Some variations of the rainfall in Mexico City from 1954 to 1988 and their statistical significance

Some characteristics of the precipitation such as the beginning and end of the rainy season, as well as their spatial and temporal distributions are studied. The study included data from 23 climatological stations located in the Federal District for the period 1954-1988. Four variables related to the beginning and end of the rainy season were defined, namely the day of the first and last event with 10 mm of accumulated precipitation and the percentage of accumulated precipitation until Julian days 150 and 275. An analysis of variance and principal components was made with these variables, establishing that rainfall in the Federal District (which includes part of Mexico City and its surrounding areas) responds homogeneously through time to the presence of mesoscale meteorological phenomena. The results indicate that precipitation was lower at the beginning and end of the study period, and higher in the middle; additionally, the rainy season starts from west to east and ends from east to west, causing a longer season in the southwest than in the northeast. The spatial distribution shows the greatest rainfall in the southwest due to the effect of the nearby mountains, and the lowest in the northeast.     

Relationship between precipitation and water-table fluctuation in a coastal dune aquifer: northeastern coast of the Buenos Aires province, Argentina

The water-table fluctuation (WTF) method is one of the most widely used means to estimate aquifer recharge. In the northeastern coast of the Buenos Aires province, Argentina, the geomorphological and climatic characteristics, as well as the presence of a shallow, homogeneous unconfined aquifer, make it possible to apply this methodology. The relationship between water-table fluctuations and precipitation in a humid climate, considering its seasonal variations, is assessed. Water tables were measured monthly between February 2008 and September 2010 in a monitoring network; rainfall data were analysed. The water table rises when the accumulated precipitation between measurements is more than 53?mm/month in the dry season and more than 97?mm/month in the rainy season. The index, relating water-table fluctuations and precipitation occurring between measurements, shows that values below 0 suggest no increase in the water reserves, whereas higher values entail an increase. In the study area, where there is a lack of historical data, finding out the relationship between water-table fluctuations and precipitation will constitute a tool for groundwater use and management, and set up an early warning system for dry periods. It could also be extrapolated to other regions with similar hydrological conditions lacking in data.     

黄河源区雨季降水与汛期径流量重建及其千年尺度下的演变特征

黄河源区年内降水集中, 洪水风险大, 重建源区雨季降水和汛期径流量对于提高径流预报预测精度及防洪防灾具有重要科学意义和应用价值。本文利用黄河源区及周边筛选的16个树轮年表, 采用嵌套主成分层次贝叶斯回归模型, 估算参数后验分布替代固定值以考虑不确定性, 重建了黄河源区过去1 160 a的雨季降水; 提出了基于年径流的分类占比回归模型, 以考虑汛期径流量与年径流量的一致性, 将黄河源区汛期径流量展延至公元159年。结果表明: ①嵌套主成分层次贝叶斯回归模型的误差缩减值(E_R)和有效系数(E_C)评价指标值均显著高于0, 分类占比回归模型的E_R和E_C值最高分别达0.90和0.88, 重建结果可靠性较高; ②即使在千年尺度下, 1979—1985年亦是较为不寻常的汛期高径流量时期。     

利用雨雪分寸重建福州前汛期雨季起始日期的方法研究

阐述清代福州雨雪分寸记录的特点;并利用福州1961-2010年器测降水记录,分析福州3～7月降水特征,提出辨识福州前汛期雨季开始日期的指标。在此基础上,根据清代福州雨雪分寸记录的内容和形式,分类构建利用雨雪分寸辨识福州前汛期雨季起始日期的方法;依据日降雨分寸、降雨日期和强度、时段的降水日期（或时段起止日期）及降水日（次...     

开发四川盆地"红层"地下水,解决人畜饮水问题

四川盆地红层区由于季节性降水差异，时常发生春旱和伏旱，笔者根据数十年对区内水文地质条件的研究，提出了，充分利用已有小型和微型水利工程(小水库、堰塘、栏水坝等)栏蓄雨季降水，把“今天的水蓄起来明天用”；针对农家分散居住特点，打小浅井(10m左右)解决旱季人畜饮用水；在场镇居民聚居区可用中江改水经验，打机井，建水厂，以集中供水。在财力和技术上需要政府和有关部门大力支持。     

江淮流域汛期降水时空分布特征及其环流背景初步分析

应用对应分析等方法分析了江淮流域汛期(5月～9月)降水的时空分布特征,在此基础上按降水旬际变化特征将论域初划为4个区域,最后讨论了各降水区降水异常的500hPa低阶流场背景.     

大亚湾花岗岩某钻孔雨季水位持续走高原因探析

作为弱含水层或找水贫困区的花岗岩体,其地下水位变化受裂隙连通性和大气降水影响,出现波动是正常现象。然而在雨季钻孔水位一周内出现近40 m暴涨,且基本维持在高水位持续约3个月后,又跌落回正常水位波动,似乎不常见。以大亚湾中微子试验隧道工程地质勘察钻孔ZK3为例,连续开展两年水位动态观测,监测到上述水位剧烈涨落现象。结合该区水文地质条件、地质构造和岩体结构、降雨量日变化,分析了产生这一奇特现象的原因。很多浅表缓倾节理和构造成因陡倾节理组合成多个不同方向和长度的结构面网络,是水不规则运移和局部储存的控制性结构,雨季开始和结束时不同深度裂隙连通导水差别很大应是水位突变的重要原因。即雨季地表径流很大部分是由于下部裂隙被水充满和饱和,地表产流率高,而旱季深部水腾空或不饱和,浅表水才容易向深部渗透回落。初步提出的水和可能的密闭气体联合作用导致雨季水位高涨突变,或许是需要关注的花岗岩裂隙水的一个重要特征。     

Investigating local variation in groundwater recharge along a topographic gradient, Walnut Creek, Iowa, USA

Groundwater recharge is an important component to hydrologic studies but is known to vary considerably across the landscape. The purpose of this study was to examine 4 years of water-level behavior in a transect of four water-table wells installed at Walnut Creek, Iowa, USA to evaluate how groundwater recharge varied along a topographic gradient. The amount of daily water-table rise (WTR) in the wells was summed at monthly and annual scales and estimates of specific yield (Sy) were used to convert the WTR to recharge. At the floodplain site, Sy was estimated from the ratio of WTR to total rainfall and in the uplands was based on the ratio of baseflow to WTR. In the floodplain, where the water table is shallow, recharge occurred throughout the year whenever precipitation occurred. In upland areas where the water table was deeper, WTR occurred in a stepped fashion and varied by season. Results indicated that the greatest amount of water-table rise over the 4-year period was observed in the floodplain (379 mm), followed by the upland (211 mm) and sideslopes (122 mm). Incorporating spatial variability in recharge in a watershed will improve groundwater resource evaluation and flow and transport modeling.     

哈尼梯田麻栗寨河流域雨季大气降水氢氧同位素特征及影响因素

以红河哈尼梯田文化景观遗产核心区麻栗寨河流域的雨季大气降水为研究对象,对2014年雨季典型月7月的氢氧同位素组成进行了分析,拟合出大气瞬时降水线方程,并与邻近地区及全国、全球降水线方程进行对比,分析温度、湿度、降水量等气象参数和海拔对氢氧稳定同位素的影响,并初步判断该区的水汽来源。结果表明：（1）研究区雨季大气降水δ¹⁸O值变化范围大,与邻近的昆明、贵阳、成都地区相比,贫化明显;（2）大气降水线方程为δD=7.59δ¹⁸O+3.31,其斜率和截距较小,说明研究区雨季降水量大且蒸发强烈、降水的水汽来源非单一化,除受印度洋、孟加拉湾的变热性热带海洋气团的影响,还受研究区地表水体的二次蒸发影响;（3）研究区降水稳定同位素特征显示不但存在明显的降水量效应,也存在温度效应和海拔效应,但各因素是综合作用的,主导因素不明显。     

黄土高原区域尺度土壤干燥化的空间和季节分布特征

为掌握黄土高原土壤干燥化程度的空间分布特征,定量评价雨季前、后土壤干燥化程度,于2013年在黄土高原南北方向布设一条样带（N=86）,获取雨季前、后0~5 m剖面土壤含水量。采用地统计学方法分析了土壤干燥化指数的空间分布规律及变异特征。结果表明:在黄土高原地区,土壤干燥化程度存在明显的纬度地带性,且雨季前土壤干燥化指数的空间变异程度高于雨季后;经过雨季降水的补给,土壤干层在一定程度上得到修复,且中部地区的修复效果明显优于南部及北部地区;土壤干燥化指数剖面分布特征在雨季前、后的差异主要表现在浅层0~2.3 m土层,这主要归因于降水对浅层土壤水分的补给。     

Prediction of seasonal water-table fluctuations in La Pampa and Buenos Aires, Argentina

The fluctuation of the water table east of La Pampa province and northwest of Buenos Aires province, Argentina, influences agricultural production in the region because it is closely related to the alternation of dry and wet periods. Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies have been used as predictors to forecast atmospheric variables in different regions of the world. The objective of this work is to present a simple model to forecast seasonal rainfall using SST distribution in the Pacific Ocean as a predictor. Once the relationship between precipitation and water-table fluctuations was established, a methodology for the prediction of water-table fluctuations was developed. A good agreement between observed and predicted water-table fluctuations was found when estimating water-table fluctuations in the summer and autumn seasons. Electronic Publication     

Effects of climate change on groundwater resources at Shelter Island, New York State, USA

Rising sea levels due to climate change are expected to negatively impact the fresh-water resources of small islands. The effects of climate change on Shelter Island, New York State (USA), a small sandy island, were investigated using a variable-density transient groundwater flow model. Predictions for changes in precipitation and sea-level rise over the next century from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 report were used to create two future climate scenarios. In the scenario most favorable to fresh groundwater retention, consisting of a 15% precipitation increase and 0.18-m sea-level rise, the result was a 23-m seaward movement of the fresh-water/salt-water interface, a 0.27-m water-table rise, and a 3% increase in the fresh-water lens volume. In the scenario supposedly least favorable to groundwater retention, consisting of a 2% precipitation decrease and 0.61-m sea-level rise, the result was a 16-m landward movement of the fresh-water/salt-water interface, a 0.59-m water-table rise, and a 1% increase in lens volume. The unexpected groundwater-volume increase under unfavorable climate change conditions was best explained by a clay layer under the island that restricts the maximum depth of the aquifer and allows for an increase in fresh-water lens volume when the water table rises.     

表层岩溶带调蓄系数定量计算--以湘西洛塔赵家湾为例

本文以湖南洛塔赵家湾表层岩溶系统为例,综合利用水位、降雨量、蒸发量及泉流量等长观资料,分别对不同降雨特征下的表层岩溶带调蓄系数进行了定量计算,并对影响表层岩溶带调蓄能力的因素进行了分析。计算得到丰水期赵家湾表层岩溶带调蓄系数为0 14～0 2 8,明显小于枯水期调蓄系数0 44 ;但丰水期久旱后表层岩溶带的调蓄能力接近于枯水期;在丰水期,场雨和连续降雨时的调蓄能力比间歇降雨时的小近1倍。实例计算表明:赵家湾表层岩溶带具有一定的调蓄能力,其地下迳流滞后于降雨至少3d ,调蓄系数确实可以用来定量评价表层岩溶带的调蓄能力。     

西藏波密冰川覆盖区大型河流与断裂带地下水转化关系

川藏铁路波密段穿越冰川覆盖区,分布多条与断裂复合发育的大型河流,水量丰富,可与断裂共同构成构造高压涌水突泥灾害风险源。本文通过多期测流和对大气降水、冰川、河流和地下水水化学、同位素特征分析,研究了大型河流的流量变化特征和地表水与断裂带裂隙水的转化关系。结果表明:西藏波密冰川覆盖区河水主要接受冰川融水和大气降水补给。雨季河水的δ18O和δD值小于旱季,说明河水雨季和旱季的补给源结构不同。旱季气温低,以大气降水补给为主;雨季冰川融水量陡增,为主要补给源。断裂影响范围内的古乡沟、比通曲和龙冲曲河水流量较大,均超过4×104 m3/d,但年内流量波动幅度小于非断裂带影响范围的河流。河流可渗漏补给断裂带水。浅层循环断裂带水年龄5～10 a,中深层断裂带水年龄超过4000 a,水岩作用较充分。非断裂带影响范围的河流与基岩风化裂隙水存在较密切的水力联系和较频繁的相互转化。研究成果可为青藏高原东部冰川覆盖区铁路隧道高压涌水突泥灾害的早期识别和灾害防范措施制定提供参考。     

我国西南地区降水中过量氘指示水汽来源

中d小,受沿途降水冲刷作用的影响,降水中稳定同位素比率较低;在旱季,受大陆性气团的影响,我国西南地区降水的水汽主要来源于西风带的输送和内陆再蒸发水汽的补给,空气湿度小,降水中稳定同位素比率和d较大.     

Towards hydrological triggering mechanisms of large deep-seated landslides

It is a widely accepted idea that hydrologically triggered deep-seated landslides are initiated by an increase in pore-water pressure on potential slip surface induced by rising groundwater level after prolonged period of intense rainfall although the process is not fully understood. In order to contribute to better understanding, the rainfall–groundwater relationships, hydrogeological monitoring and repeated geoelectrical imaging were carried out from March 2007 to April 2011 in large deep-seated landslide near ?ubietová (Western Carpathians) catastrophically reactivated at the end of February 1977. Based on our observations, groundwater level (GWL) response to precipitation differs considerably with respect to both overall hydrological conditions and GWL mean depth. While the rate of GWL increase up to 25 cm/day were measured after some rainfall events during wet periods, noticeably lower recharge rate (up to 1–2 cm/day) and delayed GWL response to rainfall (usually from 2 weeks to 2–4 months) were observed at the beginning of the wet season after considerable depression of GWLs due to previous effective rainfall deficit. Likewise, slow GWL fluctuations without short-term oscillations are typical for deeper GWLs. Thus, long-term (several seasons to several years) hydrological conditions affect markedly groundwater response to rainfall events in the studied landslide and can be crucial for its behaviour. Comparison of hydrological conditions characterising the analysed period with those that accompanied the landslide reactivation in 1977 allow us to assume that slightly above-average rainy season following the prolonged wet period can be far more responsible for movement acceleration (and possibly failure initiation) in deep landslides than the isolated season of extreme precipitation following a longer dry period. This is true especially for landslides in regions with significant seasonal temperature changes where potential effective precipitation (PEP), calculated as excess of precipitation (P) over potential evapotranspiration (PET), may be efficiently used for estimation of slope saturation condition.     

Seasonal variations of major ions in fresh snow at Baishui Glacier No. 1, Yulong Mountain, China

This study presented a study of seasonal variations of major ion concentrations in fresh snow on Baishui Glacier No. 1, the largest glacier on Yulong Mountain, China. Fresh snow samples at Baishui Glacier No. 1 were collected from November 2008 to October 2009 for chemical data analysis. The results showed that the neutralizing effect of terrestrial source aerosols raised the pH value of fresh snow. The conductivity of fresh snow was much higher in dry season than that in rainy season. It was evident that the concentration of inorganic ions was generally higher in the dry season than that in rainy season, and the highest values occurred in the pre-monsoon period (April–May). The ions of fresh snow mainly came from terrestrial under the influence of west wind circulation and the Plateau monsoon in dry seasons, and had much complex sources in rainy season under the control of southeast and southwest monsoons. Both wind speed and precipitation had potential effects on ion concentration and composition of fresh snow as well. Moreover, principal component analysis showed that fresh snow ions were mainly from local lithology in dry season and from oceans in rainy season.     

Temporal stability of soil water storage and its influencing factors on a forestland hillslope during the rainy season in China’s Loess Plateau

Large-scale vegetation restoration in China’s Loess Plateau has been initiated by the central government to control soil and water losses since 1999. Knowledge of the spatio-temporal distribution of soil water storage (SWS) is critical to fully understand hydrological and ecological processes. This study analysed the temporal stability of the SWS pattern during the rainy season on a hillslope covered with Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.). The soil water content in eight soil layers was obtained at 21 locations during the rainy season in 2014 and 2015. The results showed that the SWS at the 21 locations followed a normal distribution, which indicated moderate variability with the coefficients of variation ranging from 14 to 33%. The mean SWS was lowest in the middle slope. The spatial pattern of SWS displayed strong temporal stability, and the Spearman correlation coefficient ranged from 0.42 to 0.99 (p < 0.05). There were significant differences in the temporal stability of SWS among different soil layers (p < 0.01). The spatial patterns of SWS distribution showed small differences in different periods. The best representative locations of SWS were found at different soil depths. The maximum RMSE and MAE at 0–1.6 m soil depth for the rainy season were 4.27 and 3.54 mm, respectively. The best representative locations determined during a short period (13 days) can be used to estimate the mean SWS well for the same rainy season, but not for the next rainy season. Samples of SWS collected over a fortnight during the rainy season were able to capture the spatial patterns of soil moisture. Roots were the main factor affecting the temporal stability of SWS. Rainfall increased the temporal stability of the soil water distribution pattern. In conclusion, the SWS during the rainy season had a strong temporal stability on the forestland hillslope.     

中国大陆降水时空变异规律——I.气候学特征

为系统了解大尺度降水气候特征,利用2 300多个国家级气象站逐日观测资料,分析了中国大陆1956—2013年多年平均降水的空间分布和季节性变化规律。主要新认识有:① 暴雨量、暴雨日数和暴雨强度最高的站点在华南沿海,而小雨量、小雨日数最多的站点主要在江南内陆山区、丘陵;东部季风区山地、丘陵多出现低强度降水,平原和沿海易出现高强度降水;② 四季降水量均由西北内陆向东南沿海递增,南方秋季降水量明显小于春季,但华西和江南沿海秋季降水量较多,冬季降水在东南丘陵出现高值中心;③ 珠江和东南诸河流域降水量年内存在2个峰值,其中珠江流域有6月主峰值和8月次峰值,东南诸河流域主峰在6月中下旬,次峰在8月末,长江流域总体表现为单峰型,出现在6月下旬和7月初,西南诸河流域和北方所有流域降水均表现为夏季单峰型;④ 南方各大河流域从2月末到6月中下旬陆续进入雨季,北方各大河流域进入雨季时间集中在6月末、7月初;南、北方雨季结束时间比雨季开始时间集中,从南到北进入雨季时间持续120 d以上,而从北到南退出雨季时间则仅持续不到45 d;⑤ 丰雨期的持续时间,珠江流域从5月初到9月上旬后期,东南诸河从5月上旬到7月上旬,8月末到9月初再度短暂出现,长江流域从6月中下旬到7月中旬,西南诸河从7月中旬到 8月下旬,淮河流域从7月上旬至7月底、8月初,辽河流域在8月初出现极短丰雨期;⑥ 降水年际变异性最高的站点在青藏高原西南、塔里木盆地、阿拉善高原、华北平原北部和汾河谷地,海河流域年降水具有最大的变异系数。     

Modelling of longterm surface moisture and monitoring vegetation response by satellite in semi-arid Botswana

A daily surface soil moisture model described and tested previously with data from the Phoenix, AR (USA) area, has been applied now to climate data collected in semi-arid Botswana over a multi-year period. The physically based model was calibrated with observed surface moisture data from one growing season and validated with data from another. Good overall agreement (r² = .89) was found between the observed and modelled data. The seasonal variability of precipitation in this region is reflected in the simulated daily surface moisture. The response of the natural savanna vegetation as observed from monthly composites of satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is also monitored for the same period. It is seen that the NDVI peaks at different times during the rainy season from one year to the next, according not only to the total seasonal precipitation, but its temporal distribution as well. It is also seen that there is a delay in intraseasonal vegetation response. While the NDVI is poorly correlated with the current month's average soil moisture, a distinct relationship with the previous month's average soil moisture was found.