The Evolution of the Sun's Open Magnetic Flux – II. Full Solar Cycle Simulations

In this paper the origin and evolution of the Sun's open magnetic flux is considered by conducting magnetic flux transport simulations over many solar cycles. The simulations include the effects of differential rotation, meridional flow and supergranular diffusion on the radial magnetic field at the surface of the Sun as new magnetic bipoles emerge and are transported poleward. In each cycle the emergence of roughly 2100 bipoles is considered. The net open flux produced by the surface distribution is calculated by constructing potential coronal fields with a source surface from the surface distribution at regular intervals. In the simulations the net open magnetic flux closely follows the total dipole component at the source surface and evolves independently from the surface flux. The behaviour of the open flux is highly dependent on meridional flow and many observed features are reproduced by the model. However, when meridional flow is present at observed values the maximum value of the open flux occurs at cycle minimum when the polar caps it helps produce are the strongest. This is inconsistent with observations by Lockwood, Stamper and Wild (1999) and Wang, Sheeley, and Lean (2000) who find the open flux peaking 1–2 years after cycle maximum. Only in unrealistic simulations where meridional flow is much smaller than diffusion does a maximum in open flux consistent with observations occur. It is therefore deduced that there is no realistic parameter range of the flux transport variables that can produce the correct magnitude variation in open flux under the present approximations. As a result the present standard model does not contain the correct physics to describe the evolution of the Sun's open magnetic flux over an entire solar cycle. Future possible improvements in modeling are suggested.     

Polar Coronal Structures and the Global Magnetic Field Evolution Through the Cycle

We compare the shape and position of some plasma formations visible in the polar corona with the cyclic evolution of the global magnetic field. The first type of object is polar crown prominences. A two-fold decrease of the height of polar crown prominences was found during their poleward migration from the middle latitudes to the poles before a polar magnetic field reversal. The effect could be assigned to a decrease of the magnetic field scale. The second type of object is the polar plumes, ray like structures that follow magnetic field lines. Tangents to polar ray structures are usually crossed near some point, “a magnetic focus,” below the surface. The distance q between the focus and the center of the solar disk changes from the maximum value about 0.65 R _⊙ at solar minimum activity to the minimum value about 0.45 R _⊙ at solar maximum. At first glance this behaviour seems to be contrary to the dynamics of spherical harmonics of the global magnetic field throughout a cycle. We believe that the problem could be resolved if one takes into account not only scale changes in the global magnetic field but also the phase difference in the cyclic variations of large-scale and small-scale components of the global field.     

Intermittency of the Solar Magnetic Field and Solar Magnetic Activity Cycle

Small-scale solar magnetic fields demonstrate features of fractal intermittent behavior, which requires quantification. For this purpose we investigate how the observational estimate of the solar magnetic flux density \(B\) depends on resolution \(D\) in order to obtain the scaling \(\ln B_{D} = - k \ln D +a\) in a reasonably wide range. The quantity \(k\) demonstrates cyclic variations typical of a solar activity cycle. In addition, \(k\) depends on the magnetic flux density, i.e. the ratio of the magnetic flux to the area over which the flux is calculated, at a given instant. The quantity \(a\) demonstrates some cyclic variation, but it is much weaker than in the case of \(k\). The scaling obtained generalizes previous scalings found for the particular cycle phases. The scaling is typical of fractal structures. In our opinion, the results obtained trace small-scale action in the solar convective zone and its coexistence with the conventional large-scale solar dynamo based on differential rotation and mirror-asymmetric convection.     

The Global Solar Magnetic Field Through a Full Sunspot Cycle: Observations and Model Results

Based on 11 years of SOHO/MDI observations from the cycle minimum in 1997 to the next minimum around 2008, we compare observed and modeled axial dipole moments to better understand the large-scale transport properties of magnetic flux in the solar photosphere. The absolute value of the axial dipole moment in 2008 is less than half that in the corresponding cycle-minimum phase in early 1997, both as measured from synoptic maps and as computed from an assimilation model based only on magnetogram data equatorward of 60° in latitude. This is incompatible with the statistical fluctuations expected from flux-dispersal modeling developed in earlier work at the level of 7 – 10 σ. We show how this decreased axial dipole moment can result from an increased strength of the diverging meridional flow near the Equator, which more effectively separates the two hemispheres for dispersing magnetic flux. Based on the combination of this work with earlier long-term simulations of the solar surface field, we conclude that the flux-transport properties across the solar surface have changed from preceding cycles to the most recent one. A plausible candidate for such a change is an increase of the gradient of the meridional-flow pattern near the Equator so that the two hemispheres are more effectively separated. The required profile as a function of latitude is consistent with helioseismic and cross-correlation measurements made over the past decade.     

Transport Effects in the Evolution of the Global Solar Magnetic Field

The axisymmetric component of the large-scale solar magnetic fields has a pronounced poleward branch at higher latitudes. In order to clarify the origin of this branch we construct an axisymmetric model of the passive transport of the mean poloidal magnetic field in the convective zone, including meridional circulation, anisotropic diffusivity, turbulent pumping and density pumping. For realistic values of the transport coefficients we find that diffusivity is prevalent, and the latitudinal distribution of the field at the surface simply reflects the conditions at the bottom of the convective zone. Pumping effects concentrate the field to the bottom of the convective zone; a significant part of this pumping occurs in a shallow subsurface layer, normally not resolved in dynamo models. The phase delay of the surface poloidal field relative to the bottom poloidal field is found to be small. These results support the double dynamo wave models, may be compatible with some form of a mixed transport scenario, and exclude the passive transport theory for the origin of the polar branch.     

The Relationship Between Kinematics and Spatial Structure of the Large-Scale Solar Magnetic Field

The rotation of large-scale solar magnetic fields has been investigated by analysing a 20-yr series of synoptic maps of the radial magnetic field. For this purpose, a specially adapted method of spectral analysis was used. We calculated rotation spectra of the magnetic field as functions of the rotation period, heliographic latitude, and longitudinal wave number, k. These spectra reveal the existence of a number of discrete, rigidly rotating components (modes) of the magnetic field, whose rotation periods lie in the wide range from 26.5 to 30.5 days. The significant spectral maxima lie in the (rotation period–latitude) plane close to the curve that represents the differential rotation of small-scale magnetic features. For the first harmonic of the magnetic field (k=1) the properties of the rotation spectra are consistent with those reported by Antonucci, Hoeksema, and Scherrer (1990). However, the distribution of the rigidly rotating modes over rotation period and their latitudinal structure change systematically with the harmonic number k. As k increases, the mean distance P in rotation period between the modes decreases, from 1.2 days for k=1 to 0.3–0.5 days for k=4. This decreasing period separation is accompanied by a decrease of the characteristic latitude separation between the mode maxima. The latitudinal and longitudinal discrete spatial scales of the non-axisymmetric magnetic field appear to be connected with each other, as well as with the temporal scale P.     

Helioseismology of Time-Varying Flows Through The Solar Cycle

Flows in the upper convection zone are measured by helioseismology on a wide variety of scales. These include differential rotation and meridional circulation, local flows around complexes of magnetic activity and sunspots, and convective flows. The temporal evolution of flows through cycle 23 reveals connections between mass motions in the solar interior and the large-scale characteristics of the magnetic cycle. Here I summarize the latest observations and their implications. Observations from local helioseismology suggest that subsurface flows around active regions introduce a solar-cycle variation in the meridional circulation.     

Modulation of the Solar Magnetic Cycle

The modulation model of the solar magnetic cycle for the time interval from 1650 to 1996 A.D. describes an harmonic oscillator with a basic (22.13 ± 0.05)-yr period, which is subjected to amplitude and phase variations that can be represented by a sum of trigonometric series. The simulated sunspot data explain 97.9% of cycle peak height variance and the residual standard deviation is 8.6 mean annual sunspots. A peak height of 139 for cycle 23 occurring in 2001 is predicted, whereas cycle 24 would have a maximum around 132 in 2014. Simulation of the sunspot numbers from 1000 until 2400 A.D. shows that the model recreates recurring minima (Maunder and Spörer Minimum). The prediction also expects a high level of amplitude modulation in the interval 1950–2010 with a rapid decrease afterwards. A greatly reduced cycle activity is reproduced by the simulation from about 2065 to 2100 A.D. No direct explanation of the long-term periodicities of the model can be advanced. The high-frequency contribution of the phase modulation, which accounts for the skewness of the solar cycle, shows coincidences with the orbital periods of Jupiter and Saturn, but no physical basis for the matching periodicities can be conceived.     

Toroidal Magnetic Field Generation in the Magnetosphere of Crab Pulsar

Plasma mechanism for the generation of toroidal magnetic field in the magnetosphere of Crab pulsar is presented. The mechanism is based on the development of parametric type instability in the relativistic electron-positron plasma of the pulsar magnetosphere. As a result of plasma corotation with pulsar and its magnetic field, the effect of plasma radial braking takes place and the time dependence of plasma particle radial velocity is harmonic. This triggers the development of parametric type instability in the relativistic plasma of the pulsar magnetosphere. The energy for this process is drawn from the slowing down of pulsar rotation.     

Correlation between Expansion Rate of the Coronal Magnetic Field and Solar Wind Speed in a Solar Activity Cycle

Thirteen synoptic maps of expansion rate of the coronal magnetic field (CMF; RBR) calculated by the so-called ‘potential model’ are constructed for 13 Carrington rotations from the maximum phase of solar activity cycle 22 through the maximum phase of cycle 23. Similar 13 synoptic maps of solar wind speed (SWS) estimated by interplanetary scintillation observations are constructed for the same 13 Carrington rotations as the ones for the RBR. The correlation diagrams between the RBR and the SWS are plotted with the data of these 13 synoptic maps. It is found that the correlation is negative and high in this time period. It is further found that the linear correlation is improved if the data are classified into two groups by the magnitude of radial component of photospheric magnetic field, |B^pho_r|; group 1, 0.0 G ≦ |B_r^pho| < 17.8 G and group 2, 17.8 G ≦ |B_r^pho|. There exists a strong negative correlation between the RBR and the SWS for the group 1 in contrast with a weak negative correlation for the group 2. Group 1 has a double peak in the density distribution of data points in the correlation diagram; a sharp peak for high-speed solar wind and a low peak for low-speed solar wind. These two peaks are located just on the axis of maximum variance of data points in the correlation diagram. This result suggests that the solar wind consists of two major components and both the high-speed and the low-speed winds emanating from weak photospheric magnetic regions are accelerated by the same mechanism in the course of solar activity cycle. It is also pointed out that the SWS can be estimated by the RBR of group 1 with an empirical formula obtained in this paper during the entire solar activity cycle.     

冕洞演化与太阳活动周的关系及在日地预报中的应用

冕洞的研究在近二十多年里取得了丰硕的成果。本文回顾了冕洞的发现及观测历史，系统阐述了冕洞的结构特征、形成及演化规律，讨论了冕洞对日地空间产生的影响，冕洞与超级活动区的关系以及冕洞在太阳活动预报中所起的作用，在此基础上利用１９７０—１９９５年的冕洞资料对冕洞的时空分布和磁极性演化规律与太阳活动周的关系，以及冕洞与太阳风速度、地磁扰动等方面进行分析研究，得出以下结论：（１）冕洞在南北半球的分布在形态上基本是对称的，但在冕洞数量上北半球稍占优势；（２）冕洞的盛衰演化呈周期性，表现为赤道冕洞周期与黑子周期是完全一致的，极冕洞周期与黑子周期相位相差１８０°；（３）赤道冕洞的纬度分布随太阳活动周上升而上升，当太阳活动周达到极大值时，它也达到极大，然后再随太阳活动周下降而下降，极冕洞的纬度延伸方向演化与赤道冕洞相反；（４）极冕洞的极场呈１１年周期性，并且极场反转出现在太阳活动峰年期间；（５）太阳风和地磁扰动与冕洞的演化有着密切的关系     

Relationship between Powerful Flares and Dynamic Evolution of the Magnetic Field at the Solar Surface

Powerful flares are closely related to the evolution of the complex magnetic field configuration at the solar surface. The strength of the magnetic field and speed of its evolution are two vital parameters in the study of the change of magnetic field in the solar atmosphere. We propose a dynamic and quantitative depiction of the changes in complexity of the active region: E=u×B, where u is the velocity of the footpoint motion of the magnetic field lines and B is the magnetic field. E represents the dynamic evolution of the velocity field and the magnetic field, shows the sweeping motions of magnetic footpoints, exhibits the buildup process of current, and relates to the changes in nonpotentiality of the active region in the photosphere. It is actually the induced electric field in the photosphere. It can be deduced observationally from velocities computed by the local correlation tracking (LCT) technique and vector magnetic fields derived from vector magnetograms. The relationship between E and ten X-class flares of four active regions (NOAA 10720, 10486, 9077, and 8100) has been studied. It is found that (1) the initial brightenings of flare kernels are roughly located near the inversion lines where the intensities of E are very high, (2) the daily averages of the mean densities of E and its normal component (E _n) decrease after flares for most cases we studied, whereas those of the tangential component of E (E _t) show no obvious regularities before and after flares, and (3) the daily averages of the mean densities of E _t are always higher than those of E _n, which cannot be naturally deduced by the daily averages of the mean densities of B _n and B _t.     

Using Polar Coronal Hole Area Measurements to Determine the Solar Polar Magnetic Field Reversal in Solar Cycle 24

An analysis of solar polar coronal hole (PCH) areas since the launch of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) shows how the polar regions have evolved during Solar Cycle 24. We present PCH areas from mid-2010 through 2013 using data from the Atmospheric Imager Assembly (AIA) and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instruments onboard SDO. Our analysis shows that both the northern and southern PCH areas have decreased significantly in size since 2010. Linear fits to the areas derived from the magnetic-field properties indicate that, although the northern hemisphere went through polar-field reversal and reached solar-maximum conditions in mid-2012, the southern hemisphere had not reached solar-maximum conditions in the polar regions by the end of 2013. Our results show that solar-maximum conditions in each hemisphere, as measured by the area of the polar coronal holes and polar magnetic field, will be offset in time.     

The Floor in the Solar Wind Magnetic Field Revisited

Svalgaard and Cliver (Astrophys. J. Lett. 661, L203, 2007) proposed that the solar-wind magnetic-field strength [B] at Earth has a ??floor?? value of ??4.6 nT in yearly averages, which is approached but not broached at solar minima. They attributed the floor to a constant baseline solar open flux. In both 2008 and 2009, the notion of such a floor was undercut by annual B averages of ??4 nT. Here we present a revised view of both the level and the concept of the floor. Two independent correlations indicate that B has a floor of ??2.8 nT in yearly averages. These are i) a relationship between solar polar-field strength and yearly averages of B for the last four 11-year minima (B _MIN), and ii) a precursor relationship between peak sunspot number for cycles 14??C?23 and B _MIN at their preceding minima. These correlations suggest that at 11-year minima, B consists of i) a floor of ??2.8 nT, and ii) a component primarily due to the solar polar fields that varies from ??0 nT to ??3 nT. The solar polar fields provide the ??seed?? for the subsequent sunspot maximum. Removing the ??2.8 nT floor from B _MIN brings the percentage decrease in B between the 1996 and 2009 minima into agreement with the corresponding decrease in solar polar-field strength. Based on a decomposition of the solar wind (from 1972??C?2009) into high-speed streams, coronal mass ejections, and slow solar wind, we suggest that the source of the floor in B is the slow solar wind. During 2009, Earth was in slow solar-wind flows ??70% of the time. We propose that the floor corresponds to a baseline (non-cyclic or ground state) open solar flux of ??8×10¹³ Wb, which originates in persistent small-scale (supergranular and granular) field.     

A Non-Linear Force-Free Field Model for the Evolving Magnetic Structure of Solar Filaments

In this paper the effect of a small magnetic element approaching the main body of a solar filament is considered through non-linear force-free field modeling. The filament is represented by a series of magnetic dips. Once the dips are calculated, a simple hydrostatic atmosphere model is applied to determine which structures have sufficient column mass depth to be visible in Hα. Two orientations of the bipole are considered, either parallel or anti-parallel to the overlying arcade. The magnetic polarity that lies closest to the filament is then advected towards the filament. Initially for both the dominant and minority polarity advected elements, right/left bearing barbs are produced for dextral/sinsitral filaments. The production of barbs due to dominant polarity elements is a new feature. In later stages the filament breaks into two dipped sections and takes a highly irregular, non-symmetrical form with multiple pillars. The two sections are connected by field lines with double dips even though the twist of the field is less than one turn. Reconnection is not found to play a key role in the break up of the filament. The non-linear force-free fields produce very different results to extrapolated linear-force free fields. For the cases considered here the linear force-free field does not produce the break up of the filament nor the production of barbs as a result of dominant polarity elements.     

Sector Structure, Rotation, and Cyclic Evolution of Large-Scale Solar Magnetic Fields

Auto-correlation analysis was performed using digitized synoptic charts of photospheric magnetic fields for the past three solar activity cycles (1965–1994). The obtained correlograms were used to study the rotation and the zonal-sector structure of large-scale solar magnetic fields all over the observable region of heliolatitudes in various phases of solar activity. It is shown that the large-scale system of solar magnetic fields is rather complex and comprises at least three different systems. One is a global rigidly rotating system. It determines the cyclic variation of magnetic fields and is probably responsible for the behavior of magnetic fields in the polar zones. Another is a rigidly rotating 4-sector structure in the central (equatorial and mid-latitude) zone. The third is a differentially rotating system that determines the behavior of the LSSMF structure elements with a size of 30–60° and less. This one is the most noticeable in the central zone and absent in the polar zones. Various cyclic and rotation parameters of the three field structures are discussed.     

Evolution of the Sun's magnetic polarities

The global magnetic-field resonances previously found in a modal analysis of a 25 yr Mt Wilson-Kitt Peak data set of synoptic magnetic maps are also revealed when only the magnetic polarities are used, disregarding the magnitude of the flux. Thus the topological organization of the magnetic polarities alone suffices to bring out the correct modal structure, although the results are noisier as compared with the case when the magnetic fluxes are included.This result suggests that magnetic polarities indirectly inferred from H data may be used to study the resonances. Whereas synoptic magnetograph observations are not available before 1959, H observations date back to the last century, and could in principle be used to enhance the frequency resolution in the power spectra.Using zonal distributions of magnetic polarities inferred from H data by Makarov for the period 1941–1983, we have performed a power spectrum analysis of the rotationally symmetric spherical harmonic modes (m = 0), and compared the results with the corresponding analysis for the magnetic fields and polarities determined from real magnetograph data. The same parity selection rule that governs the 22 yr magnetic cycle in the magnetograph data is also revealed by the H data. The H results are however much noisier and do not show the pattern of resonant frequencies discovered in the magnetograph data for the modes of even parity. It is concluded that only real magnetograph data should be used to investigate the global resonances in the magnetic-field pattern.     

The Magnetic Field of the Solar Corona from Pulsar Observations

We present a novel experiment with the capacity to independently measure both the electron density and the magnetic field of the solar corona. We achieve this through measurement of the excess Faraday rotation resulting from propagation of the polarised emission from a number of pulsars through the magnetic field of the solar corona. This method yields independent measures of the integrated electron density, via dispersion of the pulsed signal and the magnetic field, via the amount of Faraday rotation. In principle this allows the determination of the integrated magnetic field through the solar corona along many lines of sight without any assumptions regarding the electron density distribution. We present a detection of an increase in the rotation measure of the pulsar J1801-2304 of approximately 170 rad m² at an elongation of 0.96° from the centre of the solar disc. This corresponds to a lower limit of the magnetic field strength along this line of sight of >41.8 nT. The lack of precision in the integrated electron density measurement restricts this result to a limit, but application of coronal plasma models can further constrain this to approximately 0.5 μT, along a path passing 2.7 solar radii from the solar limb, which is consistent with predictions obtained using extensions to the source surface models published by the Wilcox Solar Observatory.     

Magnetic Helicity as a Predictor of the Solar Cycle

It is well known that the polar magnetic field is at its maximum during solar minima, and that the behaviour during this time acts as a strong predictor of the strength of the following solar cycle. This relationship relies on the action of differential rotation (the Omega effect) on the poloidal field, which generates the toroidal flux observed in sunspots and active regions. We measure the helicity flux into both the northern and the southern hemispheres using a model that takes account of the Omega effect, which we apply to data sets covering a total of 60 years. We find that the helicity flux offers a strong prediction of solar activity up to five years in advance of the next solar cycle. We also hazard an early guess as to the strength of Solar Cycle 25, which we believe will be of similar amplitude and strength to Cycle 24.     

3D Coronal Density Reconstruction and Retrieving the Magnetic Field Structure during Solar Minimum

Measurement of the coronal magnetic field is a crucial ingredient in understanding the nature of solar coronal phenomena at all scales. We employed STEREO/COR1 data obtained during a deep minimum of solar activity in February 2008 (Carrington Rotation CR 2066) to retrieve and analyze the three-dimensional (3D) coronal electron density in the range of heights from 1.5 to 4 R_⊙ using a tomography method. With this, we qualitatively deduced structures of the coronal magnetic field. The 3D electron-density analysis is complemented by the 3D STEREO/EUVI emissivity in the 195 Å band obtained by tomography for the same CR. A global 3D MHD model of the solar corona was used to relate the reconstructed 3D density and emissivity to open/closed magnetic-field structures. We show that the density-maximum locations can serve as an indicator of current-sheet position, while the locations of the density-gradient maximum can be a reliable indicator of coronal-hole boundaries. We find that the magnetic-field configuration during CR 2066 has a tendency to become radially open at heliocentric distances greater than 2.5 R_⊙. We also find that the potential-field model with a fixed source surface is inconsistent with the boundaries between the regions with open and closed magnetic-field structures. This indicates that the assumption of the potential nature of the coronal global magnetic field is not satisfied even during the deep solar minimum. Results of our 3D density reconstruction will help to constrain solar coronal-field models and test the accuracy of the magnetic-field approximations for coronal modeling.