Intensity forecast of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean using multilayer perceptron model: skill and performance verification

The coastal regions of India are profoundly affected by tropical cyclones during both pre- and post-monsoon seasons with enormous loss of life and property leading to natural disasters. The endeavour of the present study is to forecast the intensity of the tropical cyclones that prevail over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal of North Indian Ocean (NIO). A multilayer perceptron (MLP) model is developed for the purpose and compared the forecast through MLP model with other neural network and statistical models to assess the forecast skill and performances of MLP model. The central pressure, maximum sustained surface wind speed, pressure drop, total ozone column and sea surface temperature are taken to form the input matrix of the models. The target output is the intensity of the tropical cyclones as per the T??number. The result of the study reveals that the forecast error with MLP model is minimum (4.70?%) whereas the forecast error with radial basis function network (RBFN) is observed to be 14.62?%. The prediction with statistical multiple linear regression and ordinary linear regression are observed to be 9.15 and 9.8?%, respectively. The models provide the forecast beyond 72?h taking care of the change in intensity at every 3-h interval. The performance of MLP model is tested for severe and very severe cyclonic storms like Mala (2006), Sidr (2007), Nargis (2008), Aila (2009), Laila (2010) and Phet (2010). The forecast errors with MLP model for the said cyclones are also observed to be considerably less. Thus, MLP model in forecasting the intensity of tropical cyclones over NIOs may thus be considered to be an alternative of the conventional operational forecast models.     

Customization of WRF-ARW model with physical parameterization schemes for the simulation of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean

The convection and planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes play significant role in the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs). Several convection and PBL parameterization schemes incorporate these processes in the numerical weather prediction models. Therefore, a systematic intercomparison of performance of parameterization schemes is essential to customize a model. In this context, six combinations of physical parameterization schemes (2 PBL Schemes, YSU and MYJ, and 3 convection schemes, KF, BM, and GD) of WRF-ARW model are employed to obtain the optimum combination for the prediction of TCs over North Indian Ocean. Five cyclones are studied for sensitivity experiments and the out-coming combination is tested on real-time prediction of TCs during 2008. The tracks are also compared with those provided by the operational centers like NCEP, ECMWF, UKMO, NCMRWF, and IMD. It is found that the combination of YSU PBL scheme with KF convection scheme (YKF) provides a better prediction of intensity, track, and rainfall consistently. The average RMSE of intensity (13?hPa in CSLP and 11?m?s^?1 in 10-m wind), mean track, and landfall errors is found to be least with YKF combination. The equitable threat score (ETS) of YKF combination is more than 0.2 for the prediction of 24-h accumulated rainfall up to 125?mm. The vertical structural characteristics of cyclone inner core also recommend the YKF combination for Indian seas cyclones. In the real-time prediction of 2008 TCs, the 72-, 48-, and 24-h mean track errors are 172, 129, and 155?km and the mean landfall errors are 125, 73, and 66?km, respectively. Compared with the track of leading operational agencies, the WRF model is competing in 24?h (116?km error) and 72?h (166?km) but superior in 48-h (119?km) track forecast.     

Comparison of high-resolution TRMM-based precipitation products during tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean

Debris flow moves in the form of surge waves and consists of dozens or even hundreds of surges that are separated in time and space and have a variety of appearances, as exemplified in Jiangjia Gully, China. Observations there indicate that the deposit is made up by superposition of successive surges and deposit of a single surge is in effect a “frozen” surge. Then the study of debris flow is reduced to the study of surge sequence, which leads to a probabilistic picture of debris flow. This study attempts to find the probability distribution of velocity of surge using a huge data set of Jiangjia Gully. Statistics of the data shows that the velocity satisfies the Weibull distribution, which is believed to be universally valid because the distribution parameters vary little between events, with the shape parameter being well related to the average of velocity. It follows that the same distribution applies also to other quantities of debris flow, such as the flow depth and the discharge. Therefore, the distribution can be used to assess the magnitude and overflow range of a potential debris flow, as well as to the parameter calculation for engineering design.     

Best track parameters of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean: a review

India Meteorological Department has the responsibility of monitoring and prediction of cyclonic disturbances (CDs) including tropical cyclone (TC) and depression, collection, processing and archival of all data pertaining to CDs and preparation of best track data over the North Indian Ocean (NIO). The process of post-season analysis of CDs to determine the best estimate of a CD??s position and intensity along with other characteristics during its lifetime is described as ??best tracking??. The best tracking procedure has undergone several changes world-over including NIO due to change in definition and classification of TCs, monitoring and analysis tools and procedure and physical understanding of TCs. There have been a few attempts to document the temporal changes in the best track procedure including changes in observational network, monitoring technique, area of responsibility for monitoring, terminology and classification of the TCs over the NIO. Hence, a study has been undertaken to review the temporal variations in all the above aspects of best tracking procedure and its impact on quality of best track parameters over the NIO. The problems and prospective with the best track data over the (NIO) have been presented and discussed. Based on quality and availability, the whole period of best track information may be broadly classified into four phases, viz. (i) pre-1877, (ii) 1877?C1890, (iii) 1891?C1960 and (iv) 1961?C2010. The period of 1961?C2010 may be further classified into (a) 1961?C1973, (b) 1974?C1990 and (c) 1991?C2010. As optimum observational network including satellite leading to better estimation of location and intensity without missing of CDs was available since 1961, the climatology of genesis, location, intensity, movement (track) and landfall can be best represented based on the data set of 1961?C2010. The best track parameters need to be reanalysed since 1891, based on the present criteria/classification of CDs to develop a digital data set of every six hourly position, intensity and other characteristics throughout the life period of each recorded CD over the NIO to meet the world standard. At least attempt should be made from 1974 when all types of major data including satellite, radar, surface and upper air observations are available for best track analysis. The reanalysis of best track parameters can help in better understanding and prediction of CDs and address the issues related to climate change aspects over the NIO region.     

Impact of horizontal resolution on prediction of tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal using a regional weather prediction model

The present study is carried out to examine the performance of a regional atmospheric model in forecasting tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal and its sensitivity to horizontal resolution. Two cyclones, which formed over the Bay of Bengal during the years 1995 and 1997, are simulated using a regional weather prediction model with two horizontal resolutions of 165 km and 55 km. The model is found to perform reasonably well towards simulation of the storms. The structure, intensity and track of the cyclones are found to be better simulated by finer resolution of the model as compared to the coarse resolution. Rainfall amount and its distribution are also found to be sensitive to the model horizontal resolution. Other important fields, viz., vertical velocity, horizontal divergence and horizontal moisture flux are also found to be sensitive to model horizontal resolution and are better simulated by the model with finer horizontal grids.     

A coupled physical-biological-chemical model for the Indian Ocean

A coupled physical-biological-chemical model has been developed at C-MMACS. for studying the time-variation of primary productivity and air-sea carbon-dioxide exchange in the Indian Ocean. The physical model is based on the Modular Ocean Model, Version 2 (MOM2) and the biological model describes the nonlinear dynamics of a 7-component marine ecosystem. The chemical model includes dynamical equation for the evolution of dissolved inorganic carbon and total alkalinity. The interaction between the biological and chemical model is through the Redfield ratio. The partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO₂) of the surface layer is obtained from the chemical equilibrium equations of Penget al 1987. Transfer coefficients for air-sea exchange of CO₂ are computed dynamically based on the wind speeds. The coupled model reproduces the high productivity observed in the Arabian Sea off the Somali and Omani coasts during the Southwest (SW) monsoon. The entire Arabian Sea is an outgassing region for CO₂ in spite of high productivity with transfer rates as high as 80 m-mol C/m² /day during SW monsoon near the Somali Coast on account of strong winds.     

Predictability of landfall location and surge height of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean (NIO)

Natural Hazards - Forecasting, with precision, the location of landfall and the height of surge of cyclonic storms prevailing over any ocean basin is very important to cope with the associated...     

Medium-range forecast of cyclogenesis over North Indian Ocean with multilayer perceptron model using satellite data

An attempt is made in this study to develop a model to forecast the cyclonic depressions leading to cyclonic storms over North Indian Ocean (NIO) with 3 days lead time. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) model is developed for the purpose and the forecast quality of the model is compared with other neural network and multiple linear regression models to assess the forecast skill and performances of the MLP model. The input matrix of the model is prepared with the data of cloud coverage, cloud top temperature, cloud top pressure, cloud optical depth, cloud water path collected from remotely sensed moderate resolution imaging spectro-radiometer (MODIS), and sea surface temperature. The input data are collected 3 days before the cyclogenesis over NIO. The target output is the central pressure, pressure drop, wind speed, and sea surface temperature associated with cyclogenesis over NIO. The models are trained with the data and records from 1998 to 2008. The result of the study reveals that the forecast error with MLP model varies between 0 and 7.2 % for target outputs. The errors with MLP are less than radial basis function network, generalized regression neural network, linear neural network where the errors vary between 0 and 8.4 %, 0.3 and 24.8 %, and 0.3 and 32.4 %, respectively. The forecast with conventional statistical multiple linear regression model, on the other hand, generates error values between 15.9 and 32.4 %. The performances of the models are validated for the cyclonic storms of 2009, 2010, and 2011. The forecast errors with MLP model during validation are also observed to be minimum.     

Simulation of cyclones using synthetic data

A number of sensitivity experiments have been conducted to investigate the influence of using synthetic data on cyclone forecasts by a global spectral model. Some well known vortices have been used and the generated wind and pressure profiles are compared. It is found that the Rankine vortex and Holland’s vortex show the best representation of cyclonic circulation. Hence these two vortices are used in the sensitivity studies to simulate two cyclones, one of May 1979 and the other of August 1979. For this purpose the FGGE level-III b data set, produced at ECM WF, UK is used. Synthetic temperature and humidity data are also introduced to make the cyclones more realistic. With the use of Holland’s vortex the system is found to move faster than with the Rankine vortex. Also, the tracks of the cyclones simulated with Rankine vortex are found to be on the left side of the observed track while that of Holland’s vortex is on the right side of the observed track. However, substantial filling up of the systems are noticed with introduction of diabatic initialization of the mass and velocity fields and the forecasts of both the vortices behave differently. It is suggested that proper selection of synthetic vortex, initialization scheme and resolution of the model are very important for better forecast of cyclones.     

Incursion of the Pacific Ocean Water into the Indian Ocean

Using the data collected during the International Indian Ocean Expedition, maps showing the distribution of depth, acceleration potential, salinity and oxyty were prepared for the northeast monsoon for the four potential thermosteric anomaly surfaces: 160, 120, 80 and 60 cl/t. Zonal components of current along 84°E were computed from the geopotential dynamic heights. From such an analysis, it became clear that low-salinity water from the Pacific intrudes into the western Indian Ocean through the Banda and Timor seas in the upper layers above 100 cl/t surface, while the North Indian Ocean Water penetrates towards the Eastern Archipelago below 100 cl/t surface. The South Equatorial Countercurrent and the Tropical Countercurrent are well depicted on the vertical section of zonal components as well as on the distribution of acceleration potential.     

Application of wave model for weather routing of ships in the North Indian Ocean

Weather routing of ships is used to establish the shortest time route or the most economical route from a departure to arrival point by applying available information of the weather condition viz. wind, wave and current. Information on ship speed loss due to these effects is pre-computed using sea-keeping computing tools, which are then suitably employed in the optimum ship routing algorithm. This developed algorithm was investigated using the wave height information from GEOSAT altimeter records. Dijkstra’s path optimization scheme, which employs optimal control theory and dynamic programming technique, is used to obtain reliable optimum route in a given random sea-state.     

Metallogenic information extraction and quantitative prediction process of seafloor massive sulfide resources in the Southwest Indian Ocean

Seafloor massive sulfide (SMS) deposits have significant development potential. In 2011, the China Ocean Mineral Resources Research and Development Association (COMRA) and International Seabed Authority (ISA) signed a contract to explore a 10 000 km² region of the seafloor along the Southwest Indian Ridge (SWIR) containing hydrothermal sulfides. As regulated by the contract, China will have to relinquish 50% and 75% of the contract area within 8 and 10 years, respectively. However, exploration for seafloor hydrothermal sulfide deposits in China remains in the initial stage. Based on quantitative prediction theory and the status of exploration for SMS, we assemble factors related to the deposits in terms of topography, geology, geophysics, and several other related aspects along the SWIR and extract the most favorable information to establish a prospecting prediction model for SMS. By employing the weights-of-evidence method, we obtain a weighting for each prediction factor and thereby obtain a posterior probability map for the SWIR. The prediction result suggests that the central region of the SWIR has the highest posterior probability, i.e., it is the most prospective for the formation of hydrothermal vents and related SMS. Known hydrothermal areas such as Mt. Jourdanne, area A and 10°E–16°E are all located in the regions with high posterior probability values. The Chinese contract area (47°–51°E) has the highest posterior probability value and thus can be selected as a reserved region for additional exploration. By narrowing the exploration area and improving exploration accuracy, the predictions made will provide a focus for further exploration of seafloor hydrothermal sulfide resources.     

Altimeter data assimilation in the tropical Indian Ocean using water property conserving scheme

Altimeter data have been assimilated in an ocean general circulation model using the water property conserving scheme. Two runs of the model have been conducted for the year 2004. In one of the runs, altimeter data have been assimilated sequentially, while in another run, assimilation has been suppressed. Assimilation has been restricted to the tropical Indian Ocean. An assessment of the strength of the scheme has been carried out by comparing the sea surface temperature (SST), simulated in the two runs, with in situ derived as well as remotely sensed observations of the same quantity. It has been found that the assimilation exhibits a significant positive impact on the simulation of SST. The subsurface effect of the assimilation could be judged by comparing the model simulated depth of the 20°C isotherm (hereafter referred to as D20), as a proxy of the thermocline depth, with the same quantity estimated from ARGO observations. In this case also, the impact is noteworthy. Effect on the dynamics has been judged by comparison of simulated surface current with observed current at a moored buoy location, and finally the impact on model sea level forecast in a free run after assimilation has been quantified in a representative example.     

Geochemical evolution of Indian Ocean basaltic magmatism

A comparison of new and published geochemical characteristics of magmatism in the western and eastern Indian Ocean at the initial and recent stages of its evolution revealed several important differences between the mantle sources of basaltic melts from this ocean.

1. The sources of basalts, from ancient rises and from flanks of the modern Central Indian Ridge within the western Indian Ocean contain an enriched component similar in composition to the source of the Réunion basalts (with radiogenic Pb and Sr and unradiogenic Nd), except for basalts from the Comores Islands, which exhibit a contribution from an enriched HIMU-like component.
2. The modern rift lavas of spreading ridges display generally similar geochemical compositions. Several local isotopic anomalies are characterized by the presence of an EM2-like component. However, two anomalous areas with distinctly different enriched mantle sources were recognized in the westernmost part of the Southwestern Indian Ridge (SWIR). The enriched mantle source of the western SWIR tholeiites in the vicinity of the Bouvet Triple Junction has the isotopic ratios indicating a mixture of HIMU + EM2 in the source. The rift anomaly distinguished at 40° E displays the EM1 signature in the mantle source, which is characterized by relatively low ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb (up to 17.0) and high ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr. This source may be due to mixing with material from the continental lithosphere of the ancient continent Gondwana. The material from this source can be distinguished in magmas related to the Mesozoic plume activity in Antarctica, as well as in basalts from the eastern Indian Ocean rises, which were formed by the Kerguelen plume at 100–90 Ma.
3. The geochemical heterogeneities identified in the ancient and present-day magmatic products from the western and eastern Indian Ocean are thought to reflect the geodynamic evolution of the region. In the eastern part of the ocean, the interaction of the evolving Kerguelen plume with the rift zones produced magmas with specific geochemical characteristics during the early opening of the ocean; such a dispersion of magma composition was not recognized in the western part of the ocean.

     

New Somali Basin magnetic anomalies and a plate model for the early Indian Ocean

The oldest portions of the Indian Ocean formed via the breakup of Gondwana and the subsequent fragmentation of East Gondwana. We present a constrained plate model for this early Indian Ocean development for the time period from Gondwana Breakup until the start of the Cretaceous Normal Superchron. The motions of the East Gondwana terranes are determined using new geophysical observations in the Somali Basin and existing geophysical interpretations from other coeval Indian Ocean basins. Within the Somali Basin, recent satellite gravity data clearly resolve traces of an east–west trending extinct spreading ridge and north–south oriented fracture zones. A thorough compilation of Somali Basin ship track magnetic data allows us to interpret magnetic anomalies M24Bn through M0r about this extinct ridge. Our magnetic interpretations from the Somali Basin are similar in age, spreading rate, and spreading directions to magnetic anomalies previously interpreted in the neighboring Mozambique Basin and Riiser Larsen Sea. The similarity between the two magnetic anomaly datasets allows us to match both basin's older magnetic anomaly picks by defining a pole of rotation for a single and cohesive East Gondwana plate. However, following magnetic anomaly M15n, we find it is no longer possible to match magnetic picks from both basins and maintain plausible plate motions. In order to match the post-M15n geophysical data we are forced to model the motions of Madagascar/India and East Antarctica/Australia as independent plates. The requirement to utilize two independent plates after anomaly M15n provides strong circumstantial evidence that suggests East Gondwana breakup began around 135 Ma.     

An assessment of wind forcing impact on a spectral wave model for the Indian Ocean

The focus of the present study is the assessment of the impact of wind forcing on the spectral wave model MIKE 21 SW in the Indian Ocean region. Three different wind fields, namely the ECMWF analyzed winds, the ECMWF blended winds, and the NCEP blended winds have been used to drive the model. The wave model results have been compared with in-situ observations and satellite altimeter data. This study also evaluated the performance of the wind products during local phenomenon like sea breeze, since it has a significant impact on the wave prediction in the Indian coastal region. Hence we explored the possibility of studying the impact of diurnal variation of winds on coastal waves using different wind fields. An analysis of the model performance has also been made during high wind conditions with the inference that blended winds generate more realistic wave fields in the high wind conditions and are able to produce the growth and decay of waves more realistically.     

Fragments of continental structures in the Indian Ocean

Fragments of continental structures (microcontinents) composed of sialic rocks are widespread in the Indian Ocean, where they are located in its African, Australian, and Indian margins. The origin of these fragments is related to splitting off from continent margins along faults and further seaward motion driven by the tectonic flow of mantle masses.