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1.
Changes in climate may significantly affect how sediment moves through watersheds into harbours and channels that are dredged for navigation or flood control. Here, we applied a hydrologic model driven by a large suite of climate change scenarios to simulate both historical and future sediment yield and transport in two large, adjacent watersheds in the Great Lakes region. Using historical dredging expenditure data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, we then developed a pair of statistical models that link sediment discharge from each river to dredging costs at the watershed outlet. Although both watersheds show similar slight decreases in streamflow and sediment yield in the near‐term, by Mid‐Century, they diverge substantially. Dredging costs are projected to change in opposite directions for the two watersheds; we estimate that future dredging costs will decline in the St. Joseph River by 8–16% by Mid‐Century but increase by 1–6% in the Maumee River. Our results show that the impacts of climate change on sediment yield and dredging may vary significantly by watershed even within a region and that agricultural practices will play a large role in determining future streamflow and sediment loads. We also show that there are large variations in responses across climate projections that cause significant uncertainty in sediment and dredging projections.  相似文献   

2.
Assessment of the impact of changes in climate and land use and land cover (LULC) on ecosystem services (ES) is important for planning regional-scale strategies for sustainability and restoration of ES. The Upper Narmada River Basin (UNRB) in peninsular India has undergone rapid LULC change due to recent agricultural expansion. The impact of future climate and LULC change on ES in the UNRB is quantified and mapped using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST 3.3.0) tool. Our results show that water yield is projected to increase under climate change (about 43% for representative concentration pathway 4.5 for 2031–2040), whereas it is projected to decrease under the LULC change scenario. Sediment export is projected to increase (by 54.53%) under LULC change for 2031–2040. Under the combined effect of climate and LULC change, both water yield and sediment export are expected to increase. Climate change has a greater impact on projected water yield than LULC change, whereas LULC has greater impact on sediment export. Spatial analysis suggests a similar trend of variation in relative difference (RD) of ES in adjacent sub-basins. The quantified changes in ES provisioning will benefit future land management, particularly for operation of the Rani Avanti Bai Sagar Reservoir downstream of the UNRB.  相似文献   

3.
The purpose of this paper is to apply “Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)” model to assess the impacts of climate change on stream discharge and sediment yield from Song Cau watershed in Northern Viet Nam. Three climate change scenarios B1, B2, and A2; representing low, medium, and high levels of greenhouse gas emission, respectively, were considered in this study. The highest changes in stream discharge (up to 11.4%) and sediment load (15.3%) can be expected in wet season in 2050s according to the high emission scenario (A2), while for the low emission scenario the corresponding changes equal to 8.8% and 12.6%. The results show that the stream discharge is likely to increase in the future during the wet season with increasing threats of sedimentation.  相似文献   

4.
ABSTRACT

This study investigated the impacts of changes in land cover and climate on runoff and sediment yield in a river basin in India. Land Change Modeler was used to derive the future land cover and its changes using the Sankey diagram approach. The future climatic parameters were derived from five general circulation models for two emission scenarios with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The land cover and climate change impacts on runoff and sediment yield were estimated using SWAT model. The results show important changes in land cover and indicate that urban and agricultural areas strongly influence the runoff and sediment yield. Among the land cover and climate change impacts, climate has more predominant (70%–95%) impact. Runoff and sediment yield are likely to decrease in both RCP scenarios in the future period. The impacts of land cover changes are more prominent on sediment yield than runoff.  相似文献   

5.
The uranium-series isotope signatures of the suspended and dissolved load of rivers have emerged as an important tool for understanding the processes of erosion and chemical weathering at the scale of a watershed. These signatures are a function of both time and weathering-induced fractionation between the different nuclides. Provided appropriate models can be developed, they can be used to constrain the residence time of river sediment. This chronometer is triggered as the bedrock starts weathering and the inferred timescale encompasses the residence time in the weathering profile, storage in temporary sediment deposits (e.g. floodplain) and transport in the river. This approach has been applied to various catchments over the past five years showing that river sediments can reside in a watershed for timescales ranging from a few hundreds of years (Iceland) to several hundreds of thousands of years (lowlands of the Amazon). Various factors control how long sediment resides in the watershed: the longest residence times are observed on stable cratons unaffected by glacial cycles (or more generally, climate variability) and human disturbance. Shorter residence times are observed in active orogens (Andes) or fast-eroding, recently glaciated catchments (Iceland). In several cases, the residence time of suspended sediments also corresponds to the time since the last major climate change. The U-series isotope composition of rivers can also be used to predict the river sediment yield assuming steady-state erosion is reached. By comparing this estimate with the modern sediment yield obtained by multi-year sediment gauging, it is clear that steady-state is seldom reached. This can be explained by climate variability and/or human disturbance. Steady-state is reached in those catchments where sediment transport is rapid (Iceland) or where the region has been unaffected by climate change and/or human disturbance. U-series are thus becoming an important tool to study the dynamics of erosion.  相似文献   

6.
Shuo Li  Ming Xu  Bo Sun 《水文研究》2014,28(22):5573-5582
The long‐term hydrological response to reforestation is critical to regional water management, especially in areas where large‐scale reforestation has been practiced. In this study, we investigated the long‐term hydrological response to reforestation in the 579 km2 basin in southeastern China through ground‐based monitoring of water yield, sedimentation, vegetation cover and climate in the basin. The vegetation dynamics were also examined by remote sensing data (MSS, Landsat and AVHRR NDVI). We found that forest cover increased 23% or 13 593 ha from 1975 to 2002. Meanwhile, annual water yield decreased 86–88 mm from 1971–1983 (i.e. pre‐reforestation) to 1984–2009 (i.e. post‐reforestation). These decreases were significant statistically according to both regression and double mass analyses. Time series analysis demonstrated that there was a clear decline in annual sediment yield and an increase in annual evapotranspiration (ET) over the period from 1971 to 2009. We concluded that reforestation could significantly reduce annual water yield and sediment yield in the basin because of the forest cover change and forest growth. This conclusion is consistent with findings from widely paired‐watershed studies and literatures published on the impact of reforestation in large watersheds. Our results also have important strategic implications and provide insight into more sustainable forest management practices for the future. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Snow is an important component of the Earth's climate system and is particularly vulnerable to global warming. It has been suggested that warmer temperatures may cause significant declines in snow water content and snow cover duration. In this study, snowfall and snowmelt were projected by means of a regional climate model that was coupled to a physically based snow model over Shasta Dam watershed to assess changes in snow water content and snow cover duration during the 21st century. This physically based snow model requires both physical data and future climate projections. These physical data include topography, soils, vegetation, and land use/land cover, which were collected from associated organizations. The future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the regional climate model under 4 emission scenarios simulated by 2 general circulation models (fifth‐generation of the ECHAM general circulation model and the third‐generation atmospheric general circulation model). The downscaled future projections were bias corrected before projecting snowfall and snowmelt processes over Shasta Dam watershed during 2010–2099. This study's results agree with those of previous studies that projected snow water equivalent is decreasing by 50–80% whereas the fraction of precipitation falling as snowfall is decreasing by 15% to 20%. The obtained projection results show that future snow water content will change in both time and space. Furthermore, the results confirm that physical data such as topography, land cover, and atmospheric–hydrologic data are instrumental in the studies on the impact of climate change on the water resources of a region.  相似文献   

8.
Sediment transport is known to have a significant impact on hydropower infrastructures and changes in sediment transport rates are important for sediment management measures and hydroelectricity production. In this study, we present how climate change may affect bedload transport in 66 high alpine catchments used by hydropower companies in the Valais, Switzerland. Future sediment yield is estimated with a runoff‐based sediment transport model for the two future 30 year time periods 2021–2050 and 2070–2099. The analysis is integrated into a modelling chain in which error‐corrected and downscaled climate scenarios generated in the framework of the ENSEMBLES project are coupled to the hydrological model PREVAH, glacier retreat and bedload transport. To calibrate the sediment transport model, we used the observed sediment volumes in water intakes and reservoirs if such data were available. The results obtained show on average a decrease of sediment yield due to the reduced runoff generation during summer, especially for the scenario period 2070–2099. A shift of the seasonal sediment transport regime with a current maximum during July and August to earlier months in the year is predicted. Projections of future sediment yield rely on the accuracy of the individual modeling chain elements. The different sources of uncertainty are discussed qualitatively. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
A computer model has been used to estimate soil loss and sediment yield from irregular field-size units of small watersheds. Input to the model includes spring data (i.e. relating to February through May) for the independent variables of the Universal Soil Loss Equation, and for factors such as surface roughness, an index of overland runoff, and proximity to the stream. Output from the model includes maps of seasonal estimates of potential soil losses, field sediment delivery ratios, and expected sediment yields. On the basis of selected erosion and sediment yield tolerances, the output information has been analysed to identify watershed areas which (1) exhibit both erosion and sediment yield problems; (2) exhibit only erosion problems; (3) exhibit only sediment yield problems; and (4) exhibit neither erosion nor sediment yield problems. The percentage of the watershed area in each category and the percentage of the watershed soil loss and sediment loads contributed by each category are also identified. Application of the procedure for planning remedial control programs for five watersheds is discussed.  相似文献   

10.
Agricultural zones are significant sediment sources, but it is crucial to identify critical source areas (CSAs) of sediment yield within these zones where best management practices (BMPs) can be applied to the best effect in reducing sediment delivery to receiving water bodies rather than the economically nonviable alternative of randomly or sweepingly implementing BMPs. A storm event of a specific magnitude and hyetograph profile may, at different times, generate a greater or lesser sediment yield. The widely used agricultural nonpoint source (AGNPS) model was used to identify CSAs for sediment losses in Southwestern Ontario's agriculture‐dominated 374‐ha Holtby watershed. A storm threshold approach was adopted to identify critical periods for higher sediment losses. An AGNPS model for the Holtby watershed was set up, calibrated, and validated for run‐off volume, peak flow rate, and sediment yield for several storms. The calibrated and validated model was run for storms of increasing return periods to identify threshold storm events that would generate sediment yield greater than an acceptable value for early and late spring, summer, and fall seasons. Finally, to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change, we shifted shorter duration summer storms into spring conditions and quantified the changes in sediment yield dynamics. A 6‐hr, 7.5‐year early spring storm would generate sediment losses exceeding the acceptable limit of 0.34 t ha?1 for the season. However, summer storms (2 hr, up to 100 years) tended to generate sediment yields below those of an identifiable threshold storm. If such shorter duration summer storms occurred in spring, the sediment yield would increase by more than fivefold. A 5‐year future storm would generate an equivalent effect of a 100‐year current spring event. The high sediment delivery to be expected will have significant implications regarding the future management of water quality of receiving waters. Appropriate placement of BMPs at CSAs will thus be needed to reduce such high sediment delivery to receiving waters.  相似文献   

11.
The hydrologic impact of climate change has been largely assessed using mostly conceptual hydrologic models. This study investigates the use of distributed hydrologic model for the assessment of the climate change impact for the Spencer Creek watershed in Southern Ontario (Canada). A coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 hydrologic model is developed to represent the complex hydrologic conditions in the Spencer Creek watershed, and later to simulate climate change impact using Canadian global climate model (CGCM 3·1) simulations. Owing to the coarse resolution of GCM data (daily GCM outputs), statistical downscaling techniques are used to generate higher resolution data (daily precipitation and temperature series). The modelling results show that the coupled model captured the snow storage well and also provided good simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) and groundwater recharge. The simulated streamflows are consistent with the observed flows at different sites within the catchment. Using a conservative climate change scenario, the downscaled GCM scenarios predicted an approximately 14–17% increase in the annual mean precipitation and 2–3 °C increase in annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures for the 2050s (i.e., 2046–2065). When the downscaled GCM scenarios were used in the coupled model, the model predicted a 1–5% annual decrease in snow storage for 2050s, approximately 1–10% increase in annual ET, and a 0·5–6% decrease in the annual groundwater recharge. These results are consistent with the downscaled temperature results. For future streamflows, the coupled model indicated an approximately 10–25% increase in annual streamflows for all sites, which is consistent with the predicted changes in precipitation. Overall, it is shown that distributed hydrologic modelling can provide useful information not only about future changes in streamflow but also changes in other key hydrologic processes such as snow storage, ET, and groundwater recharge, which can be particularly important depending on the climatic region of concern. The study results indicate that the coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 hydrologic model could be a particularly useful tool for understanding the integrated effect of climate change in complex catchment scale hydrology. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
Announcements     
ABSTRACT

Global climate variations are expected to cause serious challenges to water resources planning and management, including an increase in sea level, abrupt changes in rainfall patterns and changes in ecosystems. This study evaluates impacts of mid-century climate variability as projected by climate models in the Haw River watershed, which contributes significantly to Jordan Lake, a major source of drinking water supply in central North Carolina, USA. The watershed-based hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was successfully calibrated with very good to excellent performance. Projected precipitation and temperature information for 2040–2069 from four dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCMs) was used to force the SWAT modeling set-up of the watershed. On a long-term basis, a 38% decrease in the precipitation in early fall is expected while spring months are expected to receive 30% higher precipitation compared to the baseline condition (1980–2009). Water yield was found to increase in spring months, with a maximum of 74% increase on average. Summer months are expected to have on average 8% higher evapotranspiration (ET) than the baseline. Analysis of the change in average monthly streamflow at the watershed outlet (which leads to Lake Jordan) shows that there might be, on average, an 80% increase in streamflow in spring months (February, March, April and May), with the greatest increase (107%) in May. In general, simulation results indicated that the hydrological response of the watershed is very sensitive to the potential variation in climate (precipitation and temperature), with precipitation being one of the decisive factors in water yield increase.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Associate editor N. Verhoest  相似文献   

13.
Land use/cover (LULC) and climate change are two main factors affecting watershed hydrology. In this paper, individual and combined impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrologic processes were analysed applying the model Soil and Water Assessment Tool in a coastal Alabama watershed in USA. Temporally and spatially downscaled Global Circulation Model outputs predict a slight increase in precipitation in the study area, which is also projected to experience substantial urban growth in the future. Changes in flow frequency and volume in the 2030s (2016–2040) compared to a baseline period (1984–2008) at daily, monthly and annual time scales were explored. A redistribution of daily streamflow is projected when either climate or LULC change was considered. High flows are predicted to increase, while low flows are expected to decrease. Combined change effect results in a more noticeable and uneven distribution of daily streamflow. Monthly average streamflow and surface runoff are projected to increase in spring and winter, but especially in fall. LULC change does not have a significant effect on monthly average streamflow, but the change affects partitioning of streamflow, causing higher surface runoff and lower baseflow. The combined effect leads to a dramatic increase in monthly average streamflow with a stronger increasing trend in surface runoff and decreasing trend in baseflow. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Bracketing the uncertainty of streamflow and agricultural runoff under climate change is critical for proper future water resource management in agricultural watersheds. This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in conjunction with a Latin hypercube climate change sampling algorithm to construct a 95% confidence interval (95CI) around streamflow, sediment load, and nitrate load predictions under changes in climate for the Sacramento and San Joaquin River watersheds in California's Central Valley. The Latin hypercube algorithm sampled 2000 combinations of precipitation and temperature changes based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections from multiple General Circulation Models. Average monthly percent changes of the upper and lower 95CI limits compared to the present‐day simulation and a statistic termed the “r‐factor” (average width of the 95CI band divided by the standard deviation of the 95CI bandwidth) were used to assess watershed sensitivities. 95CI results indicate that streamflow and sediment runoff in the Sacramento River watershed are more likely to decrease under climate change compared to present‐day conditions, whereas the increase and decrease for nitrate runoff were found to be equal. For the San Joaquin River watershed, streamflow slightly decreased under climate change, whereas sediment and nitrate runoff increased compared to present‐day climate. Comparisons of watershed sensitivities indicate that the San Joaquin River watershed is more sensitive to climate changes than the Sacramento River watershed, which is largely caused by the high density of agricultural land. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Climate change characterized by increasing temperature is able to affect precipitation regime and thus surface hydrology.However,the manner in which river sediment loads respond to climate change is not well understood,and related assessment regarding the effect of climate change on sediment loads is lacking.We present a quantitative estimate of changes in sediment loads(from 1.5 Gt yr-1 pre-1990 to 0.6 Gt yr-1 from 1991-2007) in response to climate change in eight large Chinese rivers.Over the past decades,precipitation change coupled with rising temperatures has played a significant role in influencing the sediment delivery dynamics,although human activities, such as reservoir construction,water diversion,sand mining and land cover change,are still the predominant forces. Lower precipitation coupled with rising temperatures has significantly reduced sediment loads delivered into the sea in semi-arid climates(4-61%).In contrast,increasingly warmer and wetter climates in subtropical zones has yielded more sediment(0.4-11%),although the increase was offset by human impact.Our results indicate that,compared with mechanical retention by reservoirs,water reduction caused by climate change or human withdrawals has contributed more sediment reduction for the rivers with abundant sediment supply but limited transport capacity(e.g.,the Huanghe).Furthermore,our results indicate that every 1%change in precipitation has resulted in a 1.3%change in water discharge and a 2%change in sediment loads.In addition,every 1%change in water discharge caused by precipitation has led to a 1.6%change in sediment loads,but the same percentage of water discharge change caused largely by humans would only result in a 0.9%change in sediment loads.These figures can be used as a guideline for evaluating the responses of sediment loads to climate change in similar climate zones because future global warming will cause dramatic changes in water and sediment in river basins worldwide at rates previously unseen.  相似文献   

16.
Hydrological response to expected future changes in land use and climate in the Samin catchment (278 km2) in Java, Indonesia, was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. We analysed changes between the baseline period 1983–2005 and the future period 2030–2050 under both land-use change and climate change. We used the outputs of a bias-corrected regional climate model and six global climate models to include climate model uncertainty. The results show that land-use change and climate change individually will cause changes in the water balance components, but that more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, in particular for changes in annual streamflow and surface runoff. The findings of this study will be useful for water resource managers to mitigate future risks associated with land-use and climate changes in the study catchment.  相似文献   

17.
Changes in precipitation and temperature have direct effects on crop water use, water stress, crop yield, evapotranspiration, water nutrient dynamics and other indicators. This study, built on a modelling framework with the Soil and Watershed Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Raccoon River Watershed in central Iowa, a typical US Midwestern agricultural watershed, examines the watershed response to changes in meteorological inputs from an ensemble of ten global climate models under the A1B scenario. Changes in climate were directly applied to observations (the delta change method) assuming that the estimates of climate change are reliable even if the simulated current climate may be biased. The ensemble average for the mid‐century (1946–1965) predicted 0.7% increase in daily precipitation (monthly variation from ?11.3% to +19.5%) and 2.78 °C increase in average temperature over the entire watershed. These predictions were translated through a well‐calibrated SWAT modelling setup into 22% decrease in snowfall, 16% decrease in surface runoff, 18% decrease in baseflow, 8% increase in evapotranspiration and 17% decrease in total water yield. The spatial impact at the subwatershed level revealed a wide variation (but no defined trend) with decrease in water yield that ranged from 10% to 23%. Flow near the watershed outlet (Van Meter, Iowa) is expected to decline by 17% on an average annual basis with the highest impact occurring during summer months with a maximum 39% reduction in August. Changes in climate were found to have a clear and significant impact signal of decreasing streamflow at the watershed outlet with far‐reaching implication for drinking water supplies for the central Iowa communities. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
The impacts of climate change on storm runoff and erosion in Mediterranean watersheds are difficult to assess due to the expected increase in storm frequency coupled with a decrease in total rainfall and soil moisture, added to positive or negative changes to different types of vegetation cover. This report, the second part of a two‐part article, addresses this issue by analysing the sensitivity of runoff and erosion to incremental degrees of change (from ? 20 to + 20%) to storm rainfall, pre‐storm soil moisture, and vegetation cover, in two Mediterranean watersheds, using the MEFIDIS model. The main results point to the high sensitivity of storm runoff and peak runoff rates to changes in storm rainfall (2·2% per 1% change) and, to a lesser degree, to soil water content (?1·2% per 1% change). Catchment sediment yield shows a greater sensitivity than within‐watershed erosion rates to both parameters: 7·8 versus 4·0% per 1% change for storm rainfall, and ? 4·9 versus ? 2·3% per 1% change for soil water content, indicating an increase in sensitivity with spatial scale due to changes to sediment connectivity within the catchment. Runoff and erosion showed a relatively low sensitivity to changes in vegetation cover. Finally, the shallow soils in one of the catchments led to a greater sensitivity to changes in storm rainfall and soil moisture. Overall, the results indicate that decreasing soil moisture levels caused by climate change could be sufficient to offset the impact of greater storm intensity in Mediterranean watersheds. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
The response of the semi‐alluvial clay‐bed Watts Creek is assessed subject to climate change. Climate impacts are expected to have regional variability, and few studies have assessed the impacts of future climate in a small urban watershed. The 21‐km2 watershed located in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, is highly urbanized (68%) and agricultural (20%) with limited forest cover (12%). Continuous simulations were performed using the SWMHYMO lumped hydrologic modelling platform for the open water year, excluding spring freshet (April 1 to October 31). A shear stress exceedance and stream power erosion routine was added to the platform to calculate erosion potential. To account for uncertainty in the collected data, 9 different field datasets were used to calibrate the model, each leading to a distinct set of calibrated parameter values. The difference between the datasets lies in the choice of the rating curves and calibration period. The 2041–2080 precipitation outputs of the 4th version of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) ran under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 at the MacDonald Cartier International Airport were downscaled using quantile matching and then used as input to the continuous hydrologic model. For each set of calibrated parameters, a cumulative effective work index based on the reach‐averaged shear stress was calculated for Watts Creek using both the historic (1967–2007) and projected future (2041–2080) flows, using a bed material critical shear stress for entrainment of 3.7 Pa. These results suggest an increase of 75% (respectively 139%) under RCP4.5 (respectively RCP8.5) in cumulative effective work index compared with historic conditions for the average measured bed strength. The work index increase is driven by an increased occurrence of above‐threshold events and, more importantly, by the increased frequency of large events. The predicted flow regime under climate change would significantly alter the erosion potential and stability of Watts Creek.  相似文献   

20.
The Yangtze River(YR), similar to most large rivers in the world, has experienced significant changes in its depositional environment due to anthropogenic disturbances and climatic influences in recent decades. However, knowledge of how the river channel and bed deformation respond to these changes in the uppermost part of the lower YR, a 200-km-long branched channel, is limited. In the current study,historical bathymetric data collected from 1992 to 2013 and high-resolution multibeam echo sound...  相似文献   

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