Decadal interactions between the western tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic Oscillation

The relationship between interdecadal variations of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) in the last 120 years and circulation anomalies related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated in this study. Using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), we confirm observational evidence that variations in the SST gradient in the western tropical Pacific are related to the NAO anomalies on decadal timescale, and may be contributing to the shift towards the positive NAO phase observed in the late 20th century. The role played by the Indian Ocean-NAO teleconnection, advocated in recent studies focused on the last 50 years, is also assessed in the context of the 120-year long record. It is suggested that a positive feedback between the Pacific SST and the hemispheric circulation pattern embedding the decadal NAO signal may act to enhance the internal variability of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system, and justify the stronger teleconnection found in observational data than in SST-forced AGCM experiments.

---

Interaction between equatorially symmetric and asymmetric tropical eastern Pacific SSTs

The third version of the extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) data spanning from 1880 to 2007 was used to investigate the interaction between equatorially symmetric and asymmetric tropical eastern Pacific SSTs. Principal component analysis and wavelet spectrum analysis showed that the asymmetric SST was dominated by an amplitude-modulated annual cycle, while the symmetric SST was a mixture of amplitude-modulated annual cycle and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The symmetric and asymmetric components were significantly correlated, particularly in March and October. In March, when ENSO is usually weak, the interaction between two components is mainly due to the interaction between the amplitude-modulated annual cycles of each component. On the other hand, in October, when ENSO is dominant, the interaction between amplitude-modulated asymmetric annual cycle and ENSO becomes dominant. The interaction in March is partly explained by anomalous southeasterly winds associated with the symmetric SST pattern reducing wind speed over the southeastern Pacific, causing an intensification of the asymmetric SST component. In October, the equatorial asymmetrical development of ENSO causes a significant correlation between the symmetric and asymmetric components.     

Possible relationship between western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity and Arctic Oscillation

This study found that Arctic Oscillation (AO) has a significant influence on tropical cyclone (TC) activities in the western North Pacific during the boreal summer (July, August, and September). During low- (high-) AO years, more TCs formed over east (west) of 150° E, recurved in the east (west), and passed over the midlatitudes (southeast Asian region), including Korea and Japan (South China Sea and south China), compared to the high- (low-) AO years. In particular, the TC passage frequency difference between the two periods showed a dipole-like pattern between the regions of Southeast and Northeast Asia. The differences between these two periods were caused by a stronger anticyclonic circulation located around Korea and Japan during high-AO years. This circulation played a significant role in blocking the movement of TCs toward Korea and Japan during high-AO years. Instead, TCs moved westward toward the SCS and southern China along the easterly and southeasterly steering flow of this anticyclonic circulation. As a result, TC lifetime and intensity were shorter and weaker during high-AO years.     

Decadal change in relationship between western North Pacific tropical cyclone frequency and the tropical Pacific SST

In this study, we examine the relationship between the number of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific and the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) during the main TC season (July–November) for the period of 1965–2006. Results show that there are periods when TC frequency and the tropical Pacific SST are well correlated and periods when the relationship breaks down. Therefore, decadal variation is readily apparent in the relationship between the TC frequency and the SST variations in the tropical Pacific. We further examine the oceanic and atmospheric states in the two periods (i.e., 1979–1989 vs. 1990–2000) when the marked contrast in the correlation between the TC frequency and the tropical Pacific SST is observed. Before 1990, the analysis indicates that oceanic conditions largely influenced anomalous TC frequency, whereas atmospheric conditions had little impact. After 1990, there the reverse appears to be the case, i.e., atmospheric conditions drive anomalous TC frequency and oceanic conditions are relatively unimportant. A role of atmosphere and ocean in relation to the TC development in the western North Pacific changes, which is consistent with the change of the correlations between the TC frequency and the tropical Pacific SST.     

1—3月北极涛动对北半球热带太平洋和大西洋对流活动的可能影响

利用1979—2008年日分辨率的向外长波辐射资料以及NCEP再分析资料,去除ENSO影响后,分析了1—3月北极涛动对热带太平洋和热带大西洋对流活动及降水的可能影响。结果表明北极涛动偏强(弱)时,热带太平洋和大西洋对流活动显著偏强(弱)。北半球热带大洋冬季平均向外长波辐射与北极涛动指数的相关系数存在两个显著负相关区:一个位于中太平洋区,大致包括13°—20°N、160°E—170°W;另外一个位于热带大西洋,显著区覆盖的范围大体包括5°—20°N、15°—70°W。这些区域的降水量也表现出显著的正相关。向外长波辐射、强对流面积指数、强对流强度指数、平均降水量等指标与北极涛动指数的相关均以冬季同期最高,随时间滞后相关迅速减弱。与此对应的对流层低层大气环流也有显著变化,850hPa风场的变化表现为热带太平洋有异常的气旋性环流,气旋中心区与显著强对流和降水异常区一致。而热带大西洋有显著的经向环流辐合和风切变,与异常对流和降水区吻合。海洋模式的模拟结果表明,与北极涛动有关联的海温分布,很大程度上与大气强迫有关,说明热带1—3月降水和对流活动与海温的关联较弱。北极涛动与热带太平洋、大西洋对流和降水活动之间主要是通过大气环流的变动产生联系的。     

Time-frequency characteristics of the relationships between tropical Indo-Pacific SSTs

In this study, several advanced analysis methods are applied to understand the relationships between the Nino-3.4 sea surface temperatures （SST） and the SSTs related to the tropical Indian Ocean Dipole （IOD）. By analyzing a long data record, the authors focus on the time-frequency characteristics of these relationships, and of the structure of IOD. They also focus on the seasonal dependence of those characteristics in both time and frequency domains. Among the Nino-3.4 SST, IOD, and SSTs over the tropical western Indian Ocean （WIO） and eastern Indian Ocean （EIO）, the WIO SST has the strongest annual and semiannual oscillations. While the Nino-3.4 SST has large inter-annual variability that is only second to its annual variability, the IOD is characterized by the largest semiannual oscillation, which is even stronger than its annual oscillation. The IOD is strongly and stably related to the EIO SST in a wide range of frequency bands and in all seasons. However, it is less significantly related to the WIO SST in the boreal winter and spring. There exists a generally weak and unstable relationship between the WIO and EIO SSTs, especially in the biennial and higher frequency bands. The relationship is especially weak in summer and fall, when IOD is apparent, but appears highly positive in winter and spring, when the IOD is unimportantly weak and even disappears. This feature reflects a caution in the definition and application of IOD. The Nino-3.4 SST has a strong positive relationship with the WIO SST in all seasons, mainly in the biennial and longer frequency bands. However, it shows no significant relationship with the EIO SST in summer and fall, and with IOD in winter and spring.     

Negative relationship between Korea landfalling tropical cyclone activity and Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The present study discovered a strong negative correlation between Korea-landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the summer. Thus, the present study selected years that had the highest PDO index (positive PDO years) and years that had the lowest PDO index (negative PDO years) to analyze a mean difference between the two phases in order to determine the reason for the strong negative correlation between the two variables. In the positive PDO years, TCs were mainly generated in the southeastern part of the western North Pacific, and lower TC passage frequency was found in most regions in the mid-latitude in East Asia. Moreover, a slightly weaker TC intensity than that in the negative PDO years was revealed. In order to determine the cause of the TC activity revealed in the positive PDO years, 850 hPa and 500 hPa stream flows were analyzed first. In the mid-latitude region in East Asia, anomalous huge cyclonic circulations were strengthened, while anomalous anticyclonic circulations were strengthened in the low-latitude region. Accordingly, Korea was being influenced by anomalous northwesterlies, which played a role in blocking TCs from moving northward to Korea. The results of analysis on 850 hPa air temperature, precipitation, 600 hPa relative humidity, and sea surface temperature (SST) showed that negative anomalies were strengthened in the northwest region in the western North Pacific while positive anomalies were strengthened in the southeast region. The atmospheric and oceanic environments were related to frequent occurrences of TCs in the southeast region in the western North Pacific during the positive PDO years. All factors of air temperature, precipitation, 600 hPa relative humidity, and SST revealed negative (positive for vertical wind shear) anomalies near Korea, so that atmospheric and oceanic environments were formed that could rapidly weaken TC intensity, even if the TCs moved northward to Korea in the positive PDO years.     

Possible linkage between East Asian summer drought and North Pacific Oscillation

The May North Pacific Oscillation Index and the summer (May and June?CJuly?CAugust??JJA) Effective Drought Index have a strong negative correlation in the East Asian region, particularly in northern China, Korea, and the southwestern regions of Japan (here termed ??Northeast Asia??); this signifies an intensification of the summer drought during positive North Pacific Index (NPI) phase in this region, and the presence of such a phenomenon has been observed in this study. The low-south/high-north anomalous pressure pattern forming in all layers of the troposphere in Northeast Asian region has been a cause of drought. This unusual pressure pattern gives rise to a cold northeasterly and intensifies downward flow and reduces relative humidity. In addition, this cold northeasterly hinders the northward movement of the western North Pacific high and reduces the frequency of tropical cyclones passing through this region, thereby further intensifying drought.     

越南北部夏季降水特征及其与海温的联系

根据1958—1997年越南降水资料和NCEP／NCAR再分析资料，运用小波分析和相关分析等方法分析了越南北部降水特征及其与海温的联系。结果表明，越南北部降水主要集中在夏秋季；越南北部夏秋季降水具有明显的年际、年代际变化特征．并且与热带太平洋海温关系密切。在越南北部夏季多雨年，热带西太平洋海温异常偏高，中东太平洋海温异常偏低；而少雨年，则情况相反。     

Association between tropospheric temperature and tropical cyclone peak intensity over the North Pacific and North Atlantic

台风作为一种灾害性天气,其破坏性大小与自身强度有很大的关系.因此,本项研究利用NCEP-NCAR和MERRA再分析数据,考查了北大西洋,西北太平洋,东北太平洋台风强度峰值与对流层温度的关系.台风强度峰值与大气温度的相关系数,以及极大和极小台风强度峰值下大气温度的差值,共同显示:北大西洋台风强度峰值受到对流层顶低温和对流...     

The influence of tropical Pacific forcing on the Arctic Oscillation

The potential role of tropical Pacific forcing in driving the seasonal variability of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is explored using both observational data and a simple general circulation model (SGCM). A lead–lag regression technique is first applied to the monthly averaged sea surface temperature (SST) and the AO index. The AO maximum is found to be related to a negative SST anomaly over the tropical Pacific three months earlier. A singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis is then performed on the tropical Pacific SST and the sea level pressure (SLP) over the Northern Hemisphere. An AO-like atmospheric pattern and its associated SST appear as the second pair of SVD modes. Ensemble integrations are carried out with the SGCM to test the atmospheric response to different tropical Pacific forcings. The atmospheric response to the linear fit of the model’s empirical forcing associated with the SST variability in the second SVD modes strongly projects onto the AO. Idealized thermal forcings are then designed based on the regression of the seasonally averaged tropical Pacific precipitation against the AO index. Results indicate that forcing anomalies over the western tropical Pacific are more effective in generating an AO-like response while those over the eastern tropical Pacific tend to produce a Pacific-North American (PNA)-like response. The physical mechanisms responsible for the energy transport from the tropical Pacific to the extratropical North Atlantic are investigated using wave activity flux and vorticity forcing formalisms. The energy from the western tropical Pacific forcing tends to propagate zonally to the North Atlantic because of the jet stream waveguide effect while the transport of the energy from the eastern tropical Pacific forcing mostly concentrates over the PNA area. The linearized SGCM results show that nonlinear processes are involved in the generation of the forced AO-like pattern.     

Secular variation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation,the North Pacific Oscillation and climatic jumps in a multi-millennial simulation

Outputs from a 10,000-year simulation with a coupled global climatic model for present climatic conditions have been used to investigate the behaviour of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and related phenomena. The analysis reveals a wide range of temporal variability for these Oscillations, suggesting that observations to date provide only a limited sample of possible outcomes. In addition, the simulation suggests that the current observed phase relation between the PDO and NPO may not be typical of longer-term variability. Climatic jumps appear to be a ubiquitous feature of climatic variability, and while, as observed, the most common interval between such jumps is about 20 years, intervals of up to 100 years occur in the simulation. The probability density functions of the PDO and NPO are very close to Gaussian, with the PDO being represented by an auto-regressive function of order one, while the NPO consisted of white noise. An FFT analysis of PC1 of the PDO revealed periodicities concentrated near 10 years, while for the NPO the principal periodicities were decadal to bidecadal. Global distributions of the distributions of the correlations between PC1 or the NPO and selected climatic variables were similar, and in agreement with observations. These correlations highlight the inter-relationships between these two Oscillations. The above correlations were not necessarily stable in time for a given geographical point, with transitions occurring between positive and negative extremes. Climatic jumps were identified with transitions of both the PDO and NPO, with magnitudes of importance as regards climatic perturbations. Spatial patterns of the changes associated with such jumps have global scales, and the need to consider the implications of these jumps in regard to greenhouse induced climatic change is noted.     

The relationships between tropical cyclone tracks and local SST over the western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone (TC) tracks over the western North Pacific (WNP) during 1949–2007, obtained from China Meteorological Administration/Shanghai Typhoon institute, are classified into three track types. These types are the main pathways by which TCs influence the coast of East Asia. The relationships between local sea surface temperature (SST) in WNP and TC tracks are revealed. Results show that the local SST plays an important role in TC tracks, though the relationships between local SST and the frequencies ...     

Possible relationship between NAO and tropical cyclone genesis frequency in the western North Pacific

This study examined a strong positive correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index during June and the total tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency in the western North Pacific during July and August. To investigate a possible cause for this relation, the mean difference between highest positive NAO years and lowest negative NAO years was analyzed by dividing into when the El Niño and La Niña years were included and when the El Niño and La Niña years were not included.When the El Niño and La Niña years were included, for positive NAO years, the TCs mostly occurred in the northwestern region of tropical and subtropical western Pacific, and showed a pattern that migrate from the sea northeast of the Philippines, pass the East China Sea, and move toward the mid-latitudes of East Asia. In contrast, for negative NAO years, the TCs mostly occurred in the southeastern region of tropical and subtropical western Pacific, and showed a pattern that migrate westward from the sea southeast of the Philippines, pass the South China Sea, and move toward the southern coast of China and Indochinese peninsula. These two different TC migration patterns affect the recurving location of TC, and for positive NAO years, the recurving of TC was averagely found to take place in the further northeast. In addition, the migration patterns also affect the TC intensity, and the TCs of positive NAO years had stronger intensity than the TCs of negative NAO years as sufficient energy can be absorbed from the ocean while moving north in the mid-latitudes of East Asia. The TCs of negative NAO years showed weak intensity as they weaken or disappear shortly while landing on the southern coast of China and Indochinese peninsula. On the other hand, the above result of analysis is also similarly observed when the El Niño and La Niña years were not included.     

冬季西北太平洋热带气旋的生成与热带东风扰动的关系

利用合成技术对1995—2006年冬季(11月—次年2月)生成在西北太平洋上的34个热带气旋(tropicalcyclone,TC)个例进行分析,研究冬季西北太平洋TC生成的大尺度环流特征及其生成机制,结果表明:冬季TC生成的大尺度环流特征型为东风波西传型;北半球冬季对流层低层出现的跨赤道气旋对是冬季北半球TC形成的重要特征;太平洋中部赤道混合Rossby重力波西北传,与强对流中心重合,性质转为"热带低压型扰动",为冬季热带气旋生成提供扰动源。对合成TC初始场的涡动扰动动能的收支分析表明,涡动有效位能和正压不稳定转换为TC形成提供了能量,这两种能量分别与积云对流加热和水平不均匀气流有关。正压不稳定能量转换为动能主要位于对流层中下层,而扰动有效位能的转换主要位于对流层中上层。低层热带东风波动从平均气流中获得正压不稳定能量,并与强积云对流耦合,热力和动力共同作用下形成TC。     

西北太平洋台风活动与大气季节内振荡

本文综合介绍了大气季节内振荡与西北太平洋台风活动关系的最新研究结果。主要内容是:大气MJO的活动对西北太平洋台风的生成有比较明显的调制作用,在MJO的活跃期与非活跃期西北太平洋生成台风数的比例为2:1;而在MJO活跃期,对流中心位于赤道东印度洋(即MJO第2～3位相)与对流中心在西太平洋地区(即MJO第5～6位相)时的比例也为2:1。在MJO的不同位相,西太平洋地区的动力因子和热源分布形势有很明显不同。在第2～3位相,各种因子均呈现出抑制西太平洋地区对流及台风发展的态势;而在第5～6位相则明显促进对流的发生发展。这说明MJO在不断东移的过程中,将影响和改变大气环流形势,最终影响台风的生成。对多台风年与少台风年850 hPa的30～60 d低频动能距平合成分析表明,在多台风年有两个低频动能的大值区,其中最显著的是低频动能正异常位于菲律宾以东15°N以南的西北太平洋地区,此区域正好为季风槽所在的位置。而少台风年的情况与多台风年相反,从阿拉伯海东部经印度半岛、孟加拉湾一直到我国南海地区,都是低频动能的大值区,最大的低频动能中心位于印度半岛和我国南海南部;而菲律宾以东的西北太平洋是低频动能的负距平区,季风槽偏弱,对台风生成发展不利。200 hPa速度势场清楚表明,多台风年(少台风年)在菲律宾以东的西北太平洋上表现为高层辐散(辐合),增强(减弱)该地区的上升气流,有利于(不利于)台风的生成。大气季节内振荡(ISO)对西北太平洋台风路径影响的研究表明,大气ISO)流场对台风路径预报有重要参考意义。其结果表明,台风生成时850 hPa低频气旋(LFC)的正涡度带(特别是最大正涡度线)走向往往预示着台风的未来走向;200 hPa的低频环流形势对台风的路径也有一定的指示作用,与200 hPa低频反气旋(LFAC)相联系的200 hPa强低频气流对台风起着引导气流的作用。     

南极涛动和北半球大气环流异常的联系

使用ECMWF逐日再分析资料分析研究了北半球冬季南极涛动和北半球大气环流异常之间的联系。资料的分析结果表明, 南极涛动和滞后其25～40天位于北大西洋地区的一个弱的类似于北大西洋涛动 (North Atlantic Oscillation, 简称NAO) 的偶极子模态, 以及伴随这一偶极子模态而出现的北半球中纬度纬向风异常之间存在着统计上的联系。处于正 (负) 位相的南极涛动对应着滞后25～40天后, 北大西洋高纬极区出现位势高度负 (正) 异常, 副热带大西洋出现位势高度正 (负) 异常; 同时, 在北半球中高纬度地区(45°N～65°N) 出现西 (东) 风异常, 中低纬度地区(25°N～40°N)出现东 (西) 风异常。文中也对资料分析结果进行了简单的动力学分析, 表明与南极涛动相联系的涡动动量异常是驱动北半球纬向平均纬向风异常的主要原因。     

北极涛动与北大西洋涛动的差异

根据北极涛动和北大西洋涛动指数的时间序列,选取两者差异较大的13个年份进行合成分析。结果表明：除北太平洋地区外,北极涛动与北大西洋涛动差异最显著的区域是西欧-地中海区域和亚洲东北部地区。北极涛动高指数阶段,对流层中层为纬向二波的驻波型,分别对应于极地-欧亚遥相关型和太平洋-北美遥相关型。同时,纬向平均纬向风偶极型使西风急流向极地偏移,与增强的中纬度经圈环流相互作用,引导对流层上层异常信号向下传播,形成高低空耦合机制。进一步分析发现,这种中纬度经圈环流异常和高低空耦合形势的差异主要表现在欧亚大陆地区;在北大西洋区域差异并不显著。     

Relationship between the frequency of tropical cyclones in Taiwan and the Pacific/North American pattern

The frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) in Taiwan during June to October (JJASO) is found to have a strong negative correlation with the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern in the preceding April. In the negative PNA phase, the anomalous cyclonic and the anomalous anticyclonic circulations are intensified at low latitudes and midlatitudes from East Asia to the North Atlantic, respectively, from April to JJASO. Particularly in East Asia, the anomalous southeasterly that converges between the anomalous anticyclone to the east of Japan and the anomalous cyclone to the east of Taiwan plays a decisive role in moving TCs not only to Taiwan, but also to the midlatitude coastal regions of East Asia as a result of the steering flow. In addition, a southwestward extension of a western North Pacific (WNP) high during the positive PNA phase also contributed to a frequent movement of TCs to southern China without traveling north toward the midlatitude regions of East Asia. Due to the difference in the typical tracks of the TC in the WNP according to the PNA phase, the intensity of the TC in the negative PNA phase is stronger than that in the positive PNA phase.