Changes in water chemistry along the newly formed High Arctic fluvial–lacustrine system of the Brattegg Valley (SW Spitsbergen,Svalbard)

Changes in water chemistry along the High Arctic fluvial–lacustrine system located in Wedel Jarlsberg Land in the SW Spitsbergen (Svalbard) were investigated during the summer season of 2010 and 2011. The newly formed river–lake system consists of three lakes connected with the Brattegg River. The first bathymetric measurements of these lakes were made by the authors in 2010. The Brattegg River catchment represents a partly glaciered Arctic water system. The studied lakes are characterized by low mineralization and temperature of water. The value of the electrolytic conductivity (EC) ranges from 30.2 to 50.5 μS cm^?1 and the temperature of surface water from 1.5 to 7.8 °C. The temperature increase takes place downstream starting from Upper Lake to the outflow from Myrktjørna Lake. The waters of lakes have higher temperatures than the stream. The predominant ions are HCO₃ ^? (up to 16.5 mg L^?1), Cl^? (6.66–8.53 mg L^?1), Ca²⁺ (2.40–4.45 mg L^?1) and Na⁺ (2.65–3.36 mg L^?1). The highest values of ammonium and DOC found in the lowest Myrktjørna Lake seem to be related to the presence of aquatic organisms and also birds. From the group of 10 analyzed microelements, increased concentrations of aluminum, up to almost 500 μg L^?1, are present in the lakes’ water. Water isotopic composition ranges for δ¹⁸O and δ²H, from ?10.6 to ?10.9‰ and from ?70.8 to ?72.3‰, respectively. The vertical zonality of lake waters is manifested in a decrease in the temperature and increase in EC and chemical elements concentrations.     

Assessment of land use/land cover dynamics vis-à-vis hydrometeorological variability in Wular Lake environs Kashmir Valley,India using multitemporal satellite data

Wular Lake, one of the largest freshwater lakes of Jhelum River Basin, is showing signs of deterioration due to the anthropogenic impact and changes in the land use/land cover (LULC) and hydrometeorological climate of the region. The present study investigated the impacts of temporal changes in LULC and meteorological and hydrological parameters to evaluate the current status of Wular Lake environs using multisensor, multitemporal satellite and observatory data. Satellite images acquired for the years 1992, 2001, 2005, and 2008 were used for determining changes in the LULC in a buffer area of 5 km² around the Wular Lake. LULC mapping and change analysis using the visual interpretation technique indicated significant changes around the Wular Lake during the last two decades. Reduction in lake area from 24 km² in 1992 to 9 km² in 2008 (?62.5 %) affected marshy lands, the habitat of migratory birds, which also exhibited drastic reduction from 85 km² in 1992 to 5 km² in 2008 (?94.117 %). Marked development of settlements (642.85 %) in the peripheral area of the Wular Lake adversely affected its varied aquatic flora and fauna. Change in climatic conditions, to a certain extent, is also responsible for the decrease in water level and water spread of the lake as witnessed by decreased discharge in major tributaries (Erin and Madhumati) draining into the Wular Lake.     

A Modeling Study of the Impacts of Mississippi River Diversion and Sea-Level Rise on Water Quality of a Deltaic Estuary

Freshwater and sediment management in estuaries affects water quality, particularly in deltaic estuaries. Furthermore, climate change-induced sea-level rise (SLR) and land subsidence also affect estuarine water quality by changing salinity, circulation, stratification, sedimentation, erosion, residence time, and other physical and ecological processes. However, little is known about how the magnitudes and spatial and temporal patterns in estuarine water quality variables will change in response to freshwater and sediment management in the context of future SLR. In this study, we applied the Delft3D model that couples hydrodynamics and water quality processes to examine the spatial and temporal variations of salinity, total suspended solids, and chlorophyll-α concentration in response to small (142 m³ s^?1) and large (7080 m³ s^?1) Mississippi River (MR) diversions under low (0.38 m) and high (1.44 m) relative SLR (RSLR = eustatic SLR + subsidence) scenarios in the Breton Sound Estuary, Louisiana, USA. The hydrodynamics and water quality model were calibrated and validated via field observations at multiple stations across the estuary. Model results indicate that the large MR diversion would significantly affect the magnitude and spatial and temporal patterns of the studied water quality variables across the entire estuary, whereas the small diversion tends to influence water quality only in small areas near the diversion. RSLR would also play a significant role on the spatial heterogeneity in estuary water quality by acting as an opposite force to river diversions; however, RSLR plays a greater role than the small-scale diversion on the magnitude and spatial pattern of the water quality parameters in this deltaic estuary.     

Geochemical,isotopic and hydrological mass balance approaches to constrain the lake water–groundwater interaction in Dal Lake,Kashmir Valley

It is important to have qualitative as well as quantitative understanding of the hydraulic exchange between lake and groundwater for effective water resource management. Dal, a famous urban fresh water lake, plays a fundamental role in social, cultural and economic dynamics of the Kashmir Valley. In this paper geochemical, isotopic and hydrological mass balance approaches are used to constrain the lake water–groundwater interaction of Dal Lake and to identify the sources of lake water. Water samples of precipitation (n = 27), lake water (n = 18) and groundwater (n = 32) were collected across the lake and its catchment for the analysis of δ¹⁸O and δ²H. A total of 444 lake water samples and 440 groundwater samples (springs, tube wells and dug wells) were collected for the analysis of Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, HCO₃ ^?, SO₄ ^2?, Cl^?, NO₃ ^?, Na⁺ and K⁺. Water table and lake water level were monitored at 40 observation locations in the catchment. Water table map including pH and EC values corroborate and verify the gaining nature of the Dal Lake. Stable isotopes of lake water in Boddal and Gagribal basins showed more deviation from the global meteoric water line than Hazratbal and Nigeen basins, indicating the evaporation of lake water. The isotopic and geochemical mass balance suggested that groundwater contributes a significant proportion (23–40%) to Dal Lake. The estimated average groundwater contribution to Dal Lake ranged from 31.2 × 10³ to 674 × 10³ m³ day^?1 with an average of 276 × 10³ m³ day^?1. The study will be useful to delineate the possible sources of nutrients and pollutants entering the lake and for the management of lake water resources for sustainable development.     

Future climate change impact evaluation on hydrologic processes in the Bharalu and Basistha basins using SWAT model

Urbanisation and climate change can have adverse effects on the streamflow and water balance components in river basins. This study focuses on the understanding of different hydrologic responses to climate change between urban and rural basins. The comprehensive semi-distributed hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate how the streamflow and water balance components vary under future climate change on Bharalu (urban basin) and Basistha (rural basin) River basins near the Brahmaputra River in India based on precipitation, temperature and geospatial data. Based on data collected in 1990–2012, it is found that 98.78% of the water yield generated for the urban Bharalu River basin is by surface runoff, comparing to 75% of that for the rural Basistha basin. Comparison of various hydrologic processes (e.g. precipitation, discharge, water yield, surface runoff, actual evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration) based on predicted climate change scenarios is evaluated. The urban Bharalu basin shows a decrease in streamflow, water yield, surface runoff, actual evapotranspiration in contrast to the rural Basistha basin, for the 2050s and 2090s decades. The average annual discharge will increase a maximum 1.43 and 2.20 m³/s from the base period for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) such as 2.6 and 8.5 pathways in Basistha River and it will decrease a maximum 0.67 and 0.46 m³/s for Bharalu River, respectively. This paper also discusses the influence of sensitive parameters on hydrologic processes, future issues and challenges in the rural and urban basins.     

Groundwater sustainability and groundwater/surface-water interaction in arid Dunhuang Basin,northwest China

The Dunhuang Basin, a typical inland basin in northwestern China, suffers a net loss of groundwater and the occasional disappearance of the Crescent Lake. Within this region, the groundwater/surface-water interactions are important for the sustainability of the groundwater resources. A three-dimensional transient groundwater flow model was established and calibrated using MODFLOW 2000, which was used to predict changes to these interactions once a water diversion project is completed. The simulated results indicate that introducing water from outside of the basin into the Shule and Danghe rivers could reverse the negative groundwater balance in the Basin. River-water/groundwater interactions control the groundwater hydrology, where river leakage to the groundwater in the Basin will increase from 3,114?×?10⁴ m³/year in 2017 to 11,875?×?10⁴ m³/year in 2021, and to 17,039?×?10⁴ m³/year in 2036. In comparison, groundwater discharge to the rivers will decrease from 3277?×?10⁴ m³/year in 2017 to 1857?×?10⁴ m³/year in 2021, and to 510?×?10⁴ m³/year by 2036; thus, the hydrology will switch from groundwater discharge to groundwater recharge after implementing the water diversion project. The simulation indicates that the increased net river infiltration due to the water diversion project will raise the water table and then effectively increasing the water level of the Crescent Lake, as the lake level is contiguous with the water table. However, the regional phreatic evaporation will be enhanced, which may intensify soil salinization in the Dunhuang Basin. These results can guide the water allocation scheme for the water diversion project to alleviate groundwater depletion and mitigate geo-environmental problem.     

Interactions of artificial lakes with groundwater applying an integrated MODFLOW solution

Artificial lakes (reservoirs) are regulated water bodies with large stage fluctuations and different interactions with groundwater compared with natural lakes. A novel modelling study characterizing the dynamics of these interactions is presented for artificial Lake Turawa, Poland. The integrated surface-water/groundwater MODFLOW-NWT transient model, applying SFR7, UZF1 and LAK7 packages to account for variably-saturated flow and temporally variable lake area extent and volume, was calibrated throughout 5 years (1-year warm-up, 4-year simulation), applying daily lake stages, heads and discharges as control variables. The water budget results showed that, in contrast to natural lakes, the reservoir interactions with groundwater were primarily dependent on the balance between lake inflow and regulated outflow, while influences of precipitation and evapotranspiration played secondary roles. Also, the spatio-temporal lakebed-seepage pattern was different compared with natural lakes. The large and fast-changing stages had large influence on lakebed-seepage and water table depth and also influenced groundwater evapotranspiration and groundwater exfiltration, as their maxima coincided not with rainfall peaks but with highest stages. The mean lakebed-seepage ranged from ~0.6 mm day^?1 during lowest stages (lake-water gain) to ~1.0 mm day^?1 during highest stages (lake-water loss) with largest losses up to 4.6 mm day^?1 in the peripheral zone. The lakebed-seepage of this study was generally low because of low lakebed leakance (0.0007–0.0015 day^?1) and prevailing upward regional groundwater flow moderating it. This study discloses the complexity of artificial lake interactions with groundwater, while the proposed front-line modelling methodology can be applied to any reservoir, and also to natural lake interactions with groundwater.     

Simulating climate change impact on soil carbon sequestration in agro-ecosystem of mid-Himalayan landscape using CENTURY model

Soils play significant roles in global carbon cycle. The increase in atmospheric CO₂ due to climate change may have a significant impact on both soil organic carbon storage and management practices to sequester organic carbon in agricultural areas. The aim of the study was to simulate climate change impact on soil carbon sequestration using CENTURY model. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to downscale the climate variables (temperature and rainfall) under two scenarios A2 and B2 for three periods: 2020 (2011–2040), 2050 (2041–2070) and 2080 (2071–2099). Downscaling was better in case of temperature than precipitation, which was evident from coefficient of correlation for temperature (r ² = 0.91–0.99) and precipitation (r ² = 0.71–0.80). Downscaling of climate data revealed that the temperature may increase for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 periods, whereas precipitation may increase till 2020 and then it may reduce in 2050 and 2080 as compared to 2020 in the study area. For CENTURY model, the input parameters were obtained through soil sampling and interviewing the farmers as well, whereas the climatic variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation) were taken from the SDSM output. The historical data of soils were collected from the literature, and six agricultural sites were selected for estimating soil carbon sequestration. After soil sampling of the same sites, it was found that the organic carbon had increased two times than historical data might be due to the addition of high organic matter in the form of farm yard manure. Therefore, the model was calibrated, considering more organic carbon in the area, and was validated using random points in the study area. Determination coefficient (r ² = 0.95) and RMSE (538 g c/m²) were computed to assess the accuracy of the model. The organic carbon was predicted from 2011 to 2099 and was compared with the 2011 predicted data. The study revealed that the amount of soil organic carbon in Bhaitan, Kanatal, Kotdwar, Malas, Pata and Thangdhar sites may reduce by 11.6, 15.8, 17.19, 13.54, 19.2 and 12.7%, respectively, for A2 scenario and by 9.62, 15.6, 15.72, 11.45, 16.96 and 13.36% for B2 scenario up to 2099. The study provides comprehensive possible future scenarios of soil carbon sequestration in the mid-Himalaya for scientists and policy makers.     

The streamflow trend in Tangwang River basin in northeast China and its difference response to climate and land use change in sub-basins

In this study, the hydro-climatic trends (1964–2006) of Tangwang River basin (TRB) were examined using the Kendall’s test. Moreover, the impacts of climate variability and land use change on streamflow in each sub-basin were assessed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) model. The results indicated that annual mean flow and peak flow showed insignificant decreasing trends (?0.14 m³ s^?1 year^?1, 1 %; ?8.67 m³ s^?1 year^?1, 40 %), while annual low flow exhibited a slightly increasing trend (0.02 m³ s^?1 year^?1, 11 %). Correspondingly, the annual precipitation for the entire basin decreased by 0.02 mm year^?2, while the annual means of daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased significantly by 0.07, 0.10 and 0.02 °C year^?1, respectively. On the other hand, with the implementation of “Natural Forest Protection Project” and “Grain for Green Project”, the forests in TRB totally increased by 744.5 km² (4.00 %) from 1980 to 2000. Meanwhile, the grasslands and the farmlands decreased by 378.0 km² (?1.98 %) and 311.9 km² (?1.63 %), respectively. Overall, land use changes played a more important role for the streamflow reduction than climate change for SUB1, SUB2 and SUB3, in which the primary conversions were from grassland, farmland and bare land to forests. Conversely, in SUB4, the influence of climate variability was predominant. The results obtained could be a reference for water resources planning and management under changing environment.     

Assessment of soil losses and siltation of the K’sob hydrological system (semiarid area—East Algeria)

Soil losses and siltation of the hydrological system (watershed–dam) of K’sob were obtained using direct and indirect methods. The Wadi K’sob watershed of 1,484 km², average slope of 0.14, and average elevation of 1,060 m is located in a semiarid climate. The average annual rainfall is 341 mm and the mean annual water discharge is 0.89 m³/s. Data from the Medjez gauging station located 6 km upstream of the dam, are the daily liquid flow and instantaneous concentrations of suspended sediments. Over a time period from 1973 to 2010, the relationship between water and sediment discharges is quantified by the equation: Q _s?=?5.6 Q ^1.31. Thus, in view of the availability data on a daily scale, the assessment of soil erodibility of the K’sob watershed was used to estimate specific soil losses of 203 t?km^?2?year^?1or 301,000 t eroded annually from the K’sob basin. The bathymetric measurements of the sediment volumes deposited in the K’sob dam, has quantified the annual siltation of 0.8 hm³, corresponding to an average erodibility of the K’sob watershed of 809 t?km^?2?year^?1. However, when adding the volume of sediment removed by the dredging operation and de-silting by the valves during heavy floods, the value of soil losses is 2,780 t?km^?2?year^?1. The indirect assessment of soil erodibility of the basin was obtained by applying two models: the quantitative geomorphological analysis (QGA) and PISA model (prediction of silting in the artificial reservoirs, in Italian: Previsioni dell’Interimento nei Serbatoi Artificiali) using physical and climatic factors in the watershed. The obtained results by QGA method underestimate specific soil losses of 524 t?km^?2?year^?1. The PISA model gives a value of 2,915 t?km^?2?year^?1, which is close to the value obtained by bathymetric measurements. This study concludes that PISA model is most suitable to estimate soil loss and siltation of the K’sob hydrological system.     

Soil salinization and critical shallow groundwater depth under saline irrigation condition in a Saharan irrigated land

In the arid irrigated lands, understanding the impact of shallow groundwater fluctuation on soil salinization has become crucial. Thus, investigation of the possible options for maintaining the groundwater depth for improving land productivity is of great importance. In this study, under saline irrigation condition, the effects of shallow groundwater depth on water and salt dynamics in the root-zone of date palms were analyzed through a particular field and modeling (SWAP) investigation in a Tunisian Saharan oasis (Dergine Oasis). The model was calibrated and validated against the measured soil water content through the date palm root-zone. The good agreement between measured and estimated soil water content demonstrated that the SWAP model is an effective tool to accurately simulate the water and salt dynamics in the root-zone of date palm. Multiple groundwater depth scenarios were performed, using the calibrated SWAP model, to achieve the optimal groundwater depth. The simulation results revealed that the shallow groundwater with a depth of ~80 cm coupled with frequent irrigation (20 days interval) during the summer season is the best practice to maintain the adequate soil water content (>0.035 (cm³ cm^?3) and safe salinity level (<4 dS m^?1) in the root-zone layer. The results of field investigation and numerical simulation in the present study can lead to a better management of lands with shallow water table in the Saharan irrigated areas.     

Climate and environmental changes over the past 150 years inferred from the sediments of Chaiwopu Lake, central Tianshan Mountains, northwest China

We used a 55-cm sediment core from shallow Chaiwopu Lake in the central Tianshan Mountains of Xinjiang, northwest China, to investigate climate and environmental changes in this arid region over the past ~150 years. The core was dated using ¹³⁷Cs. We compared temporal changes in several sediment variables with recent meteorological and tree-ring records. Organic matter had a positive correlation with the Palmer Drought Severity Index in the central Tianshan Mountains, and the δ¹³C of organic matter had a positive correlation with regional temperature. We applied constrained incremental sum-of-squares cluster analysis to element concentrations in the core and identified three distinct zones: (1) 55–46 cm, ~1860–1910, (2) 46–26 cm, ~1910–1952, and (3) 26–0 cm, 1952–present. Between 1880 and 1910 AD, following the Little Ice Age (LIA), the sediment environment was relatively stable, climate was cold and dry, and the lake water displayed high salinity, in contrast to conditions during the LIA. During the LIA, westerlies carried more water vapor into Central Asia when the North Atlantic Oscillation was in a negative phase, and encountered the enhanced Siberia High, which probably led to increased precipitation. In the period 1910–1950 AD, the lake was shallow and the regional climate was unstable, with high temperatures and humidity. In the last ~15–20 years, human activities caused an increase in sediment magnetic susceptibility, and heavy metal and total phosphorus concentrations in the sediment were substantially enriched. Mean annual temperature displays a warming trend over the past 50 years, and the lowest temperature was observed in the 1950s. There has been an increase in annual total precipitation since the 1990s. The combined influences of climate and human activity on the lake environment during this period were faithfully recorded in sediments of Chaiwopu Lake. This study provides a scientific basis for environmental management and protection.     

Study on runoff simulation of the upstream of Minjiang River under future climate change scenarios

Climate change is one of the main factors that affect runoff changes. In the upstream of Minjiang River, the temperature increased significantly in the last 50 years, while the precipitation decreased on the contrary. In order to analyze the effect of climate change on site runoff, watershed runoff depth and evaporation, nine climate scenarios are assumed based on rainfall and temperature indicators. A SWAT model of Minjiang River is constructed, and runoff simulation is carried out with the nine scenarios. The results show that if precipitation increases or decreases 20 %, the change rate of runoff depth will increase or decrease 28–32 %; if temperature increases or decreases 2 °C, the change rate of runoff depth will decrease or increase 1–6 %; if temperature increases or decreases 2 °C, the change rate of the potential evaporation will increase or decrease 5–16 %, and the actual evaporation rate of variation will increase or decrease 1–6 %. Overall, precipitation variation has greater effect on simulated runoff than temperature variation dose. In addition, temperature variation has more obvious effect on the runoff simulation results in dry years than in wet years. The actual evaporation of watershed depends on evaporation capacity and precipitation and increases with the increasing of the potential evaporation and precipitation. The study also shows that the climate change scenarios analysis technology, combined with SWAT hydrological model, can effectively simulate the effect of climate change on runoff.

     

Influences of climate change and human activities on Tarim River runoffs in China over the past half century

The changes in annual runoff of the three original rivers and the mainstream of Tarim River were analyzed by the non-parametric tests based on the hydrologic data during the period of 50 years. Using hydrologic data, meteorological data and the fitted equation, the impacts of climate change and human activities on annual runoff of the mainstream were assessed. Based on the analysis, the following conclusions can be drawn: (1) headstream runoff has increased in the past 50 years, and has sharply jumped after 1990; (2) mainstream runoff decreased progressively in the past 50 years, which indicated that interference from human activities was the main cause for the decreasing runoff. This had greater negative influence than positive influence, which caused the mainstream average runoff to decrease by 5.4 × 10⁸ m³ from 1990 to 2008 as compared to 1957–2008; (3) if human activities remained at pre-1990 levels, climate change alone would have caused the runoff of mainstream of Tarim River to increase by 5.4 × 10⁸ m³ annually in the past 20 years; (4) if the climate had remained at pre-1990 conditions, human activities alone would have caused the runoff of mainstream of Tarim River to increase by 5.4 × 10⁸ m³ annually over the past 20 years. However, mainstream average runoff was 42.6 × 10⁸ m³ from 1990 to 2008 with the negative effects of human activities masked by the larger, positive effect of climate changes. The results in this paper provide a scientific basis for conservation strategies, sustainable management, and ecological restoration of the Tarim River Basin.     

Distribution of cadmium among multimedia in Lake Qinghai,China

Lake Qinghai in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau is the largest lake in China. This study firstly reported the geochemistry of Cd in the lake. Water samples were collected from Lake Qinghai (n = 69) and Buha River (n = 12), while sediment (n = 22) and topsoil (n = 45) samples were collected from the lake and around the lake area, respectively. In addition, pore water samples (n = 20) were separated from sediment samples. Water samples were analyzed for pH, K, Na, Ca, Mg, Cl, S, and Cd, while sediment and topsoil samples were analyzed for K, Na, Ca, Mg, Al, Fe, Mn, S, Sc, and Cd. The average concentration of Cd was 0.014 μg L^?1 in the water of Lake Qinghai and 0.007 μg L^?1 in the water of Buha River. However, the average concentration of Cd was 0.320 μg L^?1 in the sediment pore water, much higher than that in the lake water and river water. Cadmium concentration in the lake water might be mainly controlled by salinity, while it in the pore water might be mainly controlled by carbonate minerals. Cadmium concentration in the river water might be controlled by alkalinity and pH. The average concentration of Cd in the sediment was 0.284 mg kg^?1. The enrichment of Cd in the lake sediment was significantly higher than that in the topsoil around the lake. Anthropogenic atmospheric deposition of Cd did not led to the increase in dissolved Cd level in the lake water, but led to its enrichment in the lake sediment.     

Quantification of the water balance and hydrogeological processes of groundwater–lake interactions in the Pampa Plain, Argentina

This paper gives an account of the assessment and quantification of the water balance and the hydrogeological processes related to lake–groundwater interaction in the Pampa Plain by using hydrogeochemical, isotopic and flow numerical modeling techniques. La Salada is a permanent shallow lake, with an area of 5.8 km², located on the SE of Buenos Aires Province. A total of 29 lake water samples and 15 groundwater samples were collected for both hydrochemical analysis and environmental stable isotope determination. Water table depths were measured in wells closed to the lake. Groundwater samples appear grouped on the Local Meteoric Water Line, suggesting a well-mixed system and that rainfall is the main recharge source to the aquifer. Water evaporation process within La Salada is also corroborated by its isotopic composition. The model that best adjusts to La Salada Lake hydrochemical processes includes evaporation from groundwater, calcite precipitation with CO₂ release and cationic exchange. The annual water balance terms for the lake basin indicates for each hydrological component the following values: 1.16 E⁰⁸ m³ rainfall, 8.15 E⁰⁷ m³ evapotranspiration, 1.90 E⁰⁶ m³ runoff, 1.55 E⁰⁷ m³ groundwater recharge, 6.01 E⁰⁶ m³ groundwater discharge to the lake, 9.54 E⁰⁶ m³ groundwater discharge to the river, 5.00 E⁰⁵ m³ urban extraction and 4.90 E⁰⁶ m³ lake evaporation. Integrated analysis of hydrochemical and isotopic information helped to calibrate the groundwater flow model, to validate the conceptual model and to quantitatively assess the basin water balance.     

Modelling climate-change impacts on groundwater recharge in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

A methodology is presented for assessing the average changes in groundwater recharge under a future climate. The method is applied to the 1,060,000 km² Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in Australia. Climate sequences were developed based upon three scenarios for a 2030 climate relative to a 1990 climate from the outputs of 15 global climate models. Dryland diffuse groundwater recharge was modelled in WAVES using these 45 climate scenarios and fitted to a Pearson Type III probability distribution to condense the 45 scenarios down to three: a wet future, a median future and a dry future. The use of a probability distribution allowed the significance of any change in recharge to be assessed. This study found that for the median future, climate recharge is projected to increase on average by 5% across the MDB but this is not spatially uniform. In the wet and dry future scenarios the recharge is projected to increase by 32% and decrease by 12% on average across the MDB, respectively. The differences between the climate sequences generated by the 15 different global climate models makes it difficult to project the direction of the change in recharge for a 2030 climate, let alone the magnitude.     

Groundwater flow dynamics of weathered hard-rock aquifers under climate-change conditions: an illustrative example of numerical modeling through the equivalent porous media approach in the north-western Pyrenees (France)

A numerical groundwater model of the weathered crystalline aquifer of Ursuya (a major water source for the north-western Pyrenees region, south-western France) has been computed based on monitoring of hydrological, hydrodynamic and meteorological parameters over 3 years. The equivalent porous media model was used to simulate groundwater flow in the different layers of the weathered profile: from surface to depth, the weathered layer (5?·?10^?8?≤?K?≤?5?·? 10^?7 m s^?1), the transition layer (7?·?10^?8?≤?K?≤?1?·? 10^?5 m s^?1, the highest values being along major discontinuities), two fissured layers (3.5?·?10^?8?≤?K?≤?5?·?? 10^?4 m s^?1, depending on weathering profile conditions and on the existence of active fractures), and the hard-rock basement simulated with a negligible hydraulic conductivity (K = 1 10 ^?9 ). Hydrodynamic properties of these five calculation layers demonstrate both the impact of the weathering degree and of the discontinuities on the groundwater flow. The great agreement between simulated and observed hydraulic conditions allowed for validation of the methodology and its proposed use for application on analogous aquifers. With the aim of long-term management of this strategic aquifer, the model was then used to evaluate the impact of climate change on the groundwater resource. The simulations performed according to the most pessimistic climatic scenario until 2050 show a low sensitivity of the aquifer. The decreasing trend of the natural discharge is estimated at about ?360 m³ y^?1 for recharge decreasing at about ?5.6 mm y^?1 (0.8 % of annual recharge).     

Runoff and sediment yield modeling using SWAT model: case of Wadi Hatab basin,central Tunisia

This study presents an application of the model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate daily and monthly water flow and sediment fluxes in the Wadi Hatab watershed (2200 km²) located in central Tunisia. The study basin is characterized by a significant climatic contrast, abrupt topography, and soil fragility, resulting thereby in flash floods and important water erosion rates. This alarming situation requires urgent interventions in order to preserve water and soil resources, implying the need for a decision tool for proper integrated management of the watershed. The model was calibrated and validated based on a comparison of simulated and observed flow rates at the basin outlet (hydrometric station Khanguet Zazia), during the periods 1987–1988 and 1989–1990, respectively. The comparison was based not only on visual inspection of the agreement between observed and simulated time series, but also on statistical parameters. Indeed, for the daily time step application, the Nash—Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values were 0.52 and 0.61, and the coefficient of determination (R²) was 0.54 and 0.61 for calibration and validation, respectively. As for the monthly time-step application, the obtained NSE values were 0.67 and 0.89 while R² values were 0.83 and 0.87 for calibration and validation, respectively. This clearly shows the reasonably good agreement between simulated and observed flow rates. In terms of erosion, the model gave sediment yield values ??of 1.15 and 5.37 t/ha/year during the periods of calibration and validation, respectively.     

Identification of sulfate sources in groundwater using isotope analysis and modeling of flood irrigation with waters of different quality in the Jinghuiqu district of China

The main objective of this study was to identify the main sources and processes that control SO₄ ^2? groundwater concentrations in the Jinghuiqu irrigation district of China using isotope analysis. Lysimeter irrigation experiments and numerical modeling were used to assess the impact of long-term irrigation practices on sulfate transport, when different sources of irrigation water were used. SO₄ ^2? concentrations in the groundwater of the entire irrigation area increased significantly from the years 1990 (a mean value was 4.8 mmol L^?1) to 2009 (a mean value was 9.84 mmol L^?1). The δ³⁴S-SO₄ ^2? values (ranging from +5.27 to +10.69 ‰) indicated that sulfates in groundwater were initially predominantly derived from dissolution of minerals. However, no soluble sulfate minerals (gypsum and/or mirabilite) were detected after 1990. To better understand this seeming anomaly, water content and SO₄ ^2? data were collected before and after the field irrigation experiment and analyzed using the HYDRUS-1D and HP1 software packages. The experimental data were also used to assess sulfate leaching when different sources of irrigation water were used under current irrigation practices. The dissolved sulfate concentrations in the soil profile increased significantly when groundwater was used for infiltration compared to the use of surface water. Irrigation water sources had a great impact on the increase of sulfate concentrations in the shallow groundwater, especially when groundwater with elevated concentrations was used for irrigation.