基于遗传算法的冻土路基融沉可靠性分析

在冻土路基融沉变形极限状态方程的基础上,从可靠度指标的几何涵义出发,提出了基于遗传算法的冻土路基融沉可靠度指标和失效概率的计算方法。该法是一种全局优化算法,能有效克服传统搜索算法易陷入局部极小值的缺点,不需要对功能函数进行直接转换,避免了功能函数比较复杂时所带来的求解困难,特别适合求解非线性规划问题。以青藏铁路冻土路基的具体实例,验证了本方法的准确性和有效性     

Reliability analysis of the induced damage for single-hole rock blasting

Rock explosion has always been a complex problem because neither rock characteristics nor explosion waves could be accurately estimated. As such, this imposes a high uncertainty on deterministic methodologies available for damage prediction. In this paper, by defining two damage zones around the blast hole, including crushed and cracked zones, a first-order reliability analysis (FORM) was adopted to address this issue. For this purpose, FORM was used in a double-loop algorithm, where the inner loop was responsible for converging the FORM, and the outer loop was assigned to feed the inner loop with new cases. Using such nested-loop algorithm, the probability of exceedance was calculated for any desired damage zone radius. The maximum effect of the involved parameters on the failure probability induced around the blast hole was additionally studied using a parametric reliability analysis. The results showed that the radii for crushed and cracked zones are limited to 0.5 and 4.2?m, respectively, so that the probability of going beyond these limits is less than 1%. Moreover, the analyses of decoupled explosions showed that increasing the gap between the explosion charge and wall of the borehole could severely reduce the failure probability; however, the maximum effect of decoupling ratio occurs in the small range of radii between 0.3?mm and 2.35?m.     

A FORM-based approach for probabilistic analysis in geotechnics: Application to a reinforced concrete drainage culvert

As numerical models are increasingly used as a design tool in geotechnical engineering, it is highly desirable if geotechnical reliability analysis can be conducted based on numeral models. Currently, the practical use of geotechnical reliability analysis-based numerical models is still quite limited. In this study, an easy to access method is derived to conduct geotechnical reliability analysis based on numerical models. To facilitate its application, a procedure is outlined to implement the suggested method such that geotechnical reliability analysis can be automated using existing geotechnical numerical packages. The procedure is illustrated in detail with an example, and the source codes provided can be easily adapted to analyze other similar problems. The method described in this paper is used to study the reliability of a deteriorating reinforced concrete drainage culvert in Shanghai, China. The suggested method provides a convenient means for reliability analysis of complex geotechnical problems.     

Stochastic design of beams on reinforced random earth beds in deterministic mode

One of the main soil parameters in analysis and design of foundations is modulus of subgrade reaction (MSR) which is a stochastic process. However, design engineers prefer a deterministic approach invoking mean of MSR and rather empirical factors of safety to account for the uncertainty. The present study includes the stochasticity in the deterministic designs by linking the factors of safety (in respect of maximum deflection and bending moment) to the allowable risk of failure through a Monte Carlo simulation on a lumped parameter deterministic model. A parametric study reveals that for a given risk level, the factors of safety are strongly dependent upon the coefficient of variation of MSR, and only mildly upon other geometric parameters of foundation system. This facilitates development of closed form equations for the upper bounds on factors of safety exclusively in terms of allowable risk of failure and the coefficient of variation of MSR.     

基于可靠度理论的滑坡稳定性及其影响因素分析

基于可靠度理论,利用Morgenstern-Price法、Ordinary法、Bishop法和Janbu法等4类极限平衡方法对台州市北水南调工程朱溪引水段Ⅷ号滑坡的稳定性进行了分析,设计了最不利组合、最有利组合、平均值组合的确定性分析方案,目的是为可靠度计算结果提供对比基准;设计了Monte-Carlo循环次数为5 000,50 000,500 000,5 000 000次等4种计算工况,岩土参数的概率分布函数为正态分布、三角形分布和均匀分布等3种情况,方差等于0.5,1.0,2.0,3.0,4.0,5.0倍初始实验方差等6种计算方案,岩土参数间相关性在-1.0～1.0间按0.25等幅变化的9种情况。研究发现,循环次数仅对安全系极值有较大影响,对可靠度指标影响不大;分布函数和数据离散性均会对结果精度造成影响;参数相关性仅对失效概率造成较大影响。     

土钉支护结构可靠度分析的电子表格法

岩土工程中存在大量的不确定性,因此,进行土钉支护结构的可靠度分析是十分必要的。利用Excel的规划求解及VB编程功能,采用电子表格法,建立了适用于分层土体的电子表格计算模型,进行了土钉支护结构内部稳定的可靠度分析,得出了最小可靠指标及其相应的临界滑面位置。建立的电子表格模型由数据输入模块、土钉计算模块、土层计算模块、可靠指标计算模块及优化求解模块5部分组成。模型建立之后,只需改变电子表格中的输入数据,即可适用于不同土钉支护结构的可靠度分析。算例分析表明：方法正确,计算过程简单直观。它既可用于不同工况下土钉支护结构内部稳定的可靠度分析,也可简化为相应情况下的定值法分析。     

基于综合变异系数的地基承载力可靠性分析

采用一次二阶矩法,考虑岩土参量变异系数的试验及历史数据,提出了基于综合变异系数的地基承载力简化可靠性与风险分析方法。利用提出的简化可靠性与风险分析方法,可在传统确定性分析的基础上,采用合理的变异系数,分别得到与地基承载力有关的可靠度、破坏概率和平均期望损失的最可能值及其变化范围,为提出优化的地基基础设计方案和工程决策奠定基础;相对于土重度和黏聚力,地基承载力可靠度对于内摩擦角的变化更加敏感;设计时可以综合考虑所需的安全系数、可靠度和破坏概率,确定合适的基础宽度或基底面积。当地基土的场地勘察统计结果的变异系数权重逐渐增加时,综合变异系数不断减小,其相应的地基承载力的可靠度逐渐增加,而相应的破坏概率逐渐减少。     

稳定性可靠度分析在三峡库区二里半滑坡中的应用

介绍了用于滑坡稳定性可靠度分析的Monte Carlo模拟法、中心点法、验算点法和统计矩法.在分析三峡库区二里半滑坡工程地质特征的基础上,采用稳定性系数作为状态函数,对滑坡稳定性可靠度进行了分析,结果表明在175 m水位 暴雨、水位由175 m骤降 暴雨、暴雨 Ⅵ烈度地震等工况下二里半滑坡的稳定性均较差,破坏概率较高,需要进行治理.     

某露天铁矿冰碛土台阶边坡可靠性分析

以某露天矿边坡台阶为研究对象,提出一种新的可靠度求取方法———简化统计矩法。采用该法对原设计的台阶边坡和本研究所推荐的台阶边坡进行了可靠性分析。分析结果表明,台阶边坡破坏概率较高,主要是由冰碛土强度的固有不确定性、抗风化能力以及水理性质决定的,而边坡结构因素对其影响不显著。建议采取平台宽度3 m、3 m和16 m的三台阶组方案,同时采用截洪和护坡等有效措施来提高台阶边坡的稳定。     

Risk analysis of fractured rock mass underground structures

Recent accidents in underground structures have raised the risk awareness of the geotechnical engineering community. Geotechnical design is subject to significant uncertainties in load and strength parameters as well as in engineering models. However, engineering models which objectively address such uncertainties in design are still scarce. This paper presents an objective framework for the quantification of the risks involved in underground structures excavated in fractured rock masses, where structural failures may occur due to block falls. The framework considers the structure as a distributed system, where falling block probabilities are integrated over the main structural dimension. Random block size and geometry, arising from random joint orientation, are taken into account, as well as uncertainties in joint strength and geometrical parameters. A cost function is used to quantify failure consequences in terms of the block size. The framework is demonstrated in an application to a case study involving a real structure: the Paulo Afonso IV power station cavern. Results of the case study show that the studied cavern presents high reliability and very low risk. The framework proposed herein is shown to be a practical tool for the risk evaluation of underground structures constructed in rock masses, such as caverns and tunnels.     

基于三维地质信息模型的边坡风险分析

风险分析是降低边坡灾害损失的有效途径。以地理信息系统（Arcview GIS）为二次开发平台,建立边坡风险评估系统。该系统通过建立边坡的三维地质信息模型,根据模型的物理力学参数等属性数据,运用Monte-Carlo法求出三维边坡的失效概率,在易损性分析的基础上,计算边坡失稳的经济风险和生命风险。实例分析表明,基于三维地质信息模型的边坡风险分析可为相关风险决策提供科学依据     

重力式基坑支护系统的可靠性分析

本文分析了重力式基坑支护系统可能包含的多重破坏模式后,在考虑土性参数不确定性的情况下,运用系统可靠度理论对基坑支护系统的失效概率进行分析和计算。结果表明该方法能对基坑系统的稳定性作出较全面的评价。     

基于非线性破坏准则的主动土压力上限计算

主要叙述了一种基于非线性破坏准则下的主动土压力计算分析方法。引入Power-Law非线性破坏准则,并根据切线法引入了变量 ,建立了一个统一的容许速度场,通过上限分析得出了主动土压力的计算表达式。由于主动土压力计算表达式中自变量个数繁多,为实现对上限解的最优化,应用了大型的数学规划软件,采用了目前广泛使用的SQP算法,得出了最优的上限解。通过与同样引入Power-Law非线性破坏准则后的朗肯土压力理论解的比较,发现所述的方法切实有效,并且适用范围更加广泛。     

基于不平衡推力法的边坡可靠度分析

Rosenblueth方法是一种简单实用的可靠度指标计算方法,不需要了解各状态变量分布函数,只要利用它们的均值和方差,就可求得边坡的可靠指标。推导了下滑力超载储备安全系数的显式表达式,以此式作为边坡可靠度分析的状态函数,结合Rosenblueth方法的优点,给出了一种边坡稳定可靠度分析的实用方法。     

基于改进一次二阶矩法的赵家坡高切坡稳定性分析

为了更客观和科学地评价斜坡的稳定性,采用结构可靠度中的改进一次二阶矩法来分析斜坡的稳定性,同时采用新的、更适于计算机编程的求可靠指标解的迭代方法,对三峡库区赵家坡高切坡第二段稳定性分析标明：（1）潜在滑动面1可靠指标和破坏概率均满足允许风险水平,稳定性程度较高,只需进行表面防护即可;（2）潜在滑动面2可靠指标和破坏概率均不满足允许风险水平,需要进行整体加固并辅以坡面防护;（3）稳定性系数与可靠度分析结果有良好的一致性。     

基于指标信度测度赋权的岩溶隧道水害危险性集对云评价研究

隧道水害危险性评价是一个非线性复杂的不确定系统问题。首先,针对其评价指标参数具有不确定性、模糊性和随机性等特点,在充分考虑岩溶隧道水害危险性评价指标关联性的基础上,提出了基于Jousselme距离的指标信度测度动态赋权理论,实现不同的实例、不同的指标实测值对整个系统的动态赋权,降低实际工作中由于指标实测值误差或错误导致评价结果偏差的风险;其次,运用云理论优化集对联系度,与所得权重加权得出系统综合云联系度,并与等级评价区间期望加权平均得到危险值,同时生成对应的等级云图判定隧道水害危险性等级,进而判定岩溶隧道水害危险状态,实现水害危险等级判定的可视化;再次,基于大气降水为岩溶隧道水害主要来源的视角,选取年均降水量、入渗系数、汇水面积、渗透系数和单位涌水量5项指标作为集对云评价指标,并以6条典型岩溶隧道为样本数据进行模型检验,发现评价结果与其他方法的评价结果相吻合,证明了该模型的可靠性和有效性。最后,将模型应用于京珠高速公路媲双坳岩溶隧道水害事故中,评价结果与实际情况相符,采取与评价等级相对应的处治措施,取得了良好的水害治理效果,表明该模型具有工程实用价值,评价流程可操作性强,为岩溶隧道水害的预测和防治提供参考。     

考虑桩底沉渣的灌注桩可靠度分析方法

基桩的完整性检测不一定都能够检测到基桩中的缺陷,这些缺陷将会影响到基桩的安全性。为此,提出了考虑基桩可能出现缺陷时的基桩可靠度分析方法。以单桩桩底可能出现的沉渣缺陷为例,采用全概率理论将完整桩的失效概率和桩底含有沉渣的桩的失效概率有机地结合起来,得到了单桩的失效概率。采用基桩承载力折减系数来定量地考虑沉渣对基桩承载力的影响,并进一步推导了桩底含沉渣的基桩承载力偏差系数和变异系数的计算公式。算例分析表明,所提方法能够定量地反映基桩中可能出现的沉渣对基桩可靠度的影响。桩底沉渣对桩的可靠指标具有明显的不利影响。随着沉渣厚度和桩的直径的增加,桩底含有沉渣的桩的可靠指标逐渐减小;桩的可靠指标随着桩长的增加逐渐增大。如果不考虑桩可能出现沉渣的质量问题,基桩的安全性将明显地被高估。基桩的完整性检测可以有效地提高基桩的安全性。     

Earthquake disaster risk index for Canadian cities using Bayesian belief networks

Devastation observed from global earthquakes highlights the need for a decision-making tool to aid in prioritisation and resource allocation for seismic risk management. In this paper, a seismic risk index assessment tool is developed using Bayesian belief network (BBN) that considers geological, engineering, economic, social, political and cultural factors. Previously proposed hierarchical structure is modified and modelled using a BBN. The subjective probabilities of the BBN are derived using expert knowledge. Furthermore, to illustrate versatility of the proposed model, a case study is undertaken for 11 Canadian cities.     

Load and resistance factor design (LRFD) calibration for steel grid reinforced soil walls

This paper reports the results of load and resistance factor design (LRFD) calibration for pullout and yield limit states for steel grid reinforced soil walls owing to soil self-weight loading plus permanent uniform surcharge. The calibration method uses bias statistics to account for prediction accuracy of the underlying deterministic models for reinforcement load, pullout capacity and yield strength of the steel grids, and random variability in input parameters. A new revised pullout design model is proposed to improve pullout resistance prediction accuracy and to remove hidden dependency with calculated pullout resistance values. Load and resistance factors are proposed that give a uniform probability of failure of 1% for both pullout and yield limit states. The approach adopted in this paper has application to a wide variety of other reinforced soil wall technologies.     

The mechanical behaviour and design concerns for a hybrid reinforced earth embankment built in limited width adjacent to a slope

This paper aims to investigate the mechanical behaviour of a hybrid reinforced earth embankment built in limited width adjacent to a slope. This embankment system incorporates reinforced earth embankments with soil nails, installed in the existing ground. Soil nails work to provide additional resisting forces to stabilize the embankment which may be unstable due to insufficient reinforcement length. Nail forces developed in the hybrid reinforced earth embankment with various geometric conditions in the fill space are analyzed. The FE method is used to simulate the construction of the hybrid reinforced earth embankment. Influence of reinforcement length, reinforcement stiffness, and slope gradient on the nail forces developed following the construction is analyzed and discussed. Additionally, design concerns for the hybrid reinforced earth embankment system are also studied. Simple charts for estimating the maximum nail force mobilized at back of the hybrid reinforced earth embankment are established in this research and can be helpful in the design of the soil nails in the system.