Westward intensification in marginal seas

An idealized model was used to examine why the strong western boundary current (WBC) is observed in the South China Sea (SCS) but not in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and Japan/East Sea (JES). Results suggested that the stronger WBC in the SCS is mainly attributed to the direct contribution of the inflow and the strong monsoon. Although the Gulf Stream transports a large amount of water into the GOM, the passage in the southeast corner guides the inflow out of the gulf and inhibits the inflow from intensifying the WBC. Meanwhile, the wind stress in the GOM is weakest among the three marginal seas. The meridional ocean ridge and the particular layout of the continental slope of JES prevent the whole basin from participating in the westward intensification. Besides, the throughflow has adverse effects on the formulation of WBC in JES. The variation of Coriolis parameter with latitude leads to the westward intensification in marginal seas. However, a strong WBC cannot be observed in the absence of reasonable collocation of wind, inflow, and topography.     

Modeling the circulation in the Gulf of Tonkin, South China Sea

The circulation in the Gulf of Tonkin (Beibu Gulf) was studied using the Princeton Ocean Model, which was forced with the daily surface and lateral boundary fluxes for 2006 and 2007, as well as tidal harmonics and monthly climatological river discharges. In the southern Gulf, the vertically averaged circulation was anti-cyclonic in summer and changed to cyclonic in winter. Although it was highly correlated with the local wind, the southern gyre was driven primarily by the South China Sea (SCS) general circulation from the south. Flows in the Qiongzhou Strait that played a significant role in determining the circulation variability in the northeastern Gulf could be eastward or westward at any given day in summer or winter, but the seasonal mean current was eastward from late spring through summer and westward during the rest of the year, with an annual mean westward transport of ～0.1 Sv into the Gulf. Different water masses were distinguished at the surface with the warm and saline SCS water in the south, relatively fresh plume waters along the northern and western coasts of the Gulf, and the mixture of the two in between. At lower levels, two cold water masses were identified in the model, and each had T/S distributions qualitatively similar to the observations obtained in 2007. These two water masses were produced throughout the winter, sheltered from the surface warming by a thermocline as the season progressed, and eventually disappeared in late fall.     

An anomalous cooling event observed in the Bay of Bengal during June 2009

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) has the potential to trigger deep moist convection thereby affecting the active-break cycle of the monsoons. Normally, during the summer monsoon season, SST over the BoB is observed to be greater than 28°C which is a pre-requisite for convection. During June 2009, satellite observations revealed an anomalous basin-wide cooling and the month is noted for reduced rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. In this study, we analyze the likely mechanisms of this cooling event using both satellite and moored buoy observations. Observations showed deepened mixed layer, stronger surface currents, and enhanced heat loss at the surface in the BoB. Mixed layer heat balance analysis is carried out to resolve the relative importance of various processes involved. We show that the cooling event is primarily induced by the heat losses at the surface resulting from the strong wind anomalies, and advection and vertical entrainment playing secondary roles.     

2002年南海季风爆发前后西沙海区海-气通量交换及其变化

利用2002年4月24日至6月20日在西沙海区进行的第三次南海海-气通量观测试验资料,采用涡相关法和TOGA COARE25b版本通量计算方案,计算了西南季风爆发前后海洋-大气间的通量交换,讨论了辐射、动量、感热通量、潜热通量、海洋热量净收支的时间变化特征及其与气象要素变化的关系.结果表明：西南季风爆发前后,太阳短波辐射、海面净辐射、潜热通量和海洋热量净收支变化特别强烈;通量变化受不同环境要素的影响：感热通量与海-气温差呈正相关关系,与气温呈明显的负相关关系.潜热通量与风速、海-气温差及海面水温均有正相关关系,其中与风速的关系最密切.动量通量（τ）主要随风速变化,它与风速（V）的关系可以表示为τ=000185V2-000559V+001248.     

Zonal propagation of kinetic energy and convection in the South China Sea and Indian monsoon regions in boreal summer

As early as in the 1980s, Chinese scientists hadfirst proposed that there exits two summer monsoonsystems in Asia, namely the East Asian summer mon-soon (EASM) and the Indian summer monsoon(ISM)[1-4]. The two monsoon systems are quite dif-ferent in characteristics. Since then, such issue andconclusion had been documented and approved by alot of studies in the past two decades, and was appliedin the guideline of the South China Sea summer mon-soon experiment (SCSMEX), which was undertak…     

半个世纪来热带海洋风暴对中国大陆的影响

本文利用美国海军台风警报中心（JTWC）提供的1945～2002年热带风暴路径资料统计分析了西北太平洋（NWP）和中国南海（SCS）风暴生成及登陆中国大陆热带风暴的时空演变特征.季节变化上，NWP风暴登陆主要集中于6～11月，SCS风暴影响主要集中在6～9月，但后者登陆总数比前者少.西北太平洋风暴在东南沿海(27°N，120°E)附近登陆的频次最高，在此以北随纬度急剧下降.年际变化时间尺度上，登陆大陆的风暴年总数与来自南海的年风暴数成正比.登陆我国的热带风暴年频数有明显的区域差异和显著的2～7年振荡.长期趋势上，两个海域的风暴年生成频数和登陆大陆的年风暴频数在58年中总体呈线性增长趋势，其中登陆频数增长趋势相对缓慢，但近几年登陆风暴数与生成风暴数都表现出减少的趋势.生成频数和登陆频数都呈现出年代际变化，其年代转换发生在1960、1970年和1990年前后.     

Identification of extreme storm surges with high-impact potential along the German North Sea coastline

Planning and design of coastal protection rely on information about the probabilities of very severe storm tides and the possible changes that may occur in the course of climate change. So far, this information is mostly provided in the form of high percentiles obtained from frequency distributions or return values. More detailed information and assessments of events that may cause extreme damages or have extreme consequences at the coast are so far still unavailable. We describe and compare two different approaches that may be used to identify highly unlikely but still physically possible and plausible events from model simulations. Firstly, in the case when consistent wind and tide-surge data are available, different metrics such as the height of the storm surge can be derived directly from the simulated water levels. Secondly, in cases where only atmospheric data are available, the so called effective wind may be used. The latter is the projection of the horizontal wind vector on that direction which is most effective in producing surges at the coast. Comparison of events identified by both methods show that they can identify extreme events but that knowledge of the effective wind alone does not provide sufficient information to identify the highest storm surges. Tracks of the low-pressure systems over the North Sea need to be investigated to find those cases, where the duration of the high wind is too short to induce extreme storm tides. On the other hand, factors such as external surges or variability in mean sea level may enhance surge heights and are not accounted for in estimates based on effective winds only. Results from the analysis of an extended data set suggest that unprecedented storm surges at the German North Sea coast are possible even without taking effects from rising mean sea level into account. The work presented is part of the ongoing project “Extreme North Sea Storm Surges and Their Consequences” (EXTREMENESS) and represents the first step towards an impact assessment for very severe storm surges which will serve as a basis for development of adaptation options and evaluation criteria.     

What dominates sea level at the coast: a case study for the Gulf of Guinea

Sea level variations and extreme events are a major threat for coastal zones. This threat is expected to worsen with time because low-lying coastal areas are expected to become more vulnerable to flooding and land loss as sea level rises in response to climate change. Sea level variations in the coastal ocean result from a combination of different processes that act at different spatial and temporal scales. In this study, the relative importance of processes causing coastal sea level variability at different time-scales is evaluated. Contributions from the altimetry-derived sea-level (including the sea level rise due to the ocean warming and land ice loss in response to climate change), dynamical atmospheric forcing induced sea level (surges), wave-induced run-up and set-up, and astronomical tides are estimated from observational datasets and reanalyses. As these processes impact the coast differently, evaluating their importance is essential for assessment of the local coastline vulnerability. A case study is developed in the Gulf of Guinea over the 1993–2012 period. The leading contributors to sea level variability off Cotonou differ depending on the time-scales considered. The trend is largely dominated by processes included in altimetric data and to a lesser extent by swell-waves run-up. The latter dominates interannual variations. Swell-waves run-up and tides dominate subannual variability. Extreme events are due to the conjunction of high tides and large swell run-up, exhibiting a clear seasonal cycle with more events in boreal summer and a trend mostly related to the trend in altimetric-derived sea-level.     

A cold pool formation in the Lakshadweep Sea during Indian summer monsoon

In Lakshadweep Sea, the distribution of observed sea surface temperature (SST) during summer monsoon season (June–September) shows the presence of a distinct cold pool (SST?<?27°C). Available satellite measurements and assimilated datasets are utilized to investigate the characteristics and mechanisms that govern the genesis and evolution of this cold pool. It is located in the grid 8° N–10° N/74° E–76° E, with a diameter of about 200?km, centered approximately at 9° N/75° E off the southwest coast of India. This cold pool, which we call as the Lakshadweep cold pool (LCP), forms invariably during the fifth pentad of June as a small cooling within the cold surface waters advected northward along the southwest coast of India from the Arabian Sea Mini Cold Pool. With the progress of the season, LCP intensifies, spread radially outwards and shows a westward spread during late July. Maximum intensity and radial spread are attained during July. By the end of August, LCP extends northward along the coast up to 13° N, and by September, it gets completely dissipated. Within the LCP, the thermocline exhibits pronounced shoaling compared to the adjacent regions. The intensity, duration, and spread of LCP showed annual variations in each summer monsoon during 1998–2005 and owes its origin to upwelling produced by uplift of poleward undercurrent induced by an elevated bathymetry in the presence of a seamount. The mechanism for the intensification is thought to be due to the combined action of Ekman pumping due to positive wind stress curl, eddy-induced upwelling due to the Lakshadweep low, and the intensification of the poleward undercurrent during the season. West- and northward spreads of LCP are attributed to the westward movement of Lakshadweep Low and the northerly spreading and intensification of positive wind stress curl, respectively. The mechanisms that govern this phenomenon are thoroughly examined.     

Effects of tide-surge interactions on storm surges along the coast of the Bohai Sea,Yellow Sea,and East China Sea

A two-dimensional coupled tide-surge model was used to investigate the effects of tide-surge interactions on storm surges along the coast of the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea. In order to estimate the impacts of tide-surge interactions on storm surge elevations, Typhoon 7203 was assumed to arrive at 12 different times, with all other conditions remaining constant. This allowed simulation of tide and total water levels for 12 separate cases. Numerical simulation results for Yingkou, Huludao, Shijiusuo, and Lianyungang tidal stations were analyzed. Model results showed wide variations in storm surge elevations across the 12 cases. The largest difference between 12 extreme storm surge elevation values was of up to 58 cm and occurred at Yingkou tidal station. The results indicate that the effects of tide-surge interactions on storm surge elevations are very significant. It is therefore essential that these are taken into account when predicting storm surge elevations.     

Dynamical Control of Pacific Oceanic Low-frequency Variability on Western Boundary and Marginal Seas

The adjustment of sea surface height (SSH) around the coasts of the Japan/East Sea (JES) and the South China Sea (SCS) basins subjected to extratropical Pacific Oceanic low frequency variability is studied using a Kelvin-planetary wave model and a high resolution numerical model. It is found that the modulation of SSH around the coast of Japan is mainly determined by slow adjustment of planetary waves, which radiate from the west coast of Honshu and Hokkaido due to the coastal Kelvin wave. In contrast, the SSH modulation around the cost of the South China Sea basin is mainly determined by the coastal Kelvin wave, which transfers the anomalous SSH into the SCS via the Luzon Strait and out via the Mindoro Strait. The planetary waves radiating from the west coast of Palawan establish a nearly uniform SSH anomaly in the southern part of the SCS, bounded by an eastward jet at the latitude of the Mindoro Strait. Along the western boundary, SSH anomaly decreases almost linearly toward the south, in accordance with the changing local deformation radius. In these two marginal seas, the mean subtropical Pacific gyre circulation enhances SSH modulation induced by extratropical Pacific low frequency variability. Overall, the SSH adjustment in the JES and the SCS predicted by the analytical model agrees well with the numerical model simulation. Application of this model to interaction between these marginal seas and the open ocean is discussed.     

印度尼西亚两次特大地震引发海啸和不引发海啸的比较研究

2004年12月26日苏门答腊岛安达曼海附近海域发生的9．0级地震和2005年3月28日苏门答腊岛明打威群岛北附近海域的8．7级地震,在构造环境、震级、震源深度、地震类型都相似的情况下,为何前者引发海啸,后者不引发的海啸？对此进行了对比分析,认为9．0级地震发生时,在其震源体附近的两板块相交的海沟两侧陡坡蕴育着滑坡体或和崩塌体（或者两者都有）,9．0级地震发生时,强烈的地震波,促使滑坡体的滑动或崩塌体的崩塌,推压和扰动海水,引发诲啸。而8．7级地震发生时、在其震源体附近的两板块相交的海沟两侧陡坡无滑坡体或和崩塌体,或先存滑坡体或崩塌体在9．0级地震发生时已滑坡或崩塌殆尽,当8.7地震发生时,无滑坡体滑动或崩塌体崩塌,不可能对海水有较大的扰动,故不可能引发海啸。     

Recent warming in the Yellow/East China Sea during winter and the associated atmospheric circulation

We examine characteristics in the variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Yellow/East China Sea during the boreal winter (December–January–February) for the period 1950–2008 in observations. It is found that the mean SST in the Yellow Sea/East China Sea gradually increases during recent decades. A warming trend of a basin scale SST is significant in most of the regions in the Yellow/East Sea, which is well explained by the variability of the first empirical orthogonal function SST mode. We suggest one candidate mechanism that the North Pacific oscillation (NPO)-like sea level pressure play an important role to warm the Yellow/East China Sea. Anomalous anticyclonic circulation, which is the southern lobe of NPO-like sea level pressure over the North Pacific, causes a weakening of northerly mean winds over the Yellow/East China Sea during winter. This contributes to increase in the SST in the Yellow/East China Sea through the changes in the latent heat and sensible heat fluxes.     

Observation of Sea Breeze Front and its Induced Convection over Chennai in Southern Peninsular India Using Doppler Weather Radar

Sea breeze, the onshore wind over a coastal belt during daytime, is a welcoming weather phenomenon as it modulates the weather condition by moderating the scorching temperature and acts as a favourable mechanism to trigger convection and induce precipitation over coastal and interior locations. Sea breeze aids dispersal of pollutants as well. Observational studies about its onset, depth of circulation and induced precipitation have been carried out in this paper for the period April to September, 2004–2005 using a S-band Doppler Weather Radar functioning at Cyclone Detection Radar Station, India Meteorological Department, Chennai, India. The onset of sea breeze has been observed to be between 0900 and 1000 UTC with the earliest onset at 0508 UTC and late onset at 1138 UTC. The frequency is greater during the southwest monsoon season, viz., June – September and the frequency of initial onset is greater in north Chennai. The modal length of sea breeze is between 20 and 50 km with extreme length as high as 100 km also having been observed. Though the inland penetration is on average 10 to 20 km, penetration reaching 100 km was also observed on a number of cases. The induced convection could be seen in the range 50–100 km in more than 53% of the cases. The mean depth of sea breeze circulation is 300–600 m but may go well beyond 1000 m on conducive atmospheric conditions.     

赤道MJO活动对南海夏季风爆发的影响

利用1979-2013年NCEP/DOE再分析资料的大气多要素日平均资料、美国NOAA日平均向外长波辐射资料和ERSST月平均海温资料,分析赤道大气季节内振荡(简称MJO)活动对南海夏季风爆发的影响及其与热带海温信号等的协同作用.结果表明,赤道MJO活动与南海夏季风爆发密切联系,MJO的湿位相(即对流活跃位相)处于西太平洋位相时,有利于南海夏季风爆发,而MJO湿位相处于印度洋位相时,则不利于南海夏季风爆发.赤道MJO活动影响南海夏季风爆发的物理过程主要是大气对热源响应的结果,当MJO湿位相处于西太平洋位相时,一方面热带西太平洋对流加强使潜热释放增加,导致处于热源西北侧的南海-西北太平洋地区对流层低层由于Rossby响应产生气旋性环流异常,气旋性环流异常则有利于西太平洋副热带高压的东退,另一方面菲律宾附近热源促进对流层高层南亚高压在中南半岛和南海北部的建立,使南海地区高层为偏东风,从而有利于南海夏季风建立;当湿位相MJO处于印度洋位相时,热带西太平洋对流减弱转为大气冷源,情况基本相反,不利于南海夏季风建立.MJO活动、孟加拉湾气旋性环流与年际尺度海温变化协同作用,共同对南海夏季风爆发迟早产生影响,近35年南海夏季风爆发时间与海温信号不一致的年份,基本上是由于季节转换期间的MJO活动特征及孟加拉湾气旋性环流是否形成而造成,因此三者综合考虑对于提高季风爆发时间预测水平具有重要意义.     

Ocean response to strong precipitation events in the Gulf of Lions (northwestern Mediterranean Sea): a sensitivity study

The Mediterranean Sea is a region of intense air–sea interactions, with in particular strong evaporation over sea which drives the thermohaline circulation. The Mediterranean region is also prone to strong precipitation events characterized by low spatial extent, short duration, and high temporal variability. The impacts of intense offshore precipitation over sea, in the Gulf of Lions which is a spot for winter deep convection, are investigated using four sensitivity simulations performed at mesoscale resolution with the eddy-resolving regional ocean model NEMO-MED12. We use various atmospheric fields to force NEMO-MED12, downscaled from reanalyses with the non-hydrostatic mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting model but differing in space resolutions (20 and 6.7 km) or in time frequencies (daily and three-hourly). This numerical study evidences that immediate, intense, and rapid freshening occurs under strong precipitation events. The strong salinity anomaly induced extends horizontally (≃50 km) as vertically (down to 50 m) and persists several days after strong precipitation events. The change in the space resolution of the atmospheric forcing modifies the precipitating patterns and intensity, as well as the shape and the dynamics of the low-salinity layer formed are changed. With higher forcing frequency, shorter and heavier precipitation falls in the ocean in the center of the Gulf of Lions, and due to a stronger vertical shear and mixing, the low-salinity anomaly propagates deeper.     

南海东部现时地壳运动、震源机制及晚中新世以来的板块相互作用

南海东部的板块汇聚带是了解南海和菲律宾海晚中新世以来构造演化的一个重要窗口.针对这一区域地壳运动的研究,获得了该区内微块体的现时地壳运动特征及其动力机制,在此基础上结合俯冲板片形态和震源机制资料提出了该区晚中新世以来的板块汇聚作用特征.研究发现:晚中新世晚期,菲律宾海板块西缘在南、北部的西向运动均受到限制的情况下,位于中间区域的吕宋岛北部则由于其西侧相对自由而继续往NW方向运动.该过程中,菲律宾大断裂等汇聚带内部的走滑断裂对于协调不同块体之间的地壳运动速度差异有着重要作用.受南、北阻挡的影响,中间部分的西向运动速率呈现出中间大(吕宋岛北部)两端小的特征.因而北吕宋西侧的马尼拉海沟也以相对于南部更快的速率不断向NW迁移.然而俯冲的南海岩石圈受其下方SE向地幔流的影响,未能发生相应的俯冲板片后撤,而是在两板块之间的直接接触面形成强烈推挤并发生反向弯曲.结合这一板块作用特征认为,马尼拉海沟现今的构造形迹是在上述背景下北段多次向NW方向变迁形成的,而双火山弧的形成则主要是由菲律宾海板块在吕宋岛弧南、北部的西向运动速率差异引起的.     

Interaction of tides and storm surges at the Elbe River mouth

The main regularities in the interaction of tides and storm surges at river mouths are discussed. A study of the Elbe River mouth area is used to describe the processes of interaction of the eustatic sea level rise, tides, surges, and river flow and special features of formation of maximum water levels. As shown, the intensification of cyclonic activity over the Northern Atlantic in the second half of the XX century resulted in more frequent extremely high storm surges at the Elbe River mouth. An assessment is given for possible changes in the regime of tides and surges at the Elbe River mouth in the XXI century, which may be caused by the acceleration of the eustatic sea level rise. The impact of local hydraulic engineering works (diking, dredging, and channel straightening) on maximum water levels within the town of Hamburg is analyzed.     

利用多年卫星测高资料研究南海上层环流季节特征

利用10年高精度卫星测高海面高异常网格资料,联合EGM96稳态海面地形模型,构成南海海域合成海面地形的时间序列,并计算了各个时期的南海表层地转流场. 利用卫星跟踪漂流浮标观测结果与相应时期南海地转流场进行对比验证,结果显示本文结果可以很好地反映南海海域一些中小尺度的环流特征. 根据南海各季节多年平均表层环流场结构,对南海环流周年变化规律和季节特征进行了初步的探讨. 研究结果表明,南海表层环流始终处在不断演变过程之中,在时间和空间上都表现出明显的多尺度特征.     

Performance of operational systems with respect to water level forecasts in the Gulf of Finland

This paper is devoted to the validation of water level forecasts in the Gulf of Finland. Daily forecasts produced by four setups of operational, three-dimensional Baltic Sea oceanographic models are analyzed using statistical means and are compared with water level observations at three Finnish stations located on the northern coast of the Gulf of Finland. The overall conclusion is that the operational systems were skillful in forecasting water level variations during the study period from November 1, 2003, to January 31, 2005. The factors causing differences between the water level forecasts of different models are discussed as well. An important task of operational sea level forecasting services is to provide accurate and early information about extreme water levels, both positive and negative surges. During the study period, two major winter storms occurred which caused coastal flooding in the region. According to our analysis, the operational models forecast the rise of water levels during these events rather successfully. Nowadays, operational forecasts can provide early warnings of extreme water levels at least 1 day in advance, which may be regarded as a minimum requirement for an operational forecasting system. The paper concludes that the models generally performed very well, with over 93% of the hourly water level forecasts found to be within the range of ±15 cm of the observed water levels, and with the timing of the water level peaks accurately predicted. Further discussion and studies dealing with the assessment of the skills of both operational meteorological and oceanographic forecasts, especially in connection with rare surge events, will be necessary. Skill assessment of operational oceanographic models would be relatively easy if acceptable error limits or a quality system was developed for the Baltic Sea operational models.