The nature of precursor waves from distant earthquakes

It is shown that, in accordance with the data used when determining velocity distribution in the Earth’s core [14], so called “precursor” earthquakes cannot be produced by wave scattering to lower mantle inhomogeneities, because seismic rays linking the earthquake sources and seismic stations are located in different inner zones of the Earth and travel at different azimuths, producing a stable wave pattern on aggregate. Thus, the present work considers the fundamental problem regarding what precursor earthquakes are. Solution of this problem will guide ideas about the structure of the Earth’s core.     

Foreshock activity as a precursor of strong earthquakes in Corinthos Gulf,Central Greece

Foreshock activity preceding strong (M_s ≥ 5) main shocks in the Corinthos Gulf, Central Greece, is examined from primarily a data set of 1970–1998 and supplementary from data sets of 1785–1910 and 1911–1969. It has been found that foreshock activity appears at time T ≤ 4 months before the main shock. In general there is no apparent tendency of foreshock epicenters to move towards the main shock epicenter. The last 10 days of the foreshock period is the most important phase since the probability for the main shock occurrence at any time within that time window is very high exceeding 0.83. The duration of the foreshock period as well as the largest foreshock magnitude are both independent of the main shock magnitude. Obtained results are important for inclusion in probabilistic earthquake predictions in the Corinthos Gulf.     

Development of near-surface dilatancy zones as a possible cause for seismic emission anomalies before strong earthquakes

Based on mathematical modeling, the paper presents the estimation of the length of dilatancy zones developed near a free surface during the preparation of earthquakes. An algorithm for the calculation of dilatancy zones has been developed and applied for numerical modeling. Estimated examples of the development of near-surface dilatancy zones before the Kamchatka earthquakes with a magnitude M = 6.7–7.8 are given. The results of the numerical experiments under the accepted assumptions solve the problem of the long-range influence of a future earthquake source on a limited remote zone of microseismic information gathering: the model admits the development of near-surface dilatancy zones in the vicinity of a station recording seismic noise that can trigger forerunner anomalies.     

Energy flux of strong earthquakes

In this paper, the energy flux of strong earthquakes at a station is determined considering the progressive rupture of a fault as the source of earthquakes. It is found that the motion of the source and the relative position of the station with respect to the fault are important in determining the energy density, the energy flux and the duration of the earthquake at this station. There is a “sphere of influence” beyond which the source may be assumed to be stationary. The analytical results are in good agreement with those of the 5 strong motion records obtained very near the fault from the Parkfield event of 27th June, 1966. 21 strong motion records are studied for energy densities at the stations from which a magnitude-energy relationship is obtained which agrees closely with other existing relationships.     

中国大陆科学钻探主孔流体地球化学异常与远强震的关系

2001年11月14日发生的昆仑山口西Ms8．1级地震和2004年12月26日发生的印度尼西亚苏门答腊Ms8．7级地震前后,中国大陆科学钻探（CCSD）主孔流体组成出现明显的异常。两次远强震前后的流体异常幅度很大,并具有相似的演化趋势。异常始于震前2—7天,He、N2／O2、He／Ar、N2／Ar为负异常,Ar／O2为正异常。远强震前后流体异常特征与CCSD附近小震前后流体异常特征具有明显的区别,表明昆仑山口西Ms8．1级地震前后和苏门答腊Ms8．7级地震前后的CCSD主孔流体异常可能与两次远强震相关。认为CCSD主孔中的He、N2、Ar是记录远强震的敏感载体,可能记录了震前长周期波传播至CCSD主孔时激发的流体变化,反映了震源区的应力变化,也可能反映了区域构造活动乃至地球深部构造活动产生的场兆、源兆信息。     

On the migration of precursors of strong earthquakes

It is found that perturbations presumedly associated with swarms, the B patterns and the BG pattern precursors of strong earthquakes in New Zealand, California and Apennines, propagate in the crust of the Earth with a velocity of the order of cm¹. The hypothesis that a single travelling elastic perturbation causes a set of precursors of the same strong earthquake is discussed and it is concluded that each precursor is associated with a different perturbation.     

Potential of future seismogenesis in Hebei Province (NE China) due to stress interactions between strong earthquakes

Northeast China, a densely populated area, is affected by intense seismic activity, which includes large events that caused extensive disaster and tremendous loss of life. For contributing to the continuous efforts for seismic hazard assessment, the earthquake potential from the active faults near the cities of Zhangjiakou and Langfang in Hebei Province is examined. We estimate the effect of the coseismic stress changes of strong (M ⩾ 5.0) earthquakes on the major regional active faults, and mapped Coulomb stress change onto these target faults. More importantly our calculations reveal that positive stress changes caused by the largest events of the 1976 Tangshan sequence make the Xiadian and part of Daxing fault, thus considered the most likely sites of the next strong earthquake in the study area. The accumulated static stress changes that reached a value of up to 0.4 bar onto these faults, were subsequently incorporated in earthquake probability estimates for the next 30 years.     

Quiescence period prior to strong earthquakes in the Kuril-Kamchatka zone

The characteristics of the distributions of the time differences occurrence of the consecutive earthquakes in the Kuril-Kamchatka zone, including the Hokkaido Island area, have been investigated in various magnitude ranges. For the purpose of the analysis, we used the data from the regional and world earthquake catalogs for the last 20 years. As a result of this analysis, a new intermediate-term precursor effect has been found: a quiescence period observed prior to the strongest earthquakes. This precursor manifests itself in the form of the long-term (2–6 months) absence of events with M ≥ 5.5 within the territory. For the predictive purposes, it was proposed to replace the quiescence period by such a more stable parameter as the sum of the three longest intervals between the earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in a sliding time window. The prognostic informativeness of this parameter has been assessed.     

On generation conditions of strong earthquakes in southern Baikal

In this paper the features of seismic process in the southern depression of Lake Baikal are considered. By the data on focal mechanisms of the earthquakes of February 25, 1999 (M _w = 6.0), and August 27, 2008 (M _w = 6.3), as well as based on configuration of their aftershock fields, it is determined that foci of strong seismic events in southern Baikal are controlled by the greatest structural elements of sublatitudinal and submeridional strikes. It has been shown that a substantial role in the formation of focal zones is played by low-scale destruction of the Earth’s crust, revealed by geological-geophysical data and proved by clustering of seismic shocks. New data on the August 27, 2008, earthquake have proved the high level of seismic danger of this part of the Baikal Rift Zone and allowed us to determine generation conditions of strong earthquakes more precisely.     

Horizontal motions and the generation of strong earthquakes in the North Sakhalin interiors

The recent geodynamics of Sakhalin Island is best described by the convergence of the Eurasian and North American (Sea of Okhotsk) lithospheric plates, which is manifested in the high seismic activity of the island. In North Sakhalin, the plate boundary is thought to correspond to a system of roughly N-S-trending faults, which belong to the North Sakhalin deep fault, and the Upper-Piltun fault; the latter was ruptured by the 1995 M 7.2 Neftegorsk earthquake. This study first confirmed that the stationary motion of the Sea of Okhotsk plate is retarded on this fault to form with time a series of drag folds and stress field anomalies. The latter are released during the subsequent (in a 400⦒o 1000-year period) strong earthquakes by seismic sliding on the flanks of the Upper Piltun fault. The 2003–2006 GPS observations revealed the free state of this fault zone with relative slip rates of 5–6 mm/yr.     

Investigation of the variability of strong ground motions from Vrancea earthquakes

A systematic investigation of the applicability of several ground motion prediction models for Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source is conducted in this research. Two ground motion prediction models recommended by previous evaluations (Vacareanu et al. in Bull Earthq Eng 11(6):1867–1884, 2013a; Pavel et al. in Earthq Struct 6(1):1–18, 2014), as well as two new state-of-the-art ground motion prediction equations (Vacareanu et al. in J Earthq Eng, 2013b; Earthq Struct 6(2):141–161, 2014) are tested using an increased strong ground motion database consisting of 150 recordings from Vrancea subcrustal earthquakes. The evaluation is performed by using several goodness-of-fit parameters from the literature. Moreover, the applicability of the single-station sigma method is also investigated by using the same strong ground motion database recorded in 30 seismic stations from southern and eastern Romania. The influence of the soil conditions on the numerical results obtained in this study is investigated and discussed using the results provided by the analysis of variance method. The impact of the single-station standard deviation on the levels of seismic hazard is also assessed in this study, and the results show, in the analyzed cases, significant reductions of the hazard levels.     

电磁辐射对台湾强震的反应

本文通过对 1 999年 9月 2 1日台湾南投 7 6级强震前电磁辐射变化特征的分析 ,进一步探讨了电磁辐射在短临预报中的作用 ,同时给出了初步判断震中位置的方法     

Recurrence of strong earthquakes in the active Hovd Fault Zone, Mongolian Altay

A geological, geomorphic, and paleoseismological study of paleoseismodislocation systems has been carried out. Numerous indications of prehistoric strong earthquakes expressed in sediments deposited in the fault-line region due to the formation of transient barrier lakes were revealed in the active Hovd Fault Zone on the eastern slope of the Mongolian Altay during a paleoseismological study of young near-surface sediments in trenches and dug pits. The paleosoils buried by these sediments were radiocarbon-dated. It has been established that the strongest earthquakes with magnitudes of ～8, which took place here 7200, 6600, 1500, and later than 700 years ago, substantially changed the topography in the epicentral zone. By analogy with the results of paleoseismological investigations performed in the Gorny Altay and the western Mongolian Altay, the data obtained shed light on the recurrence of the strongest seismic events in the Great Altay.