China. The results are shown as follows. Firstly, China's carbon emissions increased from 4.16 Gt to 11.29 Gt from 1997 to 2010, with an annual growth rate of 7.15%, which was much lower than that of GDP(11.72%). Secondly, the trend of Moran's I indicated that China's carbon intensity has a growing spatial agglomeration at the provincial scale. The provinces with either high or low values appeared to be path-dependent or space-locked to some extent. Third, according to spatial panel econometric model, energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure and urbanization rate were the dominating factors shaping the spatiotemporal patterns of China's carbon intensity from energy consumption. Therefore, in order to realize the targets of energy conservation and emission reduction, China should improve the efficiency of energy utilization, optimize energy and industrial structure, choose the low-carbon urbanization approach and implement regional cooperation strategy of energy conservation and emissions reduction.     

中国南方调整水稻种植格局——一种水稻生产预先适应气候变化的选择(英文)

Rice planted in southern China accounts for 94% of the total in sown acreage and 88% of the total in production, which matters a lot to Chinese food security. However, due to the prolonged conflict between water availability and rice growth in spatial/temporal distribu-tion, rice production suffers from seasonal drought at acreage of 16%-22%, which compro-mises food production capacity and food security. Focusing on the spatial distribution of seasonal drought with rice and the practices to adapt to it, and based on an analysis of bal-anced water supply for and demand by rice at a growing season scale during 1981-2030, this paper assesses the changing seasonal drought in the process of rice production under the changing climate in the future, and identifies general rice re-cultivation options for climate change adaptation. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) Rice suggests a decline in seasonal drought, with early season rice (early rice hereafter) by 12,500 km2, middle season rice (middle rice) by 80,000 km2, and in particular late season rice (late rice) by 25,000 km2, which accounts for almost 20% of its cultivated acreage. It is indicated that due to climate change, seasonal drought in major rice producing areas tends to alleviate in general, late season rice in particular. (2) Future climate change brings about a significant impact on the spatial/temporal distribution of water resources in rice producing areas in China. Based on ’pre-designed’ adaptation actions for rice-re-cultivation, the rice cultivation pattern undergoes a significant alteration between 1981-2000 and 2001-2030. In eastern Guizhou and western Hunan, the pattern of single early plus single dry farming is changed into double cropping. In eastern Hunan, the pattern of dry cropping is changed into single early plus single dry farming. In northern Anhui, the pattern of dry farming cropping is changed into middle rice. All this is aimed at a potential adequate availability of water for rice production in the future. (3) Rice re-cultivation patterns developed in this paper help re-balance water demand and supply for rice growth using the spatial analysis tool to adapt rice growth to the changing water avail-ability from spatial perspective, and come up with rice producer-friendly re-cultivation options in response to climate change.     

1990–2010年中国耕地变化对粮食生产潜力的影响分析(英文)

The quantity and spatial pattern of farmland has changed in China, which has led to a major change in the production potential under the influence of the national project of ecological environmental protection and rapid economic growth during 1990–2010. In this study, the production potential in China was calculated based on meteorological, terrain elevation, soil and land-use data from 1990, 2000 and 2010 using the Global Agro-ecological Zones model. Then, changes in the production potential in response to farmland changes from 1990 to 2010 were subsequently analyzed. The main conclusions were the following. First, the total production potential was 1.055 billion tons in China in 2010. Moreover, the average production potential was 7614 kg/ha and showed tremendous heterogeneity in spatial pattern. Total production in eastern China was high, whereas that in northwestern China was low. The regions with high per unit production potential were mainly distributed over southern China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Second, the obvious spatiotemporal heterogeneity in farmland changes from 1990 to 2010 had a significant influence on the production potential in China. The total production potential decreased in southern China and increased in northern China. Furthermore, the center of growth of the production potential moved gradually from northeastern China to northwestern China. The net decrease in the production potential was 2.97 million tons, which occupied 0.29% of the national total actual production in 2010. Third, obvious differences in the production potential in response to farmland changes from 1990 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2010 were detected. The net increase in the production potential during the first decade was 10.11 million tons and mainly distributed in the Northeast China Plain and the arid and semi-arid regions of northern China. The net decrease in the production potential during the next decade was 13.08 million tons and primarily distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River region and the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. In general, the reason for the increase in the production potential during the past two decades might be due to the reclamation of grasslands, woodlands and unused land, and the reason for the decrease in the production potential might be urbanization that occupied the farmland and Green for Grain Project, which returned farmland to forests and grasslands.     

Spatiotemporal evolution of urban carbon emission performance in China and prediction of future trends

Climate change resulting from CO_2 emissions has become an important global environmental issue in recent years.Improving carbon emission performance is one way to reduce carbon emissions.Although carbon emission performance has been discussed at the national and industrial levels,city-level studies are lacking due to the limited availability of statistics on energy consumption.In this study,based on city-level remote sensing data on carbon emissions in China from 1992–2013,we used the slacks-based measure of super-efficiency to evaluate urban carbon emission performance.The traditional Markov probability transfer matrix and spatial Markov probability transfer matrix were constructed to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of urban carbon emission performance in China for the first time and predict long-term trends in carbon emission performance.The results show that urban carbon emission performance in China steadily increased during the study period with some fluctuations.However,the overall level of carbon emission performance remains low,indicating great potential for improvements in energy conservation and emission reduction.The spatial pattern of urban carbon emission performance in China can be described as"high in the south and low in the north,"and significant differences in carbon emission performance were found between cities.The spatial Markov probabilistic transfer matrix results indicate that the transfer of carbon emission performance in Chinese cities is stable,resulting in a"club convergence"phenomenon.Furthermore,neighborhood backgrounds play an important role in the transfer between carbon emission performance types.Based on the prediction of long-term trends in carbon emission performance,carbon emission performance is expected to improve gradually over time.Therefore,China should continue to strengthen research and development aimed at improving urban carbon emission performance and achieving the national energy conservation and emission reduction goals.Meanwhile,neighboring cities with different neighborhood backgrounds should pursue cooperative economic strategies that balance economic growth,energy conservation,and emission reductions to realize low-carbon construction and sustainable development.     

中国城市新区的空间生产及其演化逻辑（英文）

New Urban Districts(NUDs) are the important spatial carriers to promote urban expansion or transformation. Since the 1990 s, they have been playing a more and more crucial role in China's urbanization. For NUDs in the strict sense we found that: 96% to the east of Hu Line; 56% within the municipal districts; 64% within 36 km from their every city center and below the area of 423 km~2. The regional distribution follows significant spatial difference as "Eastern Region(50%) – Central Region(42%) – Western Region(8%)", and the provinces with the largest number of NUDs are Guangdong, Henan, Zhejiang, Liaoning, and Jiangsu. Furthermore, their interesting constructed process highlights the typical characteristics of spatial production and spatial dialectic. This paper uses the theory of the production of space, and discovers that the growth of NUDs is a rapid ternary dialectical process of spatial production: "representations of space" is guided by the top-down governmental power; "spatial practice" is reflected in the hierarchical and regional difference of spatial elements, such as the type, pattern, distance and area of NUD; "spaces of representation" embodies the tension between governmental power and urban development rights, as well as the countermeasure mechanism. The extensibility of spatiotemporal sequences ensures the unity and continuity of spatial(re)production of NUDs. However, this is also facing a series of challenges like the management coordination of administrative division and the increasing unbalanced or inadequate development. Thus, critically rethinking the evolution of NUD is the key basis for achieving sustainable urban renewal and regional orderly development in the new era.     

广东省乡村聚落空间分布的影响机制及研究内容框架展望（英文）

Based on land use classification data of remote sensing images, using kernel density, the minimal cumulative resistance model of road traffic accessibility, and a logistic regression model, the characteristics of the spatial pattern and the main factors influencing it were quantitatively examined in Guangdong Province from 1990 to 2013. The framework of the research concerning rural settlement evolution and its effect mechanisms were also discussed and generalized for the future. The results are as follows:(1) The spatial distribution of rural settlements showed spatial directivity of low altitude, low slope, and adjacent to rivers, as well as to villages and towns; thus a special pattern was formed, which was dense on the plains, sparse in mountainous areas, and included two core high density regions of rural settlements in the Chaoshan plain in the east and the Zhanjiang plain tableland region in the west. The spatial distribution of rural settlements was located along the rivers, valleys, and roads with traffic in the mountainous regions surrounding the Pearl River Delta region.(2) In addition to the spatial orientation of the open road, it was important to show that the accessibility of road traffic to the township has had the greatest influence on the spatial distribution of the rural settlements. The connected transport network between towns and villages is significant for rural transformation as a comprehensive increase in township production and service capacity will be the key to optimizing the town-village system in rural areas.(3) Elevation and slope were two basic but influential factors that have affected the distribution, scale, and form of rural settlements. The attributes of the physical geography are the first elements in optimizing village layout and planning spatial reconstruction.(4) In the current Internet and social media era, the reconstruction of market network system orders connects with the global market network system in rural areas. The rural life service circle will be constructed with the township at its core to explore the theory and practice of spatial reconstruction, including its production, life and ecology, and socio-cultural heritage and protection. It will also allow for exploration of the rural settlements' evolution, rural spatial production, rural social networks, group behavior, social autonomy, and social and cultural fields, which will bethe core focus of China's rural spatial reconstruction research against a background of globalization.     

中国能源生态效率的空间格局与空间效应（英文）

Energy eco-efficiency is a concept integrating ecological and economic benefits arising from energy utilization and serves as a measure of efficiency in the energy–environment–economy system. Using the slacks-based measure(SBM) model considering undesirable output, this study first measures the energy eco-efficiency of provinces in China from 1997 to 2012. It then analyzes the spatial distribution and evolution of energy eco-efficiency from three aspects: scale, intensity, and grain of spatial patterns. Finally, it examines the spatial spillover effects and influencing factors of energy eco-efficiency in different provinces by means of a spatial econometric model. The following conclusions are drawn:(1) The overall energy eco-efficiency is relatively low in China, with energy-inefficient regions accounting for about 40%. Guangdong, Hainan and Fujian provinces enjoy the highest energy eco-efficiency, while Ningxia, Gansu, Qinghai, and Xinjiang are representative regions with low efficiency. Thus, the pattern of evolution of China's overall energy eco-efficiency is U-shaped. Among local regions, four main patterns of evolution are found: increasing, fluctuating, mutating, and leveling.(2) At the provincial level, China's energy eco-efficiency features significant spatial agglomeration both globally and locally. High–high agglomeration occurs mainly in the eastern and southern coastal regions and low–low agglomeration in the northwestern region and the middle reaches of the Yellow River. Changes in spatial patterns have occurred mainly in areas with high–low and low–high agglomeration, with the most remarkable change taking place in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region.(3) There exist significant spatial effects of energy eco-efficiency among provinces in China. For the energy eco-efficiency of a given region, spatial spillovers from adjacent regions outweigh the influence of errors in adjacent regions. Industrial structure has the greatest influence on energy eco-efficiency.     

中国能源消费碳排放的空间计量分析(英文)

Based on energy consumption data of each region in China from 1997 to 2009 and using ArcGIS9.3 and GeoDA9.5 as technical support,this paper made a preliminary study on the changing trend of spatial pattern at regional level of carbon emissions from energy con-sumption,spatial autocorrelation analysis of carbon emissions,spatial regression analysis between carbon emissions and their influencing factors.The analyzed results are shown as follows.(1) Carbon emissions from energy consumption increased more than 148% from 1997 to 2009 but the spatial pattern of high and low emission regions did not change greatly.(2) The global spatial autocorrelation of carbon emissions from energy consumption in-creased from 1997 to 2009,the spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there exists a "polarization" phenomenon,the centre of "High-High" agglomeration did not change greatly but expanded currently,the centre of "Low-Low" agglomeration also did not change greatly but narrowed currently.(3) The spatial regression analysis showed that carbon emissions from energy consumption has a close relationship with GDP and population,R-squared rate of the spatial regression between carbon emissions and GDP is higher than that between carbon emissions and population.The contribution of population to carbon emissions in-creased but the contribution of GDP decreased from 1997 to 2009.The carbon emissions spillover effect was aggravated from 1997 to 2009 due to both the increase of GDP and population,so GDP and population were the two main factors which had strengthened the spatial autocorrelation of carbon emissions.     

资源环境承载力综合评价方法在西藏产业结构调整中的应用

With the degradation of natural resources and environment caused by industrial development in some developing countries,the requirement of implementing a“social ecological”approach to development is imminent.Resource and environment carrying capacity provides a means of assessing regional development potential by measuring regional sustainable development in terms of economy,population and resources&environment.This study develops a conceptual framework for resource and environment carrying capacity estimation to support the co-development planning of industries,population and resources&environment.First,the framework constructs an index system for evaluating importance of industry or influence based on the role of industry played in the local socio-economic system.Then,the framework computes the quantitative relations through the importance of local industry,population size and resource utilization and environment effects,and subsequently estimates the resource and environment carrying capacity of the study area.With a particular attention to its land resources,water resources and environment,the Tibet case study shows that:the non-ferrous metal mining,tourism,liquor and refined tea industries play a pillar role in the Tibet’s socio-economic system;under each industrial structure,land resource carrying capacity is the weakest,and water resources carrying capacity is the strongest;to focus on tourism will improve local resource and environment carrying capacity.The research results provide a solid guide for Tibet government’s co-actions in industrial restructuring,ecological protection,and the pursuit of economic development.This study will contribute to bridge the gap between theoretical research and practical applications of resource and environment carrying capacity,and help local governments plan the regional“socio-ecological”sustainable development.     

厦门岛城市空间扩张特征及其影响因素

Most of the world’s cities are concentrated in coastal areas. As a special geographical component of the coastal system, island urban spatial expansion is the outcome of interactions between city development and the physical environment. This paper takes Xiamen Island, located in Southeastern China, as an example to analyze island urban spatial expansion and its determinants by combining an analysis of the literature on urban development policies, urban overall plans, population growth and industrial development, with geographical information analysis using historical maps and remote sensing photographs. Firstly, we reviewed the history of the Xiamen City development during the last 100 years, which can be divided into four periods: the embryonic modern city and early development from 1908 to 1949; administrative boundary expansion and infrastructure development from 1950 to 1979; special economic zone construction and rapid urbanization from 1980 to 2003; and Bay City construction since 2003. The dynamic changes to the coastline, island shape, built-up area, transportation, administrative division, and major land use type conversion which occurred during approximately the past 100 years were analyzed and the characteristics of the island urban spatial expansion were concluded: early expansion from a central point, followed by expansion along a section of coastline, and expansion from the coastline inland. Secondly, we discussed the potential determinants of island urban spatial expansion including administrative division adjustment, urban master planning revision, industrial development, topographical factors, coastal area reclamation, transportation expansion, and population growth. Finally, the effects of each potential determinant on island urban spatial expansion were concluded. Island urban spatial expansion is the result of a synthesis of natural and socio-economic factors which are not independent but interacting. Built-up area expansion is the major driver of island land cover and land use changes. By this paper, we hope to provide a scientific reference contributing to the rational understanding of island and coastal sustainable urbanization in China, and the world beyond.     

发展地理学视角下中国区域均衡发展

Large regional differences and uneven regional development are fundamental challenges for China. Balanced regional development is an important issue in research on development geography. This study reviews the course of balanced regional development in China and summarizes its characteristics in each period. The results show that inter-regional development in China has undergone successive periods of balanced and unbalanced development. Each period has enhanced social development and contributed to a more balanced regional development. This paper discusses the scientific connotation of balanced regional development, and invokes sustainable development theory to argue that we should pay attention to the differences in resource endowments among regions, and solves the imbalance among the economy, humans, and nature to promote the spatial balance of regional development and green development for better coordination between economy and ecology. The balanced promotion of the well-being of people in each region is the ultimate goal of balanced regional development. We then use concepts from development geography to examine China’s path of balanced regional development from the three perspectives of society, the economy, and ecology. Suggestions are also provided for the balanced development of China’s regions and the improvement of public well-being.     

Research on the suitability of population distribution at the provincial scale in China

The relationship between population distribution and resources, environment and social-economic development has a significant influence on the human development. This paper set up a set of index system and model methods for the assessment of the coordination between population and resources, environment and social-economic development, and it quantitatively evaluated this coordination at the provincial scale in 2000 and 2010 respectively Based on this set of index system, the suitability degree and the spatial-temporal pattern of population distribution at the provincial scale were carefully characterized. The restriction of population distribution at the provincial scale was graded and classified, and the coordinated development strategy of population, resources, environment and social economy was finally put forward. The results showed that： （1） The environmental suitability of population distribu- tion at the provincial scale was generally high in China, which tended to be stable from 2000 to 2010. （2） The restriction of water and land resources at the provincial scale was generally strong in China, but it tended to be weak from 2000 to 2010. （3） The coordination degree between the social-economic development and population distribution at the provincial scale was mostly at a middle level, which was in the positive upward path from 2000 to 2010. （4） The suitability of population distribution at the provincial scale was mostly at a middle level, all of which was rising from 2000 to 2010. （5） The coordination degree between population dis- tribution and resources, environment and social-economic development at the provincial scale was divided into four grades, including basic coordination, relative coordination, awaited coordination and urgent-needed coordination. （6） The basic ways to promote the coordinated development of population, resources and environment in different regions in China can be summarized as： implementing the strategy of population agglomeration and evacuation, guiding the orderly flow of population, optimizing the spatial distribution of popu- lation and drawing up the spatial planning of population development.     

Vulnerability of an inland river basin water resource system under the background of future accelerated glacier melt: A case of Yarkent River Basin in arid Northwest China

Water resources of inland river basins of arid Northwest China will be profoundly affected by future accelerated glacier melt. Based on scenarios of climate warming, accelerated glacier melt and socioeconomic development in the future, vulnerability of the Yarkent River Basin water resources for 2010–2030 is evaluated quantitatively using the indicator of water deficiency ratio. Results show that the quantity of the basin’s water resources will continuously increase over the next 20 years, mainly due to the effect of climate warming and accelerated glacier melt. But, in the next 10 years, the basin will have a deficient water status, and the water resource system will be quite vulnerable. This is due to an increased water demand from rapidly increasing socioeconomic development and a lack of low water-use efficiency in the near future. After about 2020, water supply will outstrip demand, greatly relieving the basin’s water deficient due to increased water resources and the advancement of water-saving technology. Contrast to the hypothetical situation of unchanged glacier melt, climate warming and resulting accelerated glacier melt may play a role in relieving the supply-demand strain to some extent.     

Economic reform, open-door policy and changes in spatial development patterns in China

1 IntroductionA country's regional development pattern is inevitably shaped by the regional development policies its government adopts. In planned economies like China's, the government's role in determining spatial differences of regional development is particularly great[1]. Since the inception of the economic reform and open-door policy in the late 1970s China has been undergoing an unprecedented transition from a planned to a market-oriented economy and from an agrarian society to an urba…     

塔里木河流域绿洲城镇发展与水土资源效益分析(英文)

This paper examines the spatial pattern of land and water resources as well as urbanization and their interactions in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China. In order to do so, we extract the data associated with efficiency of land and water resources and urbanization for the years of 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2008. Specifically the paper investigates the extent to which agglomeration of population and economic activities varies geographically and interplays with spatial pattern of resources efficiency through computation of Global Moran’s I index, Getis-Ord Gi* index and a coordinated development model. The method used provides clear evidence that urbanization, land and water resources efficiency have shown uneven spatial pattern due to oasis distribution, climate, and initial phase of urban development. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows.(1) Agglomeration and dispersion of urbanization are not consistent with those of land and water resources efficiency.(2) Evolution of the hot and cold spots of urbanization, and land and water resources efficiency, in different trajectories, indicate that there are no significant interactions between them.(3) The evidence that numbers of hot and cold spots of the three factors present varying structures reveals the dominance of unequal urban development in the study area.(4) Significant differences are also found between sub-river basins in terms of the three factors, which is a reflection of the complex physical geography of the area.(5) The degree of coordinated development of cities in the Tarim River Basin is generally low in part as a reflection of difference in spatial patterns of the three factors. It is also shown that the pattern of the degree of coordinated development is relatively stable compared with evolution of hot and cold spots of the three factors.     

20世纪90年代以来世界能源安全时空格局演化过程（英文）

In this study, we developed an energy security evaluation model(ESEM) from three dimensions, energy supply-transport security, safety of energy utilization, and stability of political-socioeconomic environment, based on the integrated application of subjective and objective weight allocation technique. Then the spatial-temporal evolution of global energy security pattern and its driving mechanism was analyzed with the method above, and the results are shown as follows:(1) since the 1990 s, the spatial patterns of global energy security have shown a deteriorating trend, with the growth of countries in at-risk type and relatively at-risk type.(2) The spatial distribution of countries with secure energy system shows a strong stability, and these countries are concentrated persistently in Western Europe and North America. The spatial evolution of countries with relatively secure energy system also presents a strong stability, which are mainly distributed in the periphery of the secure ones, namely Central and Southern Europe, South America and Eurasia, while countries with general energy system are mainly distributed in Asia, Africa and Southern Europe, and the spatial-temporal evolution of this type is the main cause for the deterioration of world energy security pattern. Countries with at-risk and relatively at-risk energy system are mainly concentrated in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Eurasia, rendering spatial extension to the east and south.(3) In the past 20 years, the mechanism for world's energy security pattern formation gradually transforms from the ‘unitary dimension dominated' to the ‘binary dimension-dominated', and the main factors influencing the global energy security pattern become more diverse.(4) In the pattern of world's energy security, China's performance on energy security has been the global average since the 1990 s, which shows a decreasing trend in safety of energy utilization dimension. Findings in this study can provide a reference for the government in terms of formulating strategic responses and policy options.     

黑河流域生态水文过程的观测-模型-数据分析集成研究专辑前言（英文）

Research on ecological-hydrological processes in arid/semiarid environments mainly focuses on the following aspects: 1) evolution of the current environments,2) impacts of hu? man activities and climate change,and 3) sustainable development.In the last decades,with the support of China's top science and research agencies/institutes (e.g.,Ministry of Science and Technology,MOST;National Science Foundation China,NSFC;Chinese Academy of Science,CAS),multiple integrated research projects that aim to address the above issues have been initiated from both engineering and scientific perspectives.For example,supported by the NSFC's "China's Western Region Environment and Ecology Science Research Project",in China's northwest arid region,Loess Plateau region and the southwest karst region,four key research themes have been proposed: 1) evolution and development of China's western environment,2) water cycle and sustainable use of water resources,3) ecosystem sustainability,and 4) the impact of major constructions/projects on the environment.In addition,“Heihe River Basin Integrated Water Resources Management Research Project" has been the key research project supported by the CAS,which aims to improve water use efficiency,sustain the oasis ecosystem,develop the integrated irrigation water technology,improve water resources management,protect wetland and help with the river basin water management and decision making.     

Performance evaluation of resource-based city transformation:A case study of energy-enriched areas in Shaanxi,Gansu,and Ningxia

Resource-based cities are important bases for resources and energy in China.However, the world and the country’s sustainable development goals require them to undergo transformation. The complexity of this transformation poses challenges for these cities. This study aims to evaluate the transformation performance of resource-based cities in Shaanxi,Gansu, and Ningxia. The findings will help understand their capabilities and achievements in transformation and provide guidance for future transform...     

Analysis and prediction of household carbon emission in northwest China北大核心CSCD

The economic development, living standard of residents and carbon emissions in Northwest China are lower than the national average. However,with the favorable policies the economic development is being improved and the household living standard is gradually raised up which will lead to an increase of the residents living carbon emissions, and the emission pattern will also be affected. This is detrimental to the fragile ecological environment of the Northwest China. At present, most of the researches on residents' carbon emissions are focused on the eastern and southern regions of China where there are frequent and significant human activities and high carbon emissions, and less attention has been paid to the northwest region, but the increase of carbon emissions and the increase of environmental costs have a more far-reaching impact on the less developed areas. In addition, when researchers pay attention to the prediction of residents' carbon emissions, they usually focus on the quantitative prediction and ignore the spatial pattern prediction, which is not conducive to the coordinated development between regions. Based on the data of energy consumption and consumption expenditure in the five provinces of Northwest China, including Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang from 1997 to 2016, this paper firstly used the direct coefficient method to measure the residents' direct carbon emissions, and the input-output method to calculate the indirect carbon emissions of the residents and analyzes the present situation of residents' carbon emissions in the northwest region. Secondly, based on standard deviation ellipse and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model, the carbon emissions of residents in Northwest China were predicted in terms of quantity and spatial pattern from 2017 to 2021. Major results are listed as follows: From 1997 to 2016, household carbon emissions in Northwest China showed a rising trend with an initial slow pace followed by a quick pace. The direct carbon emissions were stabilized in the range from 0. 3 × 108 t to 0. 4 × 108 t,and the indirect carbon emissions reached 2. 38 × 108 t. The spatial distribution of household carbon emissions in Northwest China was generally steady with a direction pattern from northwest to southeast. And the moving trend of standard deviation ellipse was from northwest to southeast to northwest, and the center of standard deviation ellipse moved around the point of (99. 07 °E,38. 19°N). From 2017 to 2021, the direct household carbon emissions in Northwest China reach to 0.543 × 108 t and the indirect carbon emissions are 3. 631 × 108 t by 2021. With the development of the western region in China and the promotion of poverty alleviation,Xinjiang Province had a lower emission than Shaanxi,but it had the higher growth rate than Shaanxi. These factors are all driving the main areas of carbon emission northwestward. The purpose of this paper is to recommend how to coordinate between the population and consumption and the environment, leading citizens to establish the value of low-carbon consumption. © 2019 Science Press (China). All rights reserved.