Performance evaluation of land change simulation models using landscape metrics

This study proposes a landscape metrics-based method for model performance evaluation of land change simulation models. To quantify model performance at both landscape and class levels, a set of composition- and configuration-based metrics including number of patches, class area, landscape shape index, mean patch area and mean Euclidean nearest neighbour distance were employed. These landscape metrics provided detailed information on simulation success of a cellular automata-Markov chain (CA-Markov) model standpoint of spatial arrangement of the simulated map versus the corresponding reference layer. As a measure of model simulation success, mean relative error (MRE) of the metrics was calculated. At both landscape and class levels, the MRE values were accounted for 22.73 and 10.2%, respectively, which are further categorised into qualitative measurements of model simulation performance for simple and quick comparison of the results. Findings of the present study depict a hierarchical and multi spatial level assessment of model performance.     

Modelling coastal land use change by incorporating spatial autocorrelation into cellular automata models

This paper presents a spatial autoregressive (SAR) method-based cellular automata (termed SAR-CA) model to simulate coastal land use change, by incorporating spatial autocorrelation into transition rules. The model captures the spatial relationships between explained and explanatory variables and then integrates them into CA transition rules. A conventional CA model (LogCA) based on logistic regression (LR) was studied as a comparison. These two CA models were applied to simulate urban land use change of coastal regions in Ningbo of China from 2000 to 2015. Compared to the LR method, the SAR model yielded smaller accumulated residuals that showed a random distribution in fitting the CA transition rules. The better-fitting SAR model performed well in simulating urban land use change and scored an overall accuracy of 85.3%, improving on the LogCA model by 3.6%. Landscape metrics showed that the pattern generated by the SAR-CA model has less difference with the observed pattern.     

Spatio-temporal pattern analysis of land use/cover change trajectories in Xihe watershed

Human-induced land use/cover change has been considered to be one of the most important parts of global environmental changes. In loess hilly and gully regions, to prevent soil loss and achieve better ecological environments, soil conservation measures have been taken during the past decades. The main objective of this study is to quantify the spatio-temporal variability of land use/cover change spatial patterns and make preliminary estimation of the role of human activity in the environmental change in Xihe watershed, Gansu Province, China. To achieve this objective, the methodology was developed in two different aspects, that is, (1) analysis of change patterns by binary image of change trajectories overlaid with different natural geographic factors, in which Relative Change Intensity (RCI) metric was established and used to make comparisons, and (2) analysis based on pattern metrics of main trajectories in the study area. Multi-source and multi-temporal Remote Sensing (RS) images (including Landsat ETM+ (30 June 2001), SPOT imagery (21 November 2003 and 5 May 2008) and CBERS02 CCD (5 June 2006)) were used due to the constraints of the availability of remotely sensed data. First, they were used to extract land use/cover types of each time node by object-oriented classification method. Classification results were then utilized in the trajectory analysis of land use/cover changes through the given four time nodes. Trajectories at every pixel were acquired to trace the history of land use/cover change for every location in the study area. Landscape metrics of trajectories were then analyzed to detect the change characteristics in time and space through the given time series. Analysis showed that most land use/cover changes were caused by human activities, most of which, under the direction of local government, had mainly led to virtuous change on the ecological environments. While, on the contrary, about one quarter of human-induced changes were vicious ones. Analysis through overlaying binary image of change trajectories with natural factors can efficiently show the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of land use/cover change patterns. It is found that in the study area RCI of land use/cover changes is related to the distance to the river line. And there is a certain correlation between RCI and slope grades. However, no obvious correlation exists between RCI and aspect grades.     

Characterizing urban area dynamics in historic city of Kurukshetra,India, using remote sensing and spatial metric tools

Abstract

Developing countries like India are an urbanization hotspot with many upcoming towns and cities. Growth in small and medium sized towns and cities have been unnoticed and growing without appropriate urban planning. Utilizing the available medium resolution satellite data and geospatial platforms, the growth dynamics of Kurukshetra city was analysed over a period of 24 years. The study employed a combination of change detection technique and spatial metrics (six each of class and landscape levels) analysis to delineate the growth track of the city and its environs. A significant increase in urban built up (dense 237%; open 1038%) is seen majorly at the cost of open area (70%) and tree clad (58%). Phases of city’s aggregation and diffusion are observed using class and landscape level spatial metrics. Understanding and monitoring of land use changes in and around city limits using integrated spatial tools provide better decision making capability.     

泽州猕猴自然保护区土地利用／覆被及景观格局变化研究

文中以2007年第二次全国土地调查和2015年地理国情普查所提供高分辨率地表覆盖数据为主要信息源,采用地理信息系统技术和景观生态学数量分析相结合的方法对2007—2015年泽州猕猴自然保护区土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)、景观格局变化及其驱动力进行研究分析。结果表明,近8年来,受人为、经济发展和政策因素影响,泽州猕猴自然保护区整体景观破碎度增强,形状更加规律化、简单化,景观分布聚集度变大,生态连通性增强,多样性减少。研究结果为泽州猕猴自然保护区生态系统的健康发展、生态环境的改善与经济社会的和谐发展提供参考。     

武汉市土地利用/覆被与景观格局变化特征

武汉市作为武汉城市圈的核心城市,其土地利用/覆被和景观格局变化备受关注。本文基于1991年和2009年Landsat TM影像数据,采用RS、GIS和景观生态学方法,运用土地利用变化模型、土地利用转移矩阵和景观格局分析软件Fragstats3.3,对武汉市近19a的土地利用/覆盖及景观格局变化特征进行了动态研究,结果表明此成果能够为武汉市土地资源的合理开发利用和保护提供参考。     

Modelling of land use land cover change using earth observation data-sets of Tons River Basin,Madhya Pradesh,India

Abstract

An integrated Markov Chain and Cellular Automata modelling (CA MARKOV), multicriteria evaluation techniques have been applied to produce transition probability. The unsupervised method was employed to classify the satellite images of year 1985, 1995, 2005 and 2015 to meet the magnitude of LULC change. Results showing the spatial pattern of the sub-basin is largely influenced by the biophysical and socio-economic drivers leading to growth of agricultural lands and built-up area in the basin. Simulated plausible future LULC changes for 2025 which is based on a CA MARKOV that integrates Markovian transition probabilities computed from satellite-derived LULC maps and a CA contiguity spatial filter (5 × 5). Further, the fragmentation analysis was performed to check the fragmentation scenario in the year 2025. The result for year 2025 with reasonably good accuracy will be useful to the planners, policy- and decision-makers.     

Comparative analysis of land use/cover change trajectories and their driving forces in two small watersheds in the western Loess Plateau of China

To prevent soil loss and achieve better ecological environments, soil conservation measures have been taken during the past decades in the western Loess Plateau of China. In this paper, a case study was taken in Luoyu valley and Lver valley, two sub-watersheds of Xihe watershed and comparison was carried out between them. The main object of this study is to monitor land use/cover changes in the two similar small watersheds utilizing SPOT5 imageries by object-oriented human–computer interactive classification method, further develop the method of spatio-temporal analysis of land use/cover change by using pattern metrics of change trajectories and relative land use suitability index (R) in smaller watersheds, and make comparisons between the two similar small watersheds, taking water and soil conservation measures into consideration. Results show that combining GIS and RS, this method can be perfectly applied to make comparisons between different small watersheds with similar geographical backgrounds. And land use/cover spatiotemporal dynamic change characteristics can be preferably expressed by pattern metrics of change trajectories and R values based on topographical data. Different emphases have been laid according to their own geological backgrounds in the two watersheds and human activities have different effects on the landscapes of the two watersheds. The main change pattern is from slope farmland to terrace (322, the largest in Luoyu valley) or to economic fruit forest (344, the largest in Lver valley). R value of every slope grade in both of the two watersheds drops with the rising of slope degree on the whole and it shows that there is still much to do for people in the two watersheds in consideration that all the R values are still lower than 0.7.     

Landscape transform and spatial metrics for mapping spatiotemporal land cover dynamics using Earth Observation data-sets

Analysis of Earth observation (EO) data, often combined with geographical information systems (GIS), allows monitoring of land cover dynamics over different ecosystems, including protected or conservation sites. The aim of this study is to use contemporary technologies such as EO and GIS in synergy with fragmentation analysis, to quantify the changes in the landscape of the Rajaji National Park (RNP) during the period of 19 years (1990–2009). Several statistics such as principal component analysis (PCA) and spatial metrics are used to understand the results. PCA analysis has produced two principal components (PC) and explained 84.1% of the total variance, first component (PC1) accounted for the 57.8% of the total variance while the second component (PC2) has accounted for the 26.3% of the total variance calculated from the core area metrics, distance metrics and shape metrics. Our results suggested that notable changes happened in the RNP landscape, evidencing the requirement of taking appropriate measures to conserve this natural ecosystem.     

Reducing landscape heterogeneity for improved land use and land cover (LULC) classification across the large and complex Ethiopian highlands

This paper presents a land use and land cover (LULC) classification approach that accounts landscape heterogeneity. We addressed this challenge by subdividing the study area into more homogeneous segments using several biophysical and socio-economic factors as well as spectral information. This was followed by unsupervised clustering within each homogeneous segment and supervised class assignment. Two classification schemes differing in their level of detail were successfully applied to four landscape types of distinct LULC composition. The resulting LULC map fulfills two major requirements: (1) differentiation and identification of several LULC classes that are of interest at the local, regional, and national scales, and (2) high accuracy of classification. The approach overcomes commonly encountered difficulties of classifying second-level classes in large and heterogeneous landscapes. The output of the study responds to the need for comprehensive LULC data to support ecosystem assessment, policy formulation, and decision-making towards sustainable land resources management.     

Geostatistical techniques for incorporating spatial correlation into land use change models

Land use modeling requires large amounts of data that are typically spatially correlated. This study applies two geostatistical techniques to account for spatial correlation in residential land use change modeling. In the first approach, we combined generalized linear model (GLM) with indicator kriging to estimate the posterior probability of residential development. In the second approach, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) was used to simultaneously model spatial correlation and regression fixed effects. Spatial agreement between actual and modeled land use change was higher for the GLM incorporating indicator kriging. The GLMM produced more reliable estimates and could be more useful in analyzing the effects of driving factors of land use change for land use planning.     

Stylized environments and ABMs: educational tools for examining the causes and consequences of land use/land cover change

A challenge in land change science is to assess the causes and consequences of LULC change and associated pattern–process relations. Increasingly, land change organizations are examining land use at local to global scales for historical, contemporary and future periods through scenarios that assess population–environment interactions. Spatial analytical tools in GIScience are being used to link people and environment and to search for the distal and proximate factors that affect local to global land use patterns. Spatial simulation models that rely upon complexity theory as the framework and agent-based models as the analytical approach offer the capability to inform through experimentation about land issues important to science and society. Using a stylized landscape where a selected set of key social, geographical and ecological elements are spatially organized, we describe how land dynamics can be examined through agent-based models as educational tools that are useful in the classroom, boardroom and public forums.     

Application of remote sensing technology for land use/land cover change analysis

Land use/land cover changes over a period of 30 years were studied using remote sensing technology in a part of Gohparu block, Shahdol district of Madhya Pradesh. Land use/ land cover maps were prepared by visual interpretation of two period remotely sensed data. Post-classification comparison technique was adopted for this purpose. The loss of vegetation cover was estimated to be 22 percent and 14 percent of the land was found to have been tranformed into wasteland between 1967 and 1996. Overall rate of change was found to be 1.8 percent per year during this period.     

湿地景观演变与土地利用强度变化的响应关系——以银川平原为例

针对传统的湿地景观演变动态监测成果缺少空间分布特征和驱动力认知的可视化表达的问题,该文以银川平原为研究区,利用1989、1999和2010年3年的卫星遥感影像,通过遥感制图和基于半方差函数地统计学方法、灰色关联度理论等,分别获取了湿地景观演变规律图谱、土地利用强度演变规律图谱和湿地景观变化与土地利用强度变化响应关系图谱。基于以上图谱分析得到:1989—2010年期间,自然湿地(主要是河流湿地、湖泊湿地)面积持续减少,减少幅度有所降低;人工湿地(主要是水稻田湿地)面积大幅增加,湿地总面积呈增长趋势;土地利用方式对湿地景观变化影响显著,人类活动(城市扩张、农事活动)对湿地景观的演变起到潜移默化的作用。     

遥感和GIS技术应用于伊拉克南部Basrah省土地利用/覆盖变化及城市扩张研究

In recent years, land use/cover dynamic change has become a key subject that needs to be dealt with in the study of global environmental change. In this paper, remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) are integrated to monitor, map, and quantify the land use/cover change in the southern part of Iraq (Basrah Province was taken as a case) by using a 1:250 000 mapping scale. Remote sensing and GIS software were used to classify Landsat TM in 1990 and Landsat ETM+ in 2003 imagery into five land use and land cover (LULC) classes: vegetation, sand, urban area, unused land, and water bodies. Supervised classification and normalized difference build-up index (NDBI) were used respectively to retrieve its urban boundary. An accuracy assessment was performed on the 2003 LULC map to determine the reliability of the map. Finally, GIS software was used to quantify and illustrate the various LULC conversions that took place over the 13-year span of time. Results showed that the urban area had increased by the rate of 1.2% per year, with area expansion from 3 299.1 km² in 1990 to 3 794.9 km² in 2003. Large vegetation area in the north and southeast were converted into urban construction land. The land use/cover changes of Basrah Province were mainly caused by rapid development of the urban economy and population immigration from the countryside. In addition, the former government policy of “returning farmland to transportation and huge expansion in military camps” was the major driving force for vegetation land change. The paper concludes that remote sensing and GIS can be used to create LULC maps. It also notes that the maps generated can be used to delineate the changes that take place over time. Supported by the Al-Basrah University, Iraq, the Geo-information Science and Technology Program (No. IRT 0438)China).     

Optimization of spatial statistical approaches to identify land use/land cover change hot spots of Pune region of Maharashtra using remote sensing and GIS techniques

This study investigated land use/land cover change (LULCC) dynamics using temporal satellite images and spatial statistical cluster analysis approaches in order to identify potential LULCC hot spots in the Pune region. LULCC hot spot classes defined as new, progressive and non-progressive were derived from Gi* scores. Results indicate that progressive hot spots have experienced high growth in terms of urban built-up areas (20.67% in 1972–1992 and 19.44% in 1992–2012), industrial areas (0.73% in 1972–1992 and 3.46% in 1992–2012) and fallow lands (4.35% in 1972–1992 and ?6.38% in 1992–2012). It was also noticed that about 28.26% of areas near the city were identified as new hot spots after 1992. Hence, non-significant change areas were identified as non-progressive after 1992. The study demonstrated that LULCC hot spot mapping through the integrated spatial statistical approach was an effective approach for analysing the direction, rate, spatial pattern and spatial relationship of LULCC.     

Assessing the effects of land use spatial structure on urban heat islands using HJ-1B remote sensing imagery in Wuhan,China

Urban heat islands (UHIs) have attracted attention around the world because they profoundly affect biological diversity and human life. Assessing the effects of the spatial structure of land use on UHIs is essential to better understanding and improving the ecological consequences of urbanization. This paper presents the radius fractal dimension to quantify the spatial variation of different land use types around the hot centers. By integrating remote sensing images from the newly launched HJ-1B satellite system, vegetation indexes, landscape metrics and fractal dimension, the effects of land use patterns on the urban thermal environment in Wuhan were comprehensively explored. The vegetation indexes and landscape metrics of the HJ-1B and other remote sensing satellites were compared and analyzed to validate the performance of the HJ-1B. The results have showed that land surface temperature (LST) is negatively related to only positive normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) but to Fv across the entire range of values, which indicates that fractional vegetation (Fv) is an appropriate predictor of LST more than NDVI in forest areas. Furthermore, the mean LST is highly correlated with four class-based metrics and three landscape-based metrics, which suggests that the landscape composition and the spatial configuration both influence UHIs. All of them demonstrate that the HJ-1B satellite has a comparable capacity for UHI studies as other commonly used remote sensing satellites. The results of the fractal analysis show that the density of built-up areas sharply decreases from the hot centers to the edges of these areas, while the densities of water, forest and cropland increase. These relationships reveal that water, like forest and cropland, has a significant effect in mitigating UHIs in Wuhan due to its large spatial extent and homogeneous spatial distribution. These findings not only confirm the applicability and effectiveness of the HJ-1B satellite system for studying UHIs but also reveal the impacts of the spatial structure of land use on UHIs, which is helpful for improving the planning and management of the urban environment.     

Urbanization between compactness and dispersion: designing a spatial model for measuring 2D binary settlement landscape configurations

Measuring spatial patterns is a crucial task in spatial sciences. Multiple indicators have been developed to measure patterns in a quantitative manner. However, most comparative studies rely on relative comparisons, limiting their explanatory power to specific case studies. Motivated by advancements in earth observation providing unprecedented resolutions of settlement patterns, this paper suggests a measurement technique for spatial patterns to overcome the limits of relative comparisons. We design a model spanning a feature space based on two metrics – largest patch index and number of patches. The feature space is defined as ‘dispersion index’ and covers the entire spectrum of possible two-dimensional binary (settlement) patterns. The model configuration allows for an unambiguous ranking of each possible pattern with respect to spatial dispersion. As spatial resolutions of input data as well as selected areas of interest influence measurement results, we test dependencies within the model. Beyond, common other spatial metrics are selected for testing whether they allow unambiguous rankings. For scenarios, we apply the model to artificially generated patterns representing all possible configurations as well as to real-world settlement classifications differing in growth dynamics and patterns.     

基于GIS的岷江上游流域土地利用／覆被变化研究

以岷江上游流域为对象,选取3期9景TM/+ETM遥感影像,通过多步骤最大似然监督分类、变化检测,结合空间动态分析测算模型,分析近20年土地利用/覆被变化情况。结果表明:从整个流域分析,林地面积减少,主要转化为未利用地、建设用地和耕地;未利用地在前8年以每年3.7%、后8年以每年0.4%的速度增加;建设用地在1994—2002年以每年34%的速度增加,到2002—2010年增长速度减缓;耕地总面积减少54 431hm2;从县域分析,1994—2002年间,松潘和黑水县大面积林地转为未利用地;2002—2010年间,松潘县未利用地转为林地和建设用地,茂县和汶川县未利用地面积大幅增加。该研究结论不仅为国土资源管理部门优化土地利用结构提供依据,亦为当地政府实现生态资源可持续发展提供数据支撑。     

土地利用时空变化与城市化发展分析

城市化发展与科学合理利用土地已经成为社会发展最为关注的问题。土地利用结构发生变化后,不合理的土地利用规划等问题将会导致一系列的生态环境问题,因此,监测土地利用的时空变化,为土地利用规划及城市发展规划提供有效的数据支持很有必要。本文通过年度区间土地利用变化数据,利用转移矩阵、动态度、土地利用重心及土地利用结构信息熵分析土地利用变化情况,经过试验表明能够真实、全面反映土地利用变化状态,充分反映城市发展与土地利用关系,有利于提高分析的准确性和可靠性。