Precipitation in the Anatolian Peninsula: sensitivity to increased SSTs in the surrounding seas

Effects of the increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding seas of the Anatolian Peninsula on the precipitation it receives are investigated through sensitivity simulations using a state-of-the-art regional climate model, RegCM3. The sensitivity simulations involve 2-K increases to the SSTs of the Aegean, eastern Mediterranean and Black seas individually as well as collectively. All the simulations are integrated over a 10-year period between 1990 and 2000. The model simulations of this study indicate that the precipitation of the peninsula is sensitive to the variations of the SSTs of the surrounding seas. In general, increased SSTs lead to increases in the precipitation of the peninsula as well as that of the seas considered. The statistically significant increases at 95% confidence levels largely occur along the coastal areas of the peninsula that are in the downwind side of the seas. Significant increases do also take place in the interior areas of the peninsula, especially in the eastern Anatolia in winter. The simulations reveal that eastern Mediterranean Sea has the biggest potential to affect the precipitation in the peninsula. They also demonstrate that taking all three seas into account simultaneously enhances the effect of SSTs on the peninsula’s precipitation, and extends the areas with statistically significant increases.     

U.S. Climate Sensitivity Simulated with the NCEP Regional Spectral Model

10-year continuous U.S. climate simulations were conducted with the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) using boundary conditions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Dept. of Energy reanalyses and the global PCM (Parallel Climate Model) simulations for present day (1986–1996) andfuture (2040–2050) CO₂ concentrations (about a 36% increasedCO₂). In order to examine the influence of physical parameterization differences as well as grid-resolution, fine resolution RSM simulations (50 km) were compared to coarse resolution (180 and 250 km) RSM simulations, which had resolutions comparable to the T62 reanalysis and PCM simulations. During the winter, the fine resolution RSM simulations provided more realistic detail over the western mountains. During the summer, large differences between the RSM and driving PCM simulations were found. Our results with presentCO₂ suggest that most of the differences between the regionalclimate model simulations and the climate simulations driven by the global model used to drive the regional climate model were not due to the finer resolution of the regional climate model but to the different treatment of the physical processes in the two models, especially when the subgrid scale physics was important, like during summer. Compared to the coarse resolution RSM simulation results, on the other hand, the fine resolution RSM simulations did show improved simulation skills especially when a good boundary condition such as the reanalysis was used to drive the RSM. Under increased CO₂, the driving PCM and downscaled RSM simulations exhibitedwarming over all vertical layers and all regions. Both the RSM and PCM had increased precipitation during the winter, but during the summer, the PCM simulation had an overall precipitation increase mainly due to increased subgrid scale convective activity, whereas the RSM simulations exhibited precipitation decreases and the resulting RSM soil moisture became dryer, especially in the U.S. Southwest. Most of differences in the simulated climate change signals were produced by the distinct model physics rather than by differences in grid resolution.     

The role of the convective “trigger function” in numerical forecasts of mesoscale convective systems

Summary Three-dimensional numerical model simulations of a mesoscale convective system are performed to evaluate the sensitivity of the simulations to differences in the convective trigger function. The Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model with the Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization scheme is used as the modeling system for the study. All simulations are performed on the June 10–11, 1985 squall line from the OK PRE-STORM field experiment. Individual simulations differ only in their specification of the trigger function within the Kain-Fritsch scheme. Comparison of results from 12 hour simulations indicates that the position, timing, and intensity of convective activity and mesoscale features vary substantially as a function of the trigger function formulation. The results suggest that the convective trigger function is an integral part of the overall convective parameterization problem, and that great care must be exercised is designing realistic trigger function formulations, especially as model resolutions approach the scale of individual convective clouds.With 7 Figures     

Comparison of the Influence of Interannual Vegetation Variability between Offline and Online Simulations

This study investigates the influence of interannual vegetation variability. Two sets of offline and online simulations were performed using the Community Earth System Model. The interannual Global LAnd Surface Satellite （GLASS） leaf area index （LAI） dataset from 1985 to 2000 and its associated climatological LAI were used to replace the default climatological LAI data in version 4 of the Community Land Model （CLM4）. The re- sults showed that on a global scale, canopy transpiration and evaporation, as well as total evapotranspiration in offline simulations were significantly positively corre- lated with LAI, whereas ground evaporation and ground temperature showed significant negative correlation with LAI. However, the correlations in online simulations were reduced markedly because of interactive feedbacks between albedo, changed climatic factors and atmospheric variability. In the offline simulations, the fluctuations of differences in interannual variability of evapotranspiration and ground temperature focused on vegetation growing regions and the magnitudes were smaller. Those in online simulations spread over more regions and the magnitudes were larger. These results highlight the influence of interannual vegetation variability, particularly in online simulations, an effect that deserves consideration and attention when investigating the uncertainty of climate change.     

通用线性模型在气象水文集合预报后处理中的应用

通用线性模型是一个气象水文预报后处理的统计模型。它能消除水文模型流量模拟中的偏差,保留了原始预报的技巧,并且能产生可靠的水文集合预报。本文试验中利用通用线性模型对取自于国际模型参数估计试验数据库的日流量模拟数据进行校正,并与实况观测作比较,检验通用线性模型降低误差的性能。结果表明:通用线性模型产生的流量集合预报的连续分级概率评分分值都在0.5分以下,证明集合预报结果是可靠的;校正后的模拟值在平均值、标准差、均方根误差等检验指标方面都比原始模拟更加接近于实际观测值;即使是对于误差较小的水文模拟,通用线性模型仍有对其进行改善的能力。     

Validation of the Polar MM5 for use in the simulation of the Arctic river basins

The simulations were performed using a modified mesoscale model,the Polar MM5,which was adapted for use within polar regions.The objective of the study was to illustrate the skill of the Polar MM5 in simulating atmospheric behavior over the Arctic river basins.Automatic weather station data,global atmospheric analyses,as well as near-surface and upper-air observations were used to verify the simulation. Parallel simulations of the Polar MM5 and the original MM5 within the period 19-29 April 1997 simula- tions revealed that Polar MM5 reproduced better near-surface variables forecasts than the original MM5 for the region located over the North American Arctic regions.The well predicted near-surface temperature and mixing ratio by the Polar MM5 confirmed the modified physical parameterization schemes that were used in this model are appropriate for the Arctic river regions.Then the extended evaluations of the Polar MM5 simulations over both the North American and Eurasian domains during 15 December 2002 to 15 May 2003 were then carried out.The time series plots and statistical analyses from the observations and the Polar MM5 simulations at 16 stations for the near-surface and vertical profiles at 850 hPa and 500 hPa variables were analyzed.The model was found to reproduce the observed atmospheric state both at magnitude and variability with a high degree of accuracy,especially for temperature and near-surface winds,although there was a slight cold bias that existed near the surface.     

Differences in the variability of measured and simulated tropospheric ozone mixing ratios over the Paso del Norte Region

The objective of this study is to present differences in the variability of observed and ozone-mixing ratios simulated by a three-dimensional atmospheric chemical model using two chemical mechanisms. In this study the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions is used to make ozone simulations with the Carbon Bond mechanism, versions 4 and 5. The Paso del Norte region is used as a test-bed for these simulations. The shared variance between the simulations and measurements is typical for air quality models ranging from 0.51 to 0.86 for both mechanisms. The smallest mean normalized gross error is about 31 % with CB4 but the normalized bias is over 30 % as well. Boundary conditions, emissions and other factors affect the levels of ozone of the simulated mixing ratios and therefore error and bias but these factors have a much less affect on the simulated ozone variability. The differences in the ozone variability of the measurements and the simulations are very large and different for the two chemical mechanisms. There are many more instances of low ozone mixing ratios in the measurements than in the simulated ozone. One possible explanation is that these differences are due to problems associated with comparing point measurements with grid averages. A more disturbing possibility is that the bias could be due to the procedures used in the development and testing of air quality modeling systems. Air quality mechanisms are evaluated against environmental chamber data where the chemistry occurs at high concentrations and this may lead to a systematic positive bias in ozone simulations.     

The Impact of Radiation on the GABLS3 Large-Eddy Simulation through the Night and during the Morning Transition

Large-eddy simulation in the GABLS3 intercomparison is concerned with the developed stable boundary layer (SBL) and the ensuing morning transition. The impact of radiative transfer on simulations of this case is assessed. By the time of the reversal of the surface buoyancy flux, a modest reduction of the lapse rate in the developed SBL is apparent in simulations that include longwave radiation. Subsequently, with radiation, the developing mixed layer grows significantly more quickly, so that four hours after the transition the mixed layer is roughly 40 % deeper; the resulting profiles of potential temperature and specific humidity are in better agreement with observations. The inclusion of radiation does not substantively alter the shape of turbulent spectra, but it does indirectly reduce the variance of temperature fluctuations in the mixed layer. The deepening of the mixed layer is interpreted as a response to the reduction of the strength of the capping inversion, resulting from cumulative radiative cooling in the residual layer and around the top of the former SBL. Sensitivity studies are performed to separate the two effects. Solar radiative heating of the atmosphere has a smaller impact on the development of the mixed layer than does longwave radiative cooling and slightly reduces its rate of growth, compared to simulations including longwave radiation alone. These simulations demonstrate that nocturnal radiative processes have an important effect on the morning transition and that they should be considered in future large-eddy simulations of the transition.     

Dynamical Downscaling of the Arctic Climate with a Focus on Polar Cyclone Climatology

We present a dynamical downscaling of the Arctic climatology using a high-resolution implementation of the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting, version 3.6 (WRF3.6) model, with a focus on Arctic cyclone activity. The study period is 1979–2004 and the driving fields are data from the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, with an Earth System component (HadGEM2-ES) simulations. We show that the results from the Polar WRF model provide significantly improved simulations of the frequency, intensity, and size of cyclones compared with the HadGEM2-ES simulations. Polar WRF reproduces the intensity of winter cyclones found in ERA-Interim, the global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and suggests that the average minimum central pressure of the cyclones is about 10?hPa lower than that derived from HadGEM2-ES simulations. Although both models underestimate the frequency of summer Arctic cyclones, Polar WRF simulations suggest there are 10.5% more cyclones per month than do HadGEM2-ES results. Overall, the Polar WRF model captures more intense and smaller cyclones than are obtained in HadGEM2-ES results, in better agreement with the ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Our results also show that the improved simulations of Arctic synoptic weather systems contribute to better simulations of atmospheric surface fields. The Polar WRF model is better able to simulate both the spatial patterns and magnitudes of the ERA-Interim reanalysis data than HadGEM2-ES is; in particular, the latter overestimates the absorbed solar radiation in the Arctic basin by as much as 30?W?m^?2 and underestimates longwave radiation by about 10?W?m^?2 in summer. Our results suggest that the improved simulations of longwave and solar radiation are partly associated with a better simulation of cloud liquid water content in the Polar WRF model, which is linked to improvements in the simulation of cyclone frequency and intensity and the resulting transient eddy transports of heat and water vapour.     

Different flavors of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

We investigate how differently-constructed indices for North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (NASSTs) describe the “Atlantic Multidecadal Variability” (AMV) in a suite of unperturbed as well as externally-forced millennial (pre-industrial period) climate simulations. The simulations stem from an ensemble of Earth system models differing in both resolution and complexity. Different criteria exist to construct AMV indices capturing different aspects of the phenomenon. Although all representations of the AMV maintain strong multidecadal variability, they depict different characteristics of simulated low-frequency NASST variability, evolve differently in time and relate to different hemispheric teleconnections. Due to such multifaceted signatures in the ocean-surface as well as in the atmosphere, reconstructions of past AMV may not univocally reproduce multidecadal NASST variability. AMV features under simulated externally-forced pre-industrial climate conditions are not unambiguously distinguishable, within a linear framework, from AMV features in corresponding unperturbed simulations. This prevents a robust diagnosis of the simulated pre-industrial AMV as a predominantly internal rather than externally-forced phenomenon. We conclude that a multi-perspective assessment of multidecadal NASSTs variability is necessary for understanding the origin of the AMV, its physics and its climatic implications.     

A correspondence between the model ensemble simulations and observations of temperature changes on the territory of Russia

The results are presented of the statistical analysis of correspondence between the model simulations and observations of temperature changes on the territory of Russia. Three model ensembles are considered, differing in the level of taking account of the impact of external forcings on the climate system of the Earth. For each of them, the statistical correspondence is estimated between the observed surface air temperature variations in the second half of the 20th century and at the beginning of the 21st century and model simulations taking account of the natural variability typical of the climate system. The analysis demonstrated that, in spite of the uncertainties associated with the differences in the representation of anthropogenic and natural external forcings on the climate in model simulations as well as with the imperfection of climate models and with internal variability of the climate system, the model experiments enable to obtain the relevant information both on the temporal evolution of temperature changes on the territory of Russia and on their spatial peculiarities.     

On the anomalous precipitation enhancement over the Himalayan foothills during monsoon breaks

An intriguing feature associated with ‘breaks’ in the Indian summer monsoon is the occurrence of intense/flood-producing precipitation confined to central-eastern parts of the Himalayan (CEH) foothills and north-eastern parts of India. Past studies have documented various large-scale circulation aspects associated with monsoon-breaks, however the dynamical mechanisms responsible for anomalous precipitation enhancement over CEH foothills remain unclear. This problem is investigated using diagnostic analyses of observed and reanalysis products and high-resolution model simulations. The present findings show that the anomalous precipitation enhancement over the CEH foothills during monsoon-breaks emerges as a consequence of interactions between southward intruding mid-latitude westerly troughs and the South Asian monsoon circulation in its weak phase. These interactions facilitate intensification of mid-tropospheric cyclonic vorticity and strong ascending motion over the CEH foothills, so as to promote deep convection and concentrated rainfall activity over the region during monsoon-breaks. Mesoscale orographic effects additionally tend to amplify the vertical motions and precipitation over the CEH foothills as evidenced from the high-resolution model simulations. It is further noted from the model simulations that the coupling between precipitation and circulation during monsoon-breaks can produce nearly a threefold increase of total precipitation over the CEH foothills and neighborhood as opposed to active-monsoon conditions.     

A note on the role of meridional wind stress anomalies and heat flux in ENSO simulations

Four comparative experiments and some supplementary experiments were conducted to examine the role of meridional wind stress anomalies and heat flux variability in ENSO simulations by using a high-resolution Ocean General Circulation Model （OGCM）. The results indicate that changes in the direction and magnitude of meridional wind stress anomalies have little influence on ENSO simulations until meridional wind stress anomalies are unrealistically enlarged by a factor of 5.0. However, evidence of an impact on ENSO simulations due to heat flux variability was found. The simulated Nino-3 index without the effect of heat flux anomalies tended to be around 1.0° lower than the observed, as well as the control run, during the peak months of ENSO events.     

The impact of lateral boundary data errors on the simulated climate of a nested regional climate model

In this study, we investigate the response of a Regional Climate Model (RCM) to errors in the atmospheric data used as lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) using a perfect-model framework nick-named the “Big-Brother Experiment” (BBE). The BBE has been designed to evaluate the errors due to the nesting process excluding other model errors. First, a high-resolution (45 km) RCM simulation is made over a large domain. This simulation, called the Perfect Big Brother (PBB), is driven by the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses; it serves as reference virtual-reality climate to which other RCM runs will be compared. Next, errors of adjustable magnitude are introduced by performing RCM simulations with increasingly larger domains at lower horizontal resolution (90 km mesh). Such simulations with errors typical of today’s Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCM) are called the Imperfect Big-Brother (IBB) simulations. After removing small scales in order to achieve low-resolution typical of today’s CGCMs, they are used as LBCs for driving smaller domain high-resolution RCM runs; these small-domain high-resolution simulations are called Little-Brother (LB) simulations. The difference between the climate statistics of the IBB and those of PBB simulations mimic errors of the driving model. The comparison of climate statistics of the LB to those of the PBB provides an estimate of the errors resulting solely from nesting with imperfect LBCs. The simulations are performed over the East Coast of North America using the Canadian RCM, for five consecutive February months (from 1990 to 1994). It is found that the errors contained in the large scales of the IBB driving data are transmitted to and reproduced with little changes by the LB. In general, the LB restores a great part of the IBB small-scale errors, even if they do not take part in the nesting process. The small scales are seen to improve slightly in regions with important orographic forcing due to the finer resolution of the RCM. However, when the large scales of the driving model have errors, the small scales developed by the LB have errors as well, suggesting that the large scales precondition the small scales. In order to obtain correct small scales, it is necessary to provide the accurate large-scale circulation at the lateral boundary of the RCM.     

Simulated changes in the relationship between tropical ocean temperatures and the western African monsoon during the mid-Holocene

Results from nine coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations have been used to investigate changes in the relationship between the variability of monsoon precipitation over western Africa and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) between the mid-Holocene and the present day. Although the influence of tropical SSTs on the African monsoon is generally overestimated in the control simulations, the models reproduce aspects of the observed modes of variability. Thus, most models reproduce the observed negative correlation between western Sahelian precipitation and SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific, and many of them capture the positive correlation between SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Atlantic and precipitation over the Guinea coastal region. Although the response of individual model to the change in orbital forcing between 6 ka and present differs somewhat, eight of the models show that the strength of the teleconnection between SSTs in the eastern tropical Pacific and Sahelian precipitation is weaker in the mid-Holocene. Some of the models imply that this weakening was associated with a shift towards longer time periods (from 3–5 years in the control simulations toward 4–10 years in the mid-Holocene simulations). The simulated reduction in the teleconnection between eastern tropical Pacific SSTs and Sahelian precipitation appears to be primarily related to a reduction in the atmospheric circulation bridge between the Pacific and West Africa but, depending on the model, other mechanisms such as increased importance of other modes of tropical ocean variability or increased local recycling of monsoonal precipitation can also play a role.     

Introduction of a sub-grid hydrology in the ISBA land surface model

In atmospheric models, the partitioning of precipitation between infiltration and runoff has a major influence on the terrestrial water budget, and thereby on the simulated weather or climate. River routing models are now available to convert the simulated runoff into river discharge, offering a good opportunity to validate land surface models at the regional scale. However, given the low resolution of global atmospheric models, the quality of the hydrological simulations is much dependent on various processes occurring on unresolved spatial scales. This paper focuses on the parameterization of sub-grid hydrological processes within the ISBA land surface model. Five off-line simulations are performed over the French Rhône river basin, including various sets of parameterizations related to the sub-grid variability of topography, precipitation, maximum infiltration capacity and land surface properties. Parallel experiments are conducted at a high (8 km by 8 km) and low (1° by 1°) resolution, in order to test the robustness of the simulated water budget. Additional simulations are performed using the whole package of sub-grid parameterizations plus an exponential profile with depth of saturated hydraulic conductivity, in order to investigate the interaction between the vertical soil physics and the horizontal heterogeneities. All simulations are validated against a dense network of gauging measurements, after the simulated runoff is converted into discharge using the MODCOU river routing model. Generally speaking, the new version of ISBA, with both the sub-grid hydrology and the modified hydraulic conductivity, shows a better simulation of river discharge, as well as a weaker sensitivity to model resolution. The positive impact of each individual sub-grid parameterization on the simulated discharges is more obvious at the low resolution, whereas the high-resolution simulations are more sensitive to the exponential profile with depth of saturated hydraulic conductivity.     

A Budget Analysis of the Variances of Temperature and Moisture in Precipitating Shallow Cumulus Convection

Large-eddy simulations of an evolving cloud field are used to investigate the contribution of microphysical processes to the evolution of the variance of total water and liquid water potential temperature in the boundary layer. While the first hours of such simulations show a transient behaviour and have to be analyzed with caution, the final portion of the simulation provides a quasi-equilibrium situation. This allows investigation of the budgets of the variances of total water and liquid water potential temperature and quantification of the contribution of several source and sink terms. Accretion is found to act as a strong sink for the variances, while the contributions from the processes of evaporation and autoconversion are small. A simple parametrization for the sink term connected to accretion is suggested and tested with a different set of simulations.     

Temperature and precipitation projections for the Antarctic Peninsula over the next two decades: contrasting global and regional climate model simulations

This study presents near future (2020–2044) temperature and precipitation changes over the Antarctic Peninsula under the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). We make use of historical and projected simulations from 19 global climate models (GCMs) participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We compare and contrast GCMs projections with two groups of regional climate model simulations (RCMs): (1) high resolution (15-km) simulations performed with Polar-WRF model forced with bias-corrected NCAR-CESM1 (NC-CORR) over the Antarctic Peninsula, (2) medium resolution (50-km) simulations of KNMI-RACMO21P forced with EC-EARTH (EC) obtained from the CORDEX-Antarctica. A further comparison of historical simulations (1981–2005) with respect to ERA5 reanalysis is also included for circulation patterns and near-surface temperature climatology. In general, both RCM boundary conditions represent well the main circulation patterns of the historical period. Nonetheless, there are important differences in projections such as a notable deepening and weakening of the Amundsen Sea Low in EC and NC-CORR, respectively. Mean annual near-surface temperatures are projected to increase by about 0.5–1.5 \(^{\circ }\)C across the entire peninsula. Temperature increase is more substantial in autumn and winter (\(\sim \) 2 \(^{\circ }\)C). Following opposite circulation pattern changes, both EC and NC-CORR exhibit different warming rates, indicating a possible continuation of natural decadal variability. Although generally showing similar temperature changes, RCM projections show less warming and a smaller increase in melt days in the Larsen Ice Shelf compared to their respective driving fields. Regarding precipitation, there is a broad agreement among the simulations, indicating an increase in mean annual precipitation (\(\sim \) 5 to 10%). However, RCMs show some notable differences over the Larsen Ice Shelf where total precipitation decreases (for RACMO) and shows a small increase in rain frequency. We conclude that it seems still difficult to get consistent projections from GCMs for the Antarctic Peninsula as depicted in both RCM boundary conditions. In addition, dominant and common changes from the boundary conditions are largely evident in the RCM simulations. We argue that added value of RCM projections is driven by processes shaped by finer local details and different physics schemes that are introduced by RCMs, particularly over the Larsen Ice Shelf.

     

Variation of the Sectional Drag Coefficient of a Group of Buildings with Packing Density

Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) simulations of turbulent flow over groups of buildings with different packing densities are reported. The results for a selected packing density are compared with direct numerical simulations (DNS) previously validated against wind-tunnel data. The present study is focused on average properties of the flow, especially on the drag coefficients, and is a first attempt to provide information on these parameters (their values are not generally known) for a range of packing densities, for a given staggered arrangement of cubes using RANS methods. However, some of the limitations of RANS have come to light. Hence, it is recommended that such simulations are ‘calibrated’ against experimental or DNS data, as is done here.     

The role of boundary organizations in climate change adaptation from the perspective of municipal practitioners

In climate change impact research it is crucial to carefully select the meteorological input for impact models. We present a method for model selection that enables the user to shrink the ensemble to a few representative members, conserving the model spread and accounting for model similarity. This is done in three steps: First, using principal component analysis for a multitude of meteorological parameters, to find common patterns of climate change within the multi-model ensemble. Second, detecting model similarities with regard to these multivariate patterns using cluster analysis. And third, sampling models from each cluster, to generate a subset of representative simulations. We present an application based on the ENSEMBLES regional multi-model ensemble with the aim to provide input for a variety of climate impact studies. We find that the two most dominant patterns of climate change relate to temperature and humidity patterns. The ensemble can be reduced from 25 to 5 simulations while still maintaining its essential characteristics. Having such a representative subset of simulations reduces computational costs for climate impact modeling and enhances the quality of the ensemble at the same time, as it prevents double-counting of dependent simulations that would lead to biased statistics.