Geospatial Approach in Assessing Agro-Climatic Suitability of Soybean in Rainfed Agro-Ecosystem

The present study demonstrated the methodology to assess agro-climatic suitability of the soybean crop through integration of crop suitability based on FAO framework of land evaluation and biophysical (water limited) yield potential in the rainfed agro-ecosystem. A long term climatic database (1980–2003) was prepared to compute decadal rainfall and temperature variations of 13 IMD stations in part of Madhya Pradesh state. The climatic database was used in soil water balance software–BUDGET to compute crop specific length of growing period (LGP) and biophysical production potential such as water limited crop yield potential of each soil types for soybean crop. Water limited crop yield potential of soils were found to be varied from 33 to 100 and LGP ranged from 65 to 180 days in the area. FAO based land suitability was analyzed in association with the water limited yield potential for better appraisal of land potential and assess their suitability in rainfed area. FAO based land suitability indicated 2.45 % area as highly suitable and 57.49 % area as moderately suitable. However, integration of water limited crop yield potential with FAO based land suitability lead to agro-climatic suitability analysis indicated 17.60 % and 40.03 % area, respectively as highly suitable and moderately suitable. FAO based land evaluation showed 88.13 % of plains as moderately suitable whereas agro-climatic suitability indicated only 47.79 %. Agro-climatic suitability analysis revealed undulating plateau and undulating plains as most suitable for soybean crop.     

Regional-scale monitoring of cropland intensity and productivity with multi-source satellite image time series

In the context of growing populations and limited resources, the sustainable intensification of agricultural production is of great importance to achieve food security. As the need to support management at a range of spatial scales grows, decision-support tools appear increasingly important to enable the timely and regular assessment of agricultural production over large areas and identify priorities for improving crop production in low-productivity regions. Understanding productivity patterns requires the timely provision of gapless, spatial information about agricultural productivity. In this study, dense 30-m time series covering the 2004–2014 period were generated from Landsat and MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images over the irrigated cropped area of the Fergana Valley, Central Asia. A light-use efficiency model was combined with machine learning classifiers to assess the crop yield at the field level. The classification accuracy of land cover maps reached 91% on average. Crop yield and acreage estimates were in good agreement (R² = 0.812 and 0.871, respectively) with reported yields and acreages at the district level. Several indicators of cropland intensity and productivity were derived on a per-field basis and used to highlight homogeneous regions in terms of productivity by means of clustering. Results underlined that regions with lower water-use efficiency were not only located further away from irrigation canals and intake points, but also had limited access to markets and roads. The results underline that yield could be increased by roughly 1.0 and 1.4 t/ha for cotton and wheat, respectively, if the access to water would be optimized in some of the regions. The minimum calibration requirement of the method and the fusion of multi-sensor data are keys to cope with the constraints of operational crop monitoring and guarantee a sustained and timely delivery of the agricultural indicators to the user community. The results of this study can form the baseline to support regional land- and water-resource management.     

A simple assessment approach for winter wheat loss risk impacted by water stress

In this study, an empirical assessment approach for the risk of crop loss due to water stress was developed and used to evaluate the risk of winter wheat loss in China, the United States, Germany, France and the United Kingdom. We combined statistical and remote sensing data on crop yields with climate data and cropland distribution to model the effect of water stress from 1982 to 2011. The average value of winter wheat loss due to water stress for the three European countries was about ?931 kg/ha, which was higher than that in China (?570 kg/ha) and the United States (?367 kg/ha). Our study has important implications for the operational assessment of crop loss risk at a country or regional scale. Future studies should focus on using higher spatial resolution remote sensing data, combining actual evapotranspiration to estimate water stress, improving the method for downscaling of statistical crop yield data and establishing more sophisticated zoning methods.     

Retrieving soil moisture in rainfed and irrigated fields using Sentinel-2 observations and a modified OPTRAM approach

Surface soil water content plays an important role in driving the exchange of latent and sensible heat between the atmosphere and land surface through transpiration and evaporation processes, regulating key physiological processes affecting plants growth. Given the high impact of water scarcity on yields, and of irrigated agriculture on the overall withdrawal rate of freshwater, it is important to define models that help to improve water resources management for agricultural purposes, and to optimize rainfed crop yield. Recent advances in satellite-based remote sensing have led to valuable solutions to estimate soil water content based on microwave or optical/thermal-infrared data. This study aims at improving soil water content estimation at high spatial and temporal resolution, by means of the Optical Trapezoid Model (OPTRAM) driven by Copernicus Sentinel-2 data. Two different model variations were considered, based on linear and nonlinear parameters constraints, and validated against in situ soil water content measurements made with time domain reflectometry (TDR) on irrigated maize in central Italy and on rainfed maize and pasture in northern Italy. For the first site the non-linear model shows a better correlation between measured and estimated soil water content values (r = 0.80) compared to the linear model (r = 0.73). In both cases the modeled soil moisture tends to overestimate the measured values at medium to high water content level, while both models underestimate soil moisture at low water content level. Estimated versus measured normalized surface soil water for rainfed pasture plots from nonlinear OPTRAM parametrized based on irrigated maize parameterization (SIM1), and site-specific parametrization for rainfed pasture (SIM2), indicate that both models (SIM1 and SIM2) are comparable for rotational grazing pasture (RMSEsim1 = 0.0581 vs. RMSEsim2 = 0.0485 cm3 cm-3) and the continuous grazing pasture (RMSEsim1 = 0.0485 vs. RMSEsim2 = 0.0602 cm3 cm-3), while for the rainfed maize plots SIM1 shows lower RMSE (average for all plots RMSE = 0.0542 cm3 cm-3) compared to the site-specific calibration model (SIM2 – average for all plots RMSE = 0.0645 cm3 cm-3). Finally, OPTRAM estimations are close to in situ measurement values while Surface Soil Moisture at 1 km (SSM1 km) tends to underestimate the measurements during maize crop growing season. Soil moisture retrieval from high-resolution Sentinel-2 optical images allows water stress conditions to be effectively mapped, supporting decision making in irrigation scheduling and other crop management.     

FAO 56 Model and Remote Sensing for the Estimation of Crop-Water Requirement in Main Branch Canal of the Bhadra Command area, Karnataka State

Remote sensing and FAO 56 crop water model are used for estimating crop water requirement for paddy crop located in the main branch canal of Bhadra Command Area in Karnataka, India. The estimation of crop-water requirement depends on the meteorological factors, soil type and crop coefficients. The result obtained showed that water requirements of rabi crops higher than those of the kariff crops. The total irrigated area estimated from the IRS image is 29,353 ha. It is found that the total paddy crop acreage is 18,257 ha covering 62 % in the total irrigated area of the command area, Arecanut 20 %, coconut 15 % and sugarcane with other crops 3 %. The water requirement for paddy is 1180.4 mm for its entire growth period. The total water requirement for irrigation supply for crops in the entire command area is 5,790 at a demand of 0.10501 cusecs per ha.     

Soil Loss Mapping for Sustainable Development and Management of Land Resources in Warora Tehsil of Chandrapur District of Maharashtra: An Integrated Approach Using Remote Sensing and GIS

The study area is characterized by low and fluctuating rainfall pattern, thin soil cover, predominantly rain-fed farming with low productivity coupled with intensive mining activities, urbanization, deforestation, wastelands and unwise utilization of natural resources causing human induced environmental degradation and ecological imbalances, that warrant sustainable development and optimum management of land resources. Spatial information related to existing geology, land use/land cover, physiography, slope and soils has been derived through remote sensing, collateral data and field survey and used as inputs in a widely used erosion model (Universal Soil Loss Equation) in India to compute soil loss (t/ha/yr) in GIS. The study area has been delineated into very slight (<5 t/ha/yr), slight (5–10 t/ha/yr), moderate (10–15 t/ha/yr), moderately severe (15–20 t/ha/yr), severe (20–40 t/ha/yr) and very severe (>40 t/ha/yr) soil erosion classes. The study indicate that 45.4 thousand ha. (13.7% of TGA) is under moderate, moderately severe, severe and very severe soil erosion categories. The physiographic unit wise analysis of soil loss in different landscapes have indicated the sensitive areas, that has helped to prioritize development and management plans for soil and water conservation measures and suitable interventions like afforestation, agro-forestry, agri-horticulture, silvipasture systems which will result in the improvement of productivity of these lands, protect the environment from further degradation and for the ecological sustenance.     

Satellite remote sensing derived spatial water utilisation index (wui) for benchmarking of irrigation systems

Water Utilisation Index (WUI) defined as area irrigated per unit volume is a measure of water delivery performance and constitutes one of the important spatial performance indicators of an irrigation system. WUI also forms basis for evaluating the adequacy of seasonal irrigation supplies in an irrigation system (inverse of WUI is delta, i.e. depth of water supplied to a given irrigation unit). In the present study WUI and adequacy indicators were used in benchmarking the performance of Nagarjunasagar Left Canal Command (NSLC) in Andhra Pradesh. Optimised temporal satellite data of rabi season during the years 1990–91 and 1998–99 was used in deriving irrigated crop areas adopting hierarchical classification approach. Paddy is the predominant crop grown and cotton, chillies, sugarcane etc. are the other crops grown in the study area. Equivalent wet area (paddy crop area) was estimated using the operationally used project specific conversion factors. WUI was estimated at disaggregated level viz., distributary, irrigation block, irrigation zone level using the canal discharge data. At project level, WUI estimated to be 65 ha/MCM and 92 ha/MCM during rabi season of 1990–91 and 1998–99 years respectively. A comparison of total irrigated area and discharges corresponding to both the years indicate that irrigation service is extensive and sub optimal during 1998–99 and it is intensive and optimal in 1990–91. It was also observed that WUI is lesser in blocks of with higher Culturable Command Area (CCA) compared to the blocks of lower CCA. All the disaggregated units were ranked into various groups of different levels of water distribution performance. The study demonstrates the utility of WUI as spatial performance indicator and thus useful for benchmarking studies of irrigation command areas. The WUI together with satellite data derived spatial irrigation intensity, crop productivity constitutes important benchmarking indices in irrigation command areas.     

Monitoring of water stress in wheat using multispectral indices derived from Landsat-TM

Detection of crop water stress is crucial for efficient irrigation water management. Potential of Satellite data to provide spatial and temporal dynamics of crop growth conditions makes it possible to monitor crop water stress at regional level. This study was conducted in parts of western Uttar Pradesh and Haryana. Multi-temporal Landsat data were used for detecting wheat crop water stress using vegetation indices (VIs), viz. vegetation water stress index (VWSI) and land surface wetness index water stress factor (Ws_LSWI). The estimated water stress from satellite data-based VIs was validated by water stress factor (Ws) derived from flux-tower data. The study observed Ws_LSWI to be better index for water stress detection. The results indicated that Ws_LSWI was superior over other index showing RMSE = 0.12, R² = 0.65, whereas VWSI showed overestimated values with mean RD 4%.     

Yield Forecasting of Spring Maize Using Remote Sensing and Crop Modeling in Faisalabad-Punjab Pakistan

Real time, accurate and reliable estimation of maize yield is valuable to policy makers in decision making. The current study was planned for yield estimation of spring maize using remote sensing and crop modeling. In crop modeling, the CERES-Maize model was calibrated and evaluated with the field experiment data and after calibration and evaluation, this model was used to forecast maize yield. A Field survey of 64 farm was also conducted in Faisalabad to collect data on initial field conditions and crop management data. These data were used to forecast maize yield using crop model at farmers’ field. While in remote sensing, peak season Landsat 8 images were classified for landcover classification using machine learning algorithm. After classification, time series normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land surface temperature (LST) of the surveyed 64 farms were calculated. Principle component analysis were run to correlate the indicators with maize yield. The selected LSTs and NDVIs were used to develop yield forecasting equations using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. Calibrated and evaluated results of CERES-Maize showed the mean absolute % error (MAPE) of 0.35–6.71% for all recorded variables. In remote sensing all machine learning algorithms showed the accuracy greater the 90%, however support vector machine (SVM-radial basis) showed the higher accuracy of 97%, that was used for classification of maize area. The accuracy of area estimated through SVM-radial basis was 91%, when validated with crop reporting service. Yield forecasting results of crop model were precise with RMSE of 255 kg ha^?1, while remote sensing showed the RMSE of 397 kg ha^?1. Overall strength of relationship between estimated and actual grain yields were good with R² of 0.94 in both techniques. For regional yield forecasting remote sensing could be used due greater advantages of less input dataset and if focus is to assess specific stress, and interaction of plant genetics to soil and environmental conditions than crop model is very useful tool.     

农田水分生产率估算方法及应用

水分生产率是评价农业灌溉用水管理水平和节水效果的一个重要指标.本文利用遥感数据定量估算了流域平原区的蒸散量和干物质量,采用经验的收获指数计算了海河流域2003-2008多年平均水分生产率.通过在水资源三级分区的统计结果分析表明：遥感估算的水分生产率可以反映单方水产出的空间差异,海河流域平原平均水分生产率为0.99kg/m3,变化范围为0.02-2.13kg/m3,总体水平较低,南北差异较大。通过ET,产量和水分生产率关系的分析表明水分生产率与产量线性相关(R＝0.97),提高产量将一直是流域提高水分生产率的重要研究方向。水分生产率与产量随ET变化均为先线性增加后减小的特点,在两季作物区当年耗水量在335-575mm范围变化时,水分是影响产量和水分产出效益的关键因子,要着重提高中低产区域的水分生产率; 当耗水量超过575mm,水分不是唯一的限制因子,以提高作物的收获指数为重点。     

Sensing of moisture stress effects by infra-red thermometry in sorghum,maize and pearl millet

Field experiment was carried out on sandy loam soil with sorghum (cv. S-136), maize (cv. Ageti-76) and pearl millet (cv. PHB-14) during the summer season (may–July) of 1980 at Haryana Agricultural University Farm, Hisar. After one uniform irrigation at crop establishment, the crops were subjected to four irrigation treatments, viz. irrigation at ID/CPE (ID=irrigation depth of 7cm; CPE=cumulative pan evaporation) of 1.0, 0.6, 0.3 & 0.15. Changes in soil water potential (ψ soil), leaf water potential (ψ L), stomatal conductance (KL), canopy temperature (Tc), transpirational cooling (Canopy temperature minus air temperature, Tc-Ta), evapotranspiration (ET) and dry matter yields were recorded in different treatments. An increase in moisture stress resulted in a decrease in ψ soil, ψ L, KL, transpirational cooling, ET but increase in Tc. Tc-Ta showed significant curvilinear association with ψ soil and linear relationship with ψ L, KL, Tc, ET and dry matter yield of summer cereals. It is suggested that the mid day values of Tc-Ta as observed with an infra-red thermometer could effectively be used to sense the moisture stress effects in summer cereals.     

Assessing gaps in irrigated agricultural productivity through satellite earth observations—A case study of the Fergana Valley,Central Asia

Improving crop area and/or crop yields in agricultural regions is one of the foremost scientific challenges for the next decades. This is especially true in irrigated areas because sustainable intensification of irrigated crop production is virtually the sole means to enhance food supply and contribute to meeting food demands of a growing population. Yet, irrigated crop production worldwide is suffering from soil degradation and salinity, reduced soil fertility, and water scarcity rendering the performance of irrigation schemes often below potential. On the other hand, the scope for improving irrigated agricultural productivity remains obscure also due to the lack of spatial data on agricultural production (e.g. crop acreage and yield). To fill this gap, satellite earth observations and a replicable methodology were used to estimate crop yields at the field level for the period 2010/2014 in the Fergana Valley, Central Asia, to understand the response of agricultural productivity to factors related to the irrigation and drainage infrastructure and environment. The results showed that cropping pattern, i.e. the presence or absence of multi-annual crop rotations, and spatial diversity of crops had the most persistent effects on crop yields across observation years suggesting the need for introducing sustainable cropping systems. On the other hand, areas with a lower crop diversity or abundance of crop rotation tended to have lower crop yields, with differences of partly more than one t/ha yield. It is argued that factors related to the infrastructure, for example, the distance of farms to the next settlement or the density of roads, had a persistent effect on crop yield dynamics over time. The improvement potential of cotton and wheat yields were estimated at 5%, compared to crop yields of farms in the direct vicinity of settlements or roads. In this study it is highlighted how remotely sensed estimates of crop production in combination with geospatial technologies provide a unique perspective that, when combined with field surveys, can support planners to identify management priorities for improving regional production and/or reducing environmental impacts.     

Spatial Variability and Precision Nutrient Management in Sugarcane

Investigations were carried out to develop precision nutrient management techniques for sugarcane. The study area (800 ha) comprised of Bijapur, Bilgi and Jamakhandi talukas that lie between 16° 34′–28° 10′ N latitudes and 75° 33′–75° 37′ E longitudes and located around Nandi Sahakari Sakkare Karkhane (NSSK) Niyamit, Galagali. The soils are medium to deep black with pH and EC ranging from 7.32 to 8.36 and 0.17 to 1.13 dS/m, respectively. The soils are low to medium in available nitrogen, medium in available phosphorus and high in available potassium content. Crop condition assessment was made through analysis of LISS-III satellite images using Erdas Imagine software. Fertigation with 300 kg N and 195 kg K per ha at fortnightly interval and soil application of 32 kg P per ha as basal, recorded higher sugarcane yield (167 Mg ha^?1) as compared to 124 Mg ha^?1 obtained with soil application of 250 kg N, 32 kg P and 156 kg K per ha and flood irrigation as per the package recommended by the University(POP). Fertigation of N and K at weekly interval recorded highest NDVI value (0.354) and soil application of nutrients as per POP resulted in the lowest NDVI of 0.219.     

Yield Estimation Model and Water Productivity of Wheat Crop (Triticum aestivum) in an Irrigation Command Using Remote Sensing and GIS

Crop yield estimation has an important role on economy development and its accuracy and speed influence yield price and helps in deciding the excess or deficit production conditions. The water productivity evaluates the irrigation command through water use efficiency (WUE). Remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) techniques were used for crop yield and water productivity estimation of wheat crop (Triticum aestivum) grown in Tarafeni South Main Canal (TSMC) irrigation command of West Bengal State in India. One IRS P6 image and four wide field sensor (WiFS) images for different months of winter season were used to determine the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) for area under wheat crop. The temporally and spatially distributed spectral growth profile and AREASUM of NDVI (A_NDVI) and SAVI (A_SAVI) with time after sowing of wheat crop were developed and correlated with actual crop yield of wheat (Y_act). The developed relationships between A_SAVI and Y_act resulted high correlation in comparison to that of A_NDVI. Using the developed model the RS based wheat yield (Y_RS) predicted from A_SAVI varied on entire TSMC irrigation command from 22.67 to 33.13 q ha⁻¹ respectively, which gave an average yield of 26.50 q ha⁻¹. The RS generated yield based water use efficiency (WUE_YRS) for water supplied from canal of TSMC irrigation command was found to be 6.69 kg ha⁻¹ mm⁻¹.     

Predicting Wheat Grain and Biomass Yield Using Canopy Reflectance of Booting Stage

Field experiment was conducted in a sandy loam soil of Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi during the year 2011–13 to see the effect of irrigation, mulch and nitrogen on canopy spectral reflectance indices and their use in predicting the grain and biomass yield of wheat. The canopy reflectances were measured using a hand held ASD FieldSpec Spectroradiometer at booting stage of wheat. Four spectral reflectance indices (SRIs) viz. RNDVI (Red Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), GNDVI (Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), SR (Simple Ratio) and WI (Water Index) were computed using the spectral reflectance data. Out of these four indices, RNDVI, GNDVI and SR were significantly and positively related with the grain and biomass yield of wheat whereas WI was significantly and negatively related with the grain and biomass yield of wheat. Calibration with the second year data showed that among the SRIs, WI could account for respectively, 85 % and 86 % variation in grain and biomass yield of wheat with least RMSE (395 kg ha^?1 (15 %) for grain yield and 1609 kg ha^?1 (20 %) for biomass yield) and highest d index (0.95 for grain yield and 0.91 for biomass yield). Therefore it can be concluded that WI measured at booting stage can be successfully used for prediction of grain and biomass yield of wheat.     

Spectral signatures of moisture-stressed wheat

One of the important parameters affecting crop yield is the availability of soil moisture to the crop. Lack of it may bring about moisture stress in plants which manifests itself in terms of changes in the spectral reflectance and emittance properties of plants. An experiment involving radiometric measurements over six wheat plots subjected to different irrigation schedules was conducted to test this hypothesis. Vegetation index defined in terms of crop reflectances in 0.6 to 0.7 and 0.8 to 1,1 micrometer bands was found to be a sensitive parameter to distinguish normal plants from moisture-stressed plants. The optimum period for the discrimination of such plants through remote sensing techniques has been indicated to be 45–80 days after sowing. The experiment also demonstrates that yield per unit area is linearly related to the maximum leaf-area index of the crop thus providing a possible method of crop yield prediction.     

GEE环境下的玉米低温冷害损失快速评估

大范围、及时、准确的灾害损失评估与制图对防灾减灾、农业保险和粮食安全等至关重要。针对传统灾害损失评估方法空间尺度单一、泛化能力差、时效性低,可操作性弱等问题,本文建立了一种遥感产品耦合作物模型的多尺度的灾害损失评估方法MDLA （a Multiscale Disaster Loss Assessment）。该方法利用作物模型的多情景模拟产生大量的灾害样本,结合对应日期的遥感指标构建灾害脆弱性模型,依托Google Earth Engine（GEE）平台将其应用到高分辨率遥感影像和格点灾害指标进行逐象元评估。以鄂伦春自治旗玉米为例,基于精细校准的CERES-Maize模型的模拟,利用两个生长季窗口的LAI和冷积温（CDD）建立统计模型来刻画低温对最终产量的影响,结合Sentinel-2数据逐格点计算完成高精度损失制图。结果显示,校准后的CERES-Maize模拟物候和产量的NRMSE 分别为3.3%和8.9%。冷害情景模拟结果表明不同类型和生育期的低温冷害对玉米产量的影响不尽相同,其中生长峰值期（出苗—吐丝和吐丝—灌浆）最为敏感。回代检验显示,MDLA方法估算精度为11.4%,与历史冷害年份的实际损失相吻合。经评估,鄂伦春2018-08-09的冷害导致玉米减产23.7%,受灾面积1.86×10⁴ ha,其中高海拔地区损失较重（减产率>25%）,低温冷害对该区玉米生产构成了严重的威胁。与现有的统计回归、作物模型模拟以及同化等技术相比,其优势在于：（1）结合遥感观测和作物模型模拟技术能更好地刻画了灾害对产量的影响过程;（2）利用GEE平台快速处理海量遥感数据,提高了灾害损失评估的时效性;（3）不受地面实测数据的限制,易操作,可实现动态、多尺度（象元、田块、村,县等）的损失评估,这为防灾减损、维持粮食丰产稳产提供了保障,也为农业保险的业务化运行提供了思路。     

Remote sensing based yield monitoring: Application to winter wheat in United States and Ukraine

Accurate and timely crop yield forecasts are critical for making informed agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Earth observation data from space can contribute to agricultural monitoring, including crop yield assessment and forecasting. In this study, we present a new crop yield model based on the Difference Vegetation Index (DVI) extracted from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data at 1 km resolution and the un-mixing of DVI at coarse resolution to a pure wheat signal (100% of wheat within the pixel). The model was applied to estimate the national and subnational winter wheat yield in the United States and Ukraine from 2001 to 2017. The model at the subnational level shows very good performance for both countries with a coefficient of determination higher than 0.7 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of lower than 0.6 t/ha (15–18%). At the national level for the United States (US) and Ukraine the model provides a strong coefficient of determination of 0.81 and 0.86, respectively, which demonstrates good performance at this scale. The model was also able to capture low winter wheat yields during years with extreme weather events, for example 2002 in US and 2003 in Ukraine. The RMSE of the model for the US at the national scale is 0.11 t/ha (3.7%) while for Ukraine it is 0.27 t/ha (8.4%).     

Evaluation of potential crop productivity based on remote sensing and agro-ecological zones around the world

Human diets strongly rely on wheat, maize, rice and soybean; research on the potential crop productivity of these four main crops could provide the basis for increasing global crop yields. The evaluation model of realistic potential crop productivity based on remote sensing and agro-ecological zones was proposed in this study to provide reliable reference data for world food security. The statistical data on these four main crops yields were obtained from the FAO. The model was used to investigate the potential production of four staple crops in the world. The distributions of the realistic potential productivity of four staple crops (winter wheat, maize, rice and soybean) were produced. In the main producing countries of the four staple crops, statistical analysis was conducted on the realistic potential productivity (RPP) of the four staple crops, the highest productivity (HP) during the period 1983–2011 and the gap between RPP and HP.