A method developed for predicting potential precursors of earthquakes

This paper describes the methodology used to eliminate environmental effects to a time series of short distance (24m) leveling across a geological fault in order to detect potential precursors of earthquakes from the residual time series. First, linear trends and periodic signals are removed from the observations with the help of a recursive least squares method. Then, a controlled autoregression model is used to predict the environmental contribution due to precipitation and evaporation. The difference between the leveling data and these predictions are considered to be due to endogenic crustal processes. Applying this methodology to leveling data of approximately 13 years at Niukouyu crustal deformation station near Beijing reveals an anomalous deformation before the Tangshan earthquake (M7.8), which has its epicenter about 180 km from the survey site. However, in the time period considered, another anomaly occurred which cannot be related directly to a seismic event.     

全国一等水准点高程近20年变化分析

我国于1991—1999年建设的国家第二期一等水准网复测与2012—2015年建设的国家一等水准网成果相隔近20年。受地壳运动、经济建设、地下水开采与回灌等因素的影响,许多地区出现了不同程度的地表沉降和季节性地表起伏,造成区域高程成果发生了不同程度的变化,影响了高程基准的维护及高程成果的使用。本文通过分析两期一等水准重合点、统计分析我国一等水准点20年高程变化量及其变化趋势,并从两期水准网测量设备、措施及测量精度的差异,重力异常改正计算所采用的重力基准、正常重力公式及重力数据的差异,网形结构差异,水准测量周期、水准环闭合周期的差异,地壳垂直运动与局部地表形变影响等4方面进行了两期高程变化的原因分析。研究表明:(1)国家一等水准网点高程近20年发生了不同程度的变化,许多区域出现了严重沉降;(2)地壳垂直运动及局部地表形变是引起高程变化的主要因素;(3)国家一等水准网应进行定期复测更新,复测时应尽量缩短水准测量周期,全网水准测量周期不应超过5年[1]、力争3年内完成。     

Ground deformation associated with post-mining activity at the French–German border revealed by novel InSAR time series method

We present a novel methodology for integration of multiple InSAR data sets for computation of two dimensional time series of ground deformation. The proposed approach allows combination of SAR data acquired with different acquisition parameters, temporal and spatial sampling and resolution, wavelength and polarization. Produced time series have combined coverage, improved temporal resolution and lower noise level. We apply this methodology for mapping coal mining related ground subsidence and uplift in the Greater Region of Luxembourg along the French–German border. For this we processed 167 Synthetic Aperture Radar ERS-1/2 and ENVISAT images acquired between 1995 and 2009 from one ascending (track 29) and one descending (track 337) tracks and created over five hundred interferograms that were used for time series analysis. Derived vertical and east–west linear deformation rates show with remarkable precision a region of localized ground deformation located above and caused by mining and post-mining activities. Time series of ground deformation display temporal variability: reversal from subsidence to uplift and acceleration of subsidence in the vertical component, and horizontal motion toward the center of the subsidence on the east–west component. InSAR results are validated by leveling measurements collected by the French Geological Survey (BRGM) during 2006–2008. We determined that deformation rate changes are mainly caused by water level variations in the mines. Due to higher temporal and spatial resolution the proposed space-borne method detected a larger number of subsidence and uplift areas in comparison to leveling measurements restricted to annual monitoring of benchmark points along roads. We also identified one deformation region that is not precisely located above the mining sites. Comparison of InSAR measurements with the water levels measured in the mining pits suggest that part of the water that filled the galleries after termination of the dewatering systems may come from this region. Providing that enough SAR data is available, this method opens new opportunities for detecting and locating man-made and natural ground deformation signals with high temporal resolution and precision.     

中国大陆GPS基准站的时间序列特征

利用1999年3月至2002年3月期间“中国地壳运动观测网络”25个GPS基准站与周边国家IGS站的观测资料，进行了时间序列分析研究，并对提高GPS基准站的观测精度进行了探讨。结果表明，GPS基准站的时间序列具有一定的周期性，高程分量的周期性最为明显，GPS点位高程时间序列拟舍曲线的波峰和波谷出现的时间表现为区域性的不同。     

An iterative PS-InSAR method for the analysis of large spatio-temporal baseline data stacks for land subsidence estimation

South-west of Tehran, the capital city of Iran, is subjected to a high deformation rate due to excessive groundwater extractions. Persistent Scatterrer SAR Interferometry (PS-InSAR) technique is used to monitor Tehran’s deformation. Three time series data including two Sentinel-1A (S-1A) spanning from 2014 to 2017, and an ENVISAT-ASAR data stack spanning from 2004 to 2010, are analyzed. The PS-InSAR technique does not perform well on ENVISAT-ASAR due to poor selection of PS points induced by large perpendicular baselines and strong temporal decorrelation of the dataset. In this paper, a novel Iterative PSI method (IPSI) is proposed to increase the PS points which are lost in PS-InSAR technique because of the unsuccessful derivation of the absolute phase value due to an integer ambiguity. The method selects PS points based on simultaneous analysis of their amplitude and phase. Results demonstrate that the density of PSs has been increased by about 4.5 times. Line of Sight (LOS) velocities obtained from both S-1A and ENVISAT-ASAR data analysis are highly compatible with each other, indicating the reliability of the both applied methods. The maximum cumulative displacements are estimated as 39.6 cm and 88.4 cm for Sentinel-1A and ENVISAT-ASAR datasets respectively. Moreover, the subsidence area has grown in the period between the data acquisition time. The methods are successfully validated by subsidence rates obtained from precise leveling and GPS observations.     

永久散射体雷达差分干涉反演矿区时序沉降场

针对永久散射体差分干涉测量(PSIn SAR)算法流程,发展了基于周期函数模型的空间维解缠方法,并将其应用于矿区时间序列地表变形反演。通过在研究区域内安装人工角反射器(CR),将CR点上计算所得的周期模型参数分量作为整个网络的约束,通过空间约束平差以实现空间维解缠。选取了河南省境内白沙水库附近的煤矿密集区为主要研究区域,采用周期函数模型对矿区线性及非线性形变分量进行模拟,反演了2007年2月—2010年2月的时间序列形变场,并采用研究区域内的水准实测数据作为外部验证数据。实验结果表明:白沙水库周围区域存在着较为明显的沉降,在煤矿分布区域内累积最大沉降量超过了10 cm。沉降区域内以线性沉降趋势为主,非线性沉降较为缓慢,仅在水库的西南方向较为明显。应用已有的水准点实测形变值对实验结果进行验证分析,结果表明该方法精度可达约±2.1 mm,证实了本文采用的方法在矿区地表时序形变反演中的可行性和可靠性,对预防过度采矿导致的矿区塌陷具重要现实意义。     

Radar interferometry time series analysis of Mashhad subsidence

A large agricultural area located in 20 km north of the city of Mashhad in the north-east of Iran is subject to land subsidence. The subsidence rate was achieved in a couple of sparse points by precise leveling between 1995 and 2005, and continuous GPS measurements obtained from 2005 to 2006. In order to study the temporal behavior of the deformation in high spatial resolution, the small baseline subset (SBAS) algorithm was used to generate the interferometric SAR time series analysis. Time series analysis was performed using 19 interferograms calculated from 12 ENVISAT ASAR data spanning between 2003 and 2006. The time series results exhibited that the area is subsiding continuously without a significant seasonal effect. Mean LOS deformation velocity map obtained from time series analysis demonstrated a considerable subsidence rate up to 24 (cm/yr). In order to evaluate the time series analysis results, continuous GPS measurements as a geodetic approach were applied. The comparisons showed a great agreement between interferometry results and geodetic technique. Moreover, the information of various piezometric wells distributed in the area corresponding to 1995 to 2005 showed a significant decline in water table up to 20 meters. The correlation between the piezometric information and the surface deformation at well’s locations showed that the subsidence occurrence in Mashhad is due to the excess groundwater withdrawal.     

GNSS测站速度估计模型重建

获取准确的GNSS测站速度对于研究全球板块运动、地壳形变、地震活动及其地球动力学过程至关重要。为此,以GNSS基线解算后的基线向量作为观测值,重建了最小二乘综合速度解算模型和卡尔曼滤波速度估计模型。模型中,考虑了测站坐标、运动速度、年、半年周期项一同作为参数,在基线解网平差的同时,一并求解获取速度估值。同时,利用坐标时序分析的方法,顾及白噪声和幂律噪声的影响,对单日解坐标时间序列重建了时序速度拟合估计模型,以获取长期趋势项作为速度值。基于3种模型,对川滇地区中国地壳运动观测网络2010—2014年21个GPS基准站的观测数据进行了速度估计与对比分析。结果表明:3种模型所估计测站速度非常接近,差异基本处于0~1mm/a范围之内;速度估值中误差均在亚毫米水平。由此得出,3种速度估计模型具有本质的一致性,均可正确估计测站运动速度,能够满足高精度地壳形变研究的需要。     

一种顾及永久散射体的SBAS InSAR时序地表沉降提取方法

提出了一种顾及永久散射体的SBAS InSAR时序地表形变提取方法。通过设置相干性、振幅离差指数、形变速率3阈值提取稳定的永久散射体,将其作为地面控制点引入SBAS InSAR处理流程,完成对地表形变的提取,并以郑州地区为例进行试验。获取了郑州市区2016年11月至2017年11月的地表沉降速率和时序地表沉降量,通过与PS InSAR、SBAS InSAR处理结果及水准测量进行对比,说明了该方法的可靠性。     

基于相干目标的干涉图叠加方法监测天津地区地面沉降

利用ENVISAT ASAR数据,采用基于相干目标的干涉图叠加方法,对天津地区的地面沉降现象进行了DInSAR监测试验.差分干涉处理采用"两轨法",使用校正了高程异常的SRTM DEM数据消除高程相位.以相干系数为标准选取了相干目标,解缠过程中运用了Delaunay三角剖分和权重最小费用流算法.本文获得的季度平均沉降速率图有效揭示了试验区地面沉降的空间展布及相对形变量,但其获得的绝对形变量尚需地面实测数据校验.     

InSAR技术在沂沭断裂带地表形变监测中的应用研究

针对常规大地测量监测沂沭断裂带地表形变结果无法全面反演该区域构造应力场的局限性,尝试采用PS和SBAS两种In SAR时序分析技术对该区域地表形变进行监测。首先对SBAS-In SAR技术的原理进行详细推导和分析;在此基础上,对覆盖研究区的14景ENVISAT-ASAR数据采用PS-In SAR和SBAS-InSAR技术进行处理,分别提取了该区域地表年平均形变速率图;通过与水准监测数据的对比分析发现:InSAR时序分析方法在大范围、持续缓慢断裂带地表形变监测中能够获取与精密水准监测一致的形变趋势,且SBAS-In SAR技术在数据量较少情况下能获得更好的监测效果。这表明In SAR时序分析技术可以作为断裂带微小地表形变监测的有效手段。     

基于PSInSAR技术的澳门地表沉降研究

PSInSAR技术为克服相位失相关和大气延迟提供可能,为提高形变监测的精度展示很好的前景。介绍利用澳门地区的数据进行地表沉降探测实验,利用29幅Envisat的SAR数据,建立时间序列差分干涉图。通过对研究区域的64 480多个PS点的计算,从2003年到2010年,该地区的平均沉降速度达到2.1mm/y,与精密水准测量具有较高的一致性。     

滇西实验场区地壳密度时变特征与强震机理研究

利用重力与水准资料分析研究了滇西背景单层密度变化图像和1985～1992年单层密度时变特征,结果显示其与断裂活动、地震活动明显相关,特别是1996年丽江地震的孕育可能与洱源至剑川或鹤庆的串珠状低波数时变异常带及背景地壳密度变化梯级带有关。基于此,结合已有地震前兆或孕育模式,从地壳运动角度初步提出了地壳内部密度时变的强震前兆模式或发震机制。     

重力测量在三峡库区形变监测中的作用

阐述了重力测量在三峡库区形变监测中的作用。     

普宁市地面沉降的SBAS技术监测应用研究

InSAR(Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar,InSAR)技术是随着合成孔径雷达发展起来的一种雷达干涉测量新技术,它可获得地表目标点的精确三维空间位置以及细微形变信息。基于雷达干涉测量发展的短基线(Small BAseline Subset,SBAS)干涉测量,可对缓慢地表形变进行高精度的监测。本文以广东省普宁市为实验区,选用2007~2010年间共10景ALOS/PALSAR数据,采用SBAS技术获取了该地区的形变时间序列和平均沉降速率,结果表明普宁市区存在多个严重的沉降漏斗,年最大沉降速率达15cm/a。利用观测时段内两期的水准点观测资料对SBAS时序结果进行验证,对比结果发现两者较差最大为46mm,最小为21mm,表明SBAS技术进行地面沉降监测的可靠性和有效性。     

三峡库水位变化过程中的地壳垂直形变与重力变化监测

监测三峡库水位变化过程中的地壳垂直形变和重力变化,对三峡水库的安全运行和区域地质灾害监测防治等具有重要意义。本文从直接计算、实际测量和综合解算3个方面研究了三峡库水位变化过程中地壳垂直形变和重力变化。基于资源三号卫星影像提取的水体数据,结合水位数据,直接计算了三峡水库蓄放水从145~175m每隔5m的影响,地壳垂直形变最大可达30mm,对重力影响超过20μGal(1Gal=10~(-2) m/s~2)的范围距离长江中心线约2km内。库区较近的巴东CORS站(ES13)能够实际测量到库水位变化过程中的地壳垂直形变。由于目前三峡库区的CORS站和重力台站数量较少,分布不均,还不能满足紧密跟踪三峡库水位变化过程中的监测需求。利用三峡地区26座CORS站和部分重力台站数据,基于负荷形变理论和球谐分析方法,综合解算了库水位变化过程中的地壳垂直形变和重力变化,与实际CORS监测结果一致。通过对比分析发现,基于CORS站网的综合解算,能够有效提升对库水位变化过程中的地壳垂直形变和重力变化的监测能力。     

利用局域复测GPS网研究中国大陆块体现今地壳运动速度场

利用1992年以来我国进行的6项不同规模高精度GPS地壳监测网的资料，采用统一的数据处理策略，重新进行了数据处理，并统一进行了平差，归算到相同的ITRF97坐标框架基准之下，获得了中国前覆最广、测站最多的一个较为完整的、框架统一的GPS地壳运动图像和速度场，并对结果作了初步的地学解释。     

Combining the geodetic models of vertical crustal deformation

Different kinds of analytical models of vertical curstal deformation have both advantages and disadvantages, and are appropriate to different deformation patterns. It is difficult to identify which deformation model is most suitable for a particular deformation area. In order to obtain a more precise and reliable analytical result, the combined model based on forecast theory has been approached. As a result, the fitting ability of single models is significantly improved. The combined model still possesses the same important features as the single models, which enable transferal of the derived crustal deformation information, within or even outside the time span of the data coverage, from geodetic sites to any user-specified locations where geodetic data may not exist. Examples are presented of both numerical simulation and a real-life situation, and the results are analysed in detail to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed methodology. Received: 26 January 1998 / Accepted 14 August 1998     

Trajectory models and reference frames for crustal motion geodesy

We sketch the evolution of station trajectory models used in crustal motion geodesy over the last several decades, and describe some recent generalizations of these models that allow geodesists and geophysicists to parameterize accelerating patterns of displacement in general, and postseismic transient deformation in particular. Modern trajectory models are composed of three sub-models that represent secular trends, annual oscillations, and instantaneous jumps in coordinate time series. Traditionally the trend model invoked constant station velocity. This can be generalized by assuming that position is a polynomial function of time. The trajectory model can also be augmented as needed, by including one or more logarithmic transients in order to account for typical multi-year patterns of postseismic transient motion. Many geodetic and geophysical research groups are using general classes of trajectory model to characterize their crustal displacement time series, but few if any of them are using these trajectory models to define and realize the terrestrial reference frames (RFs) in which their time series are expressed. We describe a global GPS reanalysis program in which we use two general classes of trajectory model, tuned on a station by station basis. We define the network trajectory model as the set of station trajectory models encompassing every station in the network. We use the network trajectory model from the each global analysis to assign prior position estimates for the next round of GPS data processing. We allow our daily orbital solutions to relax so as to maintain their consistency with the network polyhedron. After several iterations we produce GPS time series expressed in a RF similar to, but not identical with   ITRF2008. We find that each iteration produces an improvement in the daily repeatability of our global time series and in the predictive power of our trajectory models.     

武汉九峰地震台重力变化与地壳垂直形变分析

长期的重力变化和地壳形变观测是研究地下物质运动的重要手段。基于武汉九峰地震台2013—2020年的绝对重力和全球卫星导航系统（global navigation satellite system,GNSS）观测数据,计算了长期的重力与地壳垂直形变的变化趋势,并以1年、2年和3年的时间间隔分段,进行线性趋势拟合,分别获得不同时间段的绝对重力年变化率、地壳垂直形变速率以及对应的比值。研究结果表明,武汉九峰地震台长期的重力年变化率为0.479 9 μGal/a,地壳垂直形变速率为-1.2 mm/a, 两者的比值为-0.399 9 μGal/mm,与理论值存在一定的偏差,可能与该区域的地下水活动有关。将不同时间段的重力变化与地壳垂直形变的数据展布在一张图中,发现数据点离散分布在不同区域,由此可初步判断地下物质运动过程,为区域动力学机制解释提供参考。