Sedimentary signatures of cyclic growth and destruction of stratovolcanoes: A case study from Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand

The long-term behaviour of andesite stratovolcanoes is characterised by a repetition of edifice growth phases followed by collapse. This cyclic pattern represents a natural frequency at varying timescales in the growth dynamics of stratovolcanoes worldwide. Around the > 130 ka Mt. Taranaki (Egmont volcano), New Zealand, coastal–cliff successions at 20–40 km distance comprise repeating packages of lithologically and sedimentologically distinctive mass-flow deposits. Varying depositional mechanisms and source properties of these units record growth and collapse cycles of the central edifice. These are used to construct a model for cyclic volcaniclastic sedimentation in the surrounds of stratovolcanoes. During edifice-construction phases, thick packages of tabular, predominantly monolithologic, hyperconcentrated-flow and debris-flow deposits accumulate with intercalated tephra beds. The mass-flow units commonly contain large proportions of fresh pumice or juvenile-lithic andesite. Intervals of quiescence separating eruptive periods are characterised by landscape re-adjustment, accompanied by deposition of fluvial and aeolian sediments, along with steady accretion of medial ash. In contrast, brief episodes of destruction are marked by wide-spread, distinctively clay-rich, polylithologic debris-avalanche deposits and related marginal debris flow units. The growth stages can be terminated by an eruption-triggered sector collapse, or by external forces once the edifice exceeds a critical stable height or profile (dependent on eruptive style and local geo-tectonic conditions). Once the edifice becomes metastable, regional tectonic earthquakes or shallow-level intrusion events are likely triggers for collapse. Although the resulting debris avalanches represent the greatest individual hazard from such andesite stratovolcanoes, their frequency is relatively low compared with other types of mass-flows generated during edifice-growth phases. Accurate forecasts of future hazard from mass-flow events are therefore dependent on recognition of both the frequency of a stratovolcano's growth cycle and its current position in that cycle.     

Applying neighbourhood classification systems to natural hazards: a case study of Mt Vesuvius

Mt Vesuvius is regarded as one of the most deadly volcanoes on earth. With over 1 million people living on its flanks and in its periphery, there is little doubt that an eruption of sub-Plinian magnitude would be catastrophic to the livelihood and well being of contemporary Neopolitans. Such a large scale eruption would have wide ranging and differential effects on the surrounding population. Whereas previous studies of social vulnerability have focused on individual demographic factors (such as age, income or ethnicity), this research proposes the application of a general neighbourhood classification system to assess natural hazard vulnerability. In this study, Experian’s Mosaic Italy is used to classify and delineate the most vulnerable neighbourhood types around the province of Naples. Among the neighbourhoods considered most at risk, those areas with high proportions of elderly and low income families are deemed particularly vulnerable. With current evacuation plans deemed outdated and poorly communicated to the locals Rolandi (2010), Barberi et al. (2008), this methodology could prove to be a useful input to both town planners and civil protection agencies. A range of statistical measures and geophysical risk boundaries are employed here to assess the different areas of human resilience.     

Highways protection from flood hazards,a case study: New Tama road,KSA

Natural Hazards - Highways in arid regions are highly exposed to damage by floods. This requires intensive analysis of flood quantity, time and direction that can be used to design the suitable...     

The importance of digital elevation model resolution on granular flow simulations: a test case for Colima volcano using TITAN2D computational routine

The mobility of gravity-driven granular flows such as debris flows or pyroclastic density currents are extremely sensitive to topographic changes, such as break in slopes, obstacles, or ravine deviations. In hazard assessment, computer codes can reproduce past events and evaluate hazard zonation based on inundation limits of simulated flows over a natural terrain. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is a common input for the simulation algorithm and its accuracy to reproduce past flows is crucial. In this work, we use TITAN2D code to reproduce past block-and-ash flows at Colima volcano (Mexico) over DEMs with different cell size (5, 10, 30, 50, and 90 m) in order to illustrate the influences of the resolution on the numeric simulations. Our results show that topographic resolution significantly affects the flow path and runout. Also, we found that simulations of past flows with the same input parameters (such as the basal friction angle) over topography with different resolutions resulted in different flow paths, areas, and thickness of the simulated flows. In particular, the simulations performed with the 5- and 10-m DEMs produced similar results. Also, we obtained consistent simulation results for the 30- and 50-m DEMs. However, for the coarser 90-m DEM results are largely different and inaccurate. We recommend generating a benchmark table in order to acquire characteristic values for the basal friction angle of studied events. In case of rugged topographies, a DEM with high resolution should be used for more confident results.     

Mapping the 3D lithofacies architecture of a VMS ore system on a curvilinear-faulted grid: A case study from the Flin Flon mining camp,Canada

The 3D lithofacies architecture of the thrust-imbricated Paleoproterozoic 85.5 Mt Flin Flon volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) ore system, Trans-Hudson orogen, Canada has been mapped in 3D using a numerical grid modeling methodology. This methodology is based on the Structural Knowledge Universal Approach (SKUA®) modeling work flow developed for modeling hydrocarbon reservoirs. One of the major advantages of applying this methodology to mineral exploration is that it allows exploiting knowledge on the structural setting of the ore deposit without the need to determine all kinematic constraints that would be required for a full 3D balanced restoration. The work flow proceeds by modeling the volume of the thrust-repeated mine horizon on a curvilinear faulted grid that is conformable to the enveloping geological structure and that includes discontinuities to model fault offsets. It then uses a coordinate transformation to partly remove the influence of geological structure on Euclidean distance-based geostatistical estimations. It subsequently applies the inverse of this coordinate transformation to represent the interpolated or simulated lithofacies distribution in the finite deformed state. Randomized validation experiments show that the geostatistical analysis resulted in an estimated overall 74% accuracy of the predicted lithofacies classes over the grid. The lithofacies grid models provide insight into the post-depositional deformation history of the ore system and the rifted volcanic arc setting in which the Flin Flon massive sulfide ore was deposited. The lithofacies grid models also serve as stratified containers for generating lithochemical property models that can be used for spatially characterizing ore-forming processes, such as hydrothermal alteration and ore metal zoning.     

Exploratory seismic site response surveys in a complex geologic area: a case study from Mt. Etna volcano (southern Italy)

A preliminary study targeting to evaluate the local seismic response was performed in the eastern flank of Mt. Etna (southern Italy) using ambient noise measurements. The obtained spectral ratios were subdivided through cluster analysis into different classes of fundamental frequency permitting to draw an iso-frequency contour map. The analysis set into evidence the extreme heterogeneity of lava sequences, which makes difficult to identify a single seismic bedrock formation. Another important outcome, concerning the local seismic effects in terms of frequency and azimuth, is the important role played by the fracture fields associated with the main structural systems of the area. The existence of two zones with strong directional effects striking WNW–ESE and NW–SE, nearly orthogonal to the orientation of the main fracture fields, corroborate such hypothesis.     

Mapping soil electric conductivity using Bayesian kriging: A case study from Qasur,Pakistan

Quality of soil data is vital to formulate agricultural policies at different scales. Current agricultural applications in Pakistan depend however, on average values of soil estimates over larger areas. In this work, model-based ordinary kriging (OK) and Bayesian kriging (BK) to interpolate soil data is used. The aim is to compare the two different methods for the accuracy of soil data prediction. For this soils were sampled for Electrical Conductivity (EC, dS m ^–1) at 759 different locations in the rural agricultural areas of Qasur Tehsil, Pakistan. Cross validation was used to compare the performance of OK and BK. Our results show strong skewness and spatial dependency of soil EC values in heterogeneous regions. Box-Cox transformation successfully reduced the level of skewness in the soil EC data (from 14.1 to 0.11). Contrary to OK, under-estimation of soil EC values was not evident in the BK interpolation. Mean square prediction error for BK (1.45) was significantly reduced as compared to that for OK (6.1). Considering these findings, BK is a better model to explain the sub-regional soil EC variability and estimating strategies for sustainable agricultural planning in Pakistan.     

Exploratory seismic site response surveys in a complex geologic area: a case study from Mt. Etna volcano (southern Italy)

A preliminary study targeting to evaluate the local seismic response was performed in the eastern flank of Mt. Etna (southern Italy) using ambient noise measurements. The obtained spectral ratios were subdivided through cluster analysis into different classes of fundamental frequency permitting to draw an iso-frequency contour map. The analysis set into evidence the extreme heterogeneity of lava sequences, which makes difficult to identify a single seismic bedrock formation. Another important outcome, concerning the local seismic effects in terms of frequency and azimuth, is the important role played by the fracture fields associated with the main structural systems of the area. The existence of two zones with strong directional effects striking WNW–ESE and NW–SE, nearly orthogonal to the orientation of the main fracture fields, corroborate such hypothesis.

     

Mapping groundwater storage variations with GRACE: a case study in Alberta,Canada

The applicability of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to adequately represent broad-scale patterns of groundwater storage (GWS) variations and observed trends in groundwater-monitoring well levels (GWWL) is examined in the Canadian province of Alberta. GWS variations are derived over Alberta for the period 2002–2014 using the Release 05 (RL05) monthly GRACE gravity models and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) land-surface models. Twelve mean monthly GWS variation maps are generated from the 139 monthly GWS variation grids to characterize the annual GWS variation pattern. These maps show that, overall, GWS increases from February to June, and decreases from July to October, and slightly increases from November to December. For 2002–2014, the GWS showed a positive trend which increases from west to east with a mean value of 12 mm/year over the province. The resulting GWS variations are validated using GWWLs in the province. For the purpose of validation, a GRACE total water storage (TWS)-based correlation criterion is introduced to identify groundwater wells which adequately represent the regional GWS variations. GWWLs at 36 wells were found to correlate with both the GRACE TWS and GWS variations. A factor f is defined to up-scale the GWWL variations at the identified wells to the GRACE-scale GWS variations. It is concluded that the GWS variations can be mapped by GRACE and the GLDAS models in some situations, thus demonstrating the conditions where GWS variations can be detected by GRACE in Alberta.     

Implication of subsurface flow on rainfall-induced landslide: a case study

Post-failure field investigation, instrumentation, monitoring, and numerical simulation were performed to give insights into the failure mechanism of a 13-h-delayed rainfall-induced landslide. A conceptual hydrological model was postulated based on the findings obtained from the investigation works. The results showed that subsurface flow was recharged by intense and prolonged rainfall through outcrops of fissured bedrock. The recharged water was mounded in the moderately weathered granite layer and caused an increase in hydraulic head. The groundwater seeped gradually upward into the overlying fill layer even after the rain has ceased, and eventually triggered the landslide when the water table was raised to a critical state. As most of the existing hydrologic-slope stability models were developed on the basis of soil-impermeable bedrock model, this could result in great discrepancies between the simulated results and the real hydrological responses of the slope. The findings from the present study highlighted the importance of considering subsurface flow and hydro-geological features in assessing the mechanism of rainfall-induced landslide.     

Risk evaluation of geological hazards of mountainous tourist area: a case study of Mengshan,China

Natural Hazards - Risk evaluation is crucial for the construction projects in the areas with high risk of geological hazards. In this paper, based on the projects of Mengshan tourism area,...     

Subsidence due to crack closure and depressurization of hydrothermal systems: a case study from Mt Epomeo (Ischia Island,Italy)

Levelling surveys carried out between 1990 and 2003 on the Mt Epomeo resurgent block (Ischia Island) record negative dislocations on its northern and southern flanks with a maximum subsidence rate of 1.27 cm yr⁻¹. This deformation is not associated with the cooling, crystallization or lateral drainage of magma and cannot be explained by a pressure point or prolate ellipsoid source. Results from dislocation models and the available structural and geochemical information indicate that the subsidence is due to crack closure processes along two main ENE–WSW and E–W preexisting faults, which represent the preferred pathway of CO₂ degassing from the hydrothermal system located beneath Mt Epomeo. The monitoring of the dislocations and CO₂ flux along these faults could give useful information on the dynamics of the hydrothermal system.     

Fluid flow characteristics of Bandanna Coal Formation: a case study from the Fairview Field,eastern Australia

Fluid flow characteristics of cleat systems in coalbed methane reservoirs are crucial in reservoir management and field development plans. This paper aims to evaluate the cleat system properties including cleat porosity, permeability, and aperture as well as the impact of permeability growth on production performance in the Bandanna Coal Formation of the Fairview Field, eastern Queensland. Owing to the presence of bad hole conditions and poor core recovery of the coal intervals, the petrophysical well logs and laboratory measurements cannot be used as a source of information for this purpose. Hence, a new approach is employed that utilises early water production data to measure water in place and absolute permeability of the coal. In addition, micro-computed tomography (CT) scan method is used to investigate the cleat system that is preserved in a core sample and results are compared with the ones obtained by analysis of production data. Cleat system evaluation by analysis of production data and micro-CT scan technique provides a comprehensive approach that brings confidence in measurements and helps to obtain cleat properties at the sufficient scale for reservoir engineering purposes. The necessary information including production data and core samples are collected from a dewatering well and the nearby observation well in the study area. Analysis of early water production data (single-phase flow) indicates that coal permeability is 189 mD and the average cleat porosity is approximately 5%. High cleat porosity describes the large volume of water produced over the life of the study well. The 3D model of the fossilised cleat system constructed by the micro-CT scan method reveals that coal is well-cleated and cleat spacing and mean cleat aperture are 4 and 0.136 mm, respectively. The average cleat porosity that is measured by the micro-CT scan method is 5.7%, which is fairly close to the cleat porosity measured by analysis of production data. Production data analysis indicates that effective permeability to gas starts to grow at the midlife of the well and it strongly controls the shape of the production profile. The results of this study help in future field development and infill drilling programs in the Fairview Field and provide important insights into cleat system of Bandanna Coal Formation.     

雪峰山中段古生代变形的特征及意义——以绥宁-靖州-天柱-新晃剖面为例

对雪峰山中段绥宁-靖州(会同)-天柱-新晃剖面的研究表明,雪峰山中段的变形自东向西减弱,由东部的向西倒转紧闭褶皱过渡到西部的开阔褶皱。东部(绥宁-靖州段)卷入褶皱的为南华系和震旦系—下古生界,褶皱样式表明东部在南华系与板溪群之间存在一区域性的滑脱面,本段缩短11km。剖面西段(靖州(会同)-天柱-新晃段)卷入变形的为板溪群、南华系和震旦系—下古生界,主要滑脱面位于板溪群下部或冷家溪群与板溪群之间,该段缩短46km。东西2段之间的界线是早期控制板溪群和南华系沉积的正断层。研究得出的缩短量为最小值,与前人的研究结果一致,表明古生代雪峰山逆冲推覆距离不大。雪峰山中段石炭系与南华系之间的超覆不整合、靖州盆地的构造属性和雪峰山剖面的变形特征显示,雪峰山中段的变形发生在早古生代。雪峰山早古生代变形是早期裂谷的反转,属薄皮构造。     

Physically based dynamic run-out modelling for quantitative debris flow risk assessment: a case study in Tresenda,northern Italy

Quantitative landslide risk assessment requires information about the temporal, spatial and intensity probability of hazardous processes both regarding their initiation as well as their run-out. This is followed by an estimation of the physical consequences inflicted by the hazard, preferentially quantified in monetary values. For that purpose, deterministic hazard modelling has to be coupled with information about the value of the elements at risk and their vulnerability. Dynamic run-out models for debris flows are able to determine physical outputs (extension, depths, velocities, impact pressures) and to determine the zones where the elements at risk can suffer an impact. These results can then be applied for vulnerability and risk calculations. Debris flow risk has been assessed in the area of Tresenda in the Valtellina Valley (Lombardy Region, northern Italy). Three quantitative hazard scenarios for different return periods were prepared using available rainfall and geotechnical data. The numerical model FLO-2D was applied for the simulation of the debris flow propagation. The modelled hazard scenarios were consequently overlaid with the elements at risk, represented as building footprints. The expected physical damage to the buildings was estimated using vulnerability functions based on flow depth and impact pressure. A qualitative correlation between physical vulnerability and human losses was also proposed. To assess the uncertainties inherent in the analysis, six risk curves were obtained based on the maximum, average and minimum values and direct economic losses to the buildings were estimated, in the range of 0.25–7.7 million €, depending on the hazard scenario and vulnerability curve used.     

Projected impacts of land use and road network changes on increasing flood hazards using a 4D GIS: A case study in Makkah metropolitan area,Saudi Arabia

Makkah City, west of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is considered the third main highly populated metropolitan area in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It exhibits two unique features that increase the hazardous flood consequences: (1) its topography is very complex and (2) about three million Muslims are gathered annually in Makkah to perform Hajj over a 2-week period. Floods are natural returning hydrological phenomena that have been affecting human lives. The objectives of the current study are: (1) identification of land use types and road networks in Makkah, (2) hydrological modeling of flood characteristics in Makkah based on precise up-to-date databases, (3) examination of the relationship between land use, land cover changes, transportation network expansion, and the floods' prosperities and hazards, and (4) development of digital hydrological maps for present and near future flood hazards in Makkah. The attained results show that the mean runoff depth and the total flood volume are significantly increased from 2010 to 2030. Additionally, it has been found that a great part of the road network in Makkah City is subjected to high dangerous flood impacts. The overall length of flood danger-factor roads is increased from 481 km (with almost 37 %) to 1,398 km (with 74 % approximately) between 2010 and 2030. Thus, it is concluded that urbanization has a direct strong relationship with flood hazards. Consequently, it is recommended that the attained results should be taken into account by decision makers in implementing new development planning of the Makkah metropolitan area.     

2D rotation of rigid inclusions in confined bulk simple shear flow: a numerical study

We have used incompressible Navier–Stokes in 2D finite element modelling to investigate rigid inclusion rotation under confined bulk simple shear flow. Confinement is defined as the ratio (S) between the channel width (H) and the inclusion's least axis (e₂)(S=H/e₂). The numerical results show that (i) inclusion rotation is strongly influenced by S and, when the confinement is effective, aspect ratio (R) and shape also play an important role. (ii) Back rotation is limited because inclusions reach a stable equilibrium orientation (_se). (iii) There is also an unstable equilibrium orientation (_ue), which defines an antithetic rotation field with _se, and both _se and _ue depend on S, and inclusion R and shape.     

Formation and characteristics of post-earthquake debris flow: a case study from Wenjia gully in Mianzhu, Sichuan, SW China

During the three flood seasons following the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, two catastrophic groups of debris flow events occurred in the earthquake-affected area: the 2008-9-24 debris flow events, which had a serious impact on rebuilding; and the 2010-8-13/14 debris flow events, which destroyed much of the progress made in rebuilding. The Wenjia gully is a typical post-earthquake debris flow gully and at least five debris flows have occurred there. As far as the 2010-8-13 debris flow is concerned, the deposits of the Wenjia gully debris flow reached a volume of 3.1 × 10⁶ m³ in volume and hundreds of newly built houses were buried. This study took the Wenjia gully debris flow as an example and discussed the formation and characteristics of post-earthquake debris flow on the basis of field investigations and a remote sensing interpretation. The conclusions drawn from the investigation and analysis were as follows: (1) Post-earthquake debris flows were a joint result of both the earthquake and heavy rainfall. (2) Gully incision and loose material provision are key processes in the initiation and occurrence of debris flows and a cycle can be presented as the following process: runoff—erosion—collapse—engulfment—debris flow—further erosion—further collapse—further engulfment—debris flow enlargement. (3) The amount of rainfall that triggered debris flows from the Wenjia gully was significantly less than the average daily rainfall, while the intraday rainfall threshold decreased by at least 23.3%. (4) The occurrence mechanism of Wenjia gully debris flow was an erosion type and there was a positive relationship between debris flow magnitude and rainfall, which fitted an exponential model. (5) There were five representative characteristics of Wenjia gully debris flow: the long duration of the occurring process; the long distance of deposition chain conversion during the process of damage; magnification in the scale of debris flow; and the high frequency of debris flow events.     

Mapping groundwater contamination risk using GIS and groundwater modelling. A case study from the Gaza Strip, Palestine

Increasing pressure on water resources worldwide has resulted in groundwater contamination, and thus the deterioration of the groundwater resources and a threat to the public health. Risk mapping of groundwater contamination is an important tool for groundwater protection, land use management, and public health. This study presents a new approach for groundwater contamination risk mapping, based on hydrogeological setting, land use, contamination load, and groundwater modelling. The risk map is a product of probability of contamination and impact. This approach was applied on the Gaza Strip area in Palestine as a case study. A spatial analyst tool within Geographical Information System (GIS) was used to interpolate and manipulate data to develop GIS maps of vulnerability, land use, and contamination impact. A groundwater flow model for the area of study was also used to track the flow and to delineate the capture zones of public wells. The results show that areas of highest contamination risk occur in the southern cities of Khan Yunis and Rafah. The majority of public wells are located in an intermediate risk zone and four wells are in a high risk zone.