Where now? Reflections on future directions for cosmogenic nuclide research from the CRONUS Projects

The CRONUS-Earth and CRONUS-EU Projects have recently examined the reproducibility of cosmogenic nuclide measurements and the ability of cosmogenic-production models to fit high-quality global calibration data sets. In both cases, although results are adequate for present geochronological needs, they must be improved to meet future demands. We recommend that the cosmogenic-nuclide community embark on a continuing effort to understand the sources of the remaining model-versus-data discrepancy, and that in the meanwhile all cosmogenic ages be benchmarked against reference ages calculated in a consistent fashion. We also recommend that interlaboratory reference materials be routinely analyzed along with samples and blanks, that the results be tracked, and that methods of achieving consistency and precision in sample preparation and analysis be shared within the community. We also recommend additional organization of the community to facilitate the use of intercomparison materials, foster analytical improvements, oversee the evolution of the community age calculator, and synthesize ongoing calibration efforts.     

Can in-situ cosmogenic 14C be used to assess the influence of clast recycling on exposure dating of ice retreat in Antarctica?

Cosmogenic nuclide exposure dating of glacial clasts is becoming a common and robust method for reconstructing the history of glaciers and ice sheets. In Antarctica, however, many samples exhibit cosmogenic nuclide ‘inheritance’ as a result of sediment recycling and exposure to cosmic radiation during previous ice free periods. In-situ cosmogenic ¹⁴C, in combination with longer lived nuclides such as ¹⁰Be, can be used to detect inheritance because the relatively short half-life of ¹⁴C means that in-situ ¹⁴C acquired in exposure during previous interglacials decays away while the sample locality is covered by ice during the subsequent glacial. Measurements of in-situ ¹⁴C in clasts from the last deglaciation of the Framnes Mountains in East Antarctica provide deglaciation ages that are concordant with existing ²⁶Al and ¹⁰Be ages, suggesting that in this area, the younger population of erratics contain limited inheritance.     

Size of anal papillae in chironomids: Does it indicate their salinity stress?

Salinity of inland waters is affected by a range of human activities and is regarded as a major environmental contaminant in many parts of the world. Changes in salinity are well known to be associated with changes in macroinvertebrate communities of flowing waters. However, as many environmental factors co-vary with salinity, it is not known whether, and if so how, salinity causes communities to change. Being able to measure the osmoregulatory stress that individual stream macroinvertebrates are experiencing would be useful to understand if and how salinity affects their populations and thus communities. Additionally, inferring salinity stress in individual invertebrates could provide a valuable biomonitoring tool to detect the initial effects of salinity before major ecological changes have occurred. Osmoregulation in larval Chironomidae (Diptera) takes place in the anal papillae and their size is believed to be associated with osmoregulatory stress. In two laboratory experiments and a field survey in southern Victoria, Australia, we determine if the size of the anal papillae of larva chironomids is a useful biomarker of salinity stress. Experiments with Chironomus oppositus showed that the surface area of the anal papillae was similar in larva hatched across 5 egg masses collected from 3 sites but were affected by salinity treatments. Furthermore, the (transformed) ratio of this surface area to the body length of the larva was independent of the size of C. oppositus. However, for Chironomus cloacalis, this surface area differed between larva hatched from egg masses collected from the same site. The expected trend in surface area of the anal papillae relative to the size of larva (Chironomu alternans, C. cloacalis, Dicrotendipes sp., Criptochironomus sp. and Tanypodinae) was not duplicated in the field survey. It would appear that unknown factors, other than salinity, are affecting the size of the anal papillae of chironomids in southern Victoria.     

Does the duration of the magnetic storm recovery phase depend on the development rate in its main phase? 2. A new method

In contrast to our previous work (Yermolaev et al., 2015), in which we used the magnetic storm recovery phase duration, the exponential time of the recovery phase of magnetic storms generated by three interplanetary driver types (CIR, Sheath, and ICME) is introduced in the present work. The dependence of these times on the storm development rate |Dst_min|/ΔT (where ΔT is the storm main phase duration) is studied. A similar physical result has been achieved despite the different data analysis method used: the times of the storm recovery and development rates correlate for storms induced by CIR and Sheath compression regions, and any relation between these parameters is absent for storms induced by ICME.     

Temporal scaling in river flow: can it be chaotic? / L’invariance d’échelle de l’écoulement fluvial peut-elle être chaotique?

Abstract

Abstract Identification of the presence of scaling in the river flow process has been a challenging problem in hydrology. Studies conducted thus far have viewed this problem essentially from a stochastic perspective, because the river flow process has traditionally been assumed to be a result of a very large number of variables. However, recent studies employing nonlinear deterministic and chaotic dynamic concepts have reported that the river flow process could also be the outcome of a deterministic system with only a few dominant variables. In the wake of such reports, a preliminary attempt is made in this study to investigate the type of scaling behaviour in the river flow process (i.e. chaotic or stochastic). The investigation is limited only to temporal scaling. Flow data of three different scales (daily, 5-day and 7-day) observed in each of three rivers in the USA: the Kentucky River in Kentucky, the Merced River in California and the Stillaguamish River in Washington, are analysed. It is assumed that the dynamic behaviour of the river flow process at these individual scales provides clues about the scaling behaviour between these scales. The correlation dimension is used as an indicator to distinguish between chaotic and stochastic behaviours. The results are mixed with regard to the type of flow behaviour at individual scales and, hence, to the type of scaling behaviour, as some data sets show chaotic behaviour while others show stochastic behaviour. They suggest that characterization (chaotic or stochastic) of river flow should be a necessary first step in any scaling study, as it could provide important information on the appropriate approach for data transformation purposes.     

Predictability in dice motion: how does it differ from hydro-meteorological processes?

ABSTRACT

From ancient times dice have been used to denote randomness. A dice throw experiment is set up in order to examine the predictability of the die orientation through time using visualization techniques. We apply and compare a deterministic-chaotic model and a stochastic model and we show that both suggest predictability in die motion that deteriorates with time, just as in hydro-meteorological processes. Namely, a die’s trajectory can be predictable for short horizons and unpredictable for long ones. Furthermore, we show that the same models can be applied, with satisfactory results, to high temporal resolution time series of rainfall intensity and wind speed magnitude, occurring during mild and strong weather conditions. The difference among the experimental and two natural processes is in the time length of the high-predictability window, which is of the order of 0.1 s, 10 min and 1 h for dice, rainfall and wind processes, respectively.     

Amplification of hydrological model uncertainties in projected climate simulations of the Upper Indus Basin: Does it matter where the water is coming from?

There is a growing appreciation of the uncertainties in the estimation of snow-melt and glacier-melt as a result of climate change in high elevation catchments. Through a detailed examination of three hydrological models in two catchments, and interpretation of results from previous studies, we observed that many variations in estimated streamflow could be explained by the selection of a best parameter set from the possible good model parameters. The importance of understanding changing glacial dynamics is critically important for our study areas in the Upper Indus Basin where Pakistan's policymakers are planning infrastructure to meet the future energy and water needs of hundreds of millions of people downstream. Yet, the effect of climate on glacial runoff and climate on snowmelt runoff is poorly understood. With the HBV model, for example, we estimated glacial melt as between 56% and 89% for the Hunza catchment. When rainfall was a scaled parameter, the models estimated glacial melt as between 20% and 100% of streamflow. These parameter sets produced wildly different projections of future climate for RCP8.5 scenarios in 2046–2075 compared to 1976–2005. Assuming no glacial shrinkage, for one climate projection, we found that the choice among good parameter sets resulted in projected values of future streamflow across a range from +54% to +125%. Parameter selection was the most significant source of uncertainty in the glaciated catchment and amplified climate model uncertainty, whereas climate model choice was more important in the rainfall dominated catchment. Although the study focuses on Pakistan, the overall conclusions are instructive for other similar regions in the world. We suggest that modellers of glaciated catchments should present results from at least the book-ends: models with low sensitivity to ice-melt and models with high sensitivity to ice-melt. This would reduce confusion among decision makers when they are faced with similar contrasting results.     

Accelerating ground warming in the Canadian Prairie provinces: Is it a result of global warming?

The results of precision temperature logs made to depths of several hundred meters in some 80 wells in Western Canada, most of which are located in the Prairie Provinces, show evidence of warming at the ground surface in the 0.5 K to 3.5 K range (average=2.2±0.7 K, for 80 unevenly distributed sites). Modeling shows that this warming mostly pertains to this century and it has been most substantal in the last four decades if the ramp function of the linear increase of surface temperature is assumed. Using the step function model's increase of surface temperature (land clearing, forest fires, etc.) the calculated onset of warming would pertain mostly to the last two decades. Contour maps of ground temperatures currently and previously and a contour map of the ground warming magnitude dilineate a large regional character of the ground temperature change at the southern marigin of permafrost for the large area of the Prairie Provinces. In many cases however, the magnitude of ground warming is much larger than the magnitude of air warming. This is especially evident for the northern areas of Alberta in the boreal forest ecoprovince. The magnitude of ground warming is equal to the magnitude of surface air warming in southern Alberta in the grassland and aspen parkland ecoprovinces. The analysis of the temperature depth response to the surface warming from well data shows the integrated effect of surface air warming together with the increases in ground temperature due to natural terrain effects and other anthropogenical changes to the surface of the earth.     

Does upward seepage of river water and storm water runoff determine water quality of urban drainage systems in lowland areas? A case study for the Rhine–Meuse delta

The water quality of urban drainage ditches in lowlands in the Rhine‐Meuse delta was analysed with principal component analysis (PCA) during a dry period and a rain storm, and related to the seepage of polluted river water and effective impervious area (EIA). This was done in order to test the hypothesis that seepage of river water and storm water runoff from impervious areas strongly determine the water quality of urban drainage systems along large lowland rivers. Our analysis revealed that upward seepage of groundwater originating from rivers Rhine and Meuse was positively correlated with nitrate, potassium, sodium and chloride and negatively correlated with alkalinity, calcium, magnesium and iron. EIA was correlated with very few environmental variables (i.e. phosphate, pH and iron in the dry period and iron during the rain storm). Nickel and zinc concentrations generally exceeded the maximum allowable concentrations (MAC), while lead and phosphorus concentrations were just above the nutrient standards and MAC in a few locations during the rain storm. To optimize water quality in urban water systems, attention should be paid to all sources of pollution and not only to EIA. The impact of local groundwater seepage originating from large rivers in lowlands on the chemistry of urban water systems is often underestimated and should be taken into account when assessing water quality and improving water quality status. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Continuous measurement of nitrate concentration in a highly event‐responsive agricultural catchment in south‐west of France: is the gain of information useful?

A nitrate sensor has been set up to measure every 10 min the nitrate signal in a stream draining a small agricultural catchment dominated by fertilized crops during a 2‐year study period (2006–2008) in the south‐west of France. An in situ sampling protocol using automatic sampler to monitor flood events have been used to assume a point‐to‐point calibration of the sensor values. The nitrate concentration exhibits nonsystematic concentration and dilution effects during flood events. We demonstrate that the calibrated nitrate sensor signal gathered from the outlet is considered to be a continuous signal using the Nyquist–Shannon sampling theorem. The objectives of this study are to quantify the errors generated by a typical infrequent sampling protocol and to design appropriate sampling strategy according to the sampling objectives. Nitrate concentration signal and flow data are numerically sampled to simulate common sampling frequencies. The total fluxes calculated from the simulated samples are compared with the reference value computed on the continuous signal. Uncertainties are increasing as sampling intervals increase; the method that is not using continuous discharge to compute nitrate fluxes bring larger uncertainty. The dispersion and bias computed for each sampling interval are used to evaluate the uncertainty during each hydrological period. High underestimation is made during flood periods when high‐concentration period is overlooked. On the contrary, high sampling frequencies (from 3 h to 1 day) lead to a systematic overestimation (bias around 3%): highest concentrations are overweighted by the interpolation of the concentration in such case. The in situ sampling protocol generates less than 1% of load estimation error and sample highest concentration peaks. We consider useful such newly emerging field technologies to assess short‐term variations of water quality parameters, to minimize the number of samples to be analysed and to assess the quality state of the stream at any time. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pathogenic fungi: an unacknowledged risk at coastal resorts? New insights on microbiological sand quality in Portugal

Whilst the potential impact on beach users from microorganisms in water has received considerable attention, there has been relatively little investigation into microbial contaminants in sand. Thirty three beaches across Portugal were analyzed during a five year period (2006-2010) to determine the presence of yeasts, pathogenic fungi, dermatophytes, total coliforms, Escherichia coli and intestinal enterococci in sand.Our results showed that 60.4% of the samples were positive for fungi and that 25.2% were positive for the bacterial parameters. The most frequent fungal species found were Candida sp. and Aspergillus sp., whereas intestinal enterococci were the most frequently isolated bacteria. Positive associations were detected among analyzed parameters and country-regions but none among those parameters and sampling period.Regarding threshold values, we propose 15 cfu/g for yeasts, 17 cfu/g for potential pathogenic fungi, 8 cfu/g for dermatophytes. Eighty four cfu/g for coliforms, 250 cfu/g for E. coli, and 100 cfu/g for intestinal enterococci.     

Comment on “Luminescence chronology of the Sankosh river terraces in the Assam–Buthan foothills of the Himalayas: Implications to climate and tectonics” by Quaternary Geochronology 72, 101364

In a study of which the main objective was to assess the impact of climate change and tectonics on the formation of river terraces along the Sankosh River, the eastern foreland of the Himalayas, the authors obtained geochrono-logical data using luminescence technique. Four strath river terraces (T4–T1) were distinguished within the valley bottom, and alluvial sediments from three terraces (T4, T2 and T1) were dated to the age range from 143 to 14 ka. The alluvial mantels of river terraces were then linked to the scheme of glacial-interglacial cycle. The paper, however, suffers from few inconsistent and missing information, and the assessment on the landscape evolution of the river valley is incomprehensive. The authors relied on feldspars and therefore the IRSL method was used, but “OSL ages” are discussed at the end. They state that (i) tectonics creates space for sediment accommodation and (ii) the luminescence ages flank deposition and incision phases. Despite the fact that the statements are questionable, the ways these happen are not elucidated within the paper. Due to the lack of geochronological data for T3 terrace, its formation is very enigmatic. It is even more mysterious in the light of the data for the other terraces, but the authors made no attempt to explain this riddle. However, that certain inability of reconstructing the history of T3 would shed a shadow on the robustness of the ages obtained.     

Dreissena polymorpha (Bivalvia: Dreissenidae) in the Neva Estuary (eastern Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea): is it a biofilter or source for pollution?

The zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha, a ponto-caspian byssate bivalve, forms permanent dense populations along the shoreline in the northern part of the inner Neva Estuary. Its total biomass along a 17 km transect reached 4980 tons (mean 1060 g m(-2)) in 2000 and 6510 tons (mean 1385 g m(-2)) in 2001. Being persistent and abundant, the zebra mussel populations played an important role in benthic-pelagic coupling in inner Neva River Estuary. The D. polymorpha population released up to 514 kg day(-1) of dissolved inorganic phosphorus and was, therefore, a major source of bioavailable nutrients in the area. Mussel beds were also efficient biofilters and precipitate 15,020 kg day(-1) of particulate organic matter during the warm season. About 50% of precipitated matter had a relatively long retention time, being utilized within zebra mussel populations, while the rest was deposited as faeces and pseudofaeces and served as a source for organic pollution to the eastern Gulf of Finland.     

The effect of burning and sheep grazing on soil water composition in a blanket bog: evidence for soil structural changes?

This study considers the impact of managed rotational burning of vegetation and sheep grazing upon the composition of soil waters within an upland peat soil. The study has considered soil water compositions from a complete factorial design of treatment plots where three different burning treatments were considered in replication with grazing and no grazing. All plots were sampled across a complete year with three dipwells in each plot. The study included aluminium (Al), iron, calcium, sodium (Na), magnesium (Mg), potassium, sulphate, chloride (Cl^?), bromide, fluoride, phosphate (PO )and nitrate; and in order to clarify the nature of the results, the pH, conductivity and dissolved organic carbon were also considered, but the major results for these are reported elsewhere. The study finds: (1) Ca, Na, Mg and PO concentrations are significantly lower on all burnt plots, with only Al concentration being significantly higher on burnt plots. (2) Only Cl^? showed any significant changes (a decrease) with the presence of sheep grazing, and then only when plots were also burnt. (3) A principal component analysis shows that the composition of most soil waters can be described by rainwater and soil water components, but in unburnt plots a base‐rich, high ionic strength water is sometimes present. The study suggests that burning, but not grazing, caused significant changes in soil water composition leading to increased interaction between incoming rainwaters and the peat soil but led to loss of interaction with deeper waters. However, no evidence was found for structural change in the soils even after long term (50 years) grazing and burning management. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sublethal effects of a chlorinated and heated effluent on the physiology of the mussel,Mytilus edulis L.: A reduction in fitness for survival?

Coastal power stations entrain large volumes of cooling water, requiring biocidal treatment to prevent biological fouling. Discharged effluent is both heated and contaminated with residual traces of biocide and so it is necessary to quantify the impacts of this discharge. Cooling water from Heysham 2 nuclear power station, NW England, UK, is discharged to the intertidal area, via a culvert (to minimise erosion and maximise dilution and dispersion by directing the effluent into the receiving water at all states of the tide) within which the effluent is contained at low water. The culvert and surrounding coastal area support a population of blue mussels (Mytilus edulis). Mussel health was determined along a gradient of exposure, using three physiological indices: Scope for Growth, Gonad Mantle Index and Somatic Condition Index (K Factor). The Mussels within the culvert exhibited reduced physiological index values compared to an external site. A trend was identified down the length of the culvert, representing a gradient of exposure and indicating a potential negative effect on growth and reproductive output.