大科学思维与现代地理学的发展问题

本文结合钱学森先生关于“建立地理科学体系”的倡议,主张从当代大科学思维出发,研究现代地理学的发展问题,并以大科学为参照框架,提出了发展“大地理学”的思想。并探讨了围绕“大地理学”的若干理论问题和现代地理学向“大地理学”转变的途径。     

土地规划的自然过程基础与大数据时代的方法探索

随着城市化与工业化程度不断加深,产业空间结构不断重组,导致土地供需矛盾日益突出,国土资源无序开发日益严重,因而优化国土资源空间格局,成为生态文明建设的首要任务。同时,科学合理配置土地资源对土地规划提出了更高要求,传统土地规划方法有待改革。在基于尊重自然、顺应自然的开发理念下,总结土地自然过程基础对土地规划的影响,实现“山水路林田生命共同体”的协调规划发展。其次,“大数据”时代的来临,云计算、空间数据整合、云分析等技术对土地规划方法提供新的技术支撑;最后,针对土地规划数据特殊性、移动用户终端的广泛性,提出应创建土地规划云服务平台,使土地规划实现数据集成管理和更新,从而提高土地规划质量。     

地理科学的中国进展与国际趋势

中国地理学取得了骄人的进展,表现在科研方向的突破、对国家建设的贡献、研究手段的革新、对科学和教育的贡献、对社会的贡献等方面。但当前中国也存在基础研究薄弱、学科整合不足、学术走向迷茫、竞争能力堪忧、全球视野欠缺、地理教育错位等问题。国际地理学对科学界所确定的关键研究问题表示出更大的关注,科学界也将更加了解地理学及其视角能对科学知识做出的贡献。地理学所关切的科学问题直指今天决策者的紧迫需求。地理学家以多种方式对解决实际问题做出贡献。国际地理学的发展聚焦在：揭示复杂系统中的不平衡和动态,认识全球化 (包括环境、经济、人口、政府和文化等)的潮流及其影响,建立从地方到全球的空间连续系列研究,利用包括时间系列数据在内的纵向数据进行过程比较研究,加强地理学理论、技术和研究成果对决策的影响,加强地理教育,包括努力提高公众的地理学能力,改进高等院校地理学家的训练,提高地理理解力,加强地理组织机构。     

中国资源地理学发展的现状与趋势

随着人类需求增长与资源本身稀缺性、有限性之间的矛盾日益突出,资源的开发利用问题逐渐成为全球性的热点问题之一。中国当前正面临着人均资源相对贫乏与粗放式、资源消耗式经济增长方式之间的矛盾,这种形势导致资源承载能力不断下降,由此产生了一系列的生态环境问题。因此,以资源为研究对象的资源地理学及其相关学科的迅猛发展也将成为必然。本文首先论述了中国资源地理学学科地位的发展过程;阐述了资源地理学的研究对象和内容;并从资源的广义内涵出发,将资源地理学划分为自然资源地理学和社会资源地理学2大类,初步构建了资源地理学的学科体系。然后回顾了国内外资源地理学产生与发展历史,并总结了资源地理学当前主要研究领域的进展情况。最后从研究内容、方法以及学科建设3个方面提出了中国资源地理学的未来发展趋势。     

中国北方地区沙漠化的现状与趋势之窥见

近30年来,我国北方地区沙漠的面积有所扩大,但扩大不多;而主要表现为固定沙丘植被遭受破坏,面积减少,半固定沙丘和流动沙丘的面积相应大大增加,沙漠化程度明显加剧。沙漠的演变趋势主要受控于未来气候的变化,随着人类活动导致的CO_2等温室效应气体浓度的增加,全球气候变暖,我国北方地区的东部大部分(除华北地区外)沙区降水可能增多,有利于沙漠化过程减缓甚至逆转;西部沙区干旱加强,将促使沙漠化的进一步发展。     

地理信息大数据数据规范的编写与探索

本文就内蒙古自治区地理信息大数据数据规范地方标准的编写内容和结构进行了探索与分析。     

地理科学视角下的气候变化研究实践与思考

近几十年来,因气候变化异常而引发的一系列灾害事件已被世界各地的器测及实验记录所证实。深入探究不同时空尺度气候变化的特征与机理是建立气候变化与各类灾害事件耦合关系的前提。自然地理学是地理科学的分支学科之一,主要研究不同自然事件的空间分布特征及其演化机理,因此探究气候变化及各类灾害事件的时空分异规律及其互相耦合机制,是地理科学学科视角下气候变化研究的主要内容。本文以国家自然科学基金委员会地理科学学科2010—2021年与气候变化有关的面上项目、青年科学基金以及地区科学基金的申请和资助项目为研究对象,剖析学科领域内气候变化相关研究的资助现状,归纳并展望地理科学学科视角下气候变化研究的未来发展方向。结果表明,近十几年来,地理科学学科领域内气候变化相关研究的青年科学基金申请与资助量均逐年增长,显示出该学科方向人才储备规模不断扩大;面上项目的申请与资助量较为稳定;地区科学基金的申请量亦呈增加趋势,但资助量波动较大。依托单位中,中国科学院下属的6家研究院（所）是地理科学学科中气候变化相关研究的主要科研单位。目前,地理科学学科领域内的气候变化研究存在研究队伍区域分布不均、研究手段及内容相对单一、机理和...     

中国能源消费与气候变化的关系

Energy consumption has an inevitable connection with economic level and climate. Based on selected data covering annual total energy consumption and its composition and that of all kinds of energy in 1953-1999, the annual residential energy consumption and the coal and electricity consumption in 1980-1999 in China, the acreage of crops under cultivation suffered from drought and flood annually and gross domestic product (GDP) in 1953-1999 in the whole country, and mean daily temperature data from 29 provincial meteorological stations in the whole country from 1970 to 1999, this paper divides energy consumption into socio-economic energy consumption and climatic energy consumption in the way of multinomial. Itchanges between the climate energy consumption andalso goes further into the relations and their changes between the climate energy consumptionenergy consumption and the economic level inand climate factor and between the socio-economic energy between the climate energy level in China with the method of statistical analysis. At present, there are obvious transitions in the changing relationships of the energy consumption to economy and climate, which comprises the transition of economic system from resource-intensive industry to technology-intensive industry and the transition of climatic driving factors of the energy consumption from driven by the disasters of drought and flood to driven by temperature.     

全球气候变化下中国农业的脆弱性与适应对策

全球气候变化问题虽然还存在某些不确定性，但已得到广泛认同，对气候条件颇为敏感的农业将受影响，主要效应可概括为：（１）农业地理限制的变动；（２）作物产量的变化；（３）对农业系统的冲击。中国农业对气候变化与波动尤其敏感，加之人口压力进一步加大和农业资源已有紧缺，粮食自给的能力将受到严重威胁，必须充分重视适应和调整对策的研究，变动性与不确定性是气候的固有特征，在评价全球气候变化对农业的影响时应该认识到这     

基于腾讯迁徙大数据的中国城市网络研究

随着经济全球化和区域一体化的快速发展,城市间的交流日益密切,要素的流动性和互赖性促进了城市网络的形成,并成为一种新的区域组织模式和空间结构.本文基于2018年腾讯人口迁徙数据,构建了372×372关系数据矩阵,并从不同交通方式出发,系统刻画了中国城市网络格局.研究表明:①网络关联度高的城市主要集中在胡焕庸线以东区域,尤...     

Perceptions of climate change in China: The research and policy connection

Global climate change has evolved from a scientific problem into an economic and political problem oI worlOwloe rater- est. National perspectives play a crucial role in addressing climate change. Mutual understanding of perspectives is nec- essary to result in rational policies and a consensus among stakeholders with divergent interests. Conceptual frameworks for understanding the problem of climate change in China, the largest developing country and the largest greenhouse gas emitter, are of great significance to national and international efforts to address the problems of climate change. Chinese perceptions of climate change as a sustainable development problem have recently been in tension with an emerging Western perspective that frames climate change as a security issue. This paper explores Chinese perceptions of climate change as expressed in recent governmental policy statements, public opinion surveys, and academic scholarship with a focus on publications in Chinese-language journals, often unfamiliar in the West. It looks at the relationship between Chinese research and policy and finds that the Chinese policy frame of climate change as a sustainable development problem draws from the body of domestic research and is reflective of the perspectives and multidisciplinary approach of Chinese researchers in areas of climate change.     

A spatiotemporal indexing approach for efficient processing of big array-based climate data with MapReduce

Climate observations and model simulations are producing vast amounts of array-based spatiotemporal data. Efficient processing of these data is essential for assessing global challenges such as climate change, natural disasters, and diseases. This is challenging not only because of the large data volume, but also because of the intrinsic high-dimensional nature of geoscience data. To tackle this challenge, we propose a spatiotemporal indexing approach to efficiently manage and process big climate data with MapReduce in a highly scalable environment. Using this approach, big climate data are directly stored in a Hadoop Distributed File System in its original, native file format. A spatiotemporal index is built to bridge the logical array-based data model and the physical data layout, which enables fast data retrieval when performing spatiotemporal queries. Based on the index, a data-partitioning algorithm is applied to enable MapReduce to achieve high data locality, as well as balancing the workload. The proposed indexing approach is evaluated using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) climate reanalysis dataset. The experimental results show that the index can significantly accelerate querying and processing (~10× speedup compared to the baseline test using the same computing cluster), while keeping the index-to-data ratio small (0.0328%). The applicability of the indexing approach is demonstrated by a climate anomaly detection deployed on a NASA Hadoop cluster. This approach is also able to support efficient processing of general array-based spatiotemporal data in various geoscience domains without special configuration on a Hadoop cluster.     

东北地区未来气候变化对农业气候资源的影响

为探求未来气候变化对东北地区农业气候资源的影响,本文基于区域气候模式系统输出的东北地区IPCC AR5提出的低辐射和高辐射强迫RCP_4.5（低排放）、RCP_8.5（高排放）情景下2005-2099年气象资料,通过与东北地区1961-2010年91个气象站点观测资料同化,分析了历史资料（Baseline）、RCP_4.5、RCP_8.5情景下东北地区农业热量资源和降水资源空间分布及其变化趋势。结果表明：① 年均温度空间分布自南向北降低,未来各地区温度均有升高,RCP_8.5情景下升温更明显,Baseline情景年均温度为7.70 ℃,RCP_4.5和RCP_8.5年均温度分别为9.67 ℃、10.66 ℃;其他农业热量资源随温度变化一致,具体≥ 10 ℃初日提前3 d、4 d,初霜日推迟2 d、6 d,生长季日数延长4 d、10 d,积温增加400 ℃·d、700 ℃·d;水资源稍有增加,但不明显。② 历史增温速率为0.35 ℃/10a,未来增温速率最快为RCP_8.5情景0.48 ℃/10a,高于RCP_4.5的0.19 ℃/10a。21世纪后期,RCP_8.5增温趋势明显快于RCP_4.5,北部地区增温更加速。其他农业热量资源随温度变化趋势相一致,但具体空间分布有所不同。生长季降水总体呈增加趋势,但不显著,年际间变化较大;东部地区降水增加,西部减少。未来东北地区总体向暖湿方向发展,热量资源整体增加,但与降水的不匹配可能将会对农业生产造成不利的影响。     

基于微博大数据的气候变化对中国赏樱旅游的影响

研究气候变化对生态系统旅游和休闲功能的影响是旅游地理学的重要领域。本文发展和优化了基于Logistic曲线从微博大数据中提取赏樱旅游活动开展时间的方法,并从2879033条与樱花相关的新浪微博大数据中筛选出587891条有效微博,进而提取和重建了中国2010—2019年赏樱旅游活动时间数据集,该数据集通过了物候站点观测数据和与温度响应关系的验证。在此基础上分析了过去10 a中国21个城市赏樱旅游活动始日、末日和持续期的时空格局,并模拟和预测了SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5两种气候情景下,2020—2050年中国赏樱旅游活动时间的变化趋势。结果表明：① 过去10 a,全国大部分城市赏樱旅游活动始日提前（占比61.9%）,末日提前（占比76.2%）,持续期缩短（占比52.4%）。纬度每升高1°,始日、末日分别推迟0.286 d（P < 0.01）和0.394 d（P < 0.01）,持续期缩短0.286 d（P > 0.05）。② 未来气候情景下,大部分城市赏樱旅游活动始日和末日提前,持续期延长。SSP5-8.5情景对赏樱旅游活动的影响比SSP2-4.5情景更明显。本文的方法和框架能够为气候变化对特定旅游活动的影响研究提供基于大数据视角的参考。     

中国全球气候变化影响研究方法的进展

着重介绍了中国全球气候变化影响研究中有关方法的最新进展,其中包括实验室、农田和野外观测实验;冰芯、树木年轮和历史文献方法;数值模式研究,特别是静态模式和动态模式研究。最后,指出了存在的问题,以及研究展望。     

Current situation and trend of arable land change in China

IntroductionAlmost all the developing countries have experienced the decrease of cultivated land in the process of population growth, economic development and urbanization. The situation is more serious in China because of the huge amount of population and relative limited arable land. From 1986 to 1995, the cultivated land has decreased nearly 7 million hectares, the amount of annual decrease is 0.7 million hectares in China according to the available statistical data. But the real situation…     

Spatiotemporal data model for network time geographic analysis in the era of big data

There has been a resurgence of interest in time geography studies due to emerging spatiotemporal big data in urban environments. However, the rapid increase in the volume, diversity, and intensity of spatiotemporal data poses a significant challenge with respect to the representation and computation of time geographic entities and relations in road networks. To address this challenge, a spatiotemporal data model is proposed in this article. The proposed spatiotemporal data model is based on a compressed linear reference (CLR) technique to transform network time geographic entities in three-dimensional (3D) (x, y, t) space to two-dimensional (2D) CLR space. Using the proposed spatiotemporal data model, network time geographic entities can be stored and managed in classical spatial databases. Efficient spatial operations and index structures can be directly utilized to implement spatiotemporal operations and queries for network time geographic entities in CLR space. To validate the proposed spatiotemporal data model, a prototype system is developed using existing 2D GIS techniques. A case study is performed using large-scale datasets of space-time paths and prisms. The case study indicates that the proposed spatiotemporal data model is effective and efficient for storing, managing, and querying large-scale datasets of network time geographic entities.     

Impacts of future climate change on agroclimatic resources in Northeast China

In this study, the spatial distribution and changing trends of agricultural heat and precipitation resources in Northeast China were analyzed to explore the impacts of future climate changes on agroclimatic resources in the region. This research is based on the output meteorological data from the regional climate model system for Northeast China from 2005 to 2099, under low and high radiative forcing scenarios RCP4.5 (low emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (high emission scenario) as proposed in IPCC AR5. Model outputs under the baseline scenario, and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were assimilated with observed data from 91 meteorological stations in Northeast China from 1961 to 2010 to perform the analyses. The results indicate that: (1) The spatial distribution of temperature decreases from south to north, and the temperature is projected to increase in all regions, especially under a high emission scenario. The average annual temperature under the baseline scenario is 7.70°C, and the average annual temperatures under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are 9.67°C and 10.66°C, respectively. Other agricultural heat resources change in accordance with temperature changes. Specifically, the first day with temperatures ≥10°C arrives 3 to 4 d earlier, the first frost date is delayed by 2 to 6 d, and the duration of the growing season is lengthened by 4 to 10 d, and the accumulated temperature increases by 400 to 700°C·d. Water resources exhibit slight but not significant increases. (2) While the historical temperature increase rate is 0.35°C/10a, the rate of future temperature increase is the highest under the RCP8.5 scenario at 0.48°C/10a, compared to 0.19°C/10a under the RCP4.5 scenario. In the later part of this century, the trend of temperature increase is significantly faster under the RCP8.5 scenario than under the RCP4.5 scenario, with faster increases in the northern region. Other agricultural heat resources exhibit similar trends as temperature, but with different specific spatial distributions. Precipitation in the growing season generally shows an increasing but insignificant trend in the future, with relatively large yearly fluctuations. Precipitation in the eastern region is projected to increase, while a decrease is expected in the western region. The future climate in Northeast China will change towards higher temperature and humidity. The heat resource will increase globally, however its disparity with the change in precipitation may negatively affect agricultural activities.     

Coastal dune rock development and Holocene climate changes in South China

Coastal dune rocks in China are eolian sands cemented by calcium carbonate under subaerial conditions, widely distributing on the tropical and subtropical coasts of South China. Particular temperature and precipitation as well as local wave and landform conditions are required for the formation of the dune rocks. A correspondence was found between Holocene environmental changes and coastal dune rock development by comparing the features of the sea-level and climate changes in the Holocene period with the ages, scales, and cementation of the dune rocks on the South China coasts. The findings provide well grounded explanation for some problems unresolved in the past researches on the coastal dune rock in South China: (1) There were no dune rocks with ages older than 6000 years in South China because the dune rocks formed before 6000 a BP were covered by the sea water that rose in the later period; (2) the dune rocks with ages of around 3000 a BP were widely found in South China today because the coastal dunes were cumulated on a large scale at that time as a result of temperature falling after the end of Megathermal; (3) Medieval Warm Period was the main period for the eolian dunes to be cemented into the coastal dune rocks in South China; (4) lack of dune rocks of younger than 1000 a BP was accounted for by that the climate conditions in recent one thousand years were not suitable for the cementation.     

基于模式优选的21世纪中国气候变化情景集合预估

未来气候变化情景预估是制定气候变化应对和适应策略的科学基础。本文利用参与耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）的30个气候模式的模拟数据,通过评估各模式对历史气候变化的模拟能力,筛选出模拟区域气候变化的最优模式组合,进而建立偏最小二乘回归（PLS）集合预估模型,据此利用最优模式模拟结果预估区域温度和降水变化情景。通过与历史数据的对比,研究发现本文基于最优模式建立的PLS集合预估模型不仅优于传统的多模式集合平均,而且也优于利用全部模式建立的PLS集合预估模型,体现了模式优选过程的重要性。本文基于优选模式的PLS集合预估模型预估结果表明：① 21世纪各区域温度将持续上升,且冬半年升温速率总体大于夏半年,北方地区升温速率总体高于南方地区;RCP 4.5排放情景下温度上升先快后慢,转折点出现在21世纪中期,RCP 8.5排放情景下,呈持续增加趋势,至21世纪末的升温幅度约为RCP 4.5情景的2倍。② 21世纪各区降水变化均呈显著增加趋势,并表现出高排放情景大于低排放情景,少雨区大于多雨区的特征,但是降水增加过程伴有明显的年代际波动。对比发现,传统的等权重集合平均全部模式（EMC）方法预估的中国夏季变暖速率高于冬季,且降水基本呈线性增加,有悖于全球变暖的基本特征及中国降水具有鲜明的年代际变化特征的基本认识。因而,本文预估的温度和降水变化特征均更符合中国气候变化的基本规律。