The Role of diabatic heating, torques and stabilities in forcing the radial- vertical circulation within cyclones part iii: case study of lee-side cyclones

１．ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＡｎａｇｒｅｅｍｅｎｔｂｅｔｗｅｅｎｔｈｅｓｉｍｕｌａｔｅｄａｎｄ“ｏｂｓｅｒｖｅｄ”ａｚｉｍｕｔｈａｌｙ－ａｖｅｒａｇｅｄｍａｓ－ｗｅｉｇｈｔｅｄｒａｄｉａｌｍｏｔｉｏｎｓｈａｓｂｅｎｅｓｔａｂｌｉｓｈｅｄｆｏｒｔｈｅＯ...     

Radiative Forcing of SO2 and NOx： A Case Study in Beijing

A case study was performed in Beijing in 2000 to observe concentrations of SO2 and NOx in the atmosphere and to evaluate their radiative impact. It was found that the concentrations of these gases are usually high in the morning due to a temperature inversion in the boundary layer. The average concentrations obtained from the observations are much higher than those used in the McClatchey reference atmosphere. The radiative impacts of these gases are calculated using a line-by-line radiative transfer model. The results show that the radiative forcing at the surface due to SO2 is 0.0576 W m-2 and that due to NOx is 0.0032 W m-2. These figures are almost compatible with that due to CFC11.     

On the Forcing of the Radial-vertical Circulation within Cyclones-Part 1: Concepts and Equations

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The role of the Indian Ocean in determining the tropical pacific SST response to radiative forcing in an idealized model

The complexity of the tropical climate system demands the development of a hierarchy of models to ensure our understanding of its response to anthropogenic forcing. The response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to radiative forcing has been studied previously with a box model. The model has provided insights into the tropical Pacific climate change that are otherwise not easily attainable. But that model only encompasses the tropical Pacific region. Recent studies have also shown that the Indian Ocean (IO) may be important in the response of the Pacific Walker circulation to radiative forcing, raising the need to expand the model to take into account the role of IO. This study presents the results concerning the tropical Pacific response to radiative forcing from an expanded-box model that includes the tropical IO, which influences the tropical Pacific through an inter-basin SST gradient.The three-box model predicts an enhanced zonal SST gradient in tropical Pacific in response to the increased radiative forcing, similar to the previous two-box model. It is further noted that in the three-box model, a warmer IO relative to the Pacific enhances Pacific easterlies and subsequently strengthens the equatorial ocean circulation. Because of this ocean dynamical cooling, the warming response in the Pacific is effectively reduced in the three-box model that includes the role of IO compared with that in the two-box model. The role of the IO warming trend in enhancing the Pacific trade winds is confirmed using an atmospheric general circulation model experiment. These results may help to fully explain the relatively small observed warming trend in the tropical Pacific compared to that in the tropical IO evident in 20th century SST reconstructions.     

孟加拉湾春季小型暖池对热带气旋的影响研究

本文研究了2017年春季孟加拉湾小型暖池对热带气旋Maarutha（4月14-17日）以及热带气旋Mora（5月27-30日）的影响.利用卫星遥感和现场观测数据分析发现,尽管春季孟加拉湾热带气旋确实能引起海洋上层冷却效应,但是其冷却强度受到暖池强度的影响.本文进一步对比孟加拉湾小型暖池对两个热带气旋的响应情况,发现当春季小型暖池的温度大于31℃（热带气旋Mora期间）,暖池效应能有效抑制海洋上层混合层的加深,降低热带气旋引起的潜热通量损失带来的冷却效应,并在一定程度上加强了热带气旋.     

A model study of the Little Ice Age and beyond: changes in ocean heat content,hydrography and circulation since 1500

The Earth System Climate Model from the University of Victoria is used to investigate changes in ocean properties such as heat content, temperature, salinity, density and circulation during 1500 to 2000, the time period which includes the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1500–1850) and the industrial era (1850–2000). We force the model with two different wind-stress fields which take into account the North Atlantic Oscillation. Furthermore, temporally varying radiative forcings due to volcanic activity, insolation changes and greenhouse gas changes are also implemented. We find that changes in the upper ocean (0–300 m) heat content are mainly driven by changes in radiative forcing, except in the polar regions where the varying wind-stress induces changes in ocean heat content. In the full ocean (0–3,000 m) the wind-driven effects tend to reduce, prior to 1700, the downward trend in the ocean heat content caused by the radiative forcing. Afterwards no dynamical effect is visible. The colder ocean temperatures in the top 600 m during the LIA are caused by changes in radiative forcing, while the cooling at the bottom is wind-driven. The changes in salinity are small except in the Arctic Ocean. The reduced salinity content in the subsurface Arctic Ocean during the LIA is a result from reduced wind-driven inflow of saline water from the North Atlantic. At the surface of the Arctic Ocean the changes in salinity are caused by changes in sea–ice thickness. The changes in density are a composite picture of the temperature and salinity changes. Furthermore, changes in the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) are caused mainly by a varying wind-stress forcing; the additional buoyancy driven changes due to the radiative forcings are small. The simulated MOC is reduced during the LIA as compared to the industrial era. On the other hand, the ventilation rate in the Southern Ocean is increased during the LIA.     

Relationship between cross-equatorial flows over the Bay of Bengal and Australia in boreal summer:Role of tropical diabatic heating

本文通过对1979-2017年夏季925 hPa经向风异常进行经验正交函数(EOF)分解,研究了亚澳季风区内越赤道气流的年际变化特征.结果表明,越赤道气流的第一模态表现为亚澳季风区内不同通道间的同相变化,即一致加强或减弱;第二模态表现为孟加拉湾和澳大利亚越赤道气流的反相变化,其中新几内亚和孟加拉湾越赤道气流的反相变化最...     

青藏高原热力强迫对中国东部降水和水汽输送的调制作用

从4个方面综述了有关青藏高原大地形热力“驱动”对中国东部雨带和水汽输送特征及其年代际变化的影响作用的研究进展:(1)中国三阶梯大地形热力过程变化与季风雨带季节演进;(2) 青藏高原地-气过程热力“驱动”及其季风水汽输送结构;(3) 青藏高原积雪冷源对中国东部水汽输送结构及其雨带分布的影响;(4) 青藏高原视热源变化与雨带年代际变化相关特征及其可能调制。其主要研究结论是:(1)中国西部高原特殊三阶梯大地形结构强化了海-陆热力差异,尤其是高原大地形使地-气热力差异季节变化有由青藏高原向东北方向大地形区域延伸变化趋势,且其与季风雨带由东南沿海移向西北朝青藏高原与黄土高原边缘同步演进,两者似乎存在类似季节内演进的一种“动态的吸引”。(2)中国东部雨带时空变化特征和季风强弱变化趋势均与青藏高原热源强弱异常变化相对应。青藏高原热源异常影响低纬度海洋向陆地的水汽传输路径和强度,进而调制中国东部降水时空演变。在青藏高原热源强和弱年,中国降水变率空间分布特征分别为“北涝南旱”和“南涝北旱”。青藏高原视热源强(弱)异常变化“强信号”将对东亚与南亚区域的季风水汽输送结构,以及夏季风降水时空分布的变异具有“前兆性”的指示意义。(3)长江中下游地区作为独特南北两支水汽流的汇合带,该地区夏季青藏高原热源与水汽通量相关矢特征呈类似于青藏高原多雪与少雪年水汽通量偏差场中水汽汇合区显著特征差异,揭示了冬季青藏高原积雪冷源影响中国东部夏季长江流域梅雨水汽输送结构特征。(4)中国降水的年代际变化基本型态为中国东部呈“南涝北旱趋势”,西北区域呈现出“西部转湿趋势”。但基于近10年青藏高原春季视热源出现“降后回升”趋势,中国东部“南涝北旱”的降水格局已出现转折趋势。     

Numerical modelling of the turbulent flow developing within and over a 3-d building array,part ii: a mathematical foundation for a distributed drag force approach

In this paper, we lay the foundations of a systematic mathematical formulation for the governing equations for flow through an urban canopy (e.g., coarse-scaled building array) where the effects of the unresolved obstacles on the flow are represented through a distributed mean-momentum sink. This, in turn, implies additional corresponding terms in the transport equations for the turbulence quantities. More specifically, a modified k-- model is derived for the simulation of the mean wind speed and turbulence for a neutrally stratified flow through and over a building array, where groups of buildings in the array are aggregated and treated as a porous medium. This model is based on time averaging the spatially averaged Navier--Stokes equations, in which the effects of the obstacle--atmosphere interaction are included through the introduction of a volumetric momentum sink (representing drag on the unresolved buildings in the array).The k-- turbulence closure model requires two additional prognostic equations, namely one for the time-averaged resolved-scale kinetic energy of turbulence,, and another for the dissipation rate, , of . The transport equation for is derived directly from the transport equation for the spatially averaged velocity, and explicitly includes additional sources and sinks that arise from time averaging the product of the spatially averaged velocity fluctuations and the distributed drag force fluctuations. We show how these additional source/sink terms in the transport equation for can be obtained in a self-consistent manner from a parameterization of the sink term in the spatially averaged momentum equation. Towards this objective, the time-averaged product of the spatially averaged velocity fluctuations and the distributed drag force fluctuations can be approximated systematically using a Taylor series expansion. A high-order approximation is derived to represent this source/sink term in the transport equation for . The dissipation rate () equation is simply obtained as a dimensionally consistent analogue of the equation. The relationship between the proposed mathematical formulation of the equations for turbulent flow within an urban canopy (where the latter is treated as a porous medium) and an earlier heuristic two-band spectral decomposition for parameterizing turbulence in a plant canopy is explored in detail.     

论河南“75.8”特大暴雨的研究:回顾与评述

“75.8”河南特大暴雨的发生已经过去40年了,它在人们的记忆中留下深刻的印象。这场暴雨在1975年8月5—7日3 d之内在河南南部的局部地区降下了1605 mm的总雨量,1、3、6、12 h雨量均破中国降水的历史记录。由于水库垮坝,洪水夺走了该区约2万6千人的生命,经济损失巨大。在这40年间,中国的暴雨研究和预报都取得了重大的进展。其中一个重要原因是中国的气象和水文部门从这场空前强烈的大暴雨和大洪水事件中吸取了宝贵的经验教训,多年来,以这场超级大暴雨洪水为借鉴,不断促进和鼓励中国气象学家向暴雨研究和预报发展的更高目标前进。有感于此,回顾和评述了当年老一辈科学家在比较艰苦的条件下所进行的这次大暴雨的研究活动,以及所获得的卓越科学成果。即使从今天来看,其中不少成果也具有创新性的意义,在中国暴雨研究的发展史上,占有十分重要甚至里程碑式的地位。文中重点对其中的关键科学问题进行了评述,包括:(1)“75.8”特大暴雨的雨情和极值;(2)“75.8”特大暴雨发生的原因;(3)“75.8”特大暴雨的动力诊断;(4)暴雨中尺度分析;(5)地形对暴雨的增幅作用。希望以此纪念河南“75.8”特大暴雨发生40周年,并表达对参与此次研究活动的老一辈科学家深深的怀念和敬意。     

The seasonal variation of the upper layers of the South China Sea (SCS) circulation and the Indonesian through flow (ITF): An ocean model study

The upper layer, wind-driven circulation of the South China Sea (SCS), its through-flow (SCSTF) and the Indonesian through flow (ITF) are simulated using a high resolution model, FVCOM (finite volume coastal ocean model) in a regional domain comprising the Maritime Continent. The regional model is embedded in the MIT global ocean general circulation model (ogcm) which provides surface forcing and boundary conditions of all the oceanographic variables at the lateral open boundaries in the Pacific and Indian oceans. A five decade long simulation is available from the MITgcm and we choose to investigate and compare the climatologies of two decades, 1960–1969 and 1990–1999.The seasonal variability of the wind-driven circulation produced by the monsoon system is realistically simulated. In the SCS the dominant driving force is the monsoon wind and the surface circulation reverses accordingly, with a net cyclonic tendency in winter and anticyclonic in summer. The SCS circulation in the 90s is weaker than in the 60s because of the weaker monsoon system in the 90s. In the upper 50 m the interaction between the SCSTF and ITF is very important. The southward ITF can be blocked by the SCSTF at the Makassar Strait during winter. In summer, part of the ITF feeds the SCSTF flowing into the SCS through the Karimata Strait. Differently from the SCS, the ITF is primarily controlled by the sea level difference between the western Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean. The ITF flow, consistently southwestward below the surface layer, is stronger in the 90s.The volume transports for winter, summer and yearly are estimated from the simulation through all the interocean straits. On the annual average, there is a ∼5.6 Sv of western Pacific water entering the SCS through the Luzon Strait and ∼1.4 Sv exiting through the Karimata Strait into the Java Sea. Also, ∼2 Sv of SCS water enters the Sulu Sea through the Mindoro Strait, while ∼2.9 Sv flow southwards through the Sibutu Strait merging into the ITF. The ITF inflow occurs through the Makassar Strait (up to ∼62%) and the Lifamatola Strait (∼38%). The annual average volume transport of the ITF inflow from the simulation is ∼15 Sv in the 60s and ∼16.6 Sv in the 90s, very close to the long term observations. The ITF outflow through the Lombok, Ombai and Timor straits is ∼16.8 Sv in the 60s and 18.9 Sv in the 90s, with the outflow greater by 1.7 Sv and 2.3 Sv respectively. The transport estimates of the simulation at all the straits are in rather good agreement with the observational estimates.We analyze the thermal structure of the domain in the 60s and 90s and assess the simulated temperature patterns against the SODA reanalysis product, with special focus on the shallow region of the SCS. The SODA dataset clearly shows that the yearly averaged temperatures of the 90s are overall warmer than those of the 60s in the surface, intermediate and some of the deep layers and the decadal differences (90s − 60s) indicate that the overall warming of the SCS interior is a local effect. In the simulation the warm trend from the 60s to the 90s in well reproduced in the surface layer. In particular, the simulated temperature profiles at two shallow sites at midway in the SCSTF agree rather well with the SODA profiles. However, the warming trend in the intermediate (deep) layers is not reproduced in the simulation. We find that this deficiency is mostly due to a deficiency in the initial temperature fields provide by the MITgcm.     

弱垂直风切变下台前飑线不同发展阶段的热、动力特征分析

以2014年7月18日09号超强台风"威马逊"影响期间,发生在湘赣地区的一次台前飑线过程为例,讨论了在垂直风切变明显弱于中纬度飑线情况下台前飑线的生成与发展机制。研究表明:1)在飑线初生阶段,弱垂直风切变与较弱冷池相平衡使得飑线垂直发展,其前部上干冷下暖湿的不稳定环境条件是其发展加强的热力因素;台风倒槽右侧风向水平切变、飑线前侧的阵风锋是其发展的动力条件。2)在飑线成熟阶段,飑线后侧的地面冷池范围变大、强度变强,导致飑线前方的水汽及能量补给减弱;同时飑线后部中层干冷空气入侵加强,飑线上升气流向冷池方向倾斜,垂直抬升条件减弱,不利于台前飑线的发展维持。成熟阶段的这两个特点表明台前飑线由盛转衰。3)在飑线消散阶段,由于飑线远离台风,台风的影响减弱,导致台前飑线水汽和动力条件不足,从而消亡。     

1998 年青藏高原春季地温异常对长江中下游夏季暴雨影响的研究

文章探讨了长江中下游夏季暴雨前期青藏高原春季各层次地温的分布特征,重点讨论了1998年夏季长江中下游暴雨前期春季高原的三维热力结构,以及其三维热力结构与其它涝年的相似性,尤其是1998年春季高原地温分布呈现出与其它涝年春季相似的特征;数值模拟试验也证实了1998年春季青藏高原下垫面三维热力结构特征,对长江中下游夏季降水存在着显著影响。青藏高原春季地温在中部等大部分地区为负距平,南部及东部边缘为正距平时,长江中下游地区夏季多雨,即青藏高原春季三维热力结构特征是导致长江中下游地区夏季降水偏多的重要原因之一。     

The influence of volcanic, solar and CO2 forcing on the temperatures in the Dalton Minimum (1790–1830): a model study

The Dalton Minimum (1790–1830) was a period with reduced solar irradiance and strong volcanic eruptions. Additionally, the atmospheric CO₂ concentrations started to rise from the background level of previous centuries. In this period most empirical climate reconstructions indicate a minimum in global or hemispheric temperatures. Here, we analyse several simulations starting in 1755 with the coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHO-G driven by different forcing combinations to investigate which external forcing could have contributed most strongly to the reduced temperatures during the Dalton Minimum. Results indicate that on global and hemispheric scales, the volcanic forcing is largely responsible for the temperature drop in this period, especially during its second half, whereas changes in solar forcing and the increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations were of minor importance. At regional scales, especially the extratropical, the impact of volcanic forcing is much less discernible due to the large regional variability, a finding that agrees with empirical temperature reconstructions.     

Resonance of baroclinic waves in the tropical oceans: The Indian Ocean and the far western Pacific

The Indian Ocean has a particularity, its width is close to half the wavelength of a Rossby wave of biannual frequency, this coincidence having been capitalized on by several authors to give the observations a physical basis. The purpose of this article is to show that this is not the case since the resonance of tropical baroclinic waves occurs in all three oceans. This is because the westward-propagating Rossby wave is retroflexed at the western boundary to form off-equatorial Rossby waves dragged by countercurrents before receding and turning back as a Kelvin wave. Thus a quasi-stationary baroclinic wave is formed, whose mean period is tuned to the forcing period. Two independent basin modes resonantly forced are highlighted – 1) a nearly symmetric zonal 1/2-yr period Quasi-Stationary Wave (QSW) that is resonantly forced by the biannual monsoon. It is formed from first baroclinic mode equatorial-trapped Rossby and Kelvin waves and off-equatorial Rossby waves at the western antinode. This QSW controls the Equatorial Counter Current at the node. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) results from a subharmonic mode locking resulting from the coupling of this QSW and the 2nd, 3rd and 4th baroclinic modes - 2) a 1-yr period QSW formed from an off-equatorial baroclinic Rossby wave, which is induced from the southernmost current of the Indonesian Throughflow through the Timor passage, propagating in the southern and northern hemispheres: the drivers are south-easterlies in the southern hemisphere and monsoon wind in the northern hemisphere.     

黄渤海北部沿海大风时空变化特征

基于1971-2008年黄渤海北部沿海18个基本气象站风向、风速历史资料和NCEP再分析资料,利用统计学、小波分析和天气学分型方法分析了黄渤海北部辽宁沿海风场时空变化特征。结果表明：黄渤海北部沿海大风呈明显减少趋势,大风主要出现在春季,4月最多,11月份次之。风向主要以偏北风和偏南风为主,夏半年主要以南风为主,冬半年盛行偏北风。海上大风的天气学分型主要划分为冷锋后部型、高压后部型、台风型和气旋型,其中气旋型又包括江淮气旋型、华北气旋型、蒙古气旋型和东北低压型;冷锋后部型大风出现次数最多,气旋型次之,台风型最少。     

The role of non-nation-state actors and side events in the international climate negotiations

United Nations climate change conferences have attracted an increasing number and range of observer participants, often outnumbering national delegates. The interactions between the formal and informal spaces of climate governance at the Conference of the Parties (COP) are explored by investigating why non-nation state actors (NNSAs) attend them and by measuring to what extent official UN Side Events provide relevant information for the formal negotiations. Based on primary empirical research at recent COPs, it is found that 60–75% of Side Events have related directly to items under negotiation in the post-2012 climate negotiations. In this regard, Side Events that facilitate informal exchange between stakeholders not only provide input into the negotiations but also allow issues beyond the realm of the negotiations to be discussed, reflecting the scope of climate change. Although Side Events are an effective forum to exchange ideas and network, their current format and purpose as being events ‘on the side’ does not offer a sufficient framework for coordination between the work of NNSAs and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process.     

青藏高原东北缘山地农户对气候变化的感知及适应策略——以湟水中游为例

以青藏高原东北缘山地地区不同海拔高度地理单元村落的农户为调查对象,进行气候变化、气象灾害的感知及适应策略等调查,采用感知强度公式及专家打分法分析农户气候变化感知以及所采用的适应策略,结果显示：1961—2013年湟水中游气候变化整体趋于暖干化,有84%的农户认为气候变暖,并对其生活造成了严重的影响;在不同海拔高度上的地理单元,农户对气象灾害的感知有明显差异,川水地区农户对沙尘的感知最强,浅山地区农户对虫害的感知最强,而脑山地区农户对连阴雨的感知最强;不同海拔高度的农户对适应策略的选择不同,川水地区农户主要采取“生产性+生活性+保障性”组合适应策略;浅山地区农户主要采取“生产性+生活性”组合适应策略;而脑山地区的农户则主要采取单一的“生产性”适应策略来应对气候变化所带来的影响。     

Changing places: The role of sense of place in perceptions of social,environmental and overdevelopment risks

An increasing focus on place based planning and adaptation processes brings to the fore the importance of understanding the situated experience of social and environmental change. Populations do not respond uniformly to environmental and social change, and given that consensus is needed to successfully achieve inclusive adaptation it is important to understand how and why people are more sensitive to certain changes and risks over others. Using a sense of place lens, we investigate how an individual’s relationship with their property and their town shapes their sensitivity to a range of risks. To investigate this, we conducted a survey in towns in South Africa, UK and France (n = 707) to examine the relationship between multiple dimensions of sense of place with place-based risks. We find that relationship with place matters differently for perception of social, environmental and overdevelopment risk. In particular, we find that feeling safe in place correlates with reduced perceptions of social risks but increases the likelihood of perceiving environmental risk. The role of place in risk perception is stronger at the property scale than the town scale, and it is only at the property scale that place meaning is related to risk perception. Our findings contribute to theory on the subjective experience of place-based risks and has implications for how social and environmental change can be communicated and managed.     

黄河源区干湿演变条件下的水汽输送特征研究

基于"黄河源区玛曲-若尔盖土壤温湿监测网络"自2008年观测以来至2017年的观测资料,通过分析多层土壤湿度异常百分比指数SMAPI(Soil Moisture Anomaly Percentage Index),捕捉10年来该地区的干湿演变过程,并利用再分析数据资料NECP FNL(National Centers ...