Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclogenesis over the North Indian Ocean

Over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and particularly over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), the post-monsoon season from October to December (OND) are known to produce tropical cyclones, which cause damage to life and property over India and many neighbouring countries. The variability of frequency of cyclonic disturbances (CDs) during OND season is found to be associated with variability of previous large-scale features during monsoon season from June to September, which is used to develop seasonal forecast model of CDs frequency over the BoB and NIO based on principal component regression (PCR). Six dynamical/thermodynamical parameters during previous June–August, viz., (i) sea surface temperature (SST) over the equatorial central Pacific, (ii) sea level pressure (SLP) over the southeastern equatorial Indian Ocean, (iii) meridional wind over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean at 850 hPa, (iv) strength of upper level easterly, (v) strength of monsoon westerly over North Indian Ocean at 850 hPa, and (vi) SST over the northwest Pacific having significant and stable relationship with CDs over BoB in subsequent OND season are used in PCR model for a training period of 40 years (1971–2010) and the latest four years (2011–2014) are used for validation. The PCR model indicates highly significant correlation coefficient of 0.77 (0.76) between forecast and observed frequency of CD over the BoB (NIO) for the whole period of 44 years and is associated with the root mean square error and mean absolute error ≤ 1 CD. With respect to the category forecast of CD frequency over BoB and NIO, the Hit score is found to be about 63% and the Relative Operating Curves (ROC) for above and below normal forecast is found to be having much better forecast skill than the climatology. The PCR model performs very well, particularly for the above and below normal CD year over the BoB and the NIO, during the test period from 2011 to 2014.     

Validation of a satellite-based cyclogenesis technique over the North Indian Ocean

Indian region is severely affected by the tropical cyclones (TCs) due to the long coast line of about 7500 km. Hence, whenever any low level circulation (LLC) forms over the Indian Seas, the prediction of its intensification into a TC is very essential for the management of TC disaster. Satellite Application Centre (SAC) of Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), Ahmedabad, has developed a technique to predict TCs based on scatterometer-derived winds from the polar orbiting satellite, QuikSCAT and Oceansat-II. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has acquired the technique and verified it for the years 2010–2013 for operational use. The model is based on the concept of analogs of the sea surface wind distribution at the stage of LLC or vortex (T1.0) as per Dvorak’s classifications, which eventually leads to cyclogenesis (T2.5). The results indicate that the developed model could predict cyclogenesis with a probability of detection of 61% and critical success index of 0.29. However, it shows high over-prediction of the model is better over the Bay of Bengal than over Arabian Sea and during post-monsoon season (September–December) than in pre-monsoon season (March–June).     

Probabilistic assessment of tropical cyclones’ extreme wind speed in the Bay of Bengal: implications for future cyclonic hazard

Natural Hazards - Tropical cyclones (TCs) of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) cause catastrophic loss over the coasts at the time of landfall in India, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka. To strengthen...     

Customization of WRF-ARW model with physical parameterization schemes for the simulation of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean

The convection and planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes play significant role in the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs). Several convection and PBL parameterization schemes incorporate these processes in the numerical weather prediction models. Therefore, a systematic intercomparison of performance of parameterization schemes is essential to customize a model. In this context, six combinations of physical parameterization schemes (2 PBL Schemes, YSU and MYJ, and 3 convection schemes, KF, BM, and GD) of WRF-ARW model are employed to obtain the optimum combination for the prediction of TCs over North Indian Ocean. Five cyclones are studied for sensitivity experiments and the out-coming combination is tested on real-time prediction of TCs during 2008. The tracks are also compared with those provided by the operational centers like NCEP, ECMWF, UKMO, NCMRWF, and IMD. It is found that the combination of YSU PBL scheme with KF convection scheme (YKF) provides a better prediction of intensity, track, and rainfall consistently. The average RMSE of intensity (13?hPa in CSLP and 11?m?s^?1 in 10-m wind), mean track, and landfall errors is found to be least with YKF combination. The equitable threat score (ETS) of YKF combination is more than 0.2 for the prediction of 24-h accumulated rainfall up to 125?mm. The vertical structural characteristics of cyclone inner core also recommend the YKF combination for Indian seas cyclones. In the real-time prediction of 2008 TCs, the 72-, 48-, and 24-h mean track errors are 172, 129, and 155?km and the mean landfall errors are 125, 73, and 66?km, respectively. Compared with the track of leading operational agencies, the WRF model is competing in 24?h (116?km error) and 72?h (166?km) but superior in 48-h (119?km) track forecast.     

SPH-based simulation of flow process of a landslide at Hongao landfill in China

The cyclones over Bay of Bengal (BoB) have varied socio-economic impacts and meteorological importance. There are considerable uncertainties in predicting the track and intensity of cyclonic systems in the BoB. The present study examines the cyclogenesis characteristics over the BoB and addresses the regional impacts and their importance in terms of intensification of cyclones. An analysis of cyclone track data from 1971–2013 reveals that the cyclones generated in Andaman Sea (a regional sea of BoB) and propagating through central BoB sustain maximum life time. Furthermore, within the BoB, the cyclones originated from Andaman Sea are the most intensified and characterized by highest cyclogenesis potential index. Interestingly, we have found that higher value of mid-tropospheric relative humidity over Andaman Sea during the cyclone period is enhancing the cyclone’s intensity. Climatologically also the Andaman Sea is dominated by higher values of mid-tropospheric relative humidity compared to other regions of BoB. There is no significant distinction between Andaman Sea and rest of the BoB for other meteorological and oceanic parameters that supports cyclogenesis. Climatologically dominant east–west asymmetry in mid-tropospheric relative humidity is enhancing the intensity of cyclones from Andaman Sea. The results will be helpful in understanding the processes of cyclone intensification and useful in the statistical and dynamical prediction of cyclones.     

Intensity of tropical cyclones during pre- and post-monsoon seasons in relation to accumulated tropical cyclone heat potential over Bay of Bengal

The aim of the present study is to understand the impact of oceanic heat potential in relation to the intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) in the Bay of Bengal during the pre-monsoon (April–May) and post-monsoon (October–November) cyclones for the period 2006–2010. To accomplish this, the two-layer gravity model (TLGM) is employed to estimate daily tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) utilizing satellite altimeter data, satellite sea surface temperature (SST), and a high-resolution comprehensive ocean atlas developed for Indian Ocean, subsequently validated with in situ ARGO profiles. Accumulated TCHP (ATCHP) is estimated from genesis to the maximum intensity of cyclone in terms of minimum central pressure along their track of all the cyclones for the study period using TLGM generated TCHP and six-hourly National Centre for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data. Similarly, accumulated sea surface heat content (ASSHC) is estimated using satellite SST. In this study, the relationship between ATCHP and ASSHC with the central pressure (CP) which is a function of TC intensity is developed. Results reveal a distinct relationship between ATCHP and CP during both the seasons. Interestingly, it is seen that requirement of higher ATCHP during pre-monsoon cyclones is required to attain higher intensity compared to post-monsoon cyclones. It is mainly attributed to the presence of thick barrier layer (BL) resulting in higher enthalpy fluxes during post-monsoon period, where as such BL is non-existent during pre-monsoon period.     

Impact of satellite observed microwave SST on the simulation of tropical cyclones

The impact of realistic representation of sea surface temperature (SST) on the numerical simulation of track and intensity of tropical cyclones formed over the north Indian Ocean is studied using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. We have selected two intense tropical cyclones formed over the Bay of Bengal for studying the SST impact. Two different sets of SSTs were used in this study: one from TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) satellite and other is the weekly averaged Reynold’s SST analysis from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). WRF simulations were conducted using the Reynold’s and TMI SST as model boundary condition for the two cyclone cases selected. The TMI SST which has a better temporal and spatial resolution showed sharper gradient when compared to the Reynold’s SST. The use of TMI SST improved the WRF cyclone intensity prediction when compared to that using Reynold’s SST for both the cases studied. The improvements in intensity were mainly due to the improved prediction of surface latent and sensible heat fluxes. The use of TMI SST in place of Reynold’s SST improved cyclone track prediction for Orissa super cyclone but slightly degraded track prediction for cyclone Mala. The present modeling study supports the well established notion that the horizontal SST gradient is one of the major driving forces for the intensification and movement of tropical cyclones over the Indian Ocean.     

Characteristics of certain surface meteorological parameters in relation to the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon

With an objective to understand the influence of surface marine meteorological parameters in relation to the extreme monsoon activity over the Indian sub-continent leading to flood/drought, a detailed analysis of the sea level pressure over the Southern Hemisphere and various surface meteorological parameters over the Indian seas is carried out. The present study using the long term data sets (Southern Hemispheric Sea Level Pressure Analysis; Comprehensive Ocean Atmospheric Data Set over the Indian Seas; Surface Station Climatology Data) clearly indicates that the sea surface temperature changes over the south eastern Pacific (El Ninõ/La Niña) have only a moderate impact (not exceeding 50% reliability) on the Indian summer monsoon activity. On the other hand, the sea level pressure anomaly (SOI) over Australia and the south Pacific has a reasonably high degree of significance (more than 70%) with the monsoon activity over India. However, these two parameters (SLP and SST) do not show any significant variability over the Indian seas in relation to the summer monsoon activity. Over the Indian seas, the parameters which are mainly associated with the convective activity such as cloud cover, relative humidity and the surface wind were found to have a strong association with the extreme monsoon activity (flood/drought) and thus the net oceanic heat loss over the Indian seas provides a strong positive feed-back for the monsoon activity over India.     

Comparison of AMSR-2 wind speed and sea surface temperature with moored buoy observations over the Northern Indian Ocean

The Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) is unique due to seasonal reversal of wind patterns, the formation of vortices and eddies which make satellite observations arduous. The veracity of sea surface wind (SSW) and sea surface temperature (SST) products of sun-synchronous AMSR-2 satellite are compared with high-temporal moored buoy observations over the NIO. The two year-long (2013–2014) comparisons reveal that the root-mean-square-error (RMSE) of AMSR-2 SST and SSW is \(<0.4{^{\circ }}\hbox {C}\) and \(<1.5\hbox { ms}^{-1}\), respectively, which are within the error range prescribed for the AMSR-2 satellite (\(\pm 0.8{^{\circ }}\hbox {C}\), \(\pm 1.5\hbox { ms}^{-1})\). The SST–wind relation is analyzed using data both from the buoy and satellite. As a result, the low-SST is associated with low-wind condition (positive slope) in the northern part of the Bay of Bengal (BoB), while low SST values are associated with high wind conditions (negative slope) over the southern BoB. Moreover, the AMSR-2 displayed larger slope for SST–wind relation and could be mainly due to overestimation of SST and underestimation of wind as compared to the buoy. The AMSR-2 SSW exhibited higher error during post-monsoon followed by monsoon season and could be attributed to the high wind conditions associated with intense oceanic vortices. The study suggests that the AMSR-2 products are reliable and can be used in tropical air–sea interactions, meso-scale features, and weather and climate studies.     

An index to assess the propensity of landfall in Australia of a tropical cyclone

Every year, Australian oceans experience the genesis of many tropical cyclones (TCs). About 40 percent of these make landfall. Because of the enormous difference in impacts between landfalling and non-landfalling TCs on coastal communities, the benefits would be enormous if it were possible to capture early the potentiality of landfall of a TC that has undergone genesis. Published literature identifies many factors such as location, warm sea surface temperature above 26 °C, conditional instability and high relative humidity in the middle troposphere and low vertical wind shear for the genesis of cyclones. Some of these factors could hold information about the potentiality of landfall while a TC is forming. An investigation into these factors actually revealed that a landfall potential index can be developed that can capture the potentiality of making a landfall. An attractive feature of this index is that it uses values at the time and location of genesis, providing a long and useful lead time. Furthermore, it is made into a dimensionless number, which makes for easy comprehension and interpretation.     

Tropical cyclone activity in global warming scenario

Research efforts focused on assessing the potential for changes in tropical cyclone activity in the greenhouse-warmed climate have progressed since the IPCC assessment in 1996. Vulnerability to tropical cyclones becoming more pronounced due to the fastest population growth in tropical coastal regions makes it practically important to explore possible changes in tropical cyclone activity due to global warming. This paper investigates the tropical cyclone activity over whole globe and also individually over six different ocean basins. The parameters like storm frequency, storm duration, maximum intensity attained and location of formation of storm have been examined over the past 30-year period from 1977 to 2006. Of all, the north Atlantic Ocean shows a significant increasing trend in storm frequency and storm days, especially for intense cyclones. Lifetime of intense tropical cyclones over south Indian Ocean has been increased. The intense cyclonic activity over north Atlantic, south-west Pacific, north and south Indian Ocean has been increased in recent 15 years as compared to previous 15 years, whereas in the east and west-north Pacific it is decreased, instead weak cyclone activity has been increased there. Examination of maximum intensity shows that cyclones are becoming more and more intense over the south Indian Ocean with the highest rate. The study of the change in the cyclogenesis events in the recent 15 years shows more increase in the north Atlantic. The Arabian Sea experiences increase in the cyclogenesis in general, whereas Bay of Bengal witnesses decrease in these events. Shrinking of cyclogenesis region occurs in the east-north Pacific and south-west Pacific, whereas expansion occurs in west-north Pacific. The change in cyclogenesis events and their spatial distribution in association with the meteorological parameters like sea surface temperature (SST), vertical wind shear has been studied for Indian Ocean. The increase in SST and decrease in wind shear correspond to increase in the cyclogenesis events and vice versa for north Indian Ocean; however, for south Indian Ocean, it is not one to one.     

Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon (October–December) season

In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the relationship between summer monsoon rainfall (June–September) and the total number of depressions, cyclones and severe cyclones (TNDC) over Bay of Bengal during the post-monsoon (October–December) season. The seasonal rainfall of the subdivisions (located in south India) (referred as rainfall index – RI), is positively and significantly correlated (r=0.59; significant at >99% level) with the TNDC during the period, 1984–2013. By using the first differences (current season minus previous season), the correlations are enhanced and a remarkably high correlation of 0.87 is observed between TNDC and RI for the recent period, 1993–2013. The average seasonal genesis potential parameter (GPP) showed a very high correlation of 0.84 with the TNDC. A very high correlation of 0.83 is observed between GPP and RI for the period, 1993–2013. The relative vorticity and mid-tropospheric relative humidity are found to be the dominant terms in GPP. The GPP was 3.5 times higher in above (below) normal RI in which TNDC was 4 (2). It is inferred that RI is playing a key role in TNDC by modulating the environmental conditions (low level vorticity and relative humidity) over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season which could be seen from the very high correlation of 0.87 (which explains 76% variability in TNDC). For the first time, we show that RI is a precursor for the TNDC over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season. Strong westerlies after the SW monsoon season transport moisture over the subdivisions towards Bay of Bengal due to cyclonic circulation. This circulation favours upward motion and hence transport moisture vertically to mid-troposphere which causes convective instability and this in turn favour more number of TNDC, under above-normal RI year.     

Climatic Characteristics of Influencing China Binary Tropical Cyclones

Based on the definition of Binary Tropical Cyclones (BTCs), the definition of influencing china binary tropical cyclones (ICBTCs) was proposed. During the BTCs period, if at least one of the two tropical cyclones causes precipitation over the mainland or one of the two largest islands-Hainan and Taiwan of China, the BTC is called ICBTC. Then, based on daily precipitation data and the tropical cyclone best track data during 1960-2017, this study analyzed the climatic characteristics of ICBTCs using the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique (OSAT) and the above definitions. First, a total of 255 pairs of ICBTCs, which accounted for 60.6% of the total number of BTCs over the Western North Pacific, occurred with an annual average of 4.4. Annual frequency of ICBTCs showed a significant decreasing trend during 1960-2017. The longest duration of ICBTCs was 10 days, while durations concentrated in 1 day, 2 days and 3 days, accounting for 18.8%, 29.4% and 24.3%, respectively. In terms of geographical distribution, the ICBTCs mainly occurred over the range of 112°~138°E, 12°~30°N, with frequent zones in the oceans around the northern Philippines. In addition, both annual mean frequency and precipitation of the ICBTCs decrease from the southeast coast areas to the northwest inland regions, with severely-affected areas being the Taiwan Island, the Southeast Coast and the South Coast, and the most-severely-affected area being the Taiwan Island. Further analyses reveal that the average position of the two TCs on the maximum daily precipitation day during the ICBTCs period show an east-west distribution pattern, with the western TCs and the eastern TCs locating in the southwest wind water vapor channel of the East Asian Summer Monsoon and the warm-wet air flow of the southeast-wind on the southwest side of the subtropical high. This situation is beneficial to the western TCs obtaining water vapor from the southwest wind water vapor channel, and to the eastern TCs conveying water vapor to the western TCs, and then as a result, to the heavy rainfall over the Taiwan Island, the Southeast and the South Coasts of China caused by the western TCs.     

Chemical characteristics of aerosols in MABL of Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea during spring inter-monsoon: A comparative study

The chemical composition of aerosols in the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL) of Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea (AS) has been studied during the spring and inter-monsoon (March-May 2006) based on the analysis of water soluble constituents (Na⁺, NH ₄ ⁺ , K⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, Cl^?, NO ₃ ^? and SO ₄ ^2? ), crustal elements (Al, Fe, and Ca) and carbonaceous species (EC, OC). The total suspended particulates (TSP) ranged from 5.2 to 46.6 μg m^?3 and 8.2 to 46.9 μg m^?3 during the sampling transects in the BoB and AS respectively. The water-soluble species, on average, accounted for 44% and 33% of TSP over BoB and AS respectively, with dominant contribution of SO ₄ ^2? over both the oceanic regions. However, distinct differences with respect to elevated abundances of NH ₄ ⁺ in the MABL of BoB and that of Na⁺ and Ca²⁺ in AS are clearly evident. The non-sea-salt component of SO ₄ ^2? ranging from 82 to 98% over BoB and 35 to 98% over AS; together with nss-Ca²⁺/nss-SO ₄ ^2? equivalent ratios 0.12 to 0.5 and 0.2 to 1.16, respectively, provide evidence for the predominance of anthropogenic constituents and chemical transformation processes occurring within MABL. The concentrations of OC and EC average around 1.9 and 0.4 μg m^?3 in BoB and exhibit a decreasing trend from north to south; however, abundance of these carbonaceous species are not significantly pronounced over AS. The abundance of Al, used as a proxy for mineral aerosols, varied from 0.2 to 1.9 μg m^?3 over BoB and AS, with a distinctly different spatial pattern — decreasing north to south in BoB in contrast to an increasing pattern in the Arabian Sea.     

Chemical characteristics of PM<Subscript>10</Subscript> aerosols and airmass trajectories over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea during ICARB

For the first time, chemical characterization of PM₁₀ aerosols was attempted over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea (AS) during the ICARB campaign. Dominance of SO ₄ ^2? , NH ₄ ⁺ and NO ₃ ^? was noticed over both the regions which indicated the presence of ammonium sulphate and ammonium nitrate as major water soluble particles playing a very important role in the radiation budget. It was observed that all the chemical constituents had higher concentrations over Bay of Bengal as compared to Arabian Sea. Higher concentrations were observed near the Indian coast showing influence of landmass indicating that gaseous pollutants like SO₂, NH₃ and NO _x are transported over to the sea regions which consequently contribute to higher SO ₄ ^2? , NH ₄ ⁺ and NO ₃ ^? aerosols respectively. The most polluted region over BoB was 13°?19°N and 70°?90°E while it was near 11°N and 75°E over AS. Although the concentrations were higher over Bay of Bengal for all the chemical constituents of PM₁₀ aerosols, per cent non-sea salt (nss) fraction (with respect to Na) was higher over Arabian Sea. Very low Ca2+ concentration was observed at Arabian Sea which led to higher atmospheric acidity as compared to BoB. Nss SO ₄ ^2? alone contributed 48% of total water soluble fraction over BoB as well as AS. Ratios SO ₄ ^2? /NO _? ³ over both the regions (7.8 and 9 over BoB and AS respectively) were very high as compared to reported values at land sites like Allahabad (0.63) and Kanpur (0.66) which may be due to very low NO.3 over sea regions as compared to land sites. Air trajectory analysis showed four classes: (i) airmass passing through Indian land, (ii) from oceanic region, (iii) northern Arabian Sea and Middle East and (iv) African continent. The highest nss SO ₄ ^2? was observed during airmasses coming from the Indian land side while lowest concentrations were observed when the air was coming from oceanic regions. Moderate concentrations of nss SO2. 4 were observed when air was seen moving from the Middle East and African continent. The pH of rainwater was observed to be in the range of 5.9–6.5 which is lower than the values reported over land sites. Similar feature was reported over the Indian Ocean during INDOEX indicating that marine atmosphere had more free acidity than land atmosphere.     

The influence of large-scale circulations on the extremely inactive tropical cyclone activity in 2010 over the western North Pacific

This study attempts to understand why the frequency of tropical cyclones (TC) over the western North Pacific (WNP) was a record low during the 2010 season, by analyzing the effect of several large-scale factors. The genesis potential index (GPI) can represent, to some extent, the spatial distribution of formation in 2010. However, the GPI does not explain the extremely low TC frequency. No robust relationship between the TC number and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was found. A comparison of the extreme inactive TC year 2010 and extreme active year 1994 was performed, based on the box difference index that can measure the quantitative difference of large-scale environmental factors. Dynamic factors were found to be important in differentiating TC formation over the WNP basin between 2010 and 1994. The remarkable difference of monsoon flows in the WNP basin between these two years may be the cause of the difference in TC formation. The unfavorable conditions for TC genesis in 2010 may have also been due to other large scale factors such as: (1) weak activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation during the peak season; (2) warming of the sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean during the peak season, causing the development of an anticyclone over the WNP basin and associated with the westward motion of the monsoon trough, and (3) the phase change of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (more negative) and the two strong La Niña events that have evolved since 2006.     

Surface and upper air meteorological features during onset phase of 2003 monsoon

The second campaign of the Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX-II) was conducted in two phases viz., March–April and May–June 2003. In the present work, the buoy and ocean research vessel data collected during the second phase of ARMEX-II have been analysed to bring out the characteristic features of monsoon onset. The results have shown that the thermodynamical features such as build up of lower tropospheric instability and increased height of zero degree isotherm occurred about a week before the monsoon onset over Kerala and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea. There was a sharp fall in the temperature difference between 850 and 500 hPa, and the height of zero degree isotherm about 2–3 days before the monsoon onset. The flux of sensible heat was positive (sea to air) over south Arabian Sea during the onset phase. Over the Bay of Bengal higher negative (air to sea) values of sensible flux prevailed before the monsoon onset which became less negative with the advance of monsoon over that region. The pre-onset period was characterized by large sea surface temperature (SST) gradient over the Arabian Sea with rapid decrease towards north of the warm pool region. The buoy observations have shown that SST remained close to 30.5°C in the warm pool region during the pre-onset period in 2003 but only 2–3 degrees away (north of this region) SSTs were as low as 28.5–29°C. An interesting aspect of sea level pressure (SLP) variability over the Indian seas during the onset phase of summer monsoon 2003 was undoubtedly, the highest SLP in the warm pool region inspite of very high SSTs.     

Role of biology in the air-sea carbon flux in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

A physical-biological-chemical model (PBCM) is used for investigating the seasonal cycle of air-sea carbon flux and for assessing the effect of the biological processes on seasonal time scale in the Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB), where the surface waters are subjected to contrasting physical conditions. The formulation of PBCM is given in Swathi et al (2000), and evaluation of several ammonium-inhibited nitrate uptake models is given in Sharada et al (2005). The PBCM is here first evaluated against JGOFS data on surface pCO₂ in AS, Bay of Bengal Process Studies (BoBPS) data on column integrated primary productivity in BoB, and WOCE Il data on dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and alkalinity (ALK) in the upper 500 meters at 9°N in AS and at 10°N in BoB in September–October. There is good qualitative agreement with local quantitative discrepancies. The net effect of biological processes on air-sea carbon flux on seasonal time scale is determined with an auxiliary computational experiment, called the abiotic run, in which the biological processes are turned off. The difference between the biotic run and abiotic run is interpreted as the net effect of biological processes on the seasonal variability of chemical variables. The net biological effect on air-sea carbon flux is found to be highest in southwest monsoon season in the northwest AS, where strong upwelling drives intense new production. The biological effect is larger in AS than in BoB, as seasonal upwelling and mixing are strong in AS, especially in the northeast, while coastal upwelling and mixing are weak in BoB.     

Characteristics of spectral aerosol optical depths over India during ICARB

Spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements, carried out regularly from a network of observatories spread over the Indian mainland and adjoining islands in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, are used to examine the spatio-temporal and spectral variations during the period of ICARB (March to May 2006). The AODs and the derived Ångström parameters showed considerable variations across India during the above period. While at the southern peninsular stations the AODs decreased towards May after a peak in April, in the north Indian regions they increased continuously from March to May. The Ångström coefficients suggested enhanced coarse mode loading in the north Indian regions, compared to southern India. Nevertheless, as months progressed from March to May, the dominance of coarse mode aerosols increased in the columnar aerosol size spectrum over the entire Indian mainland, maintaining the regional distinctiveness. Compared to the above, the island stations showed considerably low AODs, so too the northeastern station Dibrugarh, indicating the prevalence of cleaner environment. Long-range transport of aerosols from tshe adjoining regions leads to remarkable changes in the magnitude of the AODs and their wavelength dependencies during March to May. HYSPLIT back-trajectory analysis shows that enhanced long-range transport of aerosols, particularly from the west Asia and northwest coastal India, contributed significantly to the enhancement of AOD and in the flattening of the spectra over entire regions; if it is the peninsular regions and the island Minicoy are more impacted in April, the north Indian regions including the Indo Gangetic Plain get affected the most during May, with the AODs soaring as high as 1.0 at 500 nm. Over the islands, the Ångström exponent (α) remained significantly lower (～1) over the Arabian Sea compared to Bay of Bengal (BoB) (～1.4) as revealed by the data respectively from Minicoy and Port Blair. Occurrences of higher values of α, showing dominance of accumulation mode aerosols, over BoB are associated well with the advection, above the boundary layer, of fine particles from the east Asian region during March and April. The change in the airmass to marine in May results in a rapid decrease in α over the BoB.     

南海南部晚第四纪表层海水温度的变化及其与极地冰芯古气候记录的比较

本次研究选取南海南部"太阳号"95航次17961-2柱状样(8°30.4′N,112°19.9′E,水深1795m,柱长10.3m)的175块样品进行浮游(Globigerinoides ruber)和底栖有孔虫(Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi)的氧碳稳定同位素及浮游有孔虫G.ruber壳体的Mg/Ca比值测定,再造了距今约140ka以来时间分辨率约800年的表层海水温度(SST)变化,揭示末次冰期南海南部的SST曾降温达约5℃,且存在类似Dansgaard-Oeschger(D/O)事件的千年尺度波动。将南海南部的研究结果与极地冰芯古气候记录进行对比,发现在千年时间尺度上南海南部SST的变化特征与南极冰芯的古气候变化相一致,而与格陵兰冰芯^δ18O所展示的锯齿状形态D/O事件的变化不一样,且最近的两个末次冰消期南海南部SST与代表高纬冰盖体积大小的底栖有孔虫^δ18O几乎同步变化,反映南海南部热带海区古气候变化的特殊性,为进一步研究低纬热带海区在全球古气候变化中的作用提供了新证据。