北京香山\

应用葵花8号卫星资料,结合NCEP FNL再分析、GNSS遥感水汽、风廓线雷达、全国智能网格实况融合分析资料,对2017年7月14日和2018年8月7日沈阳两次暴雨过程（分别简称过程Ⅰ和过程Ⅱ）中对流云特征进行了比较分析,重点探讨了对流云的触发维持机制与影响降水特征差异的因素。结果表明：（1）两次过程分别为局地突发暴雨和区域性极端暴雨,沈阳市区暴雨均由两个对流云团引发,对流云团合并使得降水持续。过程Ⅱ云团合并发生在其移动方向的后侧,具有后向传播特征,合并云团沿其长轴方向移动影响沈阳市,使降水时间延长。（2）在降水前至降水初期,过程Ⅰ对流云顶和水汽层顶快速上升且云顶迅速超过水汽层顶,而过程Ⅱ亮温下降缓慢。短时强降水发生前红外和水汽亮温同步快速降至-60℃,可作为提前预判对流云团产生短时强降水的参考指标。10 min雨量大于10 mm的对流云云顶集中分布在红外亮温低于-55℃、亮温差为-5~0℃的范围。（3）两次过程中,沈阳市分别位于东北冷涡后部和副热带高压北缘。过程Ⅰ,探空曲线呈“X”型,CAPE高达2 584 J·kg^-1,造成对流云深厚,云底以下干层导致雨滴蒸发,使降水强度减弱,该过程高强度降水仅发生在对流云团合并加强阶段。过程Ⅱ,云底到地面湿层明显,保证了雨滴降至地面,产生相同量级降水的云团的TBB比过程Ⅰ高。（4）强降水发生前,地面风场存在明显辐合,当大气可降水量2 h内跃增8 mm时,站点出现强降水;局地水汽跃增可能是低空西南气流偏南分量增大或偏北冷空气侵入到暖湿空气中所致。

     

On the modification of the dynamics in the environment of severe thunderstorms

Summary A detailed study of widespread thunderstorm activity occurring in winter over the central and coastal parts of Egypt (Cairo 30° N, Marsa Matruh 31° N) is presented. The storm activity is associated with strong positive vorticity in the 300/200 mb layer. The maximum kinetic energy was located at the storm centre. The divergent wind component was found to be very important in energy transformation and a major cause of energy generation by cross contour flow.With 3 Figures     

东北冷涡引发的强雷暴个例分析

2013年6月3日辽宁省境内出现剧烈的雷电活动,在17 h内观测到落雷14 103次。使用静止卫星和多普勒雷达探测数据显示雷暴系统的发展特征,计算了该过程中辽宁省境内单位面积落雷密度,并对雷暴的生成环境和WRF-3.5.1模拟的雷暴云中冰晶、霰和雨滴等粒子数浓度的空间分布状态进行了探讨。结果表明:低空急流为雷暴过程的发展输送暖湿空气,形成强烈的对流运动;高空急流右侧和右前侧的下沉干冷空气进入0~-20℃雷暴云起电层区域,东北冷涡高低空急流形成的强垂直风切变造成雷暴云体上下出现较大角度的倾斜,高频次负地闪的发生与雷暴云体倾斜造成的特定电场结构有关;负主电荷积累区域和落雷区出现在上升气流较弱的带负电粒子沉降区域。     

The behavior of total lightning activity in severe Florida thunderstorms

The development of a new observational system called LISDAD (Lightning Imaging Sensor Demonstration and Display) has enabled a study of severe weather in central Florida. The total flash rates for storms verified to be severe are found to exceed 60 fpm, with some values reaching 500 fpm. Similar to earlier results for thunderstorm microbursts, the peak flash rate precedes the severe weather at the ground by 5–20 min. A distinguishing feature of severe storms is the presence of lightning ‘jumps' — abrupt increases in flash rate in advance of the maximum rate for the storm. The systematic total lightning precursor to severe weather of all kinds — wind, hail, tornadoes — is interpreted in terms of the updraft that sows the seeds aloft for severe weather at the surface and simultaneously stimulates the ice microphysics that drives the intracloud lightning activity.     

雷暴与强对流临近天气预报技术进展

临近预报指0—6h(0—2h为重点)的高时空分辨率的天气预报,预报对象是该时段内出现明显变化的天气现象,主要包括雷暴、强对流、降水、冬季暴风雪、冻雨、沙尘暴、低能见度(雾)、天空云量等,其中,以雷暴和强对流天气的临近预报最具挑战性。综述了针对雷暴和强对流天气的以主观预报为主、结合客观算法的临近预报技术,同时讨论了高分辨率数值预报模式在临近预报中的应用。主观临近预报技术包括基于多普勒天气雷达观测数据并结合其他资料(常规高空和地面观测、气象卫星云图、快速同化循环的数值预报产品等)对雷暴生成、发展和衰减,特别是对强对流天气(包括强冰雹、龙卷、雷暴大风和对流性暴雨)的临近预报,客观算法包括几种应用最广的雷达回波或云图外推算法和强对流天气识别技术。高分辨率数值预报模式的应用包括与雷达回波外推融合延长临近预报时效,与各种观测资料融合得到快速更新的三维格点资料为雷暴和强对流近风暴环境的判断提供重要参考。     

用地球静止气象卫星云图分析我国几类强雷暴天气

夏季的雷暴、冰雹、大风等强对流天气,尺度小,生命史短,用常规的天气观测资料分析它们的活动存在着一定的困难。然而,地球静止气象卫星(GMS)云图为我们提供了连续观测这些对流活动的一种可能性。本文主要是利用三小时一次的GMS云图资料,分析了1978年6—8月份我国大陆上的六类雷暴天气,阐述了强雷暴活动的云图特征。指出,假若有30分钟一次的GMS云图,则对夏季大陆上强雷暴的分析和监视更为有利。     

Discriminant analysis applied to the forecasting of thunderstorms

Summary The combination of several thermodynamic variables based upon the data provided by a radiosounding can be useful for the forecasting of thunderstorms. As a matter of fact, there are many indices that allow the establishment of a storm risk prediction once they have been gauged. The problem comes when not all indices lead to the same prediction. In these cases, it is necessary to establish one single function based on the information provided by all the variables employed, which should be able to determine a two-fold prediction: risk or no risk. This article presents a statistic model for the short tem prediction of thunderstorms in the region of León (Spain). To reach this aim 15 meteorological variables were selected. These variables were easy to handle by non-expert staff, and they allowed the characterisation of the preconvective environment early in the morning on thunderstorm days. The variables have been properly combined and gauged with the help of a dense network of meteorological observers. The result has led to the construction of a reliable model. The discriminant quadratic model has been easily applied to determine in an objective and binary way the risk/no risk for the occurrence of thunderstorms.With 5 Figures     

Costs and benefits of tropical cyclones,severe thunderstorms and bushfires in Australia

The historical frequency, distribution and impact of tropical cyclones, severe thunderstorms and bushfires in Australia are discussed. Although the climatological record of frequency and distribution is incomplete for some hazards, this information is more reliable than that available on the impacts of the hazards. Insurance payout costs form the best quantitative measure of negative impacts, but such figures represent only a fraction of the true costs of damage from severe weather. For tropical cyclones the insurance payout since 1967 has been $1715 million, for severe thunderstorms $1808 million and for bushfires $488 million. Tropical cyclones and storms each result in the loss of 4 to 6 lives each year, while bushfires have an average annual death toll of about 10. Although significant benefits arising from severe weather events can also be identified, quantitative estimates of their alue are not available.     

基于RS和GIS的地质灾害易发性定量评价:以湖北省五峰县为例

为了提高我国不同区域、不同气候条件下受降雨影响产生的滑坡地质灾害预警预报水平,通过对近30 a国内外降雨型滑坡地质灾害预警预报主要研究成果的回顾,总结其预警预报的相关方法和手段,重点分析了在降雨型滑坡地质灾害预警预报研究与业务中常用的三类方法（即数学统计分析法、理论模型评价法、数值模拟法）的优缺点与适用范围,以期为今后国内科研业务人员开展降雨型滑坡地质灾害预警预报研究和业务工作提供参考依据。

     

雷达地物回波模糊逻辑识别法的改进及效果检验

地物回波是影响中国新一代天气雷达资料质量的一个非常重要的因素。用模糊逻辑的算法,从识别降水回波和地物回波的特征参数中,选择了效果较好的6个特征参数。根据降水回波与地物回波的特征差异,进行模糊化处理,得出每个象素是地物的可能性,对超出地物阈值的象素点则识别剔除。并针对以前方法对镶嵌在降水中的地物以及小尺度对流云地物过度抑制的问题进行了改进:一是通过在剔除地物回波的基础上增加了回波填补的功能,将降水区域中的"回波空洞"进行有效填补;二是将地物判别阈值由固定的常数变为随距离变化的函数,减小对流云特别是小尺度强对流云边缘地物的过渡抑制。最后用统计平均法检验了整个质量控制算法,通过比较天津雷达质量控制前后的回波强度累加平均图,表明该算法对地物回波有显著的识别效果。     

1973—2012年承德市雷暴气候特征分析

基于1973—2012年承德市9个地面气象观测站逐日雷暴观测资料,利用线性分析、突变分析、小波分析等统计方法,对承德市雷暴日数变化特征进行分析。结果表明:承德市雷暴日数呈现出由西向东递减的空间分布特征,大部分地区处于"中雷区",丰宁、滦平、承德市达到"多雷区"级别;全市年平均雷暴日数为39.5d,最多年为55.3d,而最少年为27.6d;1973—2012年承德市雷暴日数呈现显著减少趋势,平均10a减少2d左右,并于2006年发生突变;承德市雷暴发生存在明显季节差异,高发期主要集中在夏季,呈单峰型分布,7月雷暴日出现最多;初雷日一般出现在4月上旬,近40a呈显著推迟趋势,终雷日一般出现在10月中旬;雷暴日数存在明显的年际变化,且呈现出4~6a周期振荡。     

Modeling the electric structures of two thunderstorms and their contributions to the global circuit

This study examines the electricity in two thunderstorms, typical for their respective locales (the Great Plains and the New Mexico mountains), by modeling them as a set of steady-state horizontal layers of external currents. The model electric sources, corresponding to the charge separation processes in the thundercloud, are embedded in an exponential conducting atmosphere. The source parameters are determined by fitting the model electric field to measured profiles. The resulting currents to the ionosphere (i.e., the Wilson current) from the two storms are 0.53 A and 0.16 A, while the calculated electrical energies of the storms are 2.3 × 10¹⁰ J and 2.8 × 10⁹ J, respectively. The more vigorous storm is estimated to transfer 16 000 C in the global circuit during 8.5 h of its lifetime, while the weaker mountain storm transferred about 1200 C in its entire 2-h lifetime. Removal of the screening charge layer from above the updraft region in one modeled storm leads to only a small increase in the net Wilson current of less than 3%, while it provides a substantial local disturbance of the electric field. Overall, the model findings indicate that differences in the Wilson currents and electrical energies of the two storms result from differences in their internal dynamical and electrical structures as well as their geographical locations.     

Morphological classification pertaining to validate the climatology and category of thunderstorms over Kolkata,India

As the world's highest and largest plateau, the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau has experienced a greater warming than the Northern Hemisphere and global averages. This warming has been reported to exhibit an elevation-dependent pattern. However, the finding involved plenty of uncertainties caused by the spatially limited datasets and complex topography. Here, we explored an approach integrating satellite-derived LST data and ground records to generate a spatially continuous air temperature dataset for the plateau grasslands from 2003 to 2012, and then examined influences of elevation/topography on temperature change trends. The derived temperature dataset was validated to be closely correlated with field-station records. Based on the derived spatially continuous temperature datasets, we found an opposite change trend of annually average temperature between Qinghai and Xizang Province. The contrasted trend was obvious in daytime and more so in summer season. By analyzing the temperature trend in relation to elevation, we found an enhanced temperature change trend in higher elevation than in lower elevation for autumn nights and winter temperatures, while the temperature change trends for other seasons were more evident in lower elevation areas. The varying temperature change trends as regulated by elevation implies that temperate grasslands have experienced a more rapid temperature change than alpine grasslands during the past decade.     

Measurements by airplane of electric charge passing vertically through thunderstorms to ground

Summary The electric current passing vertically through thunderstorms has been measured above the thunderheads with apparatus mounted on a B-29 airplane. The direction of the resulting current, in all cases, was such as to maintain the negative charge found over the fair-weather region of the earth. The average magnitude of the current per storm was one ampere, an amount required of the average storm if the fair-weather charge is to be maintained through thunderstorm activity. Other results obtained are summarized at the end of the article.

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Zusammenfassung Der elektrische Strom, der vertikal durch Gewitter fließt, wurde oberhalb der Gewitterwolken mit Apparaten gemessen, die auf einem B-29-Flugzeug montiert waren. Der resultierende Strom war in allen Fällen so gerichtet, daß er die negative Ladung über dem Schönwettergebiet der Erde zu erhalten sucht. Die mittlere Stromstärke pro Gewitter betrug 1 Amp., welcher Durchschnittsbetrag gerade erforderlich ist, um die Schönwetterladung durch Gewittertätigkeit aufrechtzuerhalten. Weitere Ergebnisse sind am Ende des Aufsatzes zusammengefaßt.

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Résumé On a mesuré à l'aide d'appareils montés sur un avion B-29 le courant électrique vertical issu des nuages orageux, au-dessus de ceux-ci. La direction du courant résultant était toujours telle qu'il tendait à maintenir la charge négative au-dessus de la région de beau temps de la terre. L'intensité moyenne par orage était de un ampère, valeur précisément nécessaire pour maintenir la charge de beau temps par l'activité orageuse. D'autres résultats sont résumés à la fin de l'article.

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With 3 figures.

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Dedicated to Professor Dr.H. Benndorf on the occasion of his eightieth birthday.     

大连地区雷暴时空变化特征及其严重年大气环流背景分析

利用1961—2013年大连地区3测站逐日地面雷暴观测资料及1948—2016年NCEP/NCAR再分析月平均资料,采用线性趋势估计和合成分析方法分析了大连地区雷暴日数的时间和空间分布规律,并进一步探讨雷暴严重年5—9月平均大气环流背景特征。结果表明:大连地区雷暴具有明显的地域特征,空间分布主要呈现北部内陆地区多,南部沿海地区少的特点;除2月外,各地其余月份均可发生雷暴,7月和8月达到高峰值,雷暴集中发生在5—9月,雷暴具有较强的季节性,夏季6—8月最多,冬季很少出现雷暴;年平均雷暴日数总体呈减少趋势,其中北部的减少趋势尤为显著;雷暴初日多出现在4月,终日多出现在10月,初日较终日稳定,无论初日和终日均以北部地区较南部地区稳定,各地雷暴初日显著提前,终日推迟不显著,但仅有大连终日推迟趋势显著;雷暴初日和终日北部地区对应的候平均气温阈值分别为-1℃和10℃,南部(东部)地区对应的候平均气温阈值分别为6℃(-1℃)和3℃(8℃);多雷暴年,高层500 hPa蒙古低涡异常偏强,副热带高压偏西偏北,低层850 hPa偏南风水汽输送和大连上空整层垂直上升运动均异常偏强,这些有利于雷暴日数的增多,而少雷暴年与多雷暴年特征基本相反。     

Correction to: The contributions of fronts,lows and thunderstorms to southern Australian rainfall

Climate Dynamics - In the original published version of the paper, the figures reported in Sect. 4 relating the proportion of rainfall in southern Australia that is due to each of the...     

Some aspects of the correlation between lightning and rain activities in thunderstorms

The lightning activity of convective systems is a sometimes fruitful indicator of their precipitation production. The present study compares rain volume with different types of lightning activity in several convective systems. The study uses data obtained in the Paris area where two lightning detection systems coexist. The Météorage network provides the location and the polarity of cloud-to-ground flashes, while the SAFIR system detects the total flash activity: cloud-to-ground, intra-cloud flashes and VHF individual sources within a given time window. The overall spatial correlation between rain and lightning appears to be very consistent for all lightning types. A pixel-to-pixel study shows that positive CG flashes are associated with higher rainwater volume than negative flashes. Introducing a weight coefficient for positive CG flashes considerably improves the correlation between rain amount and lightning production. Taking into account the specific contribution of each type of lightning flash, the amount of rain can be estimated from the total electrical activity of each system. Comparison with the amount derived from radar measurement shows reasonable agreement. Finally, the parallel time evolutions of rain and lightning rates display quite similar characteristics.