Preface to the Special Issue on Summer 2020: Record Rainfall in Asia — Mechanisms,Predictability and Impacts

Throughout vast areas of Asia, the summer of 2020 was extraordinarily wet. After an exceptionally wet May in North-east India and Bangladesh, excessive rainfall hit at least 10 provinces in central and southern China in June and July, caus-ing extensive flooding in many rural and urban locations. Long standing rainfall, lake and river level records were con-sequently broken in several parts of the region with the Yangtze-Huaihe river valleys, particularly badly impacted, with con-sequential economic losses. Floods and landslides also affected parts of Japan with at least one location in Kumamoto province even experiencing a record-breaking 1000 mm of rainfall in just 3 days in early July. The 2020 wet season in South Korea was also exceptionally long, lasting 54 days, compared to their more usual 32.     

Possible Impacts of the Arctic Oscillation on the Interdecadal Variation of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in East Asia

The influences of the wintertime AO (Arctic Oscillation) on the interdecadal variation of summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia were examined. An interdecadal abrupt change was found by the end of the 1970s in the variation of the AO index and the leading principal component time series of the summer rainfall in East Asia, The rainfall anomaly changed from below normal to above normal in central China, the southern part of northeastern China and the Korean peninsula around 1978. However,the opposite interdecadal variation was found in the rainfall anomaly in North China and South China.The interdecadal variation of summer rainfall is associated with the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation. It is indicated that the interdecadal variation of the AO exerts an influence on the weakening of the monsoon circulation. The recent trend in the AO toward its high-index polarity during the past two decades plays important roles in the land-sea contrast anomalies and wintertime precipitation anomaly. The mid- and high-latitude regions of the Asian continent are warming, while the low-latitude regions are cooling in winter and spring along with the AO entering its high-index polarity after the late 1970s. In the meantime, the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau and South China is excessive, implying an increase of soil moisture. The cooling tendency of the land in the southern part of Asia will persist until summer because of the memory of soil moisture. So the warming of the Asian continent is relatively slow in summer. Moreover, the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean which are located southward and eastward of the Asian land, are warming from winter to summer. This suggests that the contrast between the land and sea is decreased in summer. The interdecadal decrease of the land-sea heat contrast finally leads to the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation.     

Preface to the Special Issue:Predictability,Data Assimilation,and Dynamics of High Impact Weather-In Memory of Dr.Fuqing ZHANG

It has been two and a half years since Fuqing ZHANG,a distinguished professor in the Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science at the Pennsylvania State University(PSU),passed away unexpectedly on 19 July 2019.This special issue is to commemorate Prof.Fuqing ZHANG,who has made tremendous contributions on predictability,data assimilation,and the dynamics of high impact weather.     

Impacts of Previous Winter Kuroshio SSTA on Summer Rainfall in China

1. IntroductionAs well known, Kuroshio is a famous and strongwest boundary current in the North Pacific. It trans-fers enormous energy from the low latitudes to themid-high latitudes and releases huge heat flux to theatmosphere above (Hsiung, 1985). The variation ofKuroshio exerts great influence on weather and cli-mate in East Asian.During 1950-60s, Lü (1950, 1964) found that thewestern North Pacific SSTA had a close relation withsummer rainfall in China. In the 1970s, evidencesshowed…     

Preface to the Special Issue on the “Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters”(FEMD)

<正>Meteorological disasters usually exert huge impacts on the development of both human society and the economy.According to statistics from the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction,the annual mean economic loss caused by meteorological disasters accounts for 3%–6% of the total amount of global GDP.China is a country that has been     

Preface to the Special Issue “Unified Perspective of Climate Variability and Change”

正Forty years ago,Klaus Wyrtki(1975)of University of Hawaii discovered that El Nino warming off South America is not a result of local wind change but a response to the relaxed equatorial trade winds some 10 000 km away near the international dateline.The Kelvin wave mechanism was quickly verified from wind-forced ocean model simulations.Consequent     

Preface to Special Issue on the National Report to the IUGG Centennial by CNC-IAMAS(2011–2018)

正The 27th General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics(IUGG), which also marks the 100 th anniversary of IUGG, will be held during 8–18 July 2019 in Montréal, Canada. The Chinese National Committee(CNC)for the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences(IAMAS) has a more than 30-year tradition of     

Impacts of 30-60-Day Oscillations over the Subtropical Pacific on the East Asian Summer Rainfall

The relationships between the precipitation over East Asia (20°-45°N,110°-135°E) and the 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) over the Pacific during the boreal summer are studied in the paper.The daily wind and height fields of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,the 24-h precipitation data of 687 stations in China during 1958-2000,and the pentad precipitation of CMAP/NOAA from 1979 to 2002 are all analyzed by the space-time filter method.The analysis results,from every drought and flood summer in four different regions of East Asia respectively during 1958-2000,have shown that the flood (drought) in the East Asian summer monsoon region is absolutely companied with the strongly (weakly) westward propagations of ISO from the central-east Pacific,and depends little on the intensity changes of the East Asian summer monsoon. And the westward ISO is usually the low-frequency cyclones and anticyclones from the Bay of Alaska in northeastern Pacific and the Okhotsk in the northwestern Pacific of mid-high latitudes,and the ISO evolving in subtropical easterlies.In mid-high latitudes the phenomena are related to the westward propagating mid- ocean trough and the retreat of blocking high.Therefore the westward propagating ISO from the central-east Pacific to East Asia is indispensable for more rainfall occurring in East Asia in summer,which results from the long-wave adjustment process in the mid-high latitudes and ISO evolving in tropical easterlies.     

Atmospheric Rivers and Mei-yu Rainfall in China:A Case Study of Summer 2020※

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow, and transient filaments of strong horizontal water vapor transport that can lead to extreme precipitation. To investigate the relationship between ARs and mei-yu rainfall in China, the mei-yu season of 2020 in the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin is taken as an example. An adjusted AR-detection algorithm is applied on integrated water vapor transport (IVT) of the ERA5 reanalysis. The JRA-55 reanalysis and the data from Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) are also utilized to study the impacts of ARs on mei-yu rainfall in 2020. The results reveal that ARs in East Asia have an average length of 5400 km, a width of 600 km, a length/width ratio of 9.3, and a northeastward orientation of 30°. ARs are modulated by the western North Pacific subtropical high. The IVT core is located at the south side of low pressure systems, moving eastward with a speed of 10° d^?1. For the cross sections of ARs in the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin, 75% of the total flux is concentrated below 4 km with low-level jets near AR cores. Moreover, ARs occur mainly in the mei-yu period with a frequency of 20%–60%. The intensity of AR-related precipitation is 6–12 times that of AR-unrelated precipitation, and AR-related precipitation contributes about 50%–80% to total mei-yu precipitation. As shown in this case study of summer 2020, ARs are an essential part of the mei-yu system and have great impacts on mei-yu rainfall. Thus, ARs should receive more attention in research and weather forecast practices.     

Joint Effect of East Asia–Pacific and Eurasian Teleconnections on the Summer Precipitation in North Asia

The East Asia-Pacific(EAP) and Eurasian(EU) teleconnections are independent of each other on the seasonal timescale(with a correlation coefficient of only 0.03).But they may occur concurrently with consistent or opposite phases.This paper investigates their synergistic effect on the summer precipitation in North Asia.Based on the signs/phases of EAP and EU indices,the EAP and EU teleconnection anomalies occur in four cases:(Ⅰ) positive EAP+positive EU,(Ⅱ) negative EAP+negative EU,(Ⅲ) positive EAP+negative EU,and(Ⅳ) negative EAP+positive EU.Further analyses show that these four configurations of EAP and EU anomalies are coherently related to different atmospheric circulations over the midlatitude Eurasian continent,leading to different summer precipitation modes in North Asia.Category Ⅰ(Ⅱ) corresponds to a zonal tripole structure of the geopotential height at 500 hPa over eastern Europe and the Sea of Japan,leading to less(more) than normal precipitation in eastern Europe,Japan,and the surrounding areas,and more(less) precipitation from central China to Lake Baikal and eastern Russia.Category Ⅲ(Ⅳ) corresponds to a meridional dipole structure of the geopotential height at 500 hPa over North Asia,leading to more(less) precipitation in the northern North Asia and less(more) precipitation in most of the southern North Asia.Independent analysis reveals that the EAP teleconnection itself is positively correlated with the precipitation in the region between the eastern part of Lake Baikal and Okhotsk Sea,and negatively correlated with the precipitation in the region between Northeast China and Japan.Coincidently,the EU pattern and precipitation have negative correlations in Ural Mountain and Okhotsk Sea areas and positive correlations in the Lake Baikal area.The respective relations of EAP and EU with the summer precipitation in North Asia suggest that the EAP northern lobe overlapped with the EU central and eastern lobes could extend the geopotential anomalies over Lake Baikal to Russian Far East,creating an EAP-EU synergistic effect on the summer precipitation in North Asia.     

Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in the Extreme Summer of 2020※

Seasonal forecasts for Yangtze River basin rainfall in June, May–June–July (MJJ), and June–July–August (JJA) 2020 are presented, based on the Met Office GloSea5 system. The three-month forecasts are based on dynamical predictions of an East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) index, which is transformed into regional-mean rainfall through linear regression. The June rainfall forecasts for the middle/lower Yangtze River basin are based on linear regression of precipitation. The forecasts verify well in terms of giving strong, consistent predictions of above-average rainfall at lead times of at least three months. However, the Yangtze region was subject to exceptionally heavy rainfall throughout the summer period, leading to observed values that lie outside the 95％ prediction intervals of the three-month forecasts. The forecasts presented here are consistent with other studies of the 2020 EASM rainfall, whereby the enhanced mei-yu front in early summer is skillfully forecast, but the impact of midlatitude drivers enhancing the rainfall in later summer is not captured. This case study demonstrates both the utility of probabilistic seasonal forecasts for the Yangtze region and the potential limitations in anticipating complex extreme events driven by a combination of coincident factors.     

Preface to the Special Issue on the Program of “Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues”—A Strategic Scientific Pioneering Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

<正>Global warming has been one of the biggest issues faced by the world in recent decades.It is closely related to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases(GHGs)—mainly CO_2,CH_4 and N_2O—and the effects of reducing emissions and increasing the carbon fixation capability.China,as a large country with rapid economic and social development,has a major     

Preface to the Special Issue on the “Observation,Prediction and Analysis of severe Convection of China”(OPACC) National “973” Project

正China is a country that is frequently affected by severe convective weather.Here,severe convective weather mainly refers to intense local heavy precipitation,thunderstorm-induced gale-force winds including those from tornadoes and downbursts,and hail and lightning.These types of severe weather are usually small in spatial scale and rapid in their development,and are therefore difficult to capture by observational networks and are poorly resolved in typical operational numerical weather prediction(NWP)models.Furthermore,many of the important dynamic and physical processes involved are not     

Relationship Between the Eastern Tibetan Plateau Rainfall and Subtropical High Shift in Summer

Based on the routine rainfall data on the Tibetan Plateau and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,the rela- tionship between the eastern Tibetan Plateau rainfall and the southward/northward shift of West Pacific subtropical high in summer of 1993/1994 is studied.The results show that:the West Pacific subtropi- cal high is abnormally located to more southern latitude and the high ridge is mainly the quasi-biweekly southward/northward oscillation in its processes of northward shift from May to August in 1993;but it is ab- normally located to more northern latitude and the high ridge is obviously 30-60-day southward/northward oscillation in its processes of northward shift from May to August in 1994.At the same time,it is found that the changes of the eastern Tibetan Plateau rainfall active/break have the similar characteristics of the high ridge southward/northward oscillation.Therefore,the southward/northward shift of the West Pacific subtropical high in summer may be related to the changes of eastern Tibetan Plateau rainfall active/break.     

The ENSO’s Effect on Eastern China Rainfall in the Following Early Summer

ENSO’s effect on the rainfall in eastern China in the following early summer is investigated by using station precipitation data and the ERA-40 reanalysis data from 1958 to 2002. In June, after the El Nino peak, the precipitation is significantly enhanced in the Yangtze River valley while suppressed in the Huaihe River-Yellow River valleys. This relationship between ENSO and the rainfall in eastern China is established possibly through two teleconnections: One is related to the western North Pacific (WNP) ...     

Influence of the Mascarene High and Australian High on the Summer Monsoon in East Asia： Ensemble Simulation

By using a nine-level atmospheric general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP 9L AGCM), two sets of numerical experiments are carried out to investigate the influence of the Mascarene high (MH) and Australian high (AH) over the southern subtropics upon the East Asian summer monsoon circulation and summer precipitation in East Asia. The use of ensemble statistics is adopted to reduce the simulation errors. The result shows that with the intensification of MH, the Somali low-level jet is significantly enhanced together with the summer monsoon circulation in the tropical Asia and western Pacific region. Furthermore, the anticyclonic anomaly in the tropical western Pacific to the east of the Philippines may induce a weak East-Asia-Pacific teleconnection pattern. In the meantime,geopotential height in the Tropics is enhanced while it is reduced over most regions of mid-high latitudes,thus the northwestern Pacific subtropical high at 500 hPa extends southwestward, resulting in more rainfall in southern China and less rainfall in northern China. A similar anomaly pattern of the atmospheric circulation systems is found in the experiment of the intensification of AH. On the other hand, because the cross-equatorial currents associated with AH are much weaker than the Somali jet, the anomaly magnitude caused by the intensification of AH is generally weak, and the influence of AH on summer rainfall in China seems to be localized in southern China. Comparison between the two sets of experiments indicates that MH plays a crucial role in the interactions of general atmospheric circulation between the two hemispheres.