应对海平面上升与地面沉降迭加引发的地质灾害与生态环境问题

海平面上升已引起各国政府和科技界的高度关注。预计未来30年,浙江沿海海平面将比2009年升高88~140 mm。海平面上升与浙江沿海平原地面沉降迭加将进一步恶化地质与生态系统,引发许多灾害问题,制约沿海区域经济社会的可持续发展。本文主要就如何应对海平面上升与地面沉降迭加引发的地质灾害链与生态环境问题进行了探讨,认为要从地球系统科学角度,重视对陆-海相互作用机制与生态环境效应的研究,着手考虑建立陆海(包括入海河流)统筹的海岸带地质与生态环境监测评价系统。     

格陵兰岛冰盖消融时空特征(2003~2015年)及其对海平面上升的贡献

研究格陵兰冰盖（GrIS）质量变化异常速率可以帮助了解异常气候事件驱动海平面变化的机制.聚焦于2010~2012年GrIS质量变化的异常速率,及其对海平面指纹（SLF）和相对海平面（RSL）变化的贡献.通过联合2003~2015年GRACE月重力场数据和表面质量平衡（SMB）数据,采用mascon拟合法及网格尺度因子恢复泄漏,获得了6个流域的质量变化时空分布.基于海平面变化方程（SLE）并考虑负荷自吸引效应估算了SLF的空间分布.结果表明,2003~2015年间GrIS总质量变化速率分别为-288±7 Gt/a及-275±1 Gt/a;而在2010~2012年间速率相应地增加至-456±30 Gt/a及-464±38 Gt/a,该时期格陵兰西北海岸及东南沿海地区呈现出大量冰盖融化,其对海平面的贡献变化呈现倒“V”型（即先升后降）,而全球平均海平面变化呈现出明显的正“V”型（即先降后升）.另外,GrIS融化对海平面的贡献约为31%,造成全球平均RSL增加了0.07 cm/a,而对斯堪的纳维亚及北欧地区的RSL贡献为-0.6 cm/a,GrIS融化造成的远海地区RSL上升速率比全球平均RSL速率高近30%.      

中国大型水库蓄水对近海相对海平面空间变化的影响

通过对我国大型水库蓄水的时空特征进行深入分析, 统计得到近60年来大型水库蓄水累积的库容量已达到697km3, 占全国所有水库库容量的83.3%及全球库容量的6.5%;而2000年以来的大型水库数量及蓄水量的变化有明显的加速, 库容量的变化率为16.7km3/a, 远高于1950年到2000年的4.9km3/a的增长率; 同时借助卫星重力(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE)观测手段, 对2000年以后主要分布在长江流域以南地区的水库进行水储量估算, 结果显示GRACE仅能估算得到63%的水库变化量, 两者之间的差异可能反映了该地区地下水的长期变化. 结合大型水库的分布位置与库容量, 基于海平面变化方程计算得到了中国近海相对海平面的空间变化. 水库蓄水导致的渤海与东南沿海海域的相对海平面上升明显, 最大上升高度约为8mm; 而2000年以后的水库对海平面的影响主要集中在东南沿海, 其中南海海域较为突出, 上升高度约为2~3mm, 在此期间蓄水造成的近海不同验潮站位置的海平面增长速度在0.02~0.11mm/a之间变化.      

Isolation basin stratigraphy and Holocene relative sea-level change on Arveprinsen Ejland,Disko Bugt,West Greenland

This paper presents the results of an investigation into Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) change, isostatic rebound and ice sheet dynamics in Disko Bugt, West Greenland. Data collected from nine isolation basins on Arveprinsen Ejland, east Disko Bugt, show that mean sea level fell continuously from ca. 70 m at 9.9 ka cal. yr BP (8.9 ka ¹⁴C yr BP) to reach a minimum of ca. −5 m at 2.8 ka cal. yr BP (2.5 ka ¹⁴C yr BP), before rising to the present day. A west–east gradient in isostatic uplift across Disko Bugt is confirmed, with reduced rebound observed in east Disko Bugt. However, RSL differences (up to 20 m at 7.8 ka to 6.8 ka cal. yr BP (7 ka to 6 ka ¹⁴C yr BP)) also exist within east Disko Bugt, suggesting a significant north–south component to the area’s isostatic history. The observed magnitude and timing of late Holocene RSL rise is not compatible with regional forebulge collapse. Instead, RSL rise began first in the eastern part of the bay, as might be expected under a scenario of crustal subsidence caused by neoglacial ice sheet readvance. The results of this study demonstrate the potential of isolation basin data for local and regional RSL studies in Greenland, and the importance of avoiding data compilations from areas where the isobase orientation is uncertain. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mid‐ to late Holocene relative sea‐level change in Poole Harbour,southern England

A foraminiferal transfer function for mean tide level (MTL) is used in combination with AMS radiocarbon dated material to construct a record of relative sea‐level (RSL) change from Poole Harbour, southern Britain. These new data, based on multiple cores from duplicate sites, indicate four phases of change during the last 5000 cal. (calendar) yr: (i) rising RSL between ca. 4700 cal. yr BP and ca. 2400 cal. yr BP; (ii) stable to falling RSL from ca. 2400 cal. yr BP until ca. 1200 cal. yr BP; (iii) a brief rise in RSL from ca. 1200 cal. yr BP to ca. 900 cal. yr BP, followed by a period of stability; (iv) a recent increase in the rate of RSL rise from ca. 400–200 cal. yr BP until the present day. In addition, they suggest that the region has experienced long‐term crustal subsidence at a rate of 0.5 mm C¹⁴ yr^?1. Although this can account for the overall rise in MTL observed during the past 2500 yr, it fails to explain the changes in the rate of rise during this period. This implies that the phases of RSL change recorded in the marshes of Poole Harbour reflect tidal range variations or ‘eustatic’ fluctuations in sea‐level. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

未来江苏中部沿海相对海面变化预测

相对海面变化是由全球绝对海面变化和区域性地面和海面因素共同控制。通过对江苏沿海近几十年来的潮位记录的分析,得出江苏沿海近期的相对海面变化速率。在此基础上根据近期绝对海面的变化速率计算出局地因素对江苏沿海相对海面变化的贡献量。在假设未来局地因素影响基本不变的前提下与IPCC对未来100年绝对海面的变化趋势 进行叠加,预测了江苏沿海未来相对海面变化的趋势。结果显示,江苏中部沿海海面在2000-2100年的100年间将上升15～152 cm,较IPCC对同期全球平均海平面上升的预测结果大的多。最后就区域性海面气压对相对海面变化的影响进行了讨论。     

A rapid rise in relative sea level ~9–7 cal ka bp along the SW Cumbria coast,NW England

Along the macro-tidal (10.7 m tide range) SW Cumbria coast in situ rooted tree stumps are infrequently exposed below present-day low Spring Tide elevations (≤−4.5 m OD). To date these remnants, we conducted a salvage operation at two sites on in situ rooted tree stumps exposed below the lowest tide levels; these sites are no longer exposed. We obtained four radiocarbon dates on these tree remnants and reference an earlier site recovered in 1972. One wood sample was identified as Quercus robur or Q. petraea, while samples from Haverigg and Kirby-in-Furness are tree Salix spp. The median group age for the rising relative sea level (RSL) that killed the trees was 8602 ± 243 bp cal a bp with an estimated Mean Tide Level (MTL) of ~≤−9 m. Evidence indicates that RSL rose ~10 m along this section of coast at a rate of between of between 18.5 and 8.7 mm a^–1 until ~6800 cal a bp , or earlier, before the rate of global sea level rise fell below that of the local glacial isostatic recovery. The transgression is coeval with rapid collapse and deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet in Hudson's Bay and slightly lags the global Meltwater Pulse-1C.     

Sea-level rise and shoreline retreat of the Nile Delta promontories, Egypt

Studies of the Nile Delta coast have indicated wide values of local subsidence, ranging from 0.4 to 5 mm/yr. Trend analysis of sea-level rise and shoreline retreat at two Nile Delta promontories have been studied. Records from tide gauges at Alexandria (1944–1989) and Port Said (1926–1987), north of the Nile delta coast, indicate a submergence of the land and/or a rise of the sea-level of 2 and 2.4 mm/yr, respectively.Dramatic erosion has occurred on some beaches of the Nile Delta. This is greatest at the tips of the Rosetta and Damietta promontories, with shoreline retreat up to 58 m/yr. Relationship between the shoreline retreat and sea level trends in terms of correlation analysis and application of the Bruun Rule indicates that the sea level rise has, by itself, a relatively minor effect on coastal erosion. The sea-level trend at the Nile delta coast is found to be only one of several effects on shoreline retreat. Major recent effects include a combination of cut-off of sediment supply to the coast by damming the River Nile and local hydrodynamic forces of waves and currents. Estimates of local future sea-level rise by the year 2100 at Alexandria and Port Said, respectively, is expected to be 37.9 and 44.2 cm. These expectations, combined with other factors, could accelerate coastal erosion, inundate wetlands and lowlands, and increase the salinity of lakes and aquifers.     

Lateglacial to Holocene relative sea‐level changes in the Stykkishólmur area,northern Snæfellsnes,Iceland

Comparatively little research has been undertaken on relative sea‐level (RSL) change in western Iceland. This paper presents the results of diatom, tephrochronological and radiocarbon analyses on six isolation basins and two coastal lowland sediment cores from the Stykkishólmur area, northern Snæfellsnes, western Iceland. The analyses provide a reconstruction of Lateglacial to mid‐Holocene RSL changes in the region. The marine limit is measured to 65–69 m above sea level (asl), with formation being estimated at 13.5 cal ka BP. RSL fall initially occurred rapidly following marine limit formation, until ca. 12.6 cal ka BP, when the rate of RSL fall decreased. RSL fell below present in the Stykkishólmur area during the early Holocene (by ca. 10 cal ka BP). The rates of RSL change noted in the Stykkishólmur area demonstrate lesser ice thicknesses in Snæfellsnes than Vestfirðir during the Younger Dryas, when viewed in the regional context. Consequently, the data provide an insight into patterns of glacio‐isostatic adjustment surrounding Breiðafjörður, a hypothesized major ice stream at the Last Glacial Maximum.     

海平面上升对我国沿海低地的影响

介绍了影响我国沿海低地相对海平面上升的因素,讨论了相对海平面上升对我国海岸侵蚀、沿海低地淹没等影响以及风险等级划分的若干问题。     

Evidence of regional subsidence and associated interior wetland loss induced by hydrocarbon production, Gulf Coast region, USA

Analysis of remote images, elevation surveys, stratigraphic cross-sections, and hydrocarbon production data demonstrates that extensive areas of wetland loss in the northern Gulf Coast region of the United States were associated with large-volume fluid production from mature petroleum fields. Interior wetland losses at many sites in coastal Louisiana and Texas are attributed largely to accelerated land subsidence and fault reactivation induced by decreased reservoir pressures as a result of rapid or prolonged extraction of gas, oil, and associated brines. Evidence that moderately-deep hydrocarbon production has induced land-surface subsidence and reactivated faults that intersect the surface include: (1) close temporal and spatial correlation of fluid production with surficial changes including rapid subsidence of wetland sediments near producing fields, (2) measurable offsets of shallow strata across the zones of wetland loss, (3) large reductions in subsurface pressures where subsidence rates are high, (4) coincidence of orientation and direction of displacement between surface fault traces and faults that bound the reservoirs, and (5) accelerated subsidence rates near producing fields compared to subsidence rates in surrounding areas or compared to geological rates of subsidence. Based on historical trends, subsidence rates in the Gulf Coast region near producing fields most likely will decrease in the future because most petroleum fields are nearly depleted. Alternatively, continued extraction of conventional energy resources as well as potential production of alternative energy resources (geopressured-geothermal fluids) in the Gulf Coast region could increase subsidence and land losses and also contribute to inundation of areas of higher elevation.     

环渤海海平面上升与三角洲湿地保护

环渤海地区三角洲是我国滨海重要的湿地发育区,在淤泥质滩地型湿地上发育着众多的动、植物群落,成为若干珍稀水禽的栖息地。从地面垂直形变与潮位资料等分析,黄河三角洲和辽河三角洲的地面下降速率为3～4mm/a和3.5～4.5mm/a,而相对海平面上升速率为45～5.5mm/a和5～6mm/a,预计至2050年总体的相对海平面上升量可达40～55cm。海平面上升对三角洲湿地的影响首先是直接淹没大片农田、油井和市区,其次是加剧海岸线的侵蚀与后退,还有风暴潮与洪涝灾害的加剧。针对三角洲湿地生态系统所面临的生态风险与人为活动干扰,有必要采取更加科学合理的保护与开发模式。本文介绍了生境更新与湿地调整的管理策略,以及淤长型滨海湿地的滚动开发模式。交替采用“渐进”与“跃进”的滚动开发,可保持湿地总量的动态平衡,有利于三角洲的可持续发展。     

Land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal: potential damage of subsidence and sea level rise in southern New Jersey, USA

 Land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal combined with a global sea level rise creates a serious environmental problem in the coastal region. Groundwater withdrawal results in fluid pressure change in the layers. The pressure change in the layers induces both elastic and inelastic land compaction. The elastic compaction can be recovered if the water level rises again and inelastic compaction becomes permanent. Groundwater response to barometric pressure change is used to estimate the elastic compaction in this study. The storativity, specific storage and other layer and hydrological information are used to estimate the inelastic compaction of the layers due to fluid withdrawal. The discussed methods are applied to estimate and predict the subsidence potentials resulting from overdrafting of the groundwater in the southern New Jersey. The estimated subsidence is about 2–3 cm near the location of monitoring wells in Atlantic, Camden, Cumberland and Cape May Counties over the past 20 years. If the current trend of water-level drop continues, the average subsidence in southern New Jersey in the vicinity of some monitoring wells will be about 3 cm in the next 20 years. The rise of global sea level is about 2 mm/year on average. Because of the very gentle slope in southern NJ, the combination of subsidence and sea level rise will translate into a potentially substantial amount of land loss in the coastal region in each 20 year period. This combination will also accelerate the coastal flooding frequency and the erosion rate of the New Jersey coastal plain, and pose a serious threat to the coastal economy. Received: 15 December 1997 · Accepted: 30 June 1998     

Tide gauge records,water level rise,and subsidence in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

Long-term water level changes in the northern Gulf of Mexico were examined using tide gauge records for this century. Strong coherence exists between the annual mean water changes at Galveston, Texas, and (1) the relatively geologically-stable west coast of Florida, (2) global mean sea level, and 93) the subsiding Louisiana coast. Water levels at the Galveston gauge, one of the longest records (81 yr), have risen steadily, but not accelerated over the long-term. The apparent acceleration of water rise in the recent two decades is within the historical pattern, and is probably driven by regional or global, but not local climatic factors. Because eustatic sea level has risen steadily this century, the analysis supports the conclusion that regional geologic subsidence has not varied significantly over the tide gauge record (1909–1988). Variations in the estimates of subsidence in the surface layers are generally consistent with the generally accepted understanding of the geology of deltaic processes on this coast.     

Submerged archaeological sites along the Ionian coast of southeastern Sicily (Italy) and implications for the Holocene relative sea-level change

Precise measurements of submerged archaeological markers in the Siracusa coast (Southeastern Sicily, Italy) provide new data on relative sea-level change during the late Holocene. Four submerged archaeological sites have been studied and investigated through direct observations. Two of them are Greek archaic in age (2.5–2.7 ka) and are now 0.98–1.48 m below sea level; the other two developed during the Bronze age (3.2–3.8 ka) and are now 1.03–1.97 m below sea level. These archaeological data have been integrated with information derived from a submerged speleothem collected in a cave located along the Siracusa coast at − 20 m depth. The positions of the archaeological markers have been measured with respect to present sea level, corrected for tide and pressure at the time of surveys. These data were compared with predicted sea-level rise curves for the Holocene using a glacio-hydro-isostatic model. The comparison with the curve for the southeastern Sicily coast yields a tectonic component of relative sea-level change related to regional uplift. Uplift rates between 0.3 and 0.8 mm/yr have been estimated.     

Late Holocene great earthquakes and relative sea‐level change at Kenai,southern Alaska

Kenai, located on the west coast of the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, subsided during the great earthquake of AD 1964. Regional land subsidence is recorded within the estuarine stratigraphy as peat overlain by tidal silt and clay. Reconstructions using quantitative diatom transfer functions estimate co‐seismic subsidence (relative sea‐level rise) between 0.28±0.28 m and 0.70±0.28 m followed by rapid post‐seismic recovery. Stratigraphy records an earlier co‐seismic event as a second peat‐silt couplet, dated to ～1500–1400 cal. yr BP with 1.14±0.28 m subsidence. Two decimetre‐scale relative sea‐level rises are more likely the result of glacio‐isostatic responses to late Holocene and Little Ice Age glacier expansions rather than to co‐seismic subsidence during great earthquakes. Comparison with other sites around Cook Inlet, at Girdwood and Ocean View, helps in constructing regional patterns of land‐level change associated with three great earthquakes, AD 1964, ～950–850 cal. yr BP and ～1500–1400 cal. yr BP. Each earthquake has a different spatial pattern of co‐seismic subsidence which indicates that assessment of seismic hazard in southern Alaska requires an understanding of multiple great earthquakes, not only the most recent. All three earthquakes show a pre‐seismic phase of gradual land subsidence that marked the end of relative land uplift caused by inter‐seismic strain accumulation. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Holocene and Lateglacial relative sea‐level change in north‐west England: implications for glacial isostatic adjustment models

Relative sea‐level (RSL) change is reconstructed for central Cumbria, UK, based on litho‐ and biostratigraphical analysis from the Lateglacial to the late Holocene. The RSL curve is constrained using ten new radiocarbon‐dated sea‐level index points in addition to published data. The sea‐level curve identifies a clear Lateglacial sea‐level highstand approximately 2.3 m OD at c. 15–17 k cal a BP followed by rapid RSL fall to below ?5 m OD. RSL then rose rapidly during the early Holocene culminating in a mid‐Holocene highstand of approximately 1 m OD at c. 6 k cal a BP followed by gradual fall to the present level. These new data provide an important test for the RSL predictions from glacial isostatic adjustment models, particularly for the Lateglacial where there are very little data from the UK. The new RSL curve shows similar broad‐scale trends in RSL movement predicted by the models. However, the more recent models fail to predict the Lateglacial sea level highstand above present reconstructed by the new data presented here. Future updates to the models are needed to reduce this mismatch. This study highlights the importance for further RSL data to constrain Lateglacial sea level from sites in northern Britain. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Post-glacial relative sea level, isostasy, and glacial history in Icy Strait, Southeast Alaska, USA

We use the radiocarbon ages of marine shells and terrestrial vegetation to reconstruct relative sea level (RSL) history in northern Southeast Alaska. RSL fell below its present level around 13,900 cal yr BP, suggesting regional deglaciation was complete by then. RSL stayed at least several meters below modern levels until the mid-Holocene, when it began a fluctuating rise that probably tracked isostatic depression and rebound caused by varying ice loads in nearby Glacier Bay. This fluctuating RSL rise likely reflects the episodic but progressive advance of ice in Glacier Bay that started around 6000 cal yr BP. After that time, RSL low stands probably signaled minor episodes of glacier retreat/thinning that triggered isostatic rebound and land uplift. Progressive, down-fjord advance of the Glacier Bay glacier during the late Holocene is consistent with the main driver of this glacial system being the dynamics of its terminus rather than climate change directly. Only after the glacier reached an exposed position protruding into Icy Strait ca. AD 1750, did its terminus succumb - a century before the climate changes that marked the end of the Little Ice Age - to the catastrophic retreat that triggered the rapid isostatic rebound and RSL fall occurring today in Icy Strait.     

黄河三角洲地下水动态变化及其与地面沉降的关系

为了分析黄河三角洲地下水动态及其与地面沉降的关系, 利用多年地下水和地面沉降监测数据, 发现黄河三角洲广饶县和东营区的地下水动态变化剧烈且地面沉降严重, 含水层多处于超采状态, 浅、深层地下水降落漏斗先后出现.深层地下水降落漏斗中心水位下降速度达2~3m/a.近年来, 东营和广饶地面沉降漏斗中心沉降量和速率分别为155.1mm、28.2mm/a和356.0mm、64.7mm/a.借助GIS技术及数理统计法, 发现深层地下水降落漏斗与沉降漏斗空间耦合良好, 深层地下水位与地面高程呈线性正相关, 相关系数为0.92, 深层地下水过度开采已成为影响沉降的最根本因素.井灌区第三粘性压缩层成为地面沉降主要贡献层, 且深层地下水降落漏斗中心的地下水位已低于第三承压含水层临界水位, 沉降趋于严重.      

Scale considerations in using diatoms as indicators of sea‐level change: lessons from Alaska

This paper assesses variations in quantitative reconstructions of late Holocene relative sea‐level (RSL) change arising from using modern diatom datasets from different spatial scales, applied to case studies from Alaska. We investigate the implications of model choice in transfer functions using local‐, sub‐regional‐ and regional‐scale modern training sets, and produce recommendations on the creation and selection of modern datasets for reconstructing RSL change over Holocene timescales in tidal marsh environments comparable with those in Alaska. We show that regional modern training sets perform best in terms of providing fossil samples with good modern analogues, and in producing reconstructions that most closely match observations, where these are available. Local training sets are frequently insufficient to provide fossil samples with good modern analogues and may over‐estimate the precision of RSL reconstructions. This is particularly apparent when reconstructing RSL change for periods beyond the last century. For reconstructing RSL change we recommend using regional modern training sets enhanced by local samples. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.