Loading effects in Metsähovi from the atmosphere and the Baltic Sea

Loading by atmosphere and by the Baltic Sea cause gravity change at Metsähovi, located 15 km from the open sea. Gravity is changed by both the Newtonian attraction of the loading mass and by the crustal deformation. We have performed loading calculations using appropriate Green's function for both gravity and deformation, for both atmospheric and Baltic loading. The loading by atmosphere has been computed using a detailed surface pressure field from high resolution limited area model (HIRLAM) for north Europe up to 10° distances. Baltic Sea level is modelled using tide gauge records. Calculations show that 1 m of uniform layer of water corresponds to 31 nm s⁻² in gravity and −11 mm in height. Modelled loading is compared with observations of the superconducting gravimeter T020 for years 1994–2002. The combination of HIRLAM and a tide gauge record decreases RMS of gravity residuals by 14% compared to single admittance in air pressure corrections without sea level data. Regression of gravity residuals on the tide gauge record at Helsinki (at 30 km distance) gives a gravity effect of 26 nm s⁻² m⁻¹ for Baltic loading.The gravity station is co-located with a permanent GPS station. We have also associated the loading effects of the atmosphere and of the Baltic Sea with temporal height variations. The range of modelled vertical motion due to air pressure was 46 mm and that due to sea level 18 mm. The total range was 38 mm. The effects of the Baltic Sea and of the atmosphere partly cancel each other, since at longer periods the inverse barometer assumption is valid. Regression of the modelled height on local air pressure gives −0.37 mm hPa⁻¹, corresponding approximately to width 6° for pressure system.We have tested the models using one year of daily GPS data. Multilinear regression on local air pressure and sea level in Helsinki gives the coefficient −0.34 mm hPa⁻¹ for pressure, and −11 mm m⁻¹ for sea level. These match model values. Loading by air pressure and Baltic Sea explains nearly 40% of the variance of daily GPS height solutions.     

Geodetic observation of sea-level change and crustal deformation in the Baltic Sea region

Based on tide gauge observations spanning almost 200 years, homogeneous time series of the mean relative sea level were derived for nine sites at the southern coast of the Baltic Sea. Our regionally concentrated data were complemented by long-term relative sea-level records retrieved from the data base of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL). From these records relative sea-level change rates were derived at 51 tide gauge stations for the period between 1908 and 2007. A minimum observation time of 60 years is required for the determination of reliable sea-level rates. At present, no anthropogenic acceleration in sea-level rise is detected in the tide gauge observations in the southern Baltic. The spatial variation of the relative sea-level rates reflects the fingerprint of GIA-induced crustal uplift. Time series of extreme sea levels were also inferred from the tide gauge records. They were complemented by water level information from historic storm surge marks preserved along the German Baltic coast. Based on this combined dataset the incidence and spatial variation of extreme sea levels induced by storm surges were analysed yielding important information for hazard assessments. Permanent GPS observations were used to determine recent crustal deformation rates for 44 stations in the Baltic Sea region. The GPS derived height change rates were applied to reduce the relative sea-level changes observed by tide gauges yielding an estimate for the eustatic sea-level change. For 13 tide gauge-GPS colocation sites a mean eustatic sea-level trend of 1.3 mm/a was derived for the last 100 years.     

Fortnightly oscillations observed in the Adriatic Sea

This paper documents the occurrence of strong fortnightly oscillations in the Adriatic Sea frequently observed in the current measurements. For that purpose, we analyzed half-decadal sea level series and long-term currents collected within different parts and layers of the Adriatic Sea. Harmonic analysis and band-pass filter with cutoff periods at 10 and 20 days have been applied to the series. The sea level Mf tide is found to be the only significant tidal constituent over periods between the diurnal and semi-annual ones, having no significant phase variations in the Adriatic Sea. Moreover, the currents on periods between 10 and 20 days could only partially be explained by atmospheric forcing. The fact that they are in-phase with the Mf tide gives a hint on a possible mechanism responsible for the generation of these oscillations. Additionally, these currents are usually strongly amplified during a weakly stratified season, indicating a baroclinic mechanism responsible for the multiplication of the fortnightly currents.     

中国近海海平面季节尺度变化的时频分析

用连续小波变换方法，对中国近海验潮站资料(20～30a)和Topex/Poseidon卫星测高海平面变化资料(1992年10月～1998年9月)进行分析，给出了南海、黄海和东海海平面变化在季节尺度上的时频特征. 结果表明，黄海和东海的海平面变化较相似，存在显著的周年和准双月的振荡信号；南海具有较明显的周年信号和较弱的半年周期信号；浅海区和深海区的海平面季节尺度变化在周期性与强度上存在明显差异.     

Structure of Réunion Island (Indian Ocean) inferred from the interpretation of gravity anomalies

Réunion is a volcanic edifice whose origin is related to a hot spot in the Indian Ocean. Only 3% of its volume is emergent. Many geological and geophysical studies were carried out on Réunion Island during the 1980's but few of them allow study of the internal structure of the edifice. Several gravity surveys have been carried out on the island since 1976 and we have compiled the available data set. The lack of data on the western side of the island led us to conduct a regional survey in 1993 to obtain a more homogeneous distribution of the stations. Computation of Bouguer anomalies for different correction densities accounts for the variable density of the rocks constituting the edifice and provides a distribution of gravity anomalies interpreted as dense bodies of intrusive rocks inside the edifice. Two very large intrusive complexes can be unambiguously recognised: one beneath Piton des Neiges and one beneath the Grand Brûlé area. Both have been penetrated by geothermal exploration drill holes and the first is also known from outcrop observations. 2.5D simple models were constructed to reveal the geometry and extent of the buried intrusives. They are deeply rooted, extending several kilometres below sea level, and extensive (20–25 km long and 10–13 km wide for the Piton des Neiges complex, 12–15 km long and some kilometres wide for the Grand Brûlé complex). The development of such complexes implies that the activity of the two volcanic centres was long lasting and remained stable while the volcanoes were growing. The Grand Brûlé complex has been interpreted as relics of an old volcano named Alizés Volcano. The interpretation of the gravity maps suggests the presence of a ridge of dense rocks to the North of the axis joining the centres of Piton des Neiges and Piton de la Fournaise volcanoes. By analogy with the other structures, 2.5D models show that this structure would culminate between 0 and 1 km below sea level and be 15 km wide. This complex induces a maximum anomaly in Takamaka Valley and we thus propose to name it Takamaka Volcano. No geological evidence of the nature of these dense rocks is available but the ridge coincides with structures revealed by magnetic and seismic data. Interpretation of the Bouguer anomaly maps suggests that the inner gravity structure of Piton de la Fournaise is not characterised by the presence of a voluminous dense body but probably by more restricted concentrations of dense rocks. Some structures can be recognised: along the present NE and SE rift zones and in the previous central part of Piton de la Fournaise to the West of the present summit. The recent eastward migration of the centre of activity of Piton de la Fournaise accounts for the lack of a large positive anomaly beneath the active craters.     

Crustal microdeformations and tides in the coastal zone of the Sea of Japan

Based on experimental data and numerical modeling, the possible mechanisms of the effect of internal gravitational waves within the range of periods from tidal values to a few tens of minutes on crustal microdeformations in the coastal zone of the Sea of Japan are examined. The spectral analysis of oscillations in the sea level and microdeformations recorded in various seasons reveals common maximums of energy at diumal and semidiurnal periods, but the coincidence of the maximums at shorter periods is random and varies with time. The phase shifts between the surface tide and crustal deformations are also unstable in time. To explain the observed interrelations between the processes at sea and in the Earth’s crust, we modeled numerically the generation of internal tides, bores, and packets of short internal waves in terms of a nonlinear model of shallow water. It is shown that the observed effects can be caused (1) by the resonance between the wavelength of the internal tide and the shelf width and (2) by the reflection of bores and internal wave packets from a steep bottom and rocky shores or by their collapse.     

An analysis of the salt water inflow into the Baltic in 1975 to 1976

Time series measurements from light vessel and coastal stations in the transition area of the Kattegat and the Baltic Sea are analyzed for the period August 1975 to March 1976. The data consist of daily sampled salinities from different depth levels and daily means of sea levels, surface current, and wind, respectively. The purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamics of the mass- and salt-transport during a major salt water inflow.The principal conclusions of this paper are that

Regional characteristics of the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the sea level in the China Sea

Based on coastal tide level, satellite altimetry, and sea surface temperature (SST) data of offshore areas of China’s coast and the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the regional characteristics of the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the sea level in the China Sea were investigated. Singular value decomposition results show a significant teleconnection between the sea level in the China Sea and the SST of the tropical Pacific Ocean; the correlation coefficient decreases from south to north. Data from tide gauges along China’s coast show that the seasonal sea-level variations are significantly correlated with the ENSO. In addition, China’s coast was divided into three regions based on distinctive regional characteristics. Results obtained show that the annual amplitude of sea level was low during El Niño developing years, and especially so during the El Niño year. The ENSO intensity determined the response intensity of the annual amplitude of the sea level. The response region (amplitude) was relatively large for strong ENSO intensities. Significant oscillation periods at a timescale of 4–7 years existed in the sea level of the three regions. The largest amplitude of oscillation was 1.5 cm, which was the fluctuation with the 7-year period in the South China Sea. The largest amplitude of oscillation in the East China Sea was about 1.3 cm. The amplitude of oscillation with the 6-year period in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea was the smallest (less than 1 cm).     

南海地区地震背景噪声成像与壳幔深部结构

利用南海地区28个陆地地震台站和2个布设于太平岛和东沙岛的新增海岛地震台站2011—2016年间的连续地震背景噪声波形数据,使用互相关方法计算得到了台站间的互相关函数,并提取出Rayleigh面波群速度和相速度频散曲线.采用快速行进和子空间方法反演获得了南海及周边地区12～40s周期的Rayleigh面波群速度和相速度图像,并联合反演得到了研究区深至60km的三维S波速度结构.考虑到南海数千米厚海水层对于面波频散反演的严重影响,本文在反演模型中加入了水层,显著提高了反演结果的可靠性.成像结果表明:南海及周边地区地壳上地幔顶部S波速度结构存在显著的横向不均匀性,并与这一区域的主要构造单元具有较好的空间对应关系.在5～10km深度,莺歌海—宋红盆地区的低速异常特征可能与盆地较厚的沉积层有关.在5～15km深度,海域高速异常区与海盆空间位置具有高度一致性,推测与海盆区地壳厚度相对陆缘区明显偏薄有关.当深度从20km增加至30km,海盆区的高速特征扩展至了陆缘地区,反映了地壳厚度从海盆至陆缘逐渐增厚的趋势,与OBS(海底地震仪)深地震剖面给出的地壳精细结构结果一致.至35～60km深度,海盆的高速异常特征依然明显,且速度值随深度增加整体呈现上升的趋势,推测南海海盆区的岩石圈厚度应该大于60km.     

Non-seismological indications of recent tectonic activity in the West Bohemia earthquake swarm region

The West Bohemia seismoactive region is characterised by repeated occurrence of earthquake swarms with the strongest event of magnitude M=4.5 recorded during the 1985/1986 swarm. In the 1990s, complex observations of some geodynamic parameters have been introduced. Special attention was paid to geodetic measurements, using the techniques of precise levelling and GPS. In the most active focal zone of the region, vertical movements were distributed with an organised pattern during swarm periods but randomly during quiet periods. The GPS data have not shown any systematic trend of horizontal displacements yet. Consistent compression-like indications were obtained between 1998 and 1999 campaigns, followed by a reverse displacement in the subsequent 2000 swarm period. Temporal gravity changes were analysed from a set of data recorded twice a year since 1993. During the last three swarm periods in December 1994, January 1997 and Autumn 2000, significant temporal variations were observed in the most active focal zone of the region. On the contrary, during seismically quiet periods only weak signals of gravity changes were recorded. The variations probably reflected strain evolution in the upper crust with possible effect of fluid migration and mass displacement on gravity. The groundwater level has been recorded in 2 wells. The water level changes differ significantly in their characteristics. Water level record of the first well provides a smooth curve with a noticeable minimum coinciding exactly with the December 1994 swarm and with some changes before the January 1997 and after the Autumn 2000 swarms. The water level record of the other well reflects significant earth tide and air pressure effects. After a complex analysis, sharp residual signals indicated the first strong, macroseismically recorded, events of the Autumn 2000 swarm.     

Studying Long-term Variations in the Caspian Sea with the Use of the Theory of Stochastic Differential Equations

Nonlinear mechanisms of long-term variations in the Caspian Sea level are described. It is shown that with account taken of the dependence of the evaporation depth from the Volga basin surface on soil moisture content and the dependence of the evaporation depth from the sea surface on its level, we obtain a fundamentally new (chaotic) oscillation mechanism with several attraction levels. The stochastic differential equations describing the water budget of the sea basin and the sea proper and the respective solutions of the Fokker–Planck–Kolmogorov equation are shown to have stationary bimodal density of the level probability. The random process, characterizing the sea level variations at a nonlinear dependence between the evaporation rate and the level is found to be non-Gaussian. Noise-induced transitions, caused by nonlinear evaporation processes are described. A new nonlinear stochastic theory describing the Caspian Sea level variations and based on predicted physical effects is suggested.     

Long-Term variations in water levels in the Volga mouth area and their dependence on the Caspian Sea level variations

Long-term water level variations in the Volga mouth area and the effect exerted on them by the river’s flow and the Caspian Sea’s level variations are considered. Quantitative relationships were identified between the mean annual water levels at different gages in the mouth and the sea level. A backwater component was isolated in the long-term variations in water level in the Volga mouth area. Relationships between the daily water levels in the mouth and the Caspian Sea’s level at fixed water flow in the delta apex are presented. The magnitude and the propagation distance of backwater from the sea into the delta are specified. The responses of the mouth areas of rivers emptying into the Caspian Sea to sea level variations in the past century are compared.     

Sea level extremes in Marseille (NW Mediterranean) during 1885–2008

Sea level extremes and their temporal variability have been explored based on the hourly measurements at Marseille tide gauge for the period 1885–2008. A careful quality check has first been applied to the observations to ensure consistency of the record by eliminating outliers and datum shifts. Yearly percentiles have been used to investigate long-term trends of extremes revealing that secular variations in extremes are linked to mean sea level changes. The associated decadal changes show discrepancies between mean sea level trend and extreme fluctuations, due to the influence of the atmospheric forcing. A local regression model based on the generalized Pareto distribution has been applied to derive trends in return levels. The 50-years return levels reach values between 80 and 120 cm. The most significant changes in return levels are characterized by an increase since the 1970s.     

强震前海平面异常变化特征研究

使用渤海沿岸8个验潮站的海潮潮位观测资料,根据近海或沿岸地区强震前后海平面变化的实例,分析了海平面变化的前兆意义。资料证实,大部分近海大地震前局部海域存在着可以识别的海平面异常变化。通过周期分析方法和潮汐分析方法来消除各种周期及非周期因素的影响,可以显示出地壳垂直形变的变化,分析结果表明,渤海沿岸的海平面变化不仅具有丰富的地质构造活动信息,而且可能反映较大地震前后的地壳形变过程。提取海平面地壳垂直形变信息对较大地震的预报和与海洋有关灾害的预测有重要意义。     

The sea level at Port-aux-Français,Kerguelen Island,from 1949 to the present

Relative sea level rise at Kerguelen Island over the last 55 years has been investigated using a combination of historical and recent tide gauge data. The best estimate of relative sea level trend from data sets spanning 38 years is estimated to be 1.1±0.7 mm year^?1. We have tried to quantify the error budget due to some of the possible sources of uncertainty. As expected, the main source of uncertainty comes from oceanic interannual variability, preventing an accurate estimate of sea level trend over short record lengths. However, our values are reasonably consistent with other reported southern hemisphere sea level trends for similar time periods.     

Loading effect of a self-consistent equilibrium ocean pole tide on the gravimetric parameters of the gravity pole tides at superconducting gravimeter stations

The gravimetric parameters of the gravity pole tide are the amplitude factor δ, which is the ratio of gravity variations induced by polar motion for a real Earth to variations computed for a rigid one, and the phase difference κ between the observed and the rigid gravity pole tide. They can be estimated from the records of superconducting gravimeters (SGs). However, they are affected by the loading effect of the ocean pole tide. Recent results from TOPEX/Poseidon (TP) altimeter confirm that the ocean pole tide has a self-consistent equilibrium response. Accordingly, we calculate the gravity loading effects as well as their influence on the gravimetric parameters of gravity pole tide at all the 26 SG stations in the world on the assumption of a self-consistent equilibrium ocean pole tide model. The gravity loading effect is evaluated between 1 January 1997 and 31 December 2006. Numerical results show that the amplitude of the gravity loading effect reaches 10⁻⁹ m s⁻², which is larger than the accuracy (10⁻¹⁰ m s⁻²) of a SG. The gravimetric factor δ is 1% larger at all SG stations. Then, the contribution of a self-consistent ocean pole tide to the pole tide gravimetric parameters cannot be ignored as it exceeds the current accuracy of the estimation of the pole tide gravity factors. For the nine stations studied in Ducarme et al. [Ducarme, B., Venedikov, A.P., Arnoso, J., et al., 2006. Global analysis of the GGP superconducting gravimeters network for the estimation of the pole tide gravimetric amplitude factor. J. Geodyn. 41, 334–344.], the mean of the modeled tidal factors δ_m = 1.1813 agrees very well with the result of a global analysis δ_CH = 1.1816 ± 0.0047 in that paper. On the other hand, the modeled phase difference κ_m varies from −0.273° to 0.351°. Comparing to the two main periods of the gravity pole tide, annual period and Chandler period, κ_m is too small to be considered. Therefore, The computed time difference κ_L induced by a self-consistent ocean pole tide produces a negligible effect on κ_m. It confirms the results of Ducarme et al., 2006, where no convincing time difference was found in the SG records.     

The future of the western Baltic Sea: two possible scenarios

Globally coupled climate models are generally capable of reproducing the observed trends in the globally averaged atmospheric temperature. However, the global models do not perform as well on regional scales. Here, we present results from four 100-year, high-resolution ocean model experiments (resolution less than 1 km) for the western Baltic Sea. The forcing is taken from a regional atmospheric model and a regional ocean model, imbedded into two global greenhouse gas emission scenarios, A1B and B1, for the period of 2000 to 2100 with each two realisations. Two control runs from 1960 to 2000 are used for validation. For both scenarios, the results show a warming with an increase of 0.5–2.5 K at the sea surface and 0.7–2.8 K below 40 m. The simulations further indicate a decrease in salinity by 1.5–2 practical salinity units. The increase in water temperature leads to a prolongation of heat waves based on present-day thresholds. This amounts to a doubling or even tripling of the heat wave duration. The simulations show a decrease in inflow events (barotropic/baroclinic), which will affect the deepwater generation and ventilation of the central Baltic Sea. The high spatial resolution allows us to diagnose the inflow events and the mechanism that will cause future changes. The reduction in barotropic inflow events correlates well with the increase in westerly winds. The changes in the baroclinic inflows can be consistently explained by the reduction of calm wind periods and thus a weakening of the necessary stratification in the western Baltic Sea and the Danish Straits.     

Current Desalination of the Sea of Azov and Its Correlation with Long-Term Variations in Atmospheric Circulation

Correlation is established between the long-term variations in the frequency of the atmospheric circulation forms, water balance elements, and the Sea of Azov water salinity. It is found that the river runoff into the sea and the sea freshwater balance increase and the sea salinity decreases in the periods, when northern and western forms of atmospheric processes develop; in the periods with a greater frequency of the eastern type of atmospheric macroprocesses, the situation is reverse. It is also found that the effect of atmospheric circulation on the sea salinity tends to strengthen, whereas the effect of the human-induced decrease in river runoff tends to diminish. The current desalination of the Sea of Azov down to 10.5 is shown to be mainly due to the development of western and northern forms of atmospheric circulation in the cold season of a year during the last 10–15 years.     

A three-dimensional model of the Baltic Shield crust from data of deep seismic studies

A 3-D velocity structure of the crust has been constructed for almost the entire Baltic Shield area from data of extensive deep seismic studies on the shield. The construction involved a revision of all primary data (record sections and observed traveltime curves) obtained in this region over 50 years of research. Comparative analysis of wave fields revealed that three reference reflectors traceable throughout the shield area are K1 (a boundary velocity of 6.4–6.5 km/s), K2 (～6.8 km/s), and the mantle surface M (8.0–8.2 km/s). The resulting 3-D velocity structure is represented in the form of structural maps of these surfaces and a velocity distribution scheme in the upper crust. Using this general basic model, seismic cross sections are constructed by means of mathematical modeling along all profiles. They showed that, in addition to the main layers and reflectors above the K1 boundary, a lower velocity layer is traceable almost everywhere and the majority of deep faults flatten out toward this layer. On the whole, lateral variations in the velocity structure of the crust are small up to a depth of 40 km. The variations are most significant in the M topography: its average depth being 40–45 km, two deep (down to 50–60 km) depressions exist in southern Finland and the Baltic region. The origin of this depression filled with high velocity (7.2–7.4 km/s) rocks remains unclear.     

Structure of the crust in the Black Sea and adjoining regions from surface wave data

Group velocities of Rayleigh and Love waves along the paths across the Black Sea and partly Asia Minor and the Balkan Peninsula are used to estimate lateral variations of the crustal structure in the region. As a first step, lateral variations of group velocities for periods in the range 10–20 s are determined using a 2D tomography method. Since the paths are oriented predominantly in NE–SW or N–S direction, the resolution is estimated as a function of azimuth. The local dispersion curves are actually averaged over the extended areas stretched in the predominant direction of the paths. The size of the averaging area in the direction of the best resolution is approximately 200 km. As a second step, the local averaged dispersion curves are inverted to vertical sections of S-wave velocities. Since the dispersion curves in the 10–20 s period range are mostly affected by the upper crustal structure, the velocities are estimated to a depth of approximately 25 km. Velocity sections along 43° N latitude are determined separately from Rayleigh and Love wave data. It is shown that the crust under the sea contains a low-velocity sedimentary layer of 2–3 km thickness, localized in the eastern and western deeps, as found earlier from DSS data. Beneath the sedimentary layer, two layers are present with velocity values lying between those of granite and consolidated sediments. Velocities in these layers are slightly lower in the deeps, and the boundaries of the layers are lowered. S-wave velocities obtained from Love wave data are found to be larger than those from Rayleigh wave data, the difference being most pronounced in the basaltic layer. If this difference is attributed to anisotropy, the anisotropy coefficient = (SH - SV)/Smean is reasonable (2–3%) in the upper layers, and exceeds 9% in the basaltic layer.