Modeling storm surges associated with super typhoon durian in South China Sea

Super typhoon Durian struck the central Philippines on November 30, 2006 and southern coast of Vietnam on December 5, 2006. The reported maximum wind exceeded 250 km/h, and the central pressure was 904 hPa during the peak of the system. The typhoon brought colossal damage, both in terms of lives and in terms of properties to the Philippines and Vietnam while Thailand and Malaysia were slightly affected. The energy from the high-velocity wind and central pressure drop resulted in the generation of storm surges along the coastal region of the Philippines including its surrounding islands as well as parts of southern Vietnam. In this paper, a numerical 2D model is used to study the oceanic response to the atmospheric forcing by 2006 super typhoon Durian in the coastal regions of the Philippines and Vietnam. The initial study of this model aims to provide some useful insights before it could be used as a coastal disaster prediction system in the region of South China Sea (SCS). The atmospheric forcing for the 2D model, which includes the pressure gradient and the wind field, is generated by an empirical asymmetrical storm model. The simulated results of storm surges due to typhoon Durian at two locations lie in the range of observed data/estimates published by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC).     

A sensitivity study of the WRF model in offshore wind modeling over the Baltic Sea

Accurate wind modeling is important for wind resources assessment and wind power forecasting.To improve the WRF model configuration for the offshore wind modeling over the Baltic Sea,this study per-formed a sensitivity study of the WRF model to multiple model configurations,including domain setup,grid resolution,sea surface temperature,land surface data,and atmosphere-wave coupling.The simu-lated offshore wind was evaluated against LiDAR observations under different wind directions,atmo-spheric stabilities,and sea status.Generally,the simulated wind profiles matched observations,despite systematic underestimations.Strengthening the forcing from the reanalysis data through reducing the number of nested domains played the largest role in improving wind modeling.Atmosphere-wave cou-pling further improved the simulated wind,especially under the growing and mature sea conditions.Increasing the vertical resolution,and updating the sea surface temperature and the land surface infor-mation only had a slight impact,mainly visible during very stable conditions.Increasing the horizontal resolution also only had a slight impact,most visible during unstable conditions.Our study can help to improve the wind resources assessment and wind power forecasting over the Baltic Sea.     

南海海盆盆西峡谷的形态与结构及形成演化

盆西峡谷是南海中建南盆地中东部的一条大型峡谷,整体呈NW向,水深介于2 850~4 300 m,全长约188 km,宽为1.5~14.5 km,起始于中建南盆地,延伸到西南次海盆,对其进行形态、结构和形成演化的研究,为后续西南次海盆浊积扇的研究奠定了基础,对深入了解浊流沉积物的搬运模式提供科学依据.利用高分辨率多波束测深、单道和多道地震的最新资料,研究盆西峡谷的形态特征和结构及形成演化,结果表明盆西峡谷具有"分段性"特征,剖面形态从WN向ES依次表现为上段U型、中上段V型、中下段下V上U型和下段U型4段形态;上段以沉积作用为主,发育多期下切河道充填沉积,厚度可达1 200 m;中上段以侵蚀-沉积过渡作用为主,发育浊积水道砂体;中下段以冲刷作用为主,发育内堤岸和块体流沉积;下段发育块体流和滑塌体沉积.研究表明,盆西峡谷的形成受古地貌条件、侵蚀-沉积作用、海平面变化、构造运动和岩浆活动等多方面的影响,其中侵蚀-沉积作用、断裂活动和海平面变化为主控因素.揭示出盆西峡谷沉积演化可分为3个演化阶段:中中新世的峡谷蕴育阶段、晚中新世的峡谷侵蚀-充填阶段和上新世-第四纪的峡谷"回春"阶段.      

Cenozoic Volcanism in South China Sea and Its Vicinity and South China Sea Spreading

The rock series, rock types and Sr-Nd isotopic dating of the Cenozoic volcanic rocks in the South China Sea are similar to those in its vicinity. On the basis of the spreading age of the South China Sea, the Cenozoic volcanic rocks are divided into three stages: the pre-spreading stage, the spreading stage and the post-spreading stage. The deep process characteristics of the asthenosphere and lithosphere may be inferred from the study on primary basaltic magma. The top layers of the asthenosphere both in the spreading stage and in the pre-spreading stage are closer to the earth surface than that in the post-spreading stage. From the pre-spreading stage to the spreading stage, the top layer of the asthenosphere decreased in depth, while the amount of interstitial partial melts increased. The evolution of the primary basaltic magma shows a progressive evolution sequence of the rifting volcanism and a faster lithospheric spreading velocity. From the spreading stage to the post-spreading stage, the top layer of the asthenosphere gradually increased in depth, but the amount of interstitial partial melts decreased. The evolution of primary basaltic magma shows a retrogressive evolution sequence of the rifting volcanism and a gradual decrease in the lithospheric spreading velocity. The depth recognized by the study on the Cenozoic volcanism demonstrates the deep environment for the formation and evolution of the South China Sea.     

Characteristics of tropical cyclones generated in South China Sea and their landfalls over China and Vietnam

Natural Hazards - The work examines the potential causative link between the flow of charged particles that are coming from the Sun and hurricanes. For establishing eventual link, the method of...     

中国南海钙质砂蠕变-应力-时间四参数数学模型

聚氨酯高聚物注浆可显著提高珊瑚钙质砂地基承载力,但目前缺乏模型准确描述注高聚物浆液加固后珊瑚钙质砂地基的蠕变。本文中推导了改进村山流变模型的理论公式,对复合体蠕变进行分段描述,采用一个与应力大小及时间有关的反比例函数代替传统村山流变模型中的黏滞系数。设计了室内蠕变单轴压缩试验,分别在100 kPa,200 kPa和400 kPa轴向应力下测定并建立了珊瑚钙质砂-高聚物复合体的蠕变量与蠕变时间的关系。试验结果表明：改进村山流变模型可有效描述珊瑚钙质砂-高聚物复合体蠕变全过程,当蠕变时间小于临界时间时,传统村山流变模型有效;当蠕变时间大于临界蠕变时间后,传统村山流变模型偏差随着时间增长而增大,而改进村山流变模型预测值与实测值具有很好一致性;复合体所处的应力水平越高,蠕变量越大,发生加速蠕变的时间也越早。

     

南海华南陆缘中生界层序地层模式与海平面变化

华南陆缘中生界地层以广东省出露最广,这套地层为陆源碎屑沉积岩,局部为火山岩。上三叠统—上白垩统划分为2个巨层序、7个超层序和15个层序。沉积充填序列展示出本地区经历了海侵-海退过程,沉积环境由海相转化为陆相环境。3个级别的海平面变化控制了层序、超层序和巨层序的发育。粤中--粤东地区中生界发育的Ⅲ级层序可归纳出3种类型:浅水型、深水型和湖盆型;浅水型层序又可以分为浅水Ⅰ型和浅水Ⅱ型。     

南海海-气通量交换研究进展

1998年的"南海季风试验(SCSMEX)"已经过去10年了,SCSMEX启动的南海海-气通量试验研究也有10个年头.在SCSMEX和国家自然科学基金面上项目"南海季风爆发期近海面层通量观测和湍流结构的观测研究"支持下,10年来在西沙实施了3次(1998年、2000年、2002年)海-气通量观测试验,开展了试验资料分析研究,重点是西南季风爆发前后海-气通量交换过程研究,辐射通量、感热通量、潜热通量、动量通量随天气条件的变化研究,海-气通量日变化,通量交换系数以及通量变化对低层大气、上层海洋的影响研究.对10年来南海通量研究作一回顾,对未来的通量观测研究计划特别是2008"亚洲季风年"西沙通量观测提出一些建议.     

南海海—气通量交换研究进展

1998年的“南海季风试验（SCSMEX）”已经过去10年了,SCSMEX启动的南海海—气通量试验研究也有10个年头。在SCSMEX和国家自然科学基金面上项目“南海季风爆发期近海面层通量观测和湍流结构的观测研究”支持下,10年来在西沙实施了3次（1998年、2000年、2002年）海—气通量观测试验,开展了试验资料分析研究,重点是西南季风爆发前后海—气通量交换过程研究,辐射通量、感热通量、潜热通量、动量通量随天气条件的变化研究,海—气通量日变化,通量交换系数以及通量变化对低层大气、上层海洋的影响研究。对10年来南海通量研究作一回顾,对未来的通量观测研究计划特别是2008“亚洲季风年”西沙通量观测提出一些建议。     

南海北部陆架西区磷灰石裂变径迹的分析

文中将磷灰石裂变径迹分析用于南海北部陆架西区地热演化研究,报道了位于北部湾盆地、莺琼盆地和珠三拗陷的３口钻井１３个样品磷灰石径迹的测定结果,并依之研究了乌１６－１－２井与莺１井的热演化史的片断,得出乌１６－１－２井区在３０Ｍａ以来地温演化是平稳的,未受过重大热事件的扰动,而莺１井区则曾经历过抬升事件的论断。对所得结论借助于径迹理论模型计算予以检验,肯定了径迹分析用于南海陆架盆地热演化研究的意义,指出在采取岩样问题上有待改进之处。     

West North Pacific typhoon track patterns and their potential connection to Tibetan Plateau snow cover

The spatial characteristics and temporal variability of the West North Pacific (WNP) typhoon tracks are studied by analyzing the spatial pattern and temporal variability of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the WNP typhoon track density function (TTDF) from 1945 to 2004. The results show that WNP typhoon tracks exhibit three principal EOF Modes. The first EOF Mode represents the contrasting “active” versus “inactive” typhoons defined by the overall frequency and life span of the typhoons that develop in the WNP basin. The second EOF shows a north–south dipole Mode in the TTDF depicting a seesaw pattern in typhoon frequency between Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia. The third EOF describes an east–west dipole Mode in TTDF depicting a zonal seesaw pattern between typhoons that tend to make landfalls in East Asia and typhoons that tend to stay away from the East Asia landmasses. Further analysis of the EOF time series of the WNP TTDF indicates that an important climatic factor associated with the WNP typhoon activity is the snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which is also correlated with the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM). Thus, a mechanism linking the TP snow cover and the WNP typhoon activity is the response of the EASM in the WNP region to the TP snow cover, and the subsequent effect of EASM on the development and steering of the WNP typhoons.     

中国南海钙质砂蠕变-应力-时间四参数数学模型

钙质砂是一种海洋生物沉积形成的具有特殊结构和力学性质的岩土材料,是我国南海岛礁吹填工程的物源材料。为进一步了解其蠕变特性,采用三轴流变仪对取自中国南海某岛礁的钙质砂进行不同围压条件下的长期蠕变试验研究。试验结果表明,在小于其破坏强度的恒定应力作用下,饱和钙质砂发生衰减蠕变,随时间增加,变形不断增加,但变形速率不断减小,直至变形稳定,所受应力越大则达到变形稳定所需时间越长,且蠕变变形量与所受偏应力正相关、与有效围压反相关。应力-应变与应变-时间均为非线性关系。试验研究发现,可采用幂函数对钙质砂蠕变应变-时间进行数学描述,基于试验结果,提出了一种蠕变应变与时间、偏应力和有效围压相关的四参数新的蠕变模型,可以对钙质砂的蠕变过程进行较好的数学描述;与经典的Mesri蠕变模型相比,所提出的数学蠕变模型不需要开展常规三轴压缩试验确定破坏时的峰值偏应力,减少了试验工作,具有一定的优势。     

中国大陆和南海卫星磁异常的初步解释

中国境内存在6个明显的卫星磁异常,其中4个分布在大陆,2个分布在南海.塔里木、四川、松辽和南海曾母盆地地区磁性层的下界面在莫霍面之下,上地幔顶部约10 km厚的一层呈强磁性,磁化强度约为2 A/m;西藏高原地壳呈弱磁性,磁性层厚度小于30 km,磁化强度约为0.66 A/m,而该区莫霍面深度约为60～70 km.因此,Wasilewski等提出的"莫霍面是一个磁性界面"的论断,不能普遍成立.     

Numerical Analysis and Simulation Experiment of Lithospheric Thermal Structures in the South China Sea and the Western Pacific

The asthenosphere upwelled on a large scale in the western Pacific and South China Sea during the Cenozoic,which formed strong upward throughflow and caused the thermal structure to be changed obviously.The mathematical analysis has demonstrated that the upward throughflow velocity may have varied from 3×1011 to 6×1012 m/s.From the relationship between the lithospheric thickness and the conductive heat flux,the Hthospherie heat flux in the western Pacific should be above 30 mW/m2,which is consistent with the observed data.The huge low-speed zone within the upper mantle of the marginal sea in the western Pacific reflects that the upper mantle melts partially,flows regionally in the regional stress field,forms the upward heat flux at its bottom,and causes the change of the lithospheric thermal structure in the region.The numerical simulation result of the expansion and evolution in the South China Sea has demonstrated that in the early expansion,the upward throughflow velocity was relatively fast,and the effect that it had on the thickness of the lithosphere was relatively great,resulting in the mid-ocean basin expanding rapidly.After the formation of the ocean basin in the South China Sea,the upward throughflow velocity decreased,but the conductive heat flux was relatively high,which is close to the actual situation.Therefore,from the heat transfer point of view,this article discusses how the upward heat flux affects the lithospheric thermal structure in the western Pacific and South China Sea.The conclusions show that the upward heat throughflow at the bottom of the llthospheric mantle resulted in the tectonic deformation at the shallow crust.The intensive uplifts and rifts at the crust led to the continent cracks and the expansion in the South China Sea.     

东南沿海及南海新生代火山作用与南海的形成演化

中国东南沿海地区和南海海域新生代火山岩系列、类型和SrNd同位素特征十分相似,具有板内玄武岩的特征。根据南海扩张时代,将新生代的火山岩划分为扩张期前、扩张期和扩张期后3大阶段,并利用原生岩浆推导了软流圈岩石圈的一些深部作用特征。扩张期前（接近扩张期）和扩张期软流圈顶部埋深较浅。从扩张期前（接近扩张期）到扩张期软流圈顶部埋深变浅,隙间熔浆增加,原生岩浆的演化具有前进式裂谷火山作用的演化序列,岩石圈扩张速率变大。从扩张期到扩张期后（直至第四纪）,软流圈顶部埋深逐渐变深,隙间熔浆减少,原生岩浆的演化表现出后退式裂谷火山作用的序列,岩石圈扩张速率逐渐变慢。新生代火山作用显示出的深部作用特征与南海的扩张和闭合一致,这为我们提供了南海形成和演化的深部作用证据。     

Sensitivity of MM5 and WRF mesoscale model predictions of surface winds in a typhoon to planetary boundary layer parameterizations

Sea surface winds and coastal winds, which have a significant influence on the ocean environment, are very difficult to predict. Although most planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations have demonstrated the capability to represent many meteorological phenomena, little attention has been paid to the precise prediction of winds at the lowest PBL level. In this study, the ability to simulate sea winds of two widely used mesoscale models, fifth-generation mesoscale model (MM5) and weather research and forecasting model (WRF), were compared. In addition, PBL sensitivity experiments were performed using Medium-Range Forecasts (MRF), Eta, Blackadar, Yonsei University (YSU), and Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ) during Typhoon Ewiniar in 2006 to investigate the optimal PBL parameterizations for predicting sea winds accurately. The horizontal distributions of winds were analyzed to discover the spatial features. The time-series analysis of wind speed from five sensitivity experimental cases was compared by correlation analysis with surface observations. For the verification of sea surface winds, QuikSCAT satellite 10-m daily mean wind data were used in root-mean-square error (RMSE) and bias error (BE) analysis. The MRF PBL using MM5 produced relatively smaller wind speeds, whereas YSU and MYJ using WRF produced relatively greater wind speeds. The hourly surface observations revealed increasingly strong winds after 0300 UTC, July 10, with most of the experiments reproducing observations reliably. YSU and MYJ using WRF showed the best agreements with observations. However, MRF using MM5 demonstrated underestimated winds. The conclusions from the correlation analysis and the RMSE and BE analysis were compatible with the above-mentioned results. However, some shortcomings were identified in the improvements of wind prediction. The data assimilation of topographical data and asynoptic observations along coast lines and satellite data in sparsely observed ocean areas should make it possible to improve the accuracy of sea surface wind predictions.     

Evaluation of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model over Guyana

In the present study, diagnostic studies were undertaken using station-based rainfall data sets of selected stations of Guyana to understand the variability of rainfall. The multidecadal variation in rainfall of coastal station Georgetown and inland station Timehri has shown that the rainfall variability was less during the May–July (20–30%) of primary wet season compared to the December--January (60–70%) of second wet season. The rainfall analysis of Georgetown based on data series from 1916 to 2007 shows that El Niño/La Niña has direct relation with monthly mean rainfall of Guyana. The impact is more predominant during the second wet season December--January. A high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model was made operational to generate real-time forecasts up to 84 h based on 00 UTC global forecast system (GFS), NCEP initial condition. The model real-time rainfall forecast during July 2010 evaluation has shown a reasonable skill of the forecast model in predicting the heavy rainfall events and major circulation features for day-to-day operational forecast guidance. In addition to the operational experimental forecast, as part of model validation, a few sensitivity experiments are also conducted with the combination of two cloud cumulus (Kain--Fritsch (KF) and Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ)) and three microphysical schemes (Ferrier et al. WSM-3 simple ice scheme and Lin et al.) for heavy rainfall event occurred during 28–30 May 2010 over coastal Guyana and tropical Hurricane ‘EARL’ formed during 25 August–04 September 2010 over east Caribbean Sea. It was observed that there are major differences in the simulations of heavy rainfall event among the cumulus schemes, in spite of using the same initial and boundary conditions and model configuration. Overall, it was observed that the combination of BMJ and WSM-3 has shown qualitatively close to the observed heavy rainfall event even though the predicted amounts are less. In the case of tropical Hurricane ‘EARL’, the forecast track in all the six experiments based on 00 UTC of 28 August 2010 initial conditions for the forecast up to 84 h has shown that the combination of KF cumulus and Ferrier microphysics scheme has shown less track errors compared to other combinations. The overall average position errors for all the six experiments taken together work out to 103 km in 24, 199 km in 48, 197 km in 72 and 174 km in 84 h.     

南海北部灾害地质稳定度评价模型

海洋经济的开发需要了解海洋灾害地质环境状况。海洋工程设计与建设需要考虑海底工程地质条件,特别是国家宏观决策更需要了解海洋地质环境的基本特征以及灾害地质类型、分布规律。灾害地质综合评价可以基于灾害地质分区进行,灾害地质综合评价的目标是比较不同分区的灾害地质稳定性并给出定量评价。文中就南海北部灾害地质稳定性提出了网格化加权统计模型。该模型结合专家智能的参与,体现了不同种类灾害地质因素的等级差别。另外还考虑到不同种类灾害地质因素之间的空间分布差异性及同类灾害地质因素的空间分布差异性。根据模型计算结果将评价区划分为稳定区、过渡区及危险区。这种划分通过与南海北部灾害地质稳定性定性描述对比。证明该模型在全面地定量化反映南海北部的地质环境状况方面是实用的。由于模型建立过程中各灾害因素权重分值的设定完全依赖于专家智能,因此,今后应当致力于更精确地确定权重分值。     

南海西纳土纳盆地含油气系统分析与勘探前景预测

西纳土纳盆地是南海重要的含油气盆地之一。根据含油气系统“从源岩到圈闭”的核心思想,本文以盆地油气田的最新资料为基础,结合盆地构造-沉积演化历程,运用石油地质综合研究方法,对盆地内主要含油气系统进行分析与划分,且在空间上圈定含油气系统展布范围。在此基础上,研究不同含油气系统的基本特征,深入剖析油气分布规律和主控因素,探讨未来盆地的油气勘探前景及重要勘探领域。研究表明,西纳土纳盆地发育4套含油气系统,Belut-Gabus/Arang/Belut （·）含油气系统和K/J-Arang （·）含油气系统是最重要的含油气系统,分别富集了盆地内46.1%和45.0%的油气可采储量。区域上,盆地的油气主要分布于Anambas地堑和Penyu次盆东部;层系上,油气主要储集于上渐新统和下中新统;油气藏类型上,油气富集于挤压背斜和披覆背斜等构造型油气藏中。油气分布规律的主要控制因素是主力烃源岩展布、区域盖层与油气运移路径、反转挤压和基底隆升运动。综合分析认为,Penyu-Penyu （·）含油气系统具有较大的勘探潜力,储层砂体预测和凹陷油气优势运移通道研究是该含油气系统的未来勘探重点。